Fantasy Baseball Advice

How’s everyone holding up without baseball every day?  I don’t know what to do with myself!  Yesterday, I wandered into a Starbucks and told the coffeerista about Billy Butler for 2010.  She told me where to find Manic Panic hair dye so I could dye my roots blue (which is a great gospel group, but stick to My Roots Blue’s first two albums).  We’ve gone over the final 2009 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters and the top 20 starters.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

21. Jered Weaver – Is it me or does he look like a guy whose talent should be blowing snot rockets further than anyone else? Weaver struggled a bit vs. lefties last year (.276 BAA) and in the latter half of the year (Post-All-Star Break 4.47 ERA).  Preseason Rank #37, 2009 Projections:  14-9/3.75/1.25/160, Final Numbers:  16-8/3.75/1.24/174

22. Joel Pineiro – Unranked in 2009 and will probably be unranked again in 2010.  105 Ks; blech!  I’m sure I can think of at least 40 starters I’d prefer over a thirty-one year old pitcher with around a 4 K/9 who was entering their walk year.  He should donate a third of his next year’s salary to Dave Duncan’s favorite charity, Feed The Children, Namely Chris and Shelley.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-12/3.49/1.14/105

23. Clayton Kershaw – There’s nothing I love more than a pitcher who might be undervalued because of bad Win Karma.  He only won 8 games, bleh! Bleh, yourself.  Don’t worry about wins.  Almost as exciting as watching people avoid pitchers based on a low win total is watching people draft starters because they won a lot of games.  Pitfall, Harry!  Preseason Rank #47, 2009 Projections:  11-6/4.20/1.40/140, Final Numbers:  8-8/2.79/1.23/185

24. Johan Santana – Some may write it off as just one of those years for the Mets.  Saying they had the inverse Midas touch like anyone from a reality show in anything other than a reality show.  Unfortunately, Johan’s K/9 continued to fall in 2009, his walks rose, his BAA and WHIP went up.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  18-6/2.95/1.12/210, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.13/1.21/146

25. Edwin Jackson – A 2.52 ERA before the All-Star Game vs. a 5.07 ERA after.  February Grey is going to have to put on his aluminum foil hat to figure out if Jackson was simply a fluke in the first half or if he finally reached his potential only to then lose it again.  Preseason Rank #70, 2009 Projections:  11-9/4.50/1.50/120, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.62/1.26/161

26. Yovani Gallardo – Here’s another guy that had some ugly first and 2nd half splits.  On July 30th, Gallardo had an ERA of 3.13.  That was followed by August and September ERAs of 5.24 and 5.51 respectively.  The Brewers tried to limit his innings towards the end of the year, obviously they should’ve shut him down on July 30th.  By the time they did shut him down, I think it might have been just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.  I’m pretty sure I’m avoiding him next year.  Preseason Rank #33, 2009 Projections:  12-6/3.50/1.25/150, Final Numbers:  13-12/3.73/1.31/204

27. J.A. Happ – Happ confounded me.  Confounded I tell ya!  He really didn’t seem like he should’ve been as good as he was.  Remember, Rudy said he dropped Happ in his NL-Only league?  That wasn’t just Rudy coming off an all night bender or reading misinformed tea leaves.  Happ just doesn’t seem like he should’ve been as good as he was.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-4/2.93/1.23/119

28. Scott Baker – Here’s someone who actually got their shizz together as the season progressed, dropping his ERA by over two full runs in the 2nd half.  He did get hit pretty soundly by righties, which, frankly, is not terrific.  Preseason Rank #52, 2009 Projections:  12-6/3.95/1.22/150, Final Numbers:  15-9/4.37/1.19/162

29. Bronson Arroyo – Talking about someone who got their act together in the 2nd half, Arroyo wasn’t ownable in the 1st half (5.38 ERA).  In the last three years, he now has a pre-All-Star Break ERA of 5.39 and a post-All-Star Break of 3.06.  Guess who’s going to be a buy on July 1st, 2010.  Preseason Rank #63, 2009 Projections:  12-10/4.25/1.40/150, Final Numbers:  15-13/3.84/1.27/127

30. Tommy Hanson – For fear of a roofie, I didn’t own Hanson in any league.  Turned out Hanson was not only ready to make the jump t0 the big leagues, but he was ready to dominate.  He didn’t even tire as the season went on, putting up a great month of September and a solid final start of the season.  For Hanson, it was mmmbop, indeed.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-4/2.89/1.18/116

