As I begin to prepare my projections and rankings for the 2017 season, I like to look back on the previous season’s attempt to not only assess my work, but also to learn how I can do better next time. Projecting statistics in any sport is a tedious and arduous task. The variables, formulas and algorithms are constantly changing and if you don’t adapt with them, your results will lose their precision and accuracy. However, I’d like to make one point blatantly clear, projections are nothing more than calculated guesses. Some are better than the next, but none are even close to perfect.

Let’s see how I fared with my 2016 efforts. For all positions I will provide the following six numbers: projected points, actual points, projected rank, actual rank, projected points per plate appearance and actual points per plate appearance. I am including points per plate appearance because it helps put a player’s projections vs performance into perspective when they’ve missing time due to injury. For pitchers I’ve replaced points per plate appearance with points per start. I’ve also included a column showing the percentage by which my points projections were off. Any player with an “n/a” listed in this column is because that player spent at least 30 days on the disabled list.

Lastly, a quick note about the rankings listed in this post. These rankings are based purely on points. This season I plan to provide additional rankings that allow me to adjust them based on three important factors: intuition, gut and my sporadic conversations with Nostradumass.

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One word about this top 100 for 2017 fantasy baseball, before I give you another 5,000 words.  I’m going to avoid repeating myself from the position rankings in the 2017 fantasy baseball rankings.  If you want to know my in-depth feelings about a player, then you need to go to his positional page, i.e., the top 20 1st basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball, the top 20 outfielders for 2017 fantasy baseball, the top 20 Gucci handbags for 2017– Ah, I almost got you.  This post is meant to give you an idea where guys from different positions are in relation to each other.  Since this post is only the top 100, there’s more players where this came from.  416 more, to be very exact.  Next up, there will be a top 500 that will go to 516.  Then, after that, there will be a top 7,500, then a top 25,000, then a top 600,000, until we end up with a top kajillion in April.  Or maybe I’ll stop at the top 500.  Yeah, that makes sense.  Not to get all biblical on you, but this is the gospel.  Print it out and take it to Mt. Sinai and it will say, “Win your 2017 fantasy baseball league, young prematurely balding man.”  Projections were done by me and a crack team of 100 monkeys fighting amongst themselves because there were only 99 typewriters.  Somebody please buy Ling-Ling his own typewriter!  Anyway, here’s the top 100 for 2017 fantasy baseball:

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In an incredible turn of events, I’ve done all the infield 2017 fantasy baseball rankings.  Less incredible, you’ve read them all.  It’s like that time your favorite team won because they played better than that other team but you convinced yourself they won because you cheered loudly.  When I win the Fantasy Baseball Blogger of the Millennial in 2099, and my frozen head is accepting the award, I’m going to thank you, the readers, but I’m secretly going to be thanking myself.  Without me, none of this would be possible.  You’re a close second though!  Okay, enough ranking you and me, let’s rank some outfielders!  Last year, there was one outfielder I said I didn’t want in the top 20, Andrew McClutchin’ His Knee.  This year, well, let’s save it for the post!  All my projections are listed by the players and where I see tiers starting and stopping.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2017 fantasy baseball:

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Greetings, friends. I hopped over to the football side of things once last year’s baseball season ended, but now I’m back. And apparently, I am such a disturbed individual that I am doing fantasy baseball mock drafts in early January. And, I am writing about them. And, well, I just wanted to start another sentence with and because it feels so wrong but so right at the same time. Anyway, moving on.

I was fortunate enough to be invited to the Couch Managers 2017 Industry Mock Draft, and we’re going to recap it here. This mock was for a 15-team, 5×5 roto, with 23 roster spots made up of 9 pitchers (9), 1 spot for each position (8), a second catcher (1), 2 more outfielders (2), one corner infielder (1), one middle infielder (1), and one utility position (1). As long as I did that math correctly, that is 23 spots.

