Fantasy Baseball Advice

Chris Tillman’s line yesterday was nothing to sneeze at — 6 IP, 5 ER, 10 baserunners — more like gag.  Sometimes it takes one to get roofied before you fully understand what rookie pitchers can do to you.  I point the rookie pitchers out.  They have upside — hey, look at Happ, he’s been good — but I haven’t owned one since Hochevar.  I love rookie hitters though.  As mentioned before, rookie hitters go 0-for-20, you drop them — no harm, no foul.  You get a Tillman start and you end up walking like you were just jumping hurdles.  So that brings me to, Brian Matusz.  He’s been dazzling in Double-A.  As with most young pitchers, he’ll probably be limited on his pitch count/innings, so I wouldn’t expect more than 8-10 starts.  Then throw in the fact that he’ll have tough matchups and you should proceed with caution, but worth a flier in 12 team leagues?  Sure, if expectations are in check.  Or you can do like I did when I pulled the ol’ “You gotta use your waiver claim, sucker” trick with Matusz.  Let me explain the unfortunately named “You gotta use your waiver claim, sucker” trick.  I rushed out and grabbed Matusz off waivers, then the next day I dropped him so someone (<– the sucker) uses their waiver claim to get roofied.  Ah, yes.  That stings.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Zach Greinke – 5 IP, 6 ER, 9 Ks, 13 baserunners.  For the first time in a long time, I’m actually interested in who will win the AL Cy Young.  Sorry, just being a normal baseball fan there.  Won’t let it happen again.

Justin Verlander – 8 IP, 5 ER, 8 Ks, 10 baserunners.  Will see Greinke there at the AL Cy Young finish line.

Willy Aybar – 2 HRs.  I looked at him on waivers in one of my leagues on Sunday, but his playing time is so erratic I decided against it.  Sonavawaivers!

Scott Kazmir – 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 Ks.  I’ll take this start every time out from Kazmir.  Whether I get it is a whole different thing.

Edinson Volquez – Out until 2011 with Tommy John surgery.  During the preseason, I said to avoid Volquez.  Can’t blame me.  Blame Dusty.

Adrian Beltre – His return is earmarked for Tuesday.  If you find yourself salivating at the thought of Beltre’s return, you might be a St. Bernard.

Andrew McCutchen – The Dread Pirate hit 3 HRs on Sunday.  One homer yesterday.  Tomorrow, The Dread Pirate cures scurvy.

Carlos Marmol – Got the save yesterday because Gregg has a tired arm.  Somehow a tired arm is worse than when an arm falls to sleep.  Weird!

Mat Latos – 7 IP, 2 ER vs. the Braves.  Maybe the Braves are *pinkie to mouth* Latos intolerant.

Will Venable – There couldn’t be a more yawnstipating outfielder, but the Padres hit him third yesterday and he’s been hot (3 homers in his last five games, almost .350 in his last 7 games.).  If he reminds you of Hairston, then lambda! (Lambda is the Greek letter for wavelength.  When someone says something you are thinking, you say lambda.  In other words, you’re on the same wavelength.  The girls love it…. Really, really nerdy girls.)

Elijah Dukes – 2-for-4 as he continues to start every day.  If you’re reading this while you’re standing, sit down.  I want to talk to you.  After you’ve been burned a few times, I know it’s hard to trust again.  I’ve been there.  But this isn’t a trust exercise.  Dukes doesn’t need to catch your falling body.  Stop using stall statements such as, “I’ll pick him up when he gets hot.”  Those are counterproductive, friend.  Pick him up now, if you need outfield help.

Aaron Harang – 7 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 10 Ks. Maybe I’m a strikeout whore (as I pimp myself out for saves), but I’ll take 10 Ks with 4 earned. By Harang, I’ll take it and like it.

Brett Anderson – 7 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 Ks.  Other than two starts vs. the Sawx and the Yanks, when he should’ve been benched anyway, he’s been dominant since his last start of June.  He gets the Royals next.

