Fantasy Baseball Advice

Giancarlo Stanton has battled injuries and the Marlins’ awkward ballpark this year, but I haven’t completely lost hope. Since arriving in the majors, he’s been a fantastic player in OPS leagues because, aside from his insane slugging, he’s been taking walks at a solid rate. This year’s been different, with Stanton walking a lot less, hitting less of his balls in the air, and less of his fly balls becoming home runs. I have no idea how much of his struggles can be attributed to lingering knee problems, but the fact that the Marlins have played him in a majority of their games gives me confidence that his knee is improving. If he stays on the field, I don’t believe these negative trends will continue because his excellent eye and power are too good to disappear. For the rest of 2012, I’d expect his baseline near .330/.500/.830, or roughly his 2010 numbers. Keep in mind that he already has 57 career home runs, despite being only 22 years old. I believe that he will regularly top a .900 OPS throughout his career, possibly as soon as next year. Speaking of sluggers with slow starts…

Nelson Cruz, an avid historian, has been a long-time believer in Theodore Roosevelt’s sage advice to speak softly and carry a boomstick. He has a relatively low OBP, but offsets this potential shortcoming in OPS leagues with his career .500 slugging. He’s had a weak start in 2012, posting an OPS below .700. There are many numbers that stand out this season. Cruz has been swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone and more pitches inside the strike zone, always a good sign. However, he’s made less contact with the pitches he’s swung at, as evidenced by an increased swinging strike rate, an increased strikeout rate, and a decreased contact rate, relative to his career norms. Another important factor is that his HR/FB is roughly half his career rate, suggesting likely improvement going forward. Overall, I believe these factors indicate some decline is probable, but improvement is to be expected from his current 2012 pace. For the rest of the season, I’ll project a .320/.480/.800 line.

Derek Jeter is a player only Matthew Berry would call an “upper-level fantasy shortstop” for the rest of 2012. Sure Jeter’s been rocking a 1.000 OPS this season, but I’m astonished that other fantasy baseball ‘perts are buying into him. Apparently ESPN analysts watching the Yankees are like observers at a Man vs. Food event shouting “This is the stuff of legends!” In OPS leagues, it might be tempting to like his fast start, but he’s just not going to continue anything remotely near this pace. In fact, Jeter has arguably been the luckiest player in baseball, with a .400 BABIP and a HR/FB at 30%. It’s also important to note that he hasn’t maintained an OPS over .900 since he partied in 1999, while his OPS has been below .750 the past two seasons. I think he approaches a line of .360/.390/.750 as he did in 2011. However, his upside is limited and there’s the possibility that Jeter leaves his fantasy owners alone in a world that’s so cold.

Seth Smith is used to being neglected. The Lisper’s Nightmare was the backup quarterback to Eli Manning at the University of Mississippi. Last year he was traded to the A’s for Guillermo Moscoso and Josh Outman. He’s currently owned in less than 1% of ESPN leagues. If this doesn’t compel you to pick up Smith out of sympathy, then do it because he’s a sneaky play in OPS leagues. His plate discipline has improved, as illustrated by his increased contact rate and walk rate, along with him swinging at less pitches outside the strike zone. Despite these encouraging signs, he’s posted a .650 OPS. I expect Smith’s BABIP to surge and his overall line to have a corresponding rise, with .340/.460/.800 a distinct possibility for the rest of the season. In leagues with daily changes, it would be worth benching him against lefties because the A’s plan to do so the majority of the time (Smith has a career .590 OPS vs. lefties and .870 OPS vs. righties).

Bryan LaHair continues to set the world on fire. The 29-year-old rookie obliterated Triple A in 2011, with 38 homers in 129 games, also known as taking candy from a baby. In his stint with the Cubs last September he demonstrated that he appears to be capable of playing in the majors, with an .885 OPS across 20 games. This year he switched jerseys with Albert Pujols and is currently carrying an OPS over 1.200. Some, if not all, of his stats are downright ridiculous and he won’t be able to remain the best player in the league. Nevertheless, after heavily regressing his numbers, there appears to be a decent hitter underneath all that luck. I’d expect LaHair to produce a .330/.470/.800 line for the rest of the season, with upside for more if his luck continues. You may be old for a rookie Bryan but tonight, with you on my fantasy team, we are young.

Mike Stanton times 5.  That’s really all I want in my outfield this year.  Is that so wrong of me to ask for?  Sadly I know this is not a reality, not even in a fantasy world so I’ll have to make due with 4 Non Stantons…somehow.  I’m not going to lie and say OF is deep in a league setting like this but OF is also where you see the most turnover and opportunities throughout the season.  Coach wants Yonder Alonso’s bat in the lineup, so he throws him in left field.  The Texas outfield is in the infirmary ward, time to go pick up D. Murphy for a couple of weeks.  Just make sure its the Rangers D. Murphy and not the Mets D. Murphy.

