Fantasy Baseball Advice

Duffy The Ligament Slayer

May 15, 2012 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 570 Comments →

The Royals physician diagnosed Danny Duffy with a torn UCL, which would mean Tommy John surgery.  In related news, Dr. James Andrews is filing a trademark lawsuit, saying he’s the only doctor that can shut down pitchers for longer than 60 days.  In sorta related news, Francisco Liriano is still waiting to come back.  In unrelated news, when Dr. James Andrews opens his milk, it goes bad immediately, then is good again in 280 to 360 days.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Dee Gordon – 1-for-4 as he hits .212.  I’m not pointing any fingers, but the ‘perts over at Yahoo owe some of you an apology for how high they ranked Gordon.  Tell them Grey, the ‘pert who told you to avoid Grandy and the .400 hitting Wright, sent you for an apology.  Write it in blood, Pianowski!  Elian Herrera was called up to replace the recently DL’d Juan Uribe.  In the minors, Elian was returned to Cuba to live with his father and now he feeds Castro grapes.  *checking notes*  Totally wrong Elian, mea culpa, my Latin American friends!  Herrera has crazy speed (33 steals in Double-A last year; 9 steals in 28 games this year).  He just ran into your room, tied your shoes together and ran out without you knowing.  Look down.  See?  For now, Herrera will play all around the field, but there’s rumors that he will take some playing time away from Gordon.  Mattingly said he doesn’t think Gordon needs to be sent down to the minors.  Okay, but it’s not good when it’s being discussed that a player might be sent down.  For now, I’d only grab Elian in NL-Only leagues, but it’s worth monitoring.  I’d continue to hold Gordon, but you might have to start figuring out a contingency plan.  Like standing outside of Dale Sveum’s house reciting reasons why Campana should get shortstop eligibility.  That would be one contingency plan.  Here’s your thinking.  Here’s the box.  Your thinking is not in the box, is it?

Matt Kemp – Headed to the DL with a hamstring strain.  Here’s some shorthand for, y’all.  When a player says under no uncertain terms that he will not land on the DL, petition your league manager to make him DL-eligible.  Kemp shouldn’t miss more than 15 days.  Yesterday, Bobby Abreu hit 3rd for the Dodgers in Kemp’s absence.  Lineups don’t get much ethier than that.  Lisper!

Desmond Jennings – On May 6th, he left a game with knee soreness.  The Rays said it wasn’t a big deal.  On May 7th, I said it was a big deal when a player needed to be lifted mid-game.  Now, over a week later, the Rays are putting Jennings on the DL after using him as a pinch hitter on Friday.  So he’ll be out another two weeks.  Is it too much to ask a team to not pinch hit a guy when he might need to go on the DL?  How is this ever a good idea?   Rhetorical!

Jeff Niemann – He’ll be out a few months after a comebacker fractured his fibula.  No lie.

Miguel Batista – 7 shutout innings against the Brewers.  Look who learned something at Dave Duncan sleepaway camp!

Brad Lincoln – 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 3 Ks with his third win as he outpitched Anibal Sanchez (7 IP, 3 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks).  FMFBBL!  Lincoln hasn’t been good for ellipse ever.   His K-rate is inflated because he was working in the bullpen and he’s on the Pirates.  Outside of NL-Only leagues, I wouldn’t go near him.

Daniel Nava – 1-for-2 with a homer.  He’s now 5 for his last 10 with 5 runs, 5 RBIs and a steal.  Here’s a short refresher about Nava.  He didn’t make his college team, worked as their equipment manager, finally played college ball, going undrafted in the major league draft then was cut by the Chico Outlaws, which I believe is the minor league affiliate for Chico’s Bail Bonds.  Maybe it’s all a ruse and Nava is a great prospect, who’s in the Witness Protection Program.  Just to be safe, he should have Marlon Byrd start his car for him.  For now, I’d grab him because he’s swinging a hot bat, but I wouldn’t expect much, even if that would make the perfect Nava script.

Brandon Morrow – 5 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks and 5 unearned runs.  Holy ticker shock!

