I almost went with Mark Wahlberg‘s rendition here but I thought, nah, I ain’t gonna make your ears bleed. I’ll just gif it and be done. Just realize you did it to yourself if you clicked that. Ample warning was given. But back to the point: Drew Hutchison. He’s a GPP play today at the low, low price of $6,500. I hear you out there: but Sky, he has a 5.33 ERA and is pitching in a pitcher’s park. Bish you cray! Yeah, yeah, I’ve heard these things before. Don’t care. What I care is going on below the surface numbers for Hutch and that’s his home/road splits. He’s having a bizarro season thus far so why not have him be amazing at Rogers Center despite having major reverse splits on the year? I mean, it all makes sense, right? Over 45.1 IP this year at home, Hutch carries a 2.38 ERA, an 8.34 K/9 and a miniscule 1.59 BB/9. I don’t understand this and yet I can’t fight these stats. And just for correctness, he ain’t getting lucky as his xFIP of 3.04 and FIP of 2.49 can attest to. So Hutch really does have the power…YEAH! PS, if you’re reading this Michael Bay. Kindly go eff yourself for taking a CGI dump on my childhood Transformer memories. Hate you forever. But enough about Optimus Prime, let’s move along. Here’s my Sunday fun day takes for this day’s slate…

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 20 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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Max Scherzer against the Phillies. If there was ever a chance to redeem yourself in losing a perfect game on the last out the very next day, this would be the pitcher and the team to do so. From a daily fantasy perspective, I’ve always said that in order for a pitcher to pay for his price, he has to have a reasonable expectation of doing 2 things: Allow 3 runs or less, and strike out 1 batter for every thousand dollars you pay. You may ask why I don’t include innings or hits in this formula of mine, and it is a valid question. For one, if a pitcher has allowed less than 3 runs up to a certain point, he has a good chance of remaining in the game. Also, if a pitcher is going to strikeout plenty of hitters, he must pitch plenty of innings, therefore that basis is completely covered. I don’t worry about hits so much, because they tend to correlate with runs scored and high contact rates (which pitchers that strike hitters out typically don’t have). So this all begs the question, “is Max Scherzer worth paying 14K for on DraftKings?” My answer is no. Now to preface this, you will never find someone that lends themselves to the “pay for pitching” mantra than myself. The reason I say no does not boil down to one simple point, but rather to many. My first reason to avoid Scherzer is that while the Phillies are the worst in basically every hitting category ever, they actually don’t strike out that much. Even against one of the more strikeout prone teams such as the Astros or Cubs, I would have a hard time giving any pitcher the reasonable expectation to reach 14 strikeouts. Another reason, maybe even bigger so than the first, is the fact that there are so many other solid, high-upside options for 3-5K cheaper. So should you pay 14K for 14 Ks? Yes! Should you pay 14K for Scherzer today? No!

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 20 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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Don’t go jump out the window in DFS hysteria. I am just filling in for the day because Sky reached out and touched me, I mean he got in touch with me. Some of you may remember that I wrote DFS last year and some of you may not even remember yesterday. I’m looking at you hungover Andrew Miller owners. Today we have what feels like opening day with all the hot starters on the bill. Kersh, Bum, Price, Felix are all high priced aces and would be easy calls but it doesn’t leave you any money for offense. You might be able to find some good cheap offensive calls but I like to spread my dollars around as much as I can and not depend on hitting on a bunch of bargain buys. We must have balance. Today Danny Salazar is going for $9,400 and I like him to be up there with the big dogs. On the year, he has the highest K/9 among qualified pitchers and has the 7th best swinging strike percentage. When he’s on he’s un-hittable, but he has been dinged up a few times this year. The HR/FB leaves a lot to be desired (17.6%) and did have a three game stretch where the walks killed him. That got corrected in his last turn when he went 7 innings and K’d 10 while only walking one against Baltimore. He gets the Tigers today who were really scary to start the year but have been atrocious offensively since V-Mart went down. Which is funny because V-Mart did nothing when he was there. He must be their spiritual leader or something like that. K’zar has faced them once this year and went seven innings with eleven K’s and only giving up one run. I like him and you should too if you don’t want to over spend.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Sometimes you think you know what a player is. He’s a stud. He’s a stiff. He’s hot. He’s not. And so on. Players get labels pretty quick as they come into our consciousness and it’s awfully hard to shake that.

