Fantasy Baseball Advice

The first full week brought more reliever injuries, questionable manager decisions, and batting slumps, causing much consternation in the Razzball world. Colby Rasmus took a lot of the vitriol, and was dropped in 10 leagues. He was usually picked up again, though, and started to heat up, finishing with 5 RBI and a stolen base.

Adam LaRoche was a key add this week, and is now owned in all 48 leagues, as compared to 49.4 % of all ESPN leagues. Lance Lynn (44 leagues/18.5% ESPN), Zack Cozart (48/50.9%), Alejandro De Aza (48/22.5%), and Bryan LaHair (37/4.9%) were also RCL favorites. Bryce Harper is now owned in 31 leagues as many are hoping for an early call-up.

There were 6 trades, and as usual in fantasyland, some big names were dealt. In RCL 21,  Giancarlo‘s injury status scared Montgomery Biscuits into trading Stanton and Daniel Bard to Team Bass for Jose Reyes. In the same league, Smell The Glove dealt Andrew McCutchen and Tommy Milone to Man Lotion for Alex Rodriguez and Jay Bruce.  Lackey’s Chicken Shack was chasing saves in RCL 46, trading Brandon Phillips to Wood Street Wonders for Jason Motte and Matt Capps. Others traded this week include Nelson Cruz, Dan Haren, Edwin Encarnacion, Alex Gordon, and Madison Bumgarner. You can find all the trades in the fantasy baseball forums. The Commenter League threads can be found under “Everything Else.”

League Leaders

Premium Lumber (RCL 46), paced by Matt Kemp’s amazing line (.545/7 R/4 HR/8 RBI), were the top hitting team this week. They hit .331 with 18 home runs and 53 RBI, 53 runs, and 7 steals.

Average: .376 (This is Not A Name – Original Recipe)

Runs: 57 (Team Duda on Yu – RCL 38)

HR: 20 (Playin’ The Field – Beef SAGNOF!)

RBI: 59 (The Padre’s Pirates – Matthew Berry Is A Tool )

SB: 14 (Team Elijah’s Army – RCL 22)

Team Robbins (Fantasy Master Lotharios) put up the best pitching numbers this week, thanks to C.J. Wilson (2 wins/1.38 ERA), Jonathan Niese (1 Win/0.00/0.90), Brandon Beachy (1 Win/0.75/1.00), and Ricky Romero (1 Win/1.08/0.60). They finished with 70 Ks in 86 innings, 10 wins, 3 saves, 2.20 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.13.

Ks: 24 (The Man Bear Pigs – RCL 24)

Wins: 10 (Team Robbins – Fantasy Master Lotharios)

Saves: 10 (Ali’s Beard  – Myrtle’s Acres)

ERA: 1.51 (Highly Questionable – RCL 44)

WHIP: 0.73 (Yu R A Whirling Darvish  – RCL 29)

TEAM OF THE WEEK – April 9 – 15
Bay City Bandits (RCL 46)
.332 (105/316) 52R/12 HR/45 RBI/7 SB	48.2 IP 51 K/4 W/2.03/0.97/7 S
The Bay City Bandits moved up 2 spots in the standings to take first place in RCL 46 away from Premium Lumber, with Michael Young (.414/3 R/1 HR/8 RBI), Derek Jeter (.429/5 R/2 HR/6 RBI), and J.D. Martinez (.391/4 R/2 HR/7 RBI) leading the way. Two more Rangers, Ian Kinsler and Josh Hamilton, added 6 home runs and 15 runs scored. Javy Guerra contributed a win and 3 saves, with an ERA of 0.00 and 0.75 WHIP. Matt Garza tossed 8.2 scoreless innings, recording 9 strikeouts and allowing just 5 baserunners. Shawn Marcum added 12 Ks in 13 innings with a 0.77 WHIP.

First off, thanks Grey for this opportunity. Second, please be gentle, Razzballers…this is my first time.

I’ve now played in a 12 team yahoo mixed league where we start two at each infield position and five in the OF (LF,CF,RF,OF,OF) for over five years. In this type of league setting, it’s much harder to cobble together a strong team throughout the year. You don’t find the Alex Gordons of the world out in the FA pool. If they start for their team, they’re getting drafted and chances are if they’re rehabbing and will be back ‘later in the spring’ – I’m looking at YOU Kendry(s) Morales – their backup is drafted as well. The late rounds of these types of leagues are integral to having a good year which makes it vital to know what players are being virtually ignored by their ADP.  Sleepers become a regular part of your starting lineup so you’ve got to dig deeper than the headlines to find those late round gems. Sometimes it’s a player that everyone assumes is washed up – read: Lance Berkman – or a player coming off an injury that everyone has forgotten like Asdrubal Cabrera.  You can’t drop Mike Morse in April and expect to find him in May when he picks it up.  You’ve got to look ahead and take those risks early or in the draft if you wanna survive.  With that out of the way, lets start with a review of 3B.

Third base is an interesting position for 2012.  It will have a new top 25 caliber SS added to it by the end of April in both yahoo and ESPN leagues in Hanley Ramirez and may have the top 1B in baseball in the fold by May if the defensive blasphemy experiment goes well in Detroit for Miguel Cabrera.  The first 10 of the Razzball top 20 third baseman  are well priced and won’t make you want to pull your hair out.  If/when Miggy and HanRam join, you might put it at 12 useful 3B for the year.  From a depth perspective, this to me is the least worrisome IF position to fill that has the ability for a lot of great pairings in leagues that start two.  If you’re drafting Jose Bautista or Evan Longoria, I’d willingly hold my breath all the way down to Edwin Encarnacion while I bulk up at thinner positions such as SS and 1B (yes, 1B is thin this year and yes I fully expect to get flack for that statement).  That said, I don’t see myself drafting a top tier 3B because of the abundance of useful ones. Waiting until round 5 on for 3B allows you to bulk up at 1B, OF, 2B and SS.  In redraft leagues, I’ll be targeting a combo of these third baseman: Pablo Sandoval, Kevin Youkilis, & Mark Reynolds.  My preferred path is Sandoval with Reynolds, but won’t argue with Youk in replacement of Pablo in this scenario.  Both should counter Reynolds BA drain while netting you 55~60 combined HRs.  My only hesitance with Youk – along with A-Rod, Aramis, & Zimmerman – are their health history.  In leagues where each team already owns two 3B, finding a 3rd one to clean up when those guys go down is tough.  These players handcuff you into drafting Swiss army knives like Emilio Bonifacio or Mike Aviles, something I prefer not to do as these players are priced for their eligibility, not their skill set.