Matt Cain – 8 IP, 4 ER, but took the loss.  He’ll be in this afternoon’s post about FIP.  You can hardly wait.  Yes, you can.

C.J. Wilson – 1/3 IP, 3 ER.  That killed my day yesterday.  Total staff inflection.  I guess it’s one way to get Frank Frank back in the closer role.

Neftali Feliz – 2 IP, 4 Ks.  His name sounds like an Aztec God… Neftali, from the town of Velocity, the creator of Ks…  He looked unhittable last night.  Will be fun to see him start next year. Until then…

Melvin Mora – Upset with a lack of playing time, he lashed out at manager, Dave Trembley.  So Trembley asked Mora to make out the lineup card for yesterday’s game and Mora benched himself in favor of Wigginton.

Miguel Montero – 2-for-5, HR yesterday.  Hey, maybe Hinch got the memo to bench Snyder indefinitely, though I’m suspicious.

Dan Haren – 7 IP, 5 ER vs. the Mets.  Is it bad that I took this as a good 2nd half Haren start?  Yeah, probably.  Can’t someone sneak into his house and turn the calenders back two months?

Mark Reynolds – The Mini-Donkey show is hot!  Yesterday, 2 homers for the Mini-Donkey, one to the opposite field in Metco.  As frequent commenter, Elijah, pointed out, Reynolds has 4 ding-dongs at Metco.  That’s one off the lead for all of Metco, including Mets.  Reynolds is also only two behind Pujols for the NL league.  That’s 32 salamis. (Yes, my attempt was to try and cover all possible Google searches for “donkey show is hot” + ding-dongs + salamis + “behind Pujols.”  Welcome, Google Searcher!  We won’t judge you here.)

Yesterday, I went over the top 100 for fantasy baseball in the 2nd half.  Today, I’ll look at some 2nd half hitters who should be better than they were in the first half.  To come up with this list, I scoured the last three years of post-All-Star Break numbers, ran it through a supercomputer that’s bigger than your Peugeot, pasted the supercomputer-generated names to my shirt like dollar bills on a wedding dress then went to a palm reader to help me pick ten names out of the thousands.  The palm reader’s name was Erica Karabell.  Tomorrow, I’ll go over the fantasy baseball pitchers who have been notoriously stronger in the 2nd half.  Anyway, here’s the best 2nd half fantasy baseball hitters for 2009:

Mike Napoli – Last year, he led the United States and Canada in OPS after the break for hitters with more than 100 ABs.  Vlad the ‘97 Impaler and Torii are both hurting, which will help Napoli see more time.

Alex Rodriguez – Everyone’s favorite frosted hair 3rd baseman.  Hit 24 homers in 263 ABs in the 2007 2nd half.  Hit 16 homers in 2008.

Jimmy Rollins – In 2007, he swiped 26 bags in the 2nd half.  Last year, Rollins had the third most steals in the 2nd half (23) behind only Taveras and Reyes.

Carlos Pena – 26 homers in 2007’s 2nd half.  17 homers in the 2nd half last year.  This year I say he hits 15 to give him 39 for the year.  Why?  Cause Pena seems like a 39 homer guy.  Yes, it’s that scientific.

Pat Burrell – In the first half of 2007, Burrell looked done — hitting .215 and only 11 homers.  In the 2nd half, he hit 19 homers and .295.  There’s very few cheap outfielders that can hit 20 homers in the 2nd half.  Burrell’s one.  And as any girl from the University of Miami in the late 90s will tell you, whereever Burrell is, Huff’s not far behind…

Aubrey Huff – Hey, it’s Pat the Bat’s fingercuff partner.  In 2007 and 2008, Huff had a .686 and .875 OPS in the 1st half, respectively.  Then .897 and .964 in the 2nd half.

