Fantasy Baseball Advice

As legend goes, on May 30th, 1982, Orioles utility infielder, Lenn Sakata was so inspired by the hit film of the day, Conan the Barbarian, that he dressed in animal skin Jockey underwear “borrowed” from Jim Palmer and carried a cardboard sword into the locker room.  Now whether Cal Ripken (then Cal Ripken Jr.) knew the power in that cardboard sword or if he was just patronizing Sakata no one knows, but Ripken knelt on the floor in front of Sakata and asked him to touch his shoulder with the cardboard sword.  With a grand gesture, that was probably unnecessary, Sakata obliged.  As we all know, May 30th, 1982 began The Streak.  On the record, Ripken thanked his family and teammates for their support for making The Streak possible.  Off the record, of course, Ripken knew it was Lenn Sakata that forever changed history.  This year, Lenn Sakata returned to the Orioles locker room, dressed in only faux leather boots and a loincloth.  Most of the Orioles thought Sakata was a homeless person that snuck past security… Some thought he was the Asian guy from The Hangover… But Matt Wieters knew different.  Before security could escort Sakata out, Wieters knelt in front of him and asked Lenn to touch him with the cardboard sword.  The same cardboard sword that once touched Ripken’s shoulder.  (It also touched a young Jeffrey Hammonds’s shoulder.  Nevertheless…)  For the superstitious, this is enough for Matt Wieters to be a 2010 fantasy baseball keeper, but for the non-believers, let’s look at some other reasons.

In nearly 700 plate appearances in the minor leagues, Wieters had a line of .343/.438/.576.  At 6 feet 5 inches, he had some saying he was “Mauer with power.”  Turns out Mauer had power, which worked out for those who love to rhyme, and Wieters had rookie hiccups.  It wasn’t until the tail end of the year when Wieters started to show some of his promise, hitting .362/.425/.511 in September.  In 2010, Wieters could get to a line of 70/17/85/.300.  If those numbers look familiar, you might be Pablo Sandoval.  Check your midsection for confirmation.  That was near my 2009 projections for Sandoval; Wieters isn’t far off.  Those numbers are also a baseline.  There’s definite upside.  So there may just be magic in that cardboard sword of Lenn Sakata.  Heaven knows there’s magic in his loincloth.

Clayton Kershaw has more Ks than innings.  Call me a K whore all you want, but that alone is enough for me to get excited about Kershaw in 2010.  Do I need to say more?  Probably not, but I will.  He’ll be 22 in March of 2010.  A 21-year-old who threw a season of a sub-3 ERA season in 170 innings.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious, right?  Yeah, they are.  For a long time I’ve been wavering between Kershaw and Max Scherzer.  Well, I’m ready to choose one now.  They’re both young.  (Though Kershaw’s almost four years younger.)  They both strike out hitters more than a batter per inning.  (Though Kershaw’s a bit better this year.)  One sounds like a Brit, one sounds like a Nazi.  In the morning, they both go to the local mall and walk with the seniors.  Wait, I’m misreading my notes.  They walk a lot of batters, not bitties.  Kershaw’s walk rate was actually worse than Scherzer.  So why am I choosing Kershaw?  The Dodgers limited his innings towards the end of the year and the Diamondbacks abused poor Scherzer.  In 2008, Scherzer threw 109 innings between the majors and minors.  In 2009, he threw 164.  That’s a pretty significant jump.  Now I’m not saying I’d keep Kershaw over a known hitter commodity, but I would consider keeping him for the 2010 fantasy baseball season.  Definitely over Scherzer.  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers for 2010:

Psyche!  Before we get into that, I wanted to point out a scheduling adjustment.  Fridays used to be our weekly Buy/Sell.  Well, that’s gone for the offseason and keepers will now be on Friday.  As they say in Jamaica — carry on (your head)!

Matt Wieters – .362/.425/.511 in September.  Just wanted to get the hype going early.  Carry on.