I’ll Avoid:

Michael Young – His overall 2011 line seems like a nice 3B to fall back on in the 6th round until you look a little closer.  Despite slugging .474 and having 106 RBIs, he only had 11 HRs.  He also had a career high BABIP  in his age 34 season. Since he’s not Forever Young, that means he’s 35 this year.  I’d rather take a chance that Prado comes close to that line in the 16th round before I draft Young.

David Freese - His upside is .300 20/80/80/5 over 150 or 160 games.  Considering he’s more brittle than the paper the constitution was written on, I’d rather take Moustakas 5 rounds later while he pimps his ride for someone else.

I’ll go for:

Mike Moustakas – It’s like the person typing about David Freese knew exactly what was coming next!  He has struggled at the beginning of every new level of his career and last year was no different.  I’m willing to believe in  his August thru September line for this year in the 19th round as my secondary 3B.

Brent Morel – Though his 2011 was all over the place, he seemed to find his power stroke in the second half belting 8 of his 10 HRs in Sept/Oct.  He’s not going to hit much higher than .260, but could give you 20 HRs.  Hey, in the 23rd round [insert fungus joke here].

3B Situation to monitor: Colorado

We’ve got Casey Blake at the hot corner for the Rockies this year.  Seriously, should someone that’s 38 not named Kate Beckinsale be at anything called the hot corner?  But I digress, Colorado has what they believe to be their 3B of the future in Nolan Arenado moving up to AA this year.  Casey has already recognized and accepted his role of mentor for whenever Arenado arrives.  Colorado does not shy away from bringing prospects straight up from AA – as Juan Nicasio from last year shows – so don’t be surprised to see Nolan with the ballclub in June.  Draft and stash accordingly.

We finish off the infield with the top 20 3rd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.  The 2012 fantasy baseball rankings from shallowest to deepest go shortstops, third basemen, catchers, 2nd basemen then 1st basemen.  That’s right, I think the catchers and 2nd basemen are deeper than the 3rd basemen.  3rd base gets the gas face.  In 2009, I punted 3rd base for Mark Reynolds late.  Worked out fine.  In 2010, I punted 3rd base for Ian Stewart late.  Didn’t work out fine.  In 2011, I really wanted a top 3rd baseman and punted Jose Bautista while targeting Pedro Alvarez, Ryan Zimmerman and David Wright, which taught me a valuable lesson.  I’m a moron.  (A very hurtful lesson, mind you.)  As with other top 20 rankings, I list where I see tiers beginning and ending and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Jose Bautista – His projections can be found at the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

2. Evan Longoria – His projections can be found at the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

3. David Wright – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Reynolds.  I call this tier, “We’re too early in a top 20 for question marks.  So why are there so many question marks?”  Honestly, how many times can we go to this Wright well?  The Wright well hasn’t paid whividends in a whery, whery whong time.  Stupid Elmer Fudd voice in my head.  The one non-scientific stat we have to look at is how he’s alternated good power years with bad ones and in 2012 we’re due for a good one.  Yeah, that’s so non-scientific it’s kinda silly.  The better news is The Great Wall of Flushing is coming down and in.  That’s definitely a cheaper way to acquire offense than signing Pujols or Fielder and more legal than accidentally bumping into players with a steroid needle.  How much the new dimensions will actually affect Wright’s power is threefold.  First fold, his “Just Enough” homers could increase.  Second fold, the park’s size may have got in his head and psychologically he may feel more confident about hitting at Metco and end up hitting more homers.  Third fold, there’s no third fold.  Who ever heard of a third fold?  2012 Projections:  85/24/100/.290/15

4. Adrian Beltre – Great lineup, great ballpark, one man who they call “The Guy Who Brings Them Towels In The Locker Room” sneezes and the whole team goes down with the flu for 15 days.  Yeah, I’m not sure why, but no one on the Rangers gets injured by themselves.  They’re like dominos.  Nelson Cruz goes down, then there goes Hamilton, there goes Kinsler, there goes Beltre… It’s a shame to blame one man but The Guy Who Brings Them Towels In The Locker Room does have shifty eyes.  2012 Projections:  75/28/100/.280/3

5. Pablo Sandoval – After wrestling to lose weight and change his name to Sandrectangle, Pablo embraced his girth and hit 23 homers last year.  Still this guy’s big question mark is where does he find pants that fit him?  Oh, and is the power for real?  It looks like it is plus or minus 2 homers from the 23 last year.  Maybe he can pass his cure of blimpotence over to Billy Butler.  Also, similarly to Butler, Sandoval’s got a way with the good average.  After a flukey injury sidelined him last year expect a nice step forward.  2012 Projections:  80/27/95/.320/3

6. Ryan Zimmerman – In my special no-no area, I have a tingling sensation that Zimmerman’s about to have a huge year.  He’s 27, an age when hitters really hit their prime, and he’s proven before that he can hit 30+ homers if he stays healthy.  Mummify him in bubble wrap and send him out to take grounders!  2012 Projections:  80/27/100/.290/5