Alex Rios – Did you know that after Pujols Rios hit the most extra base hits in the 2nd half last year?  Stephen Drew (<– Bonus name!) was third.  Both in front of Manny’s crazy, hormonal-fueled 2nd half.

Luke Scott – Career pre-All-Star break numbers .241/.329/.461 — Post-All-Star break numbers .299/.386/.558.  I see it now, next March someone in the comments is going to say, “I’m punting outfielders and taking Luke Scott late.  I’m awesome!!!”

Ty Wigginton – Honestly, not even sure if he’ll get playing time.  So I’m not saying trade for him, but if he’s on waivers, play close attention.  In the last three seasons, his 2nd half OPSs have been .990, .841 and .915, respectively.

Adam LaRoche – What’s Dusty Baker without a 1st base, 3rd base, hitting, pitching and bench coach?  What would a list of post-All-Star break hitters be without Adam LaRoche?  Nada, nada, nada damn thing…

Lastings Milledge was sent to the minors yesterday clearing room for Elijah Dukes to cover for him in center and probationary hearings.  Luckily, on his way out of town, Milledge stopped by Razzball HQ with some “word science.”  After you read the rhymes Milledge dropped, feel free to drop him.

Dukes has a good 3 days, so he gets a buffer?
I’m da original Bowden Fluffer!
My rhymes are so hard they break bats,
Why you go out and sign that Three-True Outcome Fats?
To the minors, you’re sending moi?
I’m declaring a fatwa!

Don’t push me, cuz I’m close to the edge,
I’m trying not to lose my head,
Uh huh ha ha ha…
It’s like a jungle sometimes it makes me wonder,
Why MLB didn’t let this team go under.

Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Tom Glavine – Career might be over.  Take a moment, go to the front lawn, pocket some dirt in honor of Glavine’s career, then drop him.

Chris Carpenter – From the top 60 starters post, “There’s plenty of pitchers to choose from, give Carpenter a year to prove himself.  That’s all, one year.  Or maybe until the All-Star Break.  Just don’t draft him out of the gate.” Do I need to continue?  Carpenter left yesterday’s game with a strained oblique.  That’s vaguely a belly ache.  I wouldn’t drop him, but I would hope he gets placed on the DL so you can at least free up a spot.

Jesse Litsch – Wasn’t worth owning prior to forearm tightness and now he’s on the 15-day DL.  Call in Reggie Roby.

Xavier Nady – Left with elbow pain.  In the 1st basemen to target post, I said, ” I think (Swisher) takes the job from Nady when Nady’s exploited for not being what he was last year.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Nady’s one of the bigger busts this year outside of Billy Butler’s moobs.   Nady was injury-prone prior to last year and last year was a career year.  Do the math!

Nick Swisher – 4th HR yesterday.  Read again what I wrote about Nady.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – One inning, 5 earned.  I’m not going to quote or link to anything, but I told you to avoid Dice-K this year.  You do what you do, I do what I do.  Word on the Bean Streets is he’s suffering from “arm fatigue.”  Clay Buchholz may be getting the call to replace him for a couple of starts.

Scott Podsednik – Jeopardy contestant, “Questionable Manager Moves for $100.”  Alex Trebek, “The answer is ‘The White Sox signed Scott Podsednik.’”  Contestant, “How could Ozzie Guillen find a worst centerfielder, leadoff man than DeWayne Wise?”

Vladimir Guerrero – Admitted this offseason to lying about his age and is now coping to a Latin 34.  He seems like a nice guy, but, man, he’s been looking like a Latin 40.

Ricky Romero – 8 IP, 2 ER.  C’mon, that’s a made-up name!  It’s too perfect.  Good results for “Ricky” so far as he’s kept his walks in check.  His minor league numbers say trouble isn’t too far away.  In AL-Only leagues, he’s worth a flier, but don’t get too excited.

Glen Perkins – Also 8 IP, 2 ER.  Another great start for The Pancake House.  Again, don’t invest too heavily.  He’s like Slowey-lite.

