Fantasy Baseball Advice

On each friday we’re going to try and answer your 2008 fantasy baseball questions. Is this every fantasy baseball question we receive? No, but it’s a few of the better ones that were emailed directly to us at info[at]razzball.com. So if you want some fantasy baseball advice that can’t get answered in the comments section, then there you go.

Hey,
I got a huge trade offer. Someone offered me Utley, Oliver Perez and Aaron Rowand for Crawford, Isringhausen, and Sherrill. What should I do? Here is my roster.

Geovany Soto
(ChC - C)
Garrett Atkins
(Col - 1B,3B)
Ian Kinsler
(Tex - 2B)
Edwin Encarnación
(Cin - 3B)
Jimmy Rollins
(Phi - SS)
Álex Ríos
(Tor - OF)
Nick Markakis
(Bal - OF)
Corey Hart
(Mil - OF)
Carl Crawford (in UTIL slot)
(TB - OF)
Bobby Abreu (in UTIL slot)
(NYY - OF)
Chris Young
(SD - SP)
Tim Lincecum
(SF - SP)
James Shields
(TB - SP)
Jason Isringhausen
(StL - RP)
Joakim Soria
(KC - RP)
Heath Bell
(SD - RP)

Bench

George Sherrill
(Bal - RP)
Brian Wilson
(SF - RP)
Rafael Betancourt
(Cle - RP)
Ted Lilly
(ChC - SP)
Jair Jurrjens
(Atl - SP)
Huston Street
(Oak - RP)
Randy Wolf
(SD - SP)
Edison Vólquez
(Cin - SP)
Andy Sonnanstine
(TB - SP)
Wandy Rodríguez
(Hou - SP)
Ervin Santana
(LAA - SP)
Dana Eveland
(Oak - P)
Manny Parra
(Mil - RP)
Yovani Gallardo
(Mil - SP)

Rudy’s answer:
I’m assuming this is a 5×5 league w/ 8 to 10 teams.

Based on that, I see this as a two for three trade b/c Rowand is just a bench player. Utley’s biggest plus is that he plays 2B but you’ve got Kinsler there and no MI slot in your league. You’ve got more than enough closers for the 3 spots so the relievers aren’t that important but you’ve got three starters better than Oliver Perez as well.

I’d say make the trade b/c your team looks stronger on SB vs. HR/RBI and Utley is an upgrade over Crawford. You’ve got a 4th OF in Abreu so you’re fine on OF depth. Oliver Perez is better than some of your bench starters and might pay off at some point (more than Sherrill will anyway…)

Hope this helps.

Grey’s answer:

Your team look pretty stacked as it is, but why not try and make it better, right? So, first off, Utley and Crawford are the top two dogs in the trade. From the looks of your team, you’ll be simply switching them out, since you don’t need a 2nd basemen or an outfielder. I really like Crawford this year. I think those people who are saying he’ll never see 25 home runs are neglecting he’s still only going to be 27 in 2008. There is a possibility he hits 25 home runs, and it could be this year. As for, Utley — Well, he’s better. He has hit 25 home runs already and will again. His projections are 120/32/115/.325/12. You will lose at least thirty steals going from Crawford to Utley, but you have a solid, well-rounded foundation. You can afford to take the hit in steals.

Then there’s Oliver Perez and the other schmohawk for Izzy (kinda crap) and Sherrill (extreme crap). Oliver Perez is the next best player in this trade, so you’re getting the top two players in this trade and you’re asking me if you should do it? I know, you’re worried you’re trading too many saves away. Well, Sherrill is good for nothing. I watched the Orioles the other day. They’re not winning 70 games. Sherrill will be lucky to get 25 saves and he’s never closed before, so he’s far from a sure thing. You’re not trading away Valverde at the beginning of last year here. Sherrill’s not going to come out of nowhere and save 45 games. As for Izzy, he’s a reliable closer who will probably chuck in 30-35 saves. So you lost about 55 saves in this trade, big whoop. You have a few closers and I think you’ll manage fine. If you need saves in July, you trade someone for a reliable closer. Oh, and drop Rowand and pick up Mota or Turnbow or Riske, one of them will be closing soon.

Hope this helps.

Hey,

Your fantasy baseball site is by far the best I’ve found on the web. Reading your blog posts over the past few months, I went from a college football fanatic who keeps an eye on the MLB and March Madness to a hopeless sports addict–now that I’m so into fantasy I have no offseason.