7. Brett Lawrie – Yeah, I ranked him pretty high.  We’re going to talk about two hypothetical scenarios.  First scenario has you drafting Lawrie before your leaguemates.  All your leaguemates groan, they all wanted him.  Lawrie starts off the season slow and people are glad they didn’t draft him.  (Or he starts off fast.  Either scenario work for this scenario.  We’ll call these Scenarios 1A and 1B.)  Then he turns things around in 1A, everyone wants him.  Or he continues pounding the ball in 1B and everyone still wants him.  You could trade him for a much more valuable piece or you can ride the wave.  Second scenario (2A), you draft Aramis, he gets hurt in May and no one wants him, not even you.  Then Aramis comes back and hits, but still no one wants him because people don’t trust him to stay healthy.  Or (2B) you trade Aramis for less than his worth because you just want to be done with him and then he continues to hit and you get an ulcer.  In 1A and 1B, you have Lawrie or whatever you want (within reason and depending on what your state constitution allows).  In 2A, you have a piece you don’t even want and an ulcer (2B).  I also went over my Brett Lawrie 2012 fantasy.  2C click the link. 2012 Projections:  90/20/70/.290/24

8. Alex Rodriguez – When I was doing my research for A-Rod, I was looking through some of his past years — 52 homers, 18 steals in 2001, 57 homers and 9 steals in 2002 — how again did we not know there was steroids in baseball?  I mean, every BBWAA member is saddened and disheartened and synonym now when they talk about these players besmirching the good name of baseball.  Why weren’t they saddened etc. when it was going on?  Wasn’t it obvious?  I wasn’t bothered because during these years I was smoking weed.  Was every BBWAA member high?  Any the hoo!  A-Rod’s presumably clean of the clear now, but his body is breaking down because of the years on it.  That’s his question mark.  Can he stay healthy?  I have my doubts.  2012 Projections:  70/24/85/.270/5

9. Aramis Ramirez – When Aramis signed with the Brewers, I went over my Aramis fantasy.  I wrote it while karaoking to Air Supply’s Even the Nights are Better.  2012 Projections:  75/25/95/.295

10. Kevin Youkilis – Okay, basically no 3rd baseman can stay healthy.  I think something that gets lost in the Sawx hype is The Greek God of Can’t Walk Half The Time has hit less than 20 homers over more seasons than he’s hit above 25 homers and has never hit more than 29 homers.  Pablo Sandoval, who’s 7 years younger than him, has as many 20+ homer seasons.  Youuuuuuk is a good name for people who like names.  For people who like players to actually hit, he’s not as good.  2012 Projections:  75/19/85/.270/3

11. Michael Young -  Went over Young’s projections in the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

12. Mark Reynolds – Went over Reynolds’s projections in the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

13. Emilio Bonifacio – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Roberts.  I call this tier, “You should draft someone else.” Went over Bonifacio’s projections at the top 20 shortstops for 2012 fantasy baseball.

14. Ryan Roberts – Went over Roberts’s projections at the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

15. Mike Moustakas – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Stewart.  I call this tier, “The good news, but it comes with degrees of risk.”  This is the good news because 3rd base is about to get infusion of talent.  To use a phrase that sounds like a cliche, brighter days are on the horizon.  Whether it’s Moose, Valencia, Stewart or Gamel, one or more of these guys should provide sneaky value.  Obviously not all of them will, so choose wisely.  I wrote a Moustakas 2012 fantasy post already.  It’s six parts brilliant and one part dumb.  It’s up to you decide which is which.  2012 Projections:   60/20/80/.270/4

16. Danny Valencia – Valencia, California is also known non-ironically as Awesometown.  So I suggest we call him Danny Awesometown.  Makes you more excited about Valencia, doesn’t it?  No?!  Geez, you’re tough.  How about the fact he can hit almost 20 homers and get maybe three steals?  That gets you going, doesn’t it?  All right, how about Danny Might-Be-Solid-Considering-How-Late-You-Can-Draft-Him-town?  2012 Projections:  75/18/85/.265/3

17. Mat Gamel – Here’s what I said earlier this offseason, “No one likes Mat Gamel.   The Brewers wanted to try Gamel in Spring Training last year and he was 30 pounds overweight.  Lay off the mayonnaise, doode.  His Triple-A manager said he’s “hard-headed.”  (No one ever said that of Justin Morneau.)  I get this feeling with a beat provided by will.i.am that Gamel is gonna go the way of Matt Murton.  I hope he doesn’t.  I hope he gets a real shot at 1st base in Spring Training.  I think now that McGehee is gone he will.  Even if all Gamel does is hit homers and make errors.  In 2007, Milwaukeeans called that The Braun Exacta.  I propose the Brewers correct Gamel’s defensive problems similar to how the Rockies went to the humidor.  They should put The Vacuum in Miller Park.  Whenever the visiting team is hitting, you turn The Vacuum to suck and watch as everything is hit to the left side.  The Vacuum sucks so Gamel doesn’t blow.  He had another great year at Triple-A — 28 homers, .310.  He looks like he’s more than ready with the bat.  Definitely will be someone I’ll look at late in drafts for my corner infidel spot.  Could get a cheap 25 homers and a .290 average.”  And that’s me quoting me!  In the end, Gamel is either going to give you 25 homers or 2 homers and you have to drop him because he’s lost the job.  2012 Projections:  60/25/75/.290

18. Ian Stewart – Incredibly, I’m willing to give Mini Mini Donkey one more chance, especially if he’s being drafted late enough.  For a late round flyer what does Stewart have over, say, Pedro Alvarez?  He’s had a full season where he hit 25 homers.  That’s one.  Why him over, say, Freese?  Same reason.  Over Prado?  Same reason.  Stewart also his sneaky 7 to 10 steal speed like his mentor, Mini Donkey. 2012 Projections:  60/24/75/.245/7

19. David Freese – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Edwin Encarnacion.  I call this tier, “My New Year’s Resolution was to not see the movie New Year’s Eve and to draft a 3rd baseman before this tier.”  2011 World Series MVP David Freese has little power, no speed and the hype of changing his name to 2011 World Series MVP David Freese.  Oh, and he can’t stay healthy.  Sounds like he should be the mayor of Awesometown.  2012 Projections:  55/15/65/.290

20. Martin Prado -  The other day Prado showed up at my window singing The Promise by When In Rome.  He was trying to curry favor with me because he knows that his lack of power and speed makes me not want to draft him ever.  When he was done singing, I still didn’t want to draft him but I did invite him in for some risotto.  I have a big heart!  2012 Projections:  80/12/70/.300/5

