Fantasy Baseball Advice

Manny Ramirez and his brother from another, Aramis, are taking the summer off as planned. If we get in our “Way Back Machine,” we see back in December of ‘07 that I said to look away from Manny. This was before the reports that he was in the best shape of his life and the Sons of Sam Horn turned the media heat up on the hype. What did I say to that? Bologna.  If I may paraphrase myself, I basically said Manny’s Manny and he’s not changing his stripes for an extra two million on a contract. In addition to that, Manny could have a big World Series game and get the extra two million from HankenStein and go play in the Bronx. He knows that. So Manny may get that Xbox Live Clause in his new contract and not even do anything until October. I’m sure Big Papi and him have discussed this at length. Papi, “Manny, you know we can phone in the season and produce in the postseason and be hailed as the best ever clutch performers.” Manny, “Papi, sometimes I get the urge to spork Youk in the neck. Is that weird?” As for Aramis Ramirez, well, he’s in a similar boat, but not an altogether similar point in his career. Aramis could coast until the postseason and the Cubs should make it in a walk. Frankly, I feel like they should move the Cubs to the NL East and close up the Central for the summer, but that’s another story. So will Aramis coast? I’m not convinced. Aramis has proven he loves to hit when the chips have already been eaten (or fill-in some other mixed metaphor). Late last year, Aramis Ramirez knocked the cover off the ball and I could see it happening again. So my advice is Sell on Manny and Buy on Aramis — Ramirez that is. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball players to Buy and Sell:

BUY

Masa Kobayashi – Joe Borowski is out. As I said yesterday in the forums, Kobayashi, Betancourt then Perez, in that order. Cleveland, as a team, has 14 saves on the year. That doesn’t mean they will only have fourteen on the other side of 81 games, but it could. Caveat Kobayashi, Betancourt and Perez.

J.R. Towles – Mentioned him yesterday. If you need a catcher, he’s on waivers in your mixed league. It’s a flier, people. Don’t drop Matt Holliday for him.

Scott Linebrink – Bobby Jenks is reporting soreness in his back. Could lead to nothing, could lead to a DL-stint — ready, set, vulture! You grab Linebrink because you can’t get enough saves, you greedy person you.

Chris Davis – I just wanna keep talking and talking and talking about Chris Davis, don’t you? Oh, mercy, mercy me. Does he have 50 home runs yet? I originally compared him to Dunn. Ain’t that apt? (BTW, “Ain’t that apt?” is the non-sequitur saying I’m putting on my first t-shirt line. If one of ya’ll steals it, so help me…)

Rickie Weeks – I believe in slow walks on the beach, especially in Wildwood, Point Pleasant or Belmar. I believe Hawaii offers Spam, shaved ice and not much else. I believe anything seasoned properly would be delicious, including dogshit. I believe in reading movie reviews after I’ve seen the movie. I believe Jamie Kennedy is a terrible person, but worse of all, unfunny. I believe the only day I wasn’t nostalgic for yesterday was the day I was born and, finally, I believe in Rickie Weeks.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Salty is catching more or less on most days and he hasn’t hit at all to his potential, but if you’re carrying Navarro still, you should be looking at him, because Saltimbocca can be tasty when he’s at the plate (<—-forced!).

SELL

Rich Harden – Not sure who you’re selling this guy to and he’s too good to drop, but the latest news from Harden’s camp (if he were, ya know, to have a camp) is that Harden’s going through a dead arm period and that’s why his fastball has been, um, less fast. (Isn’t it weird how his dead arm period is better than his injured arm period? You would think the opposite would be true. Or at least I would think it, because I just did.)

Eric Byrnes – Wasn’t that long ago that I told you to Buy. Well, the injury returned and now he might be gone for the season. Hopefully he can make it to Fox’s postseason broadcast team. *fingers sarcastically crossed*

Mark Buehrle – I’ve mentioned how I added him a month or so ago. He’s currently on the top of my “Most Likely to Get Dropped After He Gets Inevitably Beaten Badly” list.

Jeff Keppinger – I could’ve put Jerry Hairston Jr. there, but Keppinger’s name is more incendiary (Word of the Day). These guys seem like they’re falling into a time share. This hurts both of their value.

Clint Barmes – Deer meat sees your hot start and raises you a 4-for-21 slump and Omar Quintanilla.

