Fantasy Baseball Advice

What a turd baby of fantasy baseball advice Karabell laid the other day when he revealed his new rankings. Wasn’t it just a few weeks ago that he ranked Webb number one overall? In his recap of his rankings, he hits upon Edinson Volquez, someone he absolutely believed in a few weeks ago. Naturally, after seeing Volquez pitch superbly for the last few weeks, Karabell is moving Volquez up his rankings, right? Nope, just as Volquez starts to look like he’s the real deal, Karabell bumps him down the list.

After a few weeks, he says Jay Bruce is going to be this year’s Braun. Yes, I realize Jay Bruce is the only known offspring of Superman and Wonder Woman, but Braun’s numbers last year were a once in a lifetime deal. To say a hitter, who majored in striking out in the minors, is going to match Braun is dangerous hyperbole.

Later, when Karabell says he’s totally on board with Josh Hamilton, it scares the beejezus out of me, because I have Hamilton on a few teams where Josh has carried the offense and I need him to keep producing. Why would that giant melonhead jinx Hamilton? Ugh. Don’t worry, we shouldn’t pay too much credence to any of this because he listed Nate McLouth as a possible sell-high guy. That’s right, a week after he said McLouth would win his fictitious Fantasy MVP. Hey, Karabell, go get your shinebox!

2008 Fantasy Baseball is similar to every of year of fantasy baseball in its dissimilarity of the similar. Hey, I sound like Dr. Suess after three Coladas. (BTW, I’m not implying Dr. Seuss was a drunk. He seemed like a peyote man to me.) To paraphrase Sinatra, “Fantasy baseball surprises… Yeah, we’ve had a few.” Since it’s almost halfway through the 2008 season, here’s a look at the top twenty fantasy baseball surprises according to me. Who am I? The CEP (Chief Executive ‘Pert) for the number one fantasy baseball blog. That’s who. (Or whom. I can’t ever figure out the difference. I never said we were the number one Who/Whom blog. But if we were, Who would write for it. Or Whom. Or would they have one blog author that was Who and the dissenting opinion would be Whom?) Anyway, here’s 2008’s biggest fantasy baseball surprises:

20. Justin Duchscherer - Why isn’t Scot Shields starting for the Angels? Can’t Broxton go six? Damaso Marte has to be better than all of the Pirates starters, right?

19. Ryan Dempster - At least Dook-sheer was good as a reliever. Seriously, my head is spinning from Dempster’s season thus far. My head isn’t meant to spin!

18. Xavier Nady - Two days after the season started, I said pick him up cause you never know how long guys will stay hot. You are only lying to yourself if you listened to me. I didn’t even listen to me.

17. Cristian Guzman - What gets him on this list? Being less awful than is expected. Tallest midget on the list. (I didn’t use the term “little person” because “little person” groups midgets and dwarfs together. This seems to be selling both groups short. Pun obviously intended. Don’t make me point out the obvious!)

16. Nate McLouth - ADP 194. Yeah, that’s McValue.

15. Jason Bay - Maybe this is only a surprise to me, but I thought he was toast. (Here’s someone who never stopped believing.)

14. Jorge Cantu - More valuable than Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Justin Morneau, Aramis Ramirez, Garret Atkins, Carlos Guillen and the guy he replaced, Miguel Cabrera. Seriously, you could’ve drafted Cantu in the first round and it would’ve worked out for you. Now you figure out this game of fantasy baseball.

13. Jacoby Ellsbury - 34 steals; 36 steals for all Red Sox not named Jacoby.

12. Victor Martinez - Kelly Shoppach would’ve gave you more value. (For those unfamiliar with that name, it is not the name of Zach’s girlfriend in Saved By The Bell, but I don’t fault you for thinking so.)

11. Ervin Santana - Johan, Carlos and Tito move over; there’s a new Santana in town.

10. Miguel Cabrera - Joe Crede outperforming Miggy. Maybe Miggy should’ve stayed fat.

9. Rafael Furcal - He’s pulling a Kotchman and that’s just wrong.

8. Kerry Wood - Still healthy as he vies for Comeback Player of the Year honors. (BTW, recent winners of Comeback Player of the Year are Carlos Pena, Dmitri Young, Nomar, Thome, Konerko and Javy Lopez, so if Kerry makes it to October healthy, I still won’t be excited about him in ‘09.)

7. Troy Tulowitzki - When the injury came, half of me (the Lily Tomlin half) was actually happy I could pull him from my lineup.

6. J.J. Putz - Has made Mariners fan miss Miguel Batista, the closer.

5. Milton Bradley - In the beginning of the year, Milton Bradley would have punched you in your stupid face if you told him he was going to be in contention for a Triple Crown. Why? Because.