Bryce Harper – 1-for-4 as he hit his first homer.  After the homer, the Padres skipper tried to get it reversed, arguing there was too much pine tar under Harper’s eyes.

Ross Detwiler – 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks vs. the Padres.  Ross, I would’ve been impressed with less runs.  I don’t know why the pitchers I stream can’t put on their big boy pants.  I should’ve went with Brad Lincoln.  It’s all about the Lincolns!

Henry Rodriguez – 1/3 IP, 3 BBs.  Before yesterday’s game, Davey Johnson said HanK-Rod is still the Nats closer.  After the game, Davey didn’t have to say anything.  Clippard could see some saves, Burnett might see a situational save or two, and Rodriguez, well, it was an okay run.

Bryan LaHair – 3-for-4 with a slam (#9) and legs (#1).  Shhh, don’t tell him that this is all a dream.  Just glad someone benefited from the movie, Inception.

Josh Reddick – 1-for-4 with his 9th homer, and 5th homer in the last ten games.  His last name sounds like an STD and he’s burning hot.

Elliot Johnson – 1-for-2 with his 6th steal.  Member how we were all excited about Jed Lowrie a few weeks ago?  Well, here’s your newest MI hot schmotato.

Allen Craig – 2-for-4 as he hit cleanup.  Can we just assume he gets two hits in every game so I don’t have to keep writing about him?  Thank you.

Tim Stauffer – 5 IP, 3 ER, 10 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Returned from the DL after a month plus of a sore elbow.  Someone forgot to read the explicit directions on his elbows.  Don’t feed after midnight.  Don’t get wet and don’t, under any circumstances, pitch in away games.

Yonder Alonso – 2-for-4 to raise his average to .300.  He’s hitting cleanup and he has 7 runs and 10 RBIs and 1 homer on the year, so the average is pretty empty.  At least the average is good though, I’m farting in your general direction Aramis Ramirez.

J.J. Hardy – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs with his 9th homer.  From the comments, I noticed something about Hardy.  People can’t wait for him to cool off so they can drop him.  To the point where they’ll drop him even if he’s still hot.  Just get J.J. off people’s teams!  Sigh.  I wish I had him on all my teams.

David Robertson – Missed out on the save because of sore ribs that have lingered since Friday.  When Fred Flintstone had ‘saur ribs, he was only out of commission for a day (after uprighting his car).

Christian Friedrich – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 10 Ks.  Okay, it was against the Ain’ts in San Fran, but that would be a great start even against the Mariners.  Speaking of which, he gets them next.  Don’t mind if I do!

Troy Tulowitzki – Dexter Fowler hit a line drive that nailed Tulo in the leg.  Wait until Tulo finds out Dexter was using one of Ubaldo’s old bats.  Tulo stayed in the game, but then was lifted when he seemed to be favoring his leg.  As of this writing, it’s not known how long Tulo will be out.  Once someone tells me in the comments, I will let you all know.

Nelson Cruz – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in as many games.  Hang on, Cruz owners, because he’s about to go into turbo and hit 10 homers over the next 12 days and then pull a hamstring.

Eric Hosmer – 0-for-4 to lower his average to .174.  I’ll be organizing a pray circle for Hosmer’s owners at 4 PM at the Reseda Kiwanis Club.  After we meet there, we will be tracking down all Adam Dunn owners demanding they give us his stats.

Freddie Freeman – Threw in the towel in the 7th with blurred vision in his right eye.  He needed Bobby Cox in his corner to tell him to piss lightning and crap thunder.

Randall Delgado – 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  A few solid starts ago, I said monitor him.  Then a couple of solid starts ago, I said I’d pick him up in deeper mixed leagues.  Now, no more quantifying.  Pick him up.

Drew Smyly – 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Uh-oh, this might be the beginning of the end for his fantasy usefulness.  Sad emoticon.

Addison Reed – He got the save yesterday because it was getting too predictable the other way around.

Frank Francisco – 1 IP, 1 ER and the save.  The Mets decided to stick with their beleaguered closer and he rewarded their generosity by closing the door (after allowing a run).  Let’s see if you can guess what owning closers are similar to getting checked for:  Closers are completely nuts and after you grab them, they cough up runs.

