Fantasy Baseball Advice

First the Brewers fire their manager in September, then they pitch CC on three days rest for about a month after letting him throw 150 pitches per start for two months and now they rush back their prized pitcher, Yovani Gallardo. The Brewers are officially trying to choke worse than the Mets, while the Mets are showing they weren’t one-flop wonders last year. Too bad the Astros and the Diamondbacks just flat out sucked for three months or they’d be battling for the Wild Card. Gallardo will probably only get to the fourth or fifth inning so he might not have much value. Then again, the Brewers may let him throw 100+ pitches until he turns the ball over to Sabathia for the final three innings. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Mark DeRosa - HR yesterday and then a leg injury forced him out of the game. Ah, the agony and the ecstasy… What? I was being poetic.

Hank Blalock - HR yesterday for the 4th game in a row. I told you to pick up Blalock two days before he hit his first. But whatever, you like to be difficult. It’s your thing.

Michael Young - 4-for-4, I think he still has, like, a fractured finger or something. If not scoring the winning run would help the Rangers go into extra innings and allow Young a chance for 200 hits, he would not score that run.

Carlos Zambrano - Since his no-hitter, he’s been a crap satay.

Willy Taveras - Done for the season with a stress fracture. Back date this to August. Dude stole 68 bases this year and collected only 64 runs. According to Elias Sports Bureau, this is the first time in a long time, maybe even forever, that someone stole as many as 68 bases and failed to score that many runs. Okay, maybe they didn’t say that. But here are some things heard around Elias Sports Bureau’s office in the last week, “Gloria, Roy’s secretary, said ‘It’s Jayson Stark calling’ thirty-eight times this week for a new office record,” “Roy said ‘Tell Stark I’m in a meeting’ a record thirty-eight times this week,” and “For a record ten times in one day, Mike coughed “loser” when asked if he was going to William’s birthday party.”

David DeJesus - Left yesterday’s game with a high hip flexor something or other. May not play again this year. Buh-but the Royals are fighting for 4th place!

Edinson Volquez - Likely done for the year. Finally drafting Cueto and Harang before Volquez looks like a smart move.

Andy Pettitte - Done for the year. Aceves will start on Saturday. I like that start, friend.

Ryan Franklin - Got another save. Looks like he’s the Cards closer for the final weekend. Do take note, save vultures.

Manny Delcarmen - There’s more vulture saves where that came from, carcass breath. The Sawx rested Papelbon and gave the save to Manny of Carmen.

Cameron Maybin - 3-for-3 with a steal before leaving the game with a stiff hip. Two stiff hips and he wouldn’t be able to walk out of the bar. Ladies and gentlemen, Kevin Eubanks.

Rafael Furcal - Was activated from the DL, and got into the game as a pinch hitter in the 8th inning. I wouldn’t expect too much from him these final few days; Torre says he’ll play “here and there. And I love cannolis.”

Adam Wainwright - In his last start of the year, gave up two earned in six innings. Decent return from injury in the 2nd half. That real upside of his struggles this year will be the fresh arm he’ll have next year. He’ll be on 75% of my teams next year, fo sho.

Mark Reynolds - His 199th K last night to tie the major league record. Earlier in the year, Rudy and I had a friendly wager going for who would strikeout the most, Cust or Reynolds. Unless Cust Ks eight more times than Reynolds this weekend, I should have it locked up. In other words, this bet is still very much undecided.

Max Scherzer - 5 IP, 2 ER. Last start of the year and he’s had prettier ones. I will write a lot more about Jobacum this offseason.

Todd Jones - He’s thrown his last 76 MPH fastball as he announced his retirement in his The Sporting News column. Other topics he covered in his column, “Real Men Rely on Finesse,” “Pussies Throw Fast,” and “Where have you gone, Fu Manchu mustache?” Pour some prune juice out for Jones.

You know how you never really see yourself for who you are? Right, well, I wonder if Sheets doesn’t see himself as injury-prone. Instead, Sheets sees everyone else and thinks they’re Magoo’ing their way through their life. He sits in the locker room and he’s like, “Wow, Fielder I can’t believe you didn’t just twist your ankle right there!” And Fielder looks at him confused, “Ben, I was just tying CC’s shoelaces for him.” (Cause Prince and CC obviously have to tie each other’s shoelaces.) Also, I wonder if Sheets’s family is constantly trying to get him out of harm’s way. His wife, “Let Ben Jr. go get you some more flapjacks from the buffet. Those heatlamps look hot.” Either way, Sheets is injured. A few starts ago he complained of groin tightness. That was obviously bull–Sheets now is complaining of elbow pain. I’d make plans to be without Sheets and drop him if you need the roster room. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Adam LaRoche/David Ortiz/Hunter Pence - Each with 2 HRs. In my barbecue grill’s vernacular, I’d say these players are HOO or Hot Off Off. I’m sure a lot of you wouldn’t mind a HOW or a WHO or even a WOW.

