Fantasy Baseball Advice

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Atlanta Braves preview.)

Although it’s been two seasons since the end of the greatest divisional winning streak in professional sports history came to an end the Braves still have hope of bringing another division crown home in 2008. Under new General Manager Frank Wren, Atlanta returns a core of veterans and a group of baby braves that aren’t so baby anymore.

Just as pitching lead the Braves to those fourteen divisional titles, they must count on their pitching to win games. With the return of longtime Atlanta favorite Tom Glavine (prediction 12-9 4.20ERA), the Braves have a trio of former twenty game winners at the top of the rotation. If Mike Hampton (prediction 4-6 5.20ERA) can return to his what seems like an eternity ago peak then that trio becomes a quartet. Early indications show Hampton looking strong, but as we have learned in previous seasons nobody is holding their breath. As long as Hudson (prediction 17-12 3.44ERA) and Smoltz (prediction 16-10 3.25ERA) can perform in the role of team aces and Glavine can just be relied on to eat up innings I believe he can still be very effective at this point in his career. Also the rejuvenated competition between longtime friend and teammate John Smoltz should help Glavine to dig down deep for that extra competitive edge. The remaining two slots in the rotation will be a very interesting battle to watch throughout the season. Of course Hampton will be given every shot and Chuck James (prediction 10-9 4.35ERA) also has an inside track on the other opening, you have to like the other young options that the Braves could turn to. Jo-Jo Reyes and Buddy Carlyle were given some chances last year with mixed results, but Jair Jurrjens who came over in the Renteria trade has looked fantastic in spring training. The dark horse candidate is Charlie Morton. Charlie is a relatively unknown who has already impressed manager Bobby Cox and I see him getting a call up and being a regular contributor by the end of the season.

Atlanta’s bullpen is anchored by Rafael Soriano (prediction 2.70ERA 38SV) who will be called upon to be the teams full time closer this year. Last year he showed flashes of brilliance and the ability to dominate games in the later innings. It is critical for him to be able to perform at this level the entire season. Peter Moylan (prediction 2.20ERA 5SV) will be asked to setup and a duty that if he struggles could share with the lefty, Mike Gonzalez, once Gonzalez returns from the DL midseason. Although the rest of the bullpen is young and inexperienced, there are many great arms and lots of potential. Manny Acosta, Will Ohman, Tyler Yates, Royce Ring, and Blaine Boyer will all compete for time in the pen.

The Braves infield is anchored by Mark Teixiera (prediction .305 39/119) and Chipper Jones (prediction .325 25/98). Teixiera and Jones are easily the most dynamic 3-4 combo in the majors. Never have two slugging switch hitters anchored a lineup like this before and they promise to wreck havoc on pitchers all season. Middle infielders Yunel Escobar (prediction .290 12/70) and Kelly Johnson (prediction .290 18/79) will set the table for the switch hitter mashers. In a partial season Yunel was very impressive at the plate and Kelly Johnson showed amazing plate discipline. Slugging catcher Brian McCann (prediction .295 25/95) at 24 is already one of the best offensive catchers in the game and his defense continues to improve.

Although Atlanta’s outfield looks like their biggest weakness fortunately it is where they have the largest wealth of prospects and talent. Gold Glove winner Jeff Francoeur (prediction .300 25/100) will again play RF and it looks like Matt Diaz (prediction .315 18/80) will be given the full time job in LF a job that I believe he fully deserves. Diaz is career .320 hitter (774 at bats) and his defense in the field is actual better than the league average. With the departure of longtime and perennial CF Andruw Jones taking his ten gold gloves to Los Angeles and no major free agent signing to fill the vacancy the center field position is wide open for this coming season. Mark Kotsay and Josh Anderson were brought in and will be given the initial opportunities to fill the void. Should either of them stumble, top prospect Jordan Schafer will be ready. It’s the universal belief that Schafer will be the long term solution and will be the starting CF by the start of the 2009 season. The Braves also have many other solid prospects should they need any additional outfield help. Jason Heyward who was Atlanta’s top pick in 2007 is believed to have superstar makeup and Gorkys Hernandez will both be ready if called upon.

