Fantasy Baseball Advice

June 1st is just around the corner. There are many prospects that are just waiting for that deadline for their major league call-up. From Ackley to Moustakas to Rizzo to Belt and Jennings, the fantasy world will clamor at their availability and set grandiose expectations for performance. Remember, ma’ always said rookie-nookie should be ingested in small doses to prevent statistical indigestion. If excitement last more than four hours, offer your fellow league mate a turn, just don’t let your eyes meet.

Eric Thames | TOR | OF: Was called up as of 5/16/11. See Friday’s Buy/Sell post, or read past the link for where I quote Grey, “If I were in an AL-Only league, I’d grab Thames for a little HBI (Hot Bat Injection), but he’ll probably strike out a ton and I’d hold for now in mixed leagues.” I’d concur, especially since his M.O. is power and strikeouts.

Jay Buente | FLA | RHP (AAA): Will start today, Sunday, filling in for the injured Josh Johnson. Has a career 9.4 K/9 with a 3.6 BB/9. At 27 years old, his prospect status isn’t very high, if at all. Throws a low to mid 90s fastball and split-finger that induces a fair amount of groundballs. With a 44:10 K:BB ratio at Triple-A this year, he could be quiet source of strikeouts.

Jordan Lyles | HOU | RHP (AAA): Doesn’t have the ceiling of Julio Teheran, or the sexy appeal of Micheal Pineda. However, Lyles’ ability to control his 88-93 mph fastball, low 80s slider and a strong cutter project him as a number three starter. His strikeout rate has dropped progressively at each level of the minors. Will be more valuable in real baseball than in fantasy-world.

Dustin Ackley | SEA | 2B (AAA): Report on May 17 is that Seattle’s brass want him to improve his defense before considering calling him up. GM Jack Zduriencik followed that comment up with an equally vague statement that he wants Ackley up “sooner rather than later.” So June? Has 12/12 potential over the remainder of the year; at second base, you can do much worse.

Brett Lawrie | TOR | 3B (AAA): Continuing on the quoting trend, Yahoo’s Blue Jay report stated, “Asked about possibilities [of] the regular third baseman, manager John Farrell said, ‘We’ve got three options there. (INF Jayson Nix, INF John McDonald and 3B/1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion.) And when Brett Lawrie comes up, there’s another one.’” Here’s hoping that everyone knows Lawrie-salt makes everything better, including fantasy line-ups.

Brandon Belt | SF | 1B/OF (AAA): Since returning to Triple-A, Belt has .373/.509/.602 in 83 at-bats with a 24:26 K:BB ratio and 11 XBH (4 Hr). His scouting report states he makes consistent contact and has good strike zone judgment with ability to make quick adjustments. Appears he just needs some more time to adjust to major league pitching and could provide a .300 average and 20 to 25 home runs.

Anthony Rizzo | SD | 1B (AAA): Continues to hit well (.325/.391/.650 in last 10 days), and looks poised for a June first call up.

Desmond Jennings | TB | CF (AAA): Starting to show power and the strikeout rates that come with it (31 in 152 at-bats). Nothing to be too worried about for the time being. With Sam Fuld continuing to regress and disappoint, look for Jennings to finally get an opportunity soon. Think .275 with 12 to 15 home runs and 15 to 20 steals for the whole year.

Zach McAllister | CLE | RHP (AAA): Josh Todd got the call-up to replace the injured Alex White, but Tood is a reliever. McAllister has been brilliant this year at Triple-A with a 7.3 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 52 innings and a 1.02 WHIP.  That said, his stuff is mediocre and is an end-of-the-rotation starter.

Mike Moustakas | KC | 3B (AAA): Starting to heat up at just the right time. In the last 10 games, he has slashed .333/.413/.718 (39 AB). During this time he has 9 XBH (3 Hr) and is making better contact (5:5 K:B). Be forewarned, his tendency to swing often and frequently making contact should be noted. His swing is solid and is learning to lay-off the breaking pitches. Should be owned when called up.

