Sometimes you think you know what a player is. He’s a stud. He’s a stiff. He’s hot. He’s not. And so on. Players get labels pretty quick as they come into our consciousness and it’s awfully hard to shake that.

The same goes for teams throughout a season. Oh, they aren’t hitting well or that’s a hitter’s park. These types of unwitting biases can keep you from rostering the exact players you need to win so it’s important that you keep investigating the trends that are going on throughout the season.

Those that though, prior to the 2014 season, that Anthony Rizzo can’t hit lefties were right…..prior to that season. In 2015, Rizzo broke out and it was, in a significant part, due to a much improved approach against LHP. Those that didn’t just accept the current track record were rewarded when they rostered Rizzo against lefties when few other people did.

This season, maybe it’s a guy like Tampa’s Erasmo Ramirez, who looks to be turning the corner as a pitcher and has put up some solid numbers so far this season. You might write him off as stinky based on prior track record or by him burning you when you did roster him, but a look at the most recent 30 days show a different story.

It’s a good idea to look at a player’s metrics over the last 30 days or so to get an idea which way the player it trending or if he’s been able to continue a trend that he hasn’t exhibited before. You’re likely to find some player emerging and give you an edge over your competitors who are still reading last month’s news.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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If Friday, when I last wrote, was the worst pitching day I had ever seen, this one looks fantastic.  Aces abound.  Congrats if you recognize the reference from my title.  One of my favorite movie scenes from a great movie, Rounders.  Classic really, it could be a little overplayed and some may say overrated, but I’m a big fan.  It’s an aces full day and so I’m going to skip to fellas I’ll be looking to pair with my aces.  Some folks will pay up and pair two aces tonight, it’s a matter of your own personal strategy and risk assessment.  Two aces will be more “safe”.  Kluber/Syndergaard will probably be amazing.  Scherzer/Gray, that would most likely be incredible.  However, with a game in Coors and some high priced bats, I’m much more likely to take one lower tier ace (like Syndergaard for instance) and pair him with a cheap upside play, someone such as Mike Foltynewicz.  Mike’s point totals throughout May are a bit of a mixed bag, but his strikeouts are not.  Starting May 6th his K totals are: 7, 7, 7, 7, 8, 5.  San Diego is willing to play along as they rank 3rd in MLB in Ks right now.  They’re an all or nothing, HR or strikeout style team a’la the Astros.  For $7,200, I’ll take my chances that tonight is a nothing night  and the kid can rack up the Ks at home.  Let’s look at a couple more value pitchers to pair with our aces.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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Earlier this season, DraftKings did us all the favor and left a no named Jimmy Paredes at a mere $2,000 for a week. In a previous post, I wrote that I was going to take advantage of the pricing until they adjusted, which they eventually did, raising him to $4,000.

This time around, my go-to guy is Jung-Ho Kang for the Pirates. Not only is Kang practically starting everyday for the Pirates, he’s producing, too. It may not be the power numbers that he showed in South Korea, but the Pirates will take it.

And I will, too.

Kang has led me to cash in his past three starts, as he comes in at a cheap $3,300. I’ll take it once again as long as he’s in the lineup and as long as DraftKings doesn’t become the wiser.

Straight to the cash, homie.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 20 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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Alen Hanson was signed by the Pirates as a teenager way back in 2009, so it probably feels like he’s been around forever. I guess this post is my way of saying I hope you didn’t fall asleep on him, as he’s finally getting close to the major leagues. Don’t get me wrong – he won’t be up anytime soon with Neil Walker established at second base, but we could see Hanson take over at the keystone in 2016. There are a couple of factors that I think have made Hanson an underrated fantasy prospect. One is that he’s simply in a loaded system. The Pirates have one of the best farms in baseball. The other is that he falters on traditional prospect lists thanks to concerns over his defense as well as his makeup. So why does Hanson raise my Jolly Roger? Let’s take a closer look in this week’s profile…