31. John Danks – At 41, I ranked Danks a lot higher in the preseason than most ‘perts because I saw something in Danks.  What I didn’t see was a pitcher whose homers, walks and luck would go up.  It was a mirage of a season in 2009. Preseason Rank #41, 2009 Projections:  14-10/3.90/1.28/160, Final Numbers:  13-11/3.77/1.28/149

32. Ryan Dempster – I just hate pitchers two years after they go from relieving to starting.  My rationale is they’re rested the year after relieving so they’ll pitch better than expected, while two years after they’ll pitch tired from being stretched out the previous year.  Didn’t seem to bother Dempster, but it still hasn’t swayed me otherwise.  Preseason Rank #45, 2009 Projections:  9-7/4.50/1.35/120, Final Numbers:  11-9/3.65/1.31/172

33. Randy Wells – Unlike what we saw with Hanson, here’s a rookie pitcher that did seem to tire as the season progressed.  Not to the point where he was unusable, but it was still there.  His WHIP (1.65 in September) started to move towards his minor league numbers with his BAA at .311.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-10/3.05/1.28/104

34. Gavin Floyd – Last year, I was wrong about Floyd as I said in the preseason, “Everything from last year points to him having more luck than stuff.  In fact, CHONE’s projections for 2009 has Floyd at a 5.05 ERA.”  And that’s me quoting me quoting CHONE!  Yeah, CHONE wasn’t the only one.  Wasn’t much to get excited about with Floyd.  His 2008 looked like an outlier.  In 2008, his FIP was 4.77 to a 3.84 ERA. Then, this year, his FIP was 3.77 to a 4.06 ERA.  What do you know, Floyd’s playing with us.  Preseason Rank #56, 2009 Projections:  12-11/4.50/1.32/140, Final Numbers:  11-11/4.06/1.23/163

35. Scott Feldman – There wasn’t any point this season when I would’ve picked up Feldman.  His value is coming mostly from great Win Karma.  Commenter, “Grey you said you needed wins in a few of your leagues, so shouldn’t you have picked up Feldman?”  Grey, “Um, yeah, I guess, technically, durrrrrrr.”  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-8/4.08/1.28/113

36. Matt Garza – I liked Garza in the preseason but didn’t end up with him on any team, because as is my wont — it’s my wont, ya’ll! — when choosing between two pitchers, I take the NL one first.  So Garza got passed up for the likes of Cain, Josh Johnson and/or The Wandwagon. Preseason Rank #38, 2009 Projections:  14-10/3.50/1.25/140, Final Numbers:  8-12/3.95/1.26/189

37. Chad Billingsley – Bust!  I saw a much better season coming from this schmohawk.  Guess this teaches us a very valuable lesson, don’t ignore Verducci.  I will love Billingsley again next year.  Major bounce back coming.  Preseason Rank #13, 2009 Projections:  16-6/3.35/1.33/200, Final Numbers:  12-11/4.03/1.32/179

38. Jorge de la Rosa – I may not have ranked him the preseason, but, as it turned out, you didn’t want to draft him in March anyway (5.21 ERA pre-All-Star Break).  I did plead with you like a bittie in the BK Lounge to pick him up in the middle of the season when you should’ve picked him up, so we’re good.   Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-9/4.38/1.38/193

39. Mark Buehrle – Hmm… Even the month he pitched his perfect game, he only had an ERA of 3.92.  Usual shizz with Buehrle, not great, not terrible.  Preseason Rank #82, 2009 Projections:  13-10/4.00/1.35/120, Final Numbers:  13-10/3.84/1.25/105

40. A.J. Burnett – I had serious doubts about Burnett putting together back-to-back seasons of 200 innings since he had never done it before in his career.  Congrats, Burnett, now go tug on your ear.  Preseason Rank #26, 2009 Projections:  13-9/4.15/1.30/140, Final Numbers:  13-9/4.04/1.40/195

Matt Lindstrom hits the DL with a sore elbow and should be out at least 6 weeks.  He’s fine to drop if you don’t have DL room, since he may not be the closer when/if he returns.  Rudy and I were talking over IM when the news of Matt Lindstrom hitting the DL broke.  We looked at the options.  Dan Meyer or Leo Nunez?  Meyer is a lefty that has been handling righties well this year.  Nunez has posted ERAs of 3.18, 3.77, 6.43 in the first three months of the season and he just hurt his ankle on Tuesday.  We went with Meyer on all of our teams.  At worst, we have a guy who has pitched well.  A few hours later, Nunez said his ankle was fine.  If I had to do it over again, I would’ve went with Nunez because he’s probably first in line for saves.  SAGNOF, after all.  I’m holding Meyer for now just to see how this plays out.  So far, it’s played out with Meyer getting the first save.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Edinson Volquez – Almost a month after heading to the DL, Edinson has elbow inflammation.  This is obviously terrible news for his owners.  An arm setback after almost of a month hiatus usually means he’s not coming back for a while.