Mike Montgomery | KC | LHP (AAA): Slowly improving upon a disappointment start of the year. It seems that every step forward is met with another step backwards. Last Saturday, he was rocked 8 ER in 4.1 IP and a 4:3 K:BB. On the 19th, he dazzled with 7 strikeouts and 9 baserunners in 7 innings. Pitches better at home than road, which makes sense as Omaha is a slight-pitchers park. I don’t expect to see him up until mid-to-late summer.

James Darnell | SD | 3B (AA): Continues to lace the ball at Double-A in San Antonio, which is historically a strong-pitchers park. Bolstered by a solid 19:29 K:BB ratio and a .299 ISO, Darnell is pushing hard for the case to be promoted to at least Triple-A. With a career .206 ISO, strong plate discipline and good contact skills, Darnell could be a solid play in deeper mixed leagues by the end of the year, and in the near future.

Paul Goldschmidt | ARI | 1B (AA): Paul Bunyan’s nephew go yard yet again. 15 home runs on the year. Please Arizona, dump Miranda and Branyan so Brandon Allen and Goldschmidt finally get an opportunity.  (Rudy:  Your Branyan wish came true but Miranda and Xavier Nady are still around….)

Exciting news on prospect fronts with the promotions of Julio Teheran and Eric Hosmer. There was also scary news for all Orioles fans as Manny Machado left a game on Thursday with a knee injury. He was later diagnosed with a dislocated knee cap. This puts a damper in his early season success at Single-A and will be placed on the seven-day DL with the expectation that he’ll be off next week.  Other minor league news and highlights:

Clay Mortensen | COL | RHP (SP): Technically not a rookie, but was called up on Saturday to replace Esmil Rogers for today’s start. Personally would avoid even in NL-Only leagues.

Paul Goldschmidt | ARI | 1B: The Gold-rush continues as Paul has continued his country-strong campaign. He’s slashing .337/.487/.730 at Double-A with 10 home runs and a 17:27 K:BB ratio. With Brandon Allen still a road block, his promotion to Triple-A will be delayed.

Brandon Belt | SF | 1B/OF: Although it’s a small sample size, his .429/.537/.690 slash-line in 54 AB with 7 XBH (2 Hr) and 14:11 K:BB, ratio brings the excitement back. He’s striking out as much as he was in the majors too. It will only be time before he’s back.

Brett Lawrie | TOR | 3B: Early this week, the Blue Jays brass stated that they have been pleased with Lawrie’s early season. Even his shoddy defense – which has improved since the beginning. I’m starting to believe that come June first, the Jays will promote their top prospect.

James Darnell | SD | 3B: Reviewing his early season numbers (15 XBH (4 Hr) and a 14:23 K:BB ratio in 96 AB (.365/.483/.604) at Double-A) and career numbers (.305/.407/.501 in 1018 AB), I am led to believe that Darnell is another Kevin Kouzmanoff. For fantasy purposes, that’s far from a compliment.

Dee Gordon | LAD | SS: What do you call a strikeout slap hitter? Carlos Gomez? Sure, and they have a lot in common – good defense and strikeouts without good on-base skills. I still really like Gordon. His .303/.355/.364 slash line in 99 AB with 5 XBH (0 Hr) and 12 steals in 14 attempts are enticing. His defense is solid to hold a job, but his 20:7 K:BB ratio at Triple-A and inability to have value without the steals begs the question – Carlos Gomez at SS?

Mike Montgomery | KC | LHP (SP): The Royals are loaded, their fan base skeptical and fantasy players hoping catch the next big prospect. Montgomery has been underwhelming compared to early season expectations. Sans his first start in which he gave up 5 runs, he has pitched better but still struggles with control (24:19 K:BB in33 IP). Even with a positive GO/AO ratio (1.63 GO/AO) he needs to refine his command and control at Triple-A.

