Fantasy Baseball Advice

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Orioles Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Daniel Moroz of Camden Crazies (don’t fret, NJ and Philly readers – this refers to Camden Yards and not the most dangerous city of 2004, 2005, and 2009 – Camden, NJ)

1) The fantasy baseball expectations of Matt Wieters last year were ridiculous – nothing short of Piazza’s 1993 rookie year (.318/81/35/112) would’ve satisifed them.  A year later, expectations are in check and our CHONE/ZiPS-based projection systems have him with a modest line of:  .286/55 R /14 HR /63 RBI.  Do you think he’ll surpass any of those levels and, if so, by how much?

I think those expectations are pretty spot-on, as I have him projected to hit .287/.351/.455 right now. The RBI and R has a lot to do with where he hits in the batting order, which I’m not sure of.  I do think he has a chance to break out, but am not really looking for that to happen for at least another year. Adjusting to hitting major league pitching is hard – especially when one also has to adjust to catching major league pitching

2) The Orioles have a number of starting pitcher prospects.  Rank the following in order based on your 2010 expectations:  Brad Bergesen, Jason Berken, Brian Matusz, and Chris Tillman.

Matusz, Bergesen, Tillman, Berken. I think Matusz can be an above average starting pitcher already; Bergesen around average; Tillman and Berken more of like 4/5 starters, with the latter maybe seeing some time in the bullpen as well (and the former have the much higher ceiling).

3) Which of the Orioles outfielders will have the best year at the plate: Nick (Sparkakis!) Markakis, Adam Jones, or Nolan Reimold?

Markakis. He’s the only one who I think can hit .300, put up a .380 OBP, and slug close to .500. I don’t think Jones or Reimold will get to any of those marks in 2010 – and especially not all three.

4) Brian Roberts’ SB totals have gone from 50 to 40 to 30 in the past 3 years.  Over/under 30 SBs in 2010?

I’ll take under 30, especially since he already has missed some time this spring with back issues. Roberts is getting into his mid 30s, so while he should still be able to steal quite a few bases just based on smart baserunning, I don’t think his speed will stay top notch for that much longer.

5) Since you follow the Orioles, we assume you live in the Baltimore area and, thus, must have watched ‘The Wire’.  So, which Wire character does Peter Angelos most remind you of?  (personality vs. physical)  If you haven’t seen the Wire, please explain yourself.

I do live in Baltimore, and I have seen The Wire, but only the first season (and a couple episodes of the second). It was a good show – and I can definitely tell why people consider it one of the best TV shows of all time – but it just didn’t grab me that strongly. I’m hoping to come back to it at some point. I guess in light of that, I can’t really answer the question well. I think Angelos has finally allowed the baseball people to be in charge, which is for the best.

Rudy:  Sheeeeeeeettt, I would’ve thought all Baltimoretonians were required to watch The Wire and all Barry Levinson + Jon Waters movies.  The easy answer to “Which ‘The Wire’ character does Peter Angelos most remind you of?” is The Greek from Season 2 as he 1) also owns a big organization, 2) works best when he keeps a low profile and let’s lieutenants take care of the day-to-day and 3) is of Greek descent (Angelos is Greek-American).  Alternatives answers include Mayor Clarence Royce (profited off civil service – Angelos made his money in class-action suits – and ran the city into the ground), Police Commissioner Ervin Burrell (misran the Police Department and put too much faith in bad lieutentants like Deputy Rawls), and drug kingpin Avon Barksdale (gets a little too overexcited when someone disrespects him by encroaching on his territory *cough* Washington Senators *cough*)

Went over the top 20 and top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball.  Now, friends, it’s time for the top 20 catchers for 2010 fantasy baseball.  The top 20 catchers are the glass of warm milk right before you go to sleep.  Hey, I just drafted Jorge Posada!  Snooze.  I love Kurt Suzuki this year!  Yawn.  I don’t draft top catchers in one catcher leagues.  The fifth best catcher and the 15th best catcher are tomato, to-blah-to.  Because I ignore the top catchers doesn’t mean I’m starting the top 20 catcher list at number twenty-one (Barajas?  What’s Spanish for punt?  Punta?); some of you might want to know the top catchers.  You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make them draft Napoli.  In two catcher leagues, catchers are a little more valuable, but I’d still prefer to avoid them.  You can see other top 20 lists for 2010 fantasy baseball under 2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings.  Listed along with these catchers are my 2010 projections for each player and where the tiers begin and end.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 catchers for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1. Joe Mauer – This is the first tier.  This tier ends at V-Mart.  I call this tier, “Well, if you’re going to take a top catcher, here they are.”  Went over Mauer’s projections in my top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball.

