Fantasy Baseball Advice

“Just because we share some organs doesn’t mean you can’t hit 2 two-run homers for each of us!”  Josh Hamilton had a night that makes you feel like you’re seven years old again.  You remember it.  When the birds chirped, it made you smile.  When your dad carried you on his shoulders, you were on top of the world.  When you peed the bed, no one tried to commit you to rehab.  People pinched your cheeks without you having to pay some stranger on Craigslist $75.  You’d throw a pebble into the lake without worrying if you hit someone in the head and blinded them if your insurance would cover it.  A time of joy.  Wonder.  No Splenda.  That’s what Josh Hamilton did for us last night.  And he also gave his stupid fantasy owners 4 friggin’ homers, going 5-for-5 with 4 runs and 8 RBIs.  Why don’t I have him on every team?!  I would not try and sell him high because if he stays healthy (it doesn’t have to be that remote of a chance, you cynical bastard), you have an MVP.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Adrian Beltre – 2-for-5 with a homer.  Pfft, wake me when you hit three more!

Scott Downs – Angels say Downs will be ready to return by Wednesday.  The Sciosciapath still considers him their closer.  Downs goes Frieri!  Downs goes Frieri!  Yeah, worked better when he was on the Blue Jays with Frasor.

Chris Sale – Last week, Ventura anointed Sale the closer.  So…he brought him into the 8th inning yesterday.  Plausible explanation:  He wanted his best reliever in a close game.  Also, plausible:  Sale is not the closer.  Also, plausible:  After all of those Nolan Ryan noogies, Robin Ventura doesn’t know how many innings there are in a game.  Addison Reed got the save with another perfect inning.  He could easily be the closer…Or Santiago…Or Sale.  It’s basically a closerf**k.

Dale Thayer – Literally, within five minutes of me dropping Cashner and picking up Thayer, he was blowing the game.  You still don’t believe The Closepocalypse is real?  He got lucky on a foul ball by Scutaro that was nearly a homer and another ball hit a baserunner.  I’m holding Thayer for now, but I wouldn’t be surprised if someone else closed the next Padres game.

Josh Thole – Mets placed him on the 7-day DL with a concussion.  Hey, I’m no doctor, but from what I’ve gleamed from five minutes of noodling around WebMD and watching how other players have reacted to concussions.  Are we sure the DL for concussions should be less time than the norm?

Jon Rauch – Got the save yesterday.  One small step for Rauch and one giant step for men over six-ten.  Francisco had worked the last three days, so this save for Rauch just shows the pecking order behind Francisco and some flashy neck tattoos.  “Yo, I’m gonna peacock my neck!”  That’s Rauch after reading up on pick-up artistry.

Dan Haren – 3 2/3 IP, 5 ER vs. the Twins?  This doubled the amount of runs the Twins scored in all previous games combined.  I don’t want to keep pointing out the same thing, but Rudy said in the preseason this would be the year Haren falls apart.  So far, Haren’s ERA is 4.19.

Scott Diamond – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks.  In the box score, it said S. Diamond and I thought Selma Diamond pitched 17 years after her death.  She had sass, but not that much, I guess.

Ryan Doumit – 1-for-3, 2 RBIs and his 4th homer.  I believe I said in the preseason that Doumit would be more valuable than Mauer this year.  And that’s me kinda paraphrasing me!

Albert Pujols – 0-for-4 to lower his average to .190.  This isn’t just bad for Albert; this stinks for all Pujolses.

David Robertson – Got the save yesterday as if there was any doubt.  I’d put his over/under for saves at 32.  Over/under for Ks at 110.  And over/under for times A-Rod checks out his package at 17.

Raul Ibanez – 2-for-3 with his 4th and 5th homers.  Seems like the Yankees have been benching him against lefties, which will hurt his overall numbers.  And being 40-something.  That’ll hurt those numbers too.

Andy Pettitte – Will start vs. the M’s on Sunday.  He’s been anything but outstanding during his tune up.  Bernie Williams, “Did someone say they want me to tune up the guitar?”  No, Bernie.  Against the M’s is a solid matchup, but unless things are really hard for you I wouldn’t Pettitte, even though it usually works the opposite way.

Randall Delgado – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  After his last start (8 IP, 2 ER), I said I’d watch him this start.  Well, I didn’t because I was doing the podcast that is coming later today with anutter special guest.  But the box score is telling me, you should pick up Delgado in all leagues deeper than 14 team mixed and possibly even shallower, depending on your starter shituation.  He’s only 22 years old and he could have a 9+ K-rate.  Yes, I basically love all Braves young pitchers, but they’re an easy group to love.