Homer Bailey – Should get the call on Saturday.  That call goes like this, “Hey, Dusty here.”  “This is Homer.”  “Simpson?”  “Bailey.”  “What’s up, Homer Bailey?”  “You called me.”  “Oh.”  Dusty puts down the phone at this point and makes Harang throw 200 warmup pitches.  Then Homer hears in the background Dusty telling Paul Janish to hang up the phone.  Bailey’s worth grabbing in NL-Only leagues.  I wouldn’t trust him in mixed leagues shallower than 15 team.  He’s fubar’d too many opportunities at this point to run out and grab him.  And if you do grab him, don’t start him.

Jonny Gomes – HR yesterday as he fills in for Beltran on three of our teams.  (The “our” is for Rudy.)

Aaron Hill/Adam Lind – Both homered, 16th and 15th, respectively.  I feel like I answer lots of trade questions about getting rid of these guys.  Why does everyone want to lose them?  Afraid of happiness?  They’re solid.  Rios or Hill?  Hill.  Lind or Markakis?  Markakis, but not really by much and Lind can out perform him.  30/100 is nothing to sneeze at.  Unless you’re allergic to productive outfielders.

Brad Lidge – Should return today, I’d hold Ryan Madson for the time being, because Lidge has been ready to pitch in 28 games so far this year and has a 7.27 ERA.

Kenshin Kawakami – Was hit with a linedrive to the side of his neck.  Should be fine, according to his doctors that are located over the *pinkie to mouth* Throbs Neck Bridge.

Evan Longoria – Left with moans over his hammy.  He said he’ll be back by Thursday.

Pat Burrell – Hit his 2nd homer of the year.  2nd homer?  That’s awful.  Hopefully, he hasn’t been clogging up too many of your teams.  The good news is if he’s on waivers he gets very hot for stretches.  Could hit 10 homers in the next month.

Matt Garza – 8 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks vs. Phils.  Last two starts, he couldn’t get through the 6th inning and gave up 4 and 3 runs, respectively.  When Garza pitches, you know you’re going to get something.  What something is a whole different ballgame.

Joe Blanton – 7 IP, 2 ER, 10 Ks.  Yeah, and I had Wolf going all over the place giving up five runs to the White Sox.  Fantasy Baseball, Aggravating you for over twenty years.

Rich Harden – 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 Ks, 4 walks.  I’ve never been a fan of Harden.  But I wasn’t a fan of the when-healthy-extremely-effective Rich Harden.  Who is this Rich Harden?  This isn’t him.

David Ortiz – HR yesterday.  I’m willing to admit it, he’s back.  Now you’re still up against a guy who has no position eligibility.  That kills your team’s flexibility.  You see a hot hitter on waivers?  With Ortiz at UTIL, you’ll have no place to put him.

Grady Sizemore – 2nd game back, first homer.  Great sign!  Then again, he hit a homer the day before he went on the DL.  Damn you, half empty glass.

Zach Duke – 6 IP, 1 ER.  Has a 3.09 ERA on the year.  Zoinks!

Adam LaRoche – 3-for-4, 11th homer, 2nd steal, 1 cat saved from a burning building.

Nick Evans – HR yesterday as he got the start at first.  Makes sense for the Mets to give the kid starts over Tatis, not sure if he’ll continue to start over Murphy though.  He may find himself in a platoon of sorts and hurting his breakout potential.  He does have solid pop and a decent eye.  Other than NL-Only keepers, it’s a bit early to be looking at him.

Ricky Nolasco – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks.  I won’t go as far to say he’s fully back, but I will say he seems fully back.  Modified!

Nick Blackburn – 8 IP, 3 ER, 12 baserunners, 2 Ks.  41 Ks/26 BBs on the year with a 3.11 ERA.  You are a statistical anomaly!

Miguel Olivo – Another homer yesterday.  Has something like 20 homers this month.

Josh Fields – 2 HRs yesterday.  That’s one homer for each start he’s had in the last ten days.

Gavin Floyd – 6 IP, 1 ER.  I hope someone’s riding this wave so I can live vicariously, because I don’t own him in any league. (<–Not by choice.)

Frank Francisco – Being eased back into the closer role.  They ease much longer and he’s going to be back on the DL before he gets another save.