Nelson Cruz – Hit his 4th homer.  If he’s on waivers in any leagues, he shouldn’t be.  If you have a power void on your team, I’d trade for Cruz.

A.J. Burnett – No hitter into the 7th.  I’d look to trade him if you’re fine on starters.  Five dollars says he doesn’t get through May.

Carlos Villanueva – 1 IP, 3 ER.  Kazaam!

Javier Vazquez – 12 Ks in the loss.  Ah, those patient Marlins hitters.

Emilio Bonifacio – 2-for-5 to drop his average to .485.  The correction is complete!

Melvin Mora – To the DL with a hamstring injury.  Wigginton will field the spot for a few weeks.  That’s no endorsement of Wigginton unless you’re desperate.  Then again, if you were playing Mora, you probably are desperate.

Manny Parra – 6 IP, 3 ER.  Two runs scored on walks to Taveras and Hairston, two guys that need to be knocked down to take a pitch.  In summation, Parra really needs to cut down on his walks.

Chris Davis – 2nd HR in two days.  Now don’t you feel bad for hating him three days ago?

Mark Reynolds – HR yesterday.  Okay, Davis 2, Reynolds 1… Now go to your corners and when you hear the bell come out swinging.

Jacoby Ellsbury – Stole his fourth bag as he bats .194.  I could see him hitting .260 and stealing 40 this year.  Oh, and Jacoby Ellsbury says, “It’s April 15th, do your taxes!”

Yesterday, Luis Ayala was acquired by Mets. You know that thing about the girl you don’t know is better than the one you’re with? The grass is greener thing. Yeah, the Mets just got themselves a new girl. Why? Wagner’s old and he just had a setback (of course) so he’s not coming back as soon as thought. I’d peg mid-September as a fair timetable his for return. For now, it’s still anyone’s game for saves. Heilman, Kunz, Feliciano, Orosco, Mr. Met, Ralph Kiner, et al. They might all be better options than Ayala, but they’re not the new girl. The only reason why we’re concerned with this is because the Mets will win a lot of games. If someone can separate themselves from the pack, they could get a decent amount of saves while Wagner’s on the mend. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Hideki Matsui – Set to return on Tuesday. I’d prefer a hot hand, then a vet who’s just returning from injury. Especially a vet that has averaged a HR every 25 at-bats for his career. Not sure what the excitement is, but I guess it’s a Yankee thing. How’s Jeter treating you, Yankee fans?

Clayton Kershaw – 6 IP, 6 Ks, 1 ER. Should’ve had a win, but Braun took Chan Ho out of the Park.

Chris Dickerson – Hit a homer the other day. Went 3-for-5 yesterday. I think I’ve officially beat Dickerson into the ground.

Chris Davis – About to get third base eligibility if Hank Blalock can return and stay healthy at first. Yes, it’s an if the size of the Grand Canyon.

Andre Ethier – 2 HRs yesterday. He’s been starting over Juan Pierre on most days and has 4 HRs in his last four starts.  Torre sits him against lefties, which makes your job easy for when to start him.

Carlos Pena – HR yesterday. Four HRs last week. When I ranked him 46th in the top 100 for fantasy baseball’s 2nd half, here’s what I said, “For those looking for someone who can hit 20 HRs in the 2nd half. Here’s one.” And that’s me cutting and pasting me!

Javier Vazquez – 8 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks. June, 7.48 ERA; July, 5.65; August, you dropped him. Hey, Vazquez, how about you buy me dinner first?

Melvin Mora – 5-for-6 with 2 HRs. As I mentioned, in this week’s Buy/Sell, Mora’s feces has been smelling like Reese’s Pieces.

Edinson Volquez – 7 IP, 0 ER. This doesn’t mean he’ll go on another run like in the beginning of the year, he’s just trying to find his way to a 3.50 ERA. He’s currently at 2.73.

