So with a continuation from previous post about fantasy baseball middle relievers today will be the senior circuit and the National League. I personally tend to notice that it is easier to stream or pick up relievers from the NL because of the way they substitute pitchers in games more frequently. Maybe it’s just me, you can agree to disagree if you choose, but I will always be right regardless of what you say. Here’s some pitchers that get holds for 2012 fantasy baseball:
NL East
New York – Everyone handcuffed Frank Frank with Rauch as well they should, but in the holds department Tim Byrdak and Bobby Parnell are the main set-up to the set-up guys if that makes any type of sense.
Philadelphia – Antonio Bastardo was the early on favorite to garner most of the holds attention. Retread Chad Qualls seems to be the go-to guy in the early going. Not a great situation, in general, as Philly’s starters average almost 8 innings a start.
Miami – This to me is the place to come and get a nice mixed daiquiri and maybe an unheralded RP. Steve Chisek, Edward Mujica and Randy Choate form a nice triumvirate of relievers in front of Bell. Out of the 3, I would take Chisek.
Washington – Tyler Clippard is the guy most owned, he has had it rough in the beginning, but is a good bet for 30 plus here. Sean Burnett has been turned into an everyday guy to a more situational guy and it suits him. Craig Stammen is the sleeper guy, showing great K rate and a good source for vulture wins.
Atlanta – Everyday Jonny is owned or should be in most formats. Kris Medlen and Eric O’Flaherty form a nice righty/lefty setup in front of him.
NL Central
St Louis – The more I watch St Louis, the more I am starting to like Mitchell Boggs as the guy in front of Motte. Marc Rzepczynski is a fill-in for the tough lefties and both guys should finish above 25 Holds here.
Milwaukee – K-Rod is, well, K-Rod… Shows signs of being unhittable and then looks like a tether ball. Jose Veras is a nice option to have and has pitched semi-effectively to date. Kameron Loe is the sleeper to watch here.
Cincinnati – Aroldis Chapman is all the rage, like jean jackets and IOU sweatshirts, and, to be honest, he should be starting. Logan Ondrusek has done a stand-up job in the absence of Nick Masset.
Chicago – Yuck, can I just skip them? Wood is hurt. Rafael Dolis is young and spotty at best. Definitely a bullpen to avoid. Newly acquired Michael Bowden could become useful, so monitor it closely
Houston – Outside of Wilton Lopez, Fernando Rodriguez and David Carpenter are more names for NL-only, then mixed variety.
Pittsburgh – They can’t score so how are they supposed to have a lead. Do they even need a bullpen? Juan Cruz did a great job filling in at closer for Joel Hanrahan and is rosterable based on handcuff. Sleeper here is Jason Grilli, nice 10/1 K/bb rate in the early going.
NL West
Los Angeles – Kenley Jansen is most likely the closer of the future (or of right now). Josh Lindblom is the guy no one knows, but is climbing up Hold ranks for me.
San Diego – What happened? San Diego used to be the maven for relief pitching and they have three, count it, three holds as of me writing this. Cashner is the guy to own because of the inevitable trade of Street. You can pick any other reliever in the bullpen for the Friars and their numbers are excellent just no counting stats yet. Monitor close as 3-4 guys have great ratios and will eventually put up holds in bunches.
San Francisco – Well, Romo is still the man here, Casilla is the one turning out the lights and Clay Hensley and Javier Lopez are the guys that you want for holds after Romo. Just like Bochy drew it up in his ginormous head. Don’t forget about Affeldt here, that’s all I am saying.
Colorado – It’s the Rex Brothers and Matt Belisle show here as it seems they pitch everyday for the Rockies. Guys to keep an eye on are Matt Reynolds and Josh Roenicke.
Arizona – Bryan Shaw keeps stealing David Hernandez’s thunder by getting saves. Both are decent options for holds also. Though if Putz comes to shove, I think Hernandez is the closer in waiting. Deeper leagues can look at Craig Breslow.
In the doubleheader, Nate Schierholtz went 6-for-10 with a homer, 2 runs, 3 RBIs, steal and back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back-etc. starts from Bochy, go ahead with your big head self! “This is the year Schierholtz breaks out! And fill up my Merlot!” That’s every Giants fan for the last three years. Then within a few weeks, he’s usually hurt. If Schierholtz is indeed German for pantyhose, he sure gets rips in them quickly. Maybe he should bathe in clear nail polish. (See, ladies, Grey doesn’t forget about you.) Schierholtz has power, he just needs to stay healthy. For now, I’d pick him up in all leagues. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Tim Lincecum – Good news: 5 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks. Bad news: 4 hits, 5 walks, 108 pitches. Reminds me of my stat lines when playing backyard Wiffle Ball. Maybe Timmy needs to throw to a Pitchback instead of a Posey.
