Fantasy Baseball Advice

Grey and Rudy are letting me run a team for Razzball, and I’m totally pumped about it.  See, this is my first venture into the realm of expert leagues or writer’s leagues or whatever the hell you wanna call them and the pressure on a rookie like me is enormous.  Grey told me I can only cover White Sox prospects if I don’t finish in the top eight.  I feel like Andrew Luck or something… probably bigger than that, actually.  Anyway.  The auction happened a couple Thursdays ago and my strategy was simple:  don’t look stupid.  I’m not quite sure if I’ve succeeded in that regard.  You tell me.  Click here to see the complete auction results.

Format:  14 teams, mixed, roto, 5×5 – C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, Util, SP, RP, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL, DL, DL, DL

C – Joe Mauer $14

C – John Buck $1

1B – Ike Davis $12

2B – Ian Kinsler $34

3B – Mark Reynolds $10

SS – Asdrubal Cabrera $14

MI – Daniel Murphy $4

CI – Mike Carp $3

OF – Ryan Braun $43

OF – Michael Bourn $23

OF – Yoenis Cespedes $7

OF – Carlos Beltran $7

OF – Nick Markakis $8

U – Colby Rasmus $3

–

SP – Matt Cain $20

RP – Joe Nathan $8

P – Stephen Strasburg $20

P – Matt Thornton $7

P – Ted Lilly $4

P – Justin Masterson $3

P – Colby Lewis $3

P – Edinson Volquez $4

P – Gavin Floyd $2

Bench – Sergio Romo $1

Bench – Phil Hughes $3

Bench – Vance Worley $2

My goal was to stay on budget.  I targeted a $180/$80 split between hitting and pitching and I ended up at $183/$77.  Not bad.  I also wanted to make sure I had some dough left near the end in order to ensure I could buy a few of my favorite sleepers for $2 or $3.  This plan backfired.  Not that I didn’t have money near the end – I had plenty – but rather, there was literally no one left who I wanted for two bucks.  That’s the reason you see purchases like Phil Hughes for $3 and Vance Worley for $2.  Spend it if you got it, right?  Hell yeah I’ll bid you up on an injured Mike Carp – I still have twelve bucks left to spend on three negative-value players.  No point in leaving dollars out there. 

Favorite Buys

I was pleased to get Braun at $43, especially when six guys – Tulo ($49), Miggy ($49), Kemp ($46), Bautista ($46), Pujols ($45), Cano ($44) – went for more.  I thought I got great value across my entire outfield, actually.  Beltran is a health risk, sure, but I’ll take on that risk for $7 – upside is worth twice that, at least.  I also love the flexibility Daniel Murphy provides in a deep CI/MI league like this.  I’ll take him for four bucks any day.

Least Favorite Buys

Ted Lilly and Mike Carp are on the DL and I spent a combined $7 on the two.  The league has five DL slots, so this isn’t a killer, but I’m certainly not thrilled.  I knew Lilly was having issues when I bought him, but I was hopeful he wouldn’t end up on the DL.  I’m also growing increasingly skeptical on Volquez.  He was one of those I’ve-got-a-lot-of-money-left-so-I-might-as-well-pay-for-the-upside guys near the end of the auction.

Most Important Thing To Note

This is just the beginning.  Drafting is certainly the most exciting component of the fantasy baseball season, but it’s not the most important.  Any winning team I’ve had in the past has been based on in-season management.  I enjoy the grind of the baseball season and I’m sure that by mid-season my team will look quite different from how it appears at this moment.  Of course, I’ve never been up against such a knowledgeable group of competitors.  I’m looking forward to see how my skills stack up.  I’ll be sure to keep you posted.

