Let’s start with an SAT question as old as this world that we call Planet Earth, assuming the SATs were around thousands of years ago when man was staying warm by humping a Buysellatops until they were feeling bi and sore. Which number doesn’t belong: A) 21.4% B) 21.7% C) There’s no C. D) 5.7%. If you answered C, I hope your folks are rich so you can get into an accredited college. Just think, after you graduate you can put Harvard on your resume just like everyone else new to the workforce. If you answered A because it’s the only even number, you’re overthinking; odds and evens is something you can forget after elementary school unless you plan on working the roulette table. If you answered B, because it’s the only B, at least you can get your pants on in the morning. They are on backwards though. If you answered D, you’re right. Those are Matt Kemp‘s last three years of homers per fly ball. 5.7% is silly bad. Last year that would’ve put him in the company of Alexei Ramirez and Michael Young. If there was no offseason shoulder surgery for Matt Kemp, that number alone would mean Kemp is a huge buy low. Of course, there was the surgery and his home run distance is down. He’s not driving the ball as far as he has in previous years. So, as I said in this week’s fantasy baseball podcast, I’m buying Kemp for the first time in about two years. I’m only buying him because his value is so low. I’m not buying him for 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th, 5th round talent. I’d want a discount, but I’d still buy. Look at a guy like Justin Upton last year. He was nursing an injury, then hit 9 homers in the last six weeks of the season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kemp do something similar. He could easily regain some strength as the season progresses and hit 17-20 homers in the final two months with 15 steals. He’s still a risky play because of the injuries, but for the right price, I’m buying. Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Yasiel Puig‘s been lighting up the mainframe on the giant computer out of a bad 1950′s sci-fi movie, but he’s not the only Cuban. Leonys Martin also hails from our neighbor to the south that took up residence in Miami. Last night, he hit two homers, is hitting .417 in the last week and has a hit in each of his last ten games with 4 steals during that time. It’s the year of the Cubans, y’all! In all of their pressed hammy, mustardy, cheesy, pickley goodness. Side note: Do pickles seem like something Cubans would put in their food? Maybe Hyman Roth, but he’s not really Cuban or real, for that matter. Somewhere, ex-Cuban pitcher, El Duque, has a little extra hop in his exaggerated leg-kick that he still does, only now he does it before he cleans up tables at Chipotle. “You’re not going to finish your guac?” *leg kick* Leonys Martin should be owned in all leagues while he’s going well, and is the type of player that could have value all year if you’re patient since he could hit 12-15 homers and get 25-ish steals. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
The love has been sucked out of the room for Justin Upton. His fantasy value went skydiving. After it went Rocky Mountain climbing. He went from totally chic to totally geek in 2.7 seconds on the back of a bull named “You, Man, Are Phooey.” (Where I grew up bulls had thoroughbred-like horse names.) If we can all remember back to April, with her freckles– Oh, wait, was thinking of the wrong April. I meant the month. *embarrassed Lisa Simpson giggle* In April, Upton look the world by the nuts and put a roof over every homeless person’s head. Turned out that those roofs were just sheets of matzoh and they got soggy during a rain-out in May. May you’re supposed to bring flowers! Upton’s HR/FB in April wasn’t maintainable (38.7%) and his badonkadonks flattened. He’s also not a 1 homer per month guy. On our last 30-day Player Rater, he has a -$7 value. That’s the same as Sugar Shane Robinson and Pedro Flori-none and Lyle Overbite. That’s not even near Upton’s value. His owners are panicked. Was Upton a one month guy? If he’s healthy, he’s not. He’s just slumping. This is a guy that regularly touched .800 OPS and is now barely cracking .550. I see no reason why he can’t be a 5-homer, .280 hitter every month for the rest of the year with a handful of steals. If someone has him and is sick from his roller coaster ride, I’d strap myself in sans barf bag and trade for him. Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Yasiel Puig was scratched yesterday with a strained shoulder, suffering the injury during batting practice. Look at him, making himself feel right at home with the Dodgers. Next thing you know, he’s going to say Brandon League is their best reliever, run at 40% and leave before the eighth inning to beat the traffic. Let’s recap quickly, Puig took a fastball off his nose, wiped blood from his face and took first base. Then The Cuban did an interpretative dance with Kennedy’s whole team that he called “The Bay of Puig.” Finally, the next day, he hurts himself in batting practice. It’s like when Jean-Claude Van Damme beat the crap out of 47 bad guys, but stopped production on Timecop because the production assistant forget to bring his hair gel to set. “Van Damme be Van Damned if his hair isn’t coifed.” As of right now, there’s no word on how long Puig will be out, but hopefully this Puiggy doesn’t go wee, wee, wee all the way home. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
You ask and you shall receive! I had numerous requests for a Jeff Samardzija Pitcher Profile, and since I’d only seen the fire-baller throw maybe once or twice against my Brewers, I thought it would be a great idea to break him down for Razzball Nation.
