Fantasy Baseball Advice

On one hand, we have Evan Longoria at 7 and Yahoo has him at 13 in their O-Ranks, so we can get Longoria.  On the other hand, they have Dee Gordon at 96 in their O-Ranks and we have him at 165, so we’re not getting Gordon without reaching.  On the lesser known, third hand that is actually a foot wearing a mitten, what on earth is an O-Rank?  Sounds like something a teenager would say when they forgot to take their garbage out for six months.  Alas, I found the definition, “The “O-Rank” is an overall player rank based on current and prior seasons. Since it provides such a full spectrum analysis of a players abilities, the “O-Rank” is the method used for determining auto-picks in our draft for full Yahoo! Fantasy Sports games.”  A full spectrum analysis?  Who wrote this, Stephen Hawking?  I Googled “full spectrum analysis” and Google said “Do you mean gobbledygook?”  Actually, no lie, but the only other time “full spectrum analysis” was used since Al Gore invented the internet was in regards to gamma rays.  I don’t know the first thing about gamma rays, but the term “full spectrum analysis” actually makes sense to me more in regards to gamma rays than fantasy baseball rankings.  Well, whatever the case may be, we’re gonna say Yahoo’s O-Ranks are their rankings.  Key word is rank, I suppose.

“Ooh, I’m a Yahoo ‘pert and I love Michael Bourn and anyone covering Total Eclipse of the Heart.”  That’s Funston and Evans while they compile the rankings and watch The Voice.  They are just as high on Michael Bourn as every other ‘pert this and that side of the Mississippi minus Razzball.  I already went over my thoughts on Bourn’s supremacy and how everyone’s forgot his true identity:  SAGNOF!   Same goes for Curtis Granderson, who I labeled a schmohawk.  At least Yahoo didn’t put him in the top 20, that’s just common Curtis-y.  Pun point!

No one likes Jay Bruce, but me.  Honestly, I have no idea how this happened and it’s about the most puzzling thing going on this preseason.  When Bruce was first called up, the fantasy baseball community embraced him immediately, labeled him Bruuuuuuuuuuce and sold the Ohio Turnpike to the Middle East in his honor as reported by Matt Taibbi.  Now, we’re coming off a season where he finally put everything together and he’s going to be 25 years old.  This is the time to move on from him?  I nearly put Bruce in my top 20 overall (ended up just outside of it at 27) and Yahoo has him at 51.  I’ll happily go with Bruce in every league, and that’s not just the Jersey in me talking.  Though I do write with one hand and fist pump with the other.

Rather than going through all of their wonky player rankings, I’ve made a chart.  “Yo, Differences Between My Rankings and O-Ranks, you’ve been charted!”  The positive numbers mean you have a good chance of getting those players if you follow my rankings.  The negative numbers mean Yahoo’s ranked these players higher than me.  Help for this chart was provided by frequent commenters, MattTruss223 and Cheese.  Promotional consideration was provided by Wheat Thins, “Now go eat yourself thin!”

Traditional, smarishional, am I right?

I mean, long gone are the days when your soon-to-be father-in-law would actually pay you (in sheep, no less) to take his wretched daughter off his hands.

Similarly, Razzballers are becoming masters of their own domains and kicking the traditional 5×5 fantasy baseball game to the curb. According to this survey, a ton of you guys are adding OPS to your leagues. OPS is on-base plus slugging – basically the sum of a player’s OBP and their slugging (to put it in almost identical wording).

I understand it, it’s new. The long ball is fun. It’s not the 1940s anymore when players hit only singles and everyone had tons of acres and sheep and whatnot to give away.

Back to fake reality: if you’re in one of these newfangled leagues, you have to change the kind of dowry you offer for certain players.

Black OPS All-stars

Not surprisingly, a lot of hitters featured in the OBP value risers will gain value in OPS leagues. Jose Bautista, Lance Berkman, Prince Fielder, Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds and Nick Swisher all become even more valuable in this type of league. In addition a few other guys gain a good bit of value.

Hanley Ramirez: Shortstops, as a whole, tend to suck even more when it comes to OBP and OPS leagues. Troy Tulowitzki stands a cut above the rest. However, even including last season’s disaster, Ramirez is the #2 SS in OPS over the last three seasons. For his career, Ramirez has a .886 OPS. While he might not get back to his .900+ OPS ways, a .370 OBP and .450 slugging percentage would net him a .820 OPS, which would have been in the top 40 last season and third at the position. A resurgent Hanley is a phenomenal option in OPS leagues.

