Fantasy Baseball Advice

Stop the press. Who is that?  Vicki Vale?  Nope.  Ricky Romero, Ricky Romero.  Yesterday, Romero went 8 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks with 8 baserunners.  Let’s go in the Wayback Machine… Cue dream sequence music, activate wavy screen… Here we are back on April 20th, “(Romero’s) walks are very low (for him), and he’s left a lot of guys on base, so he will see a correction in his future (SMACK!), but his FIP is only 3.86 (now at 4.20).  …Might want to try a little R & R. (POW!) Oh, and get Ben Zobrist right now even though he only has 3 homers.”  And that’s me quoting me and making up a false quote about Zobrist!  Pretty much all that holds true from back in April.  Ricky Romero continues to get lucky with men he’s leaving on base, so that could turn around and bite him at any moment.  But you really should own him at this point, though I wouldn’t start him in The Jetstream next time out.  Slide, slide, slippity slide… The Jetstream!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Elijah Dukes – Frequent commenter, Doc said, “Dukes sent to AAA on Wednesday. Nats host Domestic Violence Awareness Day at Nationals Park on Friday.” Nats seem like they’re going from 5-tool outfielders to 1-tool — Dunn, Willingham… Maybe they can get Jack Cust to play center.

Sean Burnett – Gave up the game-tying homer to Cody Ross.  Welcome to the Washington Nationals organization.  If you wish to excel, you’ve come to the wrong place.  Here you will either fail or be ignored when you succeed.  Don’t bother with the life preservers.  On his way out of town, Dukes punctured them all.

Kelly Johnson – Cox says Prado’s has won the starting job over Kelly Johnson.  Bad year to be a Johnson or a Wang.

Alexei Ramirez – Hurt his middle finger and will have X-Rays.  I’m preparing to give him my middle finger if he’s out for an extended time.

Mike Aviles – Out for the season with Tommy John surgery.  As opposed to, out for the season with terrible stats as he had been.

Justin Morneau – Left yesterday’s game with a slight groin pull.  Isn’t that what they booked Pee Wee Herman on?  Word out of the Twin Cities is Morneau should be okay.

Brandon Webb – Here’s the good news, Webb doesn’t need season-ending surgery.  Here’s the bad news, he’s not scheduled to pick up a baseball any time soon.  Everyone’s talking about dropping Peavy, but I’d expect Peavy to return before Webb.

Josh Johnson – 3 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 9 baserunners and 1 debt of gratitude to Badenhop for bailing him out.  Not to be a nervous Nelly and start putting Band-Aids on my face, but I hope Johnson wasn’t lackluster because of any sort of injury.

Leo Nunez – Got the save, Meyer got the vulture win.  Who ya gonna call? Maroone!

Jordan Zimmermann – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  Continues to pitch much better than his 4.52 ERA indicates.

James Shields – 7 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 Ks.  Would’ve been too easy to take him out prior to the 8th inning when he had only given up two runs.  *shakes fist at sky*  Maddon!!!

Brad Bergesen – 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks, 4 baserunners vs. the Sawx.  High GB %, Low K Rate. Like a featherweight, he doesn’t knock opponents out as much as outlast them and wins on points. That’s serviceable enough if he’s fighting against pushover opponents in friendly confines like the NL West (see Cook, Aaron) but the heavy punchers of the AL East….forget about it.

Koji Uehara – Out with a tear in his elbow.  Punt!

George Sherrill – 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  With the trade deadline less than a month away, Sherrill’s auditioning for the job of Nats closer.

Mike Pelfrey – 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 6 Ks.  Has been terrifically yawnstipating this year, averaging about 5 and two-thirds per start with a 4.26 ERA and 1.44 WHIP and no Ks.

Jason Hammel – 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks, 5 baserunners.  Has a 2.13 ERA away from home.  I’ll say it again for the people in the back of the room, 2.13 away from Coors.  Unfortunately, he’s at home for his next three of four starts.

Clayton Kershaw – 5 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit.  Hopefully Kershaw’s niche doesn’t remain these 5 inning affairs.  Don’t want no short stint man.

Juan Rivera – HR yesterday as picks up in July as he was hitting in June, a month that saw him hit 8 homers.  Yes, months can see.

