Does anyone remember when Vince Vaughn was funny? It was a time long ago in a land far, far away, your wife was still dating guys wearing Armani Exchange shirts, and George W. Bush was using words like strategrey. It was long before the abortion that was True Detective Season 2, or Couples Retreat, and sometime between Swingers, and The Breakup. In that wrinkle in time Vince Vaughn ruled the box office, and the douchy part of our soul where things like Ed Hardy t-shirts, mirror selfies, and Criss Angel performances still roam free. So where am I going with this awkwardly constructed analogy? I’ll hurry up and get to the point, today’s subject Vince Velasquez has much in common with his big screen brother in initials, way beyond his first name and banal use of the word “Bae-be”. He too started his career with a bang, and universal love during his brief stay in Houston, and then the early season dominance in 2016. And much like Mr. Vaughn, Velasquez took on the task of leading man in the drama that is the Philadelphia Phillies 2017, but unfortunately he just hasn’t been able to recapture the magic. Maybe Velasquez’s nightmare seems less like a heroin dream, and more like a string of poor performances. But the effect is still the same, you just don’t view their latest release with the same excitement you used to. So when I was tasked with covering Velasquez this week by our fearless leader Grey Albright, it felt like a choir singing to me. Perhaps it was the angelic voice of Mr. Albright, perhaps it was my paycheck. Either way, when Grey Albright comes to you and asks “Can you see what’s happin’ with this young brother”, you A. wonder when he became a member of 5% Nation, B. you profile Vince Velasquez. So to the God Grey Albright this is for you…Please, blog, may I have some more?
I was originally excited to focus on Baby Thor Mike Clevinger in my first post taking over the Two-Start Starters for M@, but the rainout on Thursday threw everything out of whack. So, I had to pivot and focus on what’s going on in Seattle. Enter Ariel Miranda and Sam Gaviglio.
Of the two starters for the Mariners right now, Miranda is the one to target. To be honest, neither one is likely to be a long-term fix for your rotation. Gaviglio is a 27-year old who has an ERA of 4.01 over seven seasons in the minor leagues, while Miranda is a 28-year old Cuban who had moderate success in the Cuban National Series and the minors. Both are scheduled to start two games next week for the Mariners.
At first glance, it would appear that Gaviglio is the tasty treat that a starter-needy fantasy owner should target. After all, he has the shiny 1.29 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Unfortunately, not only is that a very small sample size, but there are some pretty serious red flags. For starters, while he only gave up one run against the Nationals, he only struck out one batter in six innings. That shiny ERA is also aided by the fact that he actually gave up five runs, but just the one was earned. Against the White Sox in his previous start, he went five innings and only struck out two batters. In his two starts this season, he has thrown 11 innings and struck out just three batters.
But that’s not it, here is the bigger issue with Gaviglio. His ERA might be 1.29, but his FIP currently sits at 4.22. At 2.93, his FIP-to-ERA ratio is the highest of any of the 40+ two-start starters in week 9. Between his lack of strikeouts, his lackluster career in the minors, and his inflated FIP-to-ERA ratio, you better believe he is going to regress to the mean sooner rather than later. Ignore that ERA and stay away from Sammy G.
As for Miranda, I like him more and hate him less. While he doesn’t have the same sub-2.00 ERA as Gaviglio, he does have an 8.75 K/9, a less hideous .40 FIP-to-ERA, and a 5.77 K/9-to-BB/9 ratio. While he has had a couple of disastrous starts this season, he also has six starts in which he has given up two runs or fewer. You could do worse than Miranda as a two-starter starter. In fact, you could have Gaviglio. Both should be available in more than 75% of leagues. Despite the fact that the Mariners visit the Rockies next week, there are worse options for two-start starters…Please, blog, may I have some more?
