Let’s look at some potential homerun decliners based on the following “Power Score” or expected homerun (xHR) formula and compare it to their actual homerun totals. Here is the formula:

Plate Appearances(PA)*Contact Rate(Ct%)*Outfield flyball rate(OFFB%)*Homerun per Outfield Flyball ratio(HR/OFFB).

Make sense? Sure it does: How many homeruns does a player hit per outfield flyball? How much of their contact results in an outfield flyball? How much overall contact does a batter make when swinging the bat in a plate appearance? This should provide us with an expected HR total.

The below lists are ranked by the largest actual HR-expected HR differentials. Their HR related performance (PA, Ct, OFFB, HR/OFFB) is listed along with their average homerun and flyball average distance and rank.

Two contingencies worth noting at this time: 1) Our samples size still isn’t huge and 2) We’re not taking into account platoon hitters, i.e. Scott Van Slyke as a right-hand hitter only raking against left-hand pitchers. So when I extrapolate the data, keep this in mind. In other words, if Scott Van Slyke consumed more playing time against right-hand pitchers, there’s a good chance his performance/power would drop off.

Here are the top potential HR decliners (I think you will see the value of this xHR comp immediately):

Please, blog, may I have some more?

So I’ve decided to go on a hiatus from Razzball. It has nothing to do with Razzball itself, as I think this is a great fantasy site, with the best fantasy sports community I have seen. It has everything to do with me trying to limit my time spent on fantasy baseball, because life is getting crazy. I’m still considering writing again at some point once everything settles down [Jay's Note: Please do, you've certainly spoiled us my friend.], but who knows when that will happen. With this post, I decided that it might be helpful to go over a few things I’ve learned during my time here:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

As many of you know, I went in a new direction to get inspiration for what player I will cover.  I took a page out of Who Wants to be a Millionaire’s playbook and I asked the audience.  That audience only has four choices though…you guys had over four hundred.  Here are you results:

Votes 6-30-14

There isn’t much need for a drum roll though, unless none of you read the titles of these things.  Ah yes, Michael Brantley, how your owners love you so.  If you were lucky enough to draft him, probably after 200th overall, you’re getting a great bang for your buck.  Brantley is a top ten outfielder right now, and arguably a top five one.  On draft day, the tenth outfielder was going around twenty-fifth to thirtieth overall.  And the player drafted probably had a name like Giancarlo Stanton, Yasiel Puig, or Jose Bautista.  Just for kicks and giggles, let’s compare Brantley’s season to everyone’s favorite outfielder, Mike Trout:

Player R HR RBI SB AVG OBP
Trout 49 16 54 9 .303 .394
Brantley 49 11 46 9 .320 .386

Looks comparable, if you ask me…

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Well, you should be sorry, Ronald Belisario. You have been pretty rough on your owners since stepping into the closer role, testing the limits of SAGNOF and just how much pain a fantasy owner will endure to capture those elusive saves. Belisario was at it again last night and gave up three hits and two runs to the Blue Jays, recording just one out before being removed from the game. In just 12 innings pitched since inheriting the job, Ronny has surrendered 10 ER on 20 hits with three blown saves in in that time. More like RonaldO-No! Hey, a World Cup pun, how topical. In Belisario’s defense, he did manage eight saves during his stay as closer, but that’s more a testament to Manager Robin Ventura sticking with him this long. Well, Ventura has had enough. Alrighty then, Ventura, who’s your closer now? Jake Petricka finished out the game last night and notched his second save of the season. Petricka has a 2.08 ERA and 1.27 WHIP on the year and looks like the most likely choice to take over the closer role. Javy Guerra, Zach Putnam and Daniel Webb could also be names to watch and see chances were the Sox to go to a committee. Whatever the case, Ronald is out. And although he may not apologize for killing your ratios over the past month, you can drop him now, which is definitely something you won’t have to feel sorry about.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

I don’t know what this world’s come to, but I’m going to discuss the Mariners for a minute; a team that hasn’t been relevant since the lights of the King Dome shone brightly on Jay Buhner’s beautiful bald head. Seattle’s offense has sent gag reflexes into sixth gear in recent past, but some players are starting to come around, especially the sultan of Safeco, Kyle Seager. I’ll gush more about him later, but the Mariners can be a sneaky stack at home, and there are a couple M’s I’ll be all in on tonight. Screw it, keep reading and get my complete roster for the low price of squadoosh.