Yoenis Cespedes homered in yesterday’s second day of kinda real baseball played about six hours before I wake up.  I wonder where Cespedes is being drafted now.  When Rudy and I took our giant beach balls to early March drafts and took Cespedes in a bunch of drafts, he was going cheap.  I wonder if now all those other ‘perts are suddenly stepping up because others are excited about him.  I wonder if everyone else is a Monday morning quarterback with their advice.  I wonder if Yoenis will hit 30 mistake pitch homers.  I wonder if he’ll make adjustments and hit for a decent average too.  I wonder how this would sound read by Morgan Freeman.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training (and real baseball) for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Bartolo Colon – 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 6 Ks. I still wouldn’t go near him with a three foot churro. (Only partly because waving a three foot churro near Bartolo would be similar to going to a grizzly bear observatory wearing nothing, but bikini briefs made of Marshmallow Fluff. Talk about a Fluffernutter — oofa!)

Mike Carp – Mike Sashimi ended up on the DL after one game playing in Japan.  He should’ve never said, “Come on, pal!  Fugu me!”

Jason Vargas – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 3 Ks.  I think Vargas is gonna have one of those seasons where you think because he’s the Mariners’ number two that he’s gonna take a number two on your stats, but he won’t.  For now, I’ll call him a Marginer with future appeal.

Jesus Montero – 1-for-3 as he started his 2nd straight game at DH.  Uh-oh.  I was hoping to see Montero start at least one of these games at catcher, but now it’s looking like he may only start when Olivo rests, which would mean once or twice a week behind the plate for Montero and mid-May for catcher eligibility.

Dustin Ackley – 0-for-4, knocking his season pace down to 81/81, but will probably come closer to 8/8, which looks like what Dorothy Hamill would put after her signature.

Justin Smoak – 1-for-4 with a homer.  Is there anything more satisfying than a home run for a guy you pick for two games before the season (actually) starts?  It was almost as satisfying to drop him right after.  It was like a one night stand where everyone has the same expectations.  (I promise you when there’s a full slate of games I won’t talk this much about the A’s and M’s.)

Jonathan Broxton – Royals are leaning towards Broxton for the closer role.  Perhaps a see-saw isn’t the fairest way to determine who should get saves.  Broxton is such a wild card at this point that you have to hold onto Holland in most leagues until he shows some level of dominance/health.

Carl Crawford – Looking at returning at the end of April.  With a wrist injury, I’d choose to March.  Valentine said he’ll only need 50 ABs in rehab, I said, “No, no, no.”

Bobby Abreu – The Los Angeles Suburb of Los Angeles Angels almost got rid of the Abreu-tross from around their DH neck last night.  He came inches from being an Indian, but now the chances of it happening have reduced to 50%.  If it happens, it’s better for both clubs.  I’m just not sure how much better it will be for Kendrys’s playing time.  Abreu wasn’t stealing much time from him anyway.  Stealing time from Kendrys is the fact that he missed 273 games in the last two years because he celebrates like a buffoon.  Angels have already said Kendrys will sit vs. lefties because of health.  Not because of the sourpuss with the big contract that they can’t get rid of.  Yeah, I used the word sourpuss.  Now get off my lawn!

Freddy Sanchez – Expected to start the year on the DL.  Welcome to the club, we expected that in October of 2010.  That’s like predicting a fart two years from now will smell.

Jeff Samardzija – Won a spot in the Cubs’ rotation.  He’ll be in the first Buy/Sell of the season later today.  You can hardly wait.  No, you.

Brian Wilson – Bochy said Wilson was never scratched on Wednesday, he wasn’t supposed to pitch.  So Brian Wilson owners can Smile.

Chris Perez – In five pitches, he threw a complete inning.  After the game, he said, “The quicker the inning, the more time for mullet grooming.”  He should be fine for Opening Day (The One Not Starting Between 3 AM and 6 AM.)

Scott Podsednik – Told reporters he’s not making the Phils’ roster with them opting for Juan Pierre.  Can’t him and Juan Pierre get into one pair of Ryan Howard’s pants and be a stealing hybrid that sounds like a French revolutionary, Robspierre.