Jered Weaver – 5 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  Ouch.  Wait, what?  Oh.  Ouch.

Vladimir Guerrero – 3-for-4, 0 RBIs, has two homers on the year.  Maicer Izturis has 2 homers on the year.  Cust kayin’.

Yovani Gallardo/Adam Wainwright – Dozen Ks and one earned run a piece as they faced David Wright +8 and The Team That Let Bonds Break Aaron’s Record and Now Karma’s Repaying, respectively.

Johnny Cueto – 6 IP, 0 ER.  Ah, it’s nice to be done with interleague.

Jay Bruce – 0-for-3, batting .212 on the year.  I see what he’s doing.  He’s setting himself up to be a sleeper next year.  Pretty sneaky, Bruce.

Randy Wells – 7 IP, 1 ER.  I thought he was done being productive a few starts ago.  Wells obviously thought different.  He has a solid K to Walk ratio and is worth taking a chance on in 10 team leagues and deeper.

Hank Blalock – 2 HRs, now has 16 on the year as he resumes the role of oft-injured 3rd baseman that has to play DH because he’s oft-injured.

Frank Francisco – 1 IP, 3 ER.  Sure, this is about as much as a limb as John Cusack playing a misfit hipster with a strange job who girls like as a friend until he declares his love in some offbeat fashion, but Francisco’s not right.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wilson getting saves again.

The title was part of a special Simpsons that Kim Jong Il commissioned where Ralph Wiggum’s mouth is jammed shut full of Korean bean paste.  Stupid American!  Last year in 317 ABs, Shin-Soo Choo had 14 HRs and 4 steals while batting .309.  Though, as I used to say to one ex-girlfriend, “Beware the small sample size.” Hmm… Maybe that’s oversharing.  Choo’s last two months were a bit-torrent, to incorrectly use the slang of the kids.  If you were to project Choo’s last year stats out over a full season with a full-time job, you get the wrong idea.  He’s not a 25+ home run guy.  The good thing (as of right now), he does have the full time job.  In 2009, we should expect Shin-Soo Choo to have less power than he showed, but more speed. Think more along the lines of 20 home runs and 10 steals. To give you an old school, random idea of who to expect, Baseball-Reference says Shin-Soo Choo is most like Marty Cordova.  That seems about right.  Marty went 16/11 in his 2nd year of full-time duty… (BTW, A big, warm Razzball welcome to Marty Cordova as he Googles himself. Hope you’re wearing your SPF while you tan.) …I’d think Shin-Soo Choo could pull off about the same as Marty C.   I’d put his 2009 projections at about 19/11/.280.  Not Ryan Ludwick from last year as Berry said, but helpful.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Jason Kubel – Jason Kubel turns 27 in 2009.  As David Copperfield might say, “That shizz is magical!”  Kubel’s not going to win fantasy baseball’s most valuable player award in 2009.  He may not win Most Valuable Twin in 2009, but he can give you usable HRs, Runs, RBIs and average.  I see Kubel’s 2009 projections as 70/24/70/.280.  No, that’s not incredible, but look at Jermaine Dye’s projections, 80/30/90/.275/3.  Sure, Dye’s way more of a lock for those numbers than Kubel, but there’s still a place for Kubel, even if he only plays against righties.

J.D. Drew – Going from Choo to Kubel to Drew is like going from yawnstipating to boring to hated.  Way to attract an audience, Grey!  Drew may be injured by the time you read this, if so, disregard.  If he’s not injured, he should be owned.

James McDonald – I prefer NL starters and love NL West starters.  In particular, much love for Dodgers starters since they should have support.  James McDonald may not be mixed league material, but he could get there real quick.

Joey Votto – Off to a hot start, and it will continue.  As I said in the top 20 1st basemen for 2009, he can jump to Berkman’s level.

Adam Lind – Just when you thought it was safe to start your AL pitchers against the Jays.  For this year, I like Lind better than Snider.

Matt Cain – I said somewhere that he could be better than Lincecum this year.  And that’s me vaguely attributing a prediction to myself!

David Murphy/Marlon Byrd – I’m telling you this platoon can get you… See number 302/3.

Chris Davis – Okay, he’s sucking dog balls right now.  Agreed.  Are people panicking?  Exploit the weak!  He didn’t suddenly lose his 30/100 potential.