So as I’m sorta new to this, I have one question if you have the time. I’m in a 9-team Yahoo! money league with AVG, H, R, HR, RBI, SB, TB, XBH / W, L, K, SV, ERA, WHIP, CG, K/BB. I didn’t draft a pitcher until round 9. I’ll try to recall the rounds I got these guys, but I’m honestly very worried about my pitching. Would you recommend trading one of my higher round batters for a starter?

C Geovany Soto (18)
1B Mark Teixeira (3)
2B Chase Utley (2)
3B Aramis Ramirez (5)
SS Troy Tulowitzki (6)
OF Carlos Lee (4)
OF Matt Holliday (1)
OF Nick Markakis (7)
OF Adam Dunn (8) — wasn’t planned, just had to pick him up in 8
BN Matt Kemp (16)
BN Michael Bourn (19)
BN Alex Gordon (14)
BN Eugenio Velez (W)

SP Javier Vázquez (11)
SP James Shields (13)
SP Adam Wainwright (16)
SP Manny Parra (20)
SP Edison Vólquez (W)
RP Joe Nathan (9)
RP Francisco Cordero (15)
RP Chad Cordero (17)
DL John Lackey (10)
DL Yovani Gallardo (12)
DL Chris Carpenter (W)

Now that I write it out, it does look like I have a lot of pitchers, but 3 on the DL still makes ya frown. What’s the verdict?

Rudy’s answer:

Thanks for the kind words and frequenting our site.

The first thing we need to consider is your league - 9 team MLB with only 4 OF + no CI, MI, or UTIL. And 8 categories instead of the basic 5.

Having only 9 teams + less offensive slots means you can’t fool around with subpar performers. Factoring in that two of your three categories (TB, XBH) favor power hitters, the value of SB-dependent players like Michael Bourn drops greatly. I’d suggest a virtual punting of SB at this point and concentrate on the other 7 stats.

Your pitching has some promise - particularly the bullpen where you’ve got three of the potentially top 15 closers. Even in a 9 team league that’s good. As for your starters, if every team needs to have 5 starters, you’re talking about 45 starters in play. You’ve got 4 starters I’d put in the top 45 (add Gallardo to your top three) AND you don’t have a top 10 starter. You do have some promise in the young arms (Parra/Volquez) but young starters usually don’t pan out. (Note: I didn’t count Lackey as you have to assume right now he’s going to be out for the year - despite what the Angels are saying.

The players I’d look to trade are Dunn, Kemp, Bourn, Volquez, and Chad Cordero. I’d be targeting a top 12 starter. Here’s the top 12 based on our Point Shares projections:

Santana
Peavy
Webb
Beckett
Sabathia
Bedard
Smoltz
Hamels
Kazmir
Haren
Verlander
Harang

Look for the teams with 2-3 of these pitchers and try to grab one. I think an offer of Kemp/Dunn + Volquez would be tough to turn down. Dunn alone might be enough. If you’re getting misty about Volquez, note that he might strike out a lot but he walks a lot too so he’ll hurt your WHIP and K/BB ratios. Given the K/BB ratio, I’d also consider making a run for Ben Sheets who has awesome K/BB stats.

Hope this helps.

In today’s daily notes, I’ll look at how badly Pedro Martinez’s struggles were against the Marlins up until the injury and everything else I saw in today’s major league games:

Dan Uggla, Luis Gonzalez took Pedro Martinez deep. Beltran took an awful route to a ball for a Hanley triple to score an AA chip. In another at-bat, he made Uggla seem discriminating. Gary Cohen put it best, “Best thing Pedro did tonight was his at-bat.” But against VandenHurk, it’s a very small consolation. I’m not pleased. He should’ve dominated this team. There were lots of meatballs thrown by Pedro. He didn’t look in command of anything. He can no longer overpower people and… He left with an injury. Looked like a hamstring or a groin tweak. Didn’t look serious, but at his age, it could be. Word from Pedro, he heard a pop. That’s never a good thing. Or as Willie said, ” That’s not always good, but we’ll let it calm down and get an MRI.” Is there a time it is good? Jorge Sosa gets his next start for NL-only leagues, everyone else needs to wait and see. To be continued.

Must look at Angel Pagan in NL-only leagues. He’s no more than a reserve at this point. He’s got good speed, but nothing more than a fill-in for the Mets and probably shouldn’t be much more for you.

Posada hit into a double play to the right side of the infield. This will be a recurring theme.

Melky could put 5/5 numbers and his defense will keep him in the lineup. Fortunately, he will not put up those numbers. He will be a lot better. There was some comment chatter on this post about who will be better between Butler, McLouth, Ethier, Milledge and Gutierrez. Rudy added Melky into that group. Makes sense. I like them Butler, Gutierrez, Melky, Milledge, McLouth then Ethier. But Ethier placing last is a testament to the other guys and not that huge of a knock on Ethier. This group will be watched all year.