Adam LaRoche – Returned to the Nats lineup after nursing a foot injury for, like, two weeks.  Is it me or is LaRoche always hurt?  He should change his name to Adam LaOuch.

Carl Pavano – A police search warrant revealed that a classmate of Pavano threatened to reveal a homosexual affair with the pitcher if he didn’t buy him an SUV.  I’ll never look at his porn mustache the same.

I almost didn’t write this post because I don’t think you should be looking for sleeper 1st basemen.  It’s a no-no that makes my no-no area shrink.  Then I got to thinking and then I started watching Chopped, then I took a nap, then I had a snack, then I remembered I was writing a post about sleeper 1st basemen, but forgot why I didn’t want to write the post in the first place so I wrote it.  Now, you should not target these guys for your 1st base slot, but you could fill your corner infidel or Utility slot with one of these guys.  But, whatever you do, don’t punt 1st base.  This is a supplement to the top 20 1st basemen of 2012 fantasy baseball. These are 1st basemen that I’ll be setting the ol’ crosshairs on at my 2012 fantasy drafts after the top options are gone.  These are guys that are currently being drafted after the top 200.  Click on the player’s name where applicable to read more and see their 2012 projections.  Anyway, here’s some 1st basemen to target for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Sike!  Before we get into the post, we have a big announcement about the RCLs.  Okay, maybe not that big.  But kinda big.  No, we didn’t sell out to Kotex and will now be bringing you all the latest and greatest Kotex news.  Though I do hear Kotex makes a great product!  What, you like to be wet?  No, this isn’t about our podcast that will be arriving shortly.  (Our theme song is bizzonkers, seriously.  Like seriously, seriously.)  Our announcement is Rudy and I and a group of fantasy baseball ‘perts will be taking part in this year’s Razzball Commenter League (The RCL).  Funston — check!  Behrens — check!  Pianowski — yeah, we got more than just Yahoo bloggers.  Also, in the league are Eric Mack from SI.com, Dalton Del Don from Rotowire, Eno Sarris from Fangraphs, Brad Evans (okay, so we got a bunch of Yahoo guys), Tim Dierkes from MLB Trade Rumors and many, many more (well, maybe two more).

For what it’s Wuertz, we asked everyone at ESPN (whose email we had, which is quite a few) to participate but they all said no.  If you want to take to the streets and ‘occupy’ them, go bug the crap out of Matthew Berry on Twitter telling him to take part.  Mention how we’re sending them 40-plus leagues to ESPN that will all be going to Yahoo next year if they don’t pony up one ‘pert.

So, yes, you will be competing against the likes of us, and them and the other them that were already playing in The RCL.  If Rudy or I by some chance in H-E double hockey sticks were to win the whole thing, we’ll give the prize — A MEMBER’S ONLY JACKET! — to the runner up.  But if, say, Funston wins the jacket, I think he wants it.  Anyway, time is of the essence, if you want to compete against us, them and the other thems.  Sign up here.  Not in this post.

Mike Carp – You may ask yourself where is that upside 1st baseman?  And you may ask yourself where is the 30 homer potential?  And you may find yourself drafting Mike Carp.  And you may tell yourself this is not my beautiful 1st baseman, 30-homer upside potential!  And the days go by, wishing for more home runs.

Brandon Belt – I have Belt down for some astronomic projections.  Brandon Belt is my Chris Davis and I am his Bill James.  My projections buckle if Belt doesn’t get enough play. (I think that’s a pun point!)

Chris Davis – Speaking of the devil, I don’t have Chris Davis listed anywhere in my projections because I think he’ll probably cause more damage with his K-rate than he’s worth.  You know who has him projected for 20 homers and a .265 average?  Oh, c’mon, you don’t even have to ask.  Bill James’s sun rises and falls on his love for Chris Davis.  If Davis can get 450 ABs, he could hit 25 homers and .240.  To get 450 ABs, a lot would have to break right for him and he’d actually have to produce to force his way into the lineup on a regular basis.

