Fantasy Baseball Advice

I’m not looking at his wins and losses. I’m not even looking at Matt Cain half the time. Just the numbers, ma’am. His BABIP shows he’s been unlucky this season. His Ks say he can still hang with the big boys. I don’t like walks. After last night, he has a 29/23 K/BB ratio. That’s atrocious. Last night, I actually watched Cain. He’s got filthy stuff, but the numbers don’t lie. He’s not just missing; he’s missing. Last night, he walked Hawpe and Tulo then got Baker to line out. Actually he got lucky to get a line out. Then you throw in a Taveras bunt out to kill another rally and good relief from Vinnie Chulk to save Cain in the sixth inning and what I saw was a pitcher who gave up four runs in five innings in most games. I’d see what kind of offers I could get if I dangled Cain. Anyway, here’s what else I saw:

Eugenio Velez - Heffin hey, he’s fast. If you need steals, here you go. Still not sure if he can get on base with any regularity.

Mike Napoli - Now at six home runs. Does it really matter if he’s not playing every day? That was rhetorical.

Dan Haren - I didn’t end up with him on any team, but I loved him coming into the season. As I said in the beginning of the season, any concern about his 2nd half stats should be assuaged (Word of The Day) by the move to the NL.

Jon Garland - I’d say he could be a giant bust this year, but I think you need to have positive expectations for that to happen. No one really bought into Garland, did they? Except for The Orange County Angels, of course.

Frank Thomas - He got a triple? I was watching Thing 2 get the boot from Flavor of Love and missed it, but… wow. Did anyone see this? Did Vlad’s leg finally fall off when he was going after the ball? Did the Angels pull their outfield for Frank’s at-bat? I’ve seen The Big Limp barely make it to first legging out a walk; I can’t believe he got a triple. I’d like to see some video evidence of this. BTW, Thomas has value if you need some pop in your utility.

Carlos Quentin - Now with six home runs. If you still have Sheffield on your team while Quentin languishes on waivers, I’m blocking your IP. Expose yourself!

Franklin Gutierrez - Not an exciting 2-for-4, but The Big FraGu still got it. You should take gambles on fifth outfielders. He’s one I’d consider.

Mike Mussina - If he’s on your team, you’re just not trying hard enough. Laffey looked better taking the loss and that’s not praise for either pitcher.

Albert Pujols - He’s batting .382 with five home runs and 20 RBIs. Cust kayin’.

Edwin Encarnacion - Hit in 17 of the last 18 games. I think he might finally be up to 51% owned in ESPN leagues.

Brandon Wood - He was recalled by the Angels and then made to watch from the bench. I don’t understand either.

Daniel Cabrera - Member that corner he turned last week? Yeah, he just turned another corner back to crap.

Hank Blalock - He was placed on the DL? How could it be? That makes no sense. I thought he was already on the DL. Okay, you want to carpool to work because it will save you two hours a day because you’ll be able to drive in the HOV lane. But Hank Blalock and Nomar are the carpool captains for your neighborhood and will be driving you every third week. Do you drive with them or sit in traffic an extra two hours every day? Trick question.  You sell your house and move.

Let’s pretend Francisco Liriano is that girl you hooked up with at the bar. You think she’s hot, but, honestly, you can’t really remember the color of her hair, let alone her carpet. Though you do remember the sex being good. Now she calls to tell you she’s available Sunday night and your friend, Kevin Slowey, just cancelled on you. Oh, and there’s one condition, since the last time you saw her, she had reconstructive surgery. She swears she’ll be back in form by Sunday. You agree to meet her and begin to talk about that night you met. She confides that she has no idea what you look like either. Now you can meet her because the sex was good one random night before her reconstructive surgery or, because she has no idea what you look like either, you can call your friend and trade him this girl for John Maine. I trade Liriano for John Maine before Sunday night. You’re in a one year league and you’re playing for the here and now. You don’t have time for Liriano to ‘get back to form.’ Sell high and trade Liriano. With that said, here’s some other players you should buy or sell.

SELL

Andruw Jones, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre, Matt Kemp - If you can trade any of these guys, I think you’ll be a happier person. The Pierre Situation™ has screwed up everything. Maybe Pierre gets traded, but at this point you’re not in a good position to succeed with any of these guys.

Felix Pie - Reed Johnson has sliced into the playing time of Pie. Oofa! Grab a spot on the bench next to Matt Murton, Felix. Trade Pie to someone who thinks Pie will definitely win the position and succeed.

Luke Scott - He’s batting near .500. If anyone believes it, I’d trade him. Otherwise, hold onto him for the time being.

Blake DeWitt - If you don’t think Torre’s going to play Nomar, take one look at The Pierre Situation™.

Mark Reynolds - He’s not awful, but he’s not going to be as good as he has been for the last week. Not to mention, he will strikeout 200 times this year.

BUY

Brett Myers - In two starts, he’s been battered like he likes to do to his wife. He’ll be better.

Micah Owings - Almost 9 K/9. Under 3 BB/9.

