It seems like every year I, Albert Lang, talk smack about Mark Teixeira’s fantasy value. If you call me a Yankee hater, I’ll plead guilty every time, but I’m also a homer and Teixeira is from Maryland, my home state. So, trust me, I take no pride in breaking him down.
In 2011, Teixeira had the 18th best average at his position and the sixth most runs. He did have the most HRs and fourth most RBIs, but, really, that just makes him Ryan Howard in a down year. He was a top 15 draft pick last year and this year he’s going in the top 30. I have Teixeira as the 37th best hitter and would rather have players like Adrian Beltre, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, and, yes, Paul Konerko.
Teixeira backers will point to his career low .239 BABIP as the main reason he set a new low in batting average in 2011. However, this is the second consecutive season Tex set a career low in BABIP and AVG. What’s more, 2011 saw Teixeira continue to try and hit more HRs. Since joining the Yankees, his FB% has risen considerably. While his line drive percentage hasn’t moved a ton, he is hitting less and less of them.
In addition, Teixeira’s plate discipline continues an alarming trend. He swung at pitches outside of the strike zone 27.8% of the time in 2011 (the most of his career). His rates for the past several years: 26.5%, 21.8%, 20.1%, 20.2%. This is a two year trend of poor ball/strike recognition. Not surprisingly, pitchers are on to Teixeira’s kryptonite: last season only 39.6% of the pitches he saw were inside the strike zone. That percentage was 42.2% last year, 46.1% the year before and 46.8% the year before that. It has been on a downward trend since 2004. If Teixeira stops trying to jack every pitch out of the park and becomes a bit more selective, he could, absolutely, return to glory.
That said, I see Teixeira as a .265 hitter, with downside. He’ll add 35+ HRs, 90+ runs and 100+ RBIs, but that average will hurt the value of those. He is certainly valuable and a top 40 player or so. If you draft him in the top rounds, expecting a top flight player, you’ll be disappointed. Grey also shares my sentiments in his top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.
The top 10 and top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball are in the bag, along with the top 20 catchers and your receipt for a $30 massage valued at $50. Thanks, Groupon! Today, Razzhands, we look at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball. All this shizz can be found under the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings. Don’t believe me? Click the link. This top 20 list of 1st basemen is bursting at the seams like you at a Hometown Buffet. Speaking of gorging yourself, I’d like a top 1st baseman on my team in 2012, but it’s a little different year than last year. There’s actually only 5 top first basemen then caveats on number 6 (Te(i)x) through 9, then there’s some interesting flyers a bit later. I have a feeling 2013′s rankings are going to see major shifts with some guys that are lower on this ranking sheet moving up. Should be a fun year for first basemen and one where you can take a bit more risk than previous years. This list will get additional 1st basemen added to it in the way of sleeper posts. As with the other rankings, the first basemen are broken up into tiers with my projections included. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball:
6. Mark Teixeira – See top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Mark Teixeira’s projections. This is actually a new tier. This tier goes from here until Michael Young. I call this tier, “Caterpillars. Tier name will be explained in the Young blurb. Feel free to read Young’s blurb then return here. Hey, back already?! Awesome! I missed you. Do you enjoy cuddling?”
7. Paul Konerko – He’s been wildly consistent. In 2008 when he hit only 22 homers, it looks like the anomaly. If I were to say 2012 is the year he gets old and it all falls apart, I’d just be guessing. Last year he hit hardly any doubles, more line drives and singles, but he’s also getting smarter cutting his K-rate and increasing his walk rate. The biggest hurdle Konerko is going to have this year is keeping his will to play as the team folds on Opening Day. Maybe Hawk can work in some of his positivism in the negativity. “This is the fastest a team has ever been out of contention! You can put it on the board… We gone!” 2012 Projections: 85/29/100/.290
8. Lance Berkman – Let’s see if you can pick out the number that doesn’t belong, these are his homer totals from 2009 to 2011 — 25, 14, 31. If you said 14, you’re a believer. Feel free to draft Berkman. If you said 31, you’re in my camp. We will not be drafting Berkman. If you said 27, that wasn’t a choice. Berkman didn’t necessarily have an odd year for homers per