Fantasy Baseball Advice

Lance without an ACL isn’t NE good.  With a torn meniscus, Lance Berkman is only out for six to eight weeks.  “Hello, I’m Keith Morrison of Dateline.  Today’s story is about an aging vet.  A vet that the media began reporting as finished.  Done.  But where this vet saw the end, his knee saw just a setback.  Also, on tonight’s Dateline:  Can you get cancer from playing with your cat?”  Berkman and I haven’t always seen eye to eye.  Last year, he berated me in the comments for not believing in him, then disappeared this year when he wasn’t going well.  I hold no ill feelings towards him.  That competitive edge that drove him to compete also drove him to comment on our site.  Last year, A-Rod missed 6 weeks with a torn meniscus.  I’d put him and Berkman around the same level of gimpiness.  So Lance B. coming back around mid- to late-July.  With Berkman out, Matt Adams should have a nice long leash.  I already went over my Matt Adams fantasy.  I wrote it while cringing at contestants on The Next Food Network Star.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Neftali Feliz – To the DL with right elbow inflammation and could be out for 6 weeks or longer.  This is the Rangers simply watching his innings so he’s okay in the playoffs.  Wouldn’t shock me to see him not starting again until August, unless the Rangers start sliding in the division, which seems doubtful without the Angels, A’s and M’s all combining into one super-mediocre team, the Mangelics, then combining all of their wins.

Roy Oswalt – The Rangers are suddenly interested in bringing in Oswalt.  Uh-oh, the Mangelics better bring in Cliff Lee.

Yu Darvish – 4 IP, 4 ER.  He’s only been roughed up twice this year.  Both times vs. the Mariners.  Now, I’m not saying anything funny’s going on here, but… Well, I am.  When I was in Little League, my best friend was the best pitcher in our league and, before a game where we were facing off, he came to me and said he’d groove a pitch for me to hit.  As anyone knows who has played baseball, if you know a ball is going to be right down Broadway, your confidence boosts and you hit the ball hard.  So far, Ichiro hasn’t hit anything well this year, except against Yu.  They’re guilty!  Hmm… Now that I think about it, this will be a good anecdote to get me out of jury duty.

Sean Marshall – Got the one out save yesterday because Aroldis was used a lot recently, and doing 93 in a 55 rather than 99 in a 60 and 6 inches.

Mike Leake – 8 IP, 1 ER, 3 baserunners, 6 Ks while pitchslapping Mike Minor.  Totally solid game from Mike Leake, which sounds like a name Bart would ask for at Moe’s.  His K-rate hasn’t been good and, in most mixed leagues, I’d wait to see more before adding him.

Drew Stubbs – 2 hits, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and 2 homers.  That’s two by four, which is a Hacksaw Jim Duggan Special!

Zack Cozart – 2-for-4 with a homer.  Buh-bye, Freddy Galvis and Dozier or whatever schmohawks I was rocking at shortstop.  I’m back in on Cozart.

Ian Desmond – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and his 7th homer while batting .280.  He’s been so much better than Ryan Zimmerman, and now my blood pressure is higher than Billy Joel’s cholesterol.

Henry Rodriguez – 1/3 IP, 1 ER and was pulled for the Sean Burnett save.  Johnson said he’s had it up to “here” with Rodriguez.  The “here” being about 4 feet lower than Rodriguez throws most of his pitches.  Johnson indicated he could just go to a committee, which never makes anything better from a fantasy standpoint.  I’m gonna hold BB-Rod in my leagues, because Johnson has gone back to him before.  In leagues where you’re desperate for saves, Burnett and Clippard could see opportunities.

Vernon Wells – Has a torn thumb ligament.  Will be out for at least 2 months.  The Angels are in talks to acquire Adam Lind.  I’m kidding.  The Angels have labeled their Blue Jays iPhone contact as “Telemarketer” so they never answer the phone when they call.

Jerome Williams – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 10 baserunners, 2 Ks.  You, “Coming off a bunch of solid starts, then Jerome gives up ten baserunners in 6 1/3 innings against the A’s in O(that’s a big stadium).co.  What gives, Grey?”  I streamed him, that’s what.

Miguel Montero – Left yesterday’s game with a groin strain, which is more painful but less annoying than a strained groan.

Chris Davis – 2-for-4 with his 6th homer.  He’s hitting .350 over the last week and, like Mr. Chiquita Banana, he usually hits them in bunches.

Jason Marquis – Twins designated him for assignment.  Man, the Twins are pink-slipping more people than Victoria’s Secret.

Ryan Braun – Homered then left yesterday’s game (which still might be going) with some groin tightness.  I used to get that whenever my 10th grade English teacher called on me.  Very embarrassing.

