This post is a sequel to this post on maximizing ABs.
In recent posts, I used the results of our 2013 Razzball Commenter Leagues (based on 64 12-team mixed leagues with daily roster changes and unlimited pickups) to show:
- The end of season value of a team’s pitchers explains about 59% of a team’s final season Pitching Standings Points
- The PROJECTED value of a team’s pitchers before the draft explains on average only 3% of a team’s final season Pitching Standings Points (with a range in 2013 from -6% to 15%)
- Thus, even with the best performing rankings, 44% of a team’s pitching success is driven by deviations from what was projected and what actually happened (drafter prescience may be part of this but it is likely driven by good/bad luck in pitcher performance and health)
So this leaves 41% of Pitching Standings Points that could be attributed to a manager’s in-season moves.Please, blog, may I have some more?