My realistic perfect 5 outfield set would start with taking Mike ‘don’t call me Mike, call me Giancarlo‘ Stanton in the 2nd round because I’ve already got my 1B in the first.  My next OF to grab would be B.J. Upton in the 5th or 6th to give me steals without giving up on having power.  After that we fly on down to the 8th or 9th and snag Jayson Werth and then don’t do anything about our OF again until the 13th round taking Logan Morrison.  Then I hold my nose and slide all the way down to the 17th and pick up Vernon Wells.  I’ll be backfilling my gaps with my previous positional needs that I’ve mentioned while putting together my pitching staff.  I am not going to concern myself with speed a huge amount except in the wee hours of the draft.  I have adhered to and subscribed to SAGNOF since before I knew what it was.  Thanks Grey for putting a hard to pronounce acronym on something I once couldn’t describe.

I’ll Avoid:

Alex Gordon – In looking at Alex Gordon’s line last year, I have a hard time finding a fault with it.  Good Runs, RBIs, average, Steals, and HRs.  But scratch and sniff that surface and I have cause for concern.  He’s not a really good basestealer as he was only 17/25.  For you non-math majors that’s a 68% rate, or as I like to call it, the score you got on your last Geometry exam; It wasn’t good then and it’s not good now.  He hit 3rd and leadoff throughout the year.  The runs don’t drop off at leadoff but the RBIs do.  Everything went just right to get that line last year.  If you get 18 HRs, 13 SBs, 65 RBIs and a .285 average, are you happy you drafted Gordon around the 5th or 6th?  If you answer yes, you’re easily happified and I’m not talking to you anymore.

Ichiro Suzuki - This is not because of last year.  To be fair, I’ve been anti-Ichiro for the last couple of years and have been proven wrong.  It’s hard betting against someone with a .326 career average so cut me some slack.  My main issue with Ichiro is his move in the lineup.  The Mariners want to start the year with Chone Figgins (I always like to replace the ‘n’ in his first name with a ‘d’ while pronouncing the ‘CH’ combination correctly.  It makes me feel better as a Mariners fan; you can use any of the various definitions on Urban Dictionary to find out how I feel about Figgins with that information).  This means they want Ichiro to bat 3rd in the lineup.  Last time I checked, infield singles when someone is already on first usually lead to a GIDP.  Ichiro will be 38 this season, has very little power, a high ground ball percentage and is being switched to an RBI position which will decrease his stolen base opportunities.  Have I negative Nelly’d this enough for you yet? Fine, he’s also a potty mouth.

I’ll Go For:

Ben Revere – So he’s not going to win you any HR contests, but you weren’t really looking for HR contestants in the 235 ADP range were you?  Ben Revere is fast.  So fast you didn’t even notice he is being tabbed as an OF starter for the Twins until you saw this post.  In 117 games last year, he stole 34 bases.  If you do what I tell everyone not to do which is extrapolate that over a season, you are finding 47.07692 steals in the late rounds.  How you get that stuff on the right side of the decimal is beyond me, but math doesn’t lie.  Now you understand why my perfect outfield draft doesn’t include going high on basestealers early in the draft *smugface*.

Nolan Reimold – I had about a bajillion of these late round OF flier thingies I wanted to write up but chose Nolan because I like what they’re doing philosophy-wise in Baltimore; filling their lineup with guys whose motto is ‘hit a HR or strikeout’.  It’s like the Blue Jays philosophy minus pitch recognition.  Nolan won’t win you a batting title but if they give him 500+ ABs, you are probably looking at .250 with 20 to 25 HRs.  Think of him as a just in case for Vernon Wells or Logan Morrison.  I wonder if any parent with a family name of Case has ever named their son Justin before?  I also wonder how therapy went for him.

Situation to Monitor: Washington

There are a lot of things I don’t trust about the Nationals lineup this year (I almost went with a situation call in my 2B or SS section because I see Ian Desmond getting the boot, moving Espinosa to SS and having Lombardozzi gap-fill until they call Rendon up later this summer.  Yep, I just cheated; deal with it.  Now back to our OF blurb).  Its not that I don’t like the players involved, I don’t like what management thinks of them.  Washington has tried like mad to get B.J. Upton to be their centerfielder to no avail and might be giving Roger Bernadina a shot this Spring.  They also sorta gave him a shot last spring by bouncing him up and down and in and out…hrm, that sounded a bit obscene.  The point is, the Nationals don’t seem comfortable with Bernadina in a starting role.  Plus they’ve got this little known kid down on the farm named Bryce Harper whom they’re quite smitten with.  I like Bernadina’s skill set, the Nationals don’t and Harper is going to sell a poopton of tickets when he gets called up.  The only way Morse gets moved is if Adam LaRoche is not healthy so Bryce won’t likely play in LF.  Werth is getting paid too much to be sat so he’s going to stay in the outfield.  That leaves Roger and the people who drafted him getting bounced up and down and in and out and not in a good way.

