Yesterday was the first day of autumn; this demands a poem. I call this, “Naked Prince Fielder Has The Definition Of Melted Tootsie Rolls.” The passing of summer; it’s a total bummer. Word, word, word; man, I’ve gotten dumber. Michael Brantley was da bomb; Napoli’s mom has got it going on. Jose Abreu would’ve been a sweet draft pick; Frank Thomas sued him for copyright infringement. Kershaw’s FIP is 1.87 on all hitters; Sonny Gray’s got selective dyslexia, using my teams for his personal shitter. Everything will be okay in this final week; Avisail Garcia is on a streak! Garcia went deep twice yesterday for his 6th and 7th homers. If he’s out there, of course you grab him. I’d prefer to talk about Avisail Garcia for 2015 fantasy baseball. He was a preseason sleeper this year, and he will be again in fifteen-after-twenty because he missed five months this year with an injury. Yes, he looks like Miggy, but he doesn’t act like Miggy. He’s a 20/20 type guy without killing you on average. In this injury-plagued year, his stats don’t look exactly as he has in the past, but that’s probably due to shutting it down in April and starting it up in August. I wouldn’t be surprised if in a few years we look back at this year and see how it didn’t portend anything. Unless he really did learn how to take a walk, as he’s shown this year. Though, I kinda doubt it. I expect he’s a line drive machine, 17-20 homer and 15-steal guy with a solid-enough average. Think what you were expecting from Brantley, rather than what you ended up with. Now smoke a spliff! Oh, wait, I stopped rhyming about ten lines ago. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

It’s that time of year again! No, I’m not talking about back to school, or even football season. It’s that time of year when baseball teams clinch playoff berths and then get wastey-faced while wearing swimming goggles. Basically, everyone on the team acts like Michael Phelps at a frat party (sans the bong hits). Baseball is awesome when you’re good. The hangover from these celebrations usually results in teams resting their regulars the next day (unless there are still home field advantage implications), so keep tabs on the champagne getting sprayed in the clubhouse. You don’t want to roster any of those hitters the next day, and it’s a pretty good idea to pounce on the opposing starting pitcher. I don’t think any magic numbers will be in play for a few days, so let’s put the diabolical schemes aside for now, and focus on some GPP value plays for tonight.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to check the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

I’m going to look right in your eye and say, “I don’t know where Jacob deGrom‘s coming from.” Don’t turn away from me. *turns your face by chin* Look at me. I don’t know everything. I’m sorry. I know that upsets you like finding out that Santa Claus is really just a drunk man in a costume. I apologize profusely if you didn’t know that about Santa too. It hurts me to ruin your naivete more than anything. Your child-like innocence is what originally drew me to you. Alas, we’ll find something else. Like deGrom, for instance, we can discover him together. In Triple-A, deGrom had a 6.8 K/9 this year, and 7.5 last year. Always had nice control, but he has a 9 K/9 in the majors. You don’t see guys often jump up a pedigree when they go from the minors to the majors. He’s always featured nice command, which is the key here. When a guy can command his pitches and then learns how to throw a new pitch that is special, he can use it effectively. So, what did he learn? Supposedly, Johan Santana gave him the secret sauce recipe for The Change. Another key is his velocity. This isn’t a guy who is adding a new pitch with 89 MPH velocity. He throws his fastball in the mid-90’s. Throw one pitch in the mid-90’s and another dropped in around 84 and you have a recipe for Ks. As was the case yesterday — 7 IP, 3 ER, 7 baserunners, 13 Ks — when the Marlins were like Farmer Ted striking out at deGrom. Still think he’s closer to a high-7/low-8 K-rate guy with a mid-3 ERA, but it’s still a lot better than I thought he was when he came up. Now let’s move past this lapse of judgment by me and try to enjoy ourselves. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Rosters are just about to go from Foster’s oil cans to forties for our annual tradition of getting completely wasted on rookie nookie. I remember in September of 1997, this young talkative player debuted. He could spin a yarn as well as he could spin his bat. That player had modest power in the minors and was hitting .361 in Triple-A at the time of his call-up. His name: Sean Casey. He had a solid career, hitting for modest power and a solid average. Later he became more known for his defense. Not with his glove, but how hitters would purposely not get a hit so they didn’t have to stand on first and hear him talk. He’d say there’s nothing a good conversation can’t defend. What is all of this getting at? That first year Sean Casey was called up, he didn’t do anything. Looked totally overmatched. Now if I would’ve dropped Ryan Klesko to grab Sean Casey, I would’ve missed out on a damn fine September from Klesko. If that happened, it may have shook my confidence in the great game of baseball and the ability to grow sideburns, and maybe I would’ve never have went on to become the fantasy baseball ‘pert you’ve grown to love and secretly dream up of scenarios where we’re hanging out and sharing a burrito. A parallel universe none of us want to imagine. So, be careful about who you drop in the coming days as players are called up. I love Joc Pederson, I’ll probably make him my preseason NL Rookie of the Year next year, but this year he may not even have a starting job.* *Fantasy Players who read this also searched for Kevin Maas, Sam Horn and Nadir Bupkis. Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Man it was a crazy weekend!  I think the biggest event was I saw a dude with a Fangraphs shirt on.  Way to wear your heart on your sleeve!  With a 79.8% confidence.  Then my boy James Paxton was straight up nasty, striking out the White Sox in order in the first inning and turning in a good start.  Pour the syrup, hoser!  Oh, and I got engaged…