Mike Gonzalez – Boras said Gonzalez is expected to sign with a club in the next ten days. Boras better get a deal fast before the terrible closer bubble bursts.
Lorenzo Cain – Expected to come off the DL on Friday. Make room in your fantasy cupboard for Cain…Sugar!
Josh Donaldson – After starting the year on a sub-.100 anti-tear, the A’s brushed him aside like the ABC makeup lady used to do to his grandfather’s hair. He will be sorely missed by opposing pitchers, Fantasy Razzball managers, and frustrated owners in 2-catcher leagues who hoped he could outperform the Barajii of the league.
Adrian Beltre – Should return soon as the MRI showed his leg was normal. Right above the foot and below the hip.
Francisco Liriano – Twins will skip his next start. Guess that’s easier and more legal than getting John McDonald to drop a knee on his head.
Josh Willingham – Out until Friday on maternity leave. A lesson in the birds and the bees brought to you by Grey Albright: Nine months ago there was a Drillingham with a throbbing lardon, asking to porker and now there’s a baby back.
Derek Holland – 6 IP, 7 ER, 13 baserunners, 1 K. An embarrassment to pitchers and mustaches everywhere.
Josh Hamilton – 1-for-4 with his 8th homer as everyone who didn’t draft Hamilton continues to have their balloon Burrst.
Hunter Pence – Missed yesterday with a sore shoulder. Chase Utley scoffed and raised him a sore everything.
Michael Bowden – The key piece in the Byrd trade is headed to the bullpen as predicted here first after reading it elsewhere. He was a top pitching prospect once, but had a pedestrian K-rate as a starter in AAA so they turned him into a closer where he showed some signs of dominance (10+ K/9). Nothing to see right now, but, if he has some early success and Marmol is traded (as I think he will be), Bowden could be saving games by the end of the year.
Cody Ross – 2 HRs yesterday and another one on Saturday (his last game). Hot schmotato!
Daniel Bard – Shut the door yesterday in the 8th inning, but Bobby Valentine said that there’s no “great temptation” to have Bard stay in the bullpen. In related news, Valentine is going for psychological testing.
Jake Peavy – 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks. Now has an ERA of 1.88. I told you to draft him in the preseason, I drafted him in the preseason and then I dropped him. Why do you make me rue? I don’t wish to rue. I’m fine with no ruing. I’m stirring butter and flour in my soul!
Alex Rios – 3-for-5, hitting .360 on the season and hitting about .500 over the last week. Cust kayin’.
Dontrelle Willis – The O’s confirmed that they signed Willis. This was hilarious to me. I imagine the O’s front office said, “Dah! Yes, we signed Willis. Stop mocking us!”
Chris Capuano – 7 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners, 5 Ks. Is it the Year of the Cap? Not probably, no. But he could have end of the rotation appeal in mixed leagues and be one of those guys that’s cheap in NL-Only leagues that can really help you.
Michael Pineda – Headed for an MRI on Tuesday. Here’s the Cliff Notes of a book I wrote (besides this one). The name of this other book, “Signs of Trouble for Your Fantasy Starter.” Chapter One: If your starter is shut down and almost a month later they need an MRI, it’s not good.
CC Sabathia – 8 IP, 4 ER, 8 baserunners, 8 Ks as he has an ERA of 5.27. Without looking at our Player Rater, I’m guessing his FIP is much lower.
Derek Jeter – 4-for-5, 2 runs, 1 RBI, batting .411. So is he an Early Bird Special or a (Fill-in blank for term of older player who has a renaissance year. Regarding that term that I asked for with Beltran last week. I liked Ponce De Leon-g Balls, Hologram Tupac and Dead Cat Bounce, but Rudy nixed them.)?
Dillon Gee – 6 2/3 IP, 7 ER. He alternated good start/bad start last year and he’s continuing this trend. It’s pretty uncanny. It’s like his job is to rope in and frustrate streamers and he takes his job very seriously.
Jason Bay – Left yesterday’s game with bruised ribs, which is nowhere near as delicious as braised ribs.
Hideki Matsui – Rumored to be signing a minor league deal with the Rays. The Rays hope he still has a little left in the tank if they need a lefty DH. Matsui just wants a job and heard good things about their potato chips.
Brandon Morrow – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks. Can we get Scooby on the Case of Morrow’s Missing Ks? He only had 2 starts all last year of 3 Ks or less and he’s already had 3 starts this year like that and his other start was a 4 K effort. His velocity didn’t look bad last night, but I’m starting to get concerned. A guy who walks as many as he does (though he didn’t yesterday), isn’t very cute without Ks.