David Wright – 1-for-3 with a run.  His average just dipped down below .400.  He’s a very good baseball player and I apologize I didn’t appropriately tout him during draft season.  May your piss and vinegar rain on my head.  Or if you looked at my slightly old draft sheet where I did tout him prior to his injury concerns, you’re welcome.

Yovani Gallardo – Still in the running for the most frustrating SP in the world.  Gives up only 2 hits in 6 IP vs the Mets and loses.  6 BB don’t help.  His ERA is still above 5, but it’ll be down sooner than his owners’ blood pressure.  Stay thirsty, Yovani.

Torii Hunter – Out for an unspecified amount of time as he deals with his son’s alleged sexual assault charges.  His son hopes to get this all cleared up and attend Penn State in the fall.

Dodgers Don Kenley; Take It Easy, Javy

May 08, 2012 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 324 Comments →

Don Mattingly said that Kenley Jansen is now his closer.  His exact words were, “There was a time and a place to put a closer in the setup role and an inferior pitcher in the closer role and that time has past.  I will know try to figure out why I ever shaved my mustache.  Things were much easier when Joe Torre was in the dugout managing the team and not on speed dial.  ‘Ooh, I’m Joe Torre, I take twenty minutes to return a text.’  C’mon, man, I can only ask for a replay review so many times!  I wonder if I can get Paul Sorvino to be my bench coach.  Or Joe Mantegna, he also kinda looks like Torre.”  Jansen will be a $12 Salad in all leagues by July, if not sooner.  Yes, he should be owned in all leagues, if he isn’t already.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jhoulys Chacin – Went to the Disgraceful List when he refused his assignment to Triple-A.  If you are gonna suck in your first 5 MLB starts of the year, Jhoulys you can do is report to AAA.

Christian Friedrich – Once top prospect fell off of radars due to injuries and velocity issues.  This year, he’s looked solid in Triple-A with 27 Ks and 4 walks.  It’s like this Christian is born again!  I wouldn’t go near him with a 120 inch pole yet in mixed leagues, but in NL-Only leagues I’d grab him for his start vs. the Padres.  Yeah, those Padres.  Wait, those were the same Padres that hit Pomenranz so hard PETA was called in.

Alex White – It’s all Rockies pitchers all the time.  White is also making Triple-A hitters seem like a bunch of minors (21/8 K/BB).  In mixed leagues, I wouldn’t carry White, said in a sultry voice.  For now, he’s an NL-Only flyer.  (He also gets the Padres.  Yup, still those Padres.)

Jayson Werth – As originally announced here after I read it elsewhere, Werth will miss 12 weeks with wrist surgery after breaking it Sunday night.  He must be pist.  If I didn’t have the DL room, I’d drop Werth.  Wrists are kinda important for hitters and there’s a chance, even if he returns this year, he might not be right until next year.

Tyler Moore – Was called up by the Nats and showed a ton of power in the minors, but for now he’s a bench bat on the Nats.  So in deep NL-Only leagues, he’s just a temp fill-in, i.e., I wouldn’t marry Tyler Moore.

Kevin Youkilis – On his rehab, he started a walking program.  I don’t get it; taking walks was about the only thing he could still do.

Will Middlebrooks – 3-for-5 with 2 homers as the Red Sox contemplate telling Youuuuk to take a long walk.  Middlebrooks will cool down at some point, but who cares?  Pick him up.  Now.

Josh Willingham – Didn’t start yesterday due to a skin condition near his mouth.  Sounds like The Other White Meat’s throbbing lardons are getting him in trouble.

Francisco Liriano – 5 IP, 4 ER.  Incredible that Liriano is still starting for the Twins, then again there’s players in their starting lineup that probably aren’t on any other team’s roster:  Jamey Carroll, Danny Valencia, Brian Dozier, Eric Komastu, Trevor Plouffe and Chris Parmelee.  Just because they play in Target Field doesn’t mean they have to only shop in bargain bins.

