Fantasy Baseball Advice

Boston Red Sox 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm rankings via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (13) | 2008 (2) | 2007 (9) | 2006 (8) | 2005 (21) | 2004 (23)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [95 – 57] AL East
AAA: [61 – 82] International League
AA: [67 – 74] Eastern League
A+: [67 – 72] Carolina League
A: [73 – 65] South Atlantic League
A(ss): [45 – 30] New York – Pennsylvania League
R: [26 – 27] Gulf League

The Run Down
The junior Evil Empire has no reason to complain this off-season. Spending millions replacing Jason Bay (with Mike Cameron), adding Lackey to sure up their rotation, buying a “better” shortstop (who will regress and make BoSox fans upset) and taking the best defensive third baseman (Adrian Beltre) off the market, Boston has taken its focus a bit off of their farm system. The graduations of Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Jonathan Papelbon and Jacoby Ellsbury in the past has sapped the top end talent out of their system in 2009. Not to mention, the acquisition of Victor Martinez (trading Hagadon, Masterson, and Bryan Price to Cleveland) further emptied some of their depth. Furthermore, the current top prospect prospect (Casey Kelly or Ryan Westmoreland) going into 2010 is still a season or more away from helping in the majors. However, if Keith Law is to be believed, the Red Sox have the second overall farm system in 2010. This is based mainly on Boston having seven top 100 prospects. They have some nice arms with high upside, and some toolsy fielders, but many of those players are young and still need to prove themselves. 2010 will be a season of truth for several prospects in the minors, not to mention if they can keep up with their rival Evil Empire.

Graduating Prospects
#4 – (RHP) Dan Baird

Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Fox
Pitchers – #6 Casey Kelly; Randor Bierd; #26 Richard Lentz; Chris Province; Dustin Richardson
Hitters – #15 (C) Luis Exposito; Jose Iglesias; #13 Ryan Kalish

Players of Interest for 2010
Hitters
#1 – Lars Anderson | 1B | AA | 21 | .233/.328/.345 | 447 AB | 23 2B | 9 HR | .112 ISO | 114:63 K:BB | .296 BABIP | 54.8 GB% | 13 LD% | 32.2 FB%
Lars struggled more than words can express in 2009. His ground ball, line drive and fly ball rates are close to his career rates (54.2 GB%, 15.9 LD% | 29.5 FB% in 1613 AB), but his batting average on balls in play went from a career level of .351 to .296. These numbers would project him to be below average power hitting first baseman. He battled through a hamstring injury in the late summer causing him to miss some playing time at the end of the season. Furthermore, he started the season with a back injury that he played through. Many ‘perts are giving him a mulligan on the 2009 season, but he very well come have met his ceiling, or nearing his ceiling. The mid-summer months were his best, but nothing impressive from a first baseman. He’ll be 22 in 2010 and still has the potential to shine. Don’t be shocked to see him back at Double-A in 2010.

#13 Ryan Kalish | RF | A+/AA | 21 | .279/.364/.457 | 506 AB | 24 2B | 18 HR | .178 ISO | 21/6 SB/CS | 107:68 K:BB | .317 BABIP | 47 GB% | 14.8 LD% | 38.2 FB%
Kalish stayed in High-A long enough to tally 115 at-bats and showing that he needed a promotion. Upon reaching Double-A, the homers started coming (13 in 391 AB). He didn’t hit the ball hard as often as I would like (league average LD% is 18%), the walks are fairly impressive. With the potential to be a 20/20 hitter, Kalish looks like a Grady Sizemore in the making (and he played in CF at Double-A as Josh Reddick was playing RF). Look for him to start the year in Triple-A.

#5 – Josh Reddick | RF | AA | 22 | .277/.352/.520 | 256 AB | 17 2B | 14 HR | .243 ISO | 62:30 K:BB | .310 BABIP | 36.2 GB% | 14.4 LD% | 49.5 FB%
Reddick did have 71 at-bats at Triple-A Pawtucket, but they were utterly terrible as his slash line shows .127/.190/.183. Today, Reddick and Kalish are, and should be, equally ranked. Reddick has the potential for more power, especially with a much higher fly ball rate (49.5% versus 38.2%). If he didn’t struggle this year at Triple-A, it could have been feasible that he started in the big leagues this year. He has a rocket of an arm (41 outfield assists pre-2009) and adequate defense. With J.D. Drew and Mike Cameron aging, the Red Sox have some nice in-house outfield options. He should also be in Triple-A to start the 2010 season.