After the top 20 3rd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s lots of names, but these five stand out:

Edwin Encarnacion – He’s either going to stay healthy and hit .250 with 25 homers or get hurt and have 15 homers and .250.  In most leagues, you’re not going to hold onto him if you draft him so why bother?  Go for upside with someone else.  2012 Projections:  60/20/70/.255/3

Scott Sizemore – UPDATE:  OUT FOR THE YEAR You really shouldn’t have Sizemore on your team outside of AL-Only leagues, and even there he leaves a lot to be desired.  Here’s the deal — dealio, if you’re trying to sound hip but aren’t really — 3rd base is not a deep position and if you’re this deep you don’t have many options.  Sizemore had his best season last year with a 11/5 season and that looked like it was ceiling, and with a ceiling like that who needs floors? (<–I think that makes sense.  Think about it.)  2012 Projections:  65/10/70/.260/7

Lonnie Chisenhall – I already went over my Lonnie Chisenhall fantasy.  I counted six typos.  2012 Projections:  65/20/80/.250/3

Casey McGehee – Casey McGehee is a Baha Man.  He was a guy who looked destined to be a utility man, had a huge season and people started inserting Casey McGehee into the poem, Casey at the Bat.  Turned out he was a utility man who lucked into a big season and those same people wished they didn’t use pen when inserting his name into the poem, so they changed McGehee to MacDonald and told everyone they did a mash-up of Casey at the Bat and Old MacDonald.  2012 Projections:  60/16/70/.260

Pedro Alvarez -  Yes, Casey McGehee might steal his playing time.  What I think actually happens is Alvarez or McGehee goes to first base and the other plays — I don’t know — third base.  Last year all went wrong for PeAl (hmm, that nickname doesn’t really work).  The first year he had a 30.8% K-rate, but he was buoyed by a .341 BABIP.  When his BABIP came back to earth, his K-rate left a crater the size of the Grand Canyon in his average.  He needs to cut back on his Ks or he’s going to be back in the minors, carrying his own bags and staying in dumps with no running water.  Well, that sorta sounds like nice hotels in Pittsburgh, but you catch my drift.  2012 Projections:  60/18/75/.240

We continue our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings with the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.  There’s no 2nd baseman in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.  At least by my calculation.  Some ‘perts are putting Cano in the top 10, but I see him just outside of the top 10, but then again 2nd base is packed to the rafters with production.  It looks deeper than the 1st basemen pool and I’m only being half-facetious.  It’s like all 2nd basemen slept at a Holiday Inn last night.  There’s 15 guys I would take and if I had a middle infield spot on my roster, I’d definitely look to put a 2nd baseman in there.  As with the previous ranking lists, tiers and my projections are noted.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Robinson Cano – See the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Robinson Cano’s projections.

2. Ian Kinsler – See the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Ian Kinsler’s projections.

3. Dustin Pedroia – See the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Dustin Pedroia’s projections.

4. Dan Uggla – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Utley (or Cuddyer, if he has eligibility).  I call this tier, “I see good value.  Draft one.”  This tier name sounds like I’m a handicapper for horse races.  Gambler’s Ruin is great on mud, put all your money on him!   Member when Dan Uggla was hitting, like, .180 and it was July and you were like, “Screw this, homie!  I’m going gangster on my team and trading Uggla for an Obama Chia.”  Then your neighbor saw that getting dropped off at your doorstep, stole it and Uggla went on to hit in like 40 games straight.  Nothing ever works out for you, huh?  Now I’m Worried you left on the oven after drying your pantyhose.  (That Twitter feed is a friend’s.  You follow now, thank you.)  Uggla wasn’t quite the hitter we saw during his hitting streak (no kidding!) but he isn’t a sub-.200 hitter either.  Or is it eyether?  Let’s call this whole thing off!  Wait, he is a 35 homer hitter.  I’ll take that and a box of Ding Dongs!  And, no, box of Ding Dongs isn’t a new Timberlake/Samberg song.  (Yes, that’s two days and two ding dong jokes.  My cup runneth over with ding dong jokes.  I am the ding dongiest!)  2012 Projections:  90/35/105/.250/3

5. Howie Kendrick – Sometimes when you go out on a limb, the limb breaks and you fall on your ass.  That might happen with Kendrick in 2012, but I’m going all in.  From 2010 to 2011 in 18 less games, he went from 10 homers to 18 homers and struck out more.  His HR/FB rate was high and he’s injury-prone.  It points to flukey.  I see a guy with 15 homer power, 15 steal speed, 100 runs and 75 RBIs potential that should hit around .290.  It’s okay, but what puts me over on him is he’s in the prime of his career so he should max out his power and look like Pedroia at a cheaper cost.  Oh, and one thing that’s been criminally under-reported, the Angels added Pujols.  You think someone would’ve talked about that.  2012 Projections:  100/18/70/.290/15

6. Brandon Phillips – Joey Votto’s gonna win the MVP and Brandon Phillips is going to be hoisted onto Jay Bruce’s shoulders next October with the team dedicating their World Series victory to their former pitching coach, Dick Pole.  Just so they can see people on Twitter snicker at his mention.  That’s how I see things playing out.  Phillips won’t be their regular season hero; he’ll be a piece.  The wily vet that plays 150 games a year and gets all those counting stats and has some power and speed that people credit more for their clubhouse leadership.  Whatever, B.P. is still greasing up some decent stats for his position.  2012 Projections:  90/20/85/.275/17

7. Chase Utley – Nah, he’s not winning the MVP again.  Well, I guess anything’s possible if he’s wearing one of Ryan Braun’s Ed Hardy t-shirts, but it seems like the best is behind him like J. Lo.  Then throw in you have no idea how long Ryan Howard is going to be out, then throw in Utley’s inability to stay healthy, then throw in his pomade, then throw in a leprechaun’s toenail and the steam that rises from the brew you threw all that in reads, “Utley should be avoided.”  Now what if I said I didn’t agree?  He’s never had a season of 120+ games where he’s been useless.  Granted, getting to 120 games has been an issue, but we knew going into last year he wasn’t going to be right.  When he did come back, his speed was fine.  Like he was never hurt.  His power was off, but so was his homers per fly ball.  His average was off, but so was his luck.  He’s going to get you 2nd to 3rd round numbers at a much cheaper price than he usually is.  BTW, if he’s bad this year, his career’s in trouble.  I think he knows that too.  2012 Projections:  80/20/85/.280/15

