Fantasy Baseball Advice

I’m admittedly not a fan of rookie catchers. There’s not a long history of success, Piazza and… Um… Well… Benito Santiago. Granted in fantasy baseball, you don’t need a whole lot from a catcher for him to have a good year. But this is something you can work to your advantage. Rudy’s catcher projections for the BAO are 47/13/57/.273/2. (That’s Best Available Option from waivers, not a pork bun. The BAO is basically saying if you drop Posada, this what you’re probably going to get off of waivers.). Some close statistical fits: Paul Lo Duca, Johnny Estrada, AJ Pierzynski. So if Geovany Soto gets you 67/25/87/.285/7 (which are unreal numbers, but I’m going with the ceiling for this experiment to prove a point), this puts you waaaaaay above the BAO for catcher. As I understand these honkytonk numbers, you are a plus 20/12/30/.012/5 from crap. And, by crap, I mean that’s if you pickup LoDuca, Estrada or Pierzynski. If you were to pickup Salty, and he gets better numbers than those three schmohawks, then you are ahead of the game. “What do I do with these geeky numbers, Grey? My eyes are bleeding!” Yeah, I know. I like to leave the numbers to Rudy, but I’m proving a point here. So if you have a glaring weakness, say your fifth OF is Luke Scott, you trade Soto for Torii Hunter and pickup Salty. Now the other guy’s psyched because he got Geovany Soto, who’s, like, better than gravity and can cure blindness, and gave you Torii Hunter, an aging outfielder. Well, if you paid attention, you just made your team better by trading Soto for Double I because the difference between Torii and Luke Scott is more than Soto and Salty. Soto would have to significantly outperform his projections to match the expectations of Torii. If you could get a reliable player who’ll fill a need, take it. Okay, here’s some more guys to buy and sell for your fantasy baseball team:

BUY

Wladimir Balentien – Wlad the Impaler got the call from the Mariners and I say he’s an immediate pickup in AL-Only leagues and worth a flier in deep mixed leagues. As with any flier, there’s plenty of risk so don’t drop anyone you might regret.

Chase Headley – No, he didn’t get called up yet. No, he’s not doing that well in the minors right now. Edmonds, which I believe is Slavic for injury-prone, is the only thing standing in Headley’s way.

Ian Stewart – I’ve already mentioned that Tulowitzki’s injury might force Atkins over to 2nd and Stewart into the bigs. I’d put that ‘might’ at about forty percent chance of a Stewart sighting. In fifteen team leagues and NL-Only, he must be owned now unless you want to risk missing him when he does get the call. In other leagues, ‘waiver’ at your risk, but when he gets the call he will be snatched up as fast as Jobacum.

Reggie Willits – If you need speed and Red Bull ain’t cutting it, here ya go. He’s supposed to be batting in the two hole going forward.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Three games a week are enough to show I care. (BTW, I hate The Beatles.)

Dioner Navarro – Anything goes when it comes to Navarro. (Love Big Daddy Kane.)

Randy Wolf – 37/11 K/BB ration is very good. Pitching in Petco is excellent. Cheap starters on waivers are priceless worth the guckin’ famble.

Scott Baker – Rare when I tout an AL starter, so, ya know, check him out. But be cautious, in his next start he gets the Tigers and he has a sore groin. (I really never thought I’d be writing ‘sore groin.’)

Melky Cabrera – What, you don’t like 15/15 players? He gets there with ease. Sure, I just traded him away, but I also never touch a public bathroom door handle, you gonna do everything I do?

Santiago Casilla – I’ve had him on a team for about two weeks. 7 IPs/0.00/.90/9Ks Your starters can’t start every day. Why not boost your stats while they’re sitting?

Shane Victorino – People are starting to get annoyed with his slow start and lack of playing time. I say buy. Rudy just traded Capps for him. I think it’s a great trade.

Moises Alou – He’ll be back on Friday night. He’s an immediate add in deep leagues.

Robinson Cano – He won’t be a buy low guy for the entire season. You should try and steal him from someone.

Ryan Howard – He won’t bat under .200 for the entire season. He will hit 40 home runs. Go after him.

Rafael Betancourt - Sure, he’s blown a couple of saves, but Borowski isn’t good when he’s healthy. If you can get someone to throw-in Betancourt in a trade, do it.

Jeff Clement - He needs 5 starts or 10 games played. Started yesterday, there’s plans to start him again today. Kenji’s getting a “rest.”

Homer Bailey – If Matt Belise throws a game like he’s capable of, say, two and two-thirds innings with 7 runs allowed, Bailey will be up.

SELL

Brian Burres – Seems worth a pickup in a 30 team AL-Only league, anyone else should use extreme caution. Caveat emptor for those reading in Latin America.

Emil Brown – He’s sitting on 4 walks in a hundred at-bats. Francoeur has five walks. Emil simply had a good RBI month.

Armando Galarraga – *GEEKY NUMBER ALERT* He has an unsustainable BABIP. (Stands for Better Avoid Because I said Pho.)