Edwin Encarnacion - Has pain in his wrist. Never a good place for a hitter to have pain. Also, now is the time of the year when people mysteriously sit out for a week even though they are only day-to-day. Yes, BJ Upton, I’m talking to you.

Hanley Ramirez - 2 HRs. Rejoice! Unfortunately, he came out of the game with shoulder soreness. Dejoice! Though he says he shouldn’t miss more than a game at most. Re-rejoice!

Brad Ziegler - Gave up his first major league home run, but his season ERA is only 0.82, which is actually bested by his teammate, Devine at 0.65. Incredible years these two are having. I think Devine’s going to be closing next year and Ziegler will be setting him up, but stay tuned.

Ty Wigginton - Finally was able to take some weight off his teammates and chip in an 0-for-4.

Cliff Lee - Didn’t have his best stuff, but before this bizarro season that would’ve meant he was rocked for ten runs. Instead he got hit around a little, but it wasn’t that awful and just missed recording his 23rd win.

Chone Figgins - Elbow pain from being hit by a pitch isn’t going away. He has no idea why. I have an idea; he weighs a buck-thirty soaking wet and he has skinny, granny bones. I’d expect the Angels to rest him right up until the playoffs.

Tony Peña - As of right now, Peña and Qualls are probably sharing closing duties. That’s if Qualls isn’t hiding an injury, which he might be because he should have been out there for the save last night. Stuck an nena on his en and called it macaroni…

Jeff Francis - Done for the year. Back date this to April.

Michael Young - Left the game yesterday because of pain in his fractured finger. He’s been trying to play through it to get to 200 hits. Don’t worry, Young, when it’s time, I’m sure the Hall of Fame committee will ignore your accomplishments either way.

Aaron Harang - Complete game shutout. Lots of offense all around baseball yesterday and Harang comes out smelling like roses. You say tomato, Harang says tomahto… You say elevator, Harang says lift…

Carlos Gomez - HR yesterday and now has 13 RBIs in the last 7 days. Watch CarGo go.

Brandon Knight - 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 Ks. Gets out of KITT, throws a decent couple of innings, but is benefited by facing the Nots, then gets back in KITT and drives off.

Ryan Shealy - Of course he hit a home run. Was there any doubt he would hit one today?

Freddy Garcia - Yes, he looked fine tonight. Yes, he used to be decent. No, I don’t want any part of him. But he goes against the Royals next. Fine, in some deep leagues you can look.

Travis Hafner - HR yesterday. The Comatose Indians Fan can’t wait to see who the Indians are matching up with in the playoffs. Maybe the Tigers! Meanwhile, in Michigan, a young man wakes from a six month coma. He turns on Sportscenter to see the Tigers scored 17 runs with most of the runs coming from the bottom of the order. “They are just like the ‘27 Yanks!” Comatose Tigers Fan can’t wait to see his team beat the Yankees in the playoffs.

Someone who’s friends with Dr. James Andrews just sent him this email, “Yo, Grisly Andrews, quick question. Am I holding onto Hudson or should I pick up Campillo? Also, love to have you over again for dinner, but Mary says you can’t reconfigure a chicken from the bones and scraps. It freaks out the kids. Peace!” Let’s see, so far this year, Dr. James Andrews has seen Hafner, Marcum, McGowan, Estelle Getty, Mulder, Austin Kearns, Freddy Sanchez and now Tim Hudson. That is a Dean’s List of broken dreams and unfilled promises.  As we move into August, you have to make hard and fast decisions and go with the hot hands. So, with that in mind, I’ve already dropped Hudson. His injury sounds like it might need surgery. Even if it doesn’t, an arm injury on a guy who’s playing for a team that decided to pack it in sometime on Monday is not a good thing. In deeper leagues, I probably won’t wait longer than a few days to cut ties with Hudson. It was a good run while he was out there and it’s not goodbye, it’s see you maybe next year. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jorge Posada - Done for the year. You can go ahead and back date this to April.