Brandon Morrow – Threw 2 innings three starts ago, 3 innings two starts ago, then 4 innings one start ago.  Guess how many yesterday?  Yup, 5.  Anyone want some action on how many he’s going to throw next time out?

Vladimir Guerrero – Hit his 2nd homer yesterday.  Now only two behind the Subaru pace car of Abreu.

Everth Cabrera – Newest shortstop-schmohawk-SAGNOF guy.  Definitely worth a flier if you need steals.

Vicente Padilla – After a typical start, after a 7 IP, 1 ER start.

Greetings, fantasy baseball friends.  Jersey Joe, a new columnist, here with the low-down on the AL starters who will climb the hill twice this week (Monday-Sunday).  Always remember that predicting pitching performance is like predicting the weather, but that said, here are my thoughts for the week…

RANKINGS

1.  Zack Greinke (KC) – CHW (Colon), @LAA (Loux)
My $.02:  He’s the AL shizz right now at the SP spot, no doubt.  Don’t need to check any matchups, opponent OPS, etc.  Start him until further notice.

2.  Felix Hernandez (SEA) – TEX (Millwood), @MIN (Liriano)
My $.02:  The King is claiming his throne.  4-0, more than a K per IP, and a manageable walk rate.  Like the Zack Attack, start him until further notice.

3.  Erik Bedard (SEA) – TEX (Padilla), @MIN (Blackburn)
My $.02:  Interestingly enough, Bedard’s getting his act together in a free-agent season.  Coincidence?  I think not.  No offense, but this guy’s not a ballplayer – he’s a Canadian fur-trapper trapped in pitcher’s body.  I am fairly confident he doesn’t like baseball most of the time.  But he likes it this year, because if he throws well enough, he can convince the Pinstripes or some other team to hand him $53.3 M for 4 years – yup, enough money to build a start-up fur-trapping business into a Canadian conglomerate.  This week, he gets a Hamilton-less Rangers O-ffence (sticking with the Canadian theme) in Safeco, and then the Mariners visit the Twinkies.  Roll with him.  Especially in Canada.

4.  Jon Lester (BOS) — Mon-@NYY (Chamberlain), Sat-TB (Kazmir)
My $.02:  Let’s play good news/bad news.  Bad news: He’s starting in the JetStream and the Yanks’ OPS vs. LHP is 993(!).  Good news: He’s pitched extremely well against both the Pinstripers and the Rays in his (short) career.  More good news: he beat cancer!  If he’s on your team, go get yourself one of those Live Strong yellow bracelets, start him this week, and enjoy life.

5.  Matt Garza (TB) — Tue-BAL (Uehara), Sun-@BOS (Beckett)
My $.02:  Like most TB starters, Garza is a straight-up homeboy… Yup, he likes pitching in the dome he calls home.  Plus, his career numbers versus the boys from Charm City are fantastic.  So his first start looks great.  Start #2 vs. the Sawx?  Yeah, he’s thrown well against them in the past, but I’d like this a lot more if the game was down by the bay (where the watermelons grow…sing it, moms and dads!).  With Beckett’s struggles, though, Garza looks a bit better.  A solid start in most leagues.

6.  Scott Kazmir (TB) — Mon-BAL (Eaton), Sat-@BOS (Lester)
My $.02:  Kaz’s been Forrest’s box of chocolates this season – Joe Maddon and fantasy owners are scratching their heads over his inconsistency.  I really like Start #1: Baltimore’s OPS vs. LHP is 10th in AL, Adam Eaton isn’t, umm, good, and Kaz feasts at home like his rotation brothers.  At Boston against Jon Lester, of course, gives me pause, but the vaunted BOS lineup has struggled vs. LHP in ‘09 (OPS: 9th in AL).  I’m feeling two nice ones from Scotty this week.

7.  Edwin Jackson (DET) — Mon-MIN (Liriano), Sat-@CLE (Reyes)
My $.02:  Love him this week.  Whatever leagues you play, you should start Edwin and enjoy the bounty a-comin’.  He’s pitched extremely well this season despite a dip in his K/9, and the breakout is quietly happening.  Minny’s got Mauer back, but the aside from Morneau-Mauer-Kubel, there’s not much there.  His opposing starters?  Well, Liriano’s not himself, and Anthony Reyes is thisclose to getting sent down – if the Indians had some healthy/good options, he’d be gone already.  Don’t leave Eddy on the bench this week, my friends.  Please.