The same goes for teams throughout a season. Oh, they aren’t hitting well or that’s a hitter’s park. These types of unwitting biases can keep you from rostering the exact players you need to win so it’s important that you keep investigating the trends that are going on throughout the season.

Those that though, prior to the 2014 season, that Anthony Rizzo can’t hit lefties were right…..prior to that season. In 2015, Rizzo broke out and it was, in a significant part, due to a much improved approach against LHP. Those that didn’t just accept the current track record were rewarded when they rostered Rizzo against lefties when few other people did.

This season, maybe it’s a guy like Tampa’s Erasmo Ramirez, who looks to be turning the corner as a pitcher and has put up some solid numbers so far this season. You might write him off as stinky based on prior track record or by him burning you when you did roster him, but a look at the most recent 30 days show a different story.

It’s a good idea to look at a player’s metrics over the last 30 days or so to get an idea which way the player it trending or if he’s been able to continue a trend that he hasn’t exhibited before. You’re likely to find some player emerging and give you an edge over your competitors who are still reading last month’s news.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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If Friday, when I last wrote, was the worst pitching day I had ever seen, this one looks fantastic.  Aces abound.  Congrats if you recognize the reference from my title.  One of my favorite movie scenes from a great movie, Rounders.  Classic really, it could be a little overplayed and some may say overrated, but I’m a big fan.  It’s an aces full day and so I’m going to skip to fellas I’ll be looking to pair with my aces.  Some folks will pay up and pair two aces tonight, it’s a matter of your own personal strategy and risk assessment.  Two aces will be more “safe”.  Kluber/Syndergaard will probably be amazing.  Scherzer/Gray, that would most likely be incredible.  However, with a game in Coors and some high priced bats, I’m much more likely to take one lower tier ace (like Syndergaard for instance) and pair him with a cheap upside play, someone such as Mike Foltynewicz.  Mike’s point totals throughout May are a bit of a mixed bag, but his strikeouts are not.  Starting May 6th his K totals are: 7, 7, 7, 7, 8, 5.  San Diego is willing to play along as they rank 3rd in MLB in Ks right now.  They’re an all or nothing, HR or strikeout style team a’la the Astros.  For $7,200, I’ll take my chances that tonight is a nothing night  and the kid can rack up the Ks at home.  Let’s look at a couple more value pitchers to pair with our aces.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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Earlier this season, DraftKings did us all the favor and left a no named Jimmy Paredes at a mere $2,000 for a week. In a previous post, I wrote that I was going to take advantage of the pricing until they adjusted, which they eventually did, raising him to $4,000.

This time around, my go-to guy is Jung-Ho Kang for the Pirates. Not only is Kang practically starting everyday for the Pirates, he’s producing, too. It may not be the power numbers that he showed in South Korea, but the Pirates will take it.

And I will, too.

Kang has led me to cash in his past three starts, as he comes in at a cheap $3,300. I’ll take it once again as long as he’s in the lineup and as long as DraftKings doesn’t become the wiser.

Straight to the cash, homie.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 20 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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Alen Hanson was signed by the Pirates as a teenager way back in 2009, so it probably feels like he’s been around forever. I guess this post is my way of saying I hope you didn’t fall asleep on him, as he’s finally getting close to the major leagues. Don’t get me wrong – he won’t be up anytime soon with Neil Walker established at second base, but we could see Hanson take over at the keystone in 2016. There are a couple of factors that I think have made Hanson an underrated fantasy prospect. One is that he’s simply in a loaded system. The Pirates have one of the best farms in baseball. The other is that he falters on traditional prospect lists thanks to concerns over his defense as well as his makeup. So why does Hanson raise my Jolly Roger? Let’s take a closer look in this week’s profile…