Krispie Young – Won’t return when his DL stint is up in 15 days. With a ligament tear in his shoulder? Really? Here I thought a ligament tear was a good thing. Just when you think you got the world figured out. Wow. File that in the surpriseapedia.
Wade Miley – 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 7 Ks vs. the Phillies (Just think, Phils fans, in another 25 years your team will be good again, not like the Red Sox who have to wait 80 years.), and Bauer’s call-up just took two steps back with this Miley effort. The key word with Miley is serviceable. That makes for good real world pitching and only matchups appeal in fantasy.
Justin Upton – 2-for-3, 2 runs, 2 RBIs as he hit his first homer. Formally document it: In the nick of time, Justin.
Eric Hosmer – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in 3 games and 4th on the year. He’s still hitting .203, but I bet he’s about to go on a tear and be hitting near .260 by this time next week. Get it, Hosmer, get it!
Tony Campana – 1-for-1 with 2 steals. He stole 2nd base so fast that he actually overran it, ran all the way around the globe, causing time to rewind, and allowing him to steal 2nd again.
Jason Motte – 2/3 IP, 2 ER and the blown save. What a follower! Ooh, all the cool closers are blowing games so he figured he would too.
Bill Hall – Signing a deal with the Orioles to replace Josh Bell on the Triple-A roster. Bell to Hall? This is a big score for the equipment manager.
Let Kate Upton know that Philip Humber is now allowed entrance into the Perfect Club as he retired 27 straight Mariners (here’s a tip: don’t get too close to Dallas Braden in the sauna). That’s only the 21st perfect game in history – surprisingly, as you would’ve thought at least that many pitchers would have thrown perfect games against the Mariners last year. Kudos to those of you who streamed, Humber. A few of our comments on Saturday went like this, “Grabbed Humber for a stream cuz there was no one else, then dropped him before I even realized he pitched a perfect game.” Nice Humberbrag! Before you feel too proud of yourself for being the first to pick up Humber, just remember that the last two guys to throw a perfect game in the AL are Dallas Braden and Mark Buehrle. The only difference between those non-dominating lefties and Humber is that Humber throws right handed and his first name is what I used to call the guy at the gas station when I was a jerky teenager. You know, I gave him an aptronym. Consider this perfect game less a reminder to pick up Phil Humber, but more a reminder that it’s generally a safe bet to stream a pitcher at Seattle. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:
Marlon Byrd – Traded to the Red Sox as the player to be named later for an old bet between Epstein and John Henry. Teach Epstein to say, “I bet in eight years the greatest band in the world will be Hoobastank.” Marlon Byrd is a marginal power, not great speed guy that has more real world value, like everyone who’s ever been on The Real World. Think 12 homers, 5 steals. If that excites you, take your meds, you’re excited too easily.
Michael Bowden – The once interesting prospect pitcher went the other way. You can take that both ways, i.e., he’s no longer interesting and he’s headed to the Cubs (and presumably middle relief). I wouldn’t be surprised if Epstein knows something that we don’t know (okay, probably a lot of something) in regards to Bowden, but for now there’s nothing to see here.
Tony Campana – Finally, we’re done with real world value where things matter like bill-paying and not getting annoyed when someone refills the toilet paper so it unrolls under. Put it over so it rolls out! *breathe, Grey, breathe* With the trade of Byrd, Campana was recalled and started in center yesterday where he went 1-for-2. Campana can steal 30 bases in 300 ABs. He’s crazy fast. He just ran into your cubicle, refilled your toner and ran out without you seeing him.
Jarrod Parker – Fat Jonah announced that Parker will be called up by the A’s for Wednesday’s game. Last year, Parker was pretty pedestrian, but that might’ve been him still regaining his control from Tommy John surgery. I just thought of something: If I had something that was terminal and got to “Make a Wish,” my wish would be to have Tommy John surgery performed by Tommy John. If Parker strikes out over 8 per nine as he’s done in the minors, gets ground balls and regains his control, he’s the best starter you’re picking up off waivers right now. If he fails to translate his Ks and ground balls, then you have an A’s starter that could roofie you.
Jemile Weeks – 0-for-4, now batting .197. Where’s your manners, Jemile? If he were sucking this bad, Rickie would at least have the decency to get hurt.
Alfredo Aceves – I had this friend from high school, let’s call him Brian, cause that was his name. Brian got a job at a hot dog place that served the best chili I’ve ever had. So Brian got a job at this hot dog place and decided to start putting pubic hair into the chili. Word spread pretty fast and the hot dog place that was there for 25 years was out of business within 6 months. Alfredo Aceves is my friend Brian and that chili is the Red Sox’s closer job.
Daniel Bard – Seems slightly crazy that everyone, except the Red Sox knew Bard should be in the bullpen, but now he’s there. He just went from K to F or M. It might be temporary as his start was rained out, but I’d still grab him in the non-sexual way.