Pitchers
#2 – Michael Bowden | RHP | AAA | 22 | 6.3 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 126 1/3 IP | 3.13 ERA | 4.18 FIP | 1.21 WHIP | .8 HR/9 | .260 BABIP | 31.1 GB% | 19.5 LD% | 44.6FB%
Scouting the Unknown lays outs Michael Bowden pretty well. My opinions of him haven’t changed since mid-July. Matter-of-fact, looking at his peripheral stats, I like him even less, especially with the terrible ground ball rate. The AL East hitters will feast on Mr. Bowden. With the acquisition of Lackey and a loaded farm system of pitchers will make Bowden return to Triple-A to start the 2010 season. He’ll be there until an injury or a trade.

#7 – Junichi Tazawa | RHP| AA | 23 | 8.1 K/9 | 2.4 BB/9 | 98 IP | 2.57 ERA | 3.44 FIP | 1.08 WHIP | .7 HR/9 | .284 BABIP | 43.7 GB% | 13 LD% | 39.6 FB%
Another Red Sox player that received a Scouting the Unknown last summer, and if you do a quick search within the Razzball website you’ll see several poor Major League outings. He also pitched 11 1/3 innings at Triple-A and performed well. Tazawa is still another full year away from making a major impact at the major league level. Tazawa has the skill set to thrive in the majors.

#28 – Stephen Fife | RHP | A/A+ | 22 | 8.9 K/9 | 1.4 BB/9 | 87 1/3 IP | 3.71 ERA | 3.30 FIP | 1.19 WHIP | .8 HR/9 | .317 BABIP | 55.5 GB% | 14.7 LD% | 25 FB%
This is a bit of a stretch to place him in this section. There are definitely other pitchers the Red Sox could call upon in 2010 if there are bullpen issues. However, Fife generates more ground balls with his low to mid 90′s fastball than the US Government generates debt. With a slurvy slider and an average circle change-up, Fife could quickly rise through the minors if he continues to keep the ball on the ground. With another season under his belt, the Red Sox may try to make him into a starter. If this happens, he could be Aaron Cook, the 2009 Joel Pineiro, or even a Roy Halladay. The most likely outcome would be the Aaron Cook end of the spectrum. Serviceable, but nothing exciting.

Honorable Mentions
These players are in this section because they aren’t as likely to make an impact in 2010 for the Red Sox on the major league level. However, many of these prospects are their top rated prospects.

Hitters
#8 – Ryan Westmoreland | CF | A(ss) | 19 | .296/.401/.484 | 223 AB | 15 2B | 7 HR | .188 ISO | 19/0 SB/CS | 49:38 K:BB | .353 BABIP | 46.9 GB% | 16.9 LD% | 36.3 FB%
Keith Law has him ranked as the Red Sox number two prospect in 2010, and John Sickels has him ranked number one. He has the power to hit 20 to 25, and possibly even 30 homers with 25 to 30 steals in a full season. His plate discipline is stellar, his defense adequate, and the only concern is his injury history. Prior to playing in the minors he had shoulder surgery, thus the reason why he only has 223 at-bats this year. He’ll start in Single-A or possibly even High-A to start the 2010 season. He’ll be talked about more in 2011 and potentially playing in the big leagues in the late summer of 2011. However, a more reasonable expectation would have him playing in the majors in 2012.

#21 – Derrik Gibson | 2B/SS | A(ss) | 19 | 255 AB | 15 2B | 0 HR | .090 ISO | 28/5 SB/CS | 4238 K:BB | .351 BABIP | 60.3 GB% | 14.7 LD% | 24.6 FB%
He plays great defense, control the strike zone really well, but will struggle to hit for much power. Could be Adam Everett with some speed, or Neifi Perez – a slap hitter with little fantasy value save SAGNOF.

Ryan Lavarnway | C | A | 22 | .285/.367/.540 | 506 AB | 36 2B | 21 HR | .255 ISO | 113:50 K:BB | .349 BABIP | 40.2 GB%| 16.4 LD% | 43.1 FB%
I couldn’t find much information about Lavarnway, but my eyes tell me an ISO of .255 is pretty darn impressive. Power doesn’t just appear out of nowhere. Unless your name is Marcus Giles. Lavarnway has a long way to become truly relevant. He’ll need to repeat this type of performance for another two years for him to have a shot at the major league level. Having depth at catcher is extremely important in any organization. High-A should continue to help his numbers, but Double-A will be his first real test.