Irving Falu – 1-for-3, hitting .415 since his call-up.  Irving Falu, who sounds like the only Jewish Hawaiian in the world — “Hey, guys let’s have a luau, but instead of burying a pig, let’s bury a brisket,” could fill in while Getz gets (stutterer!) better from his rib injury.

Felipe Paulino – 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Yes, you should pick him up.  Yes, now.  This will be here when you return.  If you want the gist of the rest of the post before you go, here, “And that’s me quoting me!  C) There is no C.  Schmohawk, yawnstipating, hot schmotato… SAGNOF!”  Now go!

Jeff Francoeur – 4-for-4 on Sunday, a homer on Monday, on your team on Tuesday.

Orlando Hudson – White Sox announced that Hudson would be their 3rd baseman.  I’d rather Orlando who ran the strip joint on The Wire be my team’s 3rd baseman.  The White Sox were seeking a vacation from 3rd base mediocrity and settled on the lamest choice possible – Orlando.

Jeremy Hefner – Will be taking over Miguel Batista’s spot in the rotation while he’s on the DL.  Hefner sounds like a Playboy heir, but his career AA/AAA stats (6-7 K/9, 2-3 BB/9) look like he’s more of a hustler.

Brian Roberts – Said he was close to starting a rehab assignment.  On a side note, his picture looks like he saw the Ghost Of His Former Self.

Jose Reyes – 4 for his last 10 with 3 steals.  Hey, the fifteen minute handshake that ends with Ozzie lighting a fire under his ass is working.

Austin Kearns – 4-for-4, 2 RBIs, and a steal as he started in left field.  With Gaby causing the Marlins Triple-A affiliate to build a women’s locker room and Logan playing 1st base, Kearns might see time in the outfield.  Really only an NL-Only play for now.

Giancarlo Stanton – 1-for-4 as he crushed Jamie Moyer with a grand salami.  Hey, Giancarlo, I like cougars too!

Matt Garza – 3 IP, 7 ER. Ouch… Wait, what?  Oh, God, I’m bleeding from all sides!  Please, make it stop!

Bud Norris – 7 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 8 Ks as he lowered his ERA to 3.14.  I’ve been telling you to pick him up since April.  We’re good, right?  All right, cool.

Chris Johnson – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 5th homer.  Nothing says desperation like picking up Chris Johnson before he gets around the bases.  Chris Johnson, welcome to the Grey Albright All-Stars, feel free to use my lineup for your bathroom.

Jed Lowrie – 3-for-4 with a slam (7) and legs (2).  I’m getting people asking me in the comments if they should drop him.  Seriously, what do you want at MI?  He’s been better than Robinson Cano!

B.J. Upton – 1-for-4 with a double that was overturned into a homer.  I once had a two bagger overturned into a homer and that also involved a B.J.

Cory Leubke – Scheduled for Tommy John surgery after taking a few weeks to get a few different doctors’ opinions.  Too bad opinions aren’t like elbow tendons.

Cody Ross – Out for two months with a fractured bone in his foot.  If you have two first names, you should have four feet.  Cust kayin’.

Clay Buchholz – 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER to raise his ERA to 7.84.  Anyone that dares own him in fantasy knows his nickname should be Butthurtz.

Will Middlebrooks – 3-for-5, 1 RBI.  Now with the Ross injury, the Red Sox are leaning towards keeping Middlebrooks in the majors.  I can’t imagine why.  Their outfield yesterday was Che-Hsuan Lin, Marlon Byrd and Daniel Nava.  One guy who wasn’t even a starter on his college team (Nava), one guy who the Cubs couldn’t wait to lose (Byrd) and one guy Red Sox fans are deluding themselves about because his name looks like Lynn and he likes rice.

If I were the type to gloat, I’d say I told you to not draft David Wright.  I’m not that type of fantasy baseball ‘pert though.  Nah, I simply get satisfaction from not owning him anywhere and watching as teams that do own him scramble looking for replacements.   ….Okay, it’s similar to gloating, but it’s not the same thing.  With his sudden proneness for injuries, Mets fans may reflexively be chanting ‘Larry’ when he comes to bat now, which may not be for a while since he has a fractured pinkie.  He’ll need to wear a splint and the Mets are saying he’s out indefinitely, but we’ll know more later today.  In the meantime, the Mets pitching coach will be teaching Wright how to throw a splint finger.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Mike Morse – Shutdown after having renewed pain in his lat.  There’s no timetable for his return.  Real World Situation Alert:  Your boss at Shakey’s says he appreciates the way you put the “Happy Birthday” messages on the giant billboard out front, but there’s no timetable for a promotion.  How does that make you feel?  Okay, now how do you feel about Morse?

