Yesterday, Kyle Schwarber was demoted to Triple-A to clear his head.  But Joe Buck would’ve cleared it for him!  Guess Schwarber is just one less thing for Joe Buck to plug.  Joe Buck is now the new Crying Jordan meme.  Also, yesterday, Jason Heyward was DL’d.  Right now, Joe Maddon is like, “All I need is Ian Happ.   And this chair.  All I need is Ian Happ, this chair and this remote control.  And Tommy La Stella.  All I need is Ian Happ, this chair, this remote control and Tommy La Stella.  And these Buddy Holly glasses.  Happ, chair, remote, La Stella and these glasses!  That’s all I need!”  I’m sure Schwarber will be back at some point, but, in most mixed leagues, you can move on.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Every year, there are surprises in fantasy baseball. Some players come out of nowhere and breakout or, in the case of Aaron Judge, absolutely dominate. Other players regress after a breakout season the year before. There are even the players who have long track records of mediocrity who, all of sudden, appear to have figured something out en route to becoming legitimate contributors both in fantasy and in, you know, real baseball. I like to call these players Justin Smoak-Logan Morrison-Yonder Alonso. The more popular terms among Razzballers for these players are Schmohawks and Hot Schmotatos.

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I’m not afraid to admit that I owned Joc Pederson on four of my five most coveted teams heading into the 2017 fantasy baseball season. Stacking my various squads with a player I believed in the skill set of was much easier for me to stomach given the 16th round price tag and rumblings that Dave Roberts would give him a chance to play everyday. After ripping an Opening Day grand slam and tallying five RBI, Pederson went into hibernation. 48 straight days without a home run and 48 nights where I went to bed convinced another stretch of dominance was just around the corner. Instead, the last few months have brought Pederson owner’s multiple DL stints and as many homers as Joe Panik.

So how on earth do I find myself back at square one, staring at the green add button in ESPN leagues, and wondering why I torment myself with such decisions?

Please, blog, may I have some more?

It’s another of those weeks where I wish I didn’t have to pick a pitcher at all for my FanDuel lineup: tough parks, tough match-ups, or tough-to-justify pitchers. The Rockies are at home in Colorado, Cleveland heads to Minnesota and the Yankees take on the As in Oakland (one of the more hitter-friendly ballparks so far this season), and I’d steer clear of pitching in all those places. So … hitter-stacking it is! It’s a warm, breezy day in Coors, which means the ball should fly there. It’s also a particularly good day for outfielders, for some reason: After the jump, you’ll find a few cheaper options to slip in amid your obvious big plays (Charlie Blackmon [$5,000], Mark Reynolds [$4,100], Ian Desmond [$4,000], I’m looking at you … I just can’t afford you).

New to FanDuel? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot  for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!

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After homering in his fourth straight game, Matt Davidson (2-for-4, 2 runs) is halfway to Dale Long’s record of home runs in eight straight games.  A record I didn’t think would ever be matched, aside from it being matched twice previously by Ken Griffey Jr. and Don Mattingly.  Dale Long was mostly remembered for that record and getting to first base with his bat.  Good year for no-names whose last name ends in son:  Davidson, Morrison, Alonson.  The book on Davidson previously was a AAAA player, which is different than Mickey Mantle and David Wells.  That’s two AA players.  Sadly (for him), Davidson is playing so over his head that giraffes be like, “Yo, come down from there.”  In Triple-A, he was a 30% strikeout guy and is striking out at a 38% rate now, so he will hit .200 for the season and be an only-occasional home run guy.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Hello readers, hope you’re ready for another wonderful write up from The Collector!  Today should be an interesting slate as long as we get the pitcher right.  As my title suggests, I think Michael Pineda at $8,700 is that pitcher.  I’ve talked in the past how he has high strike out upside; besides that, he’s also been very consistent this year if you take the Toronto game out.  He’s looking more and more like the Pineda we all fell in love with during his rookie year.  It also helps he gets to face off against a Trout-less Angels team.  Angels in the Outfield can’t even save this team without Trout.  I expect Pineda to have the best game of the slate, though he might be a little higher owned than I normally like.  Today just focus on picking the guy you like and worry about ownership elsewhere.

Now on to the picks…

New to FanDuel? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond?  Well be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.  Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!