I know the big righty features a huge fastball that flirts with the upper 90′s, but off the top of my head I couldn’t remember any specific secondary pitches so I was excited to really analyze one of his starts. Remember when he was the top WR target for Brady Quinn? Seems like ages ago! Remember when he was an erratic fixture in that Cubs bullpen along with Carlos Marmol? I bet some of those innings made even Steve Bartman cringe. But it’s much further down the road with Samardzija a fixture in that rotation (along with your fantasy squad’s staff) and a piece of the Cubs’ rebuilding future. Let’s go through how he hurled against the Diamondbacks on Saturday:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Each week I’ll be looking at some favorable match-ups to help you grab a few extra steals for your fantasy team. Whether you are in a weekly or daily league, looking at weak defensive catchers and strong/aggressive base running teams may help you make decisions as to which players you should start or sit in your hunt for an edge in the stolen base category. Since the 2013 season is only a week old, I’ll use some data from 2012 to get started and give you an idea of what we will be looking for. Just realize that these are only two dimensions that can affect stolen base totals.Please, blog, may I have some more?
I just went over the top 10 for 2013 fantasy baseball and the top 20 for 2013 fantasy baseball. Most of you know how I feel about catchers. If you draft a catcher any time before the first 100 picks, you don’t know how I feel about catchers. Let me freshen up your cocktail with a splash of insight. I don’t draft top catchers in one catcher leagues. I Reggie Roby them. Molina, Pierzynski, Wilin Rosario were all in the top 5 for catchers last year. Their average draft pick was around 250 overall last year. The bottom of the top 20 for last year consisted of Napoli, McCann and Jesus Montero. Their average draft slot was around 70. It’s like this every year. In 2011, Napoli and Avila were ranked second and third at the end of the year with Wieters and Posey disappointing, going into the year it was nothing like that. Catchers are unreliable to stay healthy; the job is grueling and takes its toll on offensive stats. Then, there’s not much difference between, say, the fifth best catcher and nothingness. Wilin Rosario was the fifth best catcher last year. As late as July of last year, he could’ve been picked up off waivers in some leagues. Finally, the best catcher last year and the NL MVP was the 27th best player according to our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater. That’s the best year you can hope from him and he was still only ranked 27th overall. You’re paying a premium for a catcher, who would be the 8th best outfielder. The third best 2nd baseman. The fifth best first baseman. The fifth best 3rd baseman. Only shortstops were worst, and I say punt them too. Yes, I am saying punt the positions that are most scarce. Because I ignore the top catchers doesn’t mean I’m starting the top 20 catcher list at number twenty-two (John Jaso? Belch.); some of you might want to know the top catchers. You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make them draft Alex Avila. In two catcher leagues, catchers are a little more valuable, but I’d still prefer to avoid them. You can see other top 20 lists for 2013 fantasy baseball under 2013 fantasy baseball rankings. Listed along with these catchers are my 2013 projections for each player and where the tiers begin and end. Anyway, here’s the top 20 catchers for 2013 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Here is a look at the value of catchers over the past season in OPS fantasy leagues. This is not meant to be a ranking so much as adding a lens to illustrate their relative value with OPS as a component.Please, blog, may I have some more?
It feels like yesterday the baseball regular season started. You wrote “I heart baseball” in permanent marker on your arm, then you met a girl who wrote “I heart guys who heart baseball” on her arm, then, during sex in September, you screamed out “I love you, Chris Davis!” and now you don’t have baseball or a girlfriend, unless your girlfriend was Bill James. C’mon, calendar, make like a soldier and turn to March. The only cure for the post-baseball season blues — recapping the preseason top twenty lists and being hand-fed Doritos. First up, Cool Ranch and our preseason Top 20 Catchers for 2012. It’s important to look back before we look ahead to 2013.Please, blog, may I have some more?
You walking out of your H2H draft, “I might have overspent on Tulo but, as long as I have him in September, I’m fine. Now where are those cigars I’ve been saving for the birth of my firstborn? I need a stogie up in here!” You might’ve just got your wish.Please, blog, may I have some more?