Fantasy Baseball Advice

I’ve been footballin’ like it’s 2010 over on the other side of Razzball and was happy to get the baseball side of my brain lubed up. You can see Rotoworld’s Drew Silva’s take on the first half of the mock here and the second half here.  And while you’re clicking random hyperlinks, click here and follow me on twitter.  I’d like to give an extra thank you to frequent commenter, Steve, for being a sounding board for my picks.  Blame him for the ones you don’t like and praise me for the ones you like. Got it?  All in all I feel like this team would be a contender if it were a real fake team. Here are my fellow mockaletes:

Eno Sarris (FanGraphs.com)
Auto-Queue (Computer, and great guy to have a beer with)
Drew Silva (Rotoworld)
Steve Gardner (USA Today)
Tim Dierkes (MLBTradeRumors)
Mike Axisa (River Ave. Blues)
Jesse Spector (New York Daily News)
Sam Miller (Orange County Register)
Chet Gresham (Razzball)
Dan Wade (Bleacher Report)
Thor Nystrom (Rotoworld)
D.J. Short (Rotoworld)

1. (9) Mark Teixeira - I feel good about getting Tex at #9.  I thought hard on Matt Kemp because I love me some multi-tool players but Tex has some nice tools himself.  Ok, enough about men’s tools and how much I like them.  In the New Yankee Donkshop, Tex is a great tool to build the rest of your team.

2. (16) David Wright – My first of many value rebound players, Wright is too good to be no good, cuz he lays wood, even in the Metco hood.  Or something.  I don’t feel that great about third basemen this year anyway, so I’m okay to take a little risk with Wright.

3. (33) Brandon Phillips – At this point in the draft I’m thinking, “Donut delivery, it’s got to be feasible, you wake up Sunday morning and want a pastry, but don’t want to get out in the cold…” And I was also thinking, shortstop is weak and Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins are still on the board with four picks before me, but after them it’s a perfect shizz storm of shortstops I’d rather not have.  So as soon as the J.R.’s go, I look toward another weak position and grab the 20/20 stability that is Brando.

4. (40) Justin Morneau - As long as Morneau can stand upright he is good value with the 40th pick.  I think he will and he looks good in a UTIL spot.  Doesn’t it make you feel all warm and fuzzy when you can toss a top guy in UTIL, even if the rest of your team is full of Polancos and Zitos? Maybe it’s just me.  Went with value here.  I shop at Aldis too.

5. (57) Johan Santana – Maybe the Mets made a deal with the devil to win the ‘69 World Series and last season (and a whole lot of other seasons) was God (directed by Pat Robertson) smiting them down.  Maybe.  I’ll lean more toward some bad luck and a rebound year with Santana benefiting from Metco, a good offense, and just plain good pitching.

6. (64) B.J. Upton – I’m loving me some B.J. this year, well, all years actually.  He got off to a slow start last season with his shoulder gone wonky and then never got on track.  He’s risky, but you’re guaranteed the 40 stolen bases and I just don’t see his numbers not moving back to his norm.

7. (81) Josh Hamilton – Yes, this team is starting to look like Comeback Tour 2010, but I’m not grabbing players that have no track record of fantasy goodness.  Hamilton was overrated last season and crapped out.  So what is he now?  The 81st pick? Sure.

8. (88) Raul Ibanez – My outfield needed an old veteran who should start the season well and offset any injuries, schizophrenic episodes, or relapses by his brethren.  I needed another steady, reliable player in a offensive ballpark (looking back at Tex) and Ibanez fits the bill.

9. (105) Cole Hamels – His stuff is still there.  He misses bats.  No, he doesn’t have pet bats that he cares for at home; batters swing and miss when trying to hit his balls, which is good no matter how you look at it.

10. (112) Elvis Andrus – I was short on shortstop having missed out on the J.R.’s so I had to decide if I wanted to keep punting or go for it on fourth down with Elvis up the gut and instead he used his speed to take it all the way, because he’s got what we like to call in the business, upside! Could I have waited on him? Maybe, but I need his stolen bases and I like him, so I took him.

11. (129) Scott Baker – If we see second half Scott all season, I’ve got myself some filet mignon at Taco Bell prices.

12. (136) Carlos Marmol – I like Marmol and his K’s, but not a huge fan of his psyche.  I’m betting on his stuff.

13. (153) Jose Valverde – In a ‘perts league I usually like to grab more closers than I would in a league with my uncle who talks shizz, but is usually too drunk to pick SAGNOF off the wire in a timely manner. I won’t be owning the top closers unless they really fall so I don’t feel bad about grabbing multiple closers late.

