Fantasy Baseball Advice

To come up with the 20 biggest draft busts — pitcher’s edition! — I used Rudy Gamble’s fantasy baseball player rater. Some of the schmohawkiest pitchers, like Carlos Silva, I left off. Not because he was better than expected, but because he was as expected. That’s not a bust. This is similar to Tim Gunn’s monkey house analogy that goes something like this, “If you visit the monkey house, it smells like crap. If you live in the monkey house, it no longer smells like crap.” In each entry of the 20 biggest draft busts of 2008, you’ll find the Average Draft Position (ADP) and the Forget the Plunger, Call the Plumber (FPCP) metric, which I made up to illustrate how badly some of these fantasy baseball pitchers shat your proverbial house. Anyway, here’s the 20 biggest draft busts of 2008, the pitchers:

20. Daniel Cabrera - No, this is the year for the breakout! No, wait… I mean, next year!… Or 2010! Yes, definitely by 2010. ADP, 329 — FPCP, 1.3

19. Matt Cain - His numbers are actually close to what I was worried Lincecum would do. Good Ks, decent ERA but an 8-14 record. ADP, 131 — FPCP, 2.1

18. Jeremy Bonderman - Frankly, I don’t know anyone that drafted him, so maybe he doesn’t deserve to be on this list. Then again, he has an average draft position of 169 so someone drafted him. Hmm… Maybe fantasy baseball is really popular in Michigan and these numbers are skewed by Tigers fans. I’ll need a statistician with lots of free time to figure this out. Email me at totallyeffinbored [at] razzball.com. ADP, 169 — FPCP, 2.5

17. Josh Beckett - Not really an awful year, but you wanted more than a 12-10 record. This is the problem with Wins. “When I say no rhyme, you say no reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” ADP, 44 — FPCP, 3.7

16. Carlos Zambrano - 130 Ks in almost 190 innings is a major problem. Another problem, never knowing if you were going to get “Thanks for the no-hitter, Big Z!” or “Z just soiled my team’s linens.” ADP, 66 — FPCP, 4.9

15. Johnny Cueto - Hey, it’s the wunderkind! Hey, wunderkind, how are ya doing? Say hello to ya mother for me. Undrafted according to Mock Draft Central, but you know you drafted him. FPCP, 5.5

14. John Maine - I had high (big) apple pie in the sky hopes for this schmohawk. He gave you some stretches where he was decent. Other times, he gave you stretch marks on your ulcer. ADP, 133 — FPCP, 6.2

13. Jeff Francis - Luckily for fantasy baseballers (<–that sounds like something my Mom would say), Jeff Francis pitches at Coors so it makes dropping him feel much easier. ADP, 152 — FPCP, 6.9

12. J.J. Putz/Chad Cordero - This was supposed to be for just starters, but, well, these closers busted. Why did I put them at 12? Cause it’s my list. ADP, High — FPCP, 7.4

11. Francisco Liriano - What, you drafted him in March for six solid starts in August? Yeah, a’ight. ADP, 112 — FPCP, 9.1

10. Pedro Martinez - Watching Pedro this year, Nelson de la Rosa rolled over in his shoe box. ADP, 160 — FPCP, 9.5

9. Yovani Gallardo - At least he had the decency to go down early in the year. It still hurt watching him grab his knee like he was just put in the Figure Four Leg Lock. ADP, 135 — FPCP, 10.1

8. Ian Snell - He was supposed to be a hidden gem at the end of the draft. Instead, he was the backwash at the end of a draft beer. ADP, 154 — FPCP, 10.3

7. Chien-Ming Wang - If you drafted Wang, his injury was a blow. And that’s the only time it’s upsetting to see “blow” and “Wang” in the same sentence. ADP, 146 — FPCP, 11.2

6. Rich Hill - Right now Rich Hill is reenacting spring training using vegetables, and whenever Sweet Lou Potato tells him he’s going to the minors, he mashes him. Or not! ADP, 113 — FPCP, 12.1

