Fantasy Baseball Advice

Kick this post off with a little side note copulation.  Big Stein had it all wrong when he called Dave Winfield, Mr. May.  Jason Bay is Mr. May.  From 2005 to 2009, he’s hit 9, 12, 4, 7 and 10 homers, respectively.  Each May has been his biggest home run production month.  Even in 2007 when he hit 4 homers, it was still his biggest homer month for that year and easily his best average month at .336.  Like a drunk middle-aged man at Fantasy Fest, Bay is streaky.  But side note, um, aside, what does it mean for Jason Bay’s fantasy value now that he’s on the Mets?  We call The Mets Answer To The Stadium Adjacent To The House That Ruth Built, Metco.  In jest, partly.  Let’s face it, it’s not Petco.  Petco’s like those old-timey stadiums that had the monuments in center field.  That isn’t Kyle Blanks, that’s a Nate Colbert statue.  Metco isn’t that bad.  It’s still no cup of chamomile.  It’ll hurt Bay’s value a tad bit to go from Fenway to Metco, but his splits weren’t terrible.  He only had a few Fenway-aided homers.  Fenway did more to help his average, Runs and RBIs.  315 foot doubles can do that.  But these are quibbles.  His value isn’t going down the drain in Flushing.  Is he a 36 homer hitter?  I doubt it.  But I didn’t think he was even in Fenway.  He’s a 27-32 homer guy who has 10+ steal speed.  His average is always the iffy category.  He’s not much more than a .275 hitter without some luck.  So you’re looking at 95/30/110/.275/12 in 2010.  Anyway, here’s some more trades, signings, whatever-you-want-to-call-its and what they mean for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Mark DeRosa – Just when you think the Giants have turned the corner from giving out contracts to aging vets, along comes DeRosa.  Maybe Rich Aurilla can teach him how to go from productive to albatross.  DeRosa has flexibility with his position eligibility but other than for your 5th outfielder spot, you can do better.

Kelly Johnson – Love him on the Diamondbacks. No, too much.  Intrigued by him on the Diamondbacks. Yeah, intrigued, cause I talk like Comic Book Guy.  In certain circumstances, I’m excited to draft Kelly Johnson late as my middle infielder.  Yeah, that’ll work.  Last year, Bobby Cox never gave Johnson a fair shake.  He benched him against lefties, sat him when he slumped, told him he’d never be Marcus Giles… It was a trying time for a guy with a girl’s first name.  An every day job could easily translate to a 15/10 season.  Sounds yawnstipating, but at MI and where he’ll be drafted he’ll be a steal late in 2010 drafts.

Marlon Byrd – Another former Ranger heads to Chicago.  Next year, the Cubs can grab Nelson Cruz.  Wrigley won’t kill Byrd’s value, but his value was marginal at best.  He’s really only worth owning in 12 team leagues when he’s hot.

Miguel Olivo – To the Rockies.  I already wrote a flippin’ Chris Iannetta sleeper post that I planned on posting in January.  Olivo’s signing kinda screws the pooch a little on that.  I’ll probably post it anyway because I do like Iannetta a lot for 2010 and I already wrote the stupid post.  As for Olivo, if your Iannetta’s half full, then Olivo’s a backup that can hit 15 homers in part-time duty.  If your Iannetta’s half empty, then Olivo’s starting three to four times a week and hitting 20 homers.