Michael Young - Fractured his finger, but vows to be back in a week. I believe it. This guy is so set on getting 200 hits every year I could see him not wanting to score a winning run in an extra innings game just so he might get another at-bat and a chance at another hit. Let’s hope Young never gets to 3000 hits, because if you thought Wade Boggs’s induction into the Hall of Fame was boring, you’ve seen nothing. At least Wade’s speech had the “Is he going to mention Margo Adams?” factor and the “Is he going to start eating chicken?”

John Maine - Shoulder tightness forced him out of the game. In ten team leagues, he’s the next guy I cut. I’m looking at Ubaldo, Meche, Randy and Wandy. (BTW, Wandy should pronounce his name like it rhymes with Randy. Cuz that would be awesome, possum.)

Salomon Torres - Kazaam!

Casey Kotchman - HR yesterday, now 3 HRs in a week. And that’s one home run for every mention of him I’ve done in the past week. That’s my quota. He’s now off my list and I won’t mention him again.

Ian Snell - 7 IP, 4 ER and got the win. This was his second win since April 12th. Wow, what a razztastic season.

Jeremy Guthrie - 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Ks and the win. This performance bought him a two week reprieve on all of my teams. (Maine and Hudson’s injuries didn’t hurt either. I mean, they did hurt, so that aided in Guthrie’s reprieve… Oh, forget it.)

Mike Mussina - 5 IP, 6 ER. Currently reading The Corrections.

Kevin Slowey - Shutout, 6 hitter, 5 Ks. Great start, but I’m not looking at grabbing him in any league. Am I as smart as a 5th grader? You decide.

Alex Gordon - 3-for-4 with a HR. Also the HR was his first against a lefty all year (so of course it came on the bench in the few leagues where I still have him. Sonavabench!). To call Gordon a disappointment up until this point, would be like calling the Astros’ Randy Wolf trade questionable.

Adrian Beltre - 2 HRs. As I mentioned to my Nana and Popsie, Beltre is good in the 2nd half of the year even when he’s not good in the 1st half.

Zach Greinke - 7.1 IP, 2 ER, 11 Ks and the win. I’d point out how I traded Melky to Rudy for Greinke three months ago, but Rudy’s 21.5 points behind me at this point so it would be cruel to point out anything to do with his team. I probably shouldn’t even be mentioning that he’s 21.5 points behind me. I definitely will not be mentioning that I’m also beating him in our Razzball league. By a lot.

Adam Jones - 3-for-6, 5 RBIs, HR. I think Michael J. Fox in “Lucky Man” summed it best when he said, “I became so intoxicated on the nectar of money and the ambrosia of unlimited possibility, that I fell completely under its influence, forgetting for a time that it wasn’t real.” So true, Michael J., but Adam Jones is for real. And has the best ESPN player photo to prove it.

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame. To read more on the FBHOF, click here.

This week, the best shortstops are identified and elected. Here is the FBHOF page for the position.

The third installment for the inaugural list of inductees into the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame looks at shortstops, a position which has undergone much churn since 1980.  Previously a non-hitting position, shortstops are now arguably the strongest in fantasy baseball and this is reflected in the inductee selections.  Aside from Catchers, the shortstops have historically been one of the two weakest positions and their representation in the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame is minimal – only two made the cut.

Below is a chart the bears some explanation.  To figure out which positions have historically outperformed the others, I combed through the scores of each fantasy worthy player, determined the player’s position, and then derived the average score for each position, each year.

To make sure we are all on the same page, I:
- Took all “fantasy worthy” shortstops in 1980 and figured their group average score.
- Repeated the process for the 1980 crew of 1B, 2B, 3B, and OF.
- Then derived a similar set of scores for every other season.
- Almost done.  Next I determined the ranking of each position for each year when compared to other positions.  For example, in 1980 going across the diamond (1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF) the average scores were 5.6, 3.7, 4.9, 4.2, 5.0.  This gives a ranking (across the diamond again) of 1st, 5th, 3rd, 4th, 2nd.
- Finally, I summed the number of instances for each ranking for each position.  The result:

Please note that I excluded Catchers since they are easily the worst position and there is no need to spend any time confirming this.  I also only looked at the period of 1980 through 2002 since we don’t need to look at the most recent 5 years because any player who came to the majors just 5 years ago will not be in the hall of fame.  (Please note however that in the last 5 years the shortstops have had the best ranking three times).

