Fantasy Baseball Advice

Now that I’m done recapping 2008 fantasy baseball rankings. Straight done recapping! It’s time to look at the 2008 top 20 rookie pitchers. Unlike with the top 20 rookie hitters of 2008, where I expressed a case of rookie nookie, the pitchers bring a lot more risk and I’m more hesitant to go near these guys. A rookie hitter goes 0-for-30 — oh well, drop him. A rookie pitcher goes 2 innings, giving up seven runs, and he can kill your ERA and WHIP for a week. That’s not to say I didn’t own any of these guys; I did. I’m just much more careful about them. If they’re not supplying Ks, I rarely touch them. Anyway, here’s the top 20 rookie pitchers of 2008:

20.  Nick Blackburn -  Honestly, I could’ve made this the top 14 pitchers of 2008 and you wouldn’t have lost much.  Final Numbers: 11-11/4.05/1.36/96 in 193.1 IP

19.  Scott Lewis - Only pitched 24 IP so he could make the list again in 2009. Those twenty-four innings came in 4 starts where he went… Final Numbers:  4-0/2.63/1.08/15 in 24 IP

18.  Masahide Kobayashi - I almost placed Aaron Laffey in this spot, but he was demoted after a solid April. If he had an awful April and a solid September, he might’ve made this list. Things that make you go hmm… Final Numbers:  4-5/4.53/1.42/35 in 55.2 IP

17.  Greg Smith - Out of 89 pitchers who pitched 160 innings, Greg Smith had the 89th worst run support at 2.88 runs per start.  On a contender, he could’ve been a contenda. Final Numbers:  7-16/4.16/1.35/111 in 190.1 IP

15.  Glen Perkins - 74 Ks in 151 innings? That’s a bad case of the blahs. Final Numbers:  12-4/4.41/1.47/74 in 151 IP

16.  Justin Masterson - Has the stuff/delivery for a middle man. Had the numbers of a successful middle man who had a few starts.  Final Numbers:  6-5/3.16/1.22/68 in 88.1 IP

14.  Johnny Cueto - Ah… The promise of rookie nookie and the unreliability of a roofie.  2008 might make Cueto one of the biggest fantasy bargains in 2009, but there will be plenty of time to talk about 2009.  Final Numbers:  9-14/4.81/1.41/158 in 174 IP

13.  Max Scherzer - Jobacum snowballed from a hot pickup to a minor leaguer to hot pickup.  BTW, I’m so spent on Jobacum puns I’m using snowballed.  We’ll need to have a “Please post your own Jobacum pun in the comments” post one of these days. Final Numbers:  0-4/3.05/1.23/66 in 56 IP

12.  Chris Volstad - His name sounds like he should be in a Bret Easton Ellis novel, his groundball rate was muy picante, but his K rate was muy mal. Final Numbers:  6-4/2.88/1.33/52 in 84.1 IP

11.  Clayton Kershaw - Kershaw reinforces the myth that someone with a K last name is more likely to strikeout hitters. This shizz is scientific. Final Numbers:  5-5/4.26/1.50/100 in 107.2 IP

10.  Joba Chamberlain - Somebody celebrated their top ten finish in Razzball’s top 20 rookie pitchers and went and got themselves locked up. Final Numbers:  4-3/2.60/1.26/118 in 100.1 IP

9. Jorge Campillo - For a time, Campillo filled in for Rich Hill on a bunch of my teams in 2008. But enough about me! Wait, it’s all about me, isn’t it? Final Numbers:  8-7/3.91/1.24/107 in 158.2 IP

8.  John Lannan - Not a great K rate and he’s on the Nats. What is the reason you didn’t have him on your fantasy team? Final Numbers: 9-15/3.91/1.34/117 in 182 IP