Danny Duffy | KC | LHP (SP): As for next Royal pitching prospect to target, Duffy has to be on your radar. With a 33:6 K:BB in 26 innings, he has been their best pitching prospect to date. He’s a flyball pitcher (.63 GO/AO ratio) and will struggle with home runs in the majors. However, his control and strikeout potential could land him as the AL’s Brandon Beachy.

Anthony Rizzo | SD | 1B: Here’s a follow up with a quieter name with as much upside as Hosmer and Belt for this year. At Triple-A, he has hit .308/.364/.615 in the last 10 games (39 AB) with 7 XBH (2 Hr). Overall, he’s slashing .393/.448/.741 with 20 XBH (9 Hr) in 112 AB and a 23:11 K:BB ratio.

Eric Surkamp | SF | LHP (SP): Hard to ignore 41 strikeouts (12 BB) in 26 innings, even if they are at Double-A and from a deceptive delivery. His MLB ETA was delayed due to a hip injury in 2010. If not for that injury he would be at Triple-A, knocking on the door for a MLB rotation spot

Matt Moore | TB | LHP (SP): See 1/8 inch above, remove the injury history and add that Moore is a dominate pitcher with a high ceiling. Currently at Double-A he has a 41:6 K:BB in 29 1/3 innings. Simply, a top two pitching prospect (Teheran is first).

Jean Segura | LAA | SS: Come September, Segura and Trout will be talked about like Moustakas and Hosmer. Just look (at High-A): 9 XBH (2 Hr), 13 steals in 17 attempts, 15:8 K:BB ratio and a .312/.361/.459 slash line in 109 AB. Plus good defense.

Shelby Miller | St.L | RHP (SP): The Cardinals top pitching prospect looks to be growing out of High-A soon. His 42:13 K:BB in 28 innings are exciting. Double-A should be in his near future (late May). A September call up is possible.

In an alternate universe, one in which the Cuban Missile Crisis was more than a crisis, the local family big-box appliance store would be Montgomery Castro. Launching the next holiday sale, Montgomery Castro introduces the exceeding expectations oven, the humidor microwave and the “Honey, I can’t find my [ground] balls,” fake grass-carpeting for the “dry” seasons down south. Mike Montgomery (KC) and Simon Castro (SD) should reinvest in their store. They have both struggled with control and Castro with the long balls. Seems about right, their missiles were always oh!-so close. These two pitchers have combined for a 29:22 K:BB ratio in 36 innings and 21 Earned runs on 35 hits. Equally as upsetting is our neighborhood family law firm Parker and Archer who have represented Montgomery Castro, but have lost several early suits this year. Everything from no command on the stand, to serving up easily dismissed arguments and even rolling over after finishing their points early. Jarrod Parker (ARI) and Chris Archer (TB) have struggles much like the local Montgomery Castro. Parker and Archer have combined for a 22:16 K:BB ratio in 24 2/3 innings (six starts) and 24 earned runs on 37 hits. I would submit to you that Archer feels cheated by Parker and the firm may be splitting-up leaving their fancy Madison Avenue office for a cheap hotel.

Charlie Furbush | DET | LHP (SP): Charlie’s 89 to 91 mph fastball is striking people out again in the early 2011 season after fading hard in 2010. He has a 21:4 K:BB ratio in 16 2/3 innings. Maybe, in spirit of the holiday season, he ran up the mountain, saw the commandments and spoke to [His] flaming bushes along the way giving him a greater understanding. Or maybe he’s not at the end of a season in which he had reached his career high in innings. I’d like to believe the former. He’s a marginal play when, or if, called upon.

Rudy Owens | PIT | RHP (SP): He’s been a solid performing prospect on a terrible team, as opposed to a terrible performing prospect on a high profile team – cough, Fernando Martinez, cough. His 87 to 93 mph fastball and average off-speed pitches are controlled with pinpoint command. In the early going, he has had three solid outings to start the season, a 15:4 K:BB ratio in 18 1/3 innings. He’s not a dominate arm, but solid middle-rotation pitcher. A mini-Lily, definitely Owen-able when called upon in deeper leagues.