5. John Smoltz - Sadly, this might be the last we see of him. Hey, I just got schmaltzy for Smoltzy. (<–alliteration in lieu of wit) ADP, 82 — FPCP, 13.9

4. Fausto Carmona - When Sabathia stood up from the Indians seesaw, Carmona fell and never recovered. ADP, 106 — FPCP, 15.6

3. Erik Bedard - It could’ve been worse. He could’ve been healthy and terrible. BTW, I picked Bedard to win the AL Cy Young. See Verlander, Justin. ADP, 39 — FPCP, 17.1

2. Aaron Harang - Instead of 184.1 innings of a 4.78 ERA with a 6-17 record, Harang should’ve put a sweaty glass down on my Reggie Jackson rookie card while recording a sex tape with my girlfriend. ADP, 72 — FPCP, 19.5

1. Justin Verlander - 200 innings of suck?! For crimey’s sake, man. Help a brother out — get injured! Take a knee! Something! BTW II, Rudy picked Verlander to win the AL Cy Young. Ladies and gentlemen, your Razzball ‘perts! ADP, 62 — FPCP, 19.7

James ‘Dr. Freeze’ Andrews - bah!  Not when Canada’s finest caribou and shoulder surgeon can do it on the Canadian dime (worth $.09). Erik Bedard will go under the knife for what they are calling exploratory surgery. How appropriate for a pitcher that shares his name with a Viking. Hopefully, it turns out as well as Carlos Silva’s trip to the doctor when his rectal bleeding was diagnosed as his body repelling the massive amounts of salsa he’s eaten throughout the season. Stay tuned, this surgery could effect Bedard’s 2009. The USS Mariner has already sunk, and now they have to start worrying about next year being lost to sea. Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Chris Volstad - 8 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER. The Astros quadrupled their hit total of the last two games. Zoinks!

Asdrubal Cabrera - HR yesterday. Since I told you to pickup Asdrubal, he continues to be productive.

Josh Beckett - Red State Jeter threw eight innings of three hit baseball against the Rays. Encouraging sign going forward or he just likes facing the Rays? You make the call!

Shaun Marcum - Left the start with forearm numbness. Drop him. He’s done.

Fernando Tatis - Done for the year with a separated shoulder. Right now his mom must be a praying Tatis — oofa!

Ryan Shealy - Don’t skim past this name. HR yesterday and… I see you skimming. Stop! He has five home runs in the last four games. Ride the hot streak.

CC Sabathia/Prince Fielder - CC finally got his first loss.  Fielder finally is on a roll again hitting 2 HRs.  Can’t you see - it’s a see-saw.  Only one can be high at a time.

Fernando Rodney - Blew a 2 run-lead in the 9th without registering an out.  It’s become so commonplace for him to blow saves that we call Kazaam whenever he comes in.  Because if he’s pitching, it’s automatically going to be a non-save situation for the Tigers.

Todd Jones - We miss you.

Dan Haren - Nothing like pitching against SF to right the ship.  9 IP, 0 ER, 12 Ks.  The Giant offense is the equivalent of a rebound fuck….

Matt Cain - 7 IP, 7 Ks, 2 ER. After struggling for a little over a month, just needed to face the Diamondbacks to look decent. Still wouldn’t trust him going forward.

James Parr - 4 1/3 innings, 4 earned runs and 10 hits as Parr hit a bogey.

Brandon Morrow - 4 IP, 6 ER. What frustrates me further, I told everyone not to go near him when he returned. Then he threw a great game against the Yankees and seemed to be properly stretched out. Surprise, he’s not.

Derek Lowe - Since an awful May, he’s been amazing.  127 IP, 11 W, 2.90 ERA, 1.02 WHIP.  With his sinker working so well, Torre was tempted to call him White Wang, but that name’s already taken by someone in nearby San Fernando Valley.