2. Brian McCann – Everyone has Victor Martinez in this spot, but I’m not everyone.  If you want to read everyone, I’m sure you can find them.  In 2010, McCann is going to be 26 years old; V-Mart is 31.  In one hundred extra at-bats last year, V-Mart only hit 2 more homers.  Am I predicting Martinez runs over a fire hydrant while Jason Varitek chases him with golf clubs?  No, that’s not what I’m saying.  He’s ranked 3rd for me.  Since I’m not drafting either of these guys outside of 2 catcher leagues, it’s all academic.  I think this is the year McCann can blossom, Joey Lawrence.  2010 Projections:  80/28/105/.295/3

3. Victor Martinez – As mentioned above (you are reading every nook and cranny, right, muffin?), V-Mart’s still as productive as they come.  His move to the Sawx only helped his value.  Though I do think the Sawx hitters are a lot more intimidating in theory than reality.  “Oh, no, Kevin Youkilis.  I’m scared.”  “Watch out, here comes a Latin 34 David Ortiz and he’s wearing a Snuggie cause his old man bones are cold.”  Yeah, I don’t think this is your slightly older brother’s Red Sox who regales you with tales of 2004.  2010 Projections:  85/25/110/.300

4. Matt Wieters – This is a new tier.  This tier ends at Napoli.  This tier is called, “I like these guys and would draft them, but I’m not drafting them before 100th overall.”  If you were to extrapolate Wieters numbers from last year and if extrapolate were the right word, you’d have a catcher who hit about 16 homers.  As my Jewish grandmother used to say, big whoop.  His splits were encouraging and he’s as talented as the hype is making him out to be.  I could see drafting him then trading him early in the season.  I predict his value will be at its peak just before the season begins.  As you’ll see from my projections, he’ll be good, but, in the end, he’s still a catcher.  2010 Projections:  70/18/85/.305

5. Miguel Montero – Montero’s not quite the .294 hitter he was last year and his HR/FB was a bit high, so we shouldn’t expect 20-plus from him.  I’ve seen a lot of fantasy baseball ‘perts put Posada around this spot in their rankings.  What’s Posada, 63 years old?  Bleh.  If Posada hits 22 homers again, I’ll eat my proverbial hat with a side of proverbial crow.  If you’re taking a catcher, why not at least take one with some upside?  2010 Projections:  65/17/80/.280

6. Mike Napoli – I’m a big fan of Napoli.  Owned him in leagues for the last two years.  Now I’m worried the people in the back of the room have finally caught up to what he can provide and he’ll be overrated.  Or worse, he’ll disappoint just to spite the bandwagoners.  He does not play every game.  You must know that when you draft him.  If you own Napoli, you must follow the Ron Popeil school of catchers and set him and forget him.  2010 Projections:  60/19/70/.260/5

7. Geovany Soto – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Iannetta.  I call this tier, “Post-hype fliers.”  Now remember I’m telling you to punt catcher, so when you see Soto at seven that doesn’t mean grab him in the top 100.  When I say I like Soto this year, it doesn’t mean go crazy with yourself.  He’s still just a catcher.  The reason why I like him and Iannetta this year is because at a shallow position you’re doing yourself a disservice if you don’t go for an upside pick.  To read more about Geovany Soto fantasy sleeper stuff.  2010 Projections:  65/18/80/.280

8. Chris Iannetta – This is my totally out of left field pick at catcher.  There’s no reason why he should be ranked this high.  He doesn’t even have a starting job.  And just because I have him this high doesn’t mean you draft him before someone else takes Posada or Suzuki or Russell Martin.  Iannetta will be there later on in the draft.  He hit 16 homers last year in 289 ABs.  He also had to battle a slew of injuries and a bad line drive rate.  Hey, it’s not all peaches and cream with Iannetta.  Still worth the flier.  2010 Projections:  50/17/65/.265

9. Jorge Posada – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Pierzynski.  I call this tier, “I wouldn’t draft these guys with your team.”  Posada’s on a great team and he’s shown few signs of slowing down.  He ended up in this tier because he’s just too overrated.  Last year’s homers were fluky.  Yes, I know the new Yankee Stadium plays like a Taiwanese Little League park.  There’s no way Posada’s good for 400 ABs.  He’s old as dog balls.  I give him 17 homers and I’m in a generous mood.  2010 Projections:  50/17/75/.280