14. (160) Geovany Soto – I’m hoping that Soto sans baby fat will have a better shot at staying healthy and not sucking.

15. (177) Francisco Cordero – Going back to my grab closers late in a ‘pert league, but in retrospect grabbing another starter might have been smarter since closers lasted a little longer than I thought they would.

16. (184) Garrett Jones – Meh, not the greatest pick of all time, but I like his value this late if he can repeat last season, but in a full season.

17. (201) Johnny Cueto – He’s got the ability, now he just needs to stay healthy and complete a full season with his best stuff.  He’s worth it as a late flier.

18. (208) Neftali Feliz – The guy is Matt Weiters and Roy Hobbs wrapped in a cheesy gordita.  That’s some yummy béisbollin! If this were a real fake team I might have to drop him for some waiver wire wonder, but he is too awesome not to take as my last pick.

During our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings, we’ve gone over so many flippin’ players I’ve lost track.  This is, I believe, the top 60 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball, but you’re best to check the title to be sure.   If it is indeed the top 60 starters, then you’re in luck.  Only a few more top 20 rankings posts.  What is it, February?  March?  Why don’t I have an app for this?  Or do I want a hashtag?  App ‘n Hashtag would be a good name for a 50s style diner with wifi.  As with the other rankings posts, tiers and my projections are mentioned.  Anyway, here’s the top 60 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball:

41. Clay Buchholz – This is a continuation of the last tier on the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball post.  This tier ends at Strasburg.  I call this tier, “Fliers that I’m willing to give a chance.”  Some might be confused by Cueto ranking before Buchholz, so let’s compare those two.  As linguists intended it, we’ll go B before C.  In 2009, K/9 — 6.65 vs. 6.93, BB/9 — 3.52 vs. 3.20, 25 years old vs. 23 years old, 190 2/3 career MLB innings vs. 345 1/3 IP.  2010 Projections:  14-9/3.95/1.34/155

42. Ervin Santana – Ervin’s 2009 was similar to Scott Baker’s.  He came out of spring training with an arm injury, but, unlike Baker and Stella, Ervin never found his groove.  This late in drafts I’m willing to overlook Ervin’s Gorilla Ponson impersonation last year.  2010 Projections:  15-8/3.75/1.28/185

43. Neftali Feliz – Already went over my Neftali fantasy.  2010 Projections:  9-6/3.30/1.26/120 in 20 starts.

44. Jorge de la Rosa – His appearance in this tier is solely because of his Ks.  Don’t believe me?  Throw your computer out the window, there’s no talking to you.  And to think we were friends.  2010 Projections:  12-9/4.15/1.34/200

45. Brett Anderson – Brett Anderson, the future ace, is not without caveats in 2010.  Innings jump was big in 2009.  The reason why I’m willing to take a late flier on him instead of, say, Hanson is because Anderson will come much cheaper in drafts.  Second caveat, Anderson really only had two months where he looked like an ace.  Though those two months were in the 2nd half.  If Hughes is in the rotation, I would switch these two.  So, I would take a shot on Anderson late, but I’d also be aware of the risk.  2010 Projections:  10-11/3.70/1.27/165

46. Phil Hughes – Won’t know until spring training, but my guess is it will be Joba in the rotation and Phil Hughes as a top 20 middle reliever.  Even if Hughes gets the starting spot, I could see him being limited on a strict innings count.  2010 Projections:  10-4/3.50/1.22/130 in 130 innings.

47. Joba Chamberlain – About time the Yankees take the ignition lock breathalyzer off the steering wheel and let Joba take his arm out for a drive.  Or put him in middle relief.  As of post time, it’s not clear yet.  2010 Projections:  9-6/3.85/1.34/160

48. Stephen Strasburg – Already went over my Strasburg fantasy.  The reason why I have him after Feliz is because of the kid gloves the Nats are going to be using with him.  The reason why I have him above some known commodities is because if he somehow breaks camp with the Nats, you’ve won the draft lottery.  Right after the announcement, you’d be able to trade Strasburg for a tidy haul.  Say, Billy Butler.  Now twirl your mustache!  2010 Projections:  6-8/3.65/1.27/110

49. Edwin Jackson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Romero.  I call this tier, “Guys that I’m not drafting, but might pick up on waivers during the season if the opportunity presents itself and it probably will.”  When Edwin Jackson was traded, I said I might own him in the right circumstances.  I’m officially retracting that.  On closer inspection, I don’t want anything to do with him outside of matchups.  I was clouded by the thought of facing the Giants and Padres, but he was far too lucky last year.  I don’t think Edwin will be quite the 2nd half pitcher he was last year — 5.07 ERA — but I think that’s closer than the pitcher he was in the first half — 2.52 ERA.  Wouldn’t be shocked to see him have completely ownable stretches, but overall meh.  2010 Projections:  10-12/4.15/1.36/140