Anthony Rizzo | SD | 1B: Currently has 11 XBH (5 Hr) a 9:5 K:BB ratio in 59 at-bats at Triple-A. Rizzo is living up to the hype so far. With the Padres first base shituation, it’s only until June that everyone see him in the majors. Even with an unsustainable slash line of .458/.500/.814, he still has moderate power and good contact skills but more in the range of a .275/.350/.475 hitter. The leader of hits at Triple-A as of 4/22/11 will have large shoes to fill when the time comes.

Eric Thames | TOR | LF: This is exciting. I wrote about him in this off-season’s Blue Jays Minor League Review found here, and he continues to impress. He has 13 XBH (2 Hr) with a 13:10 K:BB ratio in 60 Triple-A at-bats. Too bad he doesn’t strikeout more, he’d might get a chance for the Blue Kays.

Brett Lawrie | TOR | 2B/3B: Mentioned last week too, Lawrie has three home runs in the last two days (as of 4/22/11). Continues to hit and strikeout (15 strikeouts in 61 at-bats). Still a favorite of mine.

Alex Torres | TB | LHP (SP): Hard to ignore a 27:6 K:BB in 15 1/3 innings. Although a small sample size, he hasn’t last more than 5 1/3 innings, he stills provide two minutes of heaven. See 1/8 inch below to see why he’d get looked over, most likely to save arbitration.

Alex Cobb | TB | RHP (SP): Success with a low 90s fastball that has good sinking action and average breaking pitches. They have helped him to a tune of 25:5 K:BB ratio in three early season starts (16 IP). He’s a back end rotation pitcher or a solid bullpen arm. Definitely has more value as a number three, four or five starter. With Niemann struggling in the early going, I believe Cobb would get a chance over Torres in the early going.

Jaff Decker | SD | LF: After upper-decking last year’s early season, this year he’s hot with 13 XBH (4 Hr, 2 3B and 7 2B), with a 12:11 K:BB ratio and slashing .408/.532/.878 at Double-A. Have to like offensive potential in a farm system that sees their majors as a second Triple-A squad, even if they play at Petco.

Eric Hosmer | KC | 1B: Hosmer is trouncing Triple-A right now with 5 XBH (1 Hr) .373/.464/.492 and a 9:10 K:BB ratio. Dayton Moore will still probably not call him up until September as he promised in the offseason. Too bad, his teammate Moustakas is struggling mightily (.241/.313/.362 in 58 AB) and need to bust out of his slump. He has improved slightly in the last week (.257/.350/.371 in 35 AB) but still isn’t exciting anyone. Maybe he’ll pull a Jesus and rise again in the second half. That’s Montero you fools. I wouldn’t desecrate a deity on His special day.

Julio Teheran | ATL | RHP (SP): Not blazing past hitters this year at Triple-A. He has a 11:6 K:BB in 16 innings (3 starts). I wouldn’t expect him in the majors until mid-summer at the earliest. No reason to rush this young pup with Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy.

Jacob Turner | DET | RHP (SP): Looks like a mini-Vernlander. Seriously. Same height, stellar strikeouts and control and only 3-to-4 mph less on his fastball. Might explain the 20:3 K:BB ratio in 19 2/3 innings at Double-A this year. While Andy Oliver will get the attention in the early going, if Turner continues to pitch this well, he’ll be in the majors in no time.

Mike Montgomery | LHP-SP | Kansas City Royals | DOB: 7-1-89 | 6’5” | 180 lbs | B/T: L/L | 2008 1st rd pk #36 | KC #1 ranked prospect according to Baseball America (2010) | MiLB Player Page

In the Kansas City Royals 2009 Minor League Review that I wrote this past off-season, here is what I mentioned about Montgomery:

His curveball is considered his best pitch, his 89 to 93 mph fastball has more potential to develop velocity and movement, also throws an average changeup and the rare palmball. He is on the fast track, [he might receive a] September call-up if his 2010 season goes well. He’ll probably be getting a Scouting the Unknown article sometime in the upcoming summer.