10. Russell Martin – Martin is the opposite of the Post-Hype Sleeper pick.  He is the Still Overrated Because He Plays For The Dodgers pick.  If he played for the Pirates, you wouldn’t even think about drafting him.  He was deriving some value from his speed, but Torre’s abused him worse than the late-90’s Yankees bullpen.  On Bill James’s Speed Score, where 5 is average, Martin’s 2006 was 5.4; 2007 was 5.2; 2008 was 3.9 and 2009 was 3.3.  Soon, he’s going to need Lasorda to pinch run for him.  2010 Projections:  70/10/60/.280/10

11. Bengie Molina – The chunkier one of The Flying Molina Brothers.  Bengie yawnstipates me.  Is he really that different than Napoli?  No, not really, but he’s got as much upside as a dead parrot.  As of right now, he’s a free agent so he may drop further in these rankings depending on where he signs.  2010 Projections:  50/16/65/.270

12. Kurt Suzuki – I look at Suzuki and see a poor man’s Russell Martin.  That’s not a compliment.  2010 Projections:  65/12/65/.270/6

13. Yadier Molina – I see Yadier and I see a poor man’s Kurt Suzuki.  Yes, there’s a pattern emerging and it’s not pretty.  2010 Projections:  40/7/55/.285/5

14. A.J. Pierzynski – Please don’t draft A.J. Pierzynski.  2010 Projections:  55/12/65/.280

15. Ryan Doumit – This is the last tier.  I call this tier, “You’re obviously in a deep league so take a flier on some upside.”  Dear (fill-in deity of choice), I’m writing to you regarding Ryan Doumit.  All I ask of You is Doumit gets 400 ABs.  If you can make that happen, I promise to no longer cancel my girlfriend’s HGTV DVR recordings and pretend like I had no idea what happened.  2010 Projections:  50/16/60/.280/3

16. Buster Posey – I went over Buster Posey in 250-ish words in the Buster Posey 2010 fantasy outlook post.  2010 Projections:  55/14/65/.290/3

17. Tyler Flowers/Alex Avila – They need a starting job.  I’m working without a net here in January, so whether you draft them or not will be a March call.  You may need to even pick them up off waivers at some point in the season.  This won’t be the last time I write about them in the preseason, definitely will need to update them in spring training.  Flowers has great upside long term, but I’d keep expectations in check for 2010.  Or just remember Wieters’s 2009.  Avila has less upside long term, but more potential for 2010.  In the end, he’s really just some power.  Neither will be ownable unless they’re starting and hot.  Flowers’s 2010 Projections:  40/10/50/.275; Avila’s 2010 Projections:  40/12/55/.250

18. Kelly Shoppach - With Shoppach’s trade to the Rays, he gets a small boost.  He’s still a liability on average.  Though last year’s .214 looks like the outlier.  He’s closer to a .250 hitter.  He’s also still a plus on power.  If he can get 400 ABs, he could challenge 20 homers.  2010 Projections for Shoppach:  55/16/65/.245

19. Jesus Flores – You already know the schmohawks like Varitek and Barajas, so I wanted to end this list with some exciting names.   But, um, there’s not that many exciting names to be had.  Thankfully, most of you are in 15 team leagues are smaller with one catcher, so you’ll never have to even get this low.  And that brings us to Jesus Effin’ Flores.  (I have no idea why, but I always want to give him the middle name “Effin’.”)  Anyhoo, J.E.F. had a stress fracture in his shoulder last year which killed him, then arthroscopic surgery on his elbow…  Well, it’s real late in the catchers, what do you want?  These guys are longshots.  And, yes, Ivan Rodriguez is blocking Flores a bit on playing time.  2010 Projections:  55/15/65/.250

20. Ramon Hernandez – Trying to find an exciting 20th catcher to put on this list was torture.  Looked at John Baker — bleh.  Looked at the portmanteau of Jarlor Saltygarden — bleck.  Looked at Nick Hundley… Nick Hundley?!  Okay, let’s face it.  Young catchers usually disappoint.  So that left me with Ramon Hernandez.  Exciting, huh?  A healthy Ramon Hernandez could easily get the same numbers as Jorge Posada for half the price.  Now THAT’S exciting!!!  No, actually it still isn’t.  Oh, well.  2010 Projections:  55/17/65/.265

After the top 20 catchers for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s a few names, but this one stands out:

Carlos Santana – Here’s the deal broken down to you so simply that Larry The Cable Guy could understand.  Even if a rookie catcher or upside pick doesn’t produce, you lose him in the first month of the season for someone else.  Random schmohawk off of waivers will give you the same production as at least half of the catchers above.  As for Oye Como Va, he may not start the year in the majors, but if he does there’s upside there.  Check the 2010 fantasy baseball Carlos Santana post for further encouragement.  2010 Projections:  60/13/75/.280

As legend goes, on May 30th, 1982, Orioles utility infielder, Lenn Sakata was so inspired by the hit film of the day, Conan the Barbarian, that he dressed in animal skin Jockey underwear “borrowed” from Jim Palmer and carried a cardboard sword into the locker room.  Now whether Cal Ripken (then Cal Ripken Jr.) knew the power in that cardboard sword or if he was just patronizing Sakata no one knows, but Ripken knelt on the floor in front of Sakata and asked him to touch his shoulder with the cardboard sword.  With a grand gesture, that was probably unnecessary, Sakata obliged.  As we all know, May 30th, 1982 began The Streak.  On the record, Ripken thanked his family and teammates for their support for making The Streak possible.  Off the record, of course, Ripken knew it was Lenn Sakata that forever changed history.  This year, Lenn Sakata returned to the Orioles locker room, dressed in only faux leather boots and a loincloth.  Most of the Orioles thought Sakata was a homeless person that snuck past security… Some thought he was the Asian guy from The Hangover… But Matt Wieters knew different.  Before security could escort Sakata out, Wieters knelt in front of him and asked Lenn to touch him with the cardboard sword.  The same cardboard sword that once touched Ripken’s shoulder.  (It also touched a young Jeffrey Hammonds’s shoulder.  Nevertheless…)  For the superstitious, this is enough for Matt Wieters to be a 2010 fantasy baseball keeper, but for the non-believers, let’s look at some other reasons.

In nearly 700 plate appearances in the minor leagues, Wieters had a line of .343/.438/.576.  At 6 feet 5 inches, he had some saying he was “Mauer with power.”  Turns out Mauer had power, which worked out for those who love to rhyme, and Wieters had rookie hiccups.  It wasn’t until the tail end of the year when Wieters started to show some of his promise, hitting .362/.425/.511 in September.  In 2010, Wieters could get to a line of 70/17/85/.300.  If those numbers look familiar, you might be Pablo Sandoval.  Check your midsection for confirmation.  That was near my 2009 projections for Sandoval; Wieters isn’t far off.  Those numbers are also a baseline.  There’s definite upside.  So there may just be magic in that cardboard sword of Lenn Sakata.  Heaven knows there’s magic in his loincloth.

Clayton Kershaw has more Ks than innings.  Call me a K whore all you want, but that alone is enough for me to get excited about Kershaw in 2010.  Do I need to say more?  Probably not, but I will.  He’ll be 22 in March of 2010.  A 21-year-old who threw a season of a sub-3 ERA season in 170 innings.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious, right?  Yeah, they are.  For a long time I’ve been wavering between Kershaw and Max Scherzer.  Well, I’m ready to choose one now.  They’re both young.  (Though Kershaw’s almost four years younger.)  They both strike out hitters more than a batter per inning.  (Though Kershaw’s a bit better this year.)  One sounds like a Brit, one sounds like a Nazi.  In the morning, they both go to the local mall and walk with the seniors.  Wait, I’m misreading my notes.  They walk a lot of batters, not bitties.  Kershaw’s walk rate was actually worse than Scherzer.  So why am I choosing Kershaw?  The Dodgers limited his innings towards the end of the year and the Diamondbacks abused poor Scherzer.  In 2008, Scherzer threw 109 innings between the majors and minors.  In 2009, he threw 164.  That’s a pretty significant jump.  Now I’m not saying I’d keep Kershaw over a known hitter commodity, but I would consider keeping him for the 2010 fantasy baseball season.  Definitely over Scherzer.  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers for 2010:

Psyche!  Before we get into that, I wanted to point out a scheduling adjustment.  Fridays used to be our weekly Buy/Sell.  Well, that’s gone for the offseason and keepers will now be on Friday.  As they say in Jamaica — carry on (your head)!

Matt Wieters – .362/.425/.511 in September.  Just wanted to get the hype going early.  Carry on.