4. Carlos Quentin - CQ has performed much better than the crappy Coppola movie of the same name. (Speaking of which, at what point do The Godfather/Apocalypse Now favors end? The Coppola surname has wasted at least 300 hours of my life. And I’m subtracting the two hours for the wine tasting at his vineyard. My buzz was the least he could’ve done.)

3. Cliff Lee - The Mets hiring Zsa Zsa Gabor to replace Willie Randolph would be less surprising than his first 13 games started.

2. Edinson Volquez - I begged with you all to draft him before the year began. (BTW, in the same piece I point out how Karabell was wrong for being down on him. Seriously, he is ESPN’s top fantasy analyst — wow.) Of course, I didn’t even think Volquez would be sitting on the major league lead in strikeouts and ERA.

1. Josh Hamilton - Now the crack of the bat is the only crack Josh needs.

Mike Jacobs hit two home runs yesterday. Baseball Tonight’s Chris Singleton said Jacobs could hit “a lot” of home runs if he stayed healthy. You know what? Singleton has “a lot” of insight. Funny thing happened on the way to June, Mike Jacobs has thirteen home runs. More than Fielder, Tex, Morneau, Pena and Miguel Cabrera. Now I’m not saying Jacobs will be more valuable than these guys, but Jacobs is way more affordable in a trade. He’s a lot like Carlos Pena in ‘07. Both showed power, but lacked consistency and health. Poor average — check. Clouds of doubt about what they’ll be worth at the end of the year — check, check. Both playing in front of near capacity crowds (for a WNBA game) — check. Pena’s last year owners can also attest that if you own him, you’re better off holding onto him, cause you’ll never get value for him. But if you don’t own him, he’ll cost a lot less than the big boys. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Homer Bailey - About to be called up. Remember when he was their most hyped prospect? Since then, Bruce and Votto have had great starts, they acquire Volquez, and Cueto has a spot in the rotation. Don’t expect much from Bailey. He doesn’t really deserve the call-up as he hasn’t corrected his biggest flaw - wildness. He walked 29 in 66 IP at Triple-A. For Bailey’s sake, we hope the expectations are set closer to Fogg than Volquez.

Mark Prior - Shoulder surgery for Prior causing him to miss the rest of the season. In other news, taco diarrhea burns.

Tim Hudson - I was watching the game when he left with his leg injury. It didn’t look that bad, but then again I get these rashes on my leg and I’ve diagnosed myself as having The African Gong-Gong Disease and prescribed myself a wet towelie and two Little Orphan Orange Otter Pops, so I may not be the best person to ask. Leg problems will probably shelve him for a week. Best case scenario, he misses two starts and returns fine. Worst case, he returns too soon and really messes things up by favoring his injured leg. This is some Trapper John, M.D. suspense!

Brain Bannister - One run in 7+ IP. He looks like a good guy to not pick up in mixed leagues.

Troy Glaus - Hit a HR yesterday. LaRussa says Glaus is going to start hitting more home runs now that the weather is heating up. What you need to ask yourself, is this sober LaRussa talking or drunk LaRussa? I think it’s sober LaRussa.

Ian Snell - If you have him still in your lineup, I’m assuming there was a death in the family and you haven’t check your team in a while. Or you’re just dopey. Either way, my condolences.

Nate McLouth - Ended May with a .279 average. That’s a better representation than April’s .330. Maybe Karabell’s intern misread his refrigerator magnets.

Chase Utley - 20th HR/6th steal. I picked him for NL MVP, so I obviously believe. He’s also one of the few guys that I don’t have on any team, but still can’t root against. Take that schadenfreude (Word of the Day)!

Shawn Hill - Gave up an ill-timed home run to… Who am I kidding? No one cares what Shawn Hill did yesterday.

Chad Tracy - Batting fourth, hitting his second home run three days. CoJack will be out at least a week with a quad strain.

JR Towles - Batting .145 with five hits in all of May.

Bartolo Colon - Now 3-0. I still wouldn’t go near him with a three foot churro. (Only partly because waving a three foot churro near Bartolo would be similar to going to a grizzly bear observatory wearing nothing but bikini briefs made of Marshmallow Fluff…. Talk about a Fluffernutter — oofa!)

Alexei Ramirez/Alexi Casilla - Both can provide some value if you’re weak at MI. Also, if one of them books two dates on the same night, they could pull the old switcheroo and send the other guy out on one of the dates, which is a lot easier than bringing both dates to the same place and then running back and forth switching outfits ala Alex P. Keaton.

Adrian Gonzalez - I’m not really surprised he’s still hitting bombs, but I’d like to see him hit them in July and August.