Yonder Alonso – Yonder’s upside is Gaby Sanchez.  That’s not me giving him a compliment.  If he gives you that, then he’ll be a valuable late round flyer in NL-Only leagues while fluctuating between serviceable and yawnstipating in mixed leagues.

Bryan LaHair – He sounds like a wrestling jobber, and it’s not far off from his current value as a major leaguer either.  He’s a placeholder for Anthony Rizzo.  His best chance for fantasy value is having one Baha Man season before disappearing into oblivion.

Garrett Jones – Robot Jones didn’t make it in my top 300 for 2012 fantasy baseball.  If we were an NL-Only site, I’d talk about the beauty of The Robot.  But since I brought it up, what the hey!  If you’re in a deep daily league, you take someone like Jones, who does damage against righties and platoon him in and out of your lineup.  Last year, in 355 ABs vs. righties, he hit 14 homers, .262 with 5 steals while against lefties he had only 2 homers and hit .147.  Garrett Jones is the new Matt Diaz!

Lucas Duda – What’s the highest tone your voice can reach?  It should crack your voice a little Peter Brady-style you’re going so high.  Okay, now take that highest tone and say, “It’s Duda’s day.”  Now say it again and again until when asked any question by anyone you reply, “It’s Duda’s day.”  Now you’re crazy.  Sorry, but it shouldn’t have been that easy to make you crazy.  Duda has next to no speed, but might have an outside chance for 25 homers.  Don’t find yourself in September looking at him, mumbling to yourself shoulda coulda Duda.

Twins aren’t winning.  Twins haven’t won all year, actually.  You can look it up.  They’re 0-for-2011.  But Ben Revere wants to steal bases for no reason.  I love that.  I’d prefer my fantasy players act selfishly and just try to inflate their own value.  Maybe that’s lame, but we’re talking about fantasy baseball.  We’re not talking about getting chicks with your IROC.  When a player tries to inflate his own value, it helps us fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term!).  With so many players shut down or resting for the playoffs, the best thing we can hope for right now is someone who just wants some stats.  Revere is the player.  In the last week, Revere is hitting .464 with 5 runs, 4 RBIs and 3 steals.  In the last ten games, he has 7 steals.  (BTW, the Twins lost each of those ten games.  Ha!)  He’s not glamorous, you’re not going to want to keep him for next year (outside of very deep leagues that have a “Must Have A Ben” clause), but if you need steals, grab him quick.  Now if only Revere played for the Red Sox, it would be like a player on the Yanks named Sam Yonkers.  Or a Jimmy Burbank on the Dodgers.  Or Sadaharu Tacoma on the Mariners.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Mike Carp - He’s hitting .400 over the last week with two homers.  This from our frequent commenter, Rabbit, “So how much of a team can you fill up with fish-themed players?  You’ve got Carp, Trout, and Anthony Bass.  I’d say you can include Jason Bay and Dan, Tim and Kyle Hudson (but not Vernon Wells – the first two bodies of water contain fish, the other better not) and maybe one of the Thames (whichever one pronounces his name like the river).  Jerry Sands and Brandon Beachy seem a close enough fit.  If you push it a bit, your catcher could be Pierzynski (Where do you fish from?  The pier, Zynski.), and maybe you could have Wilson “Exxon” Valdez (he sure killed a lot of fish).”

Nolan Reimold – Has three homers and three steals in the last ten games.  Sure, he’s flopped a bunch in the past, but who are you to judge Reimold?  Fred Savage?

Jerry Sands – Him and Bugsy helped build Vegas and now Sands is hitting .458 over the last week with 2 homers.

Salvador Perez – In his short time in the majors, he’s hitting .344 with 2 homers.  In the even shorter time of the last week, he’s hitting .579 with one homer.  In the even shortest time of his last at-bat, he’s 1-for-1.  That’s batting one thousand!  Use Ted Williams’s frozen medulla oblongata and carve out Perez’s Hall of Fame plaque!