Carlos Gonzalez: Gonzalez posted the 12^th best OPS among OFs last season and has the third best OPS since 2009 at the position. A .365 OBP and .545 slugging percentage (i.e., .910 OPS) seem par for the course with Gonzalez now. That’s a top 15 mark most years. If you add the steals and other counting numbers, Gonzalez becomes an incredibly interesting option in the late first round.

Carlos Beltran: A healthy Beltran represents huge value in OPS leagues. He has the seventh best OPS since 2009 among OFs and posted the ninth best mark at the position just last season. Over the last few seasons, Beltran has increased his walk rate and OBP, and, when healthy has maintained an ISO above .215. Beltran will post a .372 OBP and .487 slugging percentage, meaning an .859 OPS. He has the upside to #1 OF status for your team who you can probably get as your third OF.

Kevin Youkilis: Youkilis (Grey’s geriatric love), who didn’t post an OBP below .390 from 2007-2010, could have been mentioned in the OBP piece (but he’s a no brainer in that format). However, he has posted the 10th best OPS over the last three years. While his 2011 OPS (.833) was low by his standards, it would easily finish top 10 at the position. Outside of health, the only concern entering 2012 is that lack of fly balls from Youkilis last season. Unless he is trading fly balls for liners off the green monster, his slugging percentage will suffer (as it did in 2011). For that reason, Youkilis seems like a .490 slugging guy (oddly right in line with his career number). Add in a .395 OBP and you have an .885 OPS, which would have been second at the position last year and 16th overall. Even if you want to dock him a few more points in SLG and OBP, he’s still a top OPS performer.

Mark Teixeira: Teixeira is tied with Ryan Howard for the 10^th best OPS among first basemen over the last three seasons. Still, that OPS lands him in a tie for 21st overall during that time. OPS, it’s a first baseman’s game. Teixeira shows that you can obtain elite production in OPS from the back-end of the first baseman pool, suggesting waiting on a slugger makes a lot of sense. Teixeira has an .877 OPS with the Yankees and should be good for a .360 OBP and .510 SLG this season, i.e., an .870 OPS, which would have put him among the top 25 players last season and eighth at the position.

Sleeper OPS

Jim Thome: Thome has the 15^th best OPS over the last three years. During that time, he has averaged 27 HRs, a .376 OBP and a .526 SLG. While last season was nowhere close to his near-vintage 2010, it was in line with his production in 2009. For the Phillies, a .360 OBP and .480 SLG is not out of the question. That would give him a solid .840 OPS. The at bats might not be there, but he’s decidedly worth a flier in OPS leagues.

Josh Willingham: Surprisingly, Willingham is tied with Jayson Werth for the 41st best OPS over the last three seasons. That places him tied for 14th among OFs during that span as well. While Willingham’s OBP struggled last season, it was the first time he was in the American League and first time his walk rate dipped below double digits. Clearly some adjustment was needed and Willingham hit far better in the second half. There’s no reason Willingham can’t get his walk rate back to 11.5%, which should push his OBP to at least .355. In addition, he slugged .477 last year in Oakland, so he should have no problem putting up a .470 SLG in Minnesota. This would give Willingham an .825 OPS, which would put him in the top 20 at his position.

Luke Scott: Last season was a disaster for Scott. However, in the previous three years, he averaged a .348 OBP and .497 SLG (.845 OPS). Of course, there is a legitimate chance father time is catching up to Scott as he will be 34 this season. Nevertheless, he is mostly an afterthought in drafts and should be a cheap lottery ticket in OPS leagues.

Matt Joyce: Joyce, 27-years-old, has put up an .829 OPS over the last two seasons. While he took a small step backward in OBP last year (his walk rate was 9.4%), there’s no way he can’t get it back to 11% or so. If he does, he can post a .355 OBP. In addition, Joyce is entering his prime, hit more line drives last year and could be good for a few more extra base hits. A .482 SLG would net him an .837 OPS, making him an incredibly solid option in OPS leagues. In addition, his splits give you a blueprint to use him, i.e., only when a righty is starting.

Dexter Fowler: There aren’t many speed guys who rank among the OPS leaders at their respective positions (and calling Fowler a speed guy might be generous). Fowler’s .796 OPS last season was 29th for OFs and he demonstrated solid growth throughout the season. His three highest OPS months were in the second half and there was a near 200 point gulf between his first half OPS and second half. Fowler has always walked at a good clip and has posted 21%+ line drive rates the last three seasons. A .365 OBP and .435 SLG are not out of the question, which would help him reach a .800 OPS. Those numbers are a tad optimistic, but he could also improve on them. The biggest aspect of Fowler’s game that limits his value is his failure to use his speed. He was 12/21 in SB attempts last year and is 52/80 in his MLB career. Still, Fowler has two important ingredients in a base stealer: speed and OBP. Call Fowler a real big sleeper in OPS leagues.