7 1/4. Michael Young – Only has 14 games at 2nd so he may not have eligibility in all leagues.  To see Young’s projections go to the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

7 1/2. Michael Cuddyer – Only has 17 games at 2nd base, so he gets a half ranking.  To see Cuddyer’s projections go to the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

8. Ben Zobrist – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Weeks.  I call this tier, “Others are taking these guys before me.”  I really don’t like Zobrist.  His stats are just too flaky for my tastes.  One year he hits .297 then .238 then .269.  Then he hits 27 homers then 10 then 20.  “Hey, fella, how about you just hit 17 homers and stop confusing Grey?!”  That’s you in the first row behind the Rays’ dugout because you’re protecting my honor.  Thx, btw!  (Don’t you love when someone abbreviates thanks as thx?  Gee, thanks so much for showing me your appreciation by almost writing a WHOLE SIX LETTER WORD!)  I’m ranking Zobrist later than most ‘perts because I don’t want him, but if he fell to me I would take him because he seems like he’s capable of a 15/15 season.  Plus or minus 15 homers and steals.  Yeah, he’s all over the map.  2012 Projections:  75/17/90/.255/17

9. Rickie Weeks – Stop me if you’ve heard this before– Stop!  I haven’t said anything yet, Random Italicized Voice.  I’ve heard, “Stop me if you’ve heard this before” before.  Here’s the games played for Weeks over his career — 96, 95, 118, 129, 37, 160, 118.  Throw out 37 and 160 and on average he plays in 118 games.  Or maybe that’s the median.  Or the mean.  I don’t know.  What I do know is he can’t stay healthy.  He can repeat his power output from last year and chuck in about 10 steals if he’s healthy, but that “if” is the size of Gilbert Grape’s mom.  2012 Projections:  65/18/50/.260/10

10. Danny Espinosa – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Kelly Johnson.  I call this tier, “Shine’s off these guys, but I like them.  Even if they might hit .240 collectively.”  At 24 years old, Espinosa hit 21 homers and stole 17 bases.  That’s the good news.  The very good news is he can hit more homers and steal more bases.  The so-so news is it might not be much more of either.  The bad news is he hit .236.  The not good or not bad news is his luck was neutral.  The “Is this really even news anymore?” news is Espinosa won’t ever hit for much of an average without luck.  The last bit of news is I’m not wearing pants.  2012 Projections:  80/24/90/.240/19

11. Aaron Hill – Here’s what I said towards the end of last year, “Hill looked to be an average issue hitter that could at least give you power.  Not this year.  His power completely evaporated.  Oddly enough, he doubled his line drive rate from 2010 and lowered his K-rate.  In short (which I only say after going long), Hill’s season made no sense.  Seriously, I can’t make heads or tails of it.  Yes, even in hindsight it’s not 20/20.  It will take some brass ones to go all in on Hill again next year, but I’m leaning that way right now.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Now, looking at Hill, I’m still no cyclops with a monocle.  What we do know is he hit .315 in Arizona in the 33 games after he was traded.  It’s something!  I don’t get where those 21 steals came from last year, but if it was some kind of deal with the devil, he forgot to specify to leave his power alone and the devil duped him.  You duping devil!  2012 Projections:  70/18/80/.265/15

12. Kelly Johnson – After a trade that sent Hill to the D-Backs and Johnson to the Jays, these two will be forever linked.  Or just for right now in the rankings.  Either way, let’s pretend we’re in the first semester of our junior year of high school and we’re taking the SATs.  The final question will send you to either Brown or nowhere because you refuse to have a safety school.  Question:  In 2008, Kelly Johnson hit .287.  In 2009, he hit .224.  In 2010, he hit .284.  In 2011, he hit .222.  What will he hit in 2012?  You know the answer; Brown’s within reach!  You say he’ll hit around .280 and… You’re wrong.  You then go on a 15-month bender that finds you waiting tables on an over-60 cruise ship and making out with grandmothers.  His good/bad alternating averages don’t mean anything, except it does tell us it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Johnson to hit something respectable.  2012 Projections:  80/20/70/.265/14

13. Jason Kipnis – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Ackley.  I call this tier, “Sleepers or guys that are overdrafted depending on how smart your leaguemates think they are.”  What I mean by the tier name is in leagues with people who prep the day before and just fly by the seat of their pants, this tier probably won’t be that known unless you’re in Cleveland, Seattle or Oakland.  In leagues where owners started prepping last November, there’s giant flashing lights on this tier’s players to the point where people will probably reach for them way too early.  As for Jason Kipnis, I already went over my Kipnis 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it enclosed with a giant heart on a bathroom stall.  2012 Projections:  80/14/60/.255/12

14. Jemile Weeks – Member when 2nd base was a speed position?  Was before Bret Boone started frosting his hair.  All of these 2nd basemen that are on the scene today probably idolized Boone and his frosted tips.  They probably even went as far to emulate him and frosted their hair too.  When Jemile frosted his hair, his classmates probably called him Sisqo, which is downright embarrassing, so he decided to rebel against the power 2nd baseman and work on his speed.  Or not.  Simply a theory.  Weeks reminds me a bit of Luis Castillo.  That takes some air out of your Jemile Weeks balloon, huh?  Hey, Castillo had some good years.  2012 Projections:  90/3/50/.265/30

15. Dustin Ackley – I’m having a real hard time understanding the hype on Ackley.  To the point where I’m not drafting him unless he falls pretty far.  He’s never hit more than 9 homers at any level of professional ball or stole more than 8 bases.  Granted, these were abbreviated seasons, but he’s also going to be playing his home games in a terrible hitting park.  I’m gonna let someone else take the chance that he shows his ceiling of 15 homers and 15 steals while expecting he shows something closer to… 2012 Projections:  80/12/55/.265/12