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At first, it was reported that Alberto Callaspo rejected the trade to the Dodgers. Leaving Alex Guerrero (1-for-2) to stare at Callaspo’s smugshot-slash-you mad bro? face. Then, later in the evening, Callaspo apparently approved the trade of him going to the Dodgers and Juan Uribe heading the other way. A commenter mentioned how in the preseason, the management didn’t have faith in Mattingly to start Pederson, so they traded away Kemp. It’s a fun theory. One that might have a morsel of truth, but I think this trade might backfire. Here’s a scenario for our five girl readers: imagine you were trying to get your man to change their yellow-pitted t-shirt, so you remove all the stained t-shirts from their hamper and throw them away, even his Bob Marley Buffalo Soldier t-shirt. When he realizes all his stained shirts are gone, what does he do? Does he wear the new shirts you bought him? Or does he scribble an oddly racist-looking Bob Marley on a hand towel and tape it to his chest? Mattingly could play Alex Guerrero at third with Uribe gone, but Justin Turner had started at 3rd base five times in the last week, not Guerrero, even with Uribe still in LA, and Callaspo is a 3rd baseman. So Uribe’s gone, but I think Mattingly just wears a masking-taped, hand towel now. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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If I was drafting a season-long fantasy baseball team today, I would target Kolten Wong very early. I remember before the start of the 2014 season, a major media outlet had a debate as to who the best future middle infielder would be. I was hoping one of them was going to talk about Wong, and to my surprise, they did. I was surprised because there was so much focus on future star players like Javier Baez, Francisco Lindor, Addison Russell, and Carlos Correa. We all remember Kolten being picked-off first base to end Game 4 of the World Series against the Red Sox in 2013. Talk about a way for a young rookie’s career to start off! Wong came back in 2014 starting at second base for the Cardinals, only to be demoted to the minors after struggling to begin the season, and was then recalled and performed very well to end 2014. This season, Wong was the starting second baseman for the Cardinals, but batted at the bottom of the lineup. Now he’s batting at the top of the Cardinals’ lineup and has really displayed his talent. So far he’s batting over .300 with 5 home runs and 3 stolen bases. However, he has the potential to hit 20 homers and have 25 stolen bases. When it comes to DFS, I will continue to play Wong at every opportunity. Not too many second basemen have power and speed ability. Robinson Cano is no longer a viable DFS option. Brian Dozier is a power hitter. Ian Kinsler has been an on-base player this season while still looking for his first home run. Jason Kipnis is coming back to his potential self, and as for Jose Altuve, well, umm, all I can say is Wong isn’t there, yet. If there’s a second baseman that can potentially reach Altuve-type ability, I firmly believe Wong could be that guy.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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I was the last one. It didn’t matter what it was, my family was not well flush with the monies so I watched as my friends got the latest and greatest toys and game while I had to wait, and wait, and wait to get the same toy/game if I ever got it at all. On the holidays I wouldn’t open presents, we’d go down to the store and look at what I was going to get later, after getting it on layaway.

But don’t think I was any less thankful. Hey, I didn’t know any better and may have been better off in a lot of ways for having to live that way. But that’s not what I’m talking about here. When I finally did get that toy/game, it was almost always passe’, beyond its value already. Everyone else was onto the next so I made do with what I had.

In DFS, there is a similar, less warm and fuzzy things that happens when folks jump on the trending toy. They chase the previous performance and end up overpaying for what has already happened rather than look to see what was going to be the hot sexy item tomorrow.

Recency bias. It was the same thing I wrote about Corey Kluber last week. I relished the fact that I knew folks were going to steer clear because of his 5+ ERA and the fact that, most recently, he had burned them in games. Everything else was screaming that he was due to get his sexy back, but he was fairly low owned when we rostered him last Wednesday.

It’s not always a bad thing to jump aboard a bandwagon. Sometimes they run on pretty well. Kluber followed up last week’s told-you-so special with another beaut. And Bryce Harper’s heater has gone on long enough to be dangerous to the touch.

Still, chances are if you are paying based on yesterday, you’ll miss out on today. Look at everything, disregard yesterday. If your research says he should be good today, then do it, man, put him on the board! But if things aren’t in his favor, think twice and don’t do it just because he did well yesterday.