7.  Chris Perez - Save vulture says, Chris Perez is the closer. Swoop! Save vulture says, Izzy got the closing job back. Reverse swoop! Motte is the closer! I didn’t say, “Save vulture says.” Final Numbers:  3-3/3.46/1.34/42, 7 saves in 41.2 IP

6.  Joey Devine - If he gets the opportunity to be the A’s closer in 2009, I’ll be all over “Waking” Joey Devine like white on something very white, but not rice, cause that’s cliché. Final Numbers:  6-1/.59/.83/49, 1 save in 45.2 IP

5.  Hiroki Kuroda - I actually drafted this schmohawk in a ten team mixed league. Then I dropped him before the season started. Sometimes you’re the teacher, sometimes you’re the student and sometimes you’re the schmohawk. Final Numbers:  9-10/3.73/1.22/116 in 183.1 IP

4.  Jose Arrendondo - If dooode would’ve had ten more vulture wins, he would’ve had one of the best seasons ever, according to Elias Sports Bureau. Final Numbers:  10-2/1.62/1.05/55 in 61 IP

3.  Jair Jurrjens - Somehow I ended up with JJj on just about every team. Guess that’s what happens when you drafted Rich Hill and Harang in 2008. Yes, it still stings. Final Numbers:  13-10/3.68/1.37/139 in 188.1 IP

2.  Armando Galarraga -  Here’s a pitcher that I refused to believe in the entire season. His rates just were all a bit cock-eyed. So maybe I was wrong about not picking him up in 2008, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to be excited about him in 2009. Final Numbers:  13-7/3.73/1.19/126 in 178.2 IP

1.  Brad Ziegler - That he’s number one is more of an indictment on the rookie pitchers for 2008. (Edinson Volquez was not a rookie.) This is not to say Ziegler wasn’t flat-out bombilcious. Oh, he was. Whatever bombilious means. Final Numbers:  3-0/1.06/1.16/30, 11 saves in 59.2 IP

What’s the difference between the ‘Stros and Stroh’s beer? The beer has an H.  ‘Stros couldn’t manage one. While 110 pitches is a slight stretch for Zambrano given he had missed 2 starts to injury, that was just an exhibition game’s amount of work when Dusty was coaching him. If anyone could throw an 150 pitch no-hitter like the type we used to throw in Wiffle Ball, it was Zambrano. This was the first no-hitter for the Cubs since 1972 which was also the last year that they were within 65 years of a championship. Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

David Price - In a relief appearance today against the Yankees, David Price made his major league debut. He pitched 5 and 2/3 innings, gave up 2 ER (only one really, the other scored off Hammel after he left) and he looked impressive against a top-notch offense. He’s scheduled for one start on September 23rd against the Orioles. He’s worth the spot start and he might have some value as a middle reliever for AL-Only teams the rest of the year, but David Price’s real value is in keeper leagues and for next year.

Max Scherzer - 6 IP, 1 ER with 9 Ks. Scherzer took it to the Reds like he was McCarthy.

Andy LaRoche - 3-for-4, but they were all singles. It’ll be interesting to see if the Pirates give LaRoche a chance to play next spring. It’ll be even more interesting to see if Andy LaRoche can live up to his billing as the superior LaRoche brother. Our prediction is that their performance doesn’t get the Pittsburgh faithful singing “We Are Family” anytime soon.

Aaron Cook - 8 IP, 0 ER, might have some value down the stretch if you’re streaming starters. Cook’s usually a pretty reliable, just above average pitcher.

Kevin Gregg - Pulled after pitching to one batter in the ninth. Lindstrom’s still the closer, he was just overworked. Gregg’s about as likely to take over the closer role again as the Marlins are to having a Fidel Castro Bobblehead Doll Day.

Phil Hughes - Will get the start this Wednesday against the White Sox. That doesn’t mean he needs to be on your team.

Vladimir Guerrero - Will sit out three to four games this week. I told you to drop Vlad the other day.