Martin Prado and Scott Thorman are out of options so they will take up two slots on the bench. Tom Glavine isn’t the only former Braves all-star looking to make a comeback with the team. Javy Lopez is battling for a bench job as the backup catcher. His bat has always been his strength, but the reports have been very encouraging that he will win a bench spot with much improved defense. By breaking his hand Omar Infante has opened a temporary spot on the bench. Brent Lillibridge is a solid defender with plus speed who hopes to prove to the major league club that he will have long term value as a short stop. Upon returning Infante is an undervalued utility player who actually is a solid hitter and can efficiently play many positions.
Andruw Jones provided the Braves with gold glove defense in center field for over a decade. Any member of the pitching staff will tell you they benefited from having him effortlessly track down balls in the gap and turn extra base hits into outs. The combination of the Braves ability to adjust to this absence or a player being able to step up and fill the gap will be what can end the Braves drought and win another pennant. The lineup is strong and the pitching staff looks to be the best in the last few years, unfortunately the division hasn’t been this competitive in quite a while. The Phillies and Mets both are legitimate division winning challengers and the two having won a division title in the past two years only helps their confidence and validates their threat. The pitching staff staying healthy and effective will make or break Atlanta’s playoff and division chances. I wouldn’t bet against them, but the road will be long and challenging.

Kyle James runs The Tomahawk a news portal to blogosphere that syndicates Atlanta Braves blogs. He also guest writes for various Braves blogs including Blabberin Braves.

What you say, you need fantasy baseball sleepers for 2008? You’re looking to get some value at your fantasy draft. Yeah, you and every other schmohawk who’s reading this. Luckily, there’s enough crap out there to distract enough people. So here’s a quick breakdown of 2008 fantasy baseball sleepers for every position. If you want their projections, check the “Players by Position” dropdown on the left side or download Rudy Gamble’s 2008 Player Rater, it’s free, viral and virus-free as far as I can tell. BTW, we’ve covered some of these dudes in past sleeper articles here, here , here and finally here. This list is going to be quick and to the point (unlike this intro).

CATCHERS

Ramon Hernandez – He’s back and his parents didn’t feel the need to spell his first name backwards, so there’s that. (Retire, Nomar, and go prepare a Cobb Salad for Mia.)

Carlos Ruiz – Geovany Soto’s now being touted like he’s the coming Messiah and J.R. Towles might be okay, but you really shouldn’t be going caca-cuckoo for any rookie catchers. You know where your misplaced love should be focused? Ruiz. He could put up Posada numbers with a handful of steals to boot. You’re welcome.

FIRST BASEMEN

Conor Jackson – He’s looking at everyday duty without Tony Clark looming. And, weighing in at 540 lbs. and stepping over the top rope at seven feet-four inches, Tony Clark looms. Conor stops looking over his shoulder and does something. C.J.’s still young, btw.

Casey Kotchman – If I say one more time that Magic recovered from AIDS quicker than Casey recovered from mono, I’m going to hell. Kotchman’s back, ya’ll.

SECOND BASEMEN

Alberto Callaspo — Why won’t Grudzielanek retire? I blame the Royals.

Dustin Pedroia – A Red Sox under the radar after winning ROY? Um, kinda. He’s being undervalued. Whatevs, grab him.

Robinson Cano – A Yankee without farkin’ bees swarming around him? Yeah, sorta. He’s the homer/RBI cheese to your middle infielders’ steal macaronis.

SHORTSTOPS

Yunel Escobar — Here’s what I said months ago, “His OBP hovered around .380 for his career in pro ball and he has decent speed and power. He could easily be a poor man’s Renteria. I know, that doesn’t sound that enticing, but there’s a place for that.” Damn, I got wisdom.

Miguel Tejada – Okay, not exactly a sleeper in the conventional sense, but he’s not done. He ripped up DR’s winter ball in the offseason and he’s playing with something to prove (that he’s urinating clean).

THIRD BASEMEN

Alex Gordon – Disregard last season and give him another shot; in ’09, he’s not going to be cheap.

Edwin Encarncion  – I never thought I’d say this, but I actually like Edwin Encarncion a lot this year. I got hate in my heart for him because he doesn’t run out routine popups and Dusty may get sick of that shizz, but here’s to Edwin hustling this year.

OUTFIELDERS

Matt Diaz – So what he’s got a rep for killing only lefties, you can’t make roster moves? Slot him in against lefties. FYhoo, I think he hits both sides this year.

