Fantasy Baseball Advice

With half the 2008 fantasy baseball season in the books, it’s time to take a look back at how fantasy baseball and the world has changed in the last three months. When the fantasy baseball season started…

…Branded the Latin Sandy Koufax, the New York Media fit Johan for a yarmulke.

…Mike Myers was still considered funny.

…I had 2 Facebook friends. I’m up to 3.

…The Cubs had their expectations in check.

…Tomatoes were safe to eat.

…Nick Cannon and Mariah Carey weren’t dating yet.

…Deer meat vs. Clint Barmes was still decidedly in deer meat’s favor.

…Everyone thought the Marlins, the A’s and the Nats would be bad. (Only the Nats didn’t disappoint. Oh, wait, does that mean they did disappoint??? Ugh, brain freeze!)

…Everyone thought the Tigers would win over a 100 games and challenge every offensive record while being led by Miguel Cabrera, who some thought should be handed the MVP trophy in the preseason.

…In related news, Jim Leyland was smoking only two packs a day.

…A gallon of gas was $3.77.

…Edinson Volquez for Josh Hamilton was a trade that bored you at worst, and yawnstipated you at best.

…I had no idea what Turducken was.

…I had a full roll of toilet paper.

…If I told you Grady Sizemore was on pace for 40/40, you’d tell me that was one of the top stories of the year thus far.

…There was hope that the new Indiana Jones movie wouldn’t be a disappointment that was obviously made by two out-of-touch filmmakers that long ago sold their soul for plush toys.

…My use of Cust kayin’ wasn’t stale.

…Eugenio Velez was on three of my teams.

…I had Carlos Ruiz on seven of my teams.

…Jon Rauch was a setup man.

…I hadn’t yet figured out what I was going to be for Halloween. Now I know — I think I might be beat.

…Curtis Granderson was injured, but no one seemed fazed. Pujols was injured and everyone ran the other way.

…George Carlin was still cursing.

…I had an idea to market a Sunday, after-church drink called Blood of Christ-tinis.

There’s probably more relevant fantasy baseball stories that could’ve been the lead for today’s post, but guess what? I love me some suffering of others. Honestly, I would’ve named the site schadenfreude-ball.com, but I thought that would cause this blog to be a hotbed of lederhosen pictures and Wiener schnitzel recipes. (Personally, I have no problem with either, but when Google indexes you, it’s important you are in no way connected to lederhosen or Wiener schnitzel. I believe it goes back to the Potsdam Conference. BTW, for those history buffs out there, I got a kick out of this in Wikipedia, “In March 1945, Finland declares war on Germany.” In case anyone doesn’t follow, Hitler killed himself in April 1945. Way to step up, Finland. They’re like the defensive replacement that comes into the ninth inning of game seven of a championship game. They get to celebrate, but you know they didn’t do anything. Finland is Doug Mientkiewicz. But I digress.) So, with The Love Guru bombing and Brett sent down, July 2008 was a bad month to be a Myers. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Matt Cain - Okay, full disclosure. I have Matt Cain on one of my teams and he’s been sitting on the bench for a majority of the season, but I’m holding him because I think he can be better. Yesterday, he was better. 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 10 Ks.

Chipper Jones - Avoided the DL. Yesterday I said, it looked like Chipper was headed to the DL. I didn’t Celebracadabra this shizz out of thin air. Manager Bobby Cox said he was shocked Jones didn’t hit the DL. Honestly, if you’re in Reno and there’s even odds for Chipper going on the DL, you double down. And don’t forget to tip your waitresses.

Troy Percival - Back to the DL and it wasn’t Wheeler last night for the save… It was Balfour! True, what? I am a True Fushnick! It’s fantasy baseball that I kick. But it was Balfour because Wheeler had gone three days in a row. Wheeler will get the majority of the saves going forward. You want a limb? How’s this — Wheeler gets more saves than Percival in the 2nd half.

Jeff Kent - HR last night. Why can’t he get more home runs in the 2nd half than he got in the first? Cause he’s 40. Well, yeah, but I think he’s too stubborn to totally suck. He has nine home runs right now. I think he gets 12 more. Wow, 12 more! Can I drop Ryan Howard now?! Well, ain’t you smart. Kinsler/Phillips both only had 13 in the 1st half. So 12’s something.

John Danks - 8 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks, he reminds me of a manadrin orange. It looks all weird and shizz, but when you taste it, it tastes fine. That’s Danks. You look at him and his name looks all weird and you don’t trust him then you start him and he’s fine.

Aaron Cook - Double A *beep beep* C-O-O-K. Okay, more disclosure, I’ve had him on a team for two months now. That’s two months longer than I ever thought I’d have Aaron Cook on a team. Whatevs. For a fourth starter on a fantasy team, you can do a lot worse. *cough* Pedro *cough*

Alex Gordon - Guess who’s turning it on? Seriously, guess. Why wouldn’t you guess Alex Gordon?! This question was right next to his name. What, you don’t want to succeed? Success scares you? Gordon, 3 HRs in last week.