But despite all that hooplah, I’m back, I’m fierce, and I’m ready to hit the Pitcher Profile harder than Wade Miley at the free lobster Golden Corall!  “That’s just mean, JB…”  Well, what was really mean was if you started Miley in his last start, tagged for 10 runs against the Royals.  “Damn that Alex Gordon for bringing me those KC ribs!  I had the meat sweats before I hit the field!”  Even so, Miley bounced back well yesterday, and still has a surprising 144 Ks in 156.1 IP.  He needs three more to surpass his 147 career-high last year that took him 200+ innings, so he’s taken a giant step forward.  Which may or may not sound like Jurassic Park.  Ok, I’m done!  Here’s how Miley looked yesterday, with some analysis-ation on if he can help your fantasy squads down the stretch:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

You just endure a break up?  My apologies.  But also… congratulations, you’re free!  Two opposing notions can be equally true and appropriate.  The bottom line is you need a rebound, and now that you have to pay all the utilities solo, a cheaper option is best.  So hit up your ex-ex-ex, or just stick with the acronym form of the same.  Either way, don’t waste more than a couple of hours, because it’s August and that means it’s crunch time for fantasy baseball.  While your standings and players end-of-year stats may represent a full season’s work, all that you can control from this point forward is which players’ points you pile up.  In basketball, they call the end of a blowout “garbage time” because it allows the scrubs to come in and pile up stats.  That’s the focus of this post.  We’re going to focus on waiver wire guys who should be able to help you rest of season despite the fact that up to this point in time they’ve been essentially unrosterable.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

I put a ring on every finger but the rats still askin

Cause there’s one on all of mine, I’m the sportswriter Phil Jackson

Greetings! Tis I, Beddict AKA Fantasy Soldier of Fortune AKA Tha Purple Panty Dropper AKA The Punch Line King AKA Beddict Shmurda AKA Zeus tha God-Body AKA Tha Chicken Handla, and to quote Tupac Shakur,”You ain’t never had a friend like me.” “Why is that?”, you so curiously ask yourself. Well it’s quite simple, really– Do you have any friends who will literally take hours out of their day to speak to you about your endless fantasy sports conundrums, as well as any and all life problems? Did your best friend put your soulmate in a Boston Crab and give her the piping she’d always dreamed of? Well, Dr. Beddict can assist in walking you off the ledge. Did you walk in on your sweet mother receiving back shots from the mailman with a back so hairy that at first glance you believed mom was being mauled by a bear? Again, Tehol the comforter at your service. I’m here for you, playaz and playettes, so never hesitate, for he/she who hesitates, masturbates…or something like that.