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At first, it was reported that Alberto Callaspo rejected the trade to the Dodgers. Leaving Alex Guerrero (1-for-2) to stare at Callaspo’s smugshot-slash-you mad bro? face. Then, later in the evening, Callaspo apparently approved the trade of him going to the Dodgers and Juan Uribe heading the other way. A commenter mentioned how in the preseason, the management didn’t have faith in Mattingly to start Pederson, so they traded away Kemp. It’s a fun theory. One that might have a morsel of truth, but I think this trade might backfire. Here’s a scenario for our five girl readers: imagine you were trying to get your man to change their yellow-pitted t-shirt, so you remove all the stained t-shirts from their hamper and throw them away, even his Bob Marley Buffalo Soldier t-shirt. When he realizes all his stained shirts are gone, what does he do? Does he wear the new shirts you bought him? Or does he scribble an oddly racist-looking Bob Marley on a hand towel and tape it to his chest? Mattingly could play Alex Guerrero at third with Uribe gone, but Justin Turner had started at 3rd base five times in the last week, not Guerrero, even with Uribe still in LA, and Callaspo is a 3rd baseman. So Uribe’s gone, but I think Mattingly just wears a masking-taped, hand towel now. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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If I was drafting a season-long fantasy baseball team today, I would target Kolten Wong very early. I remember before the start of the 2014 season, a major media outlet had a debate as to who the best future middle infielder would be. I was hoping one of them was going to talk about Wong, and to my surprise, they did. I was surprised because there was so much focus on future star players like Javier Baez, Francisco Lindor, Addison Russell, and Carlos Correa. We all remember Kolten being picked-off first base to end Game 4 of the World Series against the Red Sox in 2013. Talk about a way for a young rookie’s career to start off! Wong came back in 2014 starting at second base for the Cardinals, only to be demoted to the minors after struggling to begin the season, and was then recalled and performed very well to end 2014. This season, Wong was the starting second baseman for the Cardinals, but batted at the bottom of the lineup. Now he’s batting at the top of the Cardinals’ lineup and has really displayed his talent. So far he’s batting over .300 with 5 home runs and 3 stolen bases. However, he has the potential to hit 20 homers and have 25 stolen bases. When it comes to DFS, I will continue to play Wong at every opportunity. Not too many second basemen have power and speed ability. Robinson Cano is no longer a viable DFS option. Brian Dozier is a power hitter. Ian Kinsler has been an on-base player this season while still looking for his first home run. Jason Kipnis is coming back to his potential self, and as for Jose Altuve, well, umm, all I can say is Wong isn’t there, yet. If there’s a second baseman that can potentially reach Altuve-type ability, I firmly believe Wong could be that guy.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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I was the last one. It didn’t matter what it was, my family was not well flush with the monies so I watched as my friends got the latest and greatest toys and game while I had to wait, and wait, and wait to get the same toy/game if I ever got it at all. On the holidays I wouldn’t open presents, we’d go down to the store and look at what I was going to get later, after getting it on layaway.

But don’t think I was any less thankful. Hey, I didn’t know any better and may have been better off in a lot of ways for having to live that way. But that’s not what I’m talking about here. When I finally did get that toy/game, it was almost always passe’, beyond its value already. Everyone else was onto the next so I made do with what I had.

In DFS, there is a similar, less warm and fuzzy things that happens when folks jump on the trending toy. They chase the previous performance and end up overpaying for what has already happened rather than look to see what was going to be the hot sexy item tomorrow.

Recency bias. It was the same thing I wrote about Corey Kluber last week. I relished the fact that I knew folks were going to steer clear because of his 5+ ERA and the fact that, most recently, he had burned them in games. Everything else was screaming that he was due to get his sexy back, but he was fairly low owned when we rostered him last Wednesday.

It’s not always a bad thing to jump aboard a bandwagon. Sometimes they run on pretty well. Kluber followed up last week’s told-you-so special with another beaut. And Bryce Harper’s heater has gone on long enough to be dangerous to the touch.

Still, chances are if you are paying based on yesterday, you’ll miss out on today. Look at everything, disregard yesterday. If your research says he should be good today, then do it, man, put him on the board! But if things aren’t in his favor, think twice and don’t do it just because he did well yesterday.

The same is true for bad performance. If you see that your guy should be good to go for his matchup, but his recent play looks stinky, don’t hesitate, beat the crowd to the performance and reap the rewards.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?