Clayton Kershaw – 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 7 Ks.  I miss owning him.  That is all.

Andre Ethier – 2-for-4 with his 2nd homer in as many games.  I’m not saying he’s not bouncing back and I’m not yelling fire in the theater of Razzball, but he did hit .385 last April.  Things that make you go hmm…

Austin Jackson – 1-for-2 with a homer, now batting .563 with a downright weird BABIP over .750, which has Jackson’s owners saying keep Austin weird.

Neftali Feliz – 7 shutout innings (6 baserunners, 4 Ks) in his first start (albeit against the Mariners).  The Rangers convert relievers better than missionaries convert natives.

Edwin Encarnacion – 2-for-3 with the home run and 2 steals, which I guess is a slam and legses.  Legii?

Kyle Drabek – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks.  With starts like this he should stay in the Blue Jays rotation, but remember he’s got potentially-yet-to-be-unrealized-potential-that-might-not-be-potential-anymore potential.  The potential is there, though.

Matt Moore – 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners (5 walks), 4 Ks. You have a team that has a leadoff hitter hitting over .500, Miggy and Fielder hitting over .400 and you give 5 walks… Yeah, I’d be happy with only two earned runs too.

Dustin Moseley – His MRI revealed that his shoulder has extensive damage.  And that’s how one goes from a Hodgepadre to an “Oh Fudge” Padre.

Carlos Beltran – Hit his 3rd HR of the year.  Must be the combination of knowing he’s not a Met and won’t have to face Wainwright’s curve ball.

David Freese – 3 HRs and 10 RBIs now in 6 games.  He’s going to be pissed with that hypnotist when there’s no champagne in the clubhouse after their next win.

Lance Berkman – Says he has a tender calf.  Aw, ain’t that sweet?  He should sing it lullabies.  He also said he should be ready to go by Friday.

Sergio Santos – Cordero will get saves until Saturday because Santos has been excused to attend the birth of his first child.  I hope his wife’s not counting on him to save any mementos from the hospital.

Daniel Bard – 5 IP, 5 ER, 9 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Just when Sale and Feliz get you excited about converted relievers… On the plus side, he only walked one and struck out 6.  If he keeps his walks down like that, he might actually pitch some quality starts.  Of course, he won’t get any wins because the bullpen will blow them.

Kyle Lohse – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Member what I said last week about him being a solid pitcher in April and May?  Yup.

Jayson Werth – 4 for 5 against the Mets.  3 singles, 1 double.  Must’ve been his brother Laynce in the stands that inspired him to such heights.

Ross Detwiler – 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 6 Ks.  He was recommended in our two start pitcher post on Saturday.  The blurb about Detwiler made me laugh, too.  My loud high-pitched annoying laugh that you’ll be hearing more of later today with our newest podcast.

Ian Desmond – 2-for-4 with a homer.  His owners probably can’t wait until he cools off so they can drop him.

Chipper Jones – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and a homer in his first game back.  Otherwise known as the game before he’s injured again.

Tyler Pastornicky – 1-for-3 with his first home run.  Aren’t you glad you punted shortstop and grabbed Pastronicky or Cozart late?  Yeah, I know.  Thank me later.

Lorenzo Cain – Left yesterday’s game with a groin strain.  Usually when one of my guy’s gets injured I get sullen — despondent even! — but, uh, guess who gets more at-bats if Cain is injured?  The ultimate in SAGNOF — Bourgeois!

Blake Beavan – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 3 Ks.  That’s nice; I wouldn’t go near him.

Jordan Schafer – 3-for-5, 2 runs and 3 SBs in 5 innings against Hanson-McCann.  The last time someone stole that much from a Hanson was this chick who stole the Hanson drummer’s virginity during the MMMBop tour.

Chris Narveson – 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Chris Narveson isn’t just The Noid’s Christian name, he’s also a pitcher who I like for certain matchups.  Should be good for a 7+ K-rate and a just-under 4 ERA.

Edinson Volquez – 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 8 Ks.  I wouldn’t say I like Edinson for matchups.  I’d say I like him for all leagues.  He’s in a terrific pitching park where his walks won’t haunt him as bad, get on board!

Derek Jeter – 2-for-6 with a homer the day after going 4-for-4.  Looks like someone’s hitting the Carrow’s for the Early Bird Special.  Minka used to love his enlarged pro stats.

Danny Duffy – 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners (1 hit), 8 Ks.  Granted, it was against the A’s, who have hitters that their own mother wouldn’t draft, but Duffy looked solid but wild.  That is his downfall as of right now, “solid but wild.”