Pedro Martinez – It’s with regret his name appears here. I loved Pedro. He was a triple threat — flat-out incredible pitcher, an entertaining interview subject and he carried a dwarf around with him. This… This Mets pitcher isn’t him.

Nate McLouth – Eric Karabell told you he would be the fantasy MVP. Seriously. I think ESPN even charges for this shizz. (I get it for free.) Right now, I picture Hater Bell rocking a Malcolm X hat and listening to Mobb Deep as he prepares to put Karabell on blast. Karabell, take these words and think ‘em through or the next rhyme I write might be about you…

What a turd baby of fantasy baseball advice Karabell laid the other day when he revealed his new rankings. Wasn’t it just a few weeks ago that he ranked Webb number one overall? In his recap of his rankings, he hits upon Edinson Volquez, someone he absolutely believed in a few weeks ago. Naturally, after seeing Volquez pitch superbly for the last few weeks, Karabell is moving Volquez up his rankings, right? Nope, just as Volquez starts to look like he’s the real deal, Karabell bumps him down the list.

After a few weeks, he says Jay Bruce is going to be this year’s Braun. Yes, I realize Jay Bruce is the only known offspring of Superman and Wonder Woman, but Braun’s numbers last year were a once in a lifetime deal. To say a hitter, who majored in striking out in the minors, is going to match Braun is dangerous hyperbole.

Later, when Karabell says he’s totally on board with Josh Hamilton, it scares the beejezus out of me, because I have Hamilton on a few teams where Josh has carried the offense and I need him to keep producing. Why would that giant melonhead jinx Hamilton? Ugh. Don’t worry, we shouldn’t pay too much credence to any of this because he listed Nate McLouth as a possible sell-high guy. That’s right, a week after he said McLouth would win his fictitious Fantasy MVP. Hey, Karabell, go get your shinebox!

2008 Fantasy Baseball is similar to every of year of fantasy baseball in its dissimilarity of the similar. Hey, I sound like Dr. Suess after three Coladas. (BTW, I’m not implying Dr. Seuss was a drunk. He seemed like a peyote man to me.) To paraphrase Sinatra, “Fantasy baseball surprises… Yeah, we’ve had a few.” Since it’s almost halfway through the 2008 season, here’s a look at the top twenty fantasy baseball surprises according to me. Who am I? The CEP (Chief Executive ‘Pert) for the number one fantasy baseball blog. That’s who. (Or whom. I can’t ever figure out the difference. I never said we were the number one Who/Whom blog. But if we were, Who would write for it. Or Whom. Or would they have one blog author that was Who and the dissenting opinion would be Whom?) Anyway, here’s 2008’s biggest fantasy baseball surprises:

20. Justin Duchscherer – Why isn’t Scot Shields starting for the Angels? Can’t Broxton go six? Damaso Marte has to be better than all of the Pirates starters, right?

19. Ryan Dempster – At least Dook-sheer was good as a reliever. Seriously, my head is spinning from Dempster’s season thus far. My head isn’t meant to spin!

18. Xavier Nady – Two days after the season started, I said pick him up cause you never know how long guys will stay hot. You are only lying to yourself if you listened to me. I didn’t even listen to me.

17. Cristian Guzman – What gets him on this list? Being less awful than is expected. Tallest midget on the list. (I didn’t use the term “little person” because “little person” groups midgets and dwarfs together. This seems to be selling both groups short. Pun obviously intended. Don’t make me point out the obvious!)

16. Nate McLouth – ADP 194. Yeah, that’s McValue.

15. Jason Bay – Maybe this is only a surprise to me, but I thought he was toast. (Here’s someone who never stopped believing.)

14. Jorge Cantu - More valuable than Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Justin Morneau, Aramis Ramirez, Garret Atkins, Carlos Guillen and the guy he replaced, Miguel Cabrera. Seriously, you could’ve drafted Cantu in the first round and it would’ve worked out for you. Now you figure out this game of fantasy baseball.

13. Jacoby Ellsbury – 34 steals; 36 steals for all Red Sox not named Jacoby.

12. Victor Martinez – Kelly Shoppach would’ve gave you more value. (For those unfamiliar with that name, it is not the name of Zach’s girlfriend in Saved By The Bell, but I don’t fault you for thinking so.)