Both Halladay and Wang looked good, except no Ks. Probably the most boringest matchup that could take place. Was like watching paint dry. Paint that doesn’t strike anyone out. Really farkin’ boring paint. Oh, wait, there was something more boring-er.

The Cardinals hitting. Skip Schumaker? Cesar Izturis? Kyle Lohse batting 8th? Larussa has outdone himself this year.

I hate Kip Wells. How could he pitch so well and not so… er, Wells? Did he really strikeout Pujols?

Joba v. Rios — Rios BB. Joba’s the most exciting reliever since steroid-ed Gagne. Rios would’ve been a consensus 2nd round pick, if he played for the Yanks or Mets and not just on my list. People need to see him play.

Matt Kemp was out of the lineup in favor of Juan Pierre. The Pierre Situation is quickly becoming a nightmare that could ripple into the entire outfield, not just Andre Ethier. I’d much rather see Kemp than Ethier out there. Frankly, I’d prefer to see Andruw Jones sit.

If you’re looking to handcuff Jose Valverde, Doug Brocail has been declared the primary setup man, not Oscar Villarreal.

As much as Rich Aurilla should retire, the Giants should not be playing him.

Scott Hairston went deep and Bourn stole another base (but it was against Bard and Young, so dur, of course). Hairston’s someone who never got a fair shot in Arizona, but he’s got a good eye, posting over a .400 OBP in the minors.

Our mad experiment of a fantasy baseball game has come to life! Thanks to all the bloggers (and one non-blogger) that participated in the draft. Click here for the league members as well as blogmate Grey’s review of the draft. Here are links to other league members’ posts:

RotoProfessor

Fantasy Baseball Generals

Greener on the Other Side

Drafting the worst team vs. the best team possible proved to be a much tougher undertaking than standard FLB but it also proved more rewarding and entertaining.

A quick recap of rules before I go into my roster and draft strategy. It’s a 10 team mixed league universe with the standard roster of C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/UTIL/9P with 5 bench slots. Weekly roster changes.

Hitting:

AB (High = 10 points), R (Low), HR (Low), RBI (Low), K (High), AVG (Low)

Any team ABs < 5200 receive prorated stats @ 550 ABs of .320 AVG/120 R/35 HR/120 RBI/50 K

Pitching:

IP (High = 10 points), L (High), HR allowed (High), ERA (High), WHIP (High), K (Low)

Maximum – 180 starts

My draft strategy was to focus on low HR/RBI players with 500+ AB potential in the first couple rounds with preference toward typically strong positions of 1B, 3B, and OF. This surplus of AB with low power could hopefully be cashed in by using 300 AB platoon types in tougher to fill positions like CI and 4th/5th OF as well as support a high K player or two with good power stats. I also wanted to draft several multi-position players so I had flexibility when my craptastic players got the benchings they deserved. For pitchers, I focused on low K rate starters who have some job security (say, 2nd to 4th starter).

Time will tell if this strategy works out but I was very successful at executing it. See below for the draft results. I snagged three light-hitting OFs in the first four rounds (Taveras, Bourn, Owens) that combined for 4 HRs in 2007! Taveras and Bourn look like they should go for 900+ ABs and Owens should be able to kick in at least 300. I was also able to get 2 SS Razzball legends in Adam Everett and Cristian Guzman who are set to be everyday anchors. Was able to get versatile Brendan Ryan (2B/SS/3B), Esteban German (2B/3B/OF), and Pablo Ozuna (3B/OF) at good value. Snagged two K machines in Jack Cust (41% of 2007 AB!) and Mike Cameron (160 last year). Cust is going to feel like a big swinging dick in my fantasy OF - probably the same way Jack Clark felt on the 1985 Cardinals.

I didn’t take a pitcher until the 9th round but feel like I’ve got a number of guys who’ll be good for 20+ awful starts including Kyle Kendrick, John Denks, and two of the terrible Mariner trio (Batista and Washburn - Silva went early).

Here are the draft results & rosters. (Click on the image for better resolution)

So what do you think? Which team do you like the least, ur, most?