As a Twins fan, he’s is the one player I would worry about in the Royals farm system with Mauer, Morneau, Span, and Kubel all being left handed hitters, especially Kubel who can’t touch lefties.

Looks like I can predict the future too. Baseball America said his changeup was his best pitch, John Sickels said his curveball was, Keith Law says his changeup is his best pitch – I’ll go with the majority and say his change-up is his best. Either way, his fastball sits between 90 to 93 MPH and touches 94-95 with the potential to gain more velocity as his frame fills out. His traditional curveball is getting better and the Royals are trying to phase out the palmball. Mechanically speaking, his delivery is sound and repeatable. Possesses great mound presence and is a fierce competitor (just ask his high school basketball team – he was kicked off for receiving too many technical fouls). He still needs to improve his off-speed pitches, but has been praised for his work ethic, his command, and has been compared to Andy Pettitte for his upside. How has his 2010 season fared so far? (Stats include High-A, Double-A and his four innings in the Arizona Rookie League.)

2010 Stats: 9.6 K/9 | 2.2 BB/9 | 58 1/3 IP | 1.85 ERA | 2.60 FIP | .93 WHIP | .2 Hr/9 | 6.2 H/9 | .264 BABIP | 48.7 GB% | 13.2 LD% | 30.9 FB% | 9 IF/F% | 2.1 Hr/FB% | 1.26 GO/AO

Career Stats: 8.3 K/9 | 2.6 BB/9 | 211 IP | 2.00 ERA | 3.01 FIP | 1.01 WHIP | .2 Hr/9 | .261 BABIP | 51.2 GB% | 12 LD% | 29.8 FB% | 10.1 IF/F% | 2.2 Hr/FB%

Has a great career groundball percentage (51.2 GB%), the walk ratio is falling since Class Low-A in 2009, keeps the ball in the park (.2 Hr/9 for career). Career ERA-FIP difference is largely due to his abnormally low BABIP (.261 for career and .264 in 2010), which is a concern because his ratios probably will drop a little higher in the minors, subsequently his ratios won’t look as good. It’s especially important to note that Montgomery is currently rehabbing in the Rookie Arizona League. What’s he rehabbing? A sore elbow. He’s been on the DL twice for the same injury this year. Cust kayin’. When healthy, he’s going to be mid-rotation pitcher with number two potential.

Dustin Ackley | 2B | Seattle Mariners | DOB: 2-26-88 | 6’1” | 185 lbs | B/T: L/R | 2009 1st rd pk #2 | SEA #1 ranked prospect according to Baseball America (2010) | MiLB Player Page

Dustin Ackley. Every scouts’ and fans’ dream, has some pedigree (father reached Triple-A for the Boston Red Sox), was his college’s superstar, and was drafted to be the next star in Seattle. Possesses a “pure left-handed swing, an amazing feel for hitting, good bat speed and control; Keith Law calls his swings, “one of the best in pro ball.” (Yes, just like he said about Lonnie Chisenhall). His swing is short, with some power, average power (more line drive and gap-to-gap power) not the 22 home run power he displayed in college. He also has great hand-eye coordination, and great pitch recognition. His speed ranks a 70 on the 80 scale with his wheels being called Plus-Plus (the highest it can be). He had Tommy John surgery in college and hasn’t fully recovered yet, thus, still playing second base (not first or center field like the reports were this past winter). Notice how his defense was essentially ignored? Yeah, everyone mentioned that it doesn’t matter where he plays, he’ll hit. Seems like a lame way to say they aren’t sure where he’ll play. How has his season progressed? (stats from Double-A and Triple-A.)