Pitchers
#6 – Casey Kelly | RHP | A/A+ | 20 | 7.0 K/9 | 1.5 BB/9 | 95 IP | 2.08 ERA | 3.04 FIP | .85 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | .230 BABIP | 51.6 GB% | 10.7 LD% | 33.8 FB%
Aided by an extremely low BABIP (.230), Kelly’s numbers were inflated (technically, that would be the correct word). Once a shortstop with stellar defense and a terrible bat, the Red Sox have committed to making Kelly a pitcher instead of a two-way player. His fastball has late life and reaches 92 mph. His curveball has a sharp bite and a changeup in the works. Projected to be a number two or three starter, Kelly will get tested in 2010 while at Double-A. If he can keep his good ground ball rate, he’ll progress quickly through the mid-minors. However, the numbers should regress a bit due to that extremely low BABIP. It would be scary to think of where he could be right now if he, and Boston, would have made him a pitcher to begin his career.

#11 – Stolmy Pimentel | RHIP | A | 19 | 7.9 K/9 | 2.2 BB/9 | 117 2/3 IP | 3.82 ERA | 3.91 FIP | 1.39 WHIP | .9 HR/9 | .343 BABIP | 39.5 GB% | 15.9 LD% | 37.3 FB%
Considered to have the best changeup in the Boston farm system, Stolmy still has room to improve his average fastball (91 to 92 mph) with very few qualities attached to this offering. There is little life on his fastball. His curve is a show-me pitch with the ability to become an average pitch. He should reach Double-A next year if all goes well.

——-
And no, I didn’t forget about Anthony Rizzo. He’ll get a Scouting the Unknown later in the 2010 season. So commentators do not worry, I won’t forget about him.

With the All-Star break, many of us don’t know how to kill the time at work this week. Hopefully, this week’s StU can help break some of your boredom and help you procrastinate some more.

Michael Bowden | SP | Boston Red Sox | DOB: 9/9/1986 | 6-3 | 215 lbs |Bats/Throws: Right | BOS #2 ranked prospect according to Baseball America
The Cube: Control (92) | K-rating (90) | Efficiency (98)

Many of you have patiently waited to read about this BoSox fan favorite. Matter of fact, there is so much hype surrounding Bowden that you would swear he was the second coming of Greg Maddux, or maybe even Jesus. It’s easy to blame the east coast bias for the aura that surrounds their prospects and sports teams, and well, that’s exactly what kind of blame this hype deserves.

His fastball sits between 89 and 93 mph with good movement that will top out at 95. His fastball is surprisingly effective because of his “deceptive” arm angle according to Baseball America writers. He also possesses a hard 12-6 curve, and a circle change that is hard for lefties to hit. Scouts rave about the curve, but have mentioned that at times he lets it loop more like a Zito curve. The top thing that the scouts lavish over is his impeccable control. Personally, how they talk reminds me of Brad Radke, a former Minnesota Twin who was known for his ability to eat innings and rarely walk a batter. The trouble with his style of pitching though is he’s a fly ball pitcher, and his stuff isn’t overpowering/dominating. A fly ball pitcher in the AL East, especially now with the shorter Yankee right field porch, smells like trouble. He is starting to look more like a mediocre pitcher than a top of the line pitcher like the hype indicates.

The only other knock on him is his quirky delivery, but I tend to think these quirks add to the character of the pitcher (a la – Lincecum, Roy Halladay even has a quirky delivery). Unless it places tons of strain on the elbow, which it doesn’t, and he throws lots of hard breaking pitches, I think he should be fine. Will he be a top of the rotation pitcher? I doubt it. Do I think he is a good pitcher? Sure.