Rickie Weeks – Left with a thumb injury. Nomar, “I feel ya, man!” If Weeks is hitting the DL is the point, you play the Pass Line.

Alexis Rios – 5-for-6, there will be a point during this offseason when I’ll write a post making a case for Rios being a sleeper for next year. Just comment, “No.”

Roy Oswalt – Threw a one hitter over 8 IP. Looks like he put his hip injury behind him (or beside him).

Ty Wiggington – Accounted for all three of the Astros’s runs yesterday and this week he went 9/3/9/.560. There was a bit of a Wiggington Fan Club forming yesterday in the comments. I’m assuming future meetings of the WFC will be taking place in the octagon.

B.J. Upton – HR yesterday. May all your pitchers pitch at Petco and all your hitters hit at Arlington. Amen.

Jensen Lewis – Got the save yesterday as Perez entered the game in the seventh. Lewis is being viewed as the closer, whether he’s the best guy for the job is irrelevant. If you’re holding Perez for saves, you’re only going to get the very rare situational ones.

Adam Lind – HR, 3-for-6. Averaging a HR in just over five games since his recall and hitting .330.

Todd Jones – Went back to the DL, but it looks like Rodney is the closer now anyway. (Rodney is now sure to give up five runs just because I wrote he’s the closer.)

Brandon Moss – Left the game with an ankle injury. Now he may gather some moss.

Dan Wheeler – Got the save on Sunday when Balfour couldn’t get the job done. (Balfour did intentionally walk Hamilton with the bases loaded. This is the only time this has happened to anyone, except Barry Bonds in the last 60 years, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Actually, they didn’t say it, but they could’ve. Here’s some other things Elias Sports Bureau could’ve said this week around the office, “Tuesday was the first time Jim in Accounting didn’t call his wife three times before noon,” “Thursday marked the seventeenth time since March that Sally, Burt’s secretary, dropped a call” and “Fridays will no longer be Casual Fridays for Peter because he can’t tell the difference between pants and sweatpants.”

Delmon Young has 7 home runs for the season, but 3 in the last seven games. Mouth on the left side of the screen says, “Tor-.” Mouth on the right side of the screen says, “-rid.”  …Torrid. Capital T, lowercase -orrid. (As if there’s any other kind of -orrid.) This is a whole lot better than horrid, which he was the first half of the season. Delmon has jowls of a near-20 HR hitter or so say just about every fantasy baseball ‘pert in the beginning of the year. Composite projections look like 76/17/88/.290/15. That’s Shandler, Baseball Prospectus, Rotowire and our own Rudy Gamble’s Point Shares. (See, we only sound arrogant like we don’t read/listen to any other ‘perts, but that’s not true. We’re just aware you’re not that interested in reading how we come to our conclusions. And even less interested in hearing how you are uninterested.) But right now Delmon Young is at 61/7/52/.290/13. So does this mean all of the ‘perts are wrong on Delmon or will he go on an absolute tear in the final 40 games? I’d say a little bit of both probably. He’ll fall low on RBIs, slightly higher on steals, but HRs can be made up fast and I’m buying that he gets close to 17. Anyway, here’s some players to buy and sell for fantasy baseball:

BUY

Marlon Byrd – Don’t Cha wish your last week was fly like me… Don’t Cha!

Melvin Mora - I’ve never liked Mora. Just doesn’t seem like he cares much. But he’s hitting third on the Orioles (I know, great shakes!) and he’s hit .384 since the All-Star break with 6 Melvins and 32 Moras.

Joey Devine -Season numbers look incredible. How incredible, Grey? Tell us! Okay, but don’t sit on my lap. It’s weird. 32 Ks in 27.2 IP, a .98 ERA and a .98 WHIP. For those that read the FBHOF posts and have an encyclopedic memory, like moi, you won’t need this reminder, but go check out this FBHOF post and read about Eck’s historic season. Identical ERA/WHIP ain’t easy, son. (Not son as in I’m your Dad, but you were just sitting on my lap.)