Ryan Dempster – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks.  He obviously should be owned everywhere.  His ERA won’t stay at 1.02, but he does get solid Ks and can have a mid-3 ERA.

Omar Infante – Hit his 6th homer yesterday.  Dah!  Just when Stanton finally passed him.

Anibal Sanchez – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 8 Ks to lower his ERA to 2.01.  Are we waiting until October to thank me for pushing everyone into drafting this guy?

Aneury Rodriguez – 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 baserunners, 6 Ks.  His minor league numbers are pretty blehtastic and if you pick him up he may give you an aneurysm.

Will Middlebrooks – Left yesterday’s game with hamstring tightness.  As of right now, Middlebrooks looks like he might miss a day or two.  This comes just hours after the Red Sox announced they were considering using Middlebrooks in the outfield.  They’re also considering just using Youkilis as a ticket taker at Gate E.

Daniel Bard – 7 IP, 5 ER, 10 baserunners, 1 K.  Outside of AL-Only leagues, I’m kinda surprised people still own him.

Yoenis Cespedes – Was a late scratch because of his wrist.  Sounds itchy!

Carlos Beltran – 2-for-4, 6 RBIs and two homers, or more homers in one game than Pujols has all year, and nearly more RBIs.  Beltran is The Great Zombino!

Ian Kennedy – 7 IP, 6 ER, 8 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Seriously, don’t mess with the 1927 Cardinals.

Carlos Marmol – Dale Sveum said Marmol may not get the job back.  But he has a 12+ walk rate, doesn’t that count for something?!  I could see dropping Marmol in most leagues.  He was dropped in my RCL and an NL-Only league and no one’s going near him.  I would grab Dolis or Russell, in that order.  (Or reverse order if you’re dyslexic.)

Miguel Tejada – The Orioles signed him.  It was part of a deal Dan Duquette made with the devil:  The Orioles can be in first place at the 1/6th point of the season, but then you must make transactions that make you look silly.

Yovani Gallardo – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks.  As I’ve been saying to people, Gallardo had a 6.23 ERA last April and you still drafted him this year as your top starter.  We’re in May now and he just threw a solid game vs. a tough hitting team.  By August, you will have forgotten he was miserable in April, and then by next April you’ll be frustrated again when he’s wretched.

Ryan Zimmerman – He returned from the DL to go 1-for-4 with a run.  Right back at, huh, Ryan?

Henry Rodriguez – 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  For a guy you got off of waivers, he’s still doing okay.  Don’t pull the rip cord on him yet.

A.J. Burnett – 8 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 10 Ks, which comes on the heels of a 2 2/3 IP, 12 ER outing.  You know what he’s doing, right?  Here, “Ooh, I’m gonna pick up Burnett.”  BAM, awful outing!  “Eff that in the eff hole, I’m dropping his ass.”  BOOM, good outing!  He’s totally messing with you.

Andrew McCutchen – 1-for-3 with his 1st homer.  The Dread Pirate finally makes his nickname about his hair again.

Francisco Cordero – 1/3 IP, 5 ER.  Move your small children and closers away from the windows!  The Closepocalypse is coming through!  Blue Jays might go to Jason Frasor for the next save chance, but, let’s just say, I didn’t run to the wire to pick him up.  Darren Oliver is another option, but, yeah, didn’t pick him up either.

Ryan Vogelsong – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 11 baserunners, 1 K as Vogelsong plays that sweet doctor’s office music I talked about last week.  Won’t excite you for good or bad, which is sometimes what you need.

Jarrod Parker – 7 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners, 3 Ks, ERA is at 1.80.  I’m being serious when I say this, but in any leagues of 12 team mixed or shallower, there’s no reason to have a team ERA over 3.50.

Josh Reddick – 1-for-3 with his 6th homer.  Think this is the first time I’ve mentioned him, or if you’re feeling punchy, it’s Reddick’s bow.  Hard for me to get fully behind A’s hitters, but he now has 4 homers in the last ten games.

J.J. Hardy – 2-for-4 with his 7th homer to raise his average to .244.  Meanwhile, Nick Markakis also homered, going 3-for-5 to raise his average to .246.  Member when Markakis was really good?  Makes you nostalgikis.

Alex Avila – Will miss at least two games with a sore patella.  My pharmacist’s name is Patella.  I don’t think they’re related.