16. Ryan Roberts – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Beckham.  I call this tier, “Post-hype and no hype guys.  I guess I’ll draft them, but they’d have to be super cheap.”  Ryan Roberts reads to me like a Ryan Ludwick/Casey McGehee-type.  Never considered much of anything, then they explode on the scene at a late age, then they return to Back To Wherever You Came From-ville (which has higher real estate prices than I’m So Outta Here-ville cause of the influx of has-beens).  There should be a glossary term for these type of no hype players that only have one good year.  Suggest in the comments.  2012 Projections:  55/13/65/.245/15

17. Neil Walker – This guy isn’t far off from Ryan Roberts.  They’re pretty much flip-floppable (Made Up Word of the Day!).  But since Roberts just came off a better season, I put them in this order.  Could see Walker outperforming him in 2012, but not by much since Walker doesn’t have huge power or speed.  Not that Roberts does either… Whatever, I don’t like either, stop arguing with me!  2012 Projections:  70/12/80/.270/7

18. Gordon Beckham – Something that hasn’t been reported (or at least by me) is:  Could Ozzie leaving town have a positive impact on some White Sox players?  You know, the guys that he used to ball-bust.  I wouldn’t be shocked if Beckham comes around as a post-hype sleeper just to prove Ozzie wrong.  Am I betting a whole lot that that (stutterer!) is gonna happen?  Oh, hells no!  Beckham just came off a season where 21% of all of his fly balls were infield pop-ups.  That’s terrible.  In my opinion (and, really, if you don’t want my opinion, you’re probably reading the wrong site), a hitter can’t make worst contact than an infield pop.  By drafting Beckham, you’re basically saying that his last two years were a fluke and he’s going to fix everything.  Put the chances of that happening in one hand and the chances of it not happening in the other hand and you have two empty hands.  Can’t really weigh chances.  Maybe you shouldn’t have quit college to become a scale.  2012 Projections:  55/14/70/.260/5

19. Ryan Raburn – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Roberts.  I call this tier, “Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice and shame on you again.  I’m good at displacing blame.”  Bill James still believes.  He has Raburn’s 2012 projections down for 18/4.  Last year was the chance for Raburn to become relevant.  He’s going to be 31 years old for the majority of the 2012 season.  I got better things to do than draft a 31-year-old player who has never shown much of anything.  Not to mention, there’s been talk of him blahtooning with Ramon Santiago.  That’s nice, have fun!  2012 Projections:  40/12/50/.275/3

20. Brian Roberts – I’m sure Brian Roberts never thought he’d be passed on the rankings by a name that people used to mistakenly call him.  Here’s the world’s smallest violin.  Here’s me putting the world’s smallest violin on eBay.  Here’s someone Buying It Now for one cent and playing it just for Brian Roberts.  2012 Projections:  65/5/35/.260/12

After the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but these stand out, for better or worse:

Daniel Murphy – I left him off the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball and that top 20 went to, like, 30.  Honestly, seriously, Cliff Lee, I can’t imagine drafting Murphy anywhere.  If he hits in the beginning of the year, you can pick him off waivers in most leagues as a hot schmotato.  2012 Projections:  75/12/60/.275/5

Sean Rodriguez – I almost feel the same way about Sean-Rod as I do with Raburn.  Go reread Raburn’s blurb in the passive voice.  The one positive on Sean-Rod that Raburn lacks is age.  Sean-Rod will only be 27 this April.  If there’s no one left on the board, I’d take the flyer and hope Sean-Rod does something.  His K-rate tells me he probably won’t.  2012 Projections:  55/14/65/.230/10

Jose Altuve – I haven’t written a Jose Altuve sleeper post yet, but my Magic Eight Ball says, “There’s a chance you write a sleeper post on Jose Altuve.”  When I bought this Magic Eight Ball in 1989, I never understood why it kept saying that.  In the minors, Altuve showed he could get to double digit power and low 20′s steal-speed.  I’ve seen worse.  You feel me?!  If you do, could you stop?  I hate looking at Astros hitters for anything other than which pitchers to stream against them, but Altuve looks like he could have some sneaky value.  Now to figure out why my Magic Eight Ball keeps telling me to write a sleeper post for Ken Griffey Jr. Jr. Jr.  2012 Projections:  80/12/40/.265/24 (<–crazy optimistic, but whatevs)

The top 10 and top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball are in the bag, along with the top 20 catchers and your receipt for a $30 massage valued at $50.  Thanks, Groupon!  Today, Razzhands, we look at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.  All this shizz can be found under the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  Don’t believe me?  Click the link.  This top 20 list of 1st basemen is bursting at the seams like you at a Hometown Buffet.  Speaking of gorging yourself, I’d like a top 1st baseman on my team in 2012, but it’s a little different year than last year.  There’s actually only 5 top first basemen then caveats on number 6 (Te(i)x) through 9, then there’s some interesting flyers a bit later.  I have a feeling 2013′s rankings are going to see major shifts with some guys that are lower on this ranking sheet moving up.  Should be a fun year for first basemen and one where you can take a bit more risk than previous years.  This list will get additional 1st basemen added to it in the way of sleeper posts.  As with the other rankings, the first basemen are broken up into tiers with my projections included.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Miguel Cabrera – See top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Miguel Cabrera’s projections.

2. Albert Pujols – See top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Albert Pujols’s projections.

3. Joey Votto – See top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Joey Votto’s projections.

4. Adrian Gonzalez – See top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Adrian Gonzalez’s projections.

5. Prince Fielder – See top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Prince Fielder’s projections.

6. Mark Teixeira – See top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Mark Teixeira’s projections.  This is actually a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Michael Young.  I call this tier, “Caterpillars.  Tier name will be explained in the Young blurb.  Feel free to read Young’s blurb then return here.  Hey, back already?!  Awesome!  I missed you.  Do you enjoy cuddling?”