Some people will tell you Giancarlo Stanton‘s plate discipline has improved while in the majors and that his comps suggest further reduction in K% and growth in BB%.  Most will boast he’s one of a Lilliputian handful of players with a legitimate shot at 40+ HR and that he has room to improve on his power.  Many will point to the improved lineup around him as RBI and R opportunities waiting to sustain your fantasy team like mana (or homers) from heaven.  Some will note his career BABIP is high, but that it’s because he’s got plus speed for a 6-5, 235 pound hunk of beef and can chip in a few SBs.  While I’ve never seen a steak plow through a catcher or slide willingly onto my plate, I can tell you the majority of these people are right about Giancarlo Stanton.

What other people probably will NOT do, is SHOW you what Stanton can do and how freakin’ cool his shizz is. Haha! HA!  Sorry, I lost it for a second.  Below is a diagram of Giancarlo Stanton’s HRs from 2010 and 2011 based on data from hittrackeronline.com and park info from the interwebs. The Marlins Park walls are outlined, along with foul lines, distance tickers, the whole shebang… The light colored dots are dongs from 2010, the fully opaque dots 2011 bombs. The blue dots are away dingers, the red dots home, homers on the range in Sun Life Stadium, and the annoying little piggy on TV went “Wee, whee, whee!” all the way back into your memory. Wait for it…

Ain’t that a pretty cupcake with little, patriotic jimmies on top? As I’ve commented before, the new Marlins Park is roughly comparable to Petco in physical dimension (read: BIG). I’ve not seen official documentation of the wall heights, but from the photos it sure looks like more than 8 feet, unless your tape uses Stanton feet. It appears to be mostly around a dozen human feet, but slopes up from the right side power alley to as high as 20. Where? Right out in the deepest part of center by the wacky, leaping Marlin homer sculpture. While we can’t be sure what effect the wind (or lack thereof) may have when the roof’s open (or closed), we can get a rough idea how he might have fared playing in this new park.

In 2010, there’s one that probably would have been an out to left in the new park. The others look like they should have been smooth sailing.  In 2011, we see one more likely out to left, while the duo to straight away center probably would’ve been doubles. Another pair are pretty close on the lower walls to left and right, but the rest are golden with no Teal Monster staring down left center.

All in all, he might’ve lost as many HRs as Antonio Alfonseca can count on one hand; a few doubled down and a few loud outs. He also pulled less in 2011, so that could be trouble for center field shots. But, and in Miami you’ll see lots of those, you’ll also notice the darker dots trend further out than the lighter ones. If the majority of these people and me are right about Giancarlo, I’m pretty certain we’ll get to see wacky, leaping marlins aplenty in 2012.

The other day we went over the top 20 third basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball for our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  Today, we turn our bejeweled eyeglasses to the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  The top twenty outfielders will need to go to a top 40 then a top 60 then a top 80.  Unfortunately, outfield is pretty shallow.  Guess outfielders come in waves… much like sperm whales.  Oofa!  For five outfielder leagues, this really blows, which is only a positive if you’re a sperm whale.  Zadow!  As always, these top 20 outfielders are broken up into tiers with my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Ryan Braun – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

2. Jose Bautista – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

3. Matt Kemp – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

4. Justin Upton – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

5. Jacoby Ellsbury – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

6. Carlos Gonzalez – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

7. Andrew McCutchen – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Pence.  I call this tier, “These players.  ‘What Grey wants in every league, Alex?’”  The outfield isn’t quite as deep as it should be considering there’s three of these suckers playing at any given moment on all teams and the Reds have four.