Taco Bell Black OPS (non)Ballers

There is a bunch of cross-over from the OBP post to the OPS one when it comes to sucky guys for this format (cough shortstops). Alcides Escobar, Ian Desmond, Ichiro and others who don’t get on base a ton and hit a lot of singles lose tremendous value in OPS leagues.

Elvis Andrus: Andrus had the 13^th best OPS among SS last season (behind Erick Aybar, Derek Jeter, Emilio Bonifacio, Yunel Escobar and others). While Andrus has begun to walk at a decent clip and his ISO double last season, his career OBP and SLG are separated by just .003. Andrus will get on base just fine (.350), however his SLG won’t be much higher (.360), leaving him with a pretty terrible .710 OPS. There’s better ways to get 40 SBs than sacrificing that OPS.

Jimmy Rollins: Surprisingly, Rollins posted the 11th best OPS last season at the position and has the 16th best OPS over the last three years. His OPS during that time is lower than Marco Scutaro and Juan Uribe. Rollins’ ISO has trended down since 2007 and has apparently stabilized at .130. While he has begun to walk more, he has also tried to hit more fly balls (potentially to make up for his lack of power), which has zapped his batting average. Consequently, he is giving back the OBP he would have gained with his walks in trying to hit homers. At this point, he looks like a .330 OBP and .400 SLG. He won’t post an OPS much higher than Andrus in 2012.

Michael Bourn: While not as weak as Andrus, Bourn doesn’t drive the ball at all. Bourn maintains value in OBP leagues, but posting around a .700 OPS leaves fantasy owners wanting. Bourn is basically Mark Reynolds in OPS leagues. He provides elite value in one-category while hurting you remarkably in another. He’s not quite as disastrous as Reynolds in average, but it’s probably better to get speed somewhere else.

Alex Rios: Even when Rios was great in 2010, he didn’t crack a .800 OPS. In fact, his OPS over the last three seasons is barely in the top 90 OFs. Even if he bounces back in an optimistic sense (.325 OBP and .440 SLG), that’s a .765 OPS, which would have tied for 34th at the position last year and would be worse than what Jon Jay did.  Right now, he’s ranked 70th at Fleaflicker, which is madness, but even if he were another 100 spots later, I’d pass in an OPS league.

Cameron Maybin: Maybin is an odd case as he walks a decent amount and has the potential to drive the ball (.130 ISO last year, .132 for his career), yet he has a .704 OPS for his career. Still, he has posted mammoth OPS seasons in the minors and is still relatively young, so there is room for optimism. However, not even the most optimistic projections (.350 OBP, .425 SLG) get him to an .800 OPS. In reality, it’s far more likely he posts a .330 OBP and .400 SLG. That marginalizes his 40 steal potential.

People love Michael Bourn.  Color me confused.  I am far and away the lowest on Michael Bourn out of every ‘pert both sides of the Mississippi and Canada, unless the Mississippi runs through Canada and that’s being redundant; I have no idea.  Last year, he had more plate appearances than Prince Fielder, Billy Butler and Pablo Sandoval combined (talking off the diamond plate appearances, which is obviously much higher than on the field ones for those three).  Bourn’s PAs numbered 722 and he would need that to repeat his 60 steals from last year.  That was the 4th highest plate appearances in the majors last year.  To count on 722 plate appearances again is a horn bet.  I have his projections down for 90/2/40/.280/50.  That seems more than fair.  If he pulls a hammy, then his value, which is all tied up in his legs like any good piece of chicken, is kaput.  But we’re going to assume he does steal 50 bases and no witchcraft I do will work.  So why then is Michael Bourn overrated for 2012 fantasy baseball?