Casey Blake – Retired yesterday.  In remembrance of Casey Blake, let’s not forget the time he painted a table to look like a soccer ball and Manny kicked it and missed a week with a sore toe.

First off, the story of Chris Capuano is just great.  Three years after getting seriously hurt, he was back in the big leagues in 2010, doing his thing.  But I’m not giving him the Greydar pub because he is a great story, it’s because he’s so cheap.  No, not like splits the tab with you on a first date and makes you pay more fare for the taxi because you live farther away cheap.  I’m talking about going behind Miguel Tejada according to Mock Draft Central and being the 97th pitcher off the board according to Fleaflicker cheap.

If you’re interested in surface stats, this post isn’t for you.  Capuano had a 4.55 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP last year.  Blech.  Move on and go read about how great of a control pitcher Philip Humber is and forget it.  Alright, now that we’ve rid ourselves of the non-believers let’s scratch and sniff the surface.  Why did I mention Humber?  They’re going in about the same spot in the draft according to fleaflicker, with Humber having a slight edge.  He had a 3.75 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP last year.  Yeah that’s a decent ERA and a useful WHIP but he had a 6.40 K/9 last year.  I just drooled but not out of excitement.  I fell asleep.  The puddle is in the shape of Doug Fister.  Same shizz, different team but more expensive than both.  Now could someone please clean this up?

Alright, let’s get statistical.  Don’t blink, it goes by really fast:  3.61, 3.86, 3.67.  Confused?  Yeah, probably cuz I didn’t tell you what those numbers were.  Those were the xFIPs for Fister, Humber & Capuano, respectively, in 2011.  The difference is Fister overperformed, Humber’s ERA was in line and Capuano underperformed his.  All luck being equal, the only thing Humber & Fister can provide you is WHIP help while Capuano is going to provide you with a 7.5K/9 base with room for upside.   Realize C-Cap (it’s my nickname for him…that I just made up…just go with it) also exhibited a K:BB rate of 3.17 last year, so he’s not a pitcher that goes all depressed teenager and hurts himself.  With a little better luck, you’re finding 150K over 180 innings and a 3.75 ERA.  It may come with a 1.30 WHIP, but you can take that from a $1 pitcher.  It’s like you just found a limited edition Yoshi-themed Wii in the Walmart bargain bin right next to all those Green Lantern DVDs.  Superlatives!  If you are targeting Jonathan Sanchez late in your draft, there’s no reason not to draw a bull’s eye on Capuano as well.  Sometimes it pays to be frugal.

Ryan Madson went to the DL with numbness in his pitching hand.  Hello, bullpen?  Is there anybody in there?  Just nod if you can hear me.  Brad Lidge is due back in a few weeks.  AHHHHH!  Now you feel a little sick.  Antonio Bastardo would be the immediate add for vulture saves.  That’ll keep you going through the show.  Come on, it’s time to go.  But that Bastardo is a lefty, so Michael Stutes could get some saves.  Your lips move but I can’t hear what you’re saying.  Michael Stutes could get some saves.  Your lips move but I can’t hear what you’re saying.  Michael Stutes– Your lips move but I can’t hear what you’re saying.  Forget it, I’d grab Bastardo if I were in desperate need for saves.  Unless you have become comfortably numb.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brett Cecil – The man who sounds like a 70′s Playboy pinup has returned from Triple-A.  During the preseason, I put Cecil in a tier of starters called, “There’s some upside here, but I wouldn’t expect anything,” and said more or less that Cecil was once considered better than Romero.  There’s signs of a terrific K-rate in the minors, the Jays have watched his innings well and he cut his walk rate last year.  Great, wonderful, fantastic!  Unfortunately, he’s still in the AL East, his K-rate last year was terrible and he was hideous in April this year.  And that’s me copying, pasting, liberally quoting and adding addendums to me!

Shin-Soo Choo – As I reported here on Monday after inferring shizz from other sites, Choo’s out until September, having surgery on his thumb.  I’d lose him in redraft leagues where you don’t have DL room.  What a waste of a draft pick.  Ah, Choo… Bless you.

Doug Davis – 4 1/3 IP, 10 ER.  The Cubs should reduce their DD.  It’s just sloppy.

Starlin Castro – 1-for-9 for the doubleheader.  For when someone does terrible on both sides of a doubleheader, it sounds like we need an alternate glossary definition for a player dropping a deuce.

