I’ve read a few pieces recently about how stolen bases are down across MLB. As long as steals are a category they will have value, and if steals are indeed down compared to previous years, then they just become that much more valuable. The guy who is currently second in all of baseball in steals, Juan Pierre, is still owned in less than half of the leagues out there. This is kind of confusing to me. If we hit the wire to grab a guy who is in line for saves, or we’ll stream a pitcher hoping for a win, shouldn’t we grab Juan Pierre?

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Here’s Chris Davis‘s ceiling.  And here’s where he’s playing right now:  take your jigsaw, saw out a hole in your ceiling, put a ladder through the hole, climb to the roof, grab onto the tree branch to your right, monkey-climb up to the top and wait twenty seconds.  Okay, now grab onto that passing stork and sit in his mouth for five minutes.  Go ahead, you can check your phone while you’re in there, it won’t bother Storkie.  Now if Storkie has closed his mouth, open it.  Otherwise, just look up… See that basket with Bill James waving down?  In that basket, just offscreen is Chris Davis.  That’s how far he’s playing above his head.  Right now, everything he’s hitting is falling in or going out of the park.  A .330-average, 50+ homers is obviously not a sustainable pace, but to give you an idea of how bad it could get — he hit around .216 in 167 ABs in June and July of last year.  If his strikeout rate goes up to his norm, that’s not far from where it could sit for a few months.  Don’t sell him for a pot of pasta sauce from your neighbor, Buddy Biancalana, but I’d explore offers.   For our four lady readers, Chris(ten) Davis is a Sell in the City.  To reach a better advertising demo, UC Davis, U sell Davis.

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First off, Rudy is safe. We have him in a padded room with only marshmallows to eat. He’s a bit overcome by the absence of color, but it will be a good distraction while Bryce Harper is touch and go. Before we put Rudy where he wouldn’t hurt himself, Rudy said to me, “If Bryce Harper is hurt, will they cancel the rest of the season?” That’s a frown question, bro. Lie down, Rudy. It’ll be okay. Actually, could you lie down with your head hanging off the couch? You’re gonna leave a Soul Glo stain. I’m sure Rudy isn’t the only one feeling a bit woozy hearing Harper hurt himself last night. The entire eye black industry hangs in the balance. He left yesterday’s game with an apparent injury and that turned into an apparent diagnosis of an apparent bad bruise in his apparent side. Thanks for the apparency. This sounds like a day-to-day thing rather than a 15-day DL thing. So the worst thing that may come of this is for the next few days you won’t get as drunk if you take a tequila shot every time someone on Baseball Tonight mentions Harper. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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Today is the first day of the next month in our lives without Giancarlo Stanton. If you want, I’m holding a candlelight vigil in the garbage can behind Stanton’s house. If you come, don’t make too much noise. We aren’t technically supposed to be there. The good news about his hamstring injury is when he’s limping away from us, it’ll be a lot easier to stay exactly 501 feet away. Before he’d backpedal and it was like we were doing the lambada with 501 feet between us. The bad news is I’m writing this post with tears. Hnfcsdcnnn. That was a big, stupid tear that got away from me. Short circuit my keyboard, tears. I plead with you, so I don’t have to continue. I wonder if I can seal envelopes with these tears. That would be turning lemons into lemonade, right? Ow, I just touched my eyes, and now these lemons are burning my eyes. This is the sourest injury news ever. Make the pain go away, alcohol! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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There are always guys that you can grab for some extra speed if you need it, and this week we’ll look at a few more players who are not widely owned but who may be able to contribute some steals to your lineup. After batting .000 last week with my picks of Michael Saunders and Aaron Hicks, we’ll dig a little deeper in the waiver wire pile for some speed. Hicks can’t seem to hit the broad side of a barn, and Saunders, who was off to a great start, decided to play chicken with the right field wall and is now sidelined for about a month. Let’s take a look at this week’s speedsters and let’s hope for some better luck…

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When one guy in a fight is named after a maximum security prison and the other guy is named after something Velma from Scooby Doo says when startled, who do you think is gonna win? Quentin took a pitch off his bicep. Nay. It grazed off his arm. Not just any pitch either. A 3-2 pitch. Are we to believe sweet, innocent, my fantasy ace, Zack Greinke in all his 12-year-old boyish looks would wait to throw a purpose pitch on 3-2? A 3-2 purpose pitch?! That makes sense. Maybe next time he’ll walk him, then toss a pick-off throw low so the 1st baseman has to slap the tag real hard on his leg. A 3-2 purpose pitch?! That’s fertilizer! Get off the ‘roids, Quentin, you have rage issues! So, Greinke has a fractured left collarbone. He’ll be out at least six weeks. My guess for his return is the All-Star break. Why does awful have to happen to my wonderful? Why, deity of choice?! Why?! Someone please tuck me into a sleeping bag of cashmere and rock me back and forth until I fall asleep. Please make this pain go away. Or hurt Quentin. That would help. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

PSYCHE! Before we get into today’s post I just wanted to inform everyone that the Stream-o-Nator has returned. It’s new and improved. Stream-o-Nator, “You know that sounds like a compliment, but it’s really implying I wasn’t that great last year. I’m gruff, but those things hurt my feelings.” So, this year the Stream-o-Nator no longer has numbers 1 thru 1000 (?). It’s now on a dollar scale like you’d find in a draft. A $30 starter is obviously great. A $1 starter is probably awful. Lower your dollar threshold to where it’s appropriate for deeper leagues, i.e., a $15 starter for 12 team leagues would be solid. $10 starter for 15-team leagues would be solid. $2 starter for AL-Only leagues that only use Astro and Indian pitchers is great, etc. Also, SON comes with ownership numbers for 12-team mixed leagues. So, go say thanks to Rudy, it’s all him. Anyway II, here’s the roundup:

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Each week I’ll be looking at some favorable match-ups to help you grab a few extra steals for your fantasy team. Whether you are in a weekly or daily league, looking at weak defensive catchers and strong/aggressive base running teams may help you make decisions as to which players you should start or sit in your hunt for an edge in the stolen base category. Since the 2013 season is only a week old, I’ll use some data from 2012 to get started and give you an idea of what we will be looking for. Just realize that these are only two dimensions that can affect stolen base totals.

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The top 60 outfielders for 2013 fantasy baseball become a sloppy mess towards the end. I almost went with guys like Leonys Martin over, say, Angel Pagan, but that’s upside for upside’s sake over a known entity. Guys near the top of the 80 outfielder post, which will be up next, like Adam Eaton and Leonys Martin are great, but I can’t rank them above guys who have shown 10-15 homer and 20-30 steal skills in the majors, even though I could see owning Eaton or Martin before Pagan. I’ll just wait until Pagan is drafted by someone else and then lay my big, beautiful, blue eyes on upside outfielders. With these outfielders, we’re officially in a crop of players (or maybe that’s crap) that won’t even be drafted in some shallower leagues. If you have only 3 outfielders in your 10-team league, you might never see Michael Brantley drafted. In deeper leagues, where these guys will be drafted, you need to match up needs with wants. I want Ben Revere if I have heavy RBI/power guys on my team. I don’t need him if I have, say, Reyes, Aoki and Ichiro. Oh, and if I had Reyes, Aoki and Ichiro, I might consider fantasy rugby. All of the 2013 fantasy baseball rankings are there. As always, my projections and tiers are included. Anyway, here’s the top 60 outfielders for 2013 fantasy baseball:

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