SAGNOF!  You knew it was coming.  I knew it was coming.  It was only a matter of time.  Saves/Steals Ain’t Got No Face.  Today, we’re talking about the steals side of the equation.  What kind of face do steals have?  No face.  Let’s look at the ZiPS projections for one player:  In 489 plate appearances, 64/1/24/.273 with 44 steals.  This player is none other than Tony Campana.  That’s the Tony “I’m Not Drafted In Any League” Campana.  Want another one?  Here’s a guy’s 2011 numbers:  69/8/54/.264/49.  That’s Coco Crisp.  He’s being drafted about 20 outfielders after Bourn on average.  Not to mention, how many homers are you getting from the rest of your team to put Bourn on your team as your first outfielder?  You need 20 homers per player in 12 team leagues.  Don’t think about drafting a Bonifacio at middle infield or any other steals-only player, because then you’re doomed to be power light.  Finally, I’ll lay on you a credo that’s not a credo but more of a metaphor.  This has been said ad nauseam on this site, but here’s it one more time.  (If you’re reading this on a roller coaster, you may barf.)  You can always trade closers.  There’s only so many of them in the league at any given time and people will lose one and need another one.  On the other hand, speedsters are like new cars.  They’re pricey and lose their value the minute you drive them off the lot.  Bourn’s on some expert lists around Josh Hamilton, Hunter Pence or Nelson Cruz.  Seriously, try to draft Bourn, then trade him for one of those other outfielders right after the draft.  You’ll be having buyer’s remorse almost immediately.

After the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball, guess what we have here?  The top something-something’s? Cute, random italicized voice.  We have the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  That’s right, Wonderful just gave birth to Awesome.  Wanna hear something even awesomier?  I’m going to turn this to 60 then 80.  Hopefully I don’t blow my amp.  The hardest part about writing these 2012 fantasy baseball rankings posts is writing this opening.  Trying to make the clerical stuff sound less clerical, ya know?  So I just copied the openings from previous years where applicable.  As with other rankings, where I see tiers beginning and ending are mentioned along with my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball:

21. Drew Stubbs – This tier started in the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This tier goes from here until Kendrick.  I call this tier, “I’ll happily reach for one of these guys if I have to, in the non-sexual way.  Though it’s kinda sad this is the third tier of outfielders that I’m excited about.  Times is tough, yo.”  Stubbs isn’t really the same player as Fellatio Upton, so I battled with how to get him out of the same tier.  I battled myself by dunking my hands in two bowls of Jell-O, then thumb-wrestling myself to a ten round draw.  I ended up figuring it was fine to put Stubbs in the same tier but below him.  2012 Projections:  80/17/55/.240/40

22. Krispie Young – Krispie is another guy that I kinda wanted to move to another tier and he’s even pretty far below Stubbs (though it sure doesn’t seem that way in these rankings).  What Krispie has going for him that Beej and Stubbs don’t is 25-plus homer power.  He’s pretty seriously deficient in average though, and when I’m saying that compared to Stubbs and Upton, it’s saying something.  Grey said, “Something.”  See?  2012 Projections:  85/25/80/.235/25

23. Jason Heyward – This is probably the furthest I’m out on a limb with an outfielder.  He could be a worse pick than Markakis.  Last year Heyward hurt his shoulder, then Glass Chipper started questioning his manhood even though Chipper invented the oblique just so he could miss 40 games a year.  Heyward’s BABIP was obscenely low so he should hit at least 40 points higher without much effort.  Hitting for a better average with a healthier shoulder should help him build confidence, move him up in the order and hit for more power.  You could blend those variables together and you may end up with a wheatgrass/kale antioxidant health drink that is supposed to be good for you but just makes you want to vomit.  If at any point in the spring there’s news that his shoulder is still bothering him, I’ll drop him way down in the rankings.  2012 Projections:  80/22/90/.280/10

24. Howie Kendrick – I went over Kendrick’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

25. Shin-Soo Choo – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Gordon.  I call this tier, “I could see myself missing out on these guys because others are believing them more than me.” Most ‘perts are looking at Choo’s 2011 as an aberration.  That wasn’t Soo Choo, that was Soju.  An Asian flush with bad luck.  So last year he had a .317 BABIP (off his career rate, but not really that terrible), a 1o.4% HR/FB (again, not hideous), a 10.1% walk rate (not bad) and a 21.8% K-rate (around his career rate).  He missed a bunch of games because of injury.  If he’s healthy, he’s back to the 17-20 homer, 17-20 steal guy.  Yay.  I don’t know; it’s all right.  I’m not excited to draft him.  2012 Projections:  80/17/85/.280/17

26. Carl Crawford – Last year, things started poorly and went from bad to Mad Libs in the cliche.  Slumps get into guys’ heads and if there isn’t a big girl around to have sex with that slump can last longer than anyone wants.  I’m willing to ignore last year.  Really, I am.  Then the wrist surgery this offseason.  Damn, that wrist got me pist.  Red Sox are reporting he should be ready for Opening Day.  I’m reporting he’s going to miss a month.  There’s a small silver lining.  His wrists aren’t his legs.  Hey, I should’ve gotten better than a C in Human Anatomy!  If he falls, I could see gambling on him, but it’s probably not going to happen if you follow my rankings.  2012 Projections:  75/10/70/.280/30