8.  Joba Chamberlain (NYY) — Mon-BOS (Lester), Sat-@BAL (Eaton)
My $.02:  Ahh, Joba.  The hype machine (not the blogosphere – let’s get that straight) is disappointed you’re not throwing 97 mph anymore.  Me?  I’m not as demanding – 93 mph is fine by me, friend.  Just watch the walks (13 BB in 23.1 IP) – you can’t rely on the Yanks’ infield D to keep bailing you out with double plays, unless Mark Teixiera can play all 4 spots at the same time (which, incidentally, he should be able to do, for all that dough he’s getting).  Not crazy about his start against the Sawx, who are patient enough to wait pitchers out and then pounce. (That’s essentially what happened in his start vs. BOS last week.)  But with Papi’s struggles and Francona’s insistence on letting him work through them in the heart of the order, I’m less concerned.  He can handle the O’s top-heavy lineup in Start #2, and with Adam Eaton on the other end, he should have run support (over/under NYY runs: 7?).  Take a shot with Joba this week.

9.  Francisco Liriano (MIN) — Mon-@DET (Jackson), Sat-SEA (Hernandez)
My $.02:  Picture this – A sunny day in Fantasy Land.  All is not well, however.  Cries ring in the streets, as I call out in desperation for a familiar name.  “2006 Francisco Liriano?  Where are you?  2006 Francisco Liriano?  Come on home, please!  Where are you?”  “I’m sorry, Jersey Joe.  We found him, but he’s lost an arm.”  “Which one?” I ask, hoping for the best.  “The one with the devastating slider and fastball, I’m afraid.”   This week: A righty-heavy DET lineup at Comerica (4th in AL OPS vs. LHP) and then the punch less M’s at home (though he opposes King Felix).  Classic “one good start, one bad start” situation.  I’d probably start him in most leagues, but don’t expect 2006 again.  Like, ever.

10.  Josh Beckett (BOS) — Tue-@NYY (Burnett), Sun-TB (Garza)
My $.02:  2009 hasn’t been kind to Josh.  36 H in 28.2 IP…not so good.  But what really gives me the willies about him?  16 BB in those same 28.2 IP.  He walked 34 last season… in 174.1 IP.  Yikes.  This week, he slings the hardball in the JetStream (New Yankee Stadium) against a rejuvenated Yankee offense before heading home to face Garza and the Rays.  Another pertinent note about Beckett – his ERA at Fenway the last 3 years: 5.65, 4.17, 4.84.  So what am I saying?  You probably can’t bench him, but he doesn’t look poised for much success this week

11.  Brett Anderson (OAK) — Mon-LAA (Loux), Sat-TOR (Tallet)
My $.02:  He’s a nice young SP who has thrown much better than his numbers attest, and he’s at home in the cavernous Oakland Mausoleum (where hitters go to die… just ask Matt Holliday!) for both starts.  Plus, his opposing starters stink.  On the flip side – the Toronto offense is raking these days, and LAA can dink and dunk their way to keeping it close.  But I’m feeling B.A. this week, so if you trust a random fantasy blogger you’ve never met, take a chance on Brett (and me) and start him.  ***Injury note: Anderson is dealing with a blister, but it apparently shouldn’t be a problem.  Just be careful here

12.  A.J. Burnett (NYY) — Tue-BOS (Beckett), Sun-@BAL (Uehara)
My $.02:  Look, the guy’s got nipple rings.  That, to me, says “No Fear”.  I mean, my nipples chafe when I wear a tight t-shirt, and I consider that painful enough to take a sick day.  So, we know he’s not intimidated by the mighty Sawx hitters, and the numbers bear that out, as he’s traditionally pitched well against them (at least until he was bombed by them this season).  But something’s not quite right with A.J. this season.  Adjusting to a new team?  New piercings in sensitive places?  Vandalizing school property?  Blowing up a car?  Whatever the reason, Tony and Carmella would ground him – should you?  Well, with BOS at home, and then a second start against the O’s, a team he’s struggled against in his career, I’m not very confident.  If you do start him, you might receive a fantasy purple nurple from the Nipple King.  Be prepared

13.  Kyle Davies (KC) — Tue-CHW (Floyd), Sun-@LAA (Ortega)
My $.02:  Yeah, he’s basically become a usable starter in AL Only and deep mixed leagues, as scary as that sounds.  This week, two so-so offenses challenge Kyle’s trip up the AL Starter ranks.  The White Sox don’t hit RHP well and fare much better at home, and while the Angels of LA can bleed a pitcher to death with Mike Scioscia’s version of small ball, I’m just not afraid of that lineup without Bad Vlad.  Borderline, but I’d probably start him in AL Only leagues