Giancarlo Stanton – Hit his 6th homer in the last ten games.  Rawr, rawr like a Stanton dragon!

Carlos Zambrano – 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 9 Ks.  As noted in the preseason, “Ozzie will either bond with Zambrano and have him produce his best year since the mid-naughts or their personalities together will become so combustible that Little Havana will break from the union and form the 51st state with Ozzie becoming Supreme Leader of Little Havana and having Zambrano executed.”  And that’s me noting me!  It looks like the former is coming true.  I’d absolutely grab Big Z in the non-sexual way.  Could be a solid 4th to 5th fantasy starter in mixed leagues.  Crayola Canyon definitely won’t hurt.

Brandon Snyder – 3-for-5, 2 runs and 6 RBIs with his 2nd homer.  Now has two homers in his last three starts.  Only problem is it took nearly a week to get 3 starts.

Nelson Cruz – 3-for-4, 3 runs.  Could the season long drought finally be coming to an end?  C’mon, Cruz, make it rain, man.

Aubrey Huff – Returned from the DL for anxiety related reasons.  Guess that means he’s back from lunch.

Cole Hamels – Guaranteed himself a suspension by admitting he threw at Bryce Harper.  When asked by teammates and management why he couldn’t show more restraint on what he says to the press, Cole replied, “I did show restraint.  I didn’t mention how my ‘old school pitching’ is modeled after the Romans and I threw at Harper because his eye black reminded me of that Christ-wannabe, Tim Tebow.”

Philip Humber – 2 1/3 IP, 8 ER.  Reminds me of the time I went through a perfect fartless vacation weekend with a girlfriend and then woke up the next morning back at my apartment and nearly Dutch Oven’d myself to death.

Doug Fister – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Sure, it doesn’t hurt to return to a matchup against the M’s, but I’d still give Fister a fighting chance on a mixed league team.

Ernesto Frieri – Scioscia announced that Frieri or Walden will get saves while Downs is, uh, down.  Welcome, Frieri, to saver town.  Hopefully, Frieri will enter each game in a red 1967 convertible Chevy Camaro, and when he leans in to get the signal from the catcher, he does The Hunch.

Mike Trout – Sat out yesterday for Bourjos.  They need Morales to hurt himself (while hurting Vernon Wells).  The Sciosciapath doesn’t have cojones to start Pujols at 3rd base.  Somewhere, La Russa’s reading that and his feathered hair is feeling a little bouncier.

Jonathan Papelbon – 1 IP, 3 ER.  Kazaam!

Jordany Valdespin – Hit the game winning homer.  He has great speed and some decent power (15 homers, 33 steals last year in Double-A), but I’m not sure the Mets will play him (they should, but not sure they will).  Plus, his name sounds like it’s from a Harry Potter Character Name Generator.

Cody Ransom – 2-for-5, 2 RBIs and his 4th homer, as he bats .351.  Yes, he should be playing every day.  No, he’s not.  Yes, he’s old so this sudden burst won’t continue.  No, it doesn’t matter.

Guillermo Mota – 100 games for a second positive PED test.  PEDS are just his M.O. (Mota Operandi).

Jered Weaver – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Well, Johnny Vander Meer’s family can stop following him around now.

Lance Lynn – 5 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners (4 BBs), 7 Ks, lowering his ERA to 1.40.  Okay, but now I’m officially concerned about an upcoming correction.  4 walks in 5 innings is not good and 1.40 ERA won’t stay that low.

Allen Craig – 2-for-3, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and his 2nd homer.  I told you to grab him yesterday.  What’s changed?  The day.

Jeff Samardzija – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks.  You know that guy that you invited last second to join your league who you really don’t like and is currently in first?  He’s going to pick up Samardzija if you don’t.

Bryan LaHair – 1-for-3 as LaHair moussed his 8th homer.

Ian Stewart – 1-for-3 with his 3rd homer.  Does he have a section of Wrigley that dresses up like Cubs with Stewart jerseys called Stewart’s Root Bears?

