Fantasy Baseball Advice

How about them White Sox?!  Yeah, they chucked in the pale towel sometime between Ozzie Guillen’s Monday outburst and Ozzie Guillen’s Tuesday outburst of this week.  One of the pieces them grabbed that was hailed by many as being a stroke of genius was Jake Peavy.  Yeah, the Padres actually made a good trade there as Peavy struggles with an elbow injury.  Another piece, Alex Rios.  I think even Jessica Shaw would concur Rios is so fifteen minutes ago. He’s batting a cool .156 for the Sox with one homer and one steal.  Those stats are also known as Less Than What Drew Stubbs Did Any Day This Week.  You drafted Rios pretty high, I’m sure.  It didn’t work out.  Holding him is compounding your mistake. Anyway, here’s so other players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Brad Penny – For Christmas, I want a Official Red Ryder Carbine-Action Two-Hundred-Shot Range Model Air Rifle!  But I’ll settle for pitching in the NL.

Barry Zito – No, anyone but Zito! Has a 1.92 ERA since the ASB.  But please keep in mind his last blow out was a 4 1/3 IP, 9 ER game vs. the Padres.  So at any time, at any place he could say to you he just ran over your dog, Arfer Woofruff.

Brian Duensing/Jeff Manship – Why doesn’t Manship give his name a LaRoche-type flair?  A’la ManShip.  Much better, right?  Then DuenSing… Well, that kinda looks like an Asian prison name.  These guys may burn you like chlamydia, but if you need to take match-up chances with AL pitchers, I’d take them here.

Buster Posey – This is more about keepers.  Not girls that can tell you Carney Lansford’s career batting average.  Fantasy baseball keepers.

Wade Davis – Same as above.  Go ahead, shift your eyes up.  Too lazy?  Okay.  I’d only go after Davis in keepers.  Or, of course, AL-Only leagues.

Tim Hudson – 5 IP, 2 ER.  (<–Probable pitching line)  Act like you know, MC Lyte.

Franklin Morales – Huston Street’s MIA for a few days, giving way to Morales.

Phil Hughes – If Mariano has to miss time to prep for the playoffs, Hughes would probably get the majority of the saves.

Juan Gutierrez – SAGNOF!  I’d even grab Zavada and Vasquez in leagues where I’m really hurting for saves.

Brett Myers – I see Myers getting up to 3 saves in September, so think about how bad you need those 3 saves.

Brandon Allen – Strictly for power and in deep leagues.  He hit two homers in the last week and a third was robbed by Andre Ethier’s Mom’s son.

Casey McGehee – 3 HRs and 9 RBIs in the last four games.  Unfortunately, he doesn’t steal any bases, but if you need MI pop, there ya go.

Felix Pie – I’ve mentioned him so much in the last few days, I got Pee-ay coming out my ears.  If you haven’t heard me mention him, where ya been?  Vacay?  That’s nice.  Hope you SPF’d the proper areas.  Skin damage is only cool when you’re under 25.

Andy Marte – Loving me some Marte in some leagues.  Why, Grey?  Do tell, you *pinkie to mouth* Smarte. Sure, random italicized voice.  3 homers in the last 7 games for Marte.  Added bonus:  No relation to Damaso.

Yunel Escobar – Batting near .400 in the last week with two homers.  He goes hot to cold quickly, so grab him no or forever hold your peace.  Or piece, if you’re gangsta.

Michael Brantley – My ‘pert radar is telling me Sizemore’s not long for this season.  Brantley’s got speed.  SAGNOF!

Drew Stubbs – He should only be steals, but he’s been showing power.  The power will stop, the Ks and steals will begin.  Any day now, Annie Potts.

Rajai Davis – He’s only listed here because he’s owned in less than 30% of ESPN leagues.  Why is he owned in less than 30% of ESPN leagues?!  Seriously.  He had 15 steals in August and he’s batting near .400 in the last week.

Matt Diaz – It’s Dye-as.  Lefty killer.  Lately, slaughtering both sides.  Anyone who’s read this site for a long time knows that I’ve always liked Diaz as a platoon outfielder. (Play him against his strong side, sit vs. weak side.  Kinda like I’ve been doing with David Murphy and The Big FraGu in one league.)  Really Diaz should be in your lineup vs. everyone until further notice.

SELL

Homer Bailey – Love to be the bearer of good news, but I don’t have any good news for you.  I have bad news.  Bad, unfortunate, sad news.  Bailey has three solid starts in a row, but two were against the Pirates.  If you have to take chances, I kinda understand it.  But Bailey gets the Rockies then the Cubs.  Don’t mind if I don’t.