Andre Ethier - Missed the last two games of the Rockies series because his wife is giving birth. Will return to the team on Monday. Why isn’t Juan Pierre helping Ethier’s wife with Lamaze? Or freakin’ James Loney.

Nick Markakis - I am Sparkakis! No, I am Sparkakis!

Oscar Salazar - 2 HRs. Who? Some total schmohawk, but he also went deep on Saturday. These last two days are surely aberrations (Word of the Day), but if he puts some aberrations together to turn them into regulariocities (Made Up Word of the Day), then you might want to grab him in H2H leagues.

Radhames Liz - 8 IP, 0 ER. Not an option in any league. Unless you’re in a league where your pitchers’ first names have to sound like an expensive condom.

Nick Blackburn - 4 IP, 6 ER. His last name and strikeout totals make him sound like a Pirate. He’s not, he’s a Twin and he has excellent command, which makes him yawnstipating but effective.

Oliver Perez - 7 IP, 2 ER. So consistently inconsistent that it was only fitting that the Mets’ consistently inconsistent bullpen blew his chance at a win.

Luis Ayala - Blew a big game for the Mets. The kind of game that pundits point to as the one that got away. Obviously no one ever told pundits it’s impolite to point. The blown save and breach of etiquette caused Billy Wagner to cry again.

Cameron Maybin - Will be called up on Monday. Could be cheap steals if the Marlins play him. SAGNOF.

Matt Garza - Will start on three days rest on Wednesday. This isn’t great news. He had a nice rhythm going where he was good every other start. This move might throw off his rhythm.

Jeremy Sowers - In three innings, Sowers gave up 3 ER on 75 pitches. Or about half as many pitches Lincecum threw in a shutout on Saturday.

Justin Upton - HR yesterday that went about 450 feet to straightaway center. I’ll be getting excited about this guy in the offseason.

Shane Victorino - HR in the first game, 4-for-4 in the second game. The Flyin’ Hawaiian got his wings back.

Brett Myers - 9 IP, 1 ER and only 2 hits. Afterwards, Brett felt really bad saying he didn’t mean two-hitter.

Yesterday, I went over some fantasy baseball hitters to grab. Today, we look at some below the radar pitchers. (Of course, it depends on your league size on whether these schmohawks are above or below the radar. As that cliché goes, your trash is someone else’s wife.) If I were you, this would probably be a very helpful post for me. Why, Grey? Please explain. Okay, general reader of this site, I don’t draft pitching high in any league. My first pitcher off the board in one ‘pert league was Aaron Harang. Nuts, you say? Nuts indeed. And this was a fifteen team league, so you can imagine the slim pickings on waivers. Well, currently I’m at a 13 in ERA, 11 in WHIP and a 14 in saves. Wins have been a pain at 5.5 and I’m at 7 in Ks. (Honestly, I’ve seen that the least read posts on this site have been about the leagues Rudy and I are in, so I won’t bore you much longer, just bear with me.) So you’re thinking Harang first? Hmm… You must’ve had some kick-ass 2nd and 3rd and 4th pitchers off the board. 2nd pitcher was Rich Hill, 3rd Wainwright, 4th Edinson Volquez, then Chuck James and that’s it. Seriously, I should be in last place with that pitching staff. But I’ve ridden hard and put away wet Jorge Campillo, Jeremy Guthrie, Mark Buerhle and an array of spot starters. Then very recently I traded for Big Z to try and close the Ks and Wins a bit. So, as you see, pitching can be had in deep leagues, you just need to know where to look. Anyway, here’s some fantasy baseball pitchers to Buy and Sell:

BUY

Jorge Campillo - Probably gone by this time, but I told you to get Campillo in May. If your trigger finger is like Don Knotts in The Shakiest Gun in the West, this is not my fault. (BTW, In the same post, I told you to stay away from VMart. Zapow!)

Jeremy Guthrie - Again, he’s probably gone by now, but I told you to get him when Rich Hill and Gallardo collapsed on May 4th.