8. Mike Stanton – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

9. Jay Bruce – What we got from Bruce last year may not have been totally Boss, but a guy that can give you a 30+ homer and 8+ steal season is valuable nowadays.  If Bruce manages to pull a rabbit out of his hat, he could improve in all five categories and there will be a magician somewhere wondering why Jay Bruce has his rabbit.  2012 Projections:  90/34/100/.270/10

10. Josh Hamilton – I think the market has finally figured out Hamilton.  No longer is everyone expecting a MVP season every time out.  People have realized he’s Mr. Glass.  When healthy, Hamilton hits homers and a solid average, runs and RBIs.  When he’s not healthy, you plug in someone else.  In 12 team mixed leagues, it’s much easier to do that than in deep AL-Only ones so keep that in mind when drafting.  (In AL-Only leagues or any leagues with less waiver wire options, I’d move Hamilton down to the next tier.)  2012 Projections:  75/27/85/.295/7

12. Nelson Cruz – Take the above and just “find” Hamilton and “replace” with Cruz.  I think the market has finally figured out Cruz.  No longer is everyone–Well, you can do it on your own.  2012 Projections:  70/30/85/.260/10

12. Hunter Pence – He’s a square peg in this round tier.  Everyone else in this tier has crazy upside and some potential pitfalls.  Pence is steady as she goes, Raconteurs.  Last year he hit a few less homers, but I could see him actually hitting a few more homers this year because he won’t be playing under the tyranny of the recently-exiled Ed Wade’s Toupee.  (Was actually surprised Astros fans weren’t more excited about the disposal of the Toupee, but, then again, I don’t think there are Astros fans.)  2012 Projections:  95/25/100/.280/10

13. Curtis Granderson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Victorino.  I call this tier, “How is this tier different than all other tiers?  This tier I’m going to pass over.”  Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

14. Matt Holliday – I’m done with Holliday until next year or the year after when he falls into the tier of outfielders with guys like Vernon Wells.  He’s still too coveted for what he used to do rather than what he’s about to do.  Oh, and please don’t ask in the comments if this means I would never draft Holliday.  I would take Pence, Cruz and Bruce before him and I’ve seen Holliday taken before them, so how am I drafting Holliday?  I’m not taking four outfielders in the course of one pick, i.e., I’m not drafting Holliday before others so I’m not getting him.  Sorry to longtime readers who had to read that, but I feel like I always get these questions around the time of rankings.  2012 Projections:  85/24/90/.305/5

15. Lance Berkman -  Went over Berkman’s projections at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.

16. Shane Victorino – We had a good run.  Victorino and I.  It’s come to an end.  Howard’s banged up, Utley’s a nail clipping incident away from the 15-day DL and Rollins has more miles on him than your Chrysler LeBaron.  Victorino’s runs and RBIs will be affected.  His speed is affected by his age, and he’s not a big power threat.  If he falls far enough I could see maybe taking him, but it’s time to bid him aloha.  The goodbye version of aloha, that is.  2012 Projections:  85/15/55/.275/20

17. Michael Morse – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here into the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “I’ll happily reach for one of these guys if I have to, in the non-sexual way.  Though it’s kinda sad this is the third tier of outfielders that I’m excited about.  Times is tough, yo.”  Went over Morse’s projections at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.

18. Desmond Jennings – I already went over my Desmond Jennings 2012 fantasy.  While I wrote it, a leprechaun with a broken GPS looking for a rainbow appeared out my window.  2012 Projections:  80/16/65/.275/35

19. B.J. Upton – Honestly, I might be the only fantasy baseball ‘pert who doesn’t mind Fellatio Upton.  Sure, he hits for a wonky average, but so does your mom.  (Actually, I don’t know how well your mom hits for average.  Though she looks like she can’t leg out many infield hits on those cankles.)  Upton hits for power and steals bases.  I’m willing to go out on a limb that he can luck into a .260 average one of these years with his wheels and still go 20/40.  At 27 years of age, this is the year I’m betting on.  2012 Projections:  80/20/85/.250/40

20. Adam Jones – He has a few strikes against him.  But games haven’t started yet?!  Strikes against him was a figure of speech, Random Italicized Voice.  Jones’s ground ball rate isn’t great, which makes me think we’ll need to be lucky to get over 25 homers and his walk rate is near abysmal.  A guy that can give 25/12/.285 is valuable though in today’s bear market, which only sounds like a grocery store in The Castro.  2012 Projections:  80/25/90/.285/12

Baseball’s hot stove season has been largely dominated by the new-look Marlins. The last time a Miami team made such headlines in free agency, it was the controversial Miami Heat “Dream Team.” Although they did not have their own hour long ESPN special and subsequent public hatred like Lebron and his gang, the new-look Marlins have come to play. Opening a new name, a new stadium and a new brand, the Miami Marlins have been spending money indiscriminately, almost bafflingly. In the blink of an eye, the Marlins organization became populated with a fiery new manager, multiple perennial all-stars, future hall of famers, gold furniture and miniature giraffes. Seemingly not satisfied, the Marlins are rumored to be in pursuit of many of the big names still on the market. In baseball home-grown talent generally trumps big market acquisitions, but if there was a model for free agency winning championships, this certainly is not a bad start. Let’s take a minute and assess the fantasy fallout of this mind-blowing series of moves.