27. Alex Gordon – Here’s what I said at the end of last year for Gordon, “Gordon’s line this year was 101/23/87/.303/17.  Terrific!  Wonderful!  Tonderific!  But if you peek under the hood, things aren’t as they seem.  His BABIP is .358, easily a career high in the majors.  His walk rate and line drive rate dropped from last year, and his ground ball rate nudged up.  His homers and speed look about right, but if luck goes against him those two categories could get affected.  He’s probably much closer to a .280 hitter with 17-20 homers and 12-15 steals.  With just a tad bad luck, he becomes a fifteen homer guy with 10 steals and a .265 average.  That’s far from spectacular.  That’s spectaculess.  I just made that up; you like it?  You use it.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2012 Projections:  85/20/100/.280/12

28. Brett Gardner – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Rasmus.  I call this tier, “I’m targeting these guys for my teams.  They might all end up getting sleeper posts.  You’ve been forewarned.  (Bee tee dubya, the projections in this tier are a bit optimistic, but I’m sick of hiding my excitement.  Let me free-ball and show you my love!)”  I’m unabashedly a fan of Gardner, which makes very little sense if you’ve read this site for an extended period of time because usually I ignore SAGNOF’ers and just grab one later or off waivers.  To me, Gardner is underrated, which is odd because Yankees are usually overrated.  Gardner is just an enigma wrapped inside a riddle inside a fortune cookie that reads, “Person who sleeps with scratchy rear wakes with smelly finger.” 2012 Projections:  105/8/50/.280/50

29. Jayson Werth – Ponder this, guys and three girl readers, is Werth that different from Corey Hart?  Okay, stop pondering it, your eyes are crossing.  He’s not hitting 35+ homers again like he used to in Citizens Flank, but he should also be better than last year and the Nats offense is looking solid.  Yeah, I know how weird that sounds.  Don’t point out the obvious.  2012 Projections:  75/22/90/.265/15

30. Logan Morrison – His Isolated Power was .221.  Dan Uggla’s was .220.  Paul Konerko’s .217.  Jay Bruce’s .217.  Logan Morrison only hit 23 homers last year.  He missed almost 40 games last year because of injuries and his inability to put the cone of silence on his Twitter account.  He’ll only be 24 years old for the better part of 2012 and the Miami Marlins revamped their lineup by throwing some fabulous moolah around for a World Series ring.   2012 Projections:  60/25/75/.270/5

31. Michael Cuddyer – Went over Cuddyer’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

32. Peter Bourjos – What does it mean that Bourjos is ranked this high?  It means we’re all screwed.  Sorry, don’t mean to yell fire in the theater of Razzball, but outfield is shallower than a conversation with a Kardashian.  I already went over my Bourjos 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it while refusing to eat at Subway because it reeks of onions.  2012 Projections: 85/15/50/.255/35

33. Alex Rios – I wrote an Alex Rios 2012 fantasy post.  It pained me to write that post and I hope you forgive me but I felt like it needed to be said.  Now please forget the apology if I’m right or forget that I wrote the post if I’m wrong.  Thanks, over-the-internet friend!  2012 Projections:  75/17/85/.270/22

34. Colby Rasmus – I’m out on serious limbs with some the players’ rankings in this tier.  Just when you thought I was totally out of my gourd with my Rios ranking, here’s Rasmus about 35 spots ahead of where I see some other ‘perts ranking him.  The key thing with drafting is you are drafting for the upcoming year, don’t try and put together a team that would’ve kicked serious booty while bagging last year’s doubloons.  That’s not going to win you something, but hopefully I just learned you something.  Hey, that sounds like a rhyme Pitbull would make.  Blah blah blah Kodak, blah blah blah Kodak.  2012 Projections:  85/22/70/.265/10

35. Corey Hart – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Ethier.  I call this tier, “I’ll reluctantly draft these guys, but I’d rather not.”  On first glance, Corey Hart’s season last year looks okay.  On second glance, his 2010 season of 31 homer, 7 steal 2010 and 2011 of 26/7 look remarkably similar — he simply had 15 less games last year.  On third glance, you see his fly ball rate plummeted and start to think his homer per fly ball rate is unsustainable.  On fourth glance, you start to wonder why you’re looking at Corey Hart’s numbers four times.  On fifth glance, there is no fifth glance.  On sixth glance, you think about how he may not break 75 runs or RBIs without Prince Fielder, fifty games of The Hebrew Herpes and the invariably injured Weeks.  On seventh glance, you accidentally hypnotize yourself and begin to cluck like a chicken in front of an audience of strangers.  2012 Projections:  75/24/70/.265/8