Brad Ziegler – *shakes fist at defaced poster of Orel Hershiser* Don’t worry, you still got value, Ziegler. A whole lot more than that other German reliever, Heilman.

Jensen Lewis – I love Swensen’s! (Editor’s note: Swensen’s did not pay for Grey’s endorsement. In fact, if they knew, they would probably request Grey keep their name out of his mouth.)

Matt Capps – Only about a week away. If he was dropped in your league, I’d pick him up if you have room. Nope, no room! Sure, just move the camping gear out of the trunk.

Jeff Kent – So everyone pegs this D-Bag to get 17 Hrs, he’s at 11. And that was before Manny. I just grabbed him in a 15 team ‘pert league.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Yes, his first name sounds like a leaky bum, but in August he’s batting .310 with 2 HRs and a 1 steal.

Ty Wiggington – Another hot 2nd baseman. Actually, he’s been hot for a 3rd baseman. Surprising factoid of the day, he’s only 30. I would’ve guessed 37.

Wandy Rodriguez – No Rhyme or Reason, “Yeah, I can talk. Whaddup?” “I’m picking up Wandy.” No Rhyme or Reason, “That makes sense to me.”

Dan Wheeler/Grant Balfour – I’m grabbing Wheeler first, and only after he’s gone am I looking at Balfour. UPDATE: Since I wrote this, the Rays announced Balfour would fill-in. Saves are the bottom line, so he should be the first one grabbed. I still think Wheeler will get a handful of chances.

Jeff Francoeur – As I like to say about one of my female neighbors, “What a bust.” But the other day, he hit his first home run in over month. If you didn’t have Frenchy throughout his razztastic season and he’s sitting on your league’s waiver wire, he could have value in the last 40 games.

Chris Dickerson – Okay, so I touted him here and here in the last day. Get Off My Dickerson And Tell Yo B**** To Come Here. (BTW, **** Weren’t asterisks to look below the post. That was to fill in for “itch.”)

SELL

Jed Lowrie – The newest recipient of the tooting of the Sons of Sam’s Horn. With one home run and zero steals in 122 at-bats, I wouldn’t even be talking about him if he was on any other team.

Chris Young – Looks like a lost season and I’d just drop him to waivers, except in the deepest of leagues.

Jorge Campillo – Getting off here, fellas. Next stop, Pueblo de Wandy Rodriguez.

Phil Hughes – Holy heffin’ heff, ESPN JUST!!! announced that the NY Daily News announced that the Yankees might announce Hughes might take over for Giese. I guess it’s better than their usual announcement that Hank Steinbrenner farted.

D.J. Carrasco – First he played the skinny, cracked out buddy in those teen comedies and now he might take Contreras’s spot in the rotation. He’s worth a flier in AL-Only leagues, that’s about it.

Paul Byrd – Yes, being on the Sox gives him a bit more value. But he doesn’t strikeout anyone. Last year, in nearly 200 innings he K’d 88 guys (only two of those were Adam Dunn, but 16% of them came in interleague). He’s onto some similar yawnstipating numbers this year. He’s given up 23 HRs compared to his schmohawkian 56 Ks. Has he been good recently? Yup. Could he be good against the Jays tonight? Perhaps. In the long run, Koko B. Ware because the Byrd man will kill you.

Troy Percival – After the game, he was seen in crutches (and some fly-ass Zubaz). Percival lost nearly a month with a sore hammy. Now he’s on crutches (in fly-ass Zubaz) as he heads to the DL and he’s old as dog balls. I’d drop him if your DL-spot is Nissan Sentra crowded.

Daniel Cabrera – Member that girl you slept with who bugged out and put together a future photo album, which was pictures of Ken and Barbie posing as you and the girl in the future?  Dooooode! Cabrera’s the pitching equivalent of that crazy ass chick!