Rajai Davis – Sure, steals don’t have a face.  But, if they did, they’d look a lot like Rajai Davis.  Chances are if you own him, you have him on the very cheap.  A cheap guy that could get you 50 steals in 2010?  Where do I sign up?  (I can’t wait until someone finds us who Googles:  Where do I sign up? + cheap Nazi bitties)

Yesterday, Rafael Furcal went 2-for-4 with a steal.  I thought Furcal was overvalued in the preseason because I thought he was more fragile than Alanis after a breakup.  Well, he’s actually played the whole season, albeit terribly.  He’s been on base over 200 times.  He has 10 steals with 6 times caught.  Who gave him Kirk Gibson’s fist-pumping legs for five months?  But, and here’s the head turner, he has 4 steals in the last seven games.  Not sure what happened to Furcal the first 95% of the season, 10 steals used to be a good month for him.  Maybe he’s a Latin 31.  But never us mind, he’s hot right now.  If he was dropped anywhere, he’s currently hitting over .500 in the last week with 4 steals.  Go fur it!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Bobby Jenks – I might’ve misspoke when I said Linebrink would be the closer.  Grey wrong?  Get outta here this instant! Yeah, I know, random italicized voice, the guy who traded for Jose Reyes in one league in May being wrong is crazy.  I originally said Linebrink because of how Ozzie had used him recently.  But Linebrink has been awful.  No disputing that.  Then again, I don’t think Matt Thornton’s going to suddenly become Franklin Morales of last week.  Either way, I don’t think this is a great situation for saves.  Okay, correction done.

Jermaine Dye – 2 HRs yesterday as he came down with a case of Furcalitis, a disease that boosts one’s stats when games no longer matter.

Michael Aubrey – HR yesterday.  I also really love him on Real Estate Intervention.

Matt Wieters – Hit another homer yesterday.  Member all that (lack of) work he did over the summer to make him underrated next year?  Yeah, he’s been outta his mind recently.  I knew it would happen eventually, I was kinda hoping eventually was next April.

Travis Snider – HR yesterday.  4 for his last 7, but it was against Orioles pitching and, as I tell my girlfriend, beware the small sample size.

Francisco Liriano – Should start against the Royals on Sunday.  He’ll get to face Greinke.  Sometimes it just ain’t your year.

Carlos Guillen – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs with 2 HRs yesterday.  With the way he’s played since returning from injury, he should sit out two months every year.  Oh, wait, he does.

Chad Billingsley – 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 Ks vs. the Nats.  I think they call this a tune-up for the playoffs.  Considering how broken down he’s been lately, they would be right.

Ryan Zimmerman – Hit his 31st homer yesterday and so did Miguel Cabrera.  I mention that for symmetry and because, other than the average, Zimmerman’s been just as valuable.

Drew Stubbs – 2-for-6, 2 steals.  What, no homers?

Homer Bailey – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 0 Ks.  Blech, but he got the win.  I’m gonna have to get over not liking him because I think I’ll probably own him in some leagues next year.

Jonathan Sanchez – 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks.  I pegged him as a borderline starter to take a gamble on for yesterday, along with Homer Bailey.

Randy Choate – Got the save yesterday.  So that’s who the closer is!  Choate came in to get two lefties and a righty (which turned into two righties and a lefty – Wakamatsu is a magician!)

Wade Davis – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  He gets Baltimore and supposedly the last start of the year vs. the Yankees, which will be the B lineup.  And there is no A lineup on the Orioles.

Gaby Sanchez – HR yesterday.  (S)He’s a decent name to look at in deep NL-Only keepers.  Keepers only though, (s)he’s not playing much at all right now.

Tim Hudson – 6 IP, 2 ER, 11 baserunners as he tied his owners to the WHIPping post.  As someone who watched 75% of this game, Hudson looked terrible.  Got very lucky, even with Kelly Johnson mucking up a double play ball.

Chris Narveson – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 Ks.  Anyone who’s read this blog for even a short period of time knows I got excited when I saw 10 Ks in under 6 innings.  Unfortunately, he gets the Rockies in Coors next time out so there’s nothing to see here.

Bud Norris – 6 IP, 0 ER.  Nice, but in the same boat as Narveson with a tough next matchup (@Philly).

Julio Borbon – Stole his 17th base yesterday in only 119 ABs.  I have a feeling someone’s value is going to be inflated next year.

Brad Lidge – 2/3 IP, 2 ER and his 11th blown save.  Imagine if Scioscia managed the Phillies.  Lidge would be in the Phanatic costume doing belly flops during rain delays.