Jayson Werth – Is he (pinkie to mouth) Werthless? No, but he’s not better than Victorino. He’ll be a faint memory in about a month.

Cliff Lee – I wrote in the comments on one of our posts, “His composite preseason numbers come out to about this: 12-8/4.68/1.43/130. That’s according to every noteworthy fantasy expert. Not simply us (we’re not that egotistical). Rudy goes over this stuff pretty in-depth, but you can start here for a primer. Does this mean Lee can’t breakout because no one saw it coming? No, it doesn’t. It just means there’s less of a chance.” And that’s me quoting me! If you can get Manny for Lee, I’d do it. (Which reminds me, whatever happened to Buddy Lee? I’m no advertising expert, but he was like the first cute advertising icon that wasn’t racist. He was a trailblazer. An icon. He stood for something — dungarees.)

After ten or so years, Rudy and I managed to agree on a trade. Melky Cabrera for Zach Greinke in a ten team mixed league. A fair enough trade in my estimation, but I still waited a day before pulling the trigger. Why? First some backstory (in case you weren’t sufficiently bored at work reading about a trade of Melky and Greinke), Rudy and I are best of friends, and, as any good friends should be, we’re hated fantasy baseball rivals. I’d rather lose a girlfriend to Tom Arnold than lose a league to Rudy. Once we step inside the imaginary world of fantasy baseball, I like him about as much as The Iron Sheik likes B. Brian Blair. (As with all Iron Sheik links, that is NSFW.)

Are all my leaguemates hated rivals? Nah, some are innocuous. The guy in last place who is starting Howie Kendrick for two weeks while he’s on the DL is no competition — innocuous. Some are annoying. The guy in first who streams starts and keeps coming up aces — annoying. Some are harmful. The guy in first that trades Kotchman for Prince Fielder — harmful. But to be a hated rival, you have to be a worthy competitor who is close enough to you that you can hear about how you screwed up a trade for the rest of your life. So I abstained from trades with Rudy for… well, ever.

So why trade now? Needs and it’s a trade that I don’t think could conceivably bite me in the ass too bad. I mean, I’m only giving up Melky. I like him this year, but I don’t see him suddenly becoming a top twenty offensive force. I think he could be a cheap 15/15/.285 player. On my team, Bill Hall will fill in for Melky, so it’s a downgrade, but not terrible. Most importantly, I needed starters. Right now I’m starting Jair Jurrjens with my last pitching spot. Now before Jair’s minions come out of the webwork, I obviously like Jurrjens, as well. But he’s risky moving forward in a ten team league. With the addition of Greinke, I’m not going to drop Jair, but I think I might have to at some point because he’s unproven at this level. Do I think Zach Grienke is headed for 20 wins and a nothing ERA? Nah, probably not. I’m just hoping he doesn’t take the mound in his next start wearing a rainbow wig, holding a sandwich board that has a psalm written on it in silver highlighter. If he does, I’m sure I’ll hear about it for the rest of my life.

RUDY’S TAKE

This was the equivalent of the Yankees trading with the Sawx. I don’t even like the thought of us trading – it’s like the episodes of Tom & Jerry when they were friends. But when I got offered M. Cabrera for a Royals pitcher, how could I say no? Oh, it’s Melky not Miguel….goddamnit. Larry King is right on about Cabreras…

Even with Melky, this trade works. My pitching staff in this league is STACKED. I had 12 undroppable pitchers – Peavy, Harang, Vazquez, Wainwright, Cueto, Greinke, Rivera, F-Cordero, Capps, Street, B-Wilson, Betancourt – meaning I had no bench slots for hitters. I lucked out over the first couple weeks as Kelly Johnson and Matt Kemp both had great days at times I may have benched them.

I figured Greinke and Cueto are lowest men on the totem pole and that the Zach Attack had more trade value. A swap for Johnny Damon with another leaguemate was declined. I figured Melky was better than nothing – I already got him on two expert league teams anyway. He can start for me until Bourn gets back on track and then I’ll probably rotate him in and out. My pitching staff doesn’t need Greinke – the only category I don’t have a 10 in is Wins which is his worst category anyway (after Saves of course).

Despite the unclean feeling that comes with trading w/ my bitter rival Grey, I think this is a win-win trade even if Greinke goes bat shit again….

These are the players you want to drop, add or simply hold onto for your fantasy baseball roster.

DROPS

Every Baltimore Oriole not named Nick Markakis, Ramon Hernandez or Brian Roberts – This team looks atrocious. Millar’s best is behind him, and he was never that good, shortstop is a black hole, Mora is mediocre and will get injured soon, forget Adam Jones for now, I don’t even like Luke Scott anymore as a deep sleeper.

Ronny Paulino – Doumit looks to be getting the starts against righties. Overall, there’s mostly righties. Look elsewhere.

ADDS

Mark Lowe – Second in line (presumably) Sean Green (not the Jew that retired) then Eric O’Flaherty. Then again, Miguel Batista got the save the other night, so, ya know, don’t invest too heavily.