Matt Garza - 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 3 Ks. No walks, which is a great sign. I told someone not to start him yesterday against the Sox. I also read the Michael J. Fox autobiography, Lucky Man: A Memoir. Twice. Sometimes you need to zig when I’m zagging.

Mariano Rivera - Kazaam!

J.J. Hardy - 2 HRs and over .450 in the last 7 games. He hit 15 home runs in two months last year. He can get hot. Recognize!

David Wright - 16th HR yesterday. 3 HRs in the last 7 games. He’s soooooo perfect. Like OJ Simpson in the 70s.

Todd Wellemeyer - My fifth starter has a second name it’s something-something-M-E-Y-E-R and has now given up 14 runs in 13.1 innings.

Cliff Lee - 8 IP, 1 ER. Still no sign of aging on Dorian Gray’s face.

Miguel Cabrera - Pinch hit, which is a good sign if people were worried about him heading to the DL.

Rafael Furcal - Officially pulling a Kotchman. After his first minor league game, his back hurt. Something tells me we may not see Furcal again for a while and he may not do anyone any good when he does return.

Jorge Cantu - Hasn’t a hit a HR since June 12th. I get no pleasure in seeing him struggle because I have him on two teams. Damn! I should’ve went with lederhosen pictures and Wiener schnitzel recipes.

Adam Lind - Way back in April, I grabbed Lind. Turned out bad like the last two seasons of 24, so I dropped him. Now he’s back and hitting. I just dropped Melky for him in one league. I love Melky’s name; I hate what Melky does to my team.

Joe Borowski - After the game, Eric Wedge said, “I thought he pitched well, they just got lucky.” After the interview, the Indians put Wedge’s name in the hat for Emmy consideration.

2008 Fantasy Baseball is similar to every of year of fantasy baseball in its dissimilarity of the similar. Hey, I sound like Dr. Suess after three Coladas. (BTW, I’m not implying Dr. Seuss was a drunk. He seemed like a peyote man to me.) To paraphrase Sinatra, “Fantasy baseball surprises… Yeah, we’ve had a few.” Since it’s almost halfway through the 2008 season, here’s a look at the top twenty fantasy baseball surprises according to me. Who am I? The CEP (Chief Executive ‘Pert) for the number one fantasy baseball blog. That’s who. (Or whom. I can’t ever figure out the difference. I never said we were the number one Who/Whom blog. But if we were, Who would write for it. Or Whom. Or would they have one blog author that was Who and the dissenting opinion would be Whom?) Anyway, here’s 2008’s biggest fantasy baseball surprises:

20. Justin Duchscherer - Why isn’t Scot Shields starting for the Angels? Can’t Broxton go six? Damaso Marte has to be better than all of the Pirates starters, right?

19. Ryan Dempster - At least Dook-sheer was good as a reliever. Seriously, my head is spinning from Dempster’s season thus far. My head isn’t meant to spin!

18. Xavier Nady - Two days after the season started, I said pick him up cause you never know how long guys will stay hot. You are only lying to yourself if you listened to me. I didn’t even listen to me.

17. Cristian Guzman - What gets him on this list? Being less awful than is expected. Tallest midget on the list. (I didn’t use the term “little person” because “little person” groups midgets and dwarfs together. This seems to be selling both groups short. Pun obviously intended. Don’t make me point out the obvious!)

16. Nate McLouth - ADP 194. Yeah, that’s McValue.

15. Jason Bay - Maybe this is only a surprise to me, but I thought he was toast. (Here’s someone who never stopped believing.)

14. Jorge Cantu - More valuable than Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Justin Morneau, Aramis Ramirez, Garret Atkins, Carlos Guillen and the guy he replaced, Miguel Cabrera. Seriously, you could’ve drafted Cantu in the first round and it would’ve worked out for you. Now you figure out this game of fantasy baseball.

13. Jacoby Ellsbury - 34 steals; 36 steals for all Red Sox not named Jacoby.

12. Victor Martinez - Kelly Shoppach would’ve gave you more value. (For those unfamiliar with that name, it is not the name of Zach’s girlfriend in Saved By The Bell, but I don’t fault you for thinking so.)

11. Ervin Santana - Johan, Carlos and Tito move over; there’s a new Santana in town.

10. Miguel Cabrera - Joe Crede outperforming Miggy. Maybe Miggy should’ve stayed fat.

9. Rafael Furcal - He’s pulling a Kotchman and that’s just wrong.

8. Kerry Wood - Still healthy as he vies for Comeback Player of the Year honors. (BTW, recent winners of Comeback Player of the Year are Carlos Pena, Dmitri Young, Nomar, Thome, Konerko and Javy Lopez, so if Kerry makes it to October healthy, I still won’t be excited about him in ‘09.)