Brian Matusz/Chris Tillman – Headed for Camp Shutdown.

Kyle Davies – Has back-to-back wins that have netted him a 2.25 ERA and 11 Ks in 12 innings.  Sounds nice, right?  One was vs. the A’s and one was against the M’s.

Adam Jones – Jones is done-zo.

Josh Willingham – Lately, he looks likes the one-tool outfielder he’s always been.

When doctors said Aaron Harang is going to have a useless part of his body removed, everyone in the Reds clubhouse thought the same thing, “What is Willy Taveras doing in Harang’s body?”  If Dusty were a doctor, he would left Harang’s appendix in a few more innings.  The appendectomy will force Harang to the DL for the rest of the season.  Too bad, the Reds just traded for Rolen and things were really starting to come together.  Feel free to cut Harang.  He’s done-zo.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Chris Dickerson – Headed to the DL with a whatever-you-don’t-care.  What you do care about, the Reds might call up Chris Heisey.  He’ll be talked about in the afternoon post where I break down the potential September call-ups.

Adam Jones – He hurt his back while swinging the bat.  He’s been terrible so far in August and now it sounds like he’ll be missing a few games at least.  Cue an awkward dancing Michael Douglas, Kathleen Turner and Danny Devito and turn on the Billy Ocean…

Scott Downs – Returns from the DL on Monday.  Will he be the closer?  Here’s what Gaston said, “I’m not sure about closing. I’m not sure about that. We’ll see how it goes. If he got here tomorrow and I said we’re going to stick him in the closer’s spot right away, I’m not sure if that’s fair to him either.”  That is both wishy and washy.

Mark Reynolds – DNP with a 100-degree temperature.  Get well soon, Mini Donkey!

Carlos Gonzalez – Out for up to a week after he cut his hand while cutting a piece of steak.  Can’t they get Spilborghs to cut up his meat for him?  After Barmes’s vension accident a few years ago, maybe the Rockies should go vegetarian during the summer months.  Or only use chopsticks.  Crab rangoon is delicious!

Seth Smith – With CarGo’s inability to handle a knife, Smith might see some short term time.  He also has 2 homers in the last three games.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 8 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks.  If you owned only Rockie pitchers, you’d probably be doing better than you are in your leagues.  Zoinks!

Fausto Carmona – 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks.  He’s actually had a full month of decent starts.  Not great, decent.  Check your modifiers, Razzball reader.

Jhonny Peralta – HR yesterday as he bats near .400 over the last week.  Let me pull out my lukewarm endorsement…. If you really need an MI, what the hey?

Matt Diaz – 4-for-4 yesterday.  It’s Dye-as.  Usually only hits lefties, currently hitting everyone.

Pedro Martinez – 6 IP, 4 ER, 5 Ks.  I swear, I keep thinking to myself he’s going 5 IP, 3 ER or 6 IP, 4 ER.  I’m like the quiet psychic.  This Fall on Fox, turn up the volume and watch as he solves mysteries while speaking just above a whisper… Robert Carlyle is The Quiet Psychic.

Angel Pagan – 2 HRs yesterday.  See, there is a reason he was nominated for the Henry Aaron Award!

Jayson Werth – Hit his 29th homer yesterday.  You gotta love when your third outfielder pans out.  I know the feeling, I own Raul Ibanez on a few teams. (Though he’s been cold lately.)  Third outfielders panning out make me horny!  *Awkward silence at Razzball.com*  Did Grey just say third outfielders… Yeah, that’s what I thought.

Ricky Nolasco – 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 12 baserunners.  Here’s the deal, Nolasco.  And I’m gonna break it down to you real simple like Jeff Foxworthy.  One terrible game like the stinker vs. the Astros when you gave up 10 earned runs in just over three innings.  That’s forgivable because you came back and pitched a complete game the next game.  But when you follow that up with another stinker, you become unpredictable and harder to start.  Thanks for listening, Nolasco.  I’m glad we had this talk.

Alcides Escobar – Hit his first homer yesterday.  After he crossed home, I screamed at the TV, “I have guys to hit homers.  Steal a frickin’ base, doode!”

Adam Dunn – Hit his 33rd homer yesterday.  If he doesn’t get to 40, Stephen Hawking will press a button on his Speak & Spell and blow up the Earth.  Just so you know what we’re up against.

Drew Stubbs – He looks so lost at the plate, it’s kinda comical.  Still has speed, will have bumps.

Homer Bailey – 7 IP, 1 ER.  I’m glad he pitched a good game… Actually, I don’t care.  What am I, his hypenate nephew-slash-personal assistant?  No, I’m not.  He gets the Dodgers next.  Blech.

