I’ll be honest, picking a creeper early in the year is not an easy task. We have small sample sizes to work with, players under performing and pitchers very hard to predict. I ask myself every week as I prepare these: what angle can I find to make a call? What is a constant that doesn’t change? Where are my pants? Well, the third question is nearly impossible to answer because it’s like trying to figure out where Jimmy Hoffa is buried. The other two are things we always look for, regardless of what point of the season we are at, are park factors, lefty/righty match-ups, Schmotatoness, and batter vs. pitcher history. For example, this week, Brad Miller plays six games and for five of them, he faces right-handers. On the year, he bats .348 against RHP (good thing), but among the five he faces this week, he bats .191 against (not so good), and Hitter-Tron (-$2.5) says he won’t be any good. I’ll pass too. That’s a little snapshot into my process.  This week, I’m going for Schomtatoness and park factors to make my call. Would you like to hear more? Oh c’mon, I’ll give you some Arby’s coupons? Dairy Queen? Fine, then skip to the top 100 and we can fight about that in the comments instead.

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Imagine Gangsta Gangsta’s Ice Cube singing, “With a right left, right left you toothless, and then you say goddamn they ruthless,” but not coming out of Ice Cube’s mouth, but out of Glass Joe’s mouth from Mike Tyson’s Punch Out. Imagine Mola Ram reaching into a chest and ripping out a heart. Only instead of Mola Ram, it’s Arvid from Head of the Class. Imagine the head Neo-Nazi from Oz, walking into your shower, only instead of him it’s the guy from the Farmers Insurance commercials…Oh, wait, that’s the same guy. Those were the sort of visions Chris Sale must’ve been having when he looked at the Twins. We see nerds, he sees Ice Mola Cube Ram Nazis. The Twins scored eight runs on him in three innings and, without looking at a box score, you can’t even imagine who did that damage. Brian Dozier? Yeah, he went 2-for-5, 2 runs, 4 RBIs and his 2nd homer. Joe Mauer? Yup, he went 3-for-5, 1 run, 2 RBIs. Eduardo Escobar? Okay, now you’re cheating. You would’ve never guessed Eduardo Escobar. Up until two seconds ago, you thought Eduardo Escobar was Pablo’s peacenik brother. Sale’s ERA is up to 5.32, but that’s almost entirely due to last night. If his owner is panicked, I’d look for a little sale on, um, well, you know. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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I’ve heard many a person say something along the lines of “Daily fantasy baseball is such a crap shoot, it’s such a small sample, there’s no way you can win”. To these negative Nellys I say, “must be the money”. No wait, that wasn’t it, “it’s getting hot in herre”. Nope, oh right, here it is, I present them with the old poker counter argument, why then are the same people at the top of the leaderboards on a routine basis? Just like with poker, if it’s all luck, why do the same players routinely make final tables? Is there luck involved? Of course! But I will argue over and over that if you have a good process, you’ll be a winner in the long run. This is where the importance of bankroll management comes into play. You have to manage well enough that you can allow yourself time to be sure your process is a good one without going broke. A week long losing streak will happen and it sucks, but it doesn’t prove your process is bad. A general tip is to use 5-10% of your bankroll a night. In addition, don’t blow that 10% on GPPs. Just like with the stock market, you have to diversify. If you stick to 10% and play generally low risk options while sprinkling in the occasional GPP and you go broke, then I’d say it’s time to reevaluate your strategy and player evaluation methods. However, if your process is sound and your bankroll management and game choices are smart, you’ll be a winner over the course of the season. Will it be a grind? Yes. Will it be glamorous and you’ll win a hundred grand your first week? Doubtful. You just gotta have the heart of a champion. Now, let’s shake ya tailfeather down below to some player picks for today’s slate.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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Never once did I think I would be writing about a creeper older than I am, and yet here I am, talking about Torii Hunter. Being the ageless wonder (or is it the wonder of agelessness, I’m not really sure), he still suits up every day and goes out and plays. I was racking my brain for some kind of analogy for the creeper and I found my inspiration from the Paleolithic 80’s flick Quest for Fire, for like this movie, we are just a bunch of uncivilized men searching for a player to catch fire. So why not a Hunter? Haha…get it? Okay, I’ll stop with the bad jokes. Hey, at least I didn’t do Caveman with Ringo Starr. Come to think of it, Hunter could be considered the Twins Ringo. Doesn’t really matter if he’s there or not. Oh well, the moment has passed and now we move on to why we are here…