Rich Harden – Now the Cubs are saying he may get shut down.  Yeah, I said that last week.  Read the blog, doode!

Milton Bradley – Has a new game, Pin The Blame On The Cubbies.

Freddy Sanchez limped off the field with a knee injury.  Presumably, the same knee he’s been nursing since his days with Pittsburgh.  Without his services, the Giants probably would have still finished in third, but a game or two further out, so no regrets losing Alderson.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Barry Zito – 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 9 baserunners.  Baked Zito.

Ted Lilly – Scratched from his next start because of shoulder soreness.  Stop scratching him, and start fixing him!  You hold your breath waiting for him to return this year and you’re going to turn (Cubbie) blue.

Jose Reyes – Took batting practice yesterday.  Says he still wants to return.  Probably wants to check out the new Mets stadium.

Chase Headley – 5-for-6, HR yesterday.  Without looking it up, I’m gonna say this was his best game ever.  This might be his best week.  Even if he doesn’t play another game.  If you grabbed him for the short schedule day yesterday, you’re a genius.  They should bronze your brain.  I don’t know who they is, but you probably do, Brain Who Should Be Bronzed-ee.

Wade LeBlanc – 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  This was, “The One Where He Pitches vs. the Pirates.”

Garrett Jones – Hit his 20th homer last night in his 269th AB.  He only has 38 Runs and 40 RBIs.  Yay, Pirates!

Heath Bell – Blew the save.  Unfortunately, Luke Gregerson wasn’t much better.

Matt Wieters – Didn’t do much yesterday, but he’s now batting third and he’s hitting around .450 in the last week.

Derek Lowe – 5 IP, 3 ER.  Blister problem might’ve caused his early exit, or maybe with the way he pitched vs. the Mets this year he just wanted out while the gettin’ was good.

Martin Prado – 3-for-4 and batting around .450 for the last week as Kelly Johnson was seen picking dirt out of his cleats.

Mike Cameron – 2 HRs yesterday to get to 21.  Someone, somewhere in March of next year is going to look at his final numbers and think, “Hey, maybe I should take Mike Cameron with my last outfield spot.”  You, hopefully, will mock them.

Derrek Lee – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs and a HR yesterday.  Beggars shouldn’t, uh, ya know, choose, but if only Lee would’ve also stole ten bases… Or five… Or one.   With his leg span, it’s like a five foot lead and seven steps away from the next base.

Tom Gorzelanny – 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 9 Ks.  He gets the Ain’ts next, but I’d stay away if your ratios are at all in danger or if you have a pacemaker.

Mark DeRosa – 2 HRs yesterday.  After only hitting one homer in August, these were his first homers in September.  Hits homers in bunches (and pairs, obviously).  Might have another two or three homers left in his bat for the remainder of the year.

Daniel Hudson – 5 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  You know that guy you see when you search for Tim Hudson on the waiver wire?  Here he is!  Great news, he has more than a K/IP in the minors.  Bad news, his control is iffy at times.  Just okay news, he’s worth a pick up in AL-Only or very deep keeper leagues because he should have the opportunity to impress next year.

Brian Fuentes – Got the save yesterday.  Scioscia might just be messing with you with the Jepsen thing, but Fuentes did kinda face lefties (Swisher, who’s weaker vs. lefties, Posada, who he walked, and Cano, who is a lefty).

Kevin Millwood – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Still not really a guy I’d take a chance on in the final two weeks.

Nick Blackburn – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 Ks.  He gets the peasant Royals next time out, but he hasn’t been great against them this year.

Wandy Rodriguez – 5 IP, 6 ER.  It was almost like Fausto Carmona was ghost riding the Wandwagon last night.  Still, he has a sub-3 ERA on the year.  You don’t get mad at the Wandwagon.  He took you places and showed you things you never thought you’d see this year.

Daisuke Matsuzaka returned from his bout of Terriblitis to pitch effectively vs. the Angels. 6 IP, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks. He almost looked as good as when he won the MVP of the World Baseball Classic.   Ah, yes, Selig, it’s a brilliant idea.  We’re a global game now.  Next time I’m in Italy, my paisans and I will talk all about baseball over our Chianti.  I’m not a huge fan of Dice-K (the walks), but he was solid in his rehab stint and he does get the Orioles next.  That’s not a terrible match up.  I wouldn’t own him, but we can still get along if you do.  One love!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jake Peavy – The on again, on again, then off again, then briefly on, then briefly off, then on again comeback is on again for Saturday vs. the Royals.