Ryan Vogelsong – 5 IP, 3 ER, 10 baserunners, 6 Ks.  He’s totally charmed right now.  He actually gets hit in this game as he should be and the Giants score the most runs they have all year. (This wasn’t fact checked, but it’s probably accurate.)

Miguel Tejada – 3-for-6 with a home run.  They must have some great B-12 in Chicago.

Cliff Lee – 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 5 Ks.  About a month ago, we almost pulled the trigger on a trade of Heath Bell and Pence for Cliff Lee.  With Pence’s injury and Bell about to be traded, could see that being one that we Mr. Bungled.

Jonathan Broxton – Will be out for at least a month and a half.  Mattingly said he’d consider it a bonus if Broxton pitched again this year.  Doesn’t a bonus come on top of something good?  Where is Strunk & White to let them know it’s not correct grammar to say something like, “My best friend is sleeping with my wife, but I’d consider it a bonus if he used a condom.”

Javy Guerra – He’s the guy to own in the Dodgers bullpen. (For that one save opportunity every month or so.)

Ted Lilly – 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  Last time out, I said he was unstartable, but then I saw he was facing the Twins in the Hubert H. Homerfree Retrodome and I decided to give it a whirl.  Now, Lilly and I are done.  Lose my number.  Wait, he gets the Mets next time out.  Why can’t I quit you?!

Nick Swisher – 2-for-4 with his third home run in the last 5 games.  Looks like Swisher is finally playing as hot as those sideburns make him look.  Wait, what?  Umm… Awkward… Umm… Yeah, I’d grab Swisher.  In fantasy!  Um, leagues.

Eduardo Nunez – 1-for-3 with 2 steals.  That’s nice, but he’s not long for a starting job.  Pasta Diving is up and running.

Vernon Wells – 4-for-5 and his 10th home run.  Told you last week to grab him, then again on Monday.  Don’t make me keep talking about Vernon Wells.  Please.

J.J. Hardy – 1-for-4 and his 4th home run in the last 10 games while batting near .350 in the last week.  I wish I knew how to repay him other than sending him a giant cake that I’m gonna jump out of in my birthday suit.  And to think baseball players don’t like fantasy baseball nerds.  Pfft!

Zack Greinke – 2 IP, 7 ER vs. Yankees for the Bronx cheer.

Josh Johnson – Headed to see his old friend Dr. Freeze because his shoulder’s not 100%.  Hundred percent called and said it’s never heard of Josh Johnson’s shoulder.

Josh Beckett – 6 IP, 5 ER, 6 baserunners, 1 K.  A’la Nelson Muntz, “HA HA!”

Edwin Encarnacion – 2-for-4 with 2 home runs.  Now has three home runs in his last three games.  He won’t dazzle your retinas for long periods of time, but he does look like he’s hot.  Get on board!

Kyle Lohse – 5 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 2 Ks.  His K-rate is under 5… C’mon.  Seriously.  That’s ridiculous.

Colby Rasmus – 1-for-3 with a home run.  Now has two homers in the last four games and a hit in each of his last five.  It ain’t Rasmus burning on the dance floor, but it’s a start.  Geiger, let’s go!

Jose Reyes – 4-for-4 and his 29th steal, hitting .349 on the year.  Haven’t talked much about Reyes this year because every time I look at him I think about how I wished I owned him on every team and it annoys me.

Jason Bay – Him and Beltran hit grand slams in consecutive innings.  Only took three years but the Mets team is really starting to come together.  Too bad they’re about to dismantle them.

Wily Mo Pena – 1-for-1 with a pinch hit home run.  All Wily Mo does is hit homers!  No, really, that’s all he does.

J.J. Putz – Gave up a run on Monday and two runs on Tuesday to blow the save.  His ERA is up to 3.12 after starting the month at 1.57.  Putz’s blown (hehe) four games this month.  I’d grab David Hernandez where you’re desperate for saves.

Chase D’Arnaud – 0-for-4 with a steal.  He’s now started three games in a row at 3rd base for the Pirates. In the minors, he stole 33 of 40 last year and 17 of 20 this year.  He can’t do much but steal, but maybe he’ll try and prove his worth and, ya know, steal.  In deeper leagues, I could see taking the SAGNOF flyer.

Kevin Correia – 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 baserunners, 3 Ks and his 10th win.  Of course he has ten wins.  Why wouldn’t he?!  It’s Kevin Correia on the Pittsburgh Pirates!  I hate wins.