14.  Kevin Millwood (TEX) — Mon-@SEA (Hernandez), Sat-@CHW (Colon)
My $.02:  Believe it or not, he’s a decent option this week.  The mighty (lucky, so far) M’s sport an OPS vs. RHP under .700 (which puts them next to last in the AL in that category), and Ozzie’s boys are just one spot better.  If you need him, use him

15.  Dallas Braden (OAK) — Tue-LAA (Ortega), Sun-TOR (Cecil)
My $.02:  Every year, there’s a few SP that come out of nowhere and give you stats for a stretch.  Braden’s been one of those guys this season.  Yeah, there’s some talent here, but its not clear how much.  Regardless, with both starts in Oakland, I think you should roll the dice, as the Angels don’t hit lefties much and the Jays are starting a rookie (Brett Cecil) who clearly isn’t read for prime time against Braden in Start #2

16.  Gavin Floyd (CHW) — Tue-@KC (Davies), Sun-TEX (Padilla)
My $.02:  I was more bullish on this guy than most, because: 1) he was a 1st round pick and has some talent; and, 2) he had a lights-out spring training.  Now, I know what you’re thinking: spring training doesn’t matter.  Hold on, I say; for a young guy trying to consolidate his skill development, I think it does.  Unfortunately, Gavin’s struggled in the early going and I don’t have a clear sense of what to expect.  KC stinks against righties, and TEX doesn’t hit well away from Arlington…but again, this one’s a crapshoot.  I’d probably sit him this early in the season for a safer option

17.  Rick Porcello (DET) — Tue-MIN (Blackburn), Sun-@CLE (Carmona)
My $.02:  Not a terrible slate this week for the young star.  His problem seems to be command; he loses his stuff after a few innings, and once he falls behind, he can’t seem to figure out how to work his way out of it.  Until he strings together a few solid starts, I’d bench him except in deep AL Only leagues.  But he is coming, folks.  Be patient

18.  Nick Blackburn (MIN) — Tue-@DET (Porcello), Sun-SEA (Bedard)
My $.02:  Are you chasing wins?  Because there’s no other reason to have this guy in your lineup otherwise.  His ERA might be passable, but he doesn’t K anyone and his WHIP won’t help you any.  Not the worst matchups in the world, I guess, as the Tigers and Mariners don’t exactly hammer righties, so if he’s on your roster, you can use him.  Just know what you’re getting – a shot at two wins.  Nothing more, and possibly, a lot less (meaning damage to your ERA and WHIP could hurt you.  To me, the down outweighs the up, but it’s your team, right?

19.  Bartolo Colon (CHW) — Mon-@KC (Greinke), Sat-TEX (Millwood)
My $.02:  Don’t call it a comeback!  Yes, the Chubby One (and look at that hair!) has returned, but that doesn’t mean you need to get on the bus.  Because if you did, it would likely tip over.  Or, he’d try to eat you.  Do you want that?  I didn’t think so.

20.  Koji Uehara (BAL) — Tue-@TB (Garza), Sun-NYY (Burnett)
My $.02:  I don’t speak Japanese, but if I could, I’d draw/write characters that translate into the following description for Koji’s chances this week: a major typhoon and Godzilla crushing Tokyo – at the same time.  Look, could he surprise me?  Sure.  But I just don’t think his stuff (caution: ScoutSpeak) is good enough to handle AL East lineups.  I’m issuing a hold on Koji for this week.  Wait for the right matchups with this guy, or you shall suffer the consequences

21.  Fausto Carmona (CLE) — Tue-@TOR (Cecil), Sun-DET (Porcello)
My $.02:  It seemed like just yesterday that Fausto was licking those green midges off his lips like some leftover poppy seeds from a toasty bagel, mowing down Yankee hitters while Joe Torre slept, err, sat stone-faced on the bench.  Fast-forward to 2009, and it appears that he’s become one of those midges on the mound.  If you like pain, I invite you to allow Fausto to throw home run balls for you to the Toronto Bomb Jays and the Detroit Tigers this week.  Otherwise, please bench him

22.  Anthony Reyes (CLE) — Mon-@TOR (Tallet), Sat-DET (Jackson)
My $.02:  Don’t start him.  Under any circumstances.

23.  Brian Tallet (TOR) — Mon-CLE (Reyes), Sat-@OAK (Anderson)
My $.02:  Nope.

Hey, Matt Holliday finally hit a homer!  Please don’t tell me this is gonna be negative! Sorry, random italicized voice.  If you look at Holliday’s peripheral numbers you would see a guy that is more or less in line with his norms.  Now here’s the real kick in the nads.  He’s K’ing and walking less.  So what do I take away from that?  Trouble.  To me this means, Holliday is seeing more pitches to hit because AL pitchers haven’t been worried about him and rather than making them pay, Holliday’s putting the ball into play in the form of a flyout or groundout.  He’s hitting a bit fewer line drives than normal so that means his average may go up a bit, but I don’t think we see the .330 we were accustomed to in Colorado.  Now that he hit a homer, see if you can convince someone Holliday’s back from, uh, holiday.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Matt Garza – 7 2/3 IP, 2 baserunners.  Sonavabench!  This is the problem with Garza.  He instills so little confidence.  We’ll see what he does next time out.  I got suspicions.