Vladimir Guerrero – In police custody after a bar brawl in the Dominican Republic.  Guerrero said he had nothing to do with the inciting argument and that he was just the designated hitter.

Drew Storen had arm discomfort… About two weeks ago.  He hasn’t pitched in a game since March 7th and had soreness in his biceps playing catch yesterday.  Playing catch?  What, the Nats doing a video for Cat’s in the Cradle?  He should be pitching, not playing catch.  So that’s one red flag.  The bigger red flag with a skull and crossbones is obviously soreness from playing catch.  That’s awesome for a young reliever who was used a lot last year (75 1/3 IP).  Two days ago, Davey Johnson said Storen wasn’t throwing because he had strep throat.  So does he have strep arm now?  Johnson said he’s not worried about Storen.  Davey lies… Davey lies when he cries and implies Storen is still his prize…  In all but the shallowest leagues, I’d grab Tyler Clippard, who sounds like a captain in the America’s Cup.  For those in deeper leagues or feeling light on saves, I’d grab Lidge.  I think Storen will ultimately be fine, but better safe than sorry as they say in the Clichè Hall of Fame, which is located on Main Street in Capital City.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Joe Blanton – Report out of Philly is they aren’t motivated to trade Blanton.  Sounds like when your garbage piles up and you can’t motivate to throw it out.  Maybe we’ll see the Phillies on the new season of Hoarders.

Ryan Howard – Without a walking boot, he took grounders yesterday while sitting on a stool.  Maybe he’s hoping he can be the Bill Cosby of 1st baseman.  “I was taking ground balls with my manager, Man-yoo-el.  Man-yoo-el is great; he gave me chocolate cake!”

Ryan Madson – Threw twenty pitches in a simulated game, then left with pain in his elbow.  Wow, and Dusty hasn’t even managed him in a game yet.  He just points his toothpick at pitchers’ elbows and they go down.  This is starting to sound like Sean Marshall is gonna be the closer for the Reds on Opening Day.  Yes, he should be owned too.

Juan Pierre – Has been caught stealing three times in five attempts in the spring.  Is there anything sadder than a steals-only guy who can no longer steal?  That’s not rhetorical.  Really, is there?

Neftali Feliz – Rangers are reporting that Feliz threw with no issues.  To incorrectly paraphrase Modest Mouse, this is bad news for people who like bad news about starters they don’t want to own.

Carlos Marmol – Will return on Monday.  Will close until July.  Will be traded to a contender to be an eighth inning set-up man.  It’s a feeling I have.

Mark Reynolds – The O’s are talking about trading him.  Looks like the O’s management got the letter in the bottle that was dropped in the Atlantic about thirteen years ago that read, “Go young, you have no chance of competing right now.”

Adam Dunn – Sticking with the newly established donkey theme, Dunn hit two homers yesterday.  In 1970, Boog Powell hit 35 homers and won the MVP at the age of 28.  The next year, he struggled to hit 22, then 21, 11 and 12 before having one final (Berkman-type resurgence) with 27 homers in 1975, then he was out of baseball at the age of 35.  Frank Howard hit 44 homers at 33, then 26 homers the next year and pretty much out of baseball at 35.  Greg Luzinski hit 35 homers at the age of 27.  At 28, he hit 18.  Then nothing for 4 years (had a Berkman resurgence year), then out of baseball at 33.  Mo Vaughn went from MVP contender to retired.  The history of the big-bellied isn’t great when they start to age.  Dunn is 32 years old.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he was out of baseball at the age of 35.  Can Dunn come back and hit 25 homers this year?  It’s possible.  It’s gonna come with a .240 or lower average.  We’re not going to see 40 homers from The Big Donkey again.

Desmond Jennings – Could be out until next week, but he should have plenty of time to be ready for Opening Day.  Or as they call it in the Albright household, O’Jennings Day.

Dustin Pedroia – Left the game after being hit on the forearm.  He didn’t want to leave, but Bobby Valentine insisted.  Then Pedroia nipped at his ankles and Bobby put a cone on his head.  Pedroia should be back in a few days.

Kendrys Morales – In his first action with the Angels since his limp-off home run, he got two hits.  Small victories are good.  They’re especially good for Morales who celebrates big victories like an idiot.

Tyler Greene – The Cards look like they’re going to start Greene at 2nd base and in the leadoff slot (with Furcal somewhere at the bottom of the order).  Greene feels like a guy that someone in an NL-Only league will either get lucky drafting or will want to drop by week two.