Victor Martinez – Here’s an SAT question for you.  Martinez left the club for “personal reasons.”  Grey knows what it means when his girlfriend takes off a day from work for “personal reasons.” So this means that Martinez left the club because of what?

Michael Young – He kept saying he would return on Friday.  Then he returned yesterday.  Then he was lifted for a pinch hitter after one at-bat.  See what happens to liars.  He now says he really will be back this Friday.  Mmm-hmm.

Andy Pettitte – Will miss a start with a sore shoulder.  I wouldn’t be surprised if most of the Yankee team has a “sore shoulder” on and off for the next few weeks as they gear up for the playoffs.

Carlos Marmol – Piniella calls Marmol the closer for 2010.  With the amount of walks Marmol gives up, I don’t think Piniella should cancel the Milk of Magnesia bulk order just yet.

Tommy Hanson – 7 IP, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks and his 10th Win.  He has a 2.65 ERA on the year with nearly a K/IP.  He far exceeded my expectations for him or, really, any rookie pitcher.

Adam LaRoche – 4-for-4, 2 HRs yesterday.  Maybe if LaRoche starts playing in Venezuela in the winter, then by April he’ll think it’s the All-Star Break.

Matt Wieters – 3-for-4, 5 RBIs and a homer yesterday.  For everyone’s sake, hope he doesn’t have a great final three weeks, so people partially forget about him next year.

Geovany Soto – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs and a homer.  Speaking of catchers who drove you mad this year, Soto’s been hot in September, hitting over .350.

Yovani Gallardo - 5 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 12 baserunners.  YoGa, why do you stress me?  I would’ve totally accepted him getting scratched before this game rather than this start.

Robinson Tejada – 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  He was highlighted in yesterday’s post about borderline starters.  You scroll down.  Also, it’s Ta-HEY-duh not Tay-HA-duh, but both are from Baní, Dominican Republic.  You think in Baní there’s a lot of people saying, “Is it hey or ha?”

Miguel Olivo – Hit his 20th homer yesterday.  He gets so incredibly hot when he’s actually hitting the ball and not striking out.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Olivo hits 5 more homers in the next two weeks.

Magglio Ordonez – Went 0-for-3 with a strikeout, but the 3 at-bats will mean he’ll make $18 million next year.  Just in case you wanted a reason to run into traffic.

Travis Snider – 2 HRs yesterday.  See about 4 1/2 inches above under Wieters for why we don’t want Snider to get too hot.  Unless, I guess, if you own him.  But that’s just selfish.  Think about us!

Nick Swisher – 6 for his last 13 with a homer as he hits over .300 in September.

Cliff Lee – The Adverb threw a shutout with 9 Ks vs. the Nationals.

David Ortiz – HR yesterday.  I don’t own him, so, honestly, I don’t pay too much attention to how poor Ortiz is hitting on a day-to-day basis.  But, with that said, he’s batting .233.  When he bats, the opposing team should move the left side of the infield into the dugout.

Roy Oswalt – 5 IP, 4 ER, 3 Ks vs. the Reds.  Charlie Hough wearing a Wolverine Mechanical Claw from Toys R Us could strike out 3 Reds.

Kaz Matsui – HR yesterday and has 4 steals in the last week.  I’m guessing here, but I betcha he’s going to be in Friday’s Buy/Sell.

Heath Bell – 1 IP, 2 ER and the Bell has tolled every time in his last three appearances, giving up 7 runs.  Meanwhile, Grey notices Luke Gregerson has 15 consecutive scoreless innings dating back a month.

Barry Zito – 7 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks.  He gets the Diamondbacks next.  Not a terrible start, but he’ll be facing Haren.

Chipper Jones – Guess what?  Glass Chipper’s out for a few more days, might be longer.  Punt!

Carlos Beltran – 5-for-20, 1 homer, 2 RBIs, 0 steals and he’s sat out three games since his return.  Cust kayin’.

Francisco Rodriguez – Left the club to be with his wife as she gave birth.  This would’ve been so much easier if he would’ve just knocked up Aaron Hill’s wife.