Scott Feldman – 7 IP, 0 ER, 11 Ks.  Easily his best start of the year.  I still can’t get fully behind starting him, but if you need to take some risk, then go for it.

Bud Norris – 1 IP, 6 ER as he roofied his owners.  When thinking about starting a rookie, see Example A:  Norris’s line.

Jake Fox – 4-for-4, HR yesterday.  Can an AL team trade for him this winter?  Please.  I’d like to own him in the fantasy, but non-Biblical way.

Ryan Dempster – 7 IP, 4 baserunners, 0 ER, 5 Ks.  Right side of the brain, Dempster beat the NL-best Dodgers yesterday.  Left side of the brain, Dempster lost to the Padres last time out.  So his next start vs. the Mets is a good thing or a bad thing?  Damn conflicting sides of the brain!

John Smoltz – 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners and 9 Ks vs. Padres.  If only the Red Sox played in Petco…  Smoltz gets the Nats next time out.  I’d roll the dice for another start, then reevaluate.

Jack Cust – 2 HRs yesterday.  Cust is hitting near .500 in the last week with three homers.  Few hitters get as streaky as Cust (though A-Rod comes close right after he gets out of the salon and has his frosted tips done).

Tim Hudson is on track to make a rehab start.  If all goes well, and that if is ginormous, then he can return to the Braves for their failed chase for the Wild Card.  Recovering from Tommy John is usually the same no matter what, shorty.  Pitchers usually return to three-quarters of their former selves or they can become seven-fifths of their former selves, which is to say they can be better.  Though they’re not usually better when they are first reactivated.  They usually return slightly less than three-quarters.  If you’re half as confused by those fractions as I am writing them, let me break it down to you, nice and simple like Minnie Pearl.  Tim Hudson’s worth stashing on your DL for matchups, but the upside is merely usable in 12 team leagues.  Don’t expect miracles.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Scott Baker – 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER.  He shows you some solid starts, then he shits your house.

Michael Cuddyer – 4-for-5, 2 HRs and 19 homers on the year.  The quietest 19 homers anyone has in the majors.  Oh, wait.  Jason Kubel also has 19 homers.  Meanwhile, some schmohawk who’s batting .219 for the Sox is ESPN’s lead story.

Carl Pavano – 7 IP, 0 ER in his debut for the Twins on Saturday.  Still not a huge fan of 4th or 5th fantasy starters from the AL, but Pavano should be slightly better on the Twins.  I wouldn’t pick him up in most leagues, but there might be a situation where it makes sense.

Brian Matusz – 2 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 baserunners as he roofied you. Remember that when you read about Derek Holland’s great start in about three minutes.

Marco Scutaro – HR yesterday as he went 4-for-5. Has 10 homers and 8 steals and a .300 average.  Somewhere Polanco says, “Hey, that’s my season!”

Trent Oeltjen – 3-for-4 and a HR yesterday.  Sometimes it takes a few weeks for pitchers to get the scouting reports on guys.  Worth grabbing The Outback while pitchers try to figure him out.  Keep in mind he looks like he’s sitting vs. lefties.

Yusmeiro Petit/Joel Pineiro – 4 IP, 3 ER, 10 baserunners and 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 Ks and the Win.  Guess there’s only room for one -eiro.

Mark Reynolds – HR yesterday.  For those that don’t own the Mini-Donkey.  He now has 8 homers in the last 10 games.  He’s real and he’s spectacular.

Aaron Cook – Will miss his next start because of turf toe, which would’ve been avoided if God gave us all Nerf toes.

Carlos Gonzalez – 7 for his last 15 as he started every game this weekend for the Rox.  I doubt they start him vs. lefties, but in deep leagues he’s worth a flier.

Tim Stauffer – 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  Solid start, just Johan outpitched him.  I just had a crazy idea, imagine Johan pitched his home games in a stadium as spacious as Petco… Oh, wait.

Eugenio Velez – 2-for-4, after hitting homers in back-to-back games on Friday on Saturday.  No idea how he hit those homers, I’m assuming 120 MPH winds were blowing out and they let Velez hit from 2nd base.  Either way, he’s batting .400 over the last seven games.  He’s really just steals, but while he’s hot he’s worth a flier.

David Weathers – Heads to the Brewers.  Now the Brewers have Tackleberry (Weathers), Guttenberg (Braun) and Hooks (Fielder).

Felipe Lopez – 1-for-3, batting .303 on the season with 6 homers and 6 steals.  Marco Scutaro just looked at those numbers and yawned.  Steal a base, Lopez!  Hit a homer!  Do something!