Luke Scott – Anyone with the first name Luke can play baseball. Just not in the majors (Luke Appalling, excluded). I hesitated putting Scott on this list, but he gets a shot this year. Worth a late round flier to take a gamble. (Full disclosure: I try to only give advice I would follow, and I won’t draft Luke in any league, so, well, now you know.)

Michael Bourn – I’ve covered Bourn so much, he’s moving into mancrush territory.

Carlos Quentin – I don’t even know if he has a job. Let’s hope he does, because last year wasn’t indicative of his talent.

Shane Victorino – I’ve  touted Victorino to the point where I’m not even sure he’s a sleeper anymore. Anyway, I would/will draft Victorino as my 3rd outfielder. You have to have Victorino on your team this year. I may start a running piece on my love for The Flying Hawaiian. I got lots of love to give.

STARTERS

Adam Wainwright – Look at his splits from last year. Took him three months to recover from that closer experiment and he was on point after the All-Star break. (He burned me in the 1st half of last year too, you gotta give him another chance.)

Manny Parra – You want this year’s Yovani? Parra will make everyone’s list next year. You get him this year, especially in keepers.

Zach Greinke –  If  he takes his mental health pills every day, he could be a force this year. Could the Royals be this year Brewers? Perhaps, Ms. Cleo.

CLOSERS

Carlos Marmol – He’s dealing and the Cubs (specifically Lou) want to win.

Joey Devine – I’m not convinced Devine won’t lay a turd baby at any moment, but Huston’s either moving on or getting injured.

Jeremy Accardo – If BJ’s hurting at any point in Spring Training, Accardo’s not a sleeper. You draft him like he’s your number two closer.

Aaron Heilman — Sorry, Mets fans, Wagner got old last year. Heilman gets at least fifteen saves this year. Act accordingly.

Al Reyes – Why doesn’t someone book a cruise for Grudzielanek and Percival? I blame the Rays.

Last name that I want to highlight:

Scott Baker – I haven’t seen much buzz about this dude, so I figured I’d drop him in at the end. I have nothing to say, except in 143.2 innings his K/BB was 102/29. Read those numbers one more time. Now he’s not ringing up 200 Ks this year, but that strikeout to walk ratio is a magical first step to finding value where others may not see it.

Take Alex Rodriguez with your first pick. He performs half of what you expect from him and you’re pissed, but it won’t lose you your league. Take Nomar with your last pick and he gives you nothing. Also, you may not lose your league. Take Alberto Callaspo with your last pick and he gives you tenth round numbers. This is how a winning fantasy baseball team is born. Let’s look at some deep sleepers for 2008. But if you take one of these guys before the last round of your draft; you’re not paying attention. These are deep sleepers. Last round only.

Joey Devine – Why is Huston Street still on the A’s? The question will probably be dated by May. The A’s just auctioned off Billy Beane’s parking spot for $40/month and a bag of buttered popcorn. Do you really think Street’s making it to Opening Day with the A’s? The Brewers are lining up candidates to fill in for Gagne post-injury. Why not Street? Why not the Cubs? Why not the Rangers? Street will be somewhere; it’s not going to be with the A’s. So Devine steps in and gets a few saves. I don’t like Devine cause I’m still smarting from two years ago when he gave up, like, 6 runs in 1/3 of an inning, but someone’s got to get the A’s saves.

Manny Parra – You missed Yovani Gallardo? Manny’s a lefty with some nasty stuff. He struck out 26 in only 26 innings last year while averaging a K and inning in the minors. This year Ben Sheets gets (SPOILER ALERT!) injured and Parra steps in and mows down hitters the first time through the league. You’re welcome.

Matt Diaz – Slot him in against lefties. The man can rake(.356 over 188 ABs). If by some divine miracle, Cox figures out he’s not that bad even against righties (.318 over 170 ABs), you’re money.

Jeremy Accardo – Caveat, only draft Accardo in the final round if BJ Ryan starts the season as the Jays closer. BJ suffers a setback in spring training or if Accardo opens the season as the closer, draft Accardo earlier then the final round. Basically, I’m saying Accardo will pick up plenty of saves even if Ryan is supposedly ready to close.

Alberto Callaspo – The aforementioned Callaspo has a chance for some playing time. At second base, he’s got to battle Grudzielanek (retire already!) and at short Tony Pena Jr. (you’re embarrassing your father!). Callapso has a great eye and good speed. The Royals could be this year’s ‘07 Brewers (which in the AL Central means a fourth place finish).

There will be more sleepers to come.