Roy Oswalt – Red Sox and Cards are reaching out to him to pitch for them. Razzball got an exclusive peek at the negotiations! “Roy, have you ever heard of my friend, Benjamin Franklin?” The negotiator pulls out a hundred. Oswalt shakes his head. “Maybe you’ve heard of my friend, John Deere?” Oswalt perks up.
Sergio Santos – To the DL with what I’m calling, “I told you not to draft him in the preseason!” Grab Francisco Cordero immediately. Though, I imagine unless you’re in a league with yourself and nine teams you own under different aliases, he’s gone. Though II: The Return of Though (that the critics dubbed: Why do they keep making Though’s): If you’re in a league against nine of yourself, I appreciate you still reading Razzball even if you might not need quote-unquote advice.
Francisco Cordero – Got the ugly save yesterday after giving up a run. Hey, it’s like he’s been closing all year!
Danny Duffy – 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 10 baserunners (5 BBs), 5 Ks vs. the Blue Jays. Kinda felt this start coming. Still like Duffy’s promise, but he looks about as safe to own as Filthy Sanchez and Hochevar. Imagine the sun is made of walks and their wings are made of Ks.
Wei-Yin Chen – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks. Ugh, just having a real hard time advising to pick up O’s starters, especially one that had declining Ks before coming to this country. I’d let someone else gamble.
Giancarlo Stanton – He says his knee is better. From his mouth to God’s ears… Which I guess is him talking to himself.
Nick Swisher – Had a lovely time in Boston. 5-for-9 with 2 HRs and 7 RBIs. Then the lemon butter dill sauce on the Dover Sole at Legal Seafood effectively masked the spit flavoring added by Chef Sully.
Mark Teixeira – M-Teix usually likes Aprils as much as Garfield likes Mondays but May seemed to come a fortnight early this year. After hitting his 1st HR of the year on Thursday, Teixeira hit 2 HRs and a double on Saturday – including an opposite-field HR as a lefty. Our little M-Teix is all May’d up.
Michael Pineda – Had a setback during his rehab, which Girardi deemed “not good.” I’ll add “indeed.”
Adrian Beltre – Adrian’s rocky relationship with his hamstrings continues as he strained one on Saturday. Beltre is headed for an MRI on Monday, and I wouldn’t be surprised if his hamstring says some wet blanket bullcrap like, “It’s suicide. You’ve seen your leg, you know how fragile it is….you can’t run!” Then the hamstring complains at Whole Foods when it has to pay full price for a Coppola wine.
Josh Hamilton – 3-for-3, 1 run, 2 RBIs and a slam & legs. Can’t he party with Kinsler and some 19-year-old girls in a bathroom stall every preseason?
Francisco Liriano – 5 IP, 5 ER with a 11+ ERA on the year. To rope fantasy baseballers back in, he’s due for a six unearned run, twelve walk no-hitter.
Frank Francisco – The closerousel continues as Frank Frank gets the dreaded vote of confidence. When a manager, says someone is still their closer that gives them about five days before they’re no longer the closer. I’d pick up Rauch, but wear back support he looks heavy.
Daniel Hudson – To the DL with a shoulder impingement, which is the worst kind of after-start ‘ment a pitcher can get. He’s without a timetable; that’s a nice way to say, “Shizz just got real.” The good news, the MRI revealed no structural damage, but the MRI was at 2-for-1 Ruby Tuesday’s happy hour yesterday. Between Hudson and Collmenter, the Diamondbacks’ stalling on you-know-who just got accelerated. If you don’t know you-know-who, hint: he’s the next blurb.
Trevor Bauer – The Bauer countdown has officially begun. Or said again with a whisper scream as he’s distracted because his daughter is in danger. Scott has Bauer 9th on the top 25 fantasy baseball prospects list. There, he compares him to Lincecum. I think he meant that as a compliment. In 12 team mixed leagues, it’s time to start stashing Bauer. I think he’s up within the month, but could depend on Hudson.
Gerardo Parra – 2-for-4 with a slam & legs. And here we thought it was Krispie. The D-Backs’ centerfield position is an unknown location in Tibet with mystical powers.
Brennan Boesch – 1-for-5 with his 2nd homer. I feel the tide starting to go out on Boesch in the comments. I get it, he’s been terrible so far, but in most leagues I’d try to hold out. He’s in such a great spot in a lineup and Leyland Ron Popeil’s his lineup about as good as anyone.
Drew Smyly – 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks. Okay, you have to own him at this point. He has nearly a K per inning and a 1.13 ERA. I do think the bottom could fall out at any time. Or at least fall relatively back to earth.
Kyle Blanks – To have season-ending surgery on his shoulder. He didn’t blame the injury on carrying around David Eckstein in a bjorn.