50. Joe Blanton – I owned Blanton for a good stretch last year.  Looking at my active stats, in 81 2/3 innings, Blanton gave me 6 wins, 3.31/1.18/59.  Awesome, terrific, adjective, but Blanton’s a pitcher you get off waivers.  You don’t draft Joe Blanton.  2010 Projections:  14-12/4.25/1.32/140

50 1/2. Jair Jurrjens – UPDATE:  Meesa tinks Jar-Jar having an MRI in the preseason is reason enough to ignore him.  Then throw in potential regression and it’s not worth the ulcer.  2010 Projections:  10-9/4.35/1.22/110 in 160 innings

51. Scott Kazmir – The Angels are planning on Kazmir filling in Lackey’s spot in the rotation.  Injury risk — check!  Falling K-rate — check!  Overrated for fantasy — we have a winner for the crapfecta!  2010 Projections:  14-9/4.30/1.38/145

52. Derek Lowe – The days of being able to own Lowe from start to finish look to be over.  He’ll have matchups appeal here and there, but you don’t want to draft him.  2010 Projections:  12-11/4.15/1.35/100

53. J.A. Happ – Meh K-rate, high walk rate, bad home park, lucky BABIP, insane amount of men left on base… Mr. Caps Lock says, “HAPP WAS THE LUCKIEST PITCHER IN THE MAJOR LEAGUES LAST YEAR.”  At some point it will Happen.  You don’t want to be there when it does.  2010 Projections:  12-10/4.35/1.32/155

54. Rick Porcello – A below 5 K-rate and a 45 inning bump from ‘08 secures his place in the Do Not Touch tier.  2010 Projections:  9-12/4.15/1.32/75

55. Daisuke Matsuzaka – I gave up on Dice-K after his unbelievable 2008.  And by unbelievable I mean improbable, not superb.  2010 Projections:  10-7/4.50/1.38/150

56. Joel Pineiro – I’d recommend you hire Gary Glitter as a babysitter before advising you to draft Pineiro.  2010 Projections:  11-10/4.15/1.34/90

57. Randy Wolf – One the hardest things about doing these rankings is going over guys that treated you so well last year then having to write about how you don’t want any part of them in the new season.  When Wolf was traded, I said, “In 2009, Miller Park played as a pitcher’s park, but it’s more neutral than that. It’s no Coors, but it’s also no Metco.  Either way, Wolf was fortunate to have a 3.23 ERA last year and probably shouldn’t be counted on for anything below a 3.90.  Ownable, just not terrific.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2010 Projections:  14-12/4.05/1.20/155

58. Ricky Romero – To be totally honest, I almost put Romero in a tier with guys I would draft, but in the end, he’s not especially dominant, he’s in a tough division and he’s injury prone.  In an AL-Only league, I’d draft him, but in mixed leagues, I’d stay away.  2010 Projections:  9-13/4.50/1.48/155

59. Tim Hudson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Correia.  I call this tier, “Boring, but ownable.”  On one hand, Hudson’s a reliable vet with a mid-3 career ERA, while a little light on Ks.  On the other hand, Hudson is returning from Tommy John surgery.  That brings with it risk similar to playing with your iPasties app near Carl Monday.  Face it, there’s really no sure² thing this late.  2010 Projections:   13-5/3.55/1.32/145

60. Kevin Correia – The first HodgePadre to make the starter rankings.  This goes without saying but it’s not going to be a fun year to watch the Padres.  Depressing, actually.  They should broadcast every game with Warren Zevon’s Keep Me In Your Heart playing in the background.  2010 Projections:  10-12/3.65/1.28/135

In our ongoing 2010 fantasy baseball rookie look, we bring you a name I went over as recently as August in a Neftali Feliz keeper post.  Thank you for reading from The Department of Redundancy Department!  Because he still falls in the rookie category (under 50 innings pitched), I must, I must increase my Neftali Feliz fuss.  Feliz went to the Rangers from the Braves in the trade of Teixeira.  (Also included in that trade was Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison and Jarrod Saltymochachino.  This was the last major move by Schuerholz.  It’s like when your boss at El Pollo Loco tells you in the morning that today is your last day, then you replace the shredded cheese with your pubic hair and rob the cash register, leaving a note that says, “It was the new guy.”  Schuerholz left that note for Frank Wren.)  Feliz proceeded to cruise through the minors — in 276 innings, he had 325 Ks and a 3.03 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.  Then he dominated in the majors — in 31 innings, 39 Ks, 1.74 ERA and a 0.68 WHIP.  What’s next?  The moon!  Gravity’s for junk ball throwers!  But, first, let’s look at what we can expect from Neftali Feliz in 2010 fantasy baseball.