Braden Looper - Bad July, but he’s been consistently good one month then bad for one month for the whole year. ERAs respectively from April — 3.86, 6.37, 2.92, 4.82 and so far 2.57 in August. Does this make any logical sense? Yours is not to reason why, yours is to start Looper and hope he drives in Pujols.

Gil Meche - When you look at his numbers in November, you’ll think about how his season wasn’t that great. Well, this would be true, but he can be good for two months in the middle of a lame season. He’s in the middle of those two months.

Ricky Nolasco - 13 K game the other day probably snatched him off of waivers in every league, but in case it didn’t, here’s Nolasco. Now who are you gonna call? Maroone!

Matt Garza - Has this every other start thing going where he’s good in one start then poor in the next. If he stays true to it, you can make it work for you. Stay true, Garza, stay true… And I’ll start you… There’s a country ditty for ya’ll.

SELL

Paul Maholm - This guy is showing up on a lot of people’s “I’m a ‘pert and I’m telling to get this guy” list. Phooey to them. It’s effin’ Paul Maholm, people! Unless I’m looking at him in an NL-Only league, I’m yawnstipated.

Jamie Moyer - He threw a pitch last week that just made it to the catcher.

Armando Galarraga - On my tombstone it will say, “I told you I was ill. And don’t pickup Armando Galarraga.”

Oliver Perez - Here’s the thing with Ollie Perez, he can absolutely wreck havoc on your ratios. Bah!

Jeff Karstens - Ha! Seriously. Ha! Here’s a rule of thumb for you, for those that like thumb rules: Pirates pitchers should not be picked up until they have shown they can pitch well for an entire year.

Nick Blackburn - His K rate is abysmal for the last month or so. I could list more reasons, but trust me, that’s reason enough to look away.

Aaron Cook - I told you I would warn you when I got out. Consider yourself warned, boyz!

Dave Bush - This is one Bush I will not have a hand in.

How is it that the more money you make, the more money is guaranteed? You don’t see anyone tying someone up with a contract to wait tables at The Cheesecake Factory for $10/hour for six months. Even if they go four weeks without spilling a tray and have what is deemed a “career month!” There’s no Olive Garden Out Clause. There’s no guaranteed Buffalo Chicken Salad Lunch Clause. There’s no free travel. Most times there’s no free parking. There’s no free translator for bus boys. Granted, the bus boys don’t conduct too many interviews where a translator might be need, but still. So why when someone has a career year are they then given $30 million? I’ve met Byrnes’s agent. He’s not that smooth. (Sorry, Mike!) I don’t think even the most novice fantasy baseball owner fell for Byrnes’s 2007. But the D-backs sure did. /rant BTW, Byrnes hit the DL yesterday.  Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday:

Jay Bruce - Not a bad… *pinkie to mouth* intro’brucing. Now if I may acronymize Bruce properly, JB looks better than JC, but not as good as JV. As long as DB continues to start him over CP, we’ll be OK.

Ian Stewart - It’s impossible to say Ian Stewart without using a Sean Connery accent. My name is Ee-yon Shtew-art. Well, Ee-yon Shtew-art started yesterday at 2nd Base. I’m pretty sure if he gets 2nd base eligibility he’s going to be better than your 2nd basemen or at least MI. Or not, but he’s definitely worth a look if he has 2nd base eligibility.

Johnny Cueto - This is the last update for JC until he pitches well again. Cueto and I are on a break. I see no reason to update everyone on his struggles. You think Kershaw’s going to be unhittable? Look at Parra, Cueto and Volquez. You got one out of three and Volquez has a WHIP and a history of wildness that says his success won’t continue. Grab Kershaw off of waivers then trade him immediately for a piece that you need.

Ian Snell - What the Snell! Snell, the Funky Homosapien wasn’t even (Snell) close on a lot of his pitches. I wouldn’t start him right now in a 32 deep NL-Only league. Snell ya later, Ian.