2010 Stats: .266/.383/.391 | 327 AB | 31 XBH | 3 Hr | .125 ISO | 8/2 SB/CS | 45:58 K:BB | .301 BABIP | 55.2 GB% | 12.5 LD% | 32.4 FB% | 15.9 IF/F%

His overall line is skewed by a .167 average in April. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is stellar, his power is in his 24 doubles, and his speed isn’t translating to the basepaths like one would hope (only eight steals while being on-base at a .383 clip). However, some of the scouting reports mentioned only 20 to 25 steals a year with moderate power (10 to 15 home runs). There are an awful lot of groundballs being hit (55.2 GB%) with few screaming liners (12.5 LD%) and a few too many infield-flies (15.9 IF/F%). He has 14 errors at second base this year, but only one in ten games at Triple-A (promoted on 7-14-2010). He’s still really young (just 22), and it’s his first season of pro ball. Gotta give him a little longer leash, especially with his pedigree (number two pick and family), but hold high expectations in check. Baseball America says there are, “no natural comparisons,” but a Dustin Pedroia comparison, sans defense, seems close for his upside with middle ground potential being Placido Polanco. Beyond that, you won’t care. As long as he stays at second base, he’ll have much more value in fantasy baseball. I think the Polanco comparison is more reasonable in this stage of his career. Possible fantasy line: 10 home runs, 20 steals with a .300 average for his typical season. His ETA: 2011; probably more a June call-up rather than a Jason Heyward start.

Kansas City Royals 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm rankings via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (11) | 2008 (24) | 2007 (11) | 2006 (23) | 2005 (28) | 2004 (19)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [65 – 97] AL Central
AAA: [64 – 80] Pacific Coast League
AA: [73 – 67] Texas League
A+: [84 – 55] Carolina League
A: [64 – 75] Midwest League
R: [43 – 31] Pioneer League
R: [20 – 35] Arizona Rookie League
R: [24 – 44] Appalachian League

The Run Down
Dayton Moore gets ripped more than the current administration does for health care. The Yuniesky Betancourt trade, the Mike Jacobs trade and several signings are worthy of scorn. Well, here is some news for people, amidst all these major league signings and trades, Moore has corralled a tremendous amount of “high upside” prospects. Truly. Some experts have the 2010 Royals farm system ranked ninth overall (Keith Law) and Baseball America has yet to weigh in for the 2010 season (their book comes out in late February). Much of this talent though is at the lower levels and still needs to be developed. There are several prospects that I am not mentioning because they either just finished the 2009 season at rookie ball (John Lamb, Tyler Sample, and Tim Melville) or that they didn’t get a chance to play due to when they signed (Aaron Crow (yes, the 2008 #1 draft pick of Washington whom they failed to sign) and Noel Arguelles, a left-handed Cuban defect who has great upside as a pitcher). 2010 will be a make or break year for a couple of top prospects (Moustakas and Hosmer), more the latter than the former. Finally, Kansas City has some reason to be excited.

Graduating Prospects
#23 – (OF) Mitch Maier

Arizona Fall League Players – Surprise Rafters
Pitchers – (RHP) Aaron Hartsock, (LHP) Brandon Sisk, (LHP) Ben Swaggerty, #10 (RHP) Blake Wood
Hitters – (2B/SS) Jeff Bianchi, #1 (3B) Moustakas, #15 (CF) David Lough

Players of Interest for 2010
Hitters
#9 Kila Ka’aihue | 1B | AAA | 25 | .252/.392/.433 | 441 AB | 45 XBH | 17 HR | .181 ISO | 85:102 K:BB | .277 BABIP | 39.6 GB% | 18.7 LD% | 41.5 FB%
Kila Ka’aihue jacked the ball everywhere in 2008 with 27 homers at Double-A and 11 homers at Triple-A. 2009 wasn’t quite as friendly (17 homers), nor was his production anywhere near his 2008 “breakout season.” There has been speculation around his frustration with management’s decision to trade for Mike Jacobs and not let him tryout in Spring Training. A change of scenery may actually be a good thing for his future. Here is his Scouting the Unknown article I wrote about him last July. This link also has a pronunciation key. For those of you too lazy to click the link: pronounced – KEY-luh Kuh-eye-HOO-a.  Grey went over Ka’aihue’s fantasy prospects in the 2009 preseason.