Anthony Bass – 6 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks. Hodgepadre!
Juan Francisco – Homered yesterday as he started at 3rd. Too bad Glass Chipper isn’t due for a setback for another three days.
Jon Jay – Heading to St. Louis for tests on his shoulder. No word if he’s being transported by Clydesdale, but I think that’s the only method of transportation in St. Louis, so maybe it’s implied.
Kyle Lohse – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks. Kinda excited for May just so I don’t have to keep talking about this schmohawk in a positive light.
Andrew McCutchen – Batting .351 in the three hole and has 2 RBIs on the year. Guys and (4 ladies), your Pittsburgh Pirates!
Ryan Zimmerman – He was scratched on Saturday (aaah…) and then Sunday was rained out, but he expects his shoulder to be up to snuff for Tuesday. Bob Crane would say that’s hot.
Chad Billingsley – 3 1/3 IP, 5 ER vs. the Astros. Look in the mirror. See that person? They got sucked in by Billingsley.
Freddy Sanchez – Will start Monday his rehab, I said, “Whatever, whatever, whatever.”
Cliff Lee – The Adverb is off to the DL with an oblique injury following his 10 inning scoreless start. Little known fact – Jack Morris had to ice his moustache for a solid week after that memorable 10 inning World Series start. ObLeeque had a strained abdomen with the Mariners in 2010 that cost him a month – hopeful Lee this will be limited to missing 3 starts.
Chris Narveson – Chris Capuano 2.0 looks done for the year with a rotator cuff injury. On the bright side, he now has more time to sell insurance to the fine folks of Punxsutawney.
Boston Red Sox 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm rankings via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (13) | 2008 (2) | 2007 (9) | 2006 (8) | 2005 (21) | 2004 (23)
Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [95 – 57] AL East
AAA: [61 – 82] International League
AA: [67 – 74] Eastern League
A+: [67 – 72] Carolina League
A: [73 – 65] South Atlantic League
A(ss): [45 – 30] New York – Pennsylvania League
R: [26 – 27] Gulf League
The Run Down
The junior Evil Empire has no reason to complain this off-season. Spending millions replacing Jason Bay (with Mike Cameron), adding Lackey to sure up their rotation, buying a “better” shortstop (who will regress and make BoSox fans upset) and taking the best defensive third baseman (Adrian Beltre) off the market, Boston has taken its focus a bit off of their farm system. The graduations of Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Jonathan Papelbon and Jacoby Ellsbury in the past has sapped the top end talent out of their system in 2009. Not to mention, the acquisition of Victor Martinez (trading Hagadon, Masterson, and Bryan Price to Cleveland) further emptied some of their depth. Furthermore, the current top prospect prospect (Casey Kelly or Ryan Westmoreland) going into 2010 is still a season or more away from helping in the majors. However, if Keith Law is to be believed, the Red Sox have the second overall farm system in 2010. This is based mainly on Boston having seven top 100 prospects. They have some nice arms with high upside, and some toolsy fielders, but many of those players are young and still need to prove themselves. 2010 will be a season of truth for several prospects in the minors, not to mention if they can keep up with their rival Evil Empire.
Graduating Prospects
#4 – (RHP) Dan Baird
Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Fox
Pitchers – #6 Casey Kelly; Randor Bierd; #26 Richard Lentz; Chris Province; Dustin Richardson
Hitters – #15 (C) Luis Exposito; Jose Iglesias; #13 Ryan Kalish
Players of Interest for 2010 Hitters #1 – Lars Anderson | 1B | AA | 21 | .233/.328/.345 | 447 AB | 23 2B | 9 HR | .112 ISO | 114:63 K:BB | .296 BABIP | 54.8 GB% | 13 LD% | 32.2 FB%
Lars struggled more than words can express in 2009. His ground ball, line drive and fly ball rates are close to his career rates (54.2 GB%, 15.9 LD% | 29.5 FB% in 1613 AB), but his batting average on balls in play went from a career level of .351 to .296. These numbers would project him to be below average power hitting first baseman. He battled through a hamstring injury in the late summer causing him to miss some playing time at the end of the season. Furthermore, he started the season with a back injury that he played through. Many ‘perts are giving him a mulligan on the 2009 season, but he very well come have met his ceiling, or nearing his ceiling. The mid-summer months were his best, but nothing impressive from a first baseman. He’ll be 22 in 2010 and still has the potential to shine. Don’t be shocked to see him back at Double-A in 2010.