Adrian Cardenas – The Cubs called up the ex A’s prospect to be the UTIL after Blake DeWitt was DFA’d (unfortunately his mom Joyce never hooked up with Theo’s dad, Juan, at the 70′s Battle of the Network Stars).  He’s played 2nd in the minors and delivers high average, average speed, and a below average glove.  Given that the Cubs have a dinosaur playing second, he could see some ABs if he’s hitting.  Stash for NL-only.

Wilson Betemit – 1-for-3 with his 4th homer (and third in the last ten games).  He also has a hit in nine of his last ten games while batting .357.  There, folks, is your hot schmotato.

J.J. Hardy – 3-for-4.  Actually, more impressed with a three hit night from Hardy than I would be with a 1-for-4 with a homer night.  As my ex-girlfriends will tell you, I’m a small ball kinda guy.

Edinson Volquez – 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners, 5 Ks.  A hodgepadre that was pitchslapped by Pomeranz.  (I can only imagine if this is someone’s first time reading the site.  Did he say ‘A hodgepadre that was pitchslapped?’  Where am I and how do I get back to ESPN?)

Dale Thayer – Thayer throwing pills for the save yesterday — what a relief!   Since Cashner threw 39 pitches the day before, he wasn’t available.  I’d hold Cashner, but this also proves that Gregerson is nowhere near getting saves.

Zack Cozart – 1-for-5 with his 3rd homer, but only his 7th RBI.  Could the pitcher’s spot get on base once in a while?  Geez…

Alex Gonzalez – Tore his ACL, which comes just days after Gamel also tore his ACL.  The last time a Milwaukee duo tore up joints like that, it was Laverne & Shirley after Lenny & Squiggy slipped some Spanish Fly in their Schlitzes.

RCL Roundup: May 7

May 07, 2012 By: VinWins Category: Our Leagues 10 Comments →

Achilles (Tennessee Mash – RCL 25) held on to the lead with 109 points while Navseal 7 in the tough RCL 9 rocketed up to 2nd with 106. AdamH (Sleeve of Wizard – RCL 43) is 3rd at 104, followed by Pig Charmer (Grunge Ball – RCL 16), Simply fred (The Fredsies – ECFBL), and Bill Hodgeman (Team Hodgeman – Toads n Wet Rocks) with 102 points. Check out the Master Standings to see where you rank.

We have tweaked the Competitive Index formula in an attempt to balance the problem of abandoned teams, which will become more prevalent as the season progresses. The bottom 2 numbers in each statistical category are now dropped in the index calculation. Of course, there is no perfect way to compare 48 leagues, but we feel this will give us the best results for a fair and fun competition. RCL 9 continues to set the pace with a strong LCI of 105. Schmohawk in Training is right behind at 104.

With the first month of the season completed, I checked back to the drafts to see who had the best results. No team drafting first overall finished April in first place. The only other draft slot where this occurred was #12. 8 teams drafting 9th sat in first place after 1 month. While only 1 team that drafted Miguel Cabrera was leading their league, 16 teams that took Matt Kemp sat atop the standings. Of the 6 teams that drafted a pitcher in round 1, Team Hill (Go Big or Go Home) had the best April result, sitting in 5th place after taking Roy Halladay with the 11th pick.

There were 28 trades this week, bringing the total for the year to 79. Albert Pujols was traded 3 times, but his owners weren’t letting him go cheap. He was dealt for Joey Votto in Beef SAGNOF!, Prince Fielder in RCL 16, and Dan Uggla and Alex Rodriguez in RCL 9. In a move that should pay big dividends, The Fugs (Epic Beardmen Division) acquired Yovani Gallardo for Henry Rodriguez. In the search for saves, Trevor Cahill was traded for Francisco Cordero; Brandon McCarthy for Jonathan Broxton; Dan Uggla for Jonathan Papelbon; Ian Kennedy for Fernando Rodney; Cameron Maybin for Jim Johnson; Bryce Harper for Addison Reed; and Ted Lilly for Sean Marshall. In RCL 29, Gio Gonzalez was dealt for Chris Perez and Santiago Casilla. Also traded this week were Miguel Cabrera, Robonson Cano, Stephen Strasburg, Ian Kinsler, and Giancarlo Stanton. You can find all the trades listed in the Fantasy Baseball Forums. Look for the RCL under “Everything Else.”

