Earlier this week, I played guarantee fairy by marking guys likely to rebound or drop-off based on their BABIP differentials (actual vs. expected). Justin Morneau was a red flag because his expected BABIP is 34+ points lower than his actual BABIP, however this is the case for other Rockies, Brandon Barnes and Troy Tulowitzki even more-so. Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado are just behind Morneau as well. What I’m saying is that it’s a generalizable (Colorado) effect, and isn’t too much of a concern in Morneau’s case. The lineup stack probably exacerbates the effect as well.

On the other hand, while Prince Fielder is likely to rebound based on expected BABIP, the ground ball increase and hitting into the defensive shift is really hurting him, meaning I think his issues will somewhat sustain all year.

For this post (using this same matrix), let’s look at some MLB catchers and corner infielders to replace Matt Wieters and Brandon Belt long-term, and who should rebound at least from an expected BABIP perspective (<10% ownership on ESPN as of 5/12). Here is how I have them ranked:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

I mustache you a question, when you drafted, were you Axfording a hard time from your closer? Then you got it. John Axford finally was removed from the closer role. Francona said, “I’ve seen crap before, but Assford demonstrated a whole new level of excrement.” Or something to that effect. I’m not one for details. Axford was replaced by the committee of author Bryan Shaw, Nick at Nite star Cody Allen and The RZE. That’s also the order I’d pick them up. There’s prolly no reason to mess with The RZE, especially after he was treated like Jodie Foster in The Accused yesterday. Speaking of The RZE, Method Man and Raekwon forgot one way to torture their opponents when they talk about rusty screwdrivers and whatnot. “I’ll hack your fantasy team and pick up John Axford and leave him in your active lineup and let him keep feeding you terrible stats, and feeding you, and feeding you and feeding you.” Now, that’s gangster. There’s a good chance Axford never sees another save this year. Collective wisdom says Cody Allen will be the closer, but collective wisdom also said Obama was going to make a difference. Yesterday, the Indians set up the game so Shaw would be the closer, whereas Allen’s one save came when Axford was garbage and Shaw had already been used. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Fredo is a disgrace. That’s Fredo Gonzalez. He’s running around yapping his mouth about my fantasy team’s business, saying Alex Wood can go to the bullpen and Gavin Floyd can stay in the rotation. Why don’t you defend Moe Green while you’re at it, Fredo? I’m sorry, I’m about to have an aneurysm. Fredo said he doesn’t want to go to a six-man rotation, saying, “(Floyd) is one guy that would not go to the bullpen… We all know how the bullpen thing is. You get up. You get down. You go in. You got to warm up in 15 (pitches), and I don’t want to do that to (Floyd).” No, instead you’ll do it to one of your best, young arms. Jonny Venters just asked an elderly man behind him in line at the bank to sign his check for him because he can’t lift his arm! I know it was you, Fredo. You broke my heart. You broke my heart! Well, I haven’t heard anything official yet, but it sounds like Wood is headed to the bullpen so Floyd can start. Super. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Matt Wieters is headed to see Dr. Freeze about his elbow and likely to the DL. Stop throwing curveballs to 2nd base! Dr. Freeze has never seen an elbow he can’t sideline for six months. Can’t we have anything nice this year? The only player that is healthy in the entire league is Nick Punto. Now starting at 1st base for the Orioles…Nick Punto! Now starting at catcher for the Reds…Nick Punto! Now starting in right field for the Angels…Nick Punto! It’s Nick Punto’s world and we’re just trying to play fantasy baseball! The only ones doing well this year are Dr. James Andrews and Nick Punto! “Wanna go to Friendly’s?” “Sure, your treat!” And then Dr. James Andrews and Nick Punto laughed evilly. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

I’m going to take a different approach to this week’s Deep Impact post and talk about my up-to-this-point woulda-coulda-shoulda team, and point out the surprises with whom I think will have a sustainable, deep into-the-season impact. I’m omitting the non-surprises i.e. Adam Wainwright, Felix Hernandez, and Jose Fernandez who are naturally in the top-20 so long as they stay healthy.

Here are thine options (within the top-100) to date with their ESPN Player Rater rankings in parenthesis as of Friday, 4/25:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Funny that Mark Trumbo has a stress fracture in his foot, because I now have a stress fracture in my stress-bearing frontal lobe. “You wanna remember your anniversary with the Cougar or Mark Trumbo’s recovery timetable?” Shut up, frontal lobe, I hate you! I wish you were dead! *wavy lines* Hey, I have no frontal lobe anymore. Cool, I really like this episode of The Big Bang Theory. They are a gang of funny people! I wish Slystevesr Stallone would do more movies. He’s so awesome. Slvester? Why is there a red line under that? Damn, I can’t spell my favorite movie star’s name without my frontal lobe! *wavy lines* Okay, I’m glad I have a frontal lobe, but not glad I have Mark Trumbo on multiple deep league teams. Wah, wah, wah, that’s the sound of my sad Trumbone. This could mean more playing time for Tony Campana — SAGNOF! — or steady playing time for Cody Ross — um, AGNOF!, I guess. Last time Trumbo had a stress fracture — how many stress fractures does this guy have? — he was laid up for close to six months. Yay. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