By all means, if you don’t like what you see, there are always Razzball’s kick-ass DFS tools like Hitter-Tron, Stream-o-Nator, and DFSBot that can help aid in the decision process. Either way, get on over to DraftKings and make precious memories of making money.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

I swear that box score turning blue to alert people there’s something historic going on is the mother of all jinxes. Not to mention, all the people talking about the perfect game. Member when that was a jinx? Since we’re currently living in the Age of Opinion (which is not the Scorsese movie, though if it gets the green-light, Gary Oldman could play the lead), everyone talks about the perfect game while it’s going on. Whether it’s Twitter, Facebook, Pinterest, LinkedIn, Twitbook, PinkedIn. In my day, we never mentioned a perfect game on Friendster! And on my General Gist band page on Myspace? Nary a whisper! Well, Jake Arrieta still pitched outstanding yesterday — 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 baserunners, 9 Ks, ERA at 2.05 — even if the bid for a perfect game came up short. Like Altuve short. Like Kershaw looks at Arrieta’s perfect game bid and giggles. Still, this is about where Arrieta’s been and where he can go. What I said the other day still remains true — his swings and misses are going up, his control is getting better and he’s using his cutter more — a pitch he can dominant with. I’d still look at him in every league. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

The Royals are Daddy Rich from Car Wash or Max Scherzer owed Verlander a favor. “Hey, Scherzer, do me a solid and do a solid on the mound so my Monday start doesn’t look so bad. You feel me? If you do, I got a Ms. Upton to feel you.” Little did Scherzer know that Verlander wasn’t talking about Kate Upton, but about Justin and B.J.’s sister, Misshapen. “Misshapen, your legs are so curvaceous they remind me of the coastline of Africa.” Or maybe Verlander is just spreading something around the clubhouse. Anibal, you better not touch him or I will know it! Scherzer only lost once all of last year at home, which is slightly misleading like I’m saying he is that much better at home. He only lost twice on the road last year and his ERA on the road was almost a run and half lower. Yesterday, it all went to pot — Lincecum, “That’s where I want to go!” — as Scherzer gave up 10 runs in four innings. Leyland was right. Pitchers are like barbecuing pork. You need a lot of indirect smoke to tender up their shoulder and get ‘em right. If this allows a buying opportunity on Scherzer, unlike Verlander, I do think this was a hiccup rather than a long, extended burp. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Happy Hump Day, my Razzballin’ degenerates. I just did that in my best commercial camel voice and GEICO owes me 27 cents. It’s back to the grind and by grind I mean making green on DraftKings. Unfortunately, for your humble-but-nonetheless-handsome Guru, I’ve hit a bit of a cold streak. I believe it was the Greek philosopher Heraclitus that said, “Know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em. Know when to walk away, Know when to run.” However, I’m not foldin’ and I’m not running. Tonight I sacrifice my Steve Balboni bobblehead to the fantasy gods in hopes the cold streak runs hot. I’m almost at my goal of a winter of fun in the sun, umbrella drinks, thong watching and a likely call to the Cancun bail bondsman.

We have 13 games on the evening slate tonight at DraftKings with a few aces on the mound and teams to stack in Colorado, Baltimore and Detroit (stay away rain and random drive-by shootings). I’ll be digging deep into the research and convening with my good friends DFSBot, Stream-O-Nator, HitterTron and Islay scotch to find the best matchups to grow the bankroll. If you haven’t given Draftkings a shot yet, today’s the day you get in the game. Just hit the Razzball promo link to get a first time deposit match and come play with the Razzball gang in a 50/50 contest.

Here are some of my top picks and value plays for Wednesday, June 11.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Cause you got a build up of wax in your eyes and haven’t been digesting the non-verbal medicine I’ve been doling out about Khris Davis, he’s getting a lede. This is coming to you from a tough love perspective, so whatever I say I don’t wish to offend or denigrate. Y’all seem like good people. Some of you I would even consider friends. Friends that I’ve never met and friends that when you called me to make plans I’d lie about other plans I didn’t have to avoid you, but friends nevertheless. You all have good souls. Each and other one of you. Now, it’s time to unload on you. Damn, in the middle of softening the blow, I forgot what the blow was. Well, you should own Khris Davis. I know that was part of it. He’s been out-homering Chris Davis. Everyone knows there’s only one way to spell Khris Davis. Spelling it with a C is for cream puffs. Even that should be khream! Is Khris the answer to your season? Prolly not, but he is capable of 30 homers and he has 10 as of right now. Plus-minus that shizz and you have a bunch more homers in his bat. Oh, and four of those homers came in the last eight games. He is only 26 years old so there might even be a chance here for huge upside. I.e., his ceiling is unknown. All that is known is that he’s hit for power everywhere he’s played. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

You make plans, and the Fantasy Baseball Overlord laughs. I believe that is how the saying goes. Yesterday, Carlos Gonzalez succumbed to his time-honored tradition of hitting the DL. This time it was due to his finger inflammation. I wonder if his finger plumped up like a Ballpark Frank. By the by, you know the secret ingredient that is used for Ballpark Franks to plump up when you cook them, why is that not used in other foods? This seems to be the cure for world hunger. Inject everything and ship it to Africa. “Nice pancake, colonizer, but can you plump it up?” Yes, we can now little African kid! On his trips to Africa, why is Bono not armed with Ballpark Franks? We need some sodium nitrate up in here! On the bright side of things, Corey Dickerson is now definitely going to get everyday looks for at least the next two weeks and I’d guess it’ll be more like three to four weeks. Grab Dickerson! Whew, glad his name isn’t Dick, er, son. On a side note, “precious cargo” is the stupidest Urban Dictionary definition I’ve ever seen. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?