Edwin Jackson - He got a Murtonesque mishandling by the Dodgers. Underutilized or not utilized at all. Back in the day, he was a great prospect for the Dodgers.  He’s still only 24, but he is on the Rays.

Justin Upton - I don’t think you can get him from anyone in an NL-only league or a keeper, but one year league owners may not be sold. He’s a talent.

Chad Billingsley - Velocity’s down but he was pitched out of the bullpen then made to start. I think it’s just a rough beginning.

Mike Napoli - His average is going to be in the dumpster, but he’s showing power.

Jeff Suppan - Not masterful, but he can help out with wins and innings.

Shawn Hill - In 97 innings last year, he had 65 Ks and a 3.42/1.14. If he’s on waivers, grab him. He’s about to come back from his injury.

Scott Hairston - He got a Murtonesque mishandling in Arizona. He now has his chance to play.

Miguel Cabrera - None of his owners are actually worried about him, are they?

There’s been a Lima Plan (Low Investment Mound Aces) invented by the great Ron Shandler, the Zima Plan invented by the presumably tipsy Matthew Berry, the Punt One Category probably invented by someone who realized they forgot to draft steals, the Balanced Team Theory, the Punt Two Categories (probably a leaguemate to the Punt One Category guy who just couldn’t stand being upstaged), the Forget When Your Draft is and Let it Autodraft Strategy, etc.  Yesterday, our very own Rudy Gamble went over his reasoning behind why you should draft a starting pitcher in the first three rounds. Today, we’ll stop the madness and just give you proper drafting strategy. It’s called Performance Enhancing Drafting Strategy or PEDS, for short.

PEDS has five basic steps.  If you follow these steps, you will place near the top in all of your leagues. No plan is foolproof because, unfortunately, they still have to play the games. Injuries happen. Carlos Penas happen. Ryan Brauns happen. But PEDS puts you in the best position possible to win coming out of your draft. Okay, onto the steps:

1. Never draft a pitcher with your first two picks. I know; Rudy Gamble just gave you legitimate reasons why you should draft a pitcher early. Yeah, and Gamble ended up with Teixeira as his second round pick in the fantasy baseball writers’ league when he still could have done his facocta “Draft a Pitcher in the first three rounds” strategy and got Peavy. He only drafted Santana because he was determined to get Santana or Peavy, so with the fifth pick he had to take Santana. (BTW, he traded his second overall pick to get the fifth pick because he wanted to take Santana and he didn’t want to commit a 2nd overall pick to Johan. I would’ve liked to see what would have happened if the fourth overall pick off the board was Santana, then Gamble probably would’ve taken Peavy with the fifth.) Anyway, you don’t want to put yourself in such a hole on offense by taking a pitcher first. There’s plenty of pitchers out there you can get later on. You don’t have to turn your Ks to eleven, a seven will do, Pooh.

2. If you don’t get Reyes, don’t worry about steals until late in the draft or after the draft. In other words, if you fail to snag Reyes (who I suggest you take 2nd if he’s there and so are you), steals will be there later. Don’t draft anyone because you’re looking for steals. No Hanley Ramirez, no Carl Crawford, definitely no Eric Byrnes, no Brian Roberts, no Ichiro, no Figgins, please God no Juan Pierre. Cause if you think you’re drafting these guys to get a balanced team, you’re doing the opposite. Drafting one of these schmohawks makes your team unbalanced. After the draft, steals are available whenever you want them. If not on the waiver wire, then through a trade, because you know who loses the most value as soon as the draft is over? Anyone who gives you steals. (To refurbish a Rudy Gamble analogy) Speed guys are like new cars, once they start running, their value diminishes. After the draft, count the days until the guy with Juan Pierre wants to trade him. (BTW, Prepare yourself to go into the All-Star Break needing steals, because if you drafted all of your other positions properly, chances are you can trade some homers for some steals in July. Because, as we know, the guy with 25 homers at the All-Star Break is less likely to get 25 more homers after the break, while someone like Michael Bourn could get you 15 steals in a month.)

3. Never take a closer in the first tier. You should pay for some saves. Just don’t overpay. You need at least two closers, otherwise you’re scrambling the whole season. Grab one of the Cordero brothers or Valverde. Don’t draft Nathan. Not K-Rod. Putz is a no go.

4. Have your offense squared away before the final three rounds and never take an offensive bench player. You’re much better off with a middle reliever or potential closer than Xavier Nady on your bench. Rafael Betancourt or Luis Castillo? Mike Napoli or Tony Pena? Crap or value? See what I’m saying? Good.

5. Draft your second, third and fourth starters only from NL teams. Self-explanatory. No DH, pitchers hitting, much weaker offenses. They bunt in the NL! Here’s a quick scenario, it’s your turn to draft and you’re trying to choose between A.J. Burnett and Brett Myers, who do you choose? Ian Snell or Chien-ming Wang? Do you see how easy this is?

If you follow these five simple steps, I guarantee you will be in the top three in your league battling for your championship. PEDS is so easy and good; it should be illegal. You’re welcome.