Russell Branyan – HR yesterday as I sat him because he was facing a lefty.  Sonavabench!

Matt Diaz – HR yesterday vs. a lefty and batting .350 on the year vs. lefties.  If you have the room, Diaz do what he do vs. lefties.

Derek Holland – Complete game shutout, 8 Ks.  Go back and look at Matusz’s line if you’ve forgotten.

Garrett Jones – 1-for-4, you have three games in Coors to hit a homer then we’re done-zo.

Jed Lowrie – Headed to the DL.  In other news, Julio Lugo’s batting .345 for the Cards.

Alexei Ramirez – HR yesterday.  Let’s put it this way, I’m not dropping Alexei (though I might in mid-September when anything goes), but Alexei has a long way to go before he falls into that category of guys I won’t draft on any team next year.

Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 0 ER.  Honestly, even when I said everyone should draft him in February, I had no idea the Wandwagon could roll like this.

Scott Kazmir – What a fucker.

Rajai Davis – 2 steals yesterday.  If you need steals, SAGNOF!

Bobby Crosby – 2 HRs yesterday.  Elias Sports Bureau said these two homers by Bobby Crosby were the most by any player that you thought was no longer in the league.  Actually, they did not say that.  But overheard this week at the Elias Sports Bureau offices, “For the first time since last year, Ralph in Human Resources tried to fool Parking Enforcement with a homemade handicapped sign.”

Vernon Wells was primed for his ‘every 3rd year’ routine, but now he’s strained the same hamstring he hurt last year that caused him to miss 50+ games.  Word out of Blue Jay camp is he’ll miss at least 4 weeks.  A broken-down VW isn’t going to help your team go anywhere.  Just forget about the 30/100/.300/10 guy and think of him as that 20/80/.270/5 guy.  Hate to say it, but he’s a lot closer to Aaron Rowand than an elite fantasy OF.  The best thing to come out of Vernon’s hammy injury is Adam Lind and Travis Snider could see more time.  Anyway, here’s some other things going on during spring training that effect 2009 fantasy baseball:

Garrett Anderson – GA signed with the Braves.  This does nothing for his value.  And prior to this, he had no value.  You do the math!

Orlando Hudson – Joyce DeWitt was so proud when I anointed her son a 2009 fantasy sleeper.  Oh, well.  She’ll always have the hand she played in inventing Jiggle TV.  (And it wasn’t a hand — wokka, wokka, wokka…)  Orlando Hudson’s picture is next to the definition of yawnstipating.  You should not be drafting him in any leagues.

Blake DeWitt – His value is now K to the aput.

Nyjer Morgan – Sounds like he’ll be opening day left fielder.  Stay tuned because he could be a cheap source of steals.  SAGNOF!

Chase Utley – He’s already taking batting practice.  I think he’s the Phillies starting 2nd baseman when they take the field for their first game of the season, with him and Hamels sharing hair gel.  Does the hip effect his speed?  He steals 10 instead of 15.  I’m just hoping my drafts happen soon so I can get Utley at a discount.  You should be hoping the same thing.

Melvin Mora – He said he’s going to put up “.340, 20-plus (home runs) and 100-plus (RBIs).”  Otherwise known as Bill James’s projections for Chris Davis.

Here we are at the last of the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings before we get to the top 300 for 2009 fantasy baseball.  Some of these top 80 outfielders are really only worth owning in deep leagues or NL- or AL-Only leagues.  But in those leagues, they could make a big difference and could become fantasy relevant in more shallow leagues.  I probably won’t have a lot of these guys on any of my 12 team league teams, because I like to shore up OF earlier than these guys would be drafted, but that’s not to say I have no love for them.  Oh, I do.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball:

61. Adam Lind – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here to Hermida.  I call this tier, “Worth taking a shot on these guys very late.”  By the end of the year, Lind could be worth owning in all leagues.  That’s no idle compliment.  Man, you really know how to make a beanbag your own. That’s an idle compliment.  2009 Projections:  65/22/85/.275/3

62. Ryan Spilborghs – Spilborghs falls into the same camp as Denard Span for me.  I like him, but I kinda wish he’d fall down a staircase with sixty pounds of deer meat and open a spot for Fowler or Gonzalez.  The Rox are saying Spilborghs might be batting leadoff.  I’ve that’s true, it makes me almost as excited as Paula Abdul on any given Tuesday or Wednesday.  2009 Projections:  55/12/65/.300/12