Josh Beckett – 4 2/3 IP, 7 ER.  Even the AL pitchers I like give me agita.  This is why I own Wolf, Paulino and Gaudin and have cast aside Carmona and Davies.  I’m convinced, it’ll make for longer life expectancy.

Julian Tavarez – 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  Maybe he should’ve screamed nicely at the ball last night.

Joel Hanrahan – Quick actin’ Acta brought Hanrahanananan in to relieve Tavarez.  I’m close to calling uncle here.

Ryan Zimmerman – Another HR as he approaches his total from last year.  Well, not really but it feels that way.

Aramis Ramirez – Cubs said he will avoid the DL.  Hopefully, it’s that and not, he’ll avoid the DL for ten days then play one game then go on the DL.  Cause I’m not a fan of the 2nd option.

Jeff Weaver – 4 IP, 0 ER.  Guess what, Mom?  Your number one is back!  What?  You missed my game because you were resting up to watch Jered tomorrow?  Oh.  Yeah, I like his hair too.

Chris Volstad – 7 IP, 2 ER. Wasn’t an easy matchup, but pitched very well.  I’m convinced the Marlins have the best scouts in baseball.  They are so cheap… How cheap are they?  They got rid of Josh Willingham because he was too expensive. But they always seem to put a decent product on the field.

Sean Marshall – 7 IP, 1 ER.  I liked him coming into the year, but then when he didn’t pitch until the middle of the month I had to move on.  Now he’s at 19 IP and a 3.32 ERA with 15 Ks on the year.

Jorge Cantu – Another HR.  Where ya at, Nick Swisher?

Mike Napoli – Hit his 4th home run yesterday.  This is why you ignore playing time and just put him in your catcher’s slot.

Huston Street – He might already be back in the closer’s picture.  That picture obviously isn’t pretty, but SAGNOF.

John Buck – Two triples.  5 RBIs.  I haven’t seen that much hustling from a guy named Buck since Midnight Cowboy.

Jesus Flores – Delivered a teabagger right in Joe Thurston’s face.

Mark Teahen – 8 runs for the Royals and he goes 0-for-5 with 1 Run.  What a ticker tease!

Mitchell Boggs – Has there ever been a more lawyery sounding pitcher than Mitchell Boggs.  Mitchell Boggs – Attorney at Law.  I can hear dear Phil Hartman’s faux sincere tone being his voice.  In his 2nd game started, he fanned 9 Nationals.  Granted, the batting practice pitcher does that every day before the game but still.  His minor league record indicates 5th starter (on an MLB team not fantasy team) at least for this year but he’s worth stashing in an NL-only team.

Dallas Braden – 5 “scoreless” innings. Quotes because Sweeney robbed Kinsler of a three-run homer.

Max Scherzer – You can’t K as many guys as him and Kershaw and not have breakout potential.

Chris Carpenter – May be back by late-May as he ran without pain.  May! (Rule of 3’s)

Eric Chavez – Headed to the DL.  Looks like someone was jealous of all the attention Nomar was getting.

Juan Cruz – Save as he fills in for Soria.  Soria’s supposed to come back, but that doesn’t mean he will.  Remember these clubs play fast and loose with the truth.

Chorizo – Still hasn’t won a race in Milwaukee this year.  Something smells fishy!  Wait, that’s the seafood paella!