Tyler Colvin – Hitting near .400 in spring training.  That means nothing, as does Colvin in most leagues.  However, I wouldn’t be shocked if we get into the first week of the season and Blake is benched (or injured), Cuddyer goes to 3rd and Colvin is playing the outfield and becomes one of the hottest adds.  It’s a thought to stash next to your rolling papers.

Scott Baker – Yesterday, he threw in a minor league game.  So he pitched Twins batting practice?

Justin Morneau – 3-for-33 this spring.  Feels like old times!

Lorenzo Cain – Now has four homers and is batting .486 in the spring.  Cain…Sugar!’s not yet on any of my teams, but I think I might need to reach for him in one league.  Bourgeois, you’ve been Marx’d down!

Billy Butler – Hit his third homer of the spring as he has an insane 1.258 OPS over 39 at-bats.  They don’t call him Mr. Grapefruit for nothing.

Pedro Alvarez – Ah, my old heartthrob, is playing like there’s a reason why he’s not my new heartthrob.  It looks likely M.C. Gehee will be playing 3rd base.  The Pirates get the gas face.

Erik Bedard – Named Pirates Opening Day starter.  The Pirates then added, “If he’s healthy.”

David Wright – Took BP and said, “I feel about as good as I’d feel, I guess, picking up a bat for the first time in a few weeks.  Hopefully it gets better from here result-wise.  But just being out there and being able to go through a full day and a full round of batting practice and not feeling anything, that’s pretty good.”  I’ll read between the lines for you.  ”I was swinging at about 50% against a soft-tossing BP pitcher and I still didn’t really get good swings on the ball.  It was sure nice to see the fellas after going through three weeks of testing done by a Met doctor who had a degree from a med school in Guam.  I wonder if there’s bears in Guam and if they call them Guamy Bears.”

Jon Niese – Got an offseason nose job because Beltran used to make fun of him.  It’s not the first time that a Mets outfielder led to drugs being applied to a Mets pitcher’s nose.

Fausto Carmona – Or as his birth certificate says, Roberto Hernandez Heredia, is scheduled to throw 80 pitches at the Indians’ academy in the Dominican Republic.  Afterwards at the academy, Carmona will take classes like “Ethics In Nomenclature and Age” and “Nutrition:  It’s a Real Word.”

Jason Bourgeois was traded to Royals with Humberto Quintero.  Fun fact:  Did you know Humberto Quintero weighs exactly a quarter more than Humberto Quadtero?  When the trade was announced, Bourgeois said he’d once and for all bring down the tyrannical rule of the Royals and restore a society where Lorenzo Cain lost 75 to 100 at-bats and The Guido Playing 2nd Base lost 100 at-bats.  Bourgeois insists that a free market system for steals is essential to their success.  Then Bourgeois doffed his powdered wig and asked Yuniesky Betancourt to bring him some unpasteurized cheese.  Chop, chop, Piss Boy!  This trade doesn’t flat out kill Cain…Sugar!’s value.  It sure doesn’t help it.  As I mentioned to someone in the comments right after this trade went down, Cain…Sugar! needs to perform well in April to be worth the draft gamble and if he performs well, then he’ll play and Bourgeois will see at-bats at 2nd or all over the field.  I don’t think Bourgeois is worth a grab in mixed leagues yet, but he can quickly get on radars because of his ability to steal.  SAGNOF!  If you were looking at The Guido Playing 2nd Base for a late round flyer, he’s still worth it too.  He’s in the similar predicament as Cain…Sugar!.  If Giavotella hits in April, he’ll get playing time.  If he didn’t hit, you’d drop him with or without Bourgeois.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Joakim Soria – Headed for Tommy John surgery.  It’s fine to drop him in all leagues, except leagues that have a category for damaged ulnar collateral ligaments.  In that league, you’ve got an early lead!  Go pick up Brandon Webb in case he latches on with a team.  There’s still been no clarity on the Royals closing shituation.  Holland’s better, Broxton has experience, Crow doesn’t seem likely in front of either guy.  I’m going with Holland first, and both of them in some leagues where I feel light on saves.

Derek Jeter – Has a minor calf injury.  If he had a major calf injury, I’d say, “Don’t have a cow, man!”  And we’d laugh.  Oh, would we laugh.  You and I.  Are you gonna finish that peach pie?  You know Grey likes peach pie?  Jeter should return by Friday.

Nick Swisher – Left a game with groin tightness.  In related news, A-Rod gets groin tightness when he looks at Jeter.