Hindered by a lower than normal BABIP (.277), Ka’aihue slumped through the second half of the season. His batting eye is beyond stellar (two straight years with more than 100 walks) and considering that minor league players usually play a month less than their major league counterparts, having 100 walks is pretty darn impressive. Additionally, in 555 Triple-A at-bats (across two years), he’s hit for a .211 ISO. The power is legit. If given the chance at full playing time, the Royals could have a 25 homer, .400 OBP first baseman/DH. Instead, Mr. Moobs will play first, with Mr. Slacker (Jose Guillen) DH’ing. Don’t be surprised to see Ka’aihue traded sooner rather than later. If Jose Guillen decides to get hurt, Ka’aihue should be the first man called up.

#15 David Lough | CF | A+/AA | 23 | .325/.370/.496 | 458 AB | 46 XBH | 14 HR | .171 ISO | 64:24 K:BB | 19/9 SB/CS | .367 BABIP | 48.8 GB% | 16.8 LD% | 34..3 FB%
This is a fringe prospect with the possibility of slightly overachieving. Not amazing at any one skill, Lough plays solid defense with a marginal arm, above average base running and stealing skills that are consistently improving. He doesn’t have a great feel of the strike zone and consequently is dependent upon a high average of any sort of success. With such a high BABIP (.367), this could hamper any sort of development at the higher levels. Since he wasn’t solely a baseball player at college, his age isn’t the normal indicator of minor league level in regards to his actual ability. 2010 will be the true test. His upside is 15 to 18 homers with 15 to 20 steals. A mid-summer call-up in 2011 is likely his ETA.

Pitchers
#8 Carlos Rosa | RHP | AAA | 24 | 10.1 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 71 IP | 4.56 ERA | 3.80 FIP | 1.42 WHIP | .8 HR/9 | 8.7 H/9 | .356 BABIP | 49.2 GB% | 15.6 LD% | 30.2 FB%
With career rates of 50.4 GB% | 15.1 LD% | 31.8 FB% | 7.1 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9, Rosa looks poised to be a member of the bullpen in the upcoming season. (He threw 10 1/3 MLB innings in September 2009.) With a fastball that is clocked between 90 and 96 mph, a slightly above-average slider and a good changeup, Rosa could become a solid setup man for Soria or even eventually become the closer (in a couple of years). For all you middle reliever believers (Mr. B’s), keep your eyes keenly on Rosa’s spring training efforts, especially if you’re seeking holds.

Honorable Mentions
In these two subsections, you will find the Royals top two hitting prospects (Moustakas and Hosmer) and their top pitching prospect (Montgomery). This is because they are all still so young and low in the minor league ladder.

Hitters
#1 Mike Moustakas | 3B | A+ | 20 | .250/.297/.421 | 492 AB | 50 XBH | 16 HR | .171 ISO | 90:32 K:BB | 10/6 SB/CS | .280 BABIP | 42.3 GB% | 13 LD% | 44.4 FB%
After arriving with 22 homers in his first year, his sophomore slump came. Sickels, of Minor League Ball, points out his Home/Road splits were the main culprit to his stats (Home: .208/.269/.381 Road: .292/.331/.473), noting that the Royals High-A home field is difficult to play in if you’re a hitter. Another concern a few scouts have noted is how his body is transforming into a doppelganger of Butler. The added weight hasn’t deterred the Royals yet. From a fantasy perspective, he’ll have to hit well next year to stay on the fast track to the majors. This doesn’t necessarily mean 30 homers with a .350/.425/.550 slash line. However, we will want to see an improvement upon his nearly 3:1 K:BB ratio. Furthermore, it would be reassuring to see a higher line drive rate. This would show that he is making more consistent hard contact. I am still on his bandwagon, but he needs to continue to move forward.