John Mayberry Jr. – With the Phils clinched, Mayberry’s seeing more time and hitting (.409 with 2 homers in the last week).  It’s Mayberry BFD.

Joel Peralta – Farnsworth should return today, but you never know what can happen, except there will be a plague of locust as we know from The Book of Joel Peralta.

Greg Holland – Besides the saves (which he is getting now), he’s had a much better year than Soria.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious!

Mike Aviles – Starting at 3rd base for the Sawx over the last week and he’s hitting .385 with 2 homers.  Last September, he had 6 homers and hit .357.  I accept this H2H trophy on behalf of all the men and women in the Armed Forces, and Mike Aviles.

Eric Young Jr. – Do I dare recommend him again?  I dare, I dare.  Do you care to pick him up again?  You care, you care.  Do you have someone to change your baby’s diaper?  Au pair, au pair.

Mike Moustakas – Over the last seven days, he has 2 homers and is hitting .500.  Finally, someone sprayed some Windex on his bat.

Lonnie Chisenhall – It seems inevitable that all of these guys that are hitting in September are going to be overrated next March.  Cust kayin’.

Brent Morel – Not only is he hitting (4 homers in the last ten games) but he seems like a funghi.

Cory Luebke - If you want a list of starters for the last week of the season, head over to the borderline fantasy starter post.  I wrote it while covering my eyes during the elevator scene in Drive.

SELL

Joakim Soria – I don’t think he’s going to pitch again this year.  Seriously, no Joakim.

Mitch Moreland – Before he just wasn’t hitting, now he’s not playing.  You see how that could hurt his value?  I.e., stop your Mitchin’.

Brett Lawrie – You guys will always have those moments you shared.  No one can take those from you.  Not even the IRS.

Troy Tulowitzki – Unlike previous years, the Rockies threw up the white flag in late August.  Hey, on the bright side, you don’t need a huge September from Tulo to make his season worthwhile.

Carlos Gonzalez – Probably done for the year.  His season ending stats are 92/26/92/.295/20.  My preseason projections were 90/24/95/.285/20.  Is that a boo-ya?  Or just boo-ya adjacent?

Anyone that is not going to help you win right now – There’s no time left, drop anyone that is not playing and add players that are.  Now excuse me while I go see Moneyball.  BTW, I’d love to hear a review of Moneyball by Joe Morgan.  “Is that John Kruk playing opposite Brad Pitt?  He was excellent!  I didn’t know he could play so Jewish.”

Ian Kennedy loves each and everyone.  That’s why he gave you 12 Ks yesterday over 8 innings while only allowing one hit.  You say, “No, he doesn’t.  He doesn’t even know me.  How could he love me?”  You remember when you couldn’t find a parking spot at Chick-fil-A last week and you were about to give up when a chicken sandwich fell into the flat bed of your El Camino?  That was dropped there by Ian Kennedy.  So you tell me he doesn’t love you.  You tell me he doesn’t love you when he has a sub-3 ERA over 216 innings.  Tell me that.  A 1.08 WHIP and 194 Ks, he gives you that too, unconditionally.  Tell me he judges you when you try to fashion a belt out of twine.  He doesn’t judge you.  He loves you.  Love him back.  I do.  As for 2012 fantasy baseball, I’m thinking Kennedy could be a tad overpriced.  Yeah, my love just went out the window.  His BABIP’s a bit low and his LOB% is a bit high.  She says she likes the ocean.  I’ll look at him more in-depth over the offseason, but he’s got FIPping problems I need evaluate.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Wily Mo Pena – 1-for-1 with 3 walks.  He has a career .303 OBP.  That’s like an 80 to 1 shot he can avoid making an out in four at-bats.  There must be a kid in a Seattle hospital who really cares about OBP.  (BTW, his hometown was the winner of the “Best Town To Substitute Into The Lion King Song” contest.)