Alex Presley – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs and his first home run.  Will see significant time with Tabata to the DL for at least three weeks.  Yes, you should pick up Presley.  Now if only Fleer still did those novelty cards like Black & Blue with Bud Black and Vida Blue, so we could have an Elvis (Andrus) & (Alex) Presley card.  Or Fister-Moore.

Johnny Damon – Went 4-for-6 on Sunday and 2-for-4 with a home run yesterday.  Hard for me to give you much enthusiasm for him, so let’s just say he’s seeing the ball well and move on.

Tommy Hanson – 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 baserunners, 8 Ks.  He wasn’t quite vintage Hommy, but it’s good to have him back.  (Even though I don’t own him…Why again didn’t I draft him?  Dah!)

Ichiro Suzuki – Hit his first home run of the year as he bats almost fifty points below his career average.  Wow, he got old fast.  He might be 52 years old.  See, I have this theory that all Asians look young up until 51 years old, then when they turn 52, they look ancient.  It’s the Law of Pat Morita.  Morita was young looking on Happy Days and under the age of 52.  Then Morita turned 52 years old, was in The Karate Kid and looked ancient.

Gio Gonzalez – 8 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 3 Walks, 9 Ks.  The Gio Grande is obviously no place for Marlins.

Rich Harden – Will be activated on Friday (and DL’d on Saturday).  I wouldn’t bother with him.  He hasn’t pitched more than 4 2/3 IP in any game so far in his rehab, which is hilarious to me.  “Just keep him healthy long enough for me to trade him.”  That’s Brad Pitt playing the part of Billy Beane.  Making room for Harden, Graham Godfrey is moving to the bullpen to the dismay of all the pitchers out there who can’t stand his loud, piercing voice and his penchant for roasting other pitchers.  “People think Brian Fuentes is a bad guy because he bad-mouthed Bob Geren.  They are incorrect.  He’s a bad man because he KILLED A MEXICAN IN A COLORADO SLAUGHTERHOUSE.  WITH HIS OWN HANDS.  HE DIDN’T EVEN USE THE MEAT GRINDER.  YOU EXPECT THAT FROM A KRAUT LIKE MICHAEL WUERTZ.  BUT IT WAS FUENTES.  AGAINST ONE OF HIS OWN PEOPLE!”  That’s Graham Godfrey.

The top 20 shortstops for 2011 fantasy baseball are a shallow bowl of dung and ranked only ahead of the catchers for depth.  All the 2011 fantasy baseball rankings can be found under that thing that says 2011 fantasy baseball rankings.  (Don’t worry, one of my New Year’s Resolutions is to link to things a little more seamlessly).  Shortstops usually get the short end of the stick when I’m drafting.  If I don’t get Hanley, I’ll probably just take a flier on some late round player.  Yes, I don’t even really want to mess with Tulo.  In leagues that play a middle infielder, then you might need two of these schmohawks.  Hopefully, you can grab two decent 2nd basemen and only need one of these guys.  As with the other top 20 rankings, I point out where I think tiers start and stop and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 shortstops for 2011 fantasy baseball:

1. Hanley Ramirez – In the top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball post is Hanley’s projections.

2. Troy Tulowitzki – In the top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball post is Tulowitzki’s projections.

3. Jose Reyes – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Andrus.  I call this tier, “These are the last two shortstops you should draft for about eight rounds.”  I would not under any circumstances draft a shortstop between Andrus and Desmond unless they fall about six rounds after where I think they should be drafted.  As for Reyes, for those thinking Reyes had a poor 2010, consider he was the 3rd best shortstop on ESPN’s Player Rater.  Sure, that has its flaws, but who was better?  Jeter?  Alexei?  Elvis?  Reyes hit 11 homers and stole 30 bases last year.  Not to mention it was in only 133 games so if you filled him in halfway decently from your waiver wire, you had additional stats from his spot.  2011 Projections:  110/12/60/.290/40

4. Elvis Andrus – I already went over my Elvis Andrus fantasy for next year.  At 22 years old, he might be still come in under my projections, but he’s capable of a huge fantasy-defining season.  I’m willing to take the chance that it happens.  2011 Projections:  95/5/50/.270/45

5. Jimmy Rollins – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Furcal.  I call this tier, “Holy crap, the shortstops are really shallow.”  Seriously, Rollins is the 5th best shortstop?  Rollins has been getting progressively worse the last three seasons and I don’t think he’s suddenly going to turn things around at the age of 32.  Yeah, you really should punt at this point.  Look at Drew or others later on.  A few things on Rollins.  In 2006, Rollins had 15 infield hits.  That number has gone down every year.  His line drive rates have fallen every year since 2008.  His ground ball rate last year was a new career high.  His speed was at an all-time low last year for his career.  You know what happens when a guy gets older and hits the ball on the ground?  He gets thrown out at first.   2011 Projections:  85/14/65/.260/20