The same is true for bad performance. If you see that your guy should be good to go for his matchup, but his recent play looks stinky, don’t hesitate, beat the crowd to the performance and reap the rewards.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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I read a great piece this offseason on J.D. Martinez.  He was such an interesting player last year and I was trying to make heads or tails of him.  Was his breakout for real?  Was he to be believed?  Was this a fluke?  Where in the world am I going to draft this guy this year?  In my research of the man, the myth, the J.D. I found an article talking about his failures in Houston and adjustments he made.  You can read it for yourself here.  J.D. talks about how the breakthrough happened when watching film.  Not film of himself mind you, but film of his teammate, Jason Castro.  Next up, he checked out film of Ryan Braun, then Miguel Cabrera and finally Mike Trout.  He noticed how each of their bats stayed in the zone for a much longer time than his did and realized he needed to make this adjustment to succeed.  He worked on it with great success in winter ball, but was cut by Houston during spring training.  The Tigers welcomed him with open arms and the rest is J.D.’s breakout season.

Why am I telling you this and how does it related to DFS?  Well grasshopper, I will tell you.  I am telling you this because you can learn something from J.D.  You can employ this same technique to improve your daily game that J.D. used to tattoo baseballs.  I think one of the best ways to learn how to play this game well is to study those that are more successful at it than you.  Pick a DFS player you see at the top of tournament boards most nights and play them heads up, join the same tournaments as them and study them.  Don’t just look at who they picked, but why they picked them.  If you can’t come up with a good reason why they picked them, dig deeper.  I personally believe this is helpful in all walks of life, but I can guarantee it won’t make you a worse DFS player.  So, give it a whirl and see what you can learn, you might just have your own breakout.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

I don’t know if you’ve heard, but the latest in rookie nookie will be making his debut tonight.  Everyone wants to hook up with Noah Syndergaard, myself included.  The kid’s been just obliterating the PCL to the tune of a 1.82 ERA, 0.944 WHIP and K-rate of 10.3.  Those numbers alone are impressive, then you factor in how hitter friendly the PCL can be and they become knock your socks off numbers.  Even last year when his PCL numbers weren’t wonderful, Noah was still mowing them down at around a 10 K/9 pace, so the strikeout  potential is real.  Syndergaard cracks the top 10 in just about everyone’s top 10 prospects lists, including our very own Prospect Mike who ranked him as high as 3rd.  Noah gets the call against the Cubs who just so happen to lead the majors in strikeouts right now.  At $7,200, Syndergaard provides terrific upside with the potential for plenty of high scoring Ks.  Of course, rookie nookie can always be dangerous.  I’m guessing the buzz around the kid will cause his ownership percentage to be on the high side.  If you have a feeling that 30% or so of the field will be waking up in a bathtub full of ice with no kidneys, then by all means, employ the fade.  As someone who missed out on him in all but one of his yearly leagues, I’ll happily insert him some lineups just to ride the wave a bit.  The beauty of DFS is you don’t need to be first to the waiver wire, you just have to work in the salary.  I’ll be swiping right and enjoying my rookie nookie hook-up tonight, how about you?

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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What are you all doing here today? It’s Mother’s Day… shouldn’t you be getting out of the basement and going to pick up the pizza for her for once! Go put on your fancy sweatpants, you know, the ones without the hot pocket stains, and put on actual shoes. Slippers or flip flops are not okay today. Seriously, try and do something! Did you remember to write her a Dear Mama letter? What about being mothers little helper and taking out the trash or refilling her bourbon? There are lots of things you can do to help out your Mother. I know they like telling you what to do or what not to do, but sometimes that’s just the way it goes. At least you know mama tried and wasn’t just standing in the shadows… I hope. Let’s be nice to her and  just lay off the yo mama jokes for the day? Cool. Oh, that’s right, you are here for fantasy baseball and not just songs and jokes. Yeah I got jokes.

Please, blog, may I have some more?