Mastersball Carey (Ryan Carey) continues to lead the Expert League by 9.5 points, but there is a tight battle behind him as only 7.5 points separate 2nd and 8th. Rudy and Grey are in this group, in 3rd and 4th respectively. Both have much better pitching than hitting numbers. Grey is last in average (.250) and has just 18 hitting points, compared to 53.5 pitching points. For Rudy, pitching dominates 51.5 – 21.5.

Weekly Leaders

Chuck Norris (The Fuzz – Schmohawk in Training) had the top hitting team, finishing at .289 with 59 runs, 17 home runs, 64 RBI, and 9 steals. While Nelson Cruz was hitting .115, the likes of Jason Kipnis and Pedro Alvarez helped carry the load. Starlin Castro and Carlos Gonzalez also had great weeks. Oh my Crawford (RCL 29) led in pitching with 8 wins and 7 saves, along with fine ratios of 2.22 and 0.94. Felix Hernandez, Mark Buehrle, and CC Sabathia paced the staff.

Average: .345 (All I Do is Nguyen    - RCL 25)
Runs: 60 (DJ Roomba – Fausto or Roberto?)
HR: 20 (Fastballs At Ridgemont High – Schmohawk in Training)
RBI: 64 (The Fuzz – Schmohawk in Training)
SB: 16 (Team Little – The Dread Pirate Returns)
Ks: 86 (BG Nitros – RCL 40)
Wins: 10 (seward bellman – RCL 16)
Saves: 9 (Team Juiced – RCL 4, # Thanzig – Myrtle’s Acres, Good Wood – RCL 40)
ERA: 0.81 (The Oh No No’s – RCL 41)
WHIP: 0.69 (Kenny Effin’ Powers AllStars – RCL 44)

RCL Logo
TEAM OF THE WEEK – April 30 – May 6
Navseal 7 (RCL 9)
90/303 (.297)
59R/17 HR/60 RBI/7 SB
71 IP
69K/4 W/2.41/0.90/3 S
Navseal 7 jumped from 80.5 to 101 points in RCL 9 this week, stretching their lead to 29 points. Chipper Jones (.429/7 Runs/2 HR/9 RBI) and Carlos Gonzalez (.391/6 Runs/3 HR/9 RBI/1 SB) were the offensive leaders, while Adam Dunn contributed 4 home runs and hit .318. Felix Hernandez picked up a win and 18 strikeouts, with an ERA of 0.56 and 0.75 WHIP. David Price won his lone start and struck out 8. He allowed 1 run and 4 baserunners in 8 innings. Jonathan Papelbon added a couple of saves.

OPS Fantasy Leagues: What’s So Funny ‘Bout Peace, Love and Giancarlo Stanton?

May 03, 2012 By: Tom Jacks Category: 2012 Fantasy Baseball 22 Comments →

Giancarlo Stanton has battled injuries and the Marlins’ awkward ballpark this year, but I haven’t completely lost hope. Since arriving in the majors, he’s been a fantastic player in OPS leagues because, aside from his insane slugging, he’s been taking walks at a solid rate. This year’s been different, with Stanton walking a lot less, hitting less of his balls in the air, and less of his fly balls becoming home runs. I have no idea how much of his struggles can be attributed to lingering knee problems, but the fact that the Marlins have played him in a majority of their games gives me confidence that his knee is improving. If he stays on the field, I don’t believe these negative trends will continue because his excellent eye and power are too good to disappear. For the rest of 2012, I’d expect his baseline near .330/.500/.830, or roughly his 2010 numbers. Keep in mind that he already has 57 career home runs, despite being only 22 years old. I believe that he will regularly top a .900 OPS throughout his career, possibly as soon as next year. Speaking of sluggers with slow starts…