Sean Gallagher - Not only is he pitching better than Rich Hill (1 ER & 4H in 7 IP), but he’s a better guy in the clubhouse. Nothing loosens up a team like a mallet to a watermelon.

Tim Hudson - Rudy and I disagreed on Hudson’s worth. I say he’s a solid #2 with plus ERA, WHIP, Wins and minus Ks. Rudy calls Hudson a solid #3. Tomato-whatever, Hudson’s on a lot of my teams and he’s more valuable on my team than he is in a trade. So there.

Franklin Gutierrez - The Big FraGu hit a grand slam yesterday.

Ben Francisco - I mentioned him a bunch when he first got called up saying he could go 15/15. (And that’s me paraphrasing myself!) Now Francisco is batting third because he’s the only one consistently hitting on the Indians team. If he continues to hit and the Indians get hot, he could stay in the three hole for a while. These are all hypotheticals, of course. But you just never know. Full disclosure: I dropped Griffey from one team for Francisco.

Ryan Spilborghs - Batting fifth. Another home run. I guess you don’t need that.

Josh Hamilton - You sniff blow? Hell no, I got my whole season ahead of me, no time to be sniffin’. If Kinsler finds out, then he’ll start riffin’.

Jason Giambi - Up to ten home runs and .238. Jeremy Giambi up to no good. The Super Giambi Bros. are plumbers and they have to save the princess. And here’s Cousin Oliver Giambi playing the theme song.

Shawn Hill - Thank God (for me), Hill decided to give up nine runners in three innings against the Padres. I wouldn’t be surprised to find Hill on the DL by next week, but ya know I like him.

Daisuke Matsuzaka - Left after 4 innings (and no BB?!?!) with an injury to his side. Looks like someone skipped his pre-game calisthenics. No word yet on the severity of the injury. If Dice-K goes to the DL, Clay Buchholz will rejoin the rotation.

Matt Diaz - Die-as to the Dee-eL. Maybe he’ll return with a newfound vigor. He sure won’t be returning to my team.

AJ Burnett - Just like his mom Carol, he loves to put on a variety show. You like K’s. You got it. You like 2 out rallies started by the #9 hitter. Can do.

Ervin Santana - A gem of a game. 9 IP. 3 base runners. 7 Ks. Somehow the Angels managed to score a whooping 3 runs for the win. While his last 3 starts were ugly on the ERA, his K’s remained (19 in 3 games). I’ll take Santana over Saunders or Garland.

Tim Lincecum - Now 7-1. On the Giants. How awkward must it be between him and Zito? Barry, don’t worry about it. I’m lucky. They give me more run support. Yeah, that’s the reason. You’re so much better than me at making hitters put the ball in play.

Braden Looper - 7 ER in 4 1/3 IP. Think of a word that rhymes with Looper and it describes his performances. Betcha it isn’t super.

Julio Lugo - Was ejected arguing balls and strikes. As anyone who has ever dated a Catholic can tell you, you can’t argue your way to first.

Nick Blackburn - Not a lot of K’s (4.5/9 IP), not a lot of BB (1.5/9 IP). If you were Minnesota dreamin’ for Brad Radke, look no further.

Mariano Rivera - 22 IP, 1 W, 12 SV, 20 Ks, 1 Earned Run, 1 Walk. We’re speechless.

NY Mets - Yeah, it’s all Willie Randolph’s fault. Here’s the 5th to 8th hitters yesterday for the Mets: 1B Damion Easley, RF Fernando Tatis, C Ramon Castro, LF Nick Evans. Too bad they couldn’t work in Brian Schneider. Great GM-work Omar Minaya. Mets fans, stop riding the Yankee 2b of our childhood. Willie’s got a great ’stache! Oh, one more note. Minaya once traded Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, and Cliff Lee for Bartolo Colon. Good thing Minaya wasn’t around a couple years ago. He would’ve traded Reyes and Wright to the Orioles for Sidney Ponson and a pulled pork sandwich from Boog’s BBQ in right field, which would’ve been promptly eaten by Sidney Ponson. Case closed!