7. Troy Tulowitzki - When the injury came, half of me (the Lily Tomlin half) was actually happy I could pull him from my lineup.

6. J.J. Putz - Has made Mariners fan miss Miguel Batista, the closer.

5. Milton Bradley - In the beginning of the year, Milton Bradley would have punched you in your stupid face if you told him he was going to be in contention for a Triple Crown. Why? Because.

4. Carlos Quentin - CQ has performed much better than the crappy Coppola movie of the same name. (Speaking of which, at what point do The Godfather/Apocalypse Now favors end? The Coppola surname has wasted at least 300 hours of my life. And I’m subtracting the two hours for the wine tasting at his vineyard. My buzz was the least he could’ve done.)

3. Cliff Lee - The Mets hiring Zsa Zsa Gabor to replace Willie Randolph would be less surprising than his first 13 games started.

2. Edinson Volquez - I begged with you all to draft him before the year began. (BTW, in the same piece I point out how Karabell was wrong for being down on him. Seriously, he is ESPN’s top fantasy analyst — wow.) Of course, I didn’t even think Volquez would be sitting on the major league lead in strikeouts and ERA.

1. Josh Hamilton - Now the crack of the bat is the only crack Josh needs.

I’ve been recruited to participate in a weekly fantasy baseball roundtable with several other fantasy baseball bloggers. I feel so knightly.

Rob Reed of BaseballGeeks.com has posted this week’s transcript on his site.

This week’s question (which was kinda from last week) is: Between Mark Teixeira, David Ortiz, C.C. Sabathia, Miguel Cabrera, Jose Reyes and other underperforming fantasy superstars, who is liable to continue to stink throughout the course of the season and why?

I veered away from the obvious answer (CC) and went with Jose Reyes. You can see my rationale on the link. I guarantee by the end of the year that Santana, Peavy, and Webb provide more value than Reyes. Unworthy of his top 5 draft status in my opinion.

Enjoy.

Let’s pretend Francisco Liriano is that girl you hooked up with at the bar. You think she’s hot, but, honestly, you can’t really remember the color of her hair, let alone her carpet. Though you do remember the sex being good. Now she calls to tell you she’s available Sunday night and your friend, Kevin Slowey, just cancelled on you. Oh, and there’s one condition, since the last time you saw her, she had reconstructive surgery. She swears she’ll be back in form by Sunday. You agree to meet her and begin to talk about that night you met. She confides that she has no idea what you look like either. Now you can meet her because the sex was good one random night before her reconstructive surgery or, because she has no idea what you look like either, you can call your friend and trade him this girl for John Maine. I trade Liriano for John Maine before Sunday night. You’re in a one year league and you’re playing for the here and now. You don’t have time for Liriano to ‘get back to form.’ Sell high and trade Liriano. With that said, here’s some other players you should buy or sell.

SELL

Andruw Jones, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre, Matt Kemp - If you can trade any of these guys, I think you’ll be a happier person. The Pierre Situation™ has screwed up everything. Maybe Pierre gets traded, but at this point you’re not in a good position to succeed with any of these guys.

Felix Pie - Reed Johnson has sliced into the playing time of Pie. Oofa! Grab a spot on the bench next to Matt Murton, Felix. Trade Pie to someone who thinks Pie will definitely win the position and succeed.

Luke Scott - He’s batting near .500. If anyone believes it, I’d trade him. Otherwise, hold onto him for the time being.

Blake DeWitt - If you don’t think Torre’s going to play Nomar, take one look at The Pierre Situation™.

Mark Reynolds - He’s not awful, but he’s not going to be as good as he has been for the last week. Not to mention, he will strikeout 200 times this year.

BUY

Brett Myers - In two starts, he’s been battered like he likes to do to his wife. He’ll be better.

Micah Owings - Almost 9 K/9. Under 3 BB/9.

Edwin Jackson - He got a Murtonesque mishandling by the Dodgers. Underutilized or not utilized at all. Back in the day, he was a great prospect for the Dodgers.  He’s still only 24, but he is on the Rays.

Justin Upton - I don’t think you can get him from anyone in an NL-only league or a keeper, but one year league owners may not be sold. He’s a talent.

Chad Billingsley - Velocity’s down but he was pitched out of the bullpen then made to start. I think it’s just a rough beginning.

Mike Napoli - His average is going to be in the dumpster, but he’s showing power.

Jeff Suppan - Not masterful, but he can help out with wins and innings.

Shawn Hill - In 97 innings last year, he had 65 Ks and a 3.42/1.14. If he’s on waivers, grab him. He’s about to come back from his injury.

Scott Hairston - He got a Murtonesque mishandling in Arizona. He now has his chance to play.

Miguel Cabrera - None of his owners are actually worried about him, are they?