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I hate bloop singles. I despise watching my pitcher give up a run because a guy got jammed up inside and sent it between first base and left field. It doesn’t even feel right when my guy who is 0-3 on the day (trust me, this happens often) drops one between the infielders and outfielders on a lucky blooper. Sometimes though, it takes a blooper or 2 to have success… Like my 2 RBI bloop single in my slow pitch softball league the other night, but we won’t talk about that. What we do need to talk about though, is Lorenzo Cain. This guy is a stud. I wouldn’t doubt that he would be good at whatever sport he attempts because he is such an athlete. He now finally gets away from all these pitchers parks and gets a sweet matchup at US Cellular. Oh… and he’s getting on base at a rate of .479 on the young season and driving the ball extremely well. I look forward to rostering him today.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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This week I’m making a little one-week tweak to the Creeper of the Week and going with Creepers because we have something that doesn’t always happen. What is that Big J? Well eager reader, it’s a seven-game Monday-through-Sunday home series for the Rockies. By my count, this will only happen three times this season. The hard part was finding an under-owned player not taken on the Rockies playing everyday, and it’s so barren right now that even the French DJ is over-owned to qualify for this post. Hey there French DJ can you drop me a cut for this creeper post? Very nice, old school, but isn’t that a little too obvious? I get it, you are on the 1’s and 2’s, so the choice is yours. Can I at least get one cut with a baseball name in the title? What’s that? You don’t do requests? Sheesh, that Charlie Blackmon ego is rubbing off on your euro sensibilities. Forget about it, let’s move on to the reason we are here.

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The season is here baby!  Well, that’s kinda old news at this point, but I’m pumped for the first Pitcher Profile of 2015!

Every Monday this season, we’ll be breaking down fringy mixed-league starters (usually) to get a better gauge on their value and if they’re worthy of a valuable roster spot.  And I certainly like suggestions!  Add into the comments a pitcher that’s projected to start next weekend and I very well might end up Profiling them.  Wait, not like that!

Now to our debut this year, and I’ve just never really known what to make of Carlos Martinez.  Power stuff, destroys righties, but left-handed batters have crushed him.  I had Martinez 74 in my original ranks amongst SP,  but dropped him out in my re-ranks as he was heading to the bullpen.  Then Jaime Garcia blew out his 5th or 6th shoulder – I’ve lost count – so it’s back into the starting five, Carlos!  Made him as excited as I was when I stumbled upon his Twitter a few years ago…

So I decided to tune into his 2015 debut as a starter (he threw an inning of relief on opening night last Sunday), and break down how he looked against the Reds pitch-by-pitch:

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I recently went on a cruise. Now if you have ever been on one, you know there are way too many things to do, way too much to eat, and way too little space in your room. If you have not been, here is how a typical day goes. You wake up and bump into the wall getting out of bed. Next, look at the schedule written in probably 2 point font because they put 8 million bits of information on it. You’ll probably be hungry by now, no matter what time of day it is, so you decide to go to the buffet. Now on this buffet is anything you could ever imagine… well if you can imagine every TV dinner at Wal-Mart already cooked for you. Don’t get me wrong, there are some good things to eat on this buffet, it’s just hard to tell what they are because it’s just not appealing to the eye. Today’s pitching slate is one gigantic cruise buffet. There are so many unappealing options, but there has to be something good buried beneath the mess. Let’s take a look:

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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Playing in an OBP league not only takes into account more of the players overall performance, it can also help you get a couple of steals on draft day. I took a look at third base and singled out a few players to target and one to pass over that others in your league may be sleeping on…

Looking at the top-5 in OBP last year, we end up with Adrian Beltre (.388), Matt Carpenter (.375), Carlos Santana (.365), Casey McGehee (.355), and Anthony Rendon (.351). No surprise that at number one, is the top ranked third baseman going into 2015, and Rendon is going in the top-20 overall in most leagues, however the others are a bit more surprising. No one is taking Casey McGehee in the top-20 at third base in any league, and no one should, but it’s interesting to see him so high on the list.  Looking past him, we have a couple of guys that are pretty well known to be more valuable in OBP leagues: Carpenter and Santana. Each brings a different skill set to the table, but have significantly more value in an OBP league vs. standard, and if your league is a new to OBP, you should be able to get both at a bargain. Here are a few stand outs that I am targeting in any OBP league.

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Third base was far from an epic fail like something JayWrong would have a GIF for. There were a good ten 3rd basemen and another handful that could’ve covered your corner infidel slot. The problem is after the top twelve, the 3rd basemen fall off the map like a 12th century explorer. Here’s you, “Hey, I’m gonna go to India heading west.” You’re whistling, everything is good, then you have Trevor Plouffe in your corner infidel slot and you’re dead from scurvy. This year there were fewer 3rd basemen coming out of nowhere to give you value, so if you didn’t have a top guy, you were probably stuck piecing together waiver scraps. This final ranking is from our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater with my comments. The Player Rater allows me to be impartial while looking at how I ranked them in the preseason. I look forward to the random comment about how I’ve left off so-and-so. This is not for next year. Lisa Simpson groan. Oh, they’re not reading this intro. Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2014 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

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