Fred Lewis – Beans don’t burn on the grill!  Get up that hill, Lewis.

Manny Parra – I still have faith.  It’s waning gibbous, but it’s still there.

SELL

A.J. Burnett – If you really think he’s going to throw 200 innings this year, you’re fooling yourself.  You know what happens when you fool yourself?  You end like that guy who eats a lunchmeat sandwich out of a Ziploc bag and thinks he has friends, then no one shows up at his karaoke birthday party.  If you don’t know that guy… Lay off the lunchmeat!

Chris Getz – See a quarter of a centimeter below.

DeWayne Wise – These two suck.  Don’t worry, Guillen will move them both down soon as he *pinkie to mouth* wisens up.

Mike Aviles – My preseason predictions for him are 80/10/55/.295/10 — Do you know how boring that is in actuality?  You’re looking at three-quarters of a home run or three-quarters of a steal every week and a half to two weeks.  Belch.

Aubrey Huff – I hate to sell low on people, but if you can find a sucker leaguemate who thinks last year can happen again.  Unload the Huff.

Chris Ray – Outside of keeper leagues, drop this guy until he figures it out.

Bronson Arroyo – Carpal tunnel syndrome.  Hampers his pitching and guitar playing.  Two birds, one stone.

Edinson Volquez – I don’t own him in any league and I told you I was done with Volquez in the top 20 starters for 2009 post.  He’ll have better starts than his Wednesday one, but he’s closer to a 4.25 ERA pitcher than a 3.50 one.

Joe Saunders – He looked great in the Opening Day start.  He was facing the A’s offense.  They’re not so good.

Alex Rodriguez – Rather than a Sell, this is more of a Hold.  No, not because A-Rod seems like he would enjoy cuddling.  A-Rod is aiming for a late-April return.  Will he be the A-Rod from before the hip injury, but after his cousin was injecting him in the ass?  Will he return to in medias res injection levels?  Will he have a setback?  Will he say the hell with baseball and join Madonna on her “Buff Old Ladies” tour of Africa?   Do I even know what ‘in medias res’ means?  Lots of questions need to be answered.  But, guess what, Maverick?  If you own A-Rod, you’ve already invested in the draft pick for him.  You can’t go back on that now.  So rather than selling him for a 4th round pick you could’ve just drafted instead of him, just hold him and hope he returns to form.

Admit it, you stay at the Luxor because it’s adjacent to the Mandalay Bay at a third of the price (and they have inclinators instead of elevators!).  You see a bottle of Acme Store Brand Tomato Sauce Medley and you think that’s not aftertaste, that’s a persistence of flavor!  Photoshop — bleh!  You have scissors and paste!  Cellphone?  You can yell really loud.  This, friends, is the economy of our times, so why not use some of that thriftiness towards fantasy baseball?  Sure, everyone would like to have ten first round picks and start Miguel Cabrera at their Utility spot, but it’s just not feasible.  You need some cheap alternatives.  Anyway, here’s some players that are going very early in fantasy baseball drafts and their cheap alternatives:

Adrian Gonzalez – Yes, his homers have been trending up, but he plays his home games in Petco and his average is trending down.  He also needed almost 700 plate appearances last year to accumulate 36 HRs.

Cheap Alternative:  Paul Konerko will match Gonzalez in power and be a lot closer in average than you might think.

Brian Roberts – Hey, it’s Grey’s favorite whipping boy.  In 600 ABs last year Roberts hit .296 with 9 home runs and 40 steals.

Cheap Alternative:  Kaz Matsui hit .293 with 6 home runs and 20 steals in only 375 at-bats.  If Matsui can avoid Jockular Sphincteritis, he should be fine late in a draft.

Chris Davis – What no one knew in Port Charles is Chris Davis is really Bill James’s biological son fathered out of wedlock with the au pair.  On next week’s General Hospital!

Cheap Alternative – Mark Reynolds.

Derek Jeter – Shocker, I know.  I wonder if he was butt ugly and got no poontang if he would be as overrated as he is.  Wait, let’s ask Khalil Greene.