6. Derek Jeter – So I’ve been watching the first season of Friday Night Lights.  Great show.  I’d say SPOILER ALERT! but the show’s like seven years old.  Anyway, when Riggins was stealing Minka from Street, I kept imagining Street yelling, “So, Jeter, it’s okay to steal a cripple’s girlfriend, but you won’t fight a cripple?!”  Maybe it’s just me.  As for Jeter — eh, you know what you’re getting by this point.  Light power, some steals, good runs.  Plus, you can tell your lady friend that you drafted Jeter and watch how much tail you get.  Unless you live in Boston.  Then put on the Nomar jersey.  “I’m dating Charlene, Ma.  You gotta get used to it.”  I love Mark Wahlberg.  2011 Projections:  105/12/65/.280/15

7. Alexei Ramirez – Here’s one of those borderline guys.  If he hits 17-20 homers and steals 15 bases, you’re okay.  Shave just a few off either and you have a 15/12 guy, i.e., a guy that steals 2 bases and hits less than 3 homers per month.  That grows boring really fast during the course of the season.  I don’t mind trading for Alexei on May 1st, but his first month makes his overall stats look just a’ight.  BTW, we should have a glossary term for Latin players who don’t play well in the cold weather months.  2011 Projections:  80/17/70/.280/14

8. Rafael Furcal – Last year in only 97 games, he went 8/22, but I wouldn’t prorate that over a full season.  Seems to actually play better when he plays an abbreviated season.  Maybe because he’s 33 years old.  If you’re in a shallow enough league where you can readily replace him when he’s hurt, I’d consider drafting him.  In most leagues, I wouldn’t bother.  2011 Projections:  75/8/45/.280/17

9. Stephen Drew – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Escobar.  I call this tier, “Okay, grab one quick because they get ugly again real fast.”  (Note:  All projections in this tier are optimistic, but whatevs.)  Feels like we’ve been waiting forever for Drew’s big breakout.  At 28 years old in 2011, this is the year.  Or so my gut is telling me.  He had a solid 2nd half — 11 homers, .281 in 267 ABs and that’s about as much positivity I can muster.  He has so many major league ABs, he shouldn’t just explode for an incredible year, but I can’t help think he’s due.  Hey, I said it was a gut call more than anything.  His 2011 won’t be MVP-worthy, but it could be valuable and at shortstop you gotta take some upside fliers.  2011 Projections:  90/24/70/.275/7

10. Ian Desmond – Could be a cheap version of Alexei Ramirez.  I know, that sounds about as enticing as walking in on your grandparents having sex.  But if Desmond exceeds expectations and Alexei falls just short and if and but’s were dollar bills I’d be a millionaire.  Okay, Desmond’s an upside flier, just go with it.  2011 Projections:  80/15/70/.280/20

11. Alcides Escobar – I already hit you up with an Alcides Escobar fantasy sleeper thing-a-woozie.  2011 Projections:  70/3/40/.275/30

12.  Starlin Castro – This is a new tier.  This tier goes until Tejada.  I call this tier, “And they just got ugly again.”  I almost put Castro in the above tier, because he does have yute on his side.  In the end, I’m too worried Castro may get drafted as if he has this huge upside.  I’d lower my expectations with him.  He gets caught stealing way too much and he doesn’t have great power.  2011 Projections:  75/5/55/.305/12

13. Ryan Theriot – Wanna know the problem with the state of shortstops?  How about this:  Theriot was ranked 18th for 2nd basemen.  That about covers it.  Went over Theriot’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball post.

14. Cliff Pennington – What a butt ugly group we have here.  Pennington is basically Theriot with a few more steals and homers and a potentially terrible average.  Also, he looks good in plaid pants, if that’s a category in your league.  2011 Projections:  60/5/40/.245/30

14 1/2. Mike Aviles – Went over Aviles’ projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball post.  (Note:  Only has 13 games at shortstop so he got a half.)