It’s with no regret that I announce (Well, I’m not exactly announcing it. The Brewers are, but bear with me.) that Eric Gagne is no longer the closer. Officially, the Brewers say it’s a mental break. I say, it’s a “You can’t take steroids anymore and the Brewers should’ve never acquired him in the first place” break. On Friday, I told you I think Salomon Torres will walk away with a large chunk of saves. If he’s gone, as a speculation on Gagne’s replacement, you have to grab Mota or Riske. Grab everyone basically, even Shouse, if you need saves. I think Gagne will be eventually back closing for the Brewers and he’ll get five or six more saves before he undoubtably needs another mental break. Guess now he’ll have time to tuck in his shirt. Anyway, here’s what else I (and others) saw yesterday:

Johnny Cueto - I missed the Mets game because I was hungover and needed to submerge my head into a tub of ice. So I put Rudy on the case, here’s what he said over IM, “Castillo got a gift triple in the first which led to 3 runs, but they were crushing Cueto in the first 2 IP. Then 2 innings were fine. Then a bullshit infield single for Castillo. K’d Wright. Then hung a curve that Beltran hit into orbit. No great story other than Cueto’s stuff is good, but remains a risky bet. I wish I traded him to you instead of Zach Attack. Parra’s unstartable, but I’m starting Cueto outside of Colorado. BTW, you’re the greatest writer in the history of blogs. In fact, blogs should be renamed to Glegs, which is a portmanteau (Word of the Day).”  Thanks, Rudy.

Brian Bannister - I was vomiting blood during this game, so I turned to my Uncle Yitz, who lives in KC, “Bannister is luckier than a blind man in a braille store.” Thanks, Uncle Yitz.

Carl Crawford - Blood turned to phlegm so I let Momma Grey write this one for Mother’s Day, “Carl who? Is that our mailman?” “Maybe you’re thinking of Karl Malone.” “Karl Malone is our mailman’s name?” Thanks, Mom! I still believe Crawford gets over 20 home runs and I’d trade for ‘our mailman’ in a second.

Ryan Braun - Everyone’s well aware of my stance on Braun, but he did hit two home runs yesterday. I say sell, but you do what you do.

Shawn Hill - Still not getting Ks or Ws like I’d want, but in deep leagues, you can do a lot worse. Actually, in shallow leagues you could do worse.

Khalil Greene - Been a buy low candidate for me for about a month. He is what he is, which is 25 home runs. If you like that sort of thing, you’ll enjoy KG.

Santiago Casilla - Finally gave up some runs, but he just got another win. Listen, when it’s time to bail, I’ll give you a heads up, but fantasy baseball is like a craps table. When the table’s hot, ride the effin’ table. When the table’s cold, go to a strip club.

Jonathan Broxton - I know you want to drop him quickfast. I think that’s being too reactionary. He recently had problems with his lat muscle, so he might not be himself. Bench him for a few days to see if yesterday’s outing was a one time bludgeoning or if you need to do a mercy killing.

Justin Speier - Not sure if anyone’s on this train wreck, but you need to get off, you ain’t ‘Unbreakable.’

Ervin Santana - Missed this game because my girlfriend was administering an IV, but his final line surprises me less than his first month of stats, if that makes sense — sweet!

Dan Uggla - If he hits forty, he’s worth the average. Otherwise, I’m not a fan. BTW, missed this game because I needed to be rushed to the hospital.

Nick Blackburn - Returned from the hospital in time to see this game. Honestly, I’m not buying into this guy. He seems usable with the right match-ups, but not on any of my teams. Not right now. Now I’m going to down an aspirin, a Bloody Mary and a ‘lude and hope this hangover goes away. Remind me not to drink again.