#13 Ryan Kalish | RF | A+/AA | 21 | .279/.364/.457 | 506 AB | 24 2B | 18 HR | .178 ISO | 21/6 SB/CS | 107:68 K:BB | .317 BABIP | 47 GB% | 14.8 LD% | 38.2 FB%
Kalish stayed in High-A long enough to tally 115 at-bats and showing that he needed a promotion. Upon reaching Double-A, the homers started coming (13 in 391 AB). He didn’t hit the ball hard as often as I would like (league average LD% is 18%), the walks are fairly impressive. With the potential to be a 20/20 hitter, Kalish looks like a Grady Sizemore in the making (and he played in CF at Double-A as Josh Reddick was playing RF). Look for him to start the year in Triple-A.
#5 – Josh Reddick | RF | AA | 22 | .277/.352/.520 | 256 AB | 17 2B | 14 HR | .243 ISO | 62:30 K:BB | .310 BABIP | 36.2 GB% | 14.4 LD% | 49.5 FB%
Reddick did have 71 at-bats at Triple-A Pawtucket, but they were utterly terrible as his slash line shows .127/.190/.183. Today, Reddick and Kalish are, and should be, equally ranked. Reddick has the potential for more power, especially with a much higher fly ball rate (49.5% versus 38.2%). If he didn’t struggle this year at Triple-A, it could have been feasible that he started in the big leagues this year. He has a rocket of an arm (41 outfield assists pre-2009) and adequate defense. With J.D. Drew and Mike Cameron aging, the Red Sox have some nice in-house outfield options. He should also be in Triple-A to start the 2010 season.
Pitchers #2 – Michael Bowden | RHP | AAA | 22 | 6.3 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 126 1/3 IP | 3.13 ERA | 4.18 FIP | 1.21 WHIP | .8 HR/9 | .260 BABIP | 31.1 GB% | 19.5 LD% | 44.6FB% Scouting the Unknown lays outs Michael Bowden pretty well. My opinions of him haven’t changed since mid-July. Matter-of-fact, looking at his peripheral stats, I like him even less, especially with the terrible ground ball rate. The AL East hitters will feast on Mr. Bowden. With the acquisition of Lackey and a loaded farm system of pitchers will make Bowden return to Triple-A to start the 2010 season. He’ll be there until an injury or a trade.
#7 – Junichi Tazawa | RHP| AA | 23 | 8.1 K/9 | 2.4 BB/9 | 98 IP | 2.57 ERA | 3.44 FIP | 1.08 WHIP | .7 HR/9 | .284 BABIP | 43.7 GB% | 13 LD% | 39.6 FB%
Another Red Sox player that received a Scouting the Unknown last summer, and if you do a quick search within the Razzball website you’ll see several poor Major League outings. He also pitched 11 1/3 innings at Triple-A and performed well. Tazawa is still another full year away from making a major impact at the major league level. Tazawa has the skill set to thrive in the majors.
#28 – Stephen Fife | RHP | A/A+ | 22 | 8.9 K/9 | 1.4 BB/9 | 87 1/3 IP | 3.71 ERA | 3.30 FIP | 1.19 WHIP | .8 HR/9 | .317 BABIP | 55.5 GB% | 14.7 LD% | 25 FB%
This is a bit of a stretch to place him in this section. There are definitely other pitchers the Red Sox could call upon in 2010 if there are bullpen issues. However, Fife generates more ground balls with his low to mid 90′s fastball than the US Government generates debt. With a slurvy slider and an average circle change-up, Fife could quickly rise through the minors if he continues to keep the ball on the ground. With another season under his belt, the Red Sox may try to make him into a starter. If this happens, he could be Aaron Cook, the 2009 Joel Pineiro, or even a Roy Halladay. The most likely outcome would be the Aaron Cook end of the spectrum. Serviceable, but nothing exciting.
Honorable Mentions
These players are in this section because they aren’t as likely to make an impact in 2010 for the Red Sox on the major league level. However, many of these prospects are their top rated prospects.
Hitters #8 – Ryan Westmoreland | CF | A(ss) | 19 | .296/.401/.484 | 223 AB | 15 2B | 7 HR | .188 ISO | 19/0 SB/CS | 49:38 K:BB | .353 BABIP | 46.9 GB% | 16.9 LD% | 36.3 FB%
Keith Law has him ranked as the Red Sox number two prospect in 2010, and John Sickels has him ranked number one. He has the power to hit 20 to 25, and possibly even 30 homers with 25 to 30 steals in a full season. His plate discipline is stellar, his defense adequate, and the only concern is his injury history. Prior to playing in the minors he had shoulder surgery, thus the reason why he only has 223 at-bats this year. He’ll start in Single-A or possibly even High-A to start the 2010 season. He’ll be talked about more in 2011 and potentially playing in the big leagues in the late summer of 2011. However, a more reasonable expectation would have him playing in the majors in 2012.