There’s probably more relevant fantasy baseball stories that could’ve been the lead for today’s post, but guess what? I love me some suffering of others. Honestly, I would’ve named the site schadenfreude-ball.com, but I thought that would cause this blog to be a hotbed of lederhosen pictures and Wiener schnitzel recipes. (Personally, I have no problem with either, but when Google indexes you, it’s important you are in no way connected to lederhosen or Wiener schnitzel. I believe it goes back to the Potsdam Conference. BTW, for those history buffs out there, I got a kick out of this in Wikipedia, “In March 1945, Finland declares war on Germany.” In case anyone doesn’t follow, Hitler killed himself in April 1945. Way to step up, Finland. They’re like the defensive replacement that comes into the ninth inning of game seven of a championship game. They get to celebrate, but you know they didn’t do anything. Finland is Doug Mientkiewicz. But I digress.) So, with The Love Guru bombing and Brett sent down, July 2008 was a bad month to be a Myers. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Matt Cain - Okay, full disclosure. I have Matt Cain on one of my teams and he’s been sitting on the bench for a majority of the season, but I’m holding him because I think he can be better. Yesterday, he was better. 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 10 Ks.

Chipper Jones - Avoided the DL. Yesterday I said, it looked like Chipper was headed to the DL. I didn’t Celebracadabra this shizz out of thin air. Manager Bobby Cox said he was shocked Jones didn’t hit the DL. Honestly, if you’re in Reno and there’s even odds for Chipper going on the DL, you double down. And don’t forget to tip your waitresses.

Troy Percival - Back to the DL and it wasn’t Wheeler last night for the save… It was Balfour! True, what? I am a True Fushnick! It’s fantasy baseball that I kick. But it was Balfour because Wheeler had gone three days in a row. Wheeler will get the majority of the saves going forward. You want a limb? How’s this — Wheeler gets more saves than Percival in the 2nd half.

Jeff Kent - HR last night. Why can’t he get more home runs in the 2nd half than he got in the first? Cause he’s 40. Well, yeah, but I think he’s too stubborn to totally suck. He has nine home runs right now. I think he gets 12 more. Wow, 12 more! Can I drop Ryan Howard now?! Well, ain’t you smart. Kinsler/Phillips both only had 13 in the 1st half. So 12’s something.

John Danks - 8 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks, he reminds me of a manadrin orange. It looks all weird and shizz, but when you taste it, it tastes fine. That’s Danks. You look at him and his name looks all weird and you don’t trust him then you start him and he’s fine.

Aaron Cook - Double A *beep beep* C-O-O-K. Okay, more disclosure, I’ve had him on a team for two months now. That’s two months longer than I ever thought I’d have Aaron Cook on a team. Whatevs. For a fourth starter on a fantasy team, you can do a lot worse. *cough* Pedro *cough*

Alex Gordon - Guess who’s turning it on? Seriously, guess. Why wouldn’t you guess Alex Gordon?! This question was right next to his name. What, you don’t want to succeed? Success scares you? Gordon, 3 HRs in last week.

Matt Garza - 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 3 Ks. No walks, which is a great sign. I told someone not to start him yesterday against the Sox. I also read the Michael J. Fox autobiography, Lucky Man: A Memoir. Twice. Sometimes you need to zig when I’m zagging.

Mariano Rivera - Kazaam!

J.J. Hardy - 2 HRs and over .450 in the last 7 games. He hit 15 home runs in two months last year. He can get hot. Recognize!

David Wright - 16th HR yesterday. 3 HRs in the last 7 games. He’s soooooo perfect. Like OJ Simpson in the 70s.

Todd Wellemeyer - My fifth starter has a second name it’s something-something-M-E-Y-E-R and has now given up 14 runs in 13.1 innings.

Cliff Lee - 8 IP, 1 ER. Still no sign of aging on Dorian Gray’s face.

Miguel Cabrera - Pinch hit, which is a good sign if people were worried about him heading to the DL.

Rafael Furcal - Officially pulling a Kotchman. After his first minor league game, his back hurt. Something tells me we may not see Furcal again for a while and he may not do anyone any good when he does return.

Jorge Cantu - Hasn’t a hit a HR since June 12th. I get no pleasure in seeing him struggle because I have him on two teams. Damn! I should’ve went with lederhosen pictures and Wiener schnitzel recipes.