I know many of you expected me to write about my big Microsoft commercial that I shot all Sunday night with Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin and Malcolm Smith, but I signed a contract stating that I’m not allowed to mention it anywhere or I won’t BE PAID!! Being that Tehol B. is my stage name, they may have a hard time proving in court, but let’s not push the envelope shall we?! I will say that I did catch some balls from Elder God Blessed, Russell Wilson, and that alone was worth the 15 hours on set. Yep, scratch that one off the bucket list. Anyway, we’ll save the remainder of this gem for another week. Let’s move on to bright spots and last but not least, the boners, from this past week. This is Disgrace/Delight.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

As I mentioned in my first/intro OPS post, we’re looking at OPS differential by using expected (x)Homerun and expected (x)BABIP differentials. If you like Captain Planet or laser beams, or want to understand my general approach, then I recommend a gander. If you provide your email below, I can furnish the full list that you can sort. Wordpress doesn’t allow me to copy and paste it all pretty for you.

Let’s start with my xHR formula (PA*Ct%*OFFB%*HR/OFFB%). Here are the top 10 guys likely to drop off from a HR perspective: Albert Pujols, Adam Jones, Justin Morneau, Alexei Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, Brett Lawrie, Hunter Pence and Salvador Perez.

Here are the top 35 guys likely to drop off from a BABIP perspective that you actually might own (meaning I’m excluding the Martin Maldonados of the world): Josh Rutledge, Justin Ruggiano, A.J. Pollock, Josh Hamilton, Stephen Vogt, J.D. Martinez, J.J. Hardy, Eugenio Suarez, Hunter Pence and Matt Adams.

Looking at both xHR and xBABIP differentials, here are guys you might own that I would consider selling in OPS leagues based on their expected vs. actual OPS (the differential is in parenthesis just like this statement. See what I did here?):

Please, blog, may I have some more?

So it’s not really the 2nd half mark in the fantasy baseball season, but it’s the All-Star Break so what else are we going to talk about? Hell’s Kitchen? Is it even believable that these people would one day be in charge of a kitchen? There’s Real World castmates who seem like they have their shizz together better than these schmohawks. I like the one guy who burps a lot. He seems ready to run a kitchen! MasterChef, though, that show is the Sistine Chapel of reality shows. Okay, as with all of the other 2014 fantasy baseball rankings, take this list with a grain of salt. If you need a 2nd baseman, but an outfielder is above him that doesn’t mean you can’t trade the outfielder for the 2nd baseman. Also, things change in fantasy baseball. Daily. I could put Miggy number three on the top 100 list for the second half of 2014 and he could get in a fight with a bartender (not Tom Wilhelmsen) tomorrow, then he wouldn’t be number one. See how that works. This list is a road map for where I think guys are valued. It’s not the Holy Grail in the Church of Grey, that would be my mustache. This list is NOT (caps for emphasis, not aesthetics) where I see guys ending up if you were to take their first half and combine it with the 2nd half of their season. This is simply a list of the top hundred fantasy baseball players if you were to pick them up today. So while Carlos Santana did not have the greatest first half, he will appear on this list because I still believe. The projections are not their combined 1st half and 2nd half numbers; these are their projections for the 2nd half of 2014. I also liberally used our rest of the season Fantasy Baseball Player Rater. That’s right, we have a Player Rater that tells you what guys will do. Welcome to the future! Anyway, here’s the top 100 for fantasy baseball for the 2nd half of 2014:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Manny Machado‘s epitaph: He always found more success throwing a bat at a ball. Better than Salvador Perez’s: Together again! Machado wasn’t just struggling, he was like that friend of yours that not only is having a rotten time at a party, but also sucks the prettiest girls in the room into his sad funk of despair and before long, the girls are like, “I don’t want to go out and get drunk and party and potentially hook up with you. Your friend Manny Machado is too depressed.” The buzz kill friend. Yesterday, Machado went 5-for-6, 2 runs, 2 RBIs with his 8th homer, and fourth homer in his last seven games (skipping the suspension games). About time he listened to your advice, did a body shot off the tummy of the girl that wants to be a physical therapist and cheered up! I don’t own Machado anywhere this year, due to the knee issue coming into the season, but he just turned 22 years old (almost literally; his birthday was Sunday) and I’ll be all over Machado again next year. Of course, if you can acquire him in a trade this year, by all means, which sounds like it was said by Malcolm X’s less militant brother, Bobby X. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?