7. Paul Konerko – He’s been wildly consistent.  In 2008 when he hit only 22 homers, it looks like the anomaly.  If I were to say 2012 is the year he gets old and it all falls apart, I’d just be guessing.  Last year he hit hardly any doubles, more line drives and singles, but he’s also getting smarter cutting his K-rate and increasing his walk rate.  The biggest hurdle Konerko is going to have this year is keeping his will to play as the team folds on Opening Day.  Maybe Hawk can work in some of his positivism in the negativity.  “This is the fastest a team has ever been out of contention!  You can put it on the board… We gone!”  2012 Projections:  85/29/100/.290

8. Lance Berkman – Let’s see if you can pick out the number that doesn’t belong, these are his homer totals from 2009 to 2011 — 25, 14, 31.  If you said 14, you’re a believer.  Feel free to draft Berkman.  If you said 31, you’re in my camp.  We will not be drafting Berkman.  If you said 27, that wasn’t a choice.  Berkman didn’t necessarily have an odd year for homers per fly balls.  He made solid contact, reducing his ground balls, but he’s 36 years old and missing Pujols.  That’s enough for me to avoid.  2012 Projections:  80/24/95/.275/3

9. Michael Young – This tier is filled with some older shorties, huh?  Go, shorty, it’s your 35th birthday; we gonna party like it’s your 35th birthday!  As I kinda said in the opening paragraph, the 1st basemen in 2012 are about to go caterpillar up in here and morph into a butterfly, but with that butterfly emerging from its cocoon Don Ameche-style, it needs to shed its caterpillar skin (can you tell I did well in my college science courses?).  This tier is gonna leave behind some caterpillar skin that will be released into the garden and turn into a new plant and/or Eric Hosmer.  (Again, not a science major.)  To explain all of this without the confusing metaphor, guys in this tier are getting old and will make way for guys in the next tier for next year.  As for Young, I don’t like him because he only gives average, and, while that’s been consistently solid in his career, he still got lucky last year and he’s due to hit a lot closer to .300 than .340.  Projections:  75/15/90/.310/5

10. Carlos Santana – Here comes the fun!  Can you feel the excitement?  It’s like that time we got together and did the crab circle dance in the pool in Cabo San Lucas and all our roommates were there except Zach and Ashley — but who needs them anyway?!  This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Butler.  I call this tier, “The crab circle in Cabo San Lucas.”  Is that too specific a reference?  You guys and three girl readers get it.  See the top 20 catchers for 2012 fantasy baseball to see Carlos Santana’s projections.

11. Eric Hosmer – I’m ignoring sophomore jinxes like I ignored when my whole sophomore class saw me get depantsed and I had on dirty tightie-whities.  I continue to stress that they were once all brown underwear that got bleached.  Hosmer is going to be special, and even if it’s not this year, he’s going to hold trade value through the season unless his bottom really falls out, which I don’t envision happening.  His commitment to stealing around ten bases will keep him from totally flopping.  He will be Joey Votto-lite this year.  How lite is the only question.  I don’t think it’ll be that lite.  BTW, you know who’s Billy Butler-lite?  Kirstie Alley.  2012 Projections:  85/25/95/.280/10

12. Michael Morse – I think Morse just had his best season, but I also don’t think he’s gonna fall like, say, Ryan Ludwick of a few years ago, to mention a player that was old for a prospect, broke out then went back to obscurity.  Speaking of which, when you get robbed in a parking garage and the security guard tells the police they didn’t hear anything, you tell them they’re more like obscurity!  Store it away for when it’s applicable.  Morse had the trappings* of a breakout but his health always got in the way.  I’m excited to watch the Nats this year and Morse should be smack dab in the middle of it.  *I have no idea if I used trappings right but it sounded pretty cool the way I just threw it out there, right?  2012 Projections:  80/27/90/.275/3

13. Michael Cuddyer – Gets away from Hubert H. Homerfree Dome and goes to Coors.  Boom goes the dynamite!  Or does it?  Cuddyer just had a solid season, and terrific when compared to the team around him.  Jack Wilson would’ve looked good in that Minnesota mucky muck last year.  Cuddyer hits a ton of ground balls and he’s not a huge homer threat.  I’d say if he repeats his 2011, it’s a win for him and his fantasy owners, especially since he has 2nd base eligibility in some leagues (17 games).  Check your rules first before you draft him for 2nd, then think about how you’re checking rules for fantasy baseball.  And you wonder why you have no success with the ladies.  2012 Projections:  75/22/85/.275/5

14. Mark Reynolds – His K-rate is kinda comical.  He’s a terrible real baseball player.  But real baseball is for real athletes.  What kind of crap is that?!  Give me a computer, an ergonomic chair and some Doritos, I’m playing fantasy baseball!  As long as Mini Donkey continues to hit 35 homers and steal 7-10 bases, he has solid fantasy value, just don’t draft Krispie Young, Adam Dunn or any other low average guys with him.  Actually, don’t draft Adam Dunn at all.  2012 Projections:  75/35/90/.230/7

15. Adam Lind – The reason why I still go back to Lind no matter how many times he kicks my metaphorical puppy is because he’s capable of 35+ homers.  Also, he got a bad rap in 2010 for being a guy that comes with a poor average, but he’s not that, y’all!  He’s around a .260 guy with neutral luck.  That’s a’ight, and a’ight is better than just a’ight but not quite a’ight a’ight.  Want a silly prediction that has no basis in science or fact?  Lind’s gonna be a top three finisher in 2012 for MVP.  2012 Projections:  90/32/105/.270 (<–crazy optimistic, but whatevs)

15 1/2. Billy Butler – I gave Butler a half ranking because he only has 11 games at 1st base.  In Yahoo leagues, you can place The Moob Man at 1st.  I’d use two hands so one moob doesn’t feel neglected.  Yes, Butler’s in the exciting tier, but I worry that Butler will only get 17 or less homers with a bad case of blimpotence.  But II, The Return of But, at 26 years old I think we can trust he’ll hover closer to 20 ding dongs.  Butler, “Did someone say ding dongs?!”  2012 Projections:  90/20/100/.300