The first domino to fall was the Heath Bell signing, but in retrospect that is little more than a drop in the pond. The big prize was Jose Reyes, whose signing represented a bit of a shocker to the baseball world. Reyes will struggle to play full seasons (he has not exceeded 140 games played in 4 seasons), but his presence at the top of the lineup will be a major upgrade as long as he is on the field. From a fantasy perspective he gets an upgrade as he joins a lineup with more firepower than the Mets could muster. Additionally Ozzie Guillen is likely to be aggressive in his use of his leadoff hitter, meaning a return to 50 SBs is within the realm of possibility. Still, all the press surrounding this signing will likely drive up the price on draft day, and I’m not sure I’d be willing to pay it. I think it will ultimately be a better play to reap the benefits that this upgraded lineup will confer on the rest of the lineup. This becomes all the more poignant if the Marlins make another big offensive signing. Even though they missed the Pujols boat they still reportedly want to bolster the offense. Curiously, they are reportedly out on the Prince Fielder sweepstakes because apparently no matter how many tofu tacos he eats he cannot rally the Hispanic market (funny, I thought homeruns were the universal language). One possible alternative is the Cuban shortstop Cespedes. The easy transition from Cuba to Miami makes it a fit for not only the player but also for the Marlins, who help that aforementioned Hispanic market.

Lost in all of these moves is the fact that the Marlins actually had a decent squad last year. After Trader Jack McKeon took over the team they played reasonably well, and certainly have talented pieces to work around. The primary beneficiary of this managerial change was Hanley Ramirez, who rebounded from a slow start to post respectable numbers until being shut down with an injury. Hanley will likely remain on the team even with the acquisition of Jose Reyes (despite rumors that he may be shopped), and hopefully Ozzie Guillen can motivate the superstar in the same way that Jack did.

Hanley’s situation is very interesting from a fantasy perspective because Reyes’s signing has forced Hanley to make a switch to 3rd base. This means that Hanley will bring his 5 tool talents to a new gig- dual eligibility at two of fantasy’s scarcer positions. Unlike Alex Rodriguez who made the same position shift, Hanley is not a true slugger. His power and speed combo will be truly unique at 3rd this year, but his power stroke will need to return in a big way for him to be considered a legitimate option at third base. Fortunately, his dual eligibility will allow owners who take him early to have great flexibility later on in filling these tough positions.

Another bystander from last year’s team who stands to benefit is young superstar Mike Stanton. Stanton’s power was historic in 2011, and his ability to overcome the adjustments pitchers made against him proved he was no fluke. If fantasy owners had one complaint about his 2011 season, it was likely in the RBI department. He was shuffled up and down the lineup all year, and seemingly hit nothing but solo shots. Regardless of whether the Marlins’ signings prove to be good or bad, the short term lineup looks to get a major boost, and Stanton’s RBI numbers should improve dramatically. There were numerous other Marlins position players who were mixed league relevant who can expect a similar boost as well (I’m looking at you, Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez). Buy buy buy.

In stark contrast to the new-look offense, the Marlins’ rotation looked to be more of the same with Ricky Nolasco and Josh Johnson as the headliners (provided the latter’s injury rehab goes smoothly). After that a slovenly band of journeymen and veterans consisting of Anibal Sanchez, Chris Volstad and newly-acquired Wade Leblanc rounded things out. The Marlins, correctly realizing that this rotation was a recipe for disaster, made a game-changing signing — Mark Buehrle. Buehrle has been consistently solid for a long while in the tougher American League, and should benefit from a move to the senior circuit. He should be a formidable piece of the Marlins rotation and a coveted mid-tier fantasy starter on draft day.

Another area that the Marlins did manage to upgrade was their bullpen via their somewhat surprising acquisition of Heath Bell. Bell’s peripherals are not nearly what they once were, but he should be a clear upgrade over the “Artist formerly known as Leo Nunez” Juan Oviedo. Oviedo himself becomes a dicey fantasy play unless he is non-tendered and latches on elsewhere as a closer. However it seems fairly likely that the Marlins will keep him around for depth purposes. I’d shop him in keeper leagues before the dust settles.

Whether the Marlins have built a championship contender is still a matter of debate. They have certainly generated a buzz in the baseball world that will hopefully translate to attendance at their new ballpark. Regardless of the outcome, there will be many fantasy options coming out of this lineup this year, but don’t draft on hype alone. The value is there only if you know where to look.