Below, I will provide the results for the first six rounds and a give my thoughts for each round. I’ll do the same for rounds 7-12, 13-18, and 19-23 in subsequent posts. I’ll try to keep it brief. All we really care about are the results here, right? Feel free to tell me how awesome or crappy you think my team is, along with what you think were the best and worst picks of the draft or the different rounds…

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Went over the catchers1st basemen2nd basemen and shortstops and top 20 3rd basemen for 2016 fantasy baseball.  Guess what’s next!  No, not pitchers. Read the title, man.  In 2010, there were only 5 outfielders that hit 30 homers, in 2011 there were 9, 14 in 2012, in 2013 there were 3, a small bounce back with 6 in 2014 and last year there were eight.  This year:  less than you likely think.  The infield had a ton of homers.  Outfield was decent, solid, thesaurus word.  Was it the best home run count since 2010?  No, actually, it wasn’t.  It was the 2nd best.  11 outfielders hit 30 homers.  If you were to include outfielders that hit 29 homers, that shoots up to 15.  Also, there were 35 outfielders who hit 20 homers; last year, there was 24.  As for steals, there were 14 outfielders who stole 30 bases in 2012, 10 in 2013, 11 in 2014, and only five outfielders who stole 30 bases (only seven players total) last year.  This year:  seven outfielders stole 30 and 14 overall.  Hello, offense, my old friend.  As before, these rankings are from our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater with my comments.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2016 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

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On Sunday morning, I woke around 8 AM to read a text from Rudy saying, “Awful news, Jose Fernandez was killed in a boating accident.”  I put on my glasses, no time for contacts, and turned on the TV.  It was still on Fox Sports West because I was watching Vin Scully tributes all weekend.  Yesterday morning, Fox Sports was playing Anglers Chronicles, a fishing show, which is wrong in so many ways.  After switching the stations, groggy-eyed and still half asleep, I realized TV was not the place anymore to go for breaking news.  I shut it off and turned to the internet.  I’m still piecing together my thoughts.  He was 24 years old, even if he never played baseball this is a horrible loss of life.  I’m reminded of all the friends I lost to motorcycles in their twenties.  I’m struck by how inconsequential fantasy feels.  There’s a giant pit in my stomach.  Then, I think about how I never saw Jose Fernandez not smiling.  Not having fun.  I think about how on that boat, Saturday evening, you know Jose Fernandez was having a great time, because he was always having a great time.  That exuberance came through in everything he did.  I think about how he spent time in prison after one of his numerous failed attempts of escaping Cuba, and how, even then, he was likely making fellow inmates smile.  How the excellence he brought to the mound every fifth day was felt all the way back in Cuba to raise up even the darkest corners of Cuba’s prisons.  “That was us.  That is us,” the inmates, who are still incarcerated for trying to escape, likely said.  How baseball does that.  How special that is.  You see what you’re going to see in tragedy, but I see Jose Fernandez pitching, and baseball, and making himself and others smile.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

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Well look who’s here…Yep, I’m talking to you. It’s Sunday and we’re both building daily baseball lineups while everyone else is in a fever pitch about the NFL. You know what? I’m more than okay with that. We can start our own support group on Sundays. You know, just the handful of us left that still care about the best game on Earth. We can also talk about how distressed we are about Brad and Angelina. Your choice, really. I’m open to discussing anything. I need friends actually. Like real friends, not the internet kind. At least that’s what my therapist (Mom) tells me every morning. So hit me up on Myspace and we can hangout sometime. Anyway, let’s get back on track. I’m going big with pitching today and by big I’m talking about the Astros 6’5″, 238 lb strapping right-hander – Joe Musgrove. At first glance you’re probably saying “Honcho…The Angels don’t strike out enough?!” True, they’re a high-contact team, but they’re below league average in just about every other category. Over the last 14 days, they’ve been impossibly inept. How bad you ask? Well, they’re hitting just .219 with a .296 OBP and they’ve produced a .323 slugging percentage. That’s bad. On top of that heaping mess Mike Sciosia’s bunch has put up a .274 wOBA and 73 wRC+. That’s gross. I’m not worried about the lack of Ks either – mainly due to the respectable 8.35 K/9 Musgrove’s produced thus far. Add in the fact that he’s allowed three or fewer runs in each of his past three starts and he owns a nifty 51:16 K:BB in 55 innings this year and we have the makings of a sneaky starter. Oh yeah, he’s only $7,100 today. So that helps. So there you have it, I’m with Musgrove. Here’s a look at the rest of my suggestions for Sunday’s slate:

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well reserve your spot in the 25 Team Razzball Exclusive League set to run Monday September 26th to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. Wanna know what the best part is about signing up with us? The free subscription for the rest of the season to our DFSBot, that’s what! For details on the how to, please visit our Razzball Subscriptions page.