16. Ryan Howard – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of the list.  I call this tier, “Some major question marks, but a chance for nice dividends.”  Howard will move in the rankings at some point in the preseason when we know exactly when he’s gonna return.  If he’s back by the end of April, he hits 25-30 homers and is worth stashing.  If he’s not due back until midseason, I wouldn’t even bother drafting him and would drop him off this list completely.  I don’t believe in DL’ing players for months in redraft leagues.  For example, think about how many years you drafted Brandon Webb waiting for him to return from injury.  Yeah, that worked out well.  2012 Projections:  70/28/100/.260 (returning on May 1st)

17. Mike Napoli – See the top 20 catchers for 2012 fantasy baseball to see Mike Napoli’s projections.

18. Ike Davis – Last year, Ike took so many hits on the DL; somewhere Tina Turner was smiling.  Davis says his ankle will be good to go for Spring Training.  I say, just keep him away from the Mets doctors.  From this tier, I’d say Davis has the biggest chance to shoot up the rankings for next year.  Or he could have one setback and miss another three months.  2012 Projections:  85/22/90/.280

19. Mark Trumbo – When I went over Albert Pujols’s signing, I also covered Trumbo’s question mark.  As long as Abreu, Double I and Kendrys are shooting the shizz and talking about the good old times, Trumbo’s either playing 3rd or in trouble of losing playing time.  3rd base would be great, but his defense might give Scioscia the gas face.  I really can’t see someone who gave Jeff Mathis 1360 plate appearances in 5 years playing Trumbo at third.  That’s a huge question mark.  If Trumbo can get 500 plate appearances, then I’d happily draft him. Remember a platoon player at catcher is doable for fantasy, but at 1st or even at corner you need stats.  Projections:  60/25/75/.260/7 (500 PAs)

20. Paul Goldschmidt – I already went over my Paul Goldschmidt fantasy.  I wrote it while rooting for Garfield from Parking Wars to boot a car.  2012 Projections:  75/27/85/.245/7

After the top 20 1st basemen, there’s a lot of names but these stand out:

Kendrys Morales – Might not be a bigger question mark on this entire list.  Ryan Howard could be out for a while, but if he returns, you should get decent production.  Kendrys might return and still be crizzap.  Or he might return and platoon with Abreu or Trumbo or Wells.  Or he might return and be valuable.  You got more variables than an episode of Mythbusters.  Boom!  I’m bigger on basic cable than Chumlee!  2012 Projections:  65/22/75/.290

Justin Morneau – This is one question mark that I’m not drafting anywhere.  This schmohawk can come to my house and make me a perfectly medium-rare steak with the most amazing compound butter and I won’t go near him because, after last year, his steak will probably give me an immediate heart attack.  2012 Projections:  60/17/75/.285

Gaby Sanchez – He (she?) can give you modest power and solid counting stats.  Plus, you can pretend you have a girl on your team.  You ask why he’s not ranked and I answer that he is.  He’s ranked just after Morneau.  Him and Morneau are a bit of a toss-up, but Morneau has an outside chance at bigger power numbers.  Gaby has a better chance of actually playing a full season.  2012 Projections:  65/20/85/.265/3

Freddie Freeman – I don’t look forward to drafting Freeman.  So much so, I won’t draft him.  So much so much so, I didn’t even rank him.  He’s not ranked.  He’s just blurbed here.  He’s too much James Loney for my taste.  He has a slightly off year on power and you’re gonna be lucky to get 17 homers.  Belch called and said burp.  2012 Projections:  60/19/75/.280/3

Yonder Alonso – I took all the prospect reports on Alonso and put through my supercomputer and out came, “Should develop into a 20+ homer hitter with a great eye.  Padres TV can save time by eliminating instant replay because he runs like he’s in slow mo.”  I liked Yonder a lot more when he was on the Reds with no starting job than on the Padres with a starting job.  It’s just so hard to get excited about a hitter’s upside in Petco.  2012 Projections:  55/16/70/.280

Justin Smoak – I’m letting someone else take the Smoak gamble this year.  Until he hits 25+ homers, I don’t want to mess with his .240-ish average.  Call me crazy.  You, “Crazy.”  2012 Projections:  55/18/65/.245

Carlos Pena – Looking for someone this year that can do what Adam Dunn did last year?  Look no further!  He signed with the Rays, but it doesn’t matter.  He is what he is everywhere he plays.  I will now slap myself hard across the face for saying a variation of “it is what it is.”  2012 Projections:  55/25/75/.210

Adam Dunn – Everyone seems to think Dunn is not, um, done.  Correction:  Everyone that did not own him last year.  I guess they want a piece of the frustration that others felt last year.  That’s like standing at the craps table and watching roll after roll where people lose and you’re like, “Now is the time to get in!”  No, it’s not.  There’s no reason why the table is going to turn for the better.  The big-bellied age quickly and poorly.  Don’t go near Dunn just because you lucked out not owning him last year.  And, if you did own him last year and want more, then you’re like Homer grabbing the donut no matter how many times the electrical current shocks him.  2012 Projections:  55/22/80/.220 (<–actually optimistic)

Anthony Rizzo – Because I couldn’t end the post on a sour note with Adam Dunn, here’s R to the izzo.  I already went over my Anthony Rizzo 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it while huffing.  It was also written before the trade to the Cubs, so the end about how I wanna take a chainsaw to Petco is irrelevant.  I don’t think we’ll see Rizzo until June at the earliest so in redraft leagues, I’d ignore him, but in keeper leagues I’d stash him.  He could hit 25 homers as soon as next year.  If he breaks camp with the Cubs, then it’s on like Steve Wiebe playing Donkey Kong.  2012 Projections:  30/10/45/.250/4 (in 300 ABs)

Brandon Belt – Okay, one more!  This is it though.  If Belt were guaranteed everyday playing time, I’d place him between Napoli and Davis.  Around 16 and a half.  Belt is capable of 25/10/.280, which would have him poised to be a top 5 1st baseman next year.  The problem is Bruce Bochy has a gigantic head, but a very small brain.  Hopefully he realizes Belt ties the entire Giants outfit together.  2012 Projections:  70/24/80/.280/10 (in 500 ABs)