Nelson Cruz, an avid historian, has been a long-time believer in Theodore Roosevelt’s sage advice to speak softly and carry a boomstick. He has a relatively low OBP, but offsets this potential shortcoming in OPS leagues with his career .500 slugging. He’s had a weak start in 2012, posting an OPS below .700. There are many numbers that stand out this season. Cruz has been swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone and more pitches inside the strike zone, always a good sign. However, he’s made less contact with the pitches he’s swung at, as evidenced by an increased swinging strike rate, an increased strikeout rate, and a decreased contact rate, relative to his career norms. Another important factor is that his HR/FB is roughly half his career rate, suggesting likely improvement going forward. Overall, I believe these factors indicate some decline is probable, but improvement is to be expected from his current 2012 pace. For the rest of the season, I’ll project a .320/.480/.800 line.

Derek Jeter is a player only Matthew Berry would call an “upper-level fantasy shortstop” for the rest of 2012. Sure Jeter’s been rocking a 1.000 OPS this season, but I’m astonished that other fantasy baseball ‘perts are buying into him. Apparently ESPN analysts watching the Yankees are like observers at a Man vs. Food event shouting “This is the stuff of legends!” In OPS leagues, it might be tempting to like his fast start, but he’s just not going to continue anything remotely near this pace. In fact, Jeter has arguably been the luckiest player in baseball, with a .400 BABIP and a HR/FB at 30%. It’s also important to note that he hasn’t maintained an OPS over .900 since he partied in 1999, while his OPS has been below .750 the past two seasons. I think he approaches a line of .360/.390/.750 as he did in 2011. However, his upside is limited and there’s the possibility that Jeter leaves his fantasy owners alone in a world that’s so cold.

Seth Smith is used to being neglected. The Lisper’s Nightmare was the backup quarterback to Eli Manning at the University of Mississippi. Last year he was traded to the A’s for Guillermo Moscoso and Josh Outman. He’s currently owned in less than 1% of ESPN leagues. If this doesn’t compel you to pick up Smith out of sympathy, then do it because he’s a sneaky play in OPS leagues. His plate discipline has improved, as illustrated by his increased contact rate and walk rate, along with him swinging at less pitches outside the strike zone. Despite these encouraging signs, he’s posted a .650 OPS. I expect Smith’s BABIP to surge and his overall line to have a corresponding rise, with .340/.460/.800 a distinct possibility for the rest of the season. In leagues with daily changes, it would be worth benching him against lefties because the A’s plan to do so the majority of the time (Smith has a career .590 OPS vs. lefties and .870 OPS vs. righties).

Bryan LaHair continues to set the world on fire. The 29-year-old rookie obliterated Triple A in 2011, with 38 homers in 129 games, also known as taking candy from a baby. In his stint with the Cubs last September he demonstrated that he appears to be capable of playing in the majors, with an .885 OPS across 20 games. This year he switched jerseys with Albert Pujols and is currently carrying an OPS over 1.200. Some, if not all, of his stats are downright ridiculous and he won’t be able to remain the best player in the league. Nevertheless, after heavily regressing his numbers, there appears to be a decent hitter underneath all that luck. I’d expect LaHair to produce a .330/.470/.800 line for the rest of the season, with upside for more if his luck continues. You may be old for a rookie Bryan but tonight, with you on my fantasy team, we are young.

Them Crooked Save Vultures — Snap, Snap, Claw, Claw, Save

September 16, 2011 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell 81 Comments →