15. Juan Uribe – Went over Juan Uribe’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.

16. Jhonny Peralta – Member the days when Jhonny and Khalil Greene would go around putting silent H’s in people’s names?  Charlos Lee got so mad!  Ah, yes, and I have nothing to say about Jhonny Peralta.  2011 Projections:  65/17/80/.255

17. Jason Bartlett – Went over my Bartlett fantasy when the Padres got him.  Go there to read the Bartlett blurb.  Or Blurblett, if you’re into portmanteaus.  2011 Projections:  80/5/55/.270/17

18. Yunel Escobar – Um… Well… Uh… Wait, why is he being ranked?  Oh, because he basically has the same projections as Mike Aviles.  Yeah, shortstops are bad this year.  Have I mentioned that before?  2011 Projections:  75/10/60/.290/7

19. Omar Infante – Infante’s 2010 reminds me of Zobrist’s 2009 on a much smaller scale.  Utility man makes good, news at 11.  I’m gonna move on before I bore us both any further.  2011 Projections:  65/5/40/.280/8 ( Note: Only has 19 games at shortstop.)

20. Miguel Tejada -  Somewhere Sabean is twirling his mustache thinking about how much he’d love to sign Bartlett in three years.  My Tejada projections are assuming he won’t start shooting up again.  2011 Projections:  65/13/75/.275/3

After the top 20 shortstops for 2011 fantasy baseball, there’s a bunch of names, but here’s two that stand out:

Reid Brignac – I just couldn’t end the top 20 shortstops with Miguel Tejada.  The Rays have to play Brignac, right?  I mean, they can’t let him just keep getting older and not give him a fair shake, can they?  Yeah, I don’t know.  If they give Brignac an everyday job, his fantasy value will drop him around 10th on this list.  Since it’s the shortstops, I’d throw a flier Brignac’s way with or without a job and hope you get lucky and he starts.  2011 Projections:  60/15/75/75/.260/7

Asdrubal Cabrera – Consider Asdrubal above Starlin Castro on this list, but I wanted to highlight him.  Gotta throw out 2010 with Asdrubal.  He got injured, can’t hold his bad year against him. Plus, a bad year is so amorphous, how are you gonna hold that against anyone?  At 25 years old, Asdrubal is still in his prime and can put together a decent season for a MIF — Middle Infielder Flier.  2011 Projections:  80/7/60/.295/20

The Padres finally put their offense on the offensive.  Only here the offensive definition is “causing anger, displeasure or resentment.”  Thanks, Merriam-Webster!  Adrian Gonzalez gets a small boost in value, if ‘small’ meant ‘could there be a better place for him to play?’  You don’t have to be a rocket scientist who gave up his job at JPL to study baseball stats to see the difference between Petco and Fenway.  In Fenway, there’s a giant freakin’ wall 310 feet down the line.  In Petco, there’s a memorial park in left field with a giant Nate Colbert statue that no one’s ever reached.  Wait, that was Kyle Blanks.  Last year, Fenway was 7th for most offense.  Petco was 26th.  I think A-Gon’s Home/Away splits over the last three years say all you need to know.  In 832 home ABs, 112/37/127/.257.  In 927 away ABs, 168/70/192/.310.  Yes, A-Gon can win the MVP in Boston.  I’m not going to belabor (any further) this point.  It’s a huge boon for A-Gon’s value if boon means what I think it does.  Youuuuk gets a small boost in value too now that he’ll be playing 3rd base, eligibility he was about to lose going into 2011.  Anyway, here’s some more recent moves and what they mean for fantasy baseball:

Casey Kelly – The prized piece in the A-Gon trade.  Stephen already went over his Casey Kelly fantasy.  Now that he gets to (eventually) pitch in Petco, his value bumps up, but he still looks at least a year away, if not more.  There’s probably at least three dozen prospects worth looking at before him in dynasty leagues.  There’s a few pitchers in the Padres system alone that are more interesting, in the short term at least.

Kyle Blanks – Looks to be the replacement for Adrian Gonzalez at 1st base and in the lineup, but he “won’t be ready until well after the season starts,” according to the Padres.  When he does return, Blanks could add some power for deep leagues, but his average will be less impressive.  Unless Blanks goes to the plate with David Eckstein in a Baby Bjorn and he tells him what to swing at.

Adam Dunn – Takes his blue ox and heads to the South Side of Chicago.  In related news, the White Sox equipment manager was seen surfing the web for ways to reinforce a wooden bench.  “I’ll tell you what, sonny.  This eHow is the bomb dot com!”  That’s what he said.  Last year, U.S. Cellular Field produced more “You can put it on the board”s than any other stadium.  Wasn’t far off in 2009 and 2008.  Whereas Nationals Park was either average or below average for home runs.  I was going to give Dunn 38 home runs for 2011, this gets him to 40 again.  Don’t think he suddenly becomes a 45-homer guy though.  I mean, he was consistently a 40-homer guy in Great American and that’s a hitter-friendly environment.