With the top 40 outfielders, we’ve finished all the recaps for hitters.  (Here’s all the final 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  They’re also to your left… your other left.  And down.)  Pitching recap will begin next.  (NOTE:  The end of the season rankings are based on ESPN’s Player Rater.  I felt the easiest way to keep it objective would to go this course.  This way when I say someone finished 30th and I ranked them 23rd in the preseason it carries more weight.  Does this mean I think ESPN’s Player Rater is perfect?  No.  It’s just an objective third party to see how well my preseason rankings did.)  Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

21. Carlos Lee – How did he only get 65 Runs?  He played in a 160 games.  He batted .300.  He hit 26 homers.  He hit 4th the entire year.  Oh, wait, I know.  Geoff Blum hit 5th for the Astros in 171 at-bats.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  100/33/110/.300/7, Final Numbers:  65/26/102/.300/5

22. Andre Ethier – Maybe it’s because of the pitcher’s park or the pitcher’s division, but I never fully get behind Dodgers hitters.  Lukewarm on Russell Martin, Loney, Hudson, Furcal, Blake, Ethier and Manny.  Kemp I’m crazy for, but I think you have to be crazy to not be crazy for him.  Preseason Rank #46, 2009 Projections:  80/17/75/.290/5, Final Numbers:  92/31/106/.272/6

23. Michael Cuddyer – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen.  Final Numbers:  93/32/94/.276/6

24. Nick Markakis - Here we see the problem with relying on 25 homer power.  In an off year, they hit 18 homers and you wanna strangle someone.  Markakis had two months where he hit one homer (June and September) and one month of 2 homers (April).  His speed continues to decline.  He now has back-to-back seasons of 5 homers vs. lefties.  Markakis isn’t done in my eyes (he’s only going to be 26 in 2010), but I really would like to see 30 homers before going caca-cuckoo for him.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  95/25/100/.310/10, Final Numbers:  94/18/101/.293/6

25. Nelson Cruz – His season was actually much better than this ranking and that will be reflected in January when I go over 2010 rankings.  I say it’s much better because Runs and RBIs are a symptom of the guys around him.  The homers and steals can’t be taught, and he has them.  He could easily be a top 15 outfielder with better Runs and RBIs.  Preseason Rank #49, 2009 Projections:  75/25/90/.270/10, Final Numbers:  75/33/76/.260/20

26. Rajai Davis – After the All-Star Break, he stole 30 bases and hit .325.  DNA samples taken in the 2nd half of the season showed there was a 99.8% chance that Rajai was Carl Crawford.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  65/3/48/.305/41

27. Jason Kubel – In February, I alluded to how he was better value than Jermaine Dye.  And that’s me alluding to me!  Preseason Rank #61, 2009 Projections:  80/20/80/.280, Final Numbers:  73/28/103/.300/1

28. Raul Ibanez – My call on him being a 2nd half hitter looked about as good as Lady Gaga’s clothing choices.  Preseason Rank #28, 2009 Projections:  85/25/110/.290/3, Final Numbers:  93/34/93/.272/4

29. Scott Podsednik – Sometime in May, Ozzie called him into his office.  This is what transpired.  “I want vintage Podsednik!”  “I don’t know if I have it in me, Skip.”  “Skip?!  What is that?  Punta talk?  Now go uncork a 2004 Podsednik!”  And he did.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  75/7/48/.304/30

30. Adam Dunn – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen.  Preseason Rank #23, 2009 Projections:  80/40/85/.245/5, Final Numbers:  81/38/105/.267

31. Hunter Pence – The same thing that hampered Carlos Lee also got Pence.  It’s called the lack of an Astros offense.  With a little help in Runs and RBIs, Pence would’ve been ranked much higher.  Preseason Rank #35, 2009 Projections:  85/28/95/.275/10, Final Numbers:  76/25/72/.282/14

32. Curtis Granderson - There was a whole lot of math done recently on Granderson’s year.  Long story short, he should’ve hit in the .270s rather than the .240s.  As is my wont, I usually ignore average anyway when a guy brings something else to the table.  Grandy brings 30/20.  That’s a whole lotta something else.  I feel like I may be owning Grandy next year on a few teams.  Preseason Rank #19, 2009 Projections:  115/22/75/.275/17, Final Numbers:  91/30/71/.249/20

33. Franklin Gutierrez – Back in February, I said, “I’m a fan of The Big FraGu.  Decent shot at being a cheap source of 15/15.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Preseason Rank #63, 2009 Projections:  70/12/75/.260/16, Final Numbers:  85/18/70/.283/16