Carlos Beltran - HRs in 2 straight games to boost his season total to 7. If you invested a top pick in him, you’ve got to be hoping this is the start of one of his streaks.

Johnny Cueto - I said I wouldn’t write about him again until he proved himself. Well, 5 IP of no-hit ball pulled me back in, but he’s still giving up fly balls (10) and not making enough people miss (3). Love the upside, but don’t get too excited. Worth holding onto, but don’t be afraid to bench him if the matchup is bad.

JJ Putz - Another horrendous night. 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning. Who does he think he is - Carlos Silva?

Ryan Church - Hit a home run after returning from his concussion. Talking about the concussion, Church had this to say, “I really know how Snuka felt after that Piper’s Pit.”

Looks like someone found time to transcribe Karabell’s refrigerator magnets into a blog post. ESPN’s top fantasy analyst, Eric Karabell, went through his early season favorites to be fantasy baseball’s Most Valuable Players and Cy Young. Now obviously they don’t give awards for this shizz, but Karabell’s playing in his sandbox, so grab a teat and follow along. (He didn’t mention real baseball where his AL MVP preseason choice was David Ortiz. Yes, he’s bonkers.) You have to be an ESPN Hindsighter™ to understand the extent of his nitwititude so I’ll quote the relevant passages here. For Fantasy MVP, he put Hanley Ramirez behind Nate McLouth. Zoinks! I’m Karabell and I’m chewing on a crayon! Now I’ve long expressed caution about Hanley, even going as far as ranking him 5th overall, but Nate McLouth does not have a chance in Yangzou, China in placing in front of Hanley in fantasy worth at the end of the year. Karabell said this about McClouth:

McLouth isn’t running very much, but I think he will, and he’s looking like a 25-homer guy, at least. Like Florida’s Ramirez, he’s no longer leading off, he’s hitting third. This is legit.

Then he puts Berkman at number one. I won’t argue necessarily with that (I could; I just won’t), but listen to this turd nugget:

When Berkman slows down a bit, literally and figuratively, I think McLouth will pass him on this list…

Wow. I can’t imagine he’s not throwing darts at a board. Literally and figuratively. A) McClouth’s hitting third on the Pirates and in that lineup spot he has zero home runs. B) McClouth was a career .248 hitter coming into 2008. C) He isn’t running much, but he will is probably true, but to rank him number two overall on a promise of more steals is asinine. D) I’m moving on before I shove my head into a blender.

Then Karabell lists his fantasy Cy Young candidates. Edinson Volquez comes in 2nd. Now I have Volquez on a lot of teams, so I don’t want to jinx him too bad and this was covered the other day, I’ll just say Volquez is pitching a wee bit over his head right now. The real turd nugget Karabell pinched off was by drinking the Cliff Lee Kool-Aid, who he placed number one:

I think he threatens for 20 wins and keeps his season ERA around 2.50. To me, that doesn’t make him a prime sell-high.

Lee will probably be over 2.50 by June 15th. Granted, Karabell wrote that three days before Lee’s outing where he gave up six runs in five innings. So does that excuse his stupidity? No, it illustrates it. Not to mention, Lee and Volquez placed in front of Webb, who Karabell just listed as the number one overall fantasy baseball player. Not just pitcher. I’m going to now paper cut my eyelids then submerge my face into a shark tank.

Manny Acosta called into Razzball HQ yesterday. Here’s what he had to say, “Upon returnance, John Smoltz can have closer job back. Upon Soriano’s returnance, he can have setup role. Gonzalez wants eighth inning and lefty specialist role? He have it. I’m not a lefty anyway. I wish only good happenings to Mr. Cox, my family, my team and Jesus Cristo. I request Cox do closer by committee until Smoltz returns, because that is the most democratic. Now put me in the sixth inning, so I can avoid this mess. I wish to chillax. I have myself on one fantasy team, and let me say this, ‘I drop myself.’ Now vote Obama!” There you have it, folks. Razzball’s first big scoop. If that doesn’t make us hotter than baby stew, I don’t know what does. Not only has Acosta dropped himself, but he’s also voting Democrat. Anyway, here’s what else I saw:

Royce Ring - Relieved Acosta. I don’t think he’s going to have much value going forward. He’s a lefty specialist, ya’ll.

Jeff Bennett - Relieved Royce Ring retiring rast Radre (okay, a little forced on the alliteration). I have him on one team. The team I’m hoping sucks. Then again, I have Carlos Silva on that team and he only gave up one run against the Mariners. Then again, it was the Mariners.