Okay, this is weird, but Sonny Gray and I are complete opposites. Sonny Gray is in Bay Area, and it’s Grey Albright in Los Angeles. Weather you like it or not, that’s weird! Pun noted too! Grey Albright plays fantasy baseball; Sonny Gray plays reality baseball! It’s freaking me out! Grey Albright’s face is mustachioed; Sonny Gray’s is not. Sonny Gray is athletic; I am not. He works for a newspaper called Ballrazz, which is super-terse and serious. It’s uncanny! Yesterday, Gray (him) went 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 11 Ks, lowering his ERA to 3.34. Okay, time to take a new look. I did like him at one point in his career, before everything went sideways. His velocity and two-seam fastball are back. Right now, his two-seam is his best pitch, however, his curve is not back to where it was in 2015. Watching some video on him showed a guy that can get swings and misses, but had a bit of a favorable strike zone yesterday. I’d be careful in shallower leagues, but he looks closer to his breakout from two years ago than he has in a while. Now, if he’s married to a younger woman, I’m gonna plotz over all of our opposites. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday for fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Has there been any “sleeper” more hyped this season than Charlie Morton? It seems like we’re constantly being reminded of the spike in velocity, the swing and miss stuff, the combination of swinging strikes, and groundball rate. Knowing all this I was dying to profile Morton and see what all the noise is about. Speaking of Noise, my Pittsburgh scout, and favorite right testicle Dr. Kenneth Noisewater, has a basket full of hot takes on Morton, that mostly consist of different ways to say Charlie Morton sucks. Perhaps Noisey is right, perhaps all the lemmings in the fantasy industry are right. Much like the ATLiens that raised me to be an emotionally well adjusted gangster, I just stay in the middle and drop bombs, mostly in the toilet. I stay regular ladies and gents. Let’s take a closer look at this “new and improved” Charlie Morton, and see if it’s in fact a new recipe, or the same re-packed garbage.Please, blog, may I have some more?
As I was rummaging through player statistics looking for some bit of data that would help both me and my eight loyal readers, for some reason I began to wonder if it would be possible to add a team to an existing points league right now using only players that went largely undrafted in the majority of leagues to fill my starting lineup. I’m defining “largely undrafted” as any player with an average draft position of 220 or greater. It escapes me as to how I arrived at the 220 number, but I think it’s safe to say that anyone drafted at that point wasn’t really a player the drafting team intended to bank its success upon. So the rules are simple, I construct a starting lineup of 16 players (10 batters, 4 starting pitchers and 2 relievers) using only players with an ADP greater than 219. These players do not need to be on the waiver wire. I am allowed to take them from their current teams. Without this clause, said exercise would be futile because, at this point, all waiver wire gems have already been snatched up.
For those of you that thought draft season was over, guess again.
Without further ado, let’s draft our expansion team…Please, blog, may I have some more?
Jose Bautista is such a douche canoe. He bat-flipped after a home run that cut the Braves lead to 8-4. That’s like “Pimp my Ride” with a Hyundai. That’s like moonwalking at a bar mitzvah with toilet paper on your shoe. That’s like screaming at your recently ex-girlfriend, “I’ll never be alone, because I will always have my mom!” He’s hitting .208, and hasn’t looked right since Odor ended him like Drago ended Apollo. Any hoo! This has nothing to do with Bautista. Well, kinda. Freddie Freeman was hit on the wrist, and then all hell broke out for the better part of the Jays/Braves games. Freeman looked like he was in serious pain and he’s headed for an MRI and CT scan today. I don’t own him, but I will join your prayer hexagon if you need me. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Is there anything better than baseball on a rainy Saturday afternoon? You can’t do any yard work, you know, because it’s pouring, so you settle into your favorite chair, crack a beer, and you’re whisked away to a place much warmer, and much sunnier. Here I sit, beer in hand, ready to watch this week’s test subject Royals righty Nate Karns vs the first place Baltimore Orioles. The journeymen starter is on his 4th organization in five seasons, and there’s two ways to look at this. Either Karns can’t keep a job, or he’s highly “in-demand” by multiple teams throughout the league. The truth lies somewhere in the middle, never good enough to lock-down a rotation spot, but also good enough to find opportunity year after year. So far Karns has been a good fit in Kansas City, making his 7th start today vs. a surprisingly mediocre Orioles offense, one that ranks in the bottom half of MLB in nearly every offensive category. So the home matchup vs. Baltimore is a good one, even if it’s a first place club he’s facing…. Here’s what I saw on Saturday.Please, blog, may I have some more?