35 1/2. Yoenis Cespedes – I went over my Yoenis Cespedes fantasy while studying for Jeopardy!  2012 Projections: 65/20/80/.250/12

36. Nick Markakis – The last four years his homer totals have been 20, 18, 12, 15.  One of these years he may stand up and say he is Sparkakis, but until then I don’t care to gamble on a guy that is averaging 16 1/4 homers a year.  I mean, who ever even heard of quarter homers?  Those are singles, Nick.  Elevate the ball.  2012 Projections:  80/18/85/.295/10

37. Ben Zobrist – Went over Zobrist’s projections at the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.

38. Andre Ethier – This tier that I’m planning on missing makes an already shallow outfield that much more shallow.  I get that.  That’s why I named this tier, “I’ll reluctantly draft…”  I don’t like Ethier, but I can’t turn my nose up at dozens of guys this year.  I don’t buy into Ethier bouncing back to being a top 20 outfielder.  I say if you draft him, you’re going to get a top 30 outfielder at best.  That means he’s ranked near his ceiling.  Opportunity costs will probably have me looking elsewhere.  Hypothetical things that have no weight need to be weighed.  It’s all very scientific.  2012 Projections:  70/22/85/.295

39. Torii Hunter – This is a new tier.  This tier ends at Vernon Wells then starts again in the top 60 for 2012 fantasy baseball so I can sneak in the SAGNOF tier.  I call this tier, “Vets that I’m either lukewarm about or slightly more than lukewarm about.  Read the temperature gauge.”  The guys in this tier are mostly okay, unless you draft your team then get in a DeLorean and play out your fantasy league in 2004.  Then they’re awesome!  Maybe one of the guys in this tier has a Lance Berkman 2011 year.  There always seems to be one, but don’t say you know which guy it is — someone might be listening.  If I had to bet on a surprising year from one vet, I’d go with Torii Hunter.  Lineup’s going to be the best he’s had in a while and he can lamp in the outfield.  Will he definitely surprise like that doode from Community coming out with one of the best albums of 2011?  Nah, but the Torii Hunter gambino won’t cost you much.  2012 Projections:  80/24/90/.270/7

40. Vernon Wells – Cause crazy talk isn’t just something that I reserve for Alex Rios, I also wrote a Vernon Wells sleeper post.  No, there will be no sleeper post about Todd Helton, but that’s funny and sarcastic.  You’re a double threat!  2012 Projections:  75/25/85/.260/8

40 1/16. Michael Bourn – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of this post.  I call this tier, “SAGNOF!”  I just throw all these schmohawk steals guys in the same tier, because, well, frankly, interjection, they’re the same shizz.  Bourn gets you nothing but steals.  If you think that’s a smart way to build a team, I got a Lorenzo Cain, Michael Brantley or yadda³ off waivers that says you should follow the SAGNOF theorem of evolution that says these guys ain’t got no face.  Double negatives being damned, and all.  2012 Projections:  90/2/40/.280/50

40 1/8. Emilio Bonifacio – I went over Bonifacio’s projections in the top 20 shortstops for 2012 fantasy baseball.

40 1/4. Coco Crisp – Coco Crisp could be a cheap Brett Gardner.  Yes, I’m being cereal.  2012 Projections:  65/7/50/.260/35

40 what/fraction-is-this? Nyjer Morgan – Or should I say Tony Plush?  I could see a scenario where Morgan gets confused by not seeing Fielder and Braun and steals two bases in one inning for two different teams.  Sorta like a Joel Youngblood move, only crazier.  2012 Projections:  65/3/30/.270/27

40 3/4. Juan Pierre – Doesn’t have a team yet, but if he gets an everyday job then he’ll give you the usual.  If you don’t know what Juan Pierre gives you fantasy-wise, I have a copper-plated zinc portrait of Lincoln to sell you for $19.99.  2012 Projections:  85/1/40/.285/30

40 7/8. Rajai Davis – Doesn’t have a starting job right now, but didn’t last year and stole 34 bases.  Nothing like a basestealer that has a walk rate under 5%.  Rajai, you can’t steal first base, but you can throw your elbow into a pitch or two.  Keep that in mind.  2012 Projections:  40/1/20/.260/30