10-7/4.42/1.35/102 in 128 and a 1/3 innings.  Wow, pretty specific on the predictions, huh?  Actually, those are David Price’s numbers in 2009.  I tell you that line so you keep expectations in check.  Neftali Feliz is going to be a great one.  I think there’s a good chance that he can throw 130 innings in 2010 (whether the Rangers start him in the rotation or bullpen or bring him up in June is still unknown).  He’s capable of a terrific 130 innings.  There’s a chance, at least.  Chance being the key word.  Rookie pitchers, even ones that have nasty stuff, are a risk.  Don’t expect a sub-2 ERA and a sub-1 WHIP over the course of the season.  The nice thing is he can strikeout one guy per inning.  There will likely be hiccups.  There always is.  There’s also rumblings that he might get moved to the bullpen to be groomed to be the closer.  I doubt it happens, but those are rumblings you should be aware of.  To be conservative, I’d say Neftali Feliz’s 2010 is 130 innings with a 3.30 ERA and 120 Ks.  Definitely someone that can be a solid number 3 to 4 in fantasy.  Upside, I’d say his 2010 looks like Tommy Hanson’s 2009.  So if you can get Feliz, you should be happy. (Spanish pun point for Grey.)

The G-Sizzle Fizzle loses more carbonation as we head into September.  Grady Sizemore will undergo surgery prior to the end of the season.  This means you will lose him at some point this month.  The longer the Indians push him the more of a chance that he may not be ready for spring training.  The Indians are playing for $23 worth of trinkets right now so this is a no-brainer for them.  And a no-brainer is the Indians’ management specialty.  They called up Michael Brantley to eventually fill-in full-time for Sizemore.  Last night, Brantley played left field (went 2-for-4, batted 9th).  In 115 games in Triple-A, Brantley had 43 steals.  He’ll probably be a liability on average, but for those steal-starved teams out there — SAGNOF!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Hanley Ramirez – Left with a tight hamstring.  Had one of those last Thanksgiving on the Hormel.  Had to chew around it.

Michael Young – His hamstring is a little more serious with a strain.  If I had to guess, I’d say he’s headed to the DL.  Though, knowing the way Young loves his 200 hit seasons, he may just play gimpy.  Hehe, I said gimpy.

Neftali Feliz – Has one earned run, 26 Ks and ONE WALK (caps for emphasis and the guy reading over your shoulder) in 19 and two-thirds innings.  Holy heffin hey!

Josh Hamilton – 2 HRs yesterday to bring his season total to ten.  Almost as big a bust as the one he was seen licking whipped cream off of.

Chris Davis – 5-for-8 in yesterday’s doubleheader with a homer.  And no strikeouts!

Tim Hudson – Last time he pitched in the majors, I titled the post, “Whoscow for the Hudson,” and he went off to see, Dr. Freeze.  (Oddly, in the post where Hudson was injured, so was Michael Young.  They’re cosmically linked, I tell ya.  Kismet, I say.  When Michael Young slides, Tim Hudson’s pants get dirty.)  Hudson’s line this game (5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 Ks) is almost exactly what I would imagine you’ll get from him the rest of the season.  Iffy five inning games.  Worth it in some leagues, not in others.

Jorge Posada – 2 HRs yesterday.  Why doesn’t he have a “de la” in the middle of his name?

Carlos Guillen – It pains me to keep saying nice things about Guillen, yet here he is again with another homer.

Andy Marte – Now has 4 homers in the last seven games.  I dropped some schmohawk for him in one of my leagues.  This is a trust exercise.  Just fall into Marte’s arms.  He’ll catch you.

Carlos Carrasco – 3 IP, 6 ER.  Was in my September call ups Markie Post-thingie.  I said I liked him for next season.  Never said I liked him for this one.  Okay, I did like him for this one, but that was last December.

Cole Hamels – 9 IP, 3 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Hey, Cole, nice of you to join us for September.

Jonathan Sanchez – 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks.  His walks aren’t a thing of beauty, but you know what is?  His collection of air sickness bags? No, I’m going to tell you, random italicized voice.  His Ks.  He has 145 Ks in 132 1/3 innings.  That makes him ownable everywhere.  Well, except in 4 x 4 leagues, but no one plays them anymore, do they?