#2 Eric Hosmer | 1B | A/A+ | 19 | .241/.334/.361 | 337 AB | 29 XBH | 6 HR | .120 ISO | 90:53 K:BB | .296 BABIP | 62.5 GB% | 12.4 LD% | 24.8 FB%
Hosmer struggled hardcore at High-A. Receiving Lasik surgery this past year, Hosmer, like other baseball players, claimed he wasn’t seeing the ball well and is hoping this surgery will improve his problem. Extremely talented and skilled, Hosmer was drafted straight out of high school with the third overall pick as scouts were drooling over his polished swing and poised hitting approach, not to mention a potential power hitting lefty. Playing in the pitching heavy Midwest League (Single-A) for most of the year, Hosmer held his own, but he’ll have to show that 2009 was more fluke than the norm.

#11 Johnny Giavotella | 2B | A+ | 21 | .258/.351/.380 | 476 AB | 38 XBH | 6 HR | .122 ISO | 54:66 K:BB | 26/9 SB/CS | .286 BABIP | 47.2 GB% | 17.4 LD% | 35 FB%
Nothing spectacular here, just a solid second baseman. And not solid like, “Oh, I really, really want him to anchor my infield (fantasy wise).” Solid like Luis Castillo. Someone who can work the count, steal bases well and doesn’t slack off. Giavotella has never been regarded as an extremely powerful hitter, but he could develop like Castillo and give the fantasy player 25 steals. He has a career slash line of .273/.352/.395 in 754 at-bats with 91:88 K:BB ratio.

Pitchers
#4 Mike Montgomery | LHP | A/A+ | 19 | 8 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 110 IP | 2.21 ERA | 2.84 FIP | 1.06 WHIP | .1 HR/9 | 6.5 H/9 | .260 BABIP | 49.7 GB% | 12.3 LD% | 31 FB%
His walk rate was 3.7 BB/9 at Single-A and was only 2.1 BB/9 at High-A, and this was only some of his improvements. Pitching 58 innings at Single-A and 52 innings at High-A, Montgomery’s stock shot up the board. His curveball is considered his best pitch, but scouts still think his 89 to 93 mph fastball has more potential to develop velocity and movement. He also throws an average changeup and the rare palmball. He is already on the fast track, don’t be surprised if Montgomery receives a September call-up if his 2010 season goes well. He’ll probably be getting a Scouting the Unknown article sometime in the upcoming summer.

As a Twins fan, he’s is the one player I would worry about in the Royals farm system with Mauer, Morneau, Span, and Kubel all being left handed hitters, especially Kubel who can’t touch lefties.

#16 Danny Duffy | LHP | A+ | 20 | 8.9 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 126 2/3 IP | 2.98 ERA | 3.08 FIP | 1.18 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | 7.7 H/9 | .294 BABIP | 42.2 GB% | 12.1 LD% | 37.4 FB%
Projecting as a number three pitcher in the rotation, Duffy has pitched well to date. The strikeout rates and control are worthy of more than I can give him at the moment. Playing above his age group and pitching well has improved his stock. With an 88 to 92 mph fastball that grades above-average, a deceptive changeup and a curve that’s his out-pitch, Duffy could see major league action, at the soonest, in 2011.

Blaine Hardy | LHP | A | 22 | 9.2 K/9 | 1.7 BB/9 | 92 1/3 IP | 2.05 ERA | 2.50 FIP | .95 WHIP | .3 HR/9 | 6.9 H/9 | .285 BABIP | 39.6 GB% | 11.9 LD% | 44.1 FB%
I’m a sucker for good strikeout rates and above-average control. Hardy is a fringe prospect at best. With a 87 to 89 mph fastball and marginal curve and a power slider (80 mph), he’ll need to repeat these numbers again for any serious consideration. Could become a solid reliever or fifth starter.