11. Ervin Santana – Johan, Carlos and Tito move over; there’s a new Santana in town.

10. Miguel Cabrera – Joe Crede outperforming Miggy. Maybe Miggy should’ve stayed fat.

9. Rafael Furcal – He’s pulling a Kotchman and that’s just wrong.

8. Kerry Wood – Still healthy as he vies for Comeback Player of the Year honors. (BTW, recent winners of Comeback Player of the Year are Carlos Pena, Dmitri Young, Nomar, Thome, Konerko and Javy Lopez, so if Kerry makes it to October healthy, I still won’t be excited about him in ‘09.)

7. Troy Tulowitzki – When the injury came, half of me (the Lily Tomlin half) was actually happy I could pull him from my lineup.

6. J.J. Putz – Has made Mariners fan miss Miguel Batista, the closer.

5. Milton Bradley – In the beginning of the year, Milton Bradley would have punched you in your stupid face if you told him he was going to be in contention for a Triple Crown. Why? Because.

4. Carlos Quentin – CQ has performed much better than the crappy Coppola movie of the same name. (Speaking of which, at what point do The Godfather/Apocalypse Now favors end? The Coppola surname has wasted at least 300 hours of my life. And I’m subtracting the two hours for the wine tasting at his vineyard. My buzz was the least he could’ve done.)

3. Cliff Lee – The Mets hiring Zsa Zsa Gabor to replace Willie Randolph would be less surprising than his first 13 games started.

2. Edinson Volquez – I begged with you all to draft him before the year began. (BTW, in the same piece I point out how Karabell was wrong for being down on him. Seriously, he is ESPN’s top fantasy analyst — wow.) Of course, I didn’t even think Volquez would be sitting on the major league lead in strikeouts and ERA.

1. Josh Hamilton – Now the crack of the bat is the only crack Josh needs.

Mike Jacobs hit two home runs yesterday. Baseball Tonight’s Chris Singleton said Jacobs could hit “a lot” of home runs if he stayed healthy. You know what? Singleton has “a lot” of insight. Funny thing happened on the way to June, Mike Jacobs has thirteen home runs. More than Fielder, Tex, Morneau, Pena and Miguel Cabrera. Now I’m not saying Jacobs will be more valuable than these guys, but Jacobs is way more affordable in a trade. He’s a lot like Carlos Pena in ‘07. Both showed power, but lacked consistency and health. Poor average — check. Clouds of doubt about what they’ll be worth at the end of the year — check, check. Both playing in front of near capacity crowds (for a WNBA game) — check. Pena’s last year owners can also attest that if you own him, you’re better off holding onto him, cause you’ll never get value for him. But if you don’t own him, he’ll cost a lot less than the big boys. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Homer Bailey – About to be called up. Remember when he was their most hyped prospect? Since then, Bruce and Votto have had great starts, they acquire Volquez, and Cueto has a spot in the rotation. Don’t expect much from Bailey. He doesn’t really deserve the call-up as he hasn’t corrected his biggest flaw – wildness. He walked 29 in 66 IP at Triple-A. For Bailey’s sake, we hope the expectations are set closer to Fogg than Volquez.

Mark Prior – Shoulder surgery for Prior causing him to miss the rest of the season. In other news, taco diarrhea burns.

Tim Hudson – I was watching the game when he left with his leg injury. It didn’t look that bad, but then again I get these rashes on my leg and I’ve diagnosed myself as having The African Gong-Gong Disease and prescribed myself a wet towelie and two Little Orphan Orange Otter Pops, so I may not be the best person to ask. Leg problems will probably shelve him for a week. Best case scenario, he misses two starts and returns fine. Worst case, he returns too soon and really messes things up by favoring his injured leg. This is some Trapper John, M.D. suspense!

Brain Bannister – One run in 7+ IP. He looks like a good guy to not pick up in mixed leagues.

Troy Glaus – Hit a HR yesterday. LaRussa says Glaus is going to start hitting more home runs now that the weather is heating up. What you need to ask yourself, is this sober LaRussa talking or drunk LaRussa? I think it’s sober LaRussa.

Ian Snell – If you have him still in your lineup, I’m assuming there was a death in the family and you haven’t check your team in a while. Or you’re just dopey. Either way, my condolences.

Nate McLouth – Ended May with a .279 average. That’s a better representation than April’s .330. Maybe Karabell’s intern misread his refrigerator magnets.

Chase Utley – 20th HR/6th steal. I picked him for NL MVP, so I obviously believe. He’s also one of the few guys that I don’t have on any team, but still can’t root against. Take that schadenfreude (Word of the Day)!