Adam Lind - Way back in April, I grabbed Lind. Turned out bad like the last two seasons of 24, so I dropped him. Now he’s back and hitting. I just dropped Melky for him in one league. I love Melky’s name; I hate what Melky does to my team.

Joe Borowski - After the game, Eric Wedge said, “I thought he pitched well, they just got lucky.” After the interview, the Indians put Wedge’s name in the hat for Emmy consideration.

In the last few days, a dark cloud moved over Razzball. Rudy just traded for Weeks, Wainwright hit the DL and I had to sit through Sex and the City, the Movie. Hopefully, my masculinity returns before Weeks. Does anyone remember Weeks coming back quickly from injury? Ever? Okay, Rickie Weeks, Rocco Baldelli and Chipper Jones get onto your cross country flight, do you get off? It’s like Weeks should be on the 15-day Activated List, then when he’s injured he’s taken off the Activated list. Makes more sense to me. Less paperwork. I can’t imagine he returns before the All-Star Break. There’s always the Alex(e)i Twins. I’ll mention someone later that I think you should look at, too. (Hint: His Dad has Ernie Whitt’s phone number.) As for Wainwright, I really hope this is just a matter of him missing three starts then returning fine. My gut says that might not be the case. At least, I hope that’s my gut. It’s either a hairy bellybutton or I’ve grown a vagina from seeing SATC. Mercy me, I abbreviated it SATC! Oh my God, I said mercy me. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday:

Ryan Zimmerman - Says he thinks he can play through his shoulder tear. I think he says this all the way up to next April, then he reinjures it next year and finds himself having surgery that has him out until 2010. Ryan, “I’m completely operational, and all my circuits are functioning perfect!”

Jerry Hairston - Fractured thumb, will be out at least a month. Time to make other MI plans. (Or IM snalp, if you’re dyslexic. We care here at Razzball!)

Ken Griffey Jr. - 600th! I was kinda surprised the Reds didn’t trade Griffey as he was taking the field after he hit the home run. I guess they want to dedicate a street to him back in Cincy first, then trade him next week to the AL.

Jay Bruce - He’s showing that penchant for striking out (7 times in last three games) that everyone (maybe just me) tried to warn you about.

Edinson Volquez - Jose aka Edison aka Edinson was very wild again and only effectively so because it was the Marlins. He does have a certain swagger to him that I do appreciate. Now if only he would grow a mustache.

Jose Guillen/Nick Swisher/Mark Reynolds - Said yesterday these guys were insanely hot right now. They all homered yesterday, Swisher twice. Should not be on any league’s waivers.

Josh Barfield - Was just called back up to replace Asdrubal (BTW, WebMD has good information for you, if you suffer from Asdrubal). If you lost Hairston or Weeks, Barfield is worth a flier. At future family functions, Jesse may not have to keep making up excuses for what Josh has been up to since last year. “Yeah, well, he’s thinking about going back to school. This place called…. University of Phoenix.”

Matt Holliday - Has torn up pitching in his minor league rehab. Get him in there immediately.

Mike Mussina - He could pitch back to back Vander Meer’s and I wouldn’t pick him up.

Mariano Rivera - Mo Knows Nothing, Mo Better Get Better, Mo Blues, Mo Better Meaty Meat Burger, Mo Losses Than Royals… Sorry, I was just trying to figure out tomorrow’s NY Post headline.

Matt Cain - I forget if I’ve put anyone in Cain as a Buy Low, but I will. I like him a lot and have been waiting for signs. I think yesterday was a sign.

Joe Saunders - Joe Meet Correction. Correction, you know Joe.

On each Sunday we’re going to try and answer your 2008 fantasy baseball questions. Is this every fantasy baseball question we receive? No, but it’s a few of the better ones that were emailed directly to us at info[at]razzball.com. So if you want some fantasy baseball advice that can’t get answered in the comments section, then there you go. Please ask the minor questions i.e. Should I drop Eric Hinske for Johnny Cueto? (yes, you should) in the comment section. It’ll be a quicker answer there from Grey or I (or even a regular commenter). Thanks, we really do appreciate your support and feedback. (But if you try to hug me, it might get weird.)