34. B.J. Upton – You know what would be nice?  Beej living up to(n) his potential.    Upton’s in the same category as Grandy.  Come February, I’ll be ignoring his bad average.  Preseason Rank #9, 2009 Projections:  95/20/80/.280/35, Final Numbers:  79/11/55/.241/42

35. Marlon Byrd – I suggested in the preseason that you grab Byrd and David Murphy and platoon them.  Turns out you would’ve done fine just owning them both and playing them.  Preseason Rank #68, 2009 Projections:  100/20/100/.285/10, Final Numbers:  66/20/89/.283/8

36. Nate McLouth – McLousy turned in an old school Mike Cameron season.  20/20 — yay!  .256 — eh.  Preseason Rank #18, 2009 Projections:  95/22/90/.270/22, Final Numbers:  86/20/70/.256/19

37. Andrew McCutchen – The Dread Pirate didn’t get his first at-bat of the season until June.  Go ahead, reread that sentence.  Now smize!  (The Tyra Banks definition, not the other one.)  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  74/12/54/.286/22

38. Brad Hawpe – Hawpe’s 2nd half was about as good as my ability to read Sumerian.  Apparently, the guy with the arrow on the ancient tablet means Hawpe shouldn’t be facing lefties.  Preseason Rank #34, 2009 Projections:  70/30/95/.280, Final Numbers:  82/23/86/.285/1

39. Juan Rivera – There should be a glossary term for these Juan Rivera types.  These players are available off of waivers in just about every 12 team league.  They don’t wow you with their numbers.  They don’t hurt your team.  They’re just there in your 5th outfielder slot.  Jason Kubel would be another one.  Each year, one steps up and does more than what is asked of them.  In 2008, it was Xavier Nady, this year it was Michael Cuddyer.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  72/25/88/.287

40. Chris Coghlan – Went over him in the top 20 3rd basemen post, Final Numbers:  84/9/47/.321/8

Yes, the title does sound like a Chinese R & B song.  Krispie Young (For new readers, Krispie Young is the phonetic pronunciation of Chris B. Young to help avoid confusion with Cristal Young.) has been hot as cauliflower after a good broiling.  5 homers in 4 games this week; the post-All-Star Break last year saw him go 9/9 with a respectable (for him) .278.  In 2007, he hit 19 homers and stole 18 bases in the 2nd half (ah, those were the days for Krispie).  It’s critical to have the hot hands on your team this time of the year, especially in H2H leagues.  I’d absolutely lose a cold player to take a chance on Young.  Really, what do you have to lose, besides your league.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

Psyche!  Before we get to the Buy/Sell, just wanted to remind people that Fantasy Football has a fire going.  So, if you like, take your marshmallows over there.

BUY

Marlon Byrd – Batting over .500 for the last week.  More than that, he has 17 homers and 8 steals on the year while batting .287.  Yeah, he’s outperforming Carlos Beltran.  How’s dem apples?  Sour?  Ryght?

Seth Smith – Another guy that is outperforming Beltran on the year.  Weird game we got here, fellas (and two girl readers).  In the beginning of the year if you would’ve told me I’d be better off drafting Seth Smith than Beltran in the 2nd round, I would’ve punched you in the nose.  No apology either.  Just a nod telling you you had it coming.  Smith’s time may get bushwhacked a bit by Fowler, but with the way Smith’s hitting, I think the Rox work him in.

Carlos Gonzalez – Let’s all just own Rockies, shall we?  I like that idea.  The nice thing about CarGo (take that, Carlos Gomez!) is that even when he’s not hitting homers, he’s stealing bases.  Aim to please, that’s CarGo’s MotTo.

Ian Desmond – Scroll down to the last post to see what I had to say about him.  Go ahead, we’ll wait.  This is, after all, all about you.