Shawn Hill – Gave up an ill-timed home run to… Who am I kidding? No one cares what Shawn Hill did yesterday.

Chad Tracy – Batting fourth, hitting his second home run three days. CoJack will be out at least a week with a quad strain.

JR Towles – Batting .145 with five hits in all of May.

Bartolo Colon – Now 3-0. I still wouldn’t go near him with a three foot churro. (Only partly because waving a three foot churro near Bartolo would be similar to going to a grizzly bear observatory wearing nothing but bikini briefs made of Marshmallow Fluff…. Talk about a Fluffernutter — oofa!)

Alexei Ramirez/Alexi Casilla – Both can provide some value if you’re weak at MI. Also, if one of them books two dates on the same night, they could pull the old switcheroo and send the other guy out on one of the dates, which is a lot easier than bringing both dates to the same place and then running back and forth switching outfits ala Alex P. Keaton.

Adrian Gonzalez – I’m not really surprised he’s still hitting bombs, but I’d like to see him hit them in July and August.

Carlos Beltran – HRs in 2 straight games to boost his season total to 7. If you invested a top pick in him, you’ve got to be hoping this is the start of one of his streaks.

Johnny Cueto – I said I wouldn’t write about him again until he proved himself. Well, 5 IP of no-hit ball pulled me back in, but he’s still giving up fly balls (10) and not making enough people miss (3). Love the upside, but don’t get too excited. Worth holding onto, but don’t be afraid to bench him if the matchup is bad.

JJ Putz – Another horrendous night. 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning. Who does he think he is – Carlos Silva?

Ryan Church – Hit a home run after returning from his concussion. Talking about the concussion, Church had this to say, “I really know how Snuka felt after that Piper’s Pit.”

Looks like someone found time to transcribe Karabell’s refrigerator magnets into a blog post. ESPN’s top fantasy analyst, Eric Karabell, went through his early season favorites to be fantasy baseball’s Most Valuable Players and Cy Young. Now obviously they don’t give awards for this shizz, but Karabell’s playing in his sandbox, so grab a teat and follow along. (He didn’t mention real baseball where his AL MVP preseason choice was David Ortiz. Yes, he’s bonkers.) You have to be an ESPN Hindsighter™ to understand the extent of his nitwititude so I’ll quote the relevant passages here. For Fantasy MVP, he put Hanley Ramirez behind Nate McLouth. Zoinks! I’m Karabell and I’m chewing on a crayon! Now I’ve long expressed caution about Hanley, even going as far as ranking him 5th overall, but Nate McLouth does not have a chance in Yangzou, China in placing in front of Hanley in fantasy worth at the end of the year. Karabell said this about McClouth:

McLouth isn’t running very much, but I think he will, and he’s looking like a 25-homer guy, at least. Like Florida’s Ramirez, he’s no longer leading off, he’s hitting third. This is legit.

Then he puts Berkman at number one. I won’t argue necessarily with that (I could; I just won’t), but listen to this turd nugget:

When Berkman slows down a bit, literally and figuratively, I think McLouth will pass him on this list…

Wow. I can’t imagine he’s not throwing darts at a board. Literally and figuratively. A) McClouth’s hitting third on the Pirates and in that lineup spot he has zero home runs. B) McClouth was a career .248 hitter coming into 2008. C) He isn’t running much, but he will is probably true, but to rank him number two overall on a promise of more steals is asinine. D) I’m moving on before I shove my head into a blender.

Then Karabell lists his fantasy Cy Young candidates. Edinson Volquez comes in 2nd. Now I have Volquez on a lot of teams, so I don’t want to jinx him too bad and this was covered the other day, I’ll just say Volquez is pitching a wee bit over his head right now. The real turd nugget Karabell pinched off was by drinking the Cliff Lee Kool-Aid, who he placed number one:

I think he threatens for 20 wins and keeps his season ERA around 2.50. To me, that doesn’t make him a prime sell-high.

Lee will probably be over 2.50 by June 15th. Granted, Karabell wrote that three days before Lee’s outing where he gave up six runs in five innings. So does that excuse his stupidity? No, it illustrates it. Not to mention, Lee and Volquez placed in front of Webb, who Karabell just listed as the number one overall fantasy baseball player. Not just pitcher. I’m going to now paper cut my eyelids then submerge my face into a shark tank.