What I found is not surprising.  First basemen followed by outfielders are the strongest positions historically.  Middle infielders take up the rear while the third basemen lie somewhere in between.  The point?  Shortstops rarely help your fantasy team to a great extent.  If they rarely help it stands to reason that there won’t be many elite players, especially when only looking at players who are great for at least five year stretches.   Many shortstops have had very good seasons, but not so many have done it at least five times.

Need further evidence?  After looking at this data for quite some time it has become apparent that a HOF worthy seasonal score is about 10 FBHOF points.  This is the minimum.  Here is list of the number of 10 point seasons for each position from 1980-2002:

214:  OF
81:  1B
50:  3B
37:  2B
30:  SS
19:  C
5:  DH

Shortstops just don’t help you win as much as other positions and as a result, only two make it in today.

Starting things off is arguably the best fantasy player of all time, Alex Rodriguez.  It seems it has been a lifetime since Rodriguez has had shortstop eligibility, but in his career just 31% of his seasons have been at third base.  The rules therefore require that he goes in as a shortstop and so he will.

Rodriguez’s FBHOF score is a whopping 86.9, second only to Barry Bonds for offensive positions and fourth overall.  His Peak Score of 81.2 is the best ever for a batter and his career total is third.  All told, Rodriguez has been the most dominant fantasy player of the era.  It’s worth looking at his stats season by season, here are his 5 best:

He has been so good that his 2002 season where he smacked 57 home runs doesn’t make the cut into his peak score, the core metric used for induction.  Additionally, every season in which he was a full time player Rodriguez has recorded a FBHOF score of at least 10, something no other player has even come close to duplicating.

As one of handful of players to accumulate 85 or more points, the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame will have more on A-Rod’s prowess in a special write-up in the coming weeks.

The second Hall of Fame shortstop is no stranger to greatness either.  Cal Ripken is said to have revolutionized the position and while I am not so sure about that (see Banks, Ernie) I do agree he was really, really good for a long time.

Ripken had two great seasons, 8 years apart no less.  In 1983 he batted .318 with 121 R, 27 HR, and 102 RBI.  In 1991 he was even better attaining a .323 average, with 99 R, 34 HR, 114 RBI, and 6 SB. Both of these seasons scored in high 13’s for FBHOF points and both were of Top-5 overall quality.  In between these years he churned out three other very good to great seasons which makes his peak score 61.0, second to only Rodriguez.  Ripken also joins Howard Johnson and Robin Yount as the only shortstops prior to Rodriguez to finish more than one season rated in the Top 5 overall.

His peak 5-year average batting line is .302 AVG, 107 R, 28 HR, 99 RBI, 3 SB and for those that look at this and see Miguel Tejada keep in mind the context of Ripken’s achievements.  The average league minimum during Ripken’s peak was just .247 AVG, 47 R, 7 HR, 42 RBI, and 6 SB.  This shows how suppressed offenses were while Ripken was one of the greats.

There are several shortstops who could have arguably been elected, but in the end their core FBHOF wasn’t close enough to the magical 65 points to bend the rules.  The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame is for great contributors, not just the very good.

Derek Jeter – Cap’n Jete’s was the closest to election with a solid 60.2 FBHOF score.  In the end however, he’s about a half a season away from enshrinement, and is certainly hurt by the high offensive era he has played through.  Jeter has 3 great seasons (FBHOF scores of 12.6, 12.3), one very good (10.3), and another just below the cut (9.7).  Comparing Jeter to Ripken, we find Ripken’s best was indeed superior to Jeter’s - the Oriole has two seasonal scores above 13.5 which is the difference maker between the two.

Can Jeter make it in?  With a great season, yes, of course.  He also has a chance based upon the longevity bonus that can be awarded (1% for every Fantasy Worthy Season).  Assuming he doesn’t increase his peak score, he’ll need a total of 12 non-peak fantasy worthy seasons to be inducted.  He currently stands at 7.  He’s 34 years old this year, so if he plays at league minimum standards until he’s 38, he’ll make it.  Seems likely to me.

Howard Johnson – Players like Johnson likely deserve their own section at FBHOF.  Johnson was elite for two years, finishing as the #1 and #2 ranked batter in 1989 and 1991.  During these two seasons he averaged 106 R, 37 HR, 109 RBI, 35 SB, and a .273 AVG.  He also finished first or second at his position 4 times.  However, that key 5th season isn’t close to greatness as he finished 43rd overall and this wipes out any chance he had for election.