63. Franklin Gutierrez – I’m a fan of The Big FraGu.  Decent shot at being a cheap source of 15/15.  Though he will hurt you a bit in average.  2009 Projections:  70/12/75/.260/16

64. Chase Headley – If he was playing anywhere but Petco, you would’ve already read numerous articles on him.  Definitely worth a real late flier in mixed leagues.  2009 Projections: 70/20/80/.280/8

65. Chris Dickerson – I loved Dickerson last year when he first came up.  I still do.  Temper expectations because Dusty does crazy things and Dickerson was playing a bit over his head batting average-wise in limited time last year.  2009 Projections:  55/15/50/.250/15

66. Michael Bourn – SAGNOF. 2009 Projections:  70/4/30/.240/40

67. Matt Joyce – Besides sounding like a 19^th Century poet, he could be this year’s Ludwick, who happens to sound like an 18^th Century composer.  It’s the classics!  2009 Projections:  70/22/85/.250

68. David Murphy/Marlon Byrd – Those in daily leagues could use these two as a righty/lefty platoon.  You “pfft” at me now, but together they could go… 2009 Combined Projections:  100/20/100/.285/10

69. Wladimir Balentien – Very similar to Matt Joyce on power potential with some speed, but he’s more raw.  Not to mention, Wladimir Balentien sounds like a cast member on The Real World:  Transylvania.  Wladdy B. always lets the dishes pile up in the sink! 2009 Projections:  60/22/65/.250/5

70. Travis Snider – Very young and raw, but there is some sweet, sweet upside here.  I already went over him in a Travis Snider 2009 fantasy outlook post.  2009 Projections:  50/12/60/.275

71. Chris Duncan – Plagued by back troubles because of years of getting high-fived by his brother, Shelley.  If healthy, Duncan might be worthwhile to platoon against righties.  2009 Projections:  55/17/60/.255/4

72. Matt Diaz – If you’re in daily leagues and you’re hurting at an OF spot, you should be platooning Diaz in when he faces lefties.  A fantasy platoon of him and Duncan could prove fruitful.  Or not.  These really are your choices.  2009 Projections:  45/10/50/.315/5

73. Jeremy Hermida – His prospect status was derailed by injuries.  If he can get back on track, he might be a sleeper.  Though there’s been absolutely no sign of him getting back on track.  2009 Projections:  70/20/70/.255/7

74. Jose Guillen – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Byrnes.  I call this tier, “Pass on these guys.”  There’s no point in grabbing one of these outfielders.  They’ll be on waivers at some point anyway.  If you’re choosing an outfielder this late in the draft, you may as well grab one that has upside.  Chances are the upside may not pan out, but if it does it could pay huge dividends.  These aging vets aren’t going to win you a league.  As for Guillen, only draft him if pouting is a category.  2009 Projections:  60/18/80/.265

75. Ty Wigginton – He had a really solid two months last year.  Do you remember where he was when he started on that two month tirade?  On waivers.  If you draft him, he’ll be there again.  2009 Projections:  60/20/65/.270

76. Aaron Rowand – I don’t want him in a 20 team league that uses only San Francisco Giants.  2009 Projections:  75/14/70/.265/6

77. Ryan Church – In his breakout pre-concussion season, he hit 12 HRs and batted .276.  C’mon, yawn with me.  2009 Projections:  60/14/65/.255/3

78. Eric Byrnes – He used his speed for a lot of his value and now he’s older and coming off leg injuries.  Bleh!  2009 Projections:  60/12/50/.255/12

79. Felix Pie – This is a the last tier.  This tier goes from here to the end of the list.  I call this tier, “Fliers.”  Pie has done nothing to warrant this ranking, but, as I’ve said numerous times, when you’re this deep into a position, you take a flier.  Pee-ay is just that.  2009 Projections:  65/7/40/.250/20

80. Ben Francisco – He hit 15 HRs and stole 4 bases in 447 ABs last year, which sounds yawnstipating at best, until you realize he should be stealing 15 to 20 bags.  He might surprise with a 15/15 season.  2009 Projections:  70/17/70/.260/10 (<– fairly optimistic, but whatevs)

After the top 80 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but here’s two that stand out:

Carlos Gonzalez – Went over Car-Gonz when Holliday was shipped to the A’s.  In keeper leagues, I’d drop a buck to get him.  2009 Projections:  40/7/45/.260/10

Steve Pearce – On any team but the Pirates, I think he sees a lot of time.  It’s not that the Pirates are stacked.  They just make curious decisions… Rinku and Dinesh curious.  2009 Projections:  55/14/65/7/.260 (<– fairly optimistic, but whatevs)