Jair Jurrjens – He’s still very raw, but I liked what I’ve seen so far. I would take a flier, if there’s room.

Brian Bannister – The other day, when asked about Bannister, I said he was like last year’s Maddux. I stand by that. There is a place for that on certain teams.

Ryan Church – The Mets are outfield poor. In deep leagues, you have to take a look because of the lineup he’s in.

Angel Pagan – Speaking of the Mets, and speaking of deep leagues, NL-onlyers take a look. He’ll be in left until Alou returns.

Joey Gathright – Bourn, Carlos Gomez have to make room — more cheap steals.

Blake DeWitt – In very deep leagues, keep it in the back of your mind that DeWitt was considered the best hitter in the 2004 draft.

Franklin Gutierrez, Billy Butler, Andre Ethier, Melky Cabrera, Nate McLouth, Lastings Milledge – There’s been a lot of discussion on this site about these six fifth outfielders. So with Rudy Gamble’s permission, I’m just going to reprint what he had to say in the comments of this post.

Billy Butler – Best average and RBI of the bunch. Got valuable experience last year. And 1B potential. Only downside vs. the rest is no speed.

Nate McLouth – Best SB and Run potential of the bunch. Enough pop for 15 HR. Enough speed for 30 SB. AVG won’t be great.

Lastings Milledge – Most upside of the group but I’m just not sold on any part of his game. Not a good base stealer. No minor league history of plus power.

Melky Cabrera – By no means a great player but he’s young, has 2 years experience, playing for a running manager in a great lineup, and w/ more job security than the guys below him on this list. I think he ends up 75/15/75/15 with a respectably .280 average.

Franklin Gutierrez – No plus power or speed in his minor league history. I think he may fall short of Melky in all 5 categories. Might have playing time cut into. Grey’s note: I don’t see his playing time cut and I like FraGu’s (<—forced nickname!) promise. I see 70/20/80/.270/20. And maybe someone in the Indians’ brass has been reading Razzball, because Gutierrez moved up to the sixth spot the last two days. Just sayin’.

Andre Ethier – His stats for the past two years are just bleh. 15 HR power and no speed. Probably second to Butler on projected AVG. And there’s no doubt Pierre reclaims his job if Ethier slumps.

Scott Hairston – That’s right, I’m adding another name into the six fifth-outfielder-mix. Hairston never got a fair shake in the desert, but he’s got good pop.

Jose Lopez – If you have an erection for longer than four hours after you pick up Lopez, you should go see a doctor. But he’s hitting number two on the Mariners. So, well, there’s that. Honestly, he’s young and he’s started off hot.

HOLDS

Pedro Martinez – He’s going on the DL for 4-6 weeks. I think it’s probably going to end up closer to 6 weeks because of his age. Then he’ll have to rehab. I could see dropping him, if you have someone already filling your DL slot, but I’m going to hold onto Pedro for now.

Juan Pierre – You drafted him for steals. He’s still going to end up with thirty to forty. The Pierre Situation with Ethier hasn’t been decided yet. You need to hold pat. There’s still 25 more weeks in the season. Chill, people.

Tom Gordon – I hate him with great fervor, but we need to see Lidge come back and be healthy before he moves to a “Drop.”

USA Today might no longer appreciate the insights shared by Larry King in his long-running column but we at Razzball were thrilled when he accepted our invitation to share his thoughts on Fantasy Baseball….

Greetings fellow fantasy baseball enthusiasts! Let me fill you in on a little secret – I’ve been dominating my leagues since I spent a 10th round pick on a young Rogers Hornsby. Chase Utley might not hit .400 like Hornsby but he makes up for it in moxie….My favorite three nicknames in baseball are Boof, Pronk, and Melky…I wouldn’t trade Johan Santana for all the Little Leaguers in China….Talking about baseball fantasies, whatever happened to Morgana the Kissing Bandit?….I think some people are scared off of fantasy baseball because of terms like sabermetrics and WHIP…The most underrated Ray in Tampa Bay is my grade school chum and stickballer extraordinaire Ray Abbandando. Sandy Koufax avoided pitching to him like he was food on Yom Kippur…I nearly crapped my pants when I heard Albert Pujols had a high grade tear in his elbow but that doesn’t say much….I had Renteria once – nothing Penicillin and a trade couldn’t fix….If I was a scout in Latin America, I’d just sign every player named Cabrera or Ramirez….Look up ‘consistent’ in Baseball Prospectus and you’ll see a picture of Brad Ausmus….I don’t care what his middle initial is, there is no better nine-stat contributor than Chris Young…..Frank Thomas doesn’t look a day over 30….Say what you will but Miguel Tejada brought some class to the position of Oriole SS….If I could pick a coach for my fantasy team, it would be Clint Hurdle….The reason behind Eric Byrnes’s breakout season: suspenders….The best draft strategy is to go to the bathroom beforehand….I’ll say this about steroids. If baseball had the same-sized problem with asteroids, there would be a lot more domed stadiums…Best sleeper pick of all time was Nap Lajoie in 1901…