Nomar Garciaparra – Garciaparra is in almost the same boat as Jeter, he had many very good seasons and not enough great ones.  During his peak he averaged a final ranking of 13th among batters; Ripken averaged 9th and Jeter 12th.

Alan Trammell – The Detroit Tiger isn’t all that close to election and his real baseball skills are much superior to his Fantasy Baseball skills.  He’s also hurt because he perennially seemed to miss 20 or more games so his counting stats don’t quite measure up.  In his 3rd and 4th best years he averaged 67 RBI which simply isn’t Hall of Fame material.

Barry Larkin – The National League version of Trammell:

Miguel Tejada – It surprised me how far away Tejada is from legitimate consideration.  His 2002 and 2004 seasons were great, finishing among the Top 10 batters and either 1st or 2nd at his position.  But his 2005 and 2006 campaigns fall just short as both result in less than 10 FBHOF points, and his 5th best is well off the mark.  He finished 41st among batters in 2003.  He’s off to a great start in 2008 though, so we can’t quite count him out forever.

And now for the actual opening day of the baseball season. The first full slate of games is almost in the books (minus the rainouts.) What I saw:

Verlander was dealing. He easily could’ve gotten the win, if not for…

Alex Gordon. After ranking him extremely high in my top 100, I’ll be watching closely all year.

When Miguel Cabrera hit his homer, he sprinted down the first base line hoping to get a double, which is what he would have had in South Florida. He’s accustomed to the Dolphin Stadium. He’s in for a huge season. And that’s not a waistline crack.

If Gary Sheffield stays healthy, he’s in for a terrific season batting in that lineup. His hands are still quick and he takes walks.

Tigers Announcers, Rod Allen and Mario Impemba, suck.

Nationals Announcers, Don Sutton and Bob Carpenter, are worse. They inexplicably described Pedro Feliz as one of the most underrated players in the league.

Surprisingly, Don’s kid, Darin Sutton, is one of the best announcers.

Nick Markakis has a stolen base. Here comes 30/20. Outside of The Greek God of Roto, the Orioles will be painful to watch this year and I would stay away from all Orioles starters and relievers. Sherrill won’t even be worth it.

Victor Martinez was pulled from the game with a hamstring injury. Am I worried? No, because I didn’t draft V-Mart in any league. Should you be worried if you did draft him? Yup. Someone you might want to think about…

Chris Snyder was batting fifth. He’s looking like a great pickup if he lasts in that spot.

Torre put Posada Russell Martin in the sixth hole. Guess it’s a force of habit for him to bat a catcher sixth. This could be an issue for Martin’s value.

Mark Reynolds might strikeout 200 times this year.

No reason to think Jim Thome can’t hit 35 home runs if he stays healthy.

My better logic says it’s only one day, my gut is telling me Franklin Gutierrez is in for a great year. I already said this, “…Franklin Gutiérrez is 25 and about to get the right field job on one of the best offensive AL teams. Gutiérrez could go 70/20/80/.270/20 in the ninth hole.” Between Gutierrez and Lastings Milledge, I like Gutierrez better.

Johan Santana… Oh, man.

Eric Gagne… Oh, crap.

Kerry Wood… You knew that was coming. Carlos Marmol will be closing by May and end the season with more saves than Wood.

Carlos Zambrano, I’m not too concerned he was pulled because of the forearm cramp. Big Z could find a way to throw 120 pitches with a broken hand.

On one team, I had Pujols and Wainwright. Not thrilled I lost the home run, but I am thrilled there was a home run to lose. You should be too. Though I’m having a hard time seeing the positive in losing the Wainwright start.

Ian Snell will find a way to lose more games than he wins, but he’ll keep the games close. Always gives up a home run at some point.

I’m hoping Cox moves Matt Diaz up and Mark Kotsay down in the order against righties.

Michael Young hit a home run. That projects to 162 on the season. I’d say he falls short by about 150.

Yunel Escobar looked good. Quick wrists, knocking the ball to the opposite field.

Michael Bourn stole 2 bases. Granted, Ronnie Paulino could steal against Bard, but I told you to avoid drafting steals early and grab Bourn late. He might steal 50 this season.

I hate Tom Gordon.