Cheap Alternative:  Anyone.  I keed.  Mike Aviles will match Jeter’s numbers.  So if you think you need Jeter on your team, take a deep breath and grab Aviles eight rounds later.

Ichiro Suzuki – Itchy-san is projected for 7/.315/35.  Those numbers make me want Brian Roberts, at least he’s at 2nd base.  Seriously, you people are going to give me an ulcer.  Why do you want to see Grey suffer?  Why?!

Cheap Alternative: Cameron Maybin.  Sure, he may hit .260, but whatever.  Learn to cope, it’ll help you later in life.

The guys on this list are going after the 1st ten rounds in your 2009 fantasy drafts.  But, for the LP, I would absolutely draft Utley, Phillips, etc. if they fell to me at the right spot.   This is a supplement to the top 20 2nd basemen of 2009 fantasy baseball. These are 2nd basemen that I’ll be setting the ol’ crosshairs on at my 2009 fantasy drafts after the top options are gone.  Click on the player’s name where applicable to read more and see their 2009 projections.  Anyway, here’s some 2nd basemen to target for 2009 fantasy baseball:

PSYCHE!  Before we get to the 2nd basemen to target, small site update.  Frequent commenter and F.O.R., Figgy, made this fantasy baseball tiers thingamajack that I think some of you might be interested in.  Thanks, Figgy!  Make sure you scroll to the right on the fantasy baseball tiers thingamajack, it goes over.  It can also be found in the sidebar on the left under ‘Fantasy Baseball Features’ and under the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings at the top.  Okay, on to the 2nd basemen.

Jose Lopez – I really wanted to write a sleeper post about this doode.  I did.  I ended up not writing it because I just couldn’t find enough to get excited about.  If that sounds like the exact opposite thing you want to hear when looking for guys to target, it kinda is.  But these are 2nd basemen, so you’re not going to find an insanely valuable hidden gem like when Max, your Golden Retriever, pooped out your dead Nana’s broach.

Ian Stewart – Unfortunately, he’s not 2nd base eligible in a lot of leagues.

Mike Aviles – He’s a poor man’s Kelly Johnson.  That’s really not a big compliment, but, late enough in a draft, Aviles is worth a flier.

Rickie Weeks – If he doesn’t come down with a case of a strained something-or-other, potentially Mike Cameron at 2nd base.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Think about the giggles you’ll get from your 12-year-old cousin if you have Asdrubal and Pujols on the same team.

Mark Teahen – He doesn’t have eligibility yet but the Royals are trying him out at 2nd.  I wish they’d just go with Alberto Callaspo.  If Teahen wins the job, and I’m skeptical, he could offer some value at 2nd.  If Callaspo wins the job, I’m buying.  He can hit (and run while intoxicated) and he has speed.

Emmanuel Burriss – SAGNOF if he wins the job.

Felipe Lopez – Here’s one last guy who I haven’t discussed much on this site, which is for shame because I really like him this year.  The last time he played a full season in a hitter’s park he went 97/23/85/.291/15.  Now he’s had a lot of crappy seasons since then but he’s only 28 and he’s back in a hitter’s park.  If he goes 20/20 at 2nd base, you’ll be thanking me.  You’re welcome.

When I went over the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball, I mentioned that it was really shallow, but actually a bit deeper than the list of the top 20 shortstops for 2009 fantasy baseball.  Well, proof is in the pudding, so here’s the pudding.  We’ve already gone over quite a few top 20 lists already and they can be found in the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  Also, here’s a list of every player who has multiple position eligibility and our 2009 fantasy baseball player rater.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 shortstops for 2009 fantasy baseball:

1.  Hanley Ramirez – Already covered him in our top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball post.

2.  Jose Reyes – Already covered him in our top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball post.

3.  Jimmy Rollins – Already covered him in our top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball post.

4. Alexei Ramirez -  This is the next tier and it goes down to Furcal.  I call this tier, “Really? These are the top shortstops?”  Alexei may not be eligible in all leagues because of less than 20 games at shortstop.  Either way, I already covered him in our top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball.