Mike Carp – 2-for-4, 5 RBIs and a homer.  Now has two homers in the last three games.  The one nice thing about playing for a non-contender at this time of year is the collective you has nothing to play for so players can go out and be selfish to prove their worth.  Unlike those silly playoff teams saving their players for games that matter.

Alex Liddi – 2-for-4 with a homer and he became the first paisan born in Italy to play in the major leagues in 50 years.  That’s a one spicy prospect!

Dustin Ackley – Mariners scored 12 runs and Ackley didn’t play.  Holy sit!

Asdrubal Cabrera – 3-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 23rd homer.  Has tailed off quite a but after the ASB (.233, 5 steals), but his power numbers have stayed fairly consistent.  Definitely peaked in May but 4 homers in August isn’t too shabby.

Chris Parmelee – 2-for-5 with his 2nd homer in three games as he bats .368 through 38 ABs.  In related roundup news, Alex Liddi likes to call him Chris Parm.

Ben Revere – 3-for-5 with 2 steals.  Now has 32 steals and is getting dangerously close to the point where he’s going to elicit questions next year.  “Hey, Grey, magnificent ‘stache.  Magnificent!  So what do you think of Ben Revere?  Obvious bargain, right?”  A guy with no power, around 30 steal speed is a dime a dozen in most mixed leagues.  Good waiver wire pickup is different than a good draft pick.

Ricky Romero – 9 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Similarly to Kennedy, he has some FIPping issues too.  We’ll look at in the offseason.  We’ll debate, we’ll laugh, we’ll cry, we’ll scratch ourselves, we’ll scratch someone else thinking it’s ourselves.

Craig Kimbrel – 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  Bad week to quit closing out games.

Troy Tulowitzki – Getting closer to getting back on the field after taking batting practice and participating in other baseball activities.  Ya know, like spitting and grabbing himself.

Cory Luebke – 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Even if this start was in Coors, it was another solid year for Hodgepadres, and next year I’m definitely drafting only Padres pitchers on one team.  I gotta try it before the apocalypse.

Octavio Dotel – Got the save yesterday.  Motte came in for the ninth, messed around and gave up a triple, double, but it was not a good day.  La Russa lifted him with the bases empty and now who knows who’s the closer.  My guess is it’s still Motte, but we shall see.  Or not.  Or probably.

Jarrod Parker – Was officially called up yesterday.  I already went over my Jarrod Parker fantasy.  I wrote it while waiting in line at the DMV to have them change my height from five-seven to five-eight.

Mariano Rivera – Everyone’s heard by now that he broke Trevor Hoffman’s save record.  Surprised there wasn’t more made of this, but another record was broken yesterday.  Kerry Wood was deemed “done for the season” before the end of the season for a record 11 of 13 seasons.

Matt Angle – 3-for-8 with 2 steals in the doubleheader.  Far from an exciting name, but if you’re desperate for steals, he should get them over the next week-plus.  That’s your Angle.

Jed Lowrie – 2-for-5, 4 RBIs, 3 runs and a homer.  Hasn’t been playing because of a bum shoulder.  Try some soap and getting rid of the shopping cart filled with junk.  He’s back now and, if his bat is hot, the Sawx will play him.

Geovany Soto – 3-for-3, 5 RBIs and 2 homers.  I’ve been behind the scenes at Razzball HQ preparing the end of the season lists that will come in October and Soto wasn’t even in the top 20 catchers.  Though one big night may change that.  That was what they call a tease.

Mike Stanton – 2-for-3, 3 runs, 2 RBIs and 2 homers.  After the game, he dedicated the 2nd home run to his biggest fan.  Me.  At least that’s how I cut the interview together with my iMovie.

Omar Infante – 2-for-5 and his 6th homer.  Nobody puts Infante in the corner.

Brad Hand – With the innings starting to creep up, the Marlins might shut him down.  Right now, the Marlins are talking to the Hand.