#21 – Derrik Gibson | 2B/SS | A(ss) | 19 | 255 AB | 15 2B | 0 HR | .090 ISO | 28/5 SB/CS | 4238 K:BB | .351 BABIP | 60.3 GB% | 14.7 LD% | 24.6 FB%
He plays great defense, control the strike zone really well, but will struggle to hit for much power. Could be Adam Everett with some speed, or Neifi Perez – a slap hitter with little fantasy value save SAGNOF.
Ryan Lavarnway | C | A | 22 | .285/.367/.540 | 506 AB | 36 2B | 21 HR | .255 ISO | 113:50 K:BB | .349 BABIP | 40.2 GB%| 16.4 LD% | 43.1 FB%
I couldn’t find much information about Lavarnway, but my eyes tell me an ISO of .255 is pretty darn impressive. Power doesn’t just appear out of nowhere. Unless your name is Marcus Giles. Lavarnway has a long way to become truly relevant. He’ll need to repeat this type of performance for another two years for him to have a shot at the major league level. Having depth at catcher is extremely important in any organization. High-A should continue to help his numbers, but Double-A will be his first real test.
Pitchers #6 – Casey Kelly | RHP | A/A+ | 20 | 7.0 K/9 | 1.5 BB/9 | 95 IP | 2.08 ERA | 3.04 FIP | .85 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | .230 BABIP | 51.6 GB% | 10.7 LD% | 33.8 FB%
Aided by an extremely low BABIP (.230), Kelly’s numbers were inflated (technically, that would be the correct word). Once a shortstop with stellar defense and a terrible bat, the Red Sox have committed to making Kelly a pitcher instead of a two-way player. His fastball has late life and reaches 92 mph. His curveball has a sharp bite and a changeup in the works. Projected to be a number two or three starter, Kelly will get tested in 2010 while at Double-A. If he can keep his good ground ball rate, he’ll progress quickly through the mid-minors. However, the numbers should regress a bit due to that extremely low BABIP. It would be scary to think of where he could be right now if he, and Boston, would have made him a pitcher to begin his career.
#11 – Stolmy Pimentel | RHIP | A | 19 | 7.9 K/9 | 2.2 BB/9 | 117 2/3 IP | 3.82 ERA | 3.91 FIP | 1.39 WHIP | .9 HR/9 | .343 BABIP | 39.5 GB% | 15.9 LD% | 37.3 FB%
Considered to have the best changeup in the Boston farm system, Stolmy still has room to improve his average fastball (91 to 92 mph) with very few qualities attached to this offering. There is little life on his fastball. His curve is a show-me pitch with the ability to become an average pitch. He should reach Double-A next year if all goes well.
——-
And no, I didn’t forget about Anthony Rizzo. He’ll get a Scouting the Unknown later in the 2010 season. So commentators do not worry, I won’t forget about him.
With the All-Star break, many of us don’t know how to kill the time at work this week. Hopefully, this week’s StU can help break some of your boredom and help you procrastinate some more.
Michael Bowden | SP | Boston Red Sox | DOB: 9/9/1986 | 6-3 | 215 lbs |Bats/Throws: Right | BOS #2 ranked prospect according to Baseball America The Cube: Control (92) | K-rating (90) | Efficiency (98)
Many of you have patiently waited to read about this BoSox fan favorite. Matter of fact, there is so much hype surrounding Bowden that you would swear he was the second coming of Greg Maddux, or maybe even Jesus. It’s easy to blame the east coast bias for the aura that surrounds their prospects and sports teams, and well, that’s exactly what kind of blame this hype deserves.
His fastball sits between 89 and 93 mph with good movement that will top out at 95. His fastball is surprisingly effective because of his “deceptive” arm angle according to Baseball America writers. He also possesses a hard 12-6 curve, and a circle change that is hard for lefties to hit. Scouts rave about the curve, but have mentioned that at times he lets it loop more like a Zito curve. The top thing that the scouts lavish over is his impeccable control. Personally, how they talk reminds me of Brad Radke, a former Minnesota Twin who was known for his ability to eat innings and rarely walk a batter. The trouble with his style of pitching though is he’s a fly ball pitcher, and his stuff isn’t overpowering/dominating. A fly ball pitcher in the AL East, especially now with the shorter Yankee right field porch, smells like trouble. He is starting to look more like a mediocre pitcher than a top of the line pitcher like the hype indicates.
The only other knock on him is his quirky delivery, but I tend to think these quirks add to the character of the pitcher (a la – Lincecum, Roy Halladay even has a quirky delivery). Unless it places tons of strain on the elbow, which it doesn’t, and he throws lots of hard breaking pitches, I think he should be fine. Will he be a top of the rotation pitcher? I doubt it. Do I think he is a good pitcher? Sure.