In yesterday’s game, Matt Kemp had 2 HRs and 5 RBIs. On the season, he’s batting .383 with 3 HRs, 14 RBIs, 12 Runs and 4 steals.  The 7th spot in the order is killing his value like Daniel Craig killed the Bond series.  Kemp’s a solid choice for NL MVP and I could see him moving to the 1st round next year for fantasy baseball drafts.  He said in the preseason that he wanted to go 40/40.  Can he actually do it?  Like Chris Young, it’s a tall order.  You don’t fall into 40/40 and, in Chavez Ravine, it’s not going to be easy for the 40 homers.  But the fact he wants to steal 40 bases is telling.  Steals are partially about motivation.  Sometimes guys just don’t want to steal (see Krispie Young in ‘08).  Other times, players pile steals on to show they can (Canseco’s 40/40 year).  I doubt Kemp reaches 40 homers, but 30/30 with a .300 average isn’t crackers.  We shall call him Sizemoremore.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Glen Perkins – 8 IP, 1 ER.  You’re talking about a pitching who had a 4.41 ERA last year, but a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) rate of 5.14.  That’s pretty bad.  Okay, I’m being generous.  That’s awful.  Yes, he was lucky to only have an ERA of 4.41.  His MOLLY (Mitigating Of Lousy Loathsome Yuck) was 7.  That means he got pretty lucky.  So far this year his MOLLY is 9.9.  His BABIP has been insanely lucky so far, his fly balls are all over the place yet falling into fielders’ gloves.  He’s due for a regression.  If you own him, you’re bound to get Mollywopped.

Ricky Romero – 7 IP, 0 ER.  To answer 95% of the questions off the bat, he’s better than Perkins.  We thought at first that he might be an old-school Joker (BLAM!) but he has a fairly sustainable BABIP, his K/9 could get better and his average against is in line with norms.  His walks are very low (for him), and he’s left a lot of guys on base, so he will see a correction in his future (SMACK!), but his FIP is only 3.86.  You feeling stressed with Baker, Parra and Dice-K?  Might want to try a little R & R. (POW!)

Rick Porcello – 7 IP, 1 ER.  He’s matchups material in 12 team and smaller leagues.  He’s very young, so Mike Seaver-sized growing pains should be expected.  6 innings, three earned, four Ks should be his typical line.

Adam Jones – Left with a sore hamstring and bloodshot eyes.

Manny Corpas – Kazaam!  Don’t you just love Clint Hurdle anointing him closer then bringing him into this game?

Edinson Volquez – 6 IP, 1 ER, but gave up 5 walks.  I hate to rain on your fantasy parade, but Volquez is still not pitching well.  You can’t walk 5 guys in 6 innings and win… Unless, of course, you’re playing the Astros.

Cody Ross – 3rd HR.  Could he be this year’s Nady?  Well, if he gets real lucky on average.  He could hit .260 and 25 HRs aka 90% of the outfielders on waivers in 12 team and smaller leagues.

Randy Johnson – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks, 1 Hit.  Didn’t hurt that no one on the Diamondbacks is currently hitting, but Randy’s still very capable of these games.  Unfortunately, he’s now capable of the 7 run disaster he threw last time out.

Matt Garza – 5 2/3 IP, 7 ER.  It’s becoming a broken record, but he was also a risky pitcher.

Javier Vazquez – 6 IP, 0 ER, 8 Ks. Since his breaking pitches went up, he also showed up on the risky pitchers post.  But so far JV has been, like ohmigod, straight varsity.

Raul Ibanez – HR and batting .386.  I wasn’t a huge fan of his coming into this year… I mean, I liked him, but he is what he is.  Anyway, one league where my team is doing abysmally, he’s been that team’s one bright spot.  If he can now send a memo to Prince, Reynolds, Bruce and Alexei, that would be swell.

Chris Iannetta – Iannetta answers all Razzball readers who were looking to drop him with a HR yesterday.  Now if he can get 28 more hits this year, he’ll have those 30 HRs you covet.

B.J. Upton – Left with quad tightness.  Looks like he now has an excuse for his lollygagging.

Kyle Davies – 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 Ks.  If he gives you that line every time out, you have to be happy.  Not happy happy, but “Hey, it’s Kyle Davies, I’ll take it” happy.

Gavin Floyd – 7 IP, 2 ER.  Ted Nugent.  Is the answer to, “Who could persuade me to pick him up?”

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – With that last name would it have been too much to go with the standard Jared or even Jarod?  His saving grace so far this year is Teagarden hasn’t been much better.  I’m going to suggest you punt Salty by next Sunday if he doesn’t breakout out of his funk.  The only reason why I’m being so patient is A) He’s a catcher, so if he only hits 15 HRs this year, he’s still worth it.  B) He’s talented in a great home park and in a stacked lineup.  C) No C, but you could break B up into a few parts if you’d like.

Chris Davis – Benched yesterday.  If he ends up the biggest bust of the season, we’re gonna have to get a collection together to fly someone to have a “word” with Bill James about his Davis preseason projections of 107/40/118/.302/8.  I think we should send Mr. Met.  Bill will never expect anything.