What you say, you need fantasy baseball sleepers for 2008? You’re looking to get some value at your fantasy draft. Yeah, you and every other schmohawk who’s reading this. Luckily, there’s enough crap out there to distract enough people. So here’s a quick breakdown of 2008 fantasy baseball sleepers for every position. If you want their projections, check the “Players by Position” dropdown on the left side or download Rudy Gamble’s 2008 Player Rater, it’s free, viral and virus-free as far as I can tell. BTW, we’ve covered some of these dudes in past sleeper articles here, here , here and finally here. This list is going to be quick and to the point (unlike this intro).

CATCHERS

Ramon Hernandez – He’s back and his parents didn’t feel the need to spell his first name backwards, so there’s that. (Retire, Nomar, and go prepare a Cobb Salad for Mia.)

Carlos Ruiz – Geovany Soto’s now being touted like he’s the coming Messiah and J.R. Towles might be okay, but you really shouldn’t be going caca-cuckoo for any rookie catchers. You know where your misplaced love should be focused? Ruiz. He could put up Posada numbers with a handful of steals to boot. You’re welcome.

FIRST BASEMEN

Conor Jackson – He’s looking at everyday duty without Tony Clark looming. And, weighing in at 540 lbs. and stepping over the top rope at seven feet-four inches, Tony Clark looms. Conor stops looking over his shoulder and does something. C.J.’s still young, btw.

Casey Kotchman – If I say one more time that Magic recovered from AIDS quicker than Casey recovered from mono, I’m going to hell. Kotchman’s back, ya’ll.

SECOND BASEMEN

Alberto Callaspo — Why won’t Grudzielanek retire? I blame the Royals.

Dustin Pedroia – A Red Sox under the radar after winning ROY? Um, kinda. He’s being undervalued. Whatevs, grab him.

Robinson Cano – A Yankee without farkin’ bees swarming around him? Yeah, sorta. He’s the homer/RBI cheese to your middle infielders’ steal macaronis.

SHORTSTOPS

Yunel Escobar — Here’s what I said months ago, “His OBP hovered around .380 for his career in pro ball and he has decent speed and power. He could easily be a poor man’s Renteria. I know, that doesn’t sound that enticing, but there’s a place for that.” Damn, I got wisdom.

Miguel Tejada – Okay, not exactly a sleeper in the conventional sense, but he’s not done. He ripped up DR’s winter ball in the offseason and he’s playing with something to prove (that he’s urinating clean).

THIRD BASEMEN

Alex Gordon – Disregard last season and give him another shot; in ’09, he’s not going to be cheap.

Edwin Encarncion  – I never thought I’d say this, but I actually like Edwin Encarncion a lot this year. I got hate in my heart for him because he doesn’t run out routine popups and Dusty may get sick of that shizz, but here’s to Edwin hustling this year.

OUTFIELDERS

Matt Diaz – So what he’s got a rep for killing only lefties, you can’t make roster moves? Slot him in against lefties. FYhoo, I think he hits both sides this year.

Luke Scott – Anyone with the first name Luke can play baseball. Just not in the majors (Luke Appalling, excluded). I hesitated putting Scott on this list, but he gets a shot this year. Worth a late round flier to take a gamble. (Full disclosure: I try to only give advice I would follow, and I won’t draft Luke in any league, so, well, now you know.)

Michael Bourn – I’ve covered Bourn so much, he’s moving into mancrush territory.

Carlos Quentin – I don’t even know if he has a job. Let’s hope he does, because last year wasn’t indicative of his talent.

Shane Victorino – I’ve  touted Victorino to the point where I’m not even sure he’s a sleeper anymore. Anyway, I would/will draft Victorino as my 3rd outfielder. You have to have Victorino on your team this year. I may start a running piece on my love for The Flying Hawaiian. I got lots of love to give.

STARTERS

Adam Wainwright – Look at his splits from last year. Took him three months to recover from that closer experiment and he was on point after the All-Star break. (He burned me in the 1st half of last year too, you gotta give him another chance.)

Manny Parra – You want this year’s Yovani? Parra will make everyone’s list next year. You get him this year, especially in keepers.

Zach Greinke –  If  he takes his mental health pills every day, he could be a force this year. Could the Royals be this year Brewers? Perhaps, Ms. Cleo.

CLOSERS

Carlos Marmol – He’s dealing and the Cubs (specifically Lou) want to win.

Joey Devine – I’m not convinced Devine won’t lay a turd baby at any moment, but Huston’s either moving on or getting injured.

Jeremy Accardo – If BJ’s hurting at any point in Spring Training, Accardo’s not a sleeper. You draft him like he’s your number two closer.

Aaron Heilman — Sorry, Mets fans, Wagner got old last year. Heilman gets at least fifteen saves this year. Act accordingly.