Is this bashing necessary? Well, I will let you determine that:
’06 (A, A+) 9.7 K/9 | 2.6 BB/9 | .7 HR/9 | 1112 2/3 IP | 3.75 ERA | 1.17 Whip | .377 BABIP
’07 (A+,AA) 8.1 K/9| 2.6 BB/9 | .6 HR/9 | 142 2/3 IP | 3.34 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | .292 BABIP
’08 (AA,AAA) 8.1 K/9 | 1.8 BB/9 | .6 HR/9 | 144 1/3 IP | 2.62 ERA | .98 WHIP| .295 BABIP
’09 (AAA) 6.1 K/9 | 3 BB/9 | 1.1 HR/9 | 77 IP | 3.39 ERA | 1.18 WHIP | .253 BABIP **Stats as of July 5th
Those really aren’t eye popping numbers, except for possibly last year. However, those are essentially his numbers from AA, as he only pitched 40 innings in AAA in ’08. This year’s stats show more of the real pitcher he is, except for maybe his diminished control. The overall numbers are helped by a pitcher friendly BABIP. The reduced K/9, increase in HR/9 and BB/9 raise a red flag, or at least a flag that warrant more reserved predictions of his talent at the major league levels.
He should round out to be a better than average pitcher, but no higher than a number three starter or an above average back end of the rotation pitcher. If he was called up today, I would only want him because he pitches for a winning ball club, AKA- vulturing some wins. Other than that, I don’t want to touch him with Pesky’s (foul) pole.
Jason Heyward | OF | Atlanta Braves | DOB: 8/9/1989 | 6-4 | 220 lbs | Bats/Throws: Left | ATL #2 ranked prospect according to Baseball America The Cube: Power (71) | Speed (62) | Contact (61) | Patience (54)
Hidden behind a talented farm system down in Atlanta, Heyward has quietly produced stellar numbers since his rookie year at A ball. Having drawn comparisons to Willie McCovey and Dave Parker, this young outfielder has all five tools that scouts drool over. He’s athletic in that large frame, actually knows how to play defense (a plus because that might help him raise through the minors faster), and has the patience of a hitter much older than him. If you want to compare his Cube numbers to professional MLB players think of James Loney, Mark Grace, and Conor Jackson (but as it has already been established, this isn’t the most accurate way to compare a player as it just compiles his numbers and rates them against his peers at the same level he is at). However, Jason should prove to be more than those players.
The Braves drafted him 14th in the 2007 draft, and some teams might have been better off drafting him instead (however, it was the ’07 draft that had Price taken number 1 followed by Moustakas (#1 ranked in KC’s system), Josh Vitters (#1 CHC), Wieters (#1 BAL), Ross Detwiler (#2 WAS), Matthew LaPorta (#2 CLE), Mad Bum (#1 SF) , Jarrod Parker (#1 ARI), Phillip Aumont (#1 SEA) – though not in order, but those are some nice names. However, Pittsburgh took Daniel Moskos (#19) – and no, that is not a typo) ahead of Wieters and cost their GM his job). Needless to say, that was nice top of the draft for many years, and we’ll have to wait to see how they all pan out. This is not to say Heyward is a lock to be an all-star for years to come, but he does have tremendous amounts of talent and potential to be a 20 to 25 homer right fielder who hits for good average, gets on base, drives in his fair share of runs, and steals an occasional base. Here are his numbers and slash lines as of July 5th,
’08 (A, A+) .316/.381/.473 (.854 OPS) in 471 AB (11 HR/56 RBI/6 SB)
@A – 9.8 B%/16.5K%/.160 ISO/.368 BABIP in 449AB
@A+ – 8.3/18.2/.091/.222 in 22AB
’09 (A+, AA) .302/.379/.531 (.910 OPS) in 192 AB (10/32/1 – 12 2B)
@A+ – 10 B%/15.9 K%/ .222 ISO/ .309 BABIP 189 AB
(Side note that I just realized, in Double-A he hasn’t K’d yet as of July 11th, in 26 Abs)
Those are pretty decent numbers actually. He hasn’t hit the number of homers some other prospects have, but he hits for average and gap power as of now which should translate into more homers in the future as he shortens his swing and fills out his body. One knock that some scouts have is that he is too patient of a hitter and often times doesn’t hit or swing at the best pitch for him to drive. I am not sure how I feel about this, but really, this should be a good thing. Some hitters don’t know how not to swing. * cough * K-Davis * cough * This should be something that he and his hitting coaches should be able to change. He has the work ethic for this to probably happen, and a positive note about a highly tout prospect – he is quite humble. Something I think we all can appreciate.
Don’t expect to see him this year until September, if at all. Next spring the Braves should probably give him an extended look, but he probably will start the year in AA or possibly AAA. He will need a bit more seasoning next year, but a May/June 2010 call up could be on the way.