Juan Gutierrez – Gutierrez is the closer.  Not officially maybe.  Or maybe officially.  What, you need a letter from the Queen of England?  He’s getting saves.  That’s all that matters.  How is he only owned in 6% of ESPN leagues?  If you give me your password, I’ll pick him up for you.

Ryan Madson – In the past, Madson hasn’t been great in the closer role, which leads me to…

Brett Myers – He can sneak in and grab a few saves.  Upwards to 4 saves.  Enticing, eh?  Almost as enticing as having your girlfriend meet a drunk Brett Myers at a bar.  I don’t think the closerousel in Philly will be nearly as clear cut as some might think, but there’s so little time left, any of these guys could run with the job for a few weeks.  How’s that for hedging bets?

Mike Gonzalez – Saves in Hotlanta could be a Mike G. Joint.

Madison Bumgarner – In keepers, you own him.  In other leagues, it’s doubtful he sees another start.

Wade Davis – The Rays decided they were better off with Davis over Sonnanstine.  Rookie nookie is alive and well in Tampa.  Our weather is as humid as our pitchers! What are you talking about?  Never you mind.  Friends of the random italicized voice will appreciate it. Wade Davis is still capable of being mollywhopped so if you can’t handle that caveat, do what you do.

Brandon Morrow – Very few starters are coming into the league right now with potential.  Mostly, you’re relying on matchups at this time of the year.  Build up complete.  Brandon Morrow’s back in the rotation.

Eric Young Jr. – I’m warning you now.  This winter will be The Winter of Eric Young Jr. (patent pending).

Michael Brantley – If you’re the kind of guy who paints a face on fruit right before you bite it just to show you’re in charge, then you know what I’m going to say, because I’m that guy too.  Brantley = SAGNOF!

SELL

Carlos Beltran – It was nice that you held onto him through his lengthy DL stint.  Loyalty!  You’ll make a good husband one day.  But just because he’s back, doesn’t mean he’s back back.  He’s still in the cavernous Metco for his home games and it could take a week or two for him to get up to speed.  You have time to wait for him?  Then throw in his knee might hinder his running game.  If you’re in a deep league, I can understand holding him and hoping for the best.  But if there’s guys on waivers, I’d lose Ricky from My So Called Life.

Brad Hawpe – I told you to sell him in June when he was still hitting.  He really hasn’t hit much since then.  You can’t play these vets who aren’t producing just because you wrote, “I Heart Hawpe,” all over your Trapper Keeper.

Joba Chamberlain – I understand you’re a fan of a descendants of much-maligned British Prime Ministers, but he’s pitching three innings at a time.  And not even pitching them very well.

B.J. Upton – Ankle flare ups are hindering his running game.  Being sucky flare ups are hindering everything else.

Ryan Madson finally took over for Brad Lidge.  This was only about three months in the making and after six separate endorsements by Manuel saying Lidge is their closer.  Ah fanabla, what a headache.  Ever since Brett Myers returned from his MMA training, fantasy baseballers (that’s you!) seem ready to put Myers in the closer role.  That would be too easy, right?  Right.  No, Madson’s the first guy to grab and maybe Myers sees time here and there.  I’d grab both of them, unless you have a bleeding ulcer, then I’d stay away.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Scott Feldman – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 Ks and leads the AL with 16 wins.  Shoot me now.  Seriously.  Shoot me and Randy Wolf while you’re at it.

Marlon Byrd – 9 for his last 14 with 2 homers and 7 RBIs.  He was having problems with kidney stones prior to this outburst, by I guess that problem passed.  (Pun point for Grey.)  Oh, and he’s single-handedly winning H2H leagues.

Francisco Liriano – Activated from the Disgraceful List and sent to the bullpen.  He still has no value.

Jake Peavy – Supposedly, he should be ready to go against the Mariners next week.  Was this whole elbow thing a ploy to face an NL-type offense?  BTW, the White Sox pulled the plug on this season already, why are they trying to get Peavy back in there?