Daniel Bard – When the Sawx first announced Bard would start, here’s what I said, “The Sawx are toying with the idea that Daniel Bard should be in the rotation rather than as the closer.  To incorrectly quote Gordon Gekko, “That’s a toy with fleas.”  As a starter in the minor leagues, his ERA was 7.08 and walked 78 hitters in 75 innings.  Granted, this was early on in his minor league career, but I don’t see the Sawx taking a pitcher that is actually succeeding as a reliever and stretching him out to fail.  Then again, their rotation isn’t exactly five deep.  Hopefully Daniel doesn’t stay *pinkie to mouth* Bard from the bullpen.  Or should I say bullpun.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Now it’s being reported that Bard is headed back to the bullpen.  I’d say I told you so… Well, I just kinda did.

Dontrelle Willis – Orioles signed Willis to a minor league deal.  He was always good with the bat; it’s not too late for him to become a herbathrowdite.

Ryan Braun – Has a groin injury that he blamed on FedEx.  He should be back in the next few days, assuming FedEx gets their shizz together!

Michael Morse – His lat strain may cause him to miss a few games at the start of the season.  I’m not concerned at this point.  If he misses a week in April, it’ll all be forgotten by May.  Or beep, beep, dot, dot, slash in Morse code.

Neftali Feliz – From the files of, “Actually interesting news if I didn’t tell you to not draft him anyway,” Feliz has shoulder issues.  A closer moving into the rotation + shoulder problems = Gummi Worms.  Shoot, I did that math wrong.  It was supposed to add up to “Stay away from at drafts.”

Chris Carpenter – Felt neck discomfort yesterday.  Now seems all but certain that he’ll start the year on the DL.  Carpenter’s fans feel like it’s a rainy day or Monday.

Kyle Lohse – Will start Opening Day for the Cardinals.  Hey, Cards fans, there’s still a chance to go 161-1!

Hisashi Iwakuma – Will start the year in the bullpen.  M’s rotation will be Felix Hernandez, Jason Vargas, Hector Noesi, Blake Beavan and Kevin Millwood.  Hey, M’s fans, there’s still a chance to go 20-142!  On a side note, Rudy came up with a Mariner version of the Hodgepadre for our glossary… A Marginer.  A Marginer is any mediocre pitcher on the Mariners that’s worth owning when they start in Seattle.  Similar to Hodgepadre.  Most Marginers are Homeschoolers.  Not to be confused with ex-Mariner closer Mike Schooler.

David Wright – Word out of Port St. Lucie is, doesn’t Port St. Lucie sound like an after-dinner drink?  Also, Wright could play this weekend.  I don’t think he’s out of the woods yet.  And I’m not sure if the breadcrumb trail out of the woods is gonna lead to a 60-day DL stint or 140+ games played with weak power because he’ll be nursing an injury, but I’m not excited about either scenario.

Johan Santana – Only gave up one run in six innings, but whatever with that.  I ignore spring stats, but what I’d focus on is he was only in the high-80′s with his fastball.  That wouldn’t even win a SpongeBob at the local carnival.  I still have a hard time recommending him as a late draft gamble.  I think this year’s best case scenario is Johan throws 170 IP and gets about 140 Ks and around a 3.50 ERA.  Basically, you’re hoping for Vogelsong/Mike Leake-type projections.

Orlando Hudson – You shouldn’t even be drafting O-Dog, but if you were thinking about it, he’s having groin problems.  Speaking of groins, Wang’s gonna miss over a month.  (BTW, if this is your first day reading Razzball, we’re not always this fascinated with groins.  Not that we have anything against them… I mean, we’d have something against them if the situation presented itself… Okay, moving on…)

Shaun Marcum – Won’t miss any time in the rotation coming out of the gate because of his previously inflammed shoulder. To summarize in a pithy fashion, Marcum down to start.

Chris Perez – Threw batting practice yesterday and will be more than ready for Opening Day.  You know who this makes happy?  Chris Perez’s son.

Mike Adams – Joe Nathan has looked like a beast this spring.  I’m not using “like a beast” in some cool, hip phrasing.  Do I seem cool or hip to you?  I have a mustache, for crikey’s sake!  I mean, he’s looked like a beast as Mary Shelley would’ve liked that phrase used.  If you heard the podcast yesterday, you know this already.  By early summer, Nathan’s headed for the Disgraceful List and Adams will be the closer.  I’d be more surprised if it happened later than early summer than early early summer.  Glad I clarified that!

Carlos Marmol – Left a game with a hand cramp, but the MRI showed no nerve damage.  To get rid of his cramps, the doctor told him to eat a pint of ice cream and watch Sex and the City reruns.

Last time, on Nerd TV we looked at some SP whose actual Ks didn’t jive with their expected Ks from last season. That’s 2011, for those of you traveling through time while reading this. In case you can’t read minds or remember 70 random characters at a time, I’ve used this formula for the expected Ks:

eK%=(ClStr%*.9)+(Foul%*.5)+(InPly%*-.9)+(InZSwStr%*1.1)+(OZSwStr%*1.5)

Today, we’ll subjectively select some sandbaggin’ and overachievin’ RP for your fantasy baseball draft strategy.