We all have fears, no matter who you are, no matter what you’ve been through, you’re scared of something. It might be clowns, maybe it’s spiders, perhaps it’s being strapped to a chair Clockwork Orange style, and forced to watch a Ben Stiller movie marathon. Totally a plausible scenario, might I add. While not quite as frightening as any of the aforementioned options, I must admit, I have developed a new fear. And no it’s not the fear of Grey mistaking me for Giancarlo, and having to have him surgically removed from my toilet leg. No, that ain’t it, though I am frightened by that thought. It’s far more topical, and far less titillating. It’s the fear of covering a bad start in my weekly pitching profiles. What fate could be worse than writing up an absolute slugfest? What if the pitcher I pick is chased in less than 3 innings? What if he trips and falls jumping imaginary lines? Shizz happens, right? So to prevent this, I decided to pick out three games, record them, and use the start I like best. In my whitewashed, pre-fab world of pitching, there are no bad starts, only starters I poorly ranked. So who did I go with? Who was this lucky recipient of my barely readable prose? Well, it just so happens, I decided to go ying to last week’s yang, and cover another young AL East starter, facing the Cubs on Sunday Night baseball. That’s right, this week’s Pitcher Profile is on Yankees righty Luis Severino. Not a bad time to dive into the young flamethrower as he’s hotter than fish grease.Please, blog, may I have some more?
What you didn’t think I was going to go full homer with my debut pitching profile? I mean, it’s as if you don’t even know me? Suffice it to say we’ve turned the keys to the Top 100 pitching ship from one homer, to another. Truth be told, it was a busy weekend, as I covered for Grey on Friday, recorded the Prospect Podcast on that night with Halp, traveled to New York for Smokey’s 40th birthday, took in the Saturday Yanks vs. O’s game with Smokey and the crew, wrote my Minor League Update, and drove back to Massachusetts Sunday morning. Not to mention I was only tasked with this honor Thursday evening, right after I returned from my oldest son’s first baseball practice of the season. So to say it’s been a hectic few days is an understatement. However, a date for Edurado Rodriguez with the Cubs seemed like a good test for his new found swing and miss tendencies. It should be mentioned, that coming into the game Ed-Rod sported a 33 at bat hitless streak vs righthanded batters. So I was going to be paying extra attention as to how he attacked righties vs lefties, and what sequencing, pitch, etc. was leading to his success. Let’s get into it.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Yesterday, Anthony Rendon went 6-for-6, 5 runs, 10 RBIs and his first three homers of the year. *gulps* Sonavabench! That is worst sonavabench I’ve had in my life and I thought my worst sonavabench was when I benched Conforto on Saturday for his double slam and legs. Five homers on my bench in two days. I feel a little uneasy from this sonavbenching. Is woozy a side effect of sonavabench? I feel legit woozy. I need to sit down. *vomits* I feel worse. “Hello, I need a paramedic. The problem? I BENCHED RENDON FOR THE TOP OFFENSIVE GAME OF THE SEASON! Yes, I have insurance. No, it’s not an HMO.” *turns on oven, sticks head in oven, reads The Bell Jar lit by the pilot light* This book is so boring, at what point does Plath mention Rendon and bite the big one? So, yeah, I’m an idiot for benching Rendon, but what can do, as my Polish neighbor used to say. On the bright side, he appears out of his early season slump. That’s a consolation prize like coming in second on The Bachelor and all you get is herpes. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?