QUESTION:

Love the site, and wanted to ask you another trade question if possible.  12 team, daily transaction, mixed keeper (five) league.  There is a 1500 innings limit, hence my large number of setup guys.  Currently, I am rolling, big time, but looking down the road I was offered a trade today that I am considering, but would like some feedback.  Here’s my current lineup:

Webb, Brandon (P)
Jenks, Bobby (P)
Lincecum, Tim (P)
Guardado, Eddie (P)-Yeah, I know he’s gotta go soon…..
Franklin, Ryan (P)
Saunders, Joe (P)
Scherzer, Max (P)
Maine, John (P)
Cain, Matt (P)
Buchholz, Taylor (P)
McGowan, Dustin (P)

Soto, Geovany (C)
Napoli, Mike (C)
Jackson, Conor (1B)
Hudson, Orlando (2B)
Cantu, Jorge (3B)
Rollins-ss
Guillen-CI
Pedroia-MI
CLee-OF
Berkman-OF
Matsui-OF
Bay-OF
Werth-OF
Stairs-OF
Crede-Bench
D.DeJesus-Bench
C.Ianetta-Bench
Figgins-DL
Keppinger-DL

Currently, I am in the top four in everything ‘cept saves. I originally offered dude Matt Cain for Brian Wilson.  He comes back with Cain and Berkman for ARod, Brian Wilson, Delmon Young, and Brian Bannister. I’m thinking that I can swap out Bannister for Billingsley. Here’s dude’s roster:

P      Bannister, Brian (KC)
P     Wilson, Brian (SF)
P     Chamberlain, Joba (NYA)
P     Weaver, Jered (LAA)
P     Billingsley, Chad (LAD)
P     Myers, Brett (PHI)
P     Saito, Takashi (LAD)
P     Rivera, Mariano (NYA)
P     Rodriguez, Francisco (LAA)
C     Martin, Russell (LAD)
C     Towles, J.R. (HOU)
1B     Garko, Ryan (CLE)
2B     Phillips, Brandon (CIN)
3B     Mora, Melvin (BAL)
SS     Young, Michael (TEX)
CI     Hinske, Eric (TB)
MI     Iwamura, Akinori (TB)
OF     Bowker, John (SF)
OF     Young, Delmon (MIN)
OF     Patterson, Corey (CIN)
OF     Upton, Justin (ARI)
OF     Ethier, Andre (LAD)
Util     Giambi, Jason (NYA)
Bn     Headley, Chase (SD)
Bn     Gonzalez, Gio (OAK)
Bn     Bruce, Jay (CIN)
Bn     Gomes, Jonny (TB)
DL     Rodriguez, Alex DL (NYA)

Whaddya think?  Berkman certainly can’t keep up this pace, but damn is he good this year…..Thanks in advance and keep up the good work.  Your blog has been a must read for me

ANSWER:

Thanks for reading the blog and writing into us!

It’s good you’re looking down the road as it’s easy to stand pat after a big start.  I like your team but, obviously, some of your team’s success is from fast (and probably unsustainable) stars by Webb, Lincecum, Maine, Berkman, and your Soto/Napoli catcher tandem.

I’m going to go with the assumption that he won’t swap Bannister for Billingsley (who is on par with Cain - so what’s the point?).  I’d say Bannister and D. Young (at this point) are barely above the value of free agents so I don’t factor them in.  You’re looking at Cain/Berkman for B-Wilson/A-Rod.

I’d go for it.  A-Rod is a big upgrade over Cantu or Figgins and should be back soon.  If you’re in a Yahoo! league, you can move Figgins to 2B or MI when he gets back.  Cain/Wilson is close to a wash given how much you can gain from more Saves.  And, who knows, maybe Delmon Young comes around…he does have 20/20 potential.  Adding Billingsley makes it that much bettter of a trade…

Hurts to give up Berkman but I feel like you’re selling high.

Good luck!