If you missed Part 1, that’s where all your questions were answered about how, why and where the data was pulled.

RP Sandbaggers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Francisco Cordero – 19.9 / 15.3 / 4.6
Coco put up a superb ERA/WHIP combo and his K/9 should’ve been closer to league average than 5.43. This could be partially due to a change in his repertoire, as he induced more GB, chucked 25% less fastballs, and even worked in a curve. He topped it all off with a drop in velocity across the board, a .214 BABIP and a LOB% almost 5.5 points higher than his his career… what the…? His deflated numbers didn’t fool the Redlegs into showing him the money, and they shouldn’t get you all cuckoo for CoCo either, even if he ends up somewhere with closer potential. In case you’re wondering, Mad Dog shows up later on the list at +1.6%.

Jason Motte – 27.0 / 23.5 / 3.5
I’m all in on Motte like cinnamon is to applesauce. It’s time for pun with analogies, kids! His BABIP and HR/FB% were low and lower, but I’d like to think they’re naturally sweetened. Consider 1.2 more eK/9, an improved walk rate and a refined cutter and you’ve got Motte’s-appeal! Hopefully, the bitter taste of TLR’s 2011 non-committal closer endorsement affects Motte’s 2012 ADP such that hand-picking his goodness will be a cheap way to keep the saves doctor away.

Luke Gregerson – 17.5 / 14.1 / 3.4
When he pitched, Huston Street actually sat at +2.5%. If… nay, WHEN he gets hurt and/or traded, the logical place to look is this. Son of Gregor should’ve had a K/9 rate slightly under league average (which isn’t saying much compared to his career 9.3). He also had a low HR/FB rate to go with a dip in FB/CH velocity over the past two seasons. Luke went to the dark side, AKA the slider, 57.5% of the time too. Bode well this does not. Boxberger could get a shot, but with the acquisition of Cashner I think they’d do their best to keep White Castle on ice while they can. Tempura your expectations for a fresh cut backup closer for the Friars.

Kevin Gregg – 22.4 / 19.3 / 3.1
It’s assumed Jim Johnson, who was pretty spot on for eK% here, will assume the closer role rather than head for the rotation. But what if you and me are made into asses? Not much funny business is to be found in Gregg’s numbers, he simply isn’t a good closer. His eK/9 was 9.3, which sounds great in theory. In practice, he continues to hit the zone less, plus fool less batters into taking cuts. Vlurp. If a man points a gun at you and says you have to pick someone besides Gregg, it might be Alfredo Simon. In that case, you should probably pick Alfredo.

Heath Bell – 22.8 / 19.9 / 2.9
Unlike the predecessor formerly known as Leo Nunez, there shouldn’t be any mistake about his identity in the Miami bullpen. Between the improved offense, retooled rotation and his pen-pals, the portly slider should get plenty of chances. The new stadium should actually be a reasonable facsimile of Petco’s dimensions too. Aside from giving up more bad contact, being a bit lucky on BABIP and turning 34, there isn’t a ton that suggests a decline just yet, including this +1.1 expected K/9. If you must have your $12 salad, this one isn’t quite wilted.

Neftali Feliz – 24.0 / 21.4 / 2.6
His K/9 should’ve been less than 9, even with this boost. He’s set to start in the rotation (yes, I realize that’s what pitchers typically do there) despite not having pitched more than 100 innings since 2009, or ever started an MLB game. Texas’ bullpen has potential to be both nasty and fragile, so the move’s likely to stick unless the pen’s really depleted by injuries and/or he himself is. It’s unwise to ignore a player’s will to play through fatigue or injury. It’s also unwise to ignore the risk Neftali could end up infeliz, regardless of his role.

Chris Perez – 17.8 / 15.7 / 2.1
He lost a tick off his velocity, his SwStr%, F-Strike% and GB% dropped, and his O-Contact% took a pretty big jump. If he had ended up with more of what kounts here though (see what I just did there?), he would have been closer to his career lines across the board. I don’t think he’ll return to 2010 form, but there’s definitely room for improvement in his age 27 season. BTW, I’m not Sipp-ing the Kool-Aid on Tony’s +2.1 eK% in case Chris trades his Wild Side Of Perez face for more of his WSOP face.