Rajai Davis – Sure, steals don’t have a face.  But, if they did, they’d look a lot like Rajai Davis.  Chances are if you own him, you have him on the very cheap.  A cheap guy that could get you 50 steals in 2010?  Where do I sign up?  (I can’t wait until someone finds us who Googles:  Where do I sign up? + cheap Nazi bitties)

Yesterday, Rafael Furcal went 2-for-4 with a steal.  I thought Furcal was overvalued in the preseason because I thought he was more fragile than Alanis after a breakup.  Well, he’s actually played the whole season, albeit terribly.  He’s been on base over 200 times.  He has 10 steals with 6 times caught.  Who gave him Kirk Gibson’s fist-pumping legs for five months?  But, and here’s the head turner, he has 4 steals in the last seven games.  Not sure what happened to Furcal the first 95% of the season, 10 steals used to be a good month for him.  Maybe he’s a Latin 31.  But never us mind, he’s hot right now.  If he was dropped anywhere, he’s currently hitting over .500 in the last week with 4 steals.  Go fur it!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Bobby Jenks – I might’ve misspoke when I said Linebrink would be the closer.  Grey wrong?  Get outta here this instant! Yeah, I know, random italicized voice, the guy who traded for Jose Reyes in one league in May being wrong is crazy.  I originally said Linebrink because of how Ozzie had used him recently.  But Linebrink has been awful.  No disputing that.  Then again, I don’t think Matt Thornton’s going to suddenly become Franklin Morales of last week.  Either way, I don’t think this is a great situation for saves.  Okay, correction done.

Jermaine Dye – 2 HRs yesterday as he came down with a case of Furcalitis, a disease that boosts one’s stats when games no longer matter.

Michael Aubrey – HR yesterday.  I also really love him on Real Estate Intervention.

Matt Wieters – Hit another homer yesterday.  Member all that (lack of) work he did over the summer to make him underrated next year?  Yeah, he’s been outta his mind recently.  I knew it would happen eventually, I was kinda hoping eventually was next April.

Travis Snider – HR yesterday.  4 for his last 7, but it was against Orioles pitching and, as I tell my girlfriend, beware the small sample size.

Francisco Liriano – Should start against the Royals on Sunday.  He’ll get to face Greinke.  Sometimes it just ain’t your year.

Carlos Guillen – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs with 2 HRs yesterday.  With the way he’s played since returning from injury, he should sit out two months every year.  Oh, wait, he does.

Chad Billingsley – 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 Ks vs. the Nats.  I think they call this a tune-up for the playoffs.  Considering how broken down he’s been lately, they would be right.

Ryan Zimmerman – Hit his 31st homer yesterday and so did Miguel Cabrera.  I mention that for symmetry and because, other than the average, Zimmerman’s been just as valuable.

Drew Stubbs – 2-for-6, 2 steals.  What, no homers?

Homer Bailey – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 0 Ks.  Blech, but he got the win.  I’m gonna have to get over not liking him because I think I’ll probably own him in some leagues next year.

Jonathan Sanchez – 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks.  I pegged him as a borderline starter to take a gamble on for yesterday, along with Homer Bailey.

Randy Choate – Got the save yesterday.  So that’s who the closer is!  Choate came in to get two lefties and a righty (which turned into two righties and a lefty – Wakamatsu is a magician!)

Wade Davis – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  He gets Baltimore and supposedly the last start of the year vs. the Yankees, which will be the B lineup.  And there is no A lineup on the Orioles.

Gaby Sanchez – HR yesterday.  (S)He’s a decent name to look at in deep NL-Only keepers.  Keepers only though, (s)he’s not playing much at all right now.

Tim Hudson – 6 IP, 2 ER, 11 baserunners as he tied his owners to the WHIPping post.  As someone who watched 75% of this game, Hudson looked terrible.  Got very lucky, even with Kelly Johnson mucking up a double play ball.

Chris Narveson – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 Ks.  Anyone who’s read this blog for even a short period of time knows I got excited when I saw 10 Ks in under 6 innings.  Unfortunately, he gets the Rockies in Coors next time out so there’s nothing to see here.

Bud Norris – 6 IP, 0 ER.  Nice, but in the same boat as Narveson with a tough next matchup (@Philly).

Julio Borbon – Stole his 17th base yesterday in only 119 ABs.  I have a feeling someone’s value is going to be inflated next year.

Brad Lidge – 2/3 IP, 2 ER and his 11th blown save.  Imagine if Scioscia managed the Phillies.  Lidge would be in the Phanatic costume doing belly flops during rain delays.

Rich Harden – Now the Cubs are saying he may get shut down.  Yeah, I said that last week.  Read the blog, doode!

Milton Bradley – Has a new game, Pin The Blame On The Cubbies.