John Maine – Will return for this Sunday’s game vs. the Phils.  He’ll be limited to around 70 pitches which will, uh, limit his value.

Ian Kinsler/Chris Davis/Nelson Cruz -  Because we all love a nice bit of schadenfreude, I present to you, frequent commenter, Zombie, “For those who revel in others’ misfortune, I present a Trifecta Ticker Tease as the Rangers wallop the Tribe today 10-0.  Those of us who own Kinsler, Davis, AND Cruz have returned from lunch, eagerly check the boxscore and see a combined 2 for 14,  0 RBI, 0 HR, 0 SB, and one goddamn Run…. The lone run only seems to punctuate the dearth of any additional production!  And for all you Esteban German owners out there, you deserve his 5 for 5 day, you bastards.”

Felipe Lopez – HR yesterday.  Now on pace for 10 homers and 7 steals.  Somewhere, Crapolanco smiles.

Bobby Scales – Ran head first into a wall, went down for a minute or two, then played a few more innings before being lifted for Sam Fuld.  Fuld, indeed.

Huston Street – Unable to return until early next week, according to Rockies pitching coach, Bob Apodaca.  I love that name.

Justin Maxwell – 3-for-5, 1 steal.  Could have some cheap speed for deep leagues, but he misses being a legitimate major leaguer by that much.

Carl Pavano – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  Now has 4 starts in a row where he’s been completely digestible.  He gets the Indians next.

Rafael Soriano – 1/3 IP, 2 ER as he blew the save.  Member when his ERA was around 1.50, like, a month and a half ago?  Yeah, me too.  Now it’s near 3.

Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  And it rolls on.

Carlos Delgado/Jose Reyes – Both said they want to return in the last two weeks of the season.  The Mets will just need to win 25 of their remaining 12 games to clinch a playoff berth.

Randy Wolf – Had his start scratched with a tweaked elbow.  Sounds like an excuse to rest him as they head towards the playoffs.  Kuroda will take his start.

James Loney – HR yesterday.  Now has two in three games, while batting near .400 for the last week.

Scott Podsednik – 4-for-7 with a steal.  He’s been a top 30 outfielder this year and the most valuable White Sox hitter this year.  Cust kayin’.

Carlos Gonzalez – 1-for-5 with a steal.  Now has 11 homers and 12 steals in 211 at-bats.  Prepare for an offseason barrage of fantasy baseball ‘perts telling you you have to own him next year and causing his value to skyrocket.

Jose Lopez – 3-for-4, HR yesterday.  Now has 3 homers in 5 games while batting near .500.

Krispie Young – Hit another homer yesterday.  Now has five in 4 games.  I’m sure we’ll see him again in Friday’s Buy/Sell.

Adam Wainwright – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 Ks with his 18th win.  He wins the Cy Young, right?  Not rhetorical.  Seriously, he does, right?

Matt Holliday – Left the game with a bruised knee.  He said he should be good by the Cards next game as long as he never has to play in Oakland again.

Albert Pujols – 2 HRs yesterday.  After the 2nd homer, Pujols’s BFF Lugo jumped around like Pujols called the shot beforehand in the dugout.  So this got me thinking, and maybe I’m just devious, but if you were a random baseball player in the playoffs, let’s say Casey Blake, wouldn’t you have your teammate pretend you called a homer?  Beforehand, Casey Blake and Orlando Hudson make a deal.  If Blake hits a homer, Hudson will jump around in the dugout screaming, “He called it!”  Like Fox Sports wouldn’t run with this story and suddenly Casey Blake would be the star of the World Series, get endorsements — Hi, I’m Casey Blake, this is a Sprint phone and I called it. — and he would get a huge contract.  Casey Blake would be synonymous with clutch.  Oh my God, I’m Scott Boras.