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If Tyler Chatwood ($15,300) never had to step foot in Coors Field again, he would probably be contending for the Cy Young every year… ok he wouldn’t be, but thats how good he has been on the road since 2013. Only Clayton Kershaw ($25,200) has a better road ERA during that span. Chatwood has a 2.35 ERA this season so far on the road; now he gets the low hitting Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates ranked 25th or worse in each of the following hitting categories: Runs, HRs, avg, and OPS. So you can say he is set up nicely against that line up. Kershaw is also on the slate and has to go on the road against the defending American League champs. The Cleveland Indians offense has  been horrendous versus LHP (.236 AVG .691 OPS), making Kershaw an automatic play in cash games. There are some nice pitching options that won’t cost you an arm and leg, though, so let’s take a look at the picks…

New to FantasyDraft? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!

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I use a number of different tools, sites, and metrics every week to adjust my rankings and to determine exactly who I should focus on each week. I usually try to focus on players owned in less than 60% leagues, players who are rising or falling and who you should probably buy low or sell high on, or players who are new to the Top 100 or on the cusp of joining the ranks. It has only been a few weeks since I took over these rankings for the legendary M@, so I am still working on creating the most efficient system (I spend wayyyyyy too much time agonizing over these rankings every Sunday).

I start by going over my notes and spreadsheets from the previous week, then take a peek at Razzball’s Player Rater and look at the current rankings and the Rest of Season Projections. Once I jot down some notes from those, I take a look at ESPN’s PR15 Player Ratings for the last 15 days. Lastly, I check FanGraphs with a focus on the best wOBA for the last 14 days and the last 30 days. Usually, once I am finished with that process, I have an idea of who I am going to write about and a starting point for adjusting the rankings.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Let’s begin by having a moment of silence for the fact that we will be without Mike Trout for two months. I dropped him to 23 in the rankings below, which are considered ROS trade value. I know it is hard to justify Trout over some talented players who aren’t going to miss two months, I just couldn’t bring myself to drop him much lower. The Razzball Player Rater has him all the way down to 71 for ROS projections. Personally, if I were to trade Trout, I would hold out for the highest bid and make someone overpay. Otherwise, I’m not moving him. And in keeper leagues, I would still have him at number 1 and wouldn’t entertain offers.

Now, for the players who are playing right now. The two players I moved up and want to focus on this week are Justin Bour and Justin Smoak. I received some questions and comments on here and on Twitter last week about Smoak, so let’s take a look at him first. He has looked great this season, but I have my doubts.

While Smoak’s slash line and counting stats look great right now, unless he finally figured everything out at 30 years old, I have my doubts. Yes, he is currently on pace for almost 40 home runs. Yes, he is striking out 17.9% of the time, which is almost half as much as he did last season and is well below his career average of 23.5%. Through 55 games and over 200 plate appearances in 2017, the metrics back up what he is doing.

But here’s the thing.

Smoak has been in the league for eight seasons and has over 3,000 plate appearances. He’s a career .227 / .311 / .402 hitter. His previous high for home runs in a season is 20, which he did back in 2013. Take a look at his wOBA by season:

Translation: Smoak isn’t this good. This probably isn’t going to last, and a regression is coming.

Now, as far as Justin Bour goes, I am still skeptical but am less skeptical. Bour is 29 but has just over 1,000 plate appearances at the MLB level. He has displayed this kind of power before, both at the major league level and in the minors, so it is easier to believe that his current power stroke is real. Will he continue to hit up around .300? No, but it is reasonable to expect him to hit in the .250-.270 range and offer up 30 home runs, as long as he can stay healthy (which he can’t always do).

The main point here is that, while Bour is only a year younger, he doesn’t have as much of a negative track record that we can hold against him. He has also displayed plus-power in the past, while Smoak has always struggled to fulfill his potential in that department. Bour is likely to regress a bit as well, but I don’t think his regression will be as extreme as Smoak’s. If I had to pick between these two first basemen as a guy I value higher ROS I am taking Bour every time. Maybe I’m just biased now that I live in South Florida, or maybe their track records are telling us everything we need to know about them…

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If I was a betting man I would guess Chris Sale was an art major in college. Not only does he have a gift of designing uniforms he has a real craft around the plate. Scouts have labeled him a modern-day Picasso. There are some good options at the pitcher spot today however there is only one elite pitcher going. Sale looks to bounce back from a rough outing against his old team. Despite the 5 earned runs he was tagged for in that outing, he still managed to strike out 9. This is Sale’s 2nd appearance against the Orioles this year and he looks to repeat that outing. Sale already has 8 starts with 10 or more k’s including his last start against the Orioles where he had 11. The Orioles have hit lefties hard this year but they have the 5th highest K percentage against them as well. FantasyDraft is making you pay up for the best arm of the day. Expect Sale’s ownership to be high in the cash games and low in the GPP games given his price tag of $24,800.

New to FantasyDraft ? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond?  Well be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.  Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!

Please, blog, may I have some more?