Buddy Caryle - If The Kouz would’ve reached, Buddy would’ve joined the closer committee. Officially, the Bravos bullpen is filled with options, which makes the Acosta option weak at best. Wait, Acosta’s calling in again, “I told ya. Not interested in closing. Tooooo stressful. And put five ohs on ‘too.’”

Gavin Floyd - *SPOILER ALERT* He’s still not good. Let me put it this way, if he would’ve got a no-hitter, I still wouldn’t have picked him up in any leagues. He’s not a hidden gem that can replace Gallardo or Hill or Smoltz or any other starter you’ve recently lost.

Aaron Harang - Can’t blame him, he pitched well enough to win. Imagine a world where Harang pitched for the Yankees. Now imagine the Yankees played in Petco. Harang’d win twenty-five and would have already dumped Alyssa Milano like three times. Alas, the Reds score no runs every fifth day.

Ben Francisco - He can do what I thought The Big FraGu could do, but he’s going to be doing it in the same crowded outfield so he may not get enough at-bats. If he does get at-bats, he could get to 15/15 and he’s actually already in Yahoo — woo-hoo! But you don’t necessarily want him just yet, except in the deepest of leagues.

Shawn Hill - *looking for positives* Bunch of rinky-dink hits. *looking at negatives* Needs to be more economical. It’s not like he’s striking people out and he’s barely getting through the fifth.

Jacques Jones - Word he might pop up on the Padres or the Marlins. As Chicago once sang, “Look away, baby, look away.” (BTW, I wish Jones pronounced his first name like that black dude from The Real World: San Diego. That’s it; just felt like saying that.)

Wilfredo Ledezma - He’s already gone in my NL-Only league. Why? Cause he’s now the Padres’ fifth starter. Any Padres starter has value because of their home park. He replaces Germano in the rotation. And he begins dating Alyssa Milano by July.

Brian Bannister - This is closer to the type of pitcher he is, not the April guy who everyone was picking up.

Manny Corpas - Struckout Pujols. Sure, it was in the seventh inning, but I wouldn’t count him out just yet.

Felipe Lopez - Oh-for-five with four strikeouts — that’s razztastic.

Orlando Hudson - O-Dog’s hamstring is barking. He didn’t look good on Monday when he was in the starting lineup so it’s not surprising that he was sitting out yesterday’s game.

Austin Kearns - You’re not roping me in this time, Kearns. No, sir. (But he does go on hot streaks and hits home runs in bunches and he just hit a home run and… Oh, he’s roping me in again. I need a support group. Austin’s Kids? The Kearns Trauma Unit? Second Degree Kearns? I don’t know. Rudy probably will come up with something.)

Jhonny Peralta - I like seeing someone batting .219 in May. They’re due. But he’s not exactly a .300 hitter.

Jason Giambi - I really like seeing someone bat .157. But he’s not exactly a .260 hitter.

Robinson Cano - Also batting .157 (weird!). But he’s not exactly Actually, he is better. So what, he bats .310 the rest of the way? .320?

Scott Olsen - I gotta be honest, I kinda wrote him off this year, but he’s always had talent. Opponents are batting .186 against him, but his K/BB is not good and BB/9 isn’t either. A correction could be coming.

Jonathan Sanchez - He gets the Phillies next. I say, no thank you.

Josh Hamilton - If he can steer clear of injuries and crack-cocaine, he could hit 35 in Texas. But, and this is simply hypothetical, if he were to smoke crack-cocaine, I think his power would remain, but he’d probably show flashes of speed. That’s right, Josh Hamilton’s a 35/20 player if he relapses. Downside, rehab group with Dwight Gooden. Upside, first round selection next year. That’s a coin flip if I’m his agent.

Andruw Jones - Batted second yesterday. All I have to say is, “Ha!”

Blake DeWitt - Now has two home runs in two days. Tonight’s was of the inside the park variety. He doesn’t have much upside.

Santiago Casilla - Now has a save to go with his perfect ERA. Huston Street loses a fibula or some shizz by the All-Star break and he’s closing.

Jeff Mathis - Now in a 3-for-28 slump. In the world of catchers who aren’t owned, I like Dioner Navarro.

Stephen Drew - Fourth home run, should be owned in all leagues. Well, not all leagues, cause there are some that only play with the American League guys.

Ryan Ludwick - Let’s assume LaRussa’s hitting the juice again, but even he has to see Ludwick deserves to be in the starting lineup.

AJ Burnett - How about this line: 6 IP, 10Ks, 9 hits, 5 earned runs. Looked like half the team couldn’t figure him out and the other half couldn’t wait to face him.

Carlos Pena - Almost forty strikeouts. Cust kayin’.

Nate McLouth - Nine home runs?! He’s like Andy Van Slyke’s kid brother. All he needs is a prima donna LF.