Julio Borbon has been running around like a chicken without its head or maybe Borbon is *pinkie to mouth* a Wild Turkey.  Yesterday, he even hit a home run.  The word out of the mean streets of Arlington was he’d sit once Cruz returned.  Cruz returned.  Borbon played.  Natch!  Will Borbon’s brilliance continue?  Unfortunately, I don’t think so.  He’s doing his best Mr. April, Emilio Bonifacio, impersonation (Flex, Bonifacio!  Yeah, you are so Mr. April!) and we saw how long that lasted.  While Borbon’s hot, own him like Angelina with 3rd world children, but in Triple-A, he had 2 homers in over 400 at-bats and a pretty terrible caught stealing percentage, so know that he’ll come crashing back to Earth like your unrealistic fear of meteors.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Drew Stubbs – 1-for-5, 3 Ks.  He’s like a white Willie Mays Hayes.  He was guessing on 0-2 counts like a pimple-faced, teenaged waiter guessing what’s in the meatloaf.  Cain’s nasty and able, but Stubbs looked overmatched on every pitch.  Keep in mind what I said yesterday, “In Triple-A, he had 104 Ks in 107 games.”  And that’s me quoting me!  But remember Willie Mays Hayes can run, so Stubbs still has value.  Just know what you’re getting.

Gary Sheffield – Sheff was seen angrily wagging his walking papers at the Mets front office.  He thinks he should get a contract; after all, he is their top home run hitter this year with 10.  Sheff owners should want him on the Mets.  Anywhere else, he’s not a cleanup hitter… He’s not even really an every day player.

Billy Wagner – Returned to action and looked dominant.  He could end somewhere that includes saving games.  Those in dire need of saves.  You know the drill.

Justin Morneau – Oh-fer-geez, Morneau heads back up Nort to have his ear checked, dontchya know?  May be headed to the DL.  Uffdah!

James Shields – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 unearned runs, 9 baserunners.  He should’ve mopped the Trop with the O’s like Carol Burnett.  The way the O’s are playing you’d think they didn’t want Bryce Harper.

Ben Zobrist – HR yesterday.  Might finally be coming out of the funk he’s been in.

Nolan Reimold – HR yesterday.  First homer of August.  Lately, he’s been almost as non-existent as his brother, Judge.

Jason Hammel – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners.  I picked him up for this game.  Ye of a sub-3 ERA away from Coors.  Then I got cold feet and didn’t start him.  Sonavabench!

Joe Blanton – 8 IP, 3 ER.  Since I told you to buy him on June 24th, he has a 2.25 ERA in almost two months.  Cust kayin’.

Brett Cecil – 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 2 Ks.  You guys had a good run… *realizing he has a 4.82 ERA*  You guys had an all right run… *realizing Cecil has a 1.58 WHIP* Wait, why do you own him?

Jon Lester – 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  Since I’m in that type of mood, on May 15th, I told you to get Lester.  Since then, Lester has a 2.49 ERA.  It’s hard to make this shizz up.

Marlon Byrd – 8 for his last 19 as he hit two homers yesterday to give him 14 on the year.  This Byrd you cannot cage…

Kendry Morales – Hit his 27th homer.  He’s having some kind of season.  It’s about time, too… Wait a second, he’s listed as 26 years old?  Oh, c’mon.  He’s easily a Latin 28.  Remember that when you’re considering him for keepers.

Wandy Rodriguez – 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Last time out, the Wandwagon’s horse had a nail in its hoof.  Well, that horse is now glue and the Wandwagon rolls again.

Kyle Blanks – Has three homers in the last four games.  He’ll be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  On the right side of the slash, which is the left.

J.D. Drew – 4-for-4 with 2 HRs yesterday.  After the game, a reporter asked Drew if he’s changed his approach.  He said, “No, I just love my Mom more than Stephen.”

Kenshin Kawakami - 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  Guess who it was against?  Meet the Mets, meet the Mets… Step right up and beat the Mets.  Start your rookies, contact your bookies… They’re worse than your local Chinese restaurant’s almond cookies.