Jayson Werth – Signed with the Nats.  Citizens Flank is obviously better for Werth than The House of Strasburg.  Hitting in a lineup with Utley, Howard and Rollins is better than Zimmerman and that guy who plays 1st and that other guy that plays in the outfield.  He has hit well in Nationals Park, he was also facing Nationals pitching.  I was worried Werth would go somewhere to hurt his value and he didn’t disappoint me, which is to say he did.  Zimmerman had 68 runs last year batting third.  Werth had 99 runs batting 5th.  Who’s knocking in Werth in 2011?  Shave some home runs, RBIs, a bunch of runs, some average… Shoot, if he hits 25 home runs and a .275 average with weak runs, I’d be impressed.  Oh, and from a real baseball perspective?  7 years?!

Aaron Harang – Me on December 2nd, “I wouldn’t own Harang in any league unless he pitched in Petco.”  Me on December 3rd, “Score one for the Hodgepadres!”

Jason Varitek – Nooooooo!  Didn’t I just say Saltymochachino was a sleeper?  Why would you sign Varitek?  Ugh.  The good news is Varitek is far from an everyday catcher at this stage in his career, so if Salty can hit his weight on Jupiter than he should see the majority of the ABs.

Hisanori Takahashi – Signed by the Angels.  There’s some rumblings that he’ll be the closer down in Bobby Grichville.  Yeah, you ever see the Sciosciapath make things easy?  Until I hear different from the Los Angeles Suburb of Los Angeles, Rodney will be in the running for saves.

Bobby Jenks – Out as the White Sox closer because the equipment manager can only reinforce so much.  “I’m only one man!”  That’s him again.  Right now, the White Sox closer role is an open audition.  Maybe they can invite Eric Roberts.  He’s always super believable.  Thornton, Santos and Sale are a few possibilities.  In that order.

Ryan Theriot – Heads to the Cardinals.  And I have nothing interesting to say about this.  He’s a 3 homer, 20 steal guy.  If that gives you an erection for longer than ten minutes, you might want to seek out a doctor.

Miguel Tejada – Here’s the by product of Sabean winning a World Series.  He thinks he knows what he’s doing.

Jose Lopez – Damn you, Rockies!  I already wrote a stupid Eric Young Jr. sleeper post.  I’m probably going to still post it.  Or maybe I’ll hold it like I did the Chris Iannetta sleeper post from last year.  Expect that any day now, unless the Rockies sign a different catcher, which they’re wont to do.  They’re wont!  Lopez will probably steal time from Young and Ian Stewart.  Hopefully, he steals more time from Stewart.  Or we can hope Lopez gets hurt in Spring Training.

Shaun Marcum – Blue Kays traded him to the Brewers.  Or, “Zoinks!”  Maybe they thought the Brewers had Greinke.  Beats me.  Either way, Marcum really is getting a sleeper post.  Love this move for his fantasy value.  I really love this move because it came at a time when everyone was ooh’ing and ah’ing over A-Gon so the average fantasy person isn’t going to make much notice of it.  Good stuff all around.  He was a 7.60 K/9 last year in the AL East.  In the NL Central, he can easily go over 8 K/9.  His walks were a minuscule 1.98 per 9.  His xFIP was below 4.  You’re suddenly looking at a fantasy number two starter next year with the chance for more.  All aboard!  Next stop, fantasy value-ville.

Brett Lawrie – Going the other way to socialized medicine is Lawrie.  Stephen went over his Brett Lawrie fantasy already.  Could develop into a 20 homer hitter in the majors and has shown speed already.  He looks like he can be something special and will definitely be on radars for September call-ups in 2011.  I don’t think he breaks camp with the club.

Lance Berkman – Welcome to St. Louis, Guy Who Looks Like He Could Be the Host of Man vs. Food’s Father.  Against righties he should bat between Pujols and Holliday and, well, that’s about all the positives I have for you.  Not to mention, I’m not sure how much of a positive that is since it wasn’t like he became a beast like Tre from Top Chef:  All Stars after he started batting in the Yankee lineup.  Last year, his fly balls went down (literally!), ground balls went up (not literally!), his HR/FB last year was off his career average, but I’m not sure we should expect a huge bounce back.  To quote Cliff’s uncle, Frank Lee, “His skills are declining.”