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Mets outfielder Michael Conforto was 2-for-3 last night, scoring two runs with his 12th home run, and three RBI. Could this be the start of something big? Who’s Conforto, you ask? Lol, you pleb–Don’t you know anything? He’s just an uber prospect for the New York Mets.  *Sips cold brew coffee, adjust horn rimmed glasses, strokes beard* Sigh. You’ve probably never heard of him. Have I mentioned he’s the hipster’s favorite player? Do I really have to mention that? The man hit .365 with four homers, 11 doubles and 18 RBI in April, then completely fell of the planet. He was busy working on his documentary film/visual novel/app for dogs. Sitting in an abandoned warehouse turned secret speakeasy/corn hole arena/craft cider house/live-bluegrass music cafe, I sip my gluten-free organic cold brew coffee (cage-free beans, obv) and curl my finely waxed mustache, pondering what life would be like with a fantasy baseball championship. I put down my Gabriel García Márquez book (I only read South American novelists), let my hair free out of its man-bun, and realize that Michael Conforto could be the key to everything. All that magical realism is really paying off! Sure, he struggled mightily all year, and sure, Jay Bruce threatens to steal some of his playing time. But Bruce is also 2-for-31 (.065 BA) in the past two weeks, and Conforto’s got all the upside. If I were you, and I’m not, because I’m obviously way hipper than you, I’d grab Michael Conforto, who’s available in about 90% of fantasy leagues, before he gets hot. In fact, this could only make you cooler because when he does finally break out, that means you picked him up before he was cool. And there’s nothing cooler than that!

Here’s what else happened in fantasy baseball Friday night:

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Tuesday doesn’t mark the 2016 Presidential Election, but there is no doubt a clear choice at starting pitcher tonight. The Cubs, who recently clinched the NL Central Division, are sailing into the playoffs and their horse – Jon Lester – continues to lead the way. Lester has been worth every single penny that the Cubs have paid him to date. He is coming off an eight inning, eight strikeout performance against the Cardinals and has given up just one run in his last four starts. On top of that, Lester is averaging 23.5 points per start at home this season with two complete games. The Reds pose no threat to Lester on Tuesday night and he will likely be the highest owned starter in cash games. Don’t let that make you shy away. Pivoting away from Lester could prove to be disastrous.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well reserve your spot in the 25 Team Razzball Exclusive League set to run Monday September 26th to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. Wanna know what the best part is about signing up with us? The free subscription for the rest of the season to our DFSBot, that’s what! For details on the how to, please visit our Razzball Subscriptions page.

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I know Grey already touched on the huge Starting Pitching casualties from this weekend, but man I got a swift kick in the nuts losing both Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco for the year, so please forgive me as my wounds are still fresh. I had a ton of stock in Mets pitching this year, I was drafting Thor, deGrom and Steven Matz where ever I could thinking that they would have monster second halves in the weaker NL East, propelling me to multiple Championships through the dog days of the season. We had a few bumps in the road, but for the most part things were clicking, when Thor was off, deGrom was on, when deGrom was off then Matz was on and so on. Things were touch and go there for a few weeks as Noah looked like he was going to hit the DL around the All Star break, Matz was battling the elbow spurs and deGrom was steady, but not dominate. Then the wheels just fell off, everything went to Shizz and now here we are with Thor being the last man standing in the Mets rotation. I would like to initiate an investigation into the cause of bone spurs in the elbows of Mets pitchers, there’s has to be an alternate explanation as to why every single guy in that rotation is dealing with similar ailments. I know that there’s certain Pizzeria’s here in LA that will fly in NY water to make an authentic New York pie, so if we shipped water from the Beartooth Mountains in Wyoming to the Mets clubhouse would that solve the problem? Do we need to start a Go Fund Me page so we don’t lose our stud Mets pitchers to the bone spurred infected New York drinking water? Enough conspiracy theories for today, but I wanted to document it just in case it becomes a “thing” like #JonSnowIsWinter. Noah Syndergaard, $11,600 has a great home matchup vs the Braves tonight and he is back to swinging around his hammer full of K’s with authority. Over his last six games he’s 4-1 with a 1.37 ERA while racking up 42 Ks in 39.2 innings of work, yep I’d say he’s finishing the season strong. With Madison Bumgarner, $12,600 and Clayton Kershaw, $12,600 facing off I think the majority of people will be rostering Madbum due to the Dodgers awful numbers versus LHP. Now that we got Thor locked in, let’s take a look at the rest of the ideal matchups for our DK dominance.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well reserve your spot in the 25 Team Razzball Exclusive League set to run today to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. Wanna know what the best part is about signing up with us? The free subscription for the rest of the season to our DFSBot, that’s what! For details on the how to, please visit our Razzball Subscriptions page.

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