4 1/2.  Stephen Drew -  Okay, when you see Stephen Drew at number four and a half overall for shortstops, you’re asking yourself if this is a vote for Drew or an indictment of the 2009 shortstops.  That’s a fair question and I’m glad you posed it.  What do you think?  A bit of both?  Wow, we are totally in sync.  Okay, what did I eat for lunch?  Nope, chicken burrito.  In 2009, Drew takes a step forward.  2009 Projections:  85/24/80/.280/7

5.  J.J. Hardy – Personally, I’d like to see Alcides Escobar get called up and I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens by the trade deadline in July with Hardy going to a contender.  Maybe to the Dodgers to replace an injured Furcal.  2009 Projections:  85/25/80/.275/3

6.  Jhonny Peralta – This Silent H comes in at sixth with the other Silent H coming at 18th.  The scary thing is there’s been years where they’ve flip-flopped in the rankings.  Peralta doesn’t come without some risk.  Be forewarned, fantasy baseballers!  2009 Projections:  85/25/90/.270/3

7.  Troy Tulowitzki – Let’s put Tulo’s 2008 season into a strait jacket and then submerge it into Houdini’s Milk Can.  2009 Projections:  65/20/85/.285/5

8.  Derek Jeter - After you choose Jeter in your 2009 draft, make sure you tell your wife so she can pat you on the head.  2009 Projections:  110/12/70/.305/12

9. Rafael Furcal – I already went over Furcal for 2009 when he returned to the Braves for a minute (not an Urbandictionary “minute,” which is actually a long time.) He’s going to be a steal for his draft position or he’s going to go kaboom like peanuts in abnormal lemonade.  2009 Projections:  95/15/65/.285/35 or 25/6/40/.390/7 and a seat next to Nomar on the DL.

10.  Michael Young – Here’s a new tier that goes from Young to Renteria.  I call this tier, “Boring.”  I say boring because their best years are behind them and, for a few of them, their best years weren’t even that good.   As for Michael Young, when I say empty, you say average.  “Empty…”  “Average…” I will say this in Young’s defense.  Look at his projections compared to Jeter.  Not that different, huh?  2009 Projections:  100/10/85/.310/10

11. Miguel Tejada – I want a new drug.  One that won’t spill… One that won’t let me hit .280 with 13 home runs and 66 RBIs… Or that comes in a pill… 2009 Projections:  90/15/75/.285/7

12. Orlando Cabrera -  Him and Renteria have similar power, speed, average and they want to kill each other.  2009 Projections:  90/7/65/.280/20

13. Edgar Renteria – Two enemies forever entwined in the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  2009 Projections:  80/9/70/.285/12

14. Yunel Escobar – This next tier is called, “What do you get when you mix nothing with the slightest bit of upside?”  This tier goes from here to the end of the list.  If you’re digging through the middle infielder bin at Filene’s Basement, you’re much better taking one of these schmohawks than one in the last tier.  These guys may not outperform them, but at least there’s a chance.  2009 Projections:  90/13/65/.300/3

15. Mike Aviles – Already covered him in our top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball.

16. Ryan Theriot – The Riot is actually not a bad late draft sleeper.  It’s nice to get 25 steals out of your MI spot and The Riot can potentially give you that.   2009 Projections:  90/2/40/.295/25

17. Yuniesky Betancourt – How does an outside chance at a 10/10 season sound to you?  Yawnstipating?  Yeah, me too.  2009 Projections:  65/10/65/.280/10

18. Khalil Greene – This H is silent, but deadly to your average.   2009 Projections:  65/20/80/.235/5

19. Emmanuel Burriss/Asdrubal Cabrera – Already covered them in our top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball.

20. Clint Barmes – Honestly, I could’ve put about ten different names here and they would have all been as uninspiring.  2009 Projections:  75/12/55/.270/12 (<–real optimistic)

After the top 20 shortstops for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but two stand out:

Elvis Andrus – Some would even call him a 2009 fantasy baseball sleeper.  Hey, wait a sec, I called him that!  If the Rangers get Vizquel, it hurts Andrus’s value, but, as I already said, Andrus probably wouldn’t be up for opening day anyway.  2009 Projections:  55/3/35/.250/20 in 50 games.

Jed Lowrie – “Hey, what’s that you just put into your back pocket?”  “Jed Lowrie.”  “Why?”  “I want an outside chance at a 10/5 season.”  Long pause.  “Oh.”  2009 Projections:  75/10/80/.260/5