Went over the catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen and shortstops and top 20 3rd basemen for 2011. Guess what’s next!  No, not pitchers. Read the title, man.  In 2010, there were only 5 outfielders that hit 30 homers, this year there were 9.  It isn’t exactly like a bleached Sammy Sosa is sticking players with needles, but at least the rich got a little richer — yay, capitalism!  Steals were still in abundance, and that doesn’t seem like it’s going anywhere any time soon.  There were 14 outfielders who stole 30 bases with Michael Bourn still eating the baby out of the king cake.  Since outfield is a deep position, I’m going to turn this one to 40.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Matt Kemp – In the preseason, I ranked him 12th overall for all players.  Find another ‘pert who ranked him that high last year.  You’re wasting your time, you won’t find them.  I ranked him as the 2nd outfielder overall.  Just off Ryan Braun.  He was drafted on average 26th overall and some ‘perts had him in the 40′s.  He wasn’t an obvious pick.  2010 was not a good year, but he dropped his ball and anchor — or is it whips and chains? — and asked you to say his name.  In the preseason, I said, “A total off year in 2010.  That’s clear.  He still hit 28 home runs and stole 19 bases.  Sure, he hit .249, but he’s a career .285 hitter and his BABIP shows he was horribly unlucky last year.  Yes, his Ks went up, but what happens when someone is unlucky?  They press and start swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone.  At 26 years old for the majority of 2011, now is not the time to give up on Kemp.”  You can’t make that shizz up.  Okay, you can, but it would be pretty easy to double-check it.  Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections:  100/30/105/.285/22, Final Numbers: 115/39/126/.324/40

2. Jacoby Ellsbury – And as right as I was on Kemp, I didn’t see any of this Ellsbury season coming.  About a month into the season I even compared Ellsbury to Gardner.  While Gardner didn’t have a bad season, Ellsbury came out of nowhere with power that made him way more valuable.  But the whole “came out of nowhere” thing makes me think we’re looking at a career year for Ellsbury.  Preseason Rank #21, 2011 Projections:  90/7/70/.290/45, Final Numbers: 119/32/105/.321/39

3. Ryan Braun – In honor of The Hebrew Hammer, I wrote this about three weeks ago on Yom Kippur so I’ll make this fast.  Zing!  BTW, what’s the only thing you’re allowed to eat during Yom Kippur?  Atone-mints.  Zadow!  The fact that Braun wasn’t the number one outfielder with the year he had is more an (old) testament to the guys above him.  Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections:  105/32/120/.295/15, Final Numbers:  109/33/111/.332/33

4. Curtis Granderson – It sure was fun while it was going on, but now that Grandy’s 2011 is over it’s time to get real, I mean, was he for real?  God, no.  Will depend on where he gets drafted next year, but off the top of my head I’ll say he will be overrated next year.  Preseason Rank #27, 2011 Projections:  70/25/80/.260/15, Final Numbers:  136/41/119/.262/25

5. Jose Bautista – Went over him in the top 20 3rd basemen post.

6. Justin Upton – There’s guys that will repeat 2011 for a few years if they can avoid injury like Braun and there’s guys like Grandy and Melky.  Upton’s not a Melky or Grandy.  He’s a Braun.  Though Upton’s a lot more the Upton we saw this year than Braun was the Braun that we saw this year.  And that sentence wasn’t half as confusing in my head.  Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections:  85/26/95/.270/20, Final Numbers:  105/31/88/.289/21

7. Michael Bourn – There’s a few Razzball concepts that just work perfectly, if I can be so immodest.  SAGNOF is one.  It becomes apparent when you see ESPN rank someone like Bourn 7th overall.  Imagine on April 15th you were to trade Bourn straight up for Justin Upton then grab someone off waivers like Coco Crisp.  Your league would’ve had a conniption.  People would’ve immediately started sending notarized letters to your commissioner, using synonyms for unfair that they found in the thesaurus.  Preseason Rank #40 1/2, 2011 Projections:  80/3/40/.265/45, Final Numbers: 94/2/50/.294/61

8. Melky Cabrera – First player to come out of nowhere, but I don’t think he was the 8th ranked outfielder.  (I know it seems like I recap the players according to the ESPN Player Rater then disagree with it every step of the way, but c’est la vie, as Francouer would say.)  Melky’s stats made him a great third outfielder, solid across the board production.  As for where this season from Melky came from, he’s being seriously aided by plate appearances.  706 PA’s last year for 18 homers and 20 steals?  If his PA’s fall into the 550 range as they had most years prior to 2011, his stats are gonna look like Mike Aviles.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  102/18/87/.305/20

9. Alex Gordon – I recapped Alex Gordon’s season already.  I wrote that while stuffing a duck’s gullet for some foie gras.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  101/23/87/.303/17