Is this bashing necessary? Well, I will let you determine that:

’06 (A, A+) 9.7 K/9 | 2.6 BB/9 | .7 HR/9 | 1112 2/3 IP | 3.75 ERA | 1.17 Whip | .377 BABIP
’07 (A+,AA) 8.1 K/9| 2.6 BB/9 | .6 HR/9 | 142 2/3 IP | 3.34 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | .292 BABIP
’08 (AA,AAA) 8.1 K/9 | 1.8 BB/9 | .6 HR/9 | 144 1/3 IP | 2.62 ERA | .98 WHIP| .295 BABIP
’09 (AAA) 6.1 K/9 | 3 BB/9 | 1.1 HR/9 | 77 IP | 3.39 ERA | 1.18 WHIP | .253 BABIP
**Stats as of July 5th

Those really aren’t eye popping numbers, except for possibly last year. However, those are essentially his numbers from AA, as he only pitched 40 innings in AAA in ’08. This year’s stats show more of the real pitcher he is, except for maybe his diminished control. The overall numbers are helped by a pitcher friendly BABIP. The reduced K/9, increase in HR/9 and BB/9 raise a red flag, or at least a flag that warrant more reserved predictions of his talent at the major league levels.

He should round out to be a better than average pitcher, but no higher than a number three starter or an above average back end of the rotation pitcher. If he was called up today, I would only want him because he pitches for a winning ball club, AKA- vulturing some wins. Other than that, I don’t want to touch him with Pesky’s (foul) pole.

Jason Heyward | OF | Atlanta Braves | DOB: 8/9/1989 | 6-4 | 220 lbs | Bats/Throws: Left | ATL #2 ranked prospect according to Baseball America
The Cube: Power (71) | Speed (62) | Contact (61) | Patience (54)

Hidden behind a talented farm system down in Atlanta, Heyward has quietly produced stellar numbers since his rookie year at A ball. Having drawn comparisons to Willie McCovey and Dave Parker, this young outfielder has all five tools that scouts drool over. He’s athletic in that large frame, actually knows how to play defense (a plus because that might help him raise through the minors faster), and has the patience of a hitter much older than him. If you want to compare his Cube numbers to professional MLB players think of James Loney, Mark Grace, and Conor Jackson (but as it has already been established, this isn’t the most accurate way to compare a player as it just compiles his numbers and rates them against his peers at the same level he is at). However, Jason should prove to be more than those players.

The Braves drafted him 14th in the 2007 draft, and some teams might have been better off drafting him instead (however, it was the ’07 draft that had Price taken number 1 followed by Moustakas (#1 ranked in KC’s system), Josh Vitters (#1 CHC), Wieters (#1 BAL), Ross Detwiler (#2 WAS), Matthew LaPorta (#2 CLE), Mad Bum (#1 SF) , Jarrod Parker (#1 ARI), Phillip Aumont (#1 SEA) – though not in order, but those are some nice names. However, Pittsburgh took Daniel Moskos (#19) – and no, that is not a typo) ahead of Wieters and cost their GM his job). Needless to say, that was nice top of the draft for many years, and we’ll have to wait to see how they all pan out. This is not to say Heyward is a lock to be an all-star for years to come, but he does have tremendous amounts of talent and potential to be a 20 to 25 homer right fielder who hits for good average, gets on base, drives in his fair share of runs, and steals an occasional base. Here are his numbers and slash lines as of July 5th,

’08 (A, A+) .316/.381/.473 (.854 OPS) in 471 AB (11 HR/56 RBI/6 SB)
@A – 9.8 B%/16.5K%/.160 ISO/.368 BABIP in 449AB
@A+ – 8.3/18.2/.091/.222 in 22AB
’09 (A+, AA) .302/.379/.531 (.910 OPS) in 192 AB (10/32/1 – 12 2B)
@A+ – 10 B%/15.9 K%/ .222 ISO/ .309 BABIP 189 AB
(Side note that I just realized, in Double-A he hasn’t K’d yet as of July 11th, in 26 Abs)

Those are pretty decent numbers actually. He hasn’t hit the number of homers some other prospects have, but he hits for average and gap power as of now which should translate into more homers in the future as he shortens his swing and fills out his body. One knock that some scouts have is that he is too patient of a hitter and often times doesn’t hit or swing at the best pitch for him to drive. I am not sure how I feel about this, but really, this should be a good thing. Some hitters don’t know how not to swing. * cough * K-Davis * cough * This should be something that he and his hitting coaches should be able to change. He has the work ethic for this to probably happen, and a positive note about a highly tout prospect – he is quite humble. Something I think we all can appreciate.

Don’t expect to see him this year until September, if at all. Next spring the Braves should probably give him an extended look, but he probably will start the year in AA or possibly AAA. He will need a bit more seasoning next year, but a May/June 2010 call up could be on the way.