David Wright - Went 1-for-3 in his return as he wore an American Gladiator helmet.

Andy Sonnanstine – 4 IP, 3 ER, 2 Ks.  Glad to see he didn’t lose his lack of stuff in the minors.

Garrett Jones – Another homer.  Argh, I’m actually excited for Pirates.  Okay, pop quiz, hot shot.  Who’s been more valuable this year, Garrett Jones or Ryan Ludwick?  You infer the answer.

Mike Carp – Called up for the M’s and should see a decent amount of time.  He has moderate pop, not a great average.  Outside of deep leagues (>12), I’d just wait to see.  (BTW, that’s a greater than symbol and a twelve.  Not some kind of weird teenager texting language meaning a heart next to a coat hanger or something.)

Randy Wells – 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER.  Has a 2.90 ERA on the year with 133 1/3 innings.  Is his name in the Rookie of the Year convos?  Hmm, I just did, didn’t I?  For what it’s worth, and I guess it is worth something since you’re reading this, I think Wells is going to slightly disappoint next year.

Jeff Manship – 5 IP, 1 ER vs. the Called It A Day White Sox.  Besides having a last name that sounds like a cruise hosted by Adam Carolla, Manship has good control and decent K-stuff.  Listen, if the Twins start him, he’s probably better than most.  He’ll have the same growing pains as most rookie pitchers, but could have matchup potential.

Jorge de la Rosa – 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  Another solid start from The dlR.  I hope the Rockies miss the playoffs just so dlR’s innings stay low(er) and I can draft him without worries next year.

Carlos Gonzalez – 1-for-4, HR and steal yesterday.  You know what I really like here?  Besides the homer, he was only on base once (a walk) and he stole a base.  That’s the kind of initiative we need in September.

Clayton Richard – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  If he didn’t pitch well in Petco vs. the Nats, there would have been problems.

Vicente Padilla – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  It’s nice in the NL West, ain’t it?

Felix Pie – HR yesterday for his 4th homer in the last eight games.  No idea where the power is coming from.  Maybe Aubrey Huff left behind some corked bats.  Whatever the case, when the player’s hot, grab them.  By the time I write about him in the Buy section of Friday’s post, Pie may no longer be hot.

Adam Jones – Left the game with an ankle injury.  Is it me or is this guy injured every other week?  Maybe he’s doing it to get a prescription of medicinal marijuana.

This week we’re starting a new weekly column that will be here every Thursday, it will be all about fantasy baseball keepers. Since many fantasy baseball keeper leagues don’t decide on their keepers until the start of the new season, I figured I’d go over some fantasy baseball keepers from now until next spring.  These aren’t guys that are obviously keepers.  You won’t find Hanley or Pujols here.  These are guys that you might be able to grab in deep leagues and hold onto for next year on the cheap.  Who doesn’t love a bargain?!  My dead grandmother loved a bargain.  Her death and bargains were in no way related.  Filene’s Basement was completely acquitted in that case.  Though me and Grandpa we believe.  We believe…

I don’t think Neftali Feliz will have much value this year as he’s currently being used.  But this isn’t about this year.  This is about fantasy baseball in the year 2010, when we’ll be able to take a pill that tastes like a four course dinner.  The lack of Neftali Feliz value this year is actually making him even more attractive for next year.  The Rangers are going all anti-Dusty up in this mug and limiting Feliz’s innings.  In 2008, Feliz threw just over 127 innings.  This year he’s on pace for nearly the same amount of innings.  Nice.  We don’t want him worn out in 2010.  I see the worst case scenario being the Rangers hold him down in the minors next year until May.  Best case, he’s up from jump street and gives you numbers comparable to Johnny Cueto pre-All-Star Break with more Ks.   In deep leagues, I’d absolutely keep Feliz if the price were right.  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers for 2010:

Carlos Gonzalez – Sure, he’s hot right now.  But let’s put that aside.  Because as I tell my girlfriend, beware the small sample size.  Gonzalez has been a five-tool prospect for a while now.  (Five-tool doesn’t mean he should make some weird fetish porn.)  He can hit 20+ homers and steal 20 bags as early as next year.

Billy Butler – Butler’s moobs seem like they’ve been in puberty forever.  Sprout some hairs and mature already!  I don’t think Butler’s going to explode for 40 homers next year or suddenly have any speed, so don’t take this the wrong way, but Butler’s an early favorite to be on all of my teams next year like Reynolds this year.  If he can get out of his training bra next year, he could be a cheap 90/25/110/.320 guy.