Snap, snap, claw, claw, save.  That’s The Save Vulture Dance.  Snap, snap, claw, claw, save…  Sing it like it’s The Electric Slide.  The save vulture is a scavenger bird.  They see weakness in others’ misfortune.  A closer goes down or struggles and the save vulture swoops in and gnaws on the closer’s handcuff.  Peck, Jim Johnson, peck.  Peck, Joel Peralta, peck-peck.  The save vultures are indigenous to rural and metropolitan areas, especially if there’s an injury.  Goodbye, Brian Wilson.  Hello, Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla and Jeremy Affeldt.  Save vultures have trouble reproducing because they’re usually overweight guys who would prefer to listen to sports news than what the girl they’re dating is talking about.  “How does my manicure look?”  “Very pretty, Manny Acosta.”   “Did you just call me, Manny Acosta?”  “No.”  Joakim Soria has tightness in his hamstring; the save vulture has limberness in its loins that only Greg Holland can satiate.  If you need closers, there’s quite a few of them out there right now.  There’s also quite a few that you can drop.  Member when you were my closer, Fernando Salas?  Fernando Salas, “I don’t know who you are and why are you sitting on my couch in the dark?”  Doesn’t matter cause I just dropped you for Jason Motte and it felt great.  Snap, snap, claw, claw, save…  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Lonnie Chisenhall – Why don’t you pick up Lonnie Chisenhall?  Afraid of success?  That’s what your ex-wife would say.

Brent Morel – Has 4 homers in the last week with one of them coming off Porcello in a battle of the mushrooms that had the Smurfs gasping.

Juan Francisco – I went over my Juan Francisco fantasy the other day.  I wrote it while huffing grape-scented magic markers.

Omar Infante – If I was teammates with Infante, I’d be like, “What’s up, Toddler?!”  Then he’d be like, “It’s Infante, not Infant-e.”  “That’s cool, Toddler!”  He’d probably hate me.  It’s a’ight, I usually hate him, but right now he’s hitting (.346 in the last week).

Paul Goldschmidt – I’ll probably go all in with Goldschmidt next year, but he’s still a little raw.  To put that in Hell’s Kitchen-speak, if you’re owning Goldschmidt now, you’re probably walking with scallops about a minute early.

Derrek Lee – Back in the 50′s, when Lee was particpating in “Duck and Cover” drills, I wonder how he used to get under the desk.  Any the hoo!  He’s hitting, so there’s that.

Ryan Raburn – He hit two homers this week, and, yeah, I have a hard time trusting him too.  Appropriate his name contains ‘burn’ cause he’s done it to me a bunch of times.

Dee Gordon – Over the last week, he’s looked pretty lost at the plate but he could steal 5 bases this weekend.  It’s like that old joke; you own Gordon cause you need the eggs.

Marco Scutaro – He’s been hitting the cover off the ball Roy Hobbs-style.  Though, hitting the cover off the ball Marco Scutaro-style means one homer and a couple of doubles.

Jon Jay – Even before the Holliday injury, Jay was starting and hitting.  Jon Jay Jingleheimer Schmidt is my fifth outfielder and can be your fifth outfielder too.

Allen Craig – Now he should get extra playing time because of Holliday’s injury.  He reminds me of the best and worst of Infante.  Cute, but peeing in your face when you change his diaper.

Drew Pomeranz – (Or Matt Moore or Brad Peacock or Shelby Miller or any other top pitching prospect.)  These adds are more for dynasty and keeper leagues.  As for other starters at this time of year, they’re all either addable or droppable depending on their matchups.  If you want some under 50% owned starters, look at my borderline fantasy starter post from yesterday.

Wilin Rosario – The Rockies moved on from Iannetta.  In Double-A, Rosario had 21 homers in 426 plate appearances and only walked 19 times.  Sounds like the Rockies found themselves Miguel Olivo Jr.  I will now call you Miguelito, The Tiny Olive.  I wouldn’t run out and add Rosario outside of NL-Only keepers and deep two catcher leagues.

SELL

Adam Jones – Hey, he’s making himself undervalued for next year.  We can appreciate that, right?

Nelson Cruz – He might start, uh, starting games tomorrow or Sunday.  Then he might sit for a day, start, sit, etc. etc. etc.  If you have room to switch him back and forth from your bench, then you hold him.  Otherwise, I want someone I can trust to play.

Kevin Youkilis – Youuuuuuuk looks like puuuuuuke.

Mark Reynolds – He’s in one of his 6 for 40 stretches that makes you want to reconsider your Mini Donkey tattoo.  Or at least it does for me.  Stupid permanent ink.

Carlos Quentin – Ozzie’s currently infatuated with De Aza and Viciedo, which is fine by me.  I’m not hatin’, I’m statement statin’.