10. Carlos Gonzalez – I knew CarGo wasn’t repeating his 2010, gave you preseason projections that were almost perfect and told you he was overrated.  Yet, I feel like he didn’t disappoint as much as he could have.  How dare you overperform your underperformance!  Preseason Rank #5, 2011 Projections:  90/24/95/.285/20, Final Numbers:  92/26/92/.295/20

11. Hunter Pence – Here’s a guy that is cast in the Braun/Upton mold.  You can set your watch to a decent year from Pence.  Give or take some power, some speed, some average… Well, his stats are always there…thereabouts.  Preseason Rank #10, 2011 Projections:  90/25/90/.290/15, Final Numbers:  84/22/97/.314/8

12. Lance Berkman – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen post.

13. Jeff Francoeur – Imagine if the peasant Royals would’ve actually had some pitching in 2011.  They would’ve easily made the postseason only to be bounced by the Rangers.  The Royals had more runs scored than the Phillies, Brewers and Rays.  As for fantasy, guys that surprise by overproducing are terrific.  But — and unless you’re an alien, there’s always a but — how many fantasy owners actually got these seasons in their entirety?  In deep leagues?  Sure.  You draft a guy like Frenchy and pray, then thank your deity of choice when he pans out.  But in shallow leagues, you look at a guy like Frenchy and maybe pick him up after he does some hitting, then maybe drop him when he stops for a few weeks then maybe you grab him again, but you don’t have these players for the whole season.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  77/20/87/.285/22

14. Michael Morse – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen post.

15. Josh Hamilton – Ellsbury threw me for a loop, Grandy exceeded my expectations by a shizzton and Melky did what no one thought he could with a bunch of plate appearances, but Hamilton once again did exactly what I thought he would.  Good while healthy with “while healthy” having its own solar system.  Preseason Rank #6, 2011 Projections:  85/27/100/.305/7, Final Numbers: 80/25/94/.298/8

16. B.J. Upton – People seem to hate B.J.  I think it’s the low average bias that permeates fantasy.  It’s odd that there’s such a bias when average is the hardest thing to predict.  Hate on low power or low speed, but low average?  It’s a horn bet.  Preseason Rank #19, 2011 Projections:  95/17/75/.250/40, Final Numbers: 82/23/81/.243/36

17. Ben Zobrist – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.

18. Andrew McCutchen – Last year we found out that The Dread Pirate wasn’t quite ready to take the next step like I thought he would.  He didn’t come up that short, but short enough as they say at dwarf bowling.  I really try to focus on making these blurbs about what the players did last year rather than looking ahead, but that’s easier said than done.  The Dread Pirate is gonna be my 2012 Matt Kemp.  There’s no one more exciting to me for next year that had a slightly down year.  Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections:  100/18/60/.290/38, Final Numbers: 87/23/89/.259/23

19. Coco Crisp – At 31 years old, he had his best season.  Coco Crisp must’ve been eating his Lucky Charms.  All of these steals came from a Billy Beane-GM’d team.  I guess there’s market efficiencies with steals now.  You’re probably not asking yourself what I thought of Moneyball, but I’ll tell you anyway.  SPOILER ALERT (but the movie has been out for over a month, you really have that much to do?)  I was kinda disappointed.  To go all EW on you, I’d give it a B, but I was hoping for an A.  Damn you, expectations.  I know Michael Lewis glossed over the fact Zito, Mulder, Hudson and the steroid-fueled Chavez and Tejada were actually a big part of the A’s success so I figured the movie would do the same.  It did.  They want a fairy tale about how some unknowns carried the team to glory.  Yay, Scott Hatteberg is undervalued and he uses a bat carved from a tree that lightning struck!  Not really, but whatever.  I was more disappointed because I was bored during stretches and I didn’t like Jonah Hill at all.  Hey, let’s get the Jew to find value where others are missing it!  Finally, I wanted some unintentional comedy with Royce Clayton playing Tejada.  “Hey, Miggy, do you have diabetes?”  Cut to:  Tejada holding a syringe.  Tejada, “Yes.  Blood sugar low.”  Though that song the daughter sings is hella (do the kids still say this?) catchy.  Should’ve changed the lyrics though:  I’m just a GM stuck in Oakland… I’m kind of sick of being so broke and having my team get to the playoffs only to choke.  Slow it down, make it stop… Miguel Tejada’s arms look like their gonna pop… BTW, if you wanna read movie reviews, my friend has a movie review blog.  Preseason Rank #62, 2011 Projections:  50/6/35/.260/22, Final Numbers:  69/8/54/.264/49

20. Emilio Bonifacio – Went over him in the top 20 3rd basemen post.