The H is O! Oh, no, Jose Fernandez has me so jazzed, I need to bust some rhymes. I came in the door, I said it before. I never let a top starter magnetize me no more, but watching Fernandez yesterday is biting me, fighting me, inviting me to want a number one starter just this one time. I can’t hold it back, I’m looking at his pitching line — 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 14Ks. Taking off my coat, and that’s me quoting Rakim’s quote, his pitches were kicking it until his last hitter, Ryan Doumit. My mind remains refined, all kinds of ideas. Self-esteem makes it seem like his pitching took years to build, but his age is just twenty-one. Prepared, never scared, he’s just a blessed one. And you know that I’ve never seen that terrible movie with Jamie Foxx, think it was called The Soloist, so Jose F. make ‘em clap to this. I said it the other day, but in case you weren’t reading, Fernandez is going to be the best pitcher going into next year. Thought he was a donut, you tried to glaze him. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

“I’m a prince, boy. Have you ever been with a prince? …Take off your clothes.”

No, this isn’t Tehol quoting Tehol, regurgitating the way I speak to my Thai boy handlers when I’m doing  thong shoots in Phuket. Very similar verbiage, but no, this fascinating quote comes from none other than the legendary, Prince Oberyn Martell of Dorne, a man I’m positive you will come to love throughout season four of HBO’s Game of Thrones. Like a supreme vortex, “GOT” has sucked in the entire nation, and it’s well past time it was brought forth into the wondrous world of fantasy baseball. [Ed. Note– Oh, you mean like here, and here, and, ahem, here? FIRST! Bwahahahah.] Some people say fantasy baseball is the equivalent of D&D for jocks. Well, I for one, want a piece of both worlds! The season four premier was a masterful work of art, as I’m fully reminded as to why I was so entranced by the novels. Let’s have some fun and intertwine some of the premium quotes from the season premier with the annual Delight/Disgrace column. Will you allow me the pleasure of doing this? No? Too late, for I am already balls deep. and I’m on some Geno Auriemma/Charlie Sheen winning type-ish thing. So let us begin. [Warning, Game of Thrones Spoilers ahead!]

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Ryan Braun hit his first two home runs off Kyle Kendrick — you know, that Kendrick sure sticks out for a sore thumb — and then Braun emancipated a third ball off Lincoln. Three homers a mere two days after saying he was not able to swing normally is quite the 180. It’s like when Mickey Rourke is one of the best actors — in movies like Diner and Angel Heart — only to have a string of flops, terrible plastic surgery and then he reemerges in The Wrestler. Or Travolta’s career is in the toilet after Saturday Night Fever, dealing with whispers about his bedroom predilections and then he does Pulp Fiction. Doing The McConaughey while McConaughey was still ruining his career. A few years later, Mickey Rourke has another string of flops and his face still scares small children; Travolta does Battlefield Earth and now whispers about his religion have joined the other whispers. (Be forewarned, McConaughey.) So, will Braun now reemerge as the top hitter in the game and hold his Pulp Fiction/Wrestler renaissance or will his thumb continue to haunt him while he commits to Wild Hogs II: Where The Wild Hogs Are? All I know is he was complaining about his thumb a full nine months after he first hurt it, so it doesn’t seem likely to disappear that fast. His value may be even higher now, but I’d still be concerned. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Here’s me yesterday looking to pick up the new Yankee closer…. *types Kelly into waivers box, presses Enter* Inner monologue, “Joe Kelly?! No, I don’t want him! Casey Kelly?! Blech! C’mon, this is a 15 team mixed league, I’m not in an NL-Only keeper! Someone beat me to the waiver wire? Really? For the first time in three years, I’m watching a Yankees game because nothing else is on and serendipitously David Robertson is announced with a groin strain, so there’s no way anyone beat me to the waiver wire… I’m here first, I have to be! So where’s Kelly?! Fine, I’ll click the button that shows the players that are owned too. Wait, he’s not even listed there. What in the holy name of Christ Colabello–” And that was around the time I realized his name was spelled Kelley, not Kelly and while I was misspelling it someone else swooped in and grabbed him. This has been the latest installment of Grey Albright: Are You Sure You Want To Listen To This Man? So, Robertson is out for a few weeks with a groin strain — easy on the noodes, doode! — and Shawn Kelley is your new closer in New York, and, even though yesterday was Kelley’s first career save, it doesn’t mean he can’t be successful for the next three weeks. Or unsuccessful, but I’d pick him up either way in any league. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?