Carlos Marmol – 32.2 / 30.3 / 1.9
Who has two thumbs and a career BB% almost one and a half times worse than Kevin Gregg? This guy! Not me, Marmol! My control wouldn’t fare any better if I came anywhere near throwing from a mound. I wouldn’t provide around 12 K/9 whilst being wildly inconsistent either. He’ll still get his, despite losing some zip. Just don’t make like a bushbaby when he gets dealt, with no guarantee to close, after the Cubbies pump up his value.

Frank Francisco – 26.1 / 24.3 / 1.8
Frank Frank has a bad (w)rap from being festooned with injuries, but he should fare well with a move to the NL and Citi vs. Arlington or Toronto. His expected K/9 was right around 10 too, like his career mark. If he does get hurt, what’s the worst that can happen? You (and you and you) have to take stabs at saves and a few less Ks from Jon Rauch or Ramon Ramirez, or a few more Ks and a smack from the WHIP of Bobby Parnell? The Mets won’t be good and the backup shituation is far from formed, but all the more reason Frank x 2 = cheap value.

Andrew Bailey – 25.8 / 24.1 / 1.7
Speaking of guys who can’t stay healthy… when he is, Bailey’s the cream. He just isn’t the shelf stable kind. What Irish luck he did have finally took a normalizing swing, which included missing out on a handful of Ks. Even in a less ideal home ballpark, he’ll put up acceptable stats again. His IP go 83.1 as 2009 ROY, 49.0, 41.2 though, so it’s not like the Sawx won’t know the drill. I can’t help but think they’ll go light on Bailey whether or not Bard floats as a starter. Melancon will get more than a few shots, even before the DL jig comes up, so plan accordionly.

Jordan Walden – 28.1 / 26.5 / 1.6
I don’t know whether Bill James is married, but if he is, Jay-Dub must’ve slept with his wife. I mean, he really doesn’t seem to like this guy and I don’t get it. The Pond wasn’t always still and he liked to go out for walks, but his K/9 should’ve been 10.6. Give the kid a second full year of immersion to get acclimated with the MLB experience and I think he’s got a great chance to be just as valuable without the related cerebral discord.

There are only about twice as many RP Sandbaggers as there are Overachievers, and I know you can’t wait to dig in.

RP Overachievers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Kenley Jansen – 38.7 / 44.0 / -5.3
…sounds like a NASCAR driver, and he likes to throw fast and to the left. With the biggest K% ding of any RP, he still would’ve been champ for expected K/9 on this list. It’s also kinda whack to knock a guy for control issues when he had a sustainabe 1.04 WHIP. Guerra’s K% should’ve been 1.4% higher, but Jansen ought to hammer down the closer role before long. Even with the risk of health issues and burnout from leaving the heater on almost 87% of the time, he could provide value reminiscent of a guy named…

Craig Kimbrel – 38.1 / 41.5 / -3.4
If you prefer to dig for diamonds in the rough as closers, Kimbrel could’ve rewarded your search in spades. An eK/9 of 13.6 still would have made him priceless. His health may not be forever, throwing only the gas and 30% sliders. However, if taking risk on top-tier quality is more your thing, even Kimbrel-lite’s a good bet to net you plenty of the shiny stuff next year.

Sergio Santos – 33.0 / 35.4 / -2.4
“Coo coo coo roo coo coo coo coo!” SS Closer has presumably docked in Toronto. “He should bring the same reliable service to the Great White North, eh?” Not so fast, my Canadian so-called-bacon-eating friend. “Take off, eh!” The former SS turns twenty-nine in twenty-twelve and we’re looking at a singular, pretty good year. His K/9 still would’ve been elite at 12.2, but is he really an improvement over Jansen? Some may say he’s a potential value pick. I say we’ve already seen his upside. “Beauty advice… from a hoser!”

Joel Hanrahan – 20.0 / 22.3 / -2.3
His was like a season’s worth of dream nights out; aggressive with first pitches, gave up contact, and got lucky a lot. He might have found some success cutting back on sliders and dishing more cheese, but I don’t think it’s realistic to expect it remain so tasty. His K/9 was 1.8 below his career rate and should’ve been lower. You could look past that, but you probably won’t like how rosy things are when you’re left with Joe-Han and a dream.

Rafael Betancourt – 29.2 / 30.8 / -1.6
“Duuuude, Rex Brothers IS Denver, man.” Whoa, if you want to spend your dimes on a wild rookie, maybe you’ve had Dawn Wells sending you care packages. The Bro’s -3.3% K% difference was over twice as high too. “High? *giggle* Nah…” I’ll stick with the other natural choice; John… er, the guy in the headline. “Wha? Don’t Bogart the Cheetos, dude.” Speaking of good bets, any snack product that ends in a homophone of -ito probably is one. Don’t read the ingredients on the Dor-itos bag though. Bonus points for Tito’s Vodka.