Al Reyes – Why doesn’t someone book a cruise for Grudzielanek and Percival? I blame the Rays.

Last name that I want to highlight:

Scott Baker – I haven’t seen much buzz about this dude, so I figured I’d drop him in at the end. I have nothing to say, except in 143.2 innings his K/BB was 102/29. Read those numbers one more time. Now he’s not ringing up 200 Ks this year, but that strikeout to walk ratio is a magical first step to finding value where others may not see it.

There’s been a Lima Plan (Low Investment Mound Aces) invented by the great Ron Shandler, the Zima Plan invented by the presumably tipsy Matthew Berry, the Punt One Category probably invented by someone who realized they forgot to draft steals, the Balanced Team Theory, the Punt Two Categories (probably a leaguemate to the Punt One Category guy who just couldn’t stand being upstaged), the Forget When Your Draft is and Let it Autodraft Strategy, etc.  Yesterday, our very own Rudy Gamble went over his reasoning behind why you should draft a starting pitcher in the first three rounds. Today, we’ll stop the madness and just give you proper drafting strategy. It’s called Performance Enhancing Drafting Strategy or PEDS, for short.

PEDS has five basic steps.  If you follow these steps, you will place near the top in all of your leagues. No plan is foolproof because, unfortunately, they still have to play the games. Injuries happen. Carlos Penas happen. Ryan Brauns happen. But PEDS puts you in the best position possible to win coming out of your draft. Okay, onto the steps:

1. Never draft a pitcher with your first two picks. I know; Rudy Gamble just gave you legitimate reasons why you should draft a pitcher early. Yeah, and Gamble ended up with Teixeira as his second round pick in the fantasy baseball writers’ league when he still could have done his facocta “Draft a Pitcher in the first three rounds” strategy and got Peavy. He only drafted Santana because he was determined to get Santana or Peavy, so with the fifth pick he had to take Santana. (BTW, he traded his second overall pick to get the fifth pick because he wanted to take Santana and he didn’t want to commit a 2nd overall pick to Johan. I would’ve liked to see what would have happened if the fourth overall pick off the board was Santana, then Gamble probably would’ve taken Peavy with the fifth.) Anyway, you don’t want to put yourself in such a hole on offense by taking a pitcher first. There’s plenty of pitchers out there you can get later on. You don’t have to turn your Ks to eleven, a seven will do, Pooh.

2. If you don’t get Reyes, don’t worry about steals until late in the draft or after the draft. In other words, if you fail to snag Reyes (who I suggest you take 2nd if he’s there and so are you), steals will be there later. Don’t draft anyone because you’re looking for steals. No Hanley Ramirez, no Carl Crawford, definitely no Eric Byrnes, no Brian Roberts, no Ichiro, no Figgins, please God no Juan Pierre. Cause if you think you’re drafting these guys to get a balanced team, you’re doing the opposite. Drafting one of these schmohawks makes your team unbalanced. After the draft, steals are available whenever you want them. If not on the waiver wire, then through a trade, because you know who loses the most value as soon as the draft is over? Anyone who gives you steals. (To refurbish a Rudy Gamble analogy) Speed guys are like new cars, once they start running, their value diminishes. After the draft, count the days until the guy with Juan Pierre wants to trade him. (BTW, Prepare yourself to go into the All-Star Break needing steals, because if you drafted all of your other positions properly, chances are you can trade some homers for some steals in July. Because, as we know, the guy with 25 homers at the All-Star Break is less likely to get 25 more homers after the break, while someone like Michael Bourn could get you 15 steals in a month.)

3. Never take a closer in the first tier. You should pay for some saves. Just don’t overpay. You need at least two closers, otherwise you’re scrambling the whole season. Grab one of the Cordero brothers or Valverde. Don’t draft Nathan. Not K-Rod. Putz is a no go.

4. Have your offense squared away before the final three rounds and never take an offensive bench player. You’re much better off with a middle reliever or potential closer than Xavier Nady on your bench. Rafael Betancourt or Luis Castillo? Mike Napoli or Tony Pena? Crap or value? See what I’m saying? Good.

5. Draft your second, third and fourth starters only from NL teams. Self-explanatory. No DH, pitchers hitting, much weaker offenses. They bunt in the NL! Here’s a quick scenario, it’s your turn to draft and you’re trying to choose between A.J. Burnett and Brett Myers, who do you choose? Ian Snell or Chien-ming Wang? Do you see how easy this is?

If you follow these five simple steps, I guarantee you will be in the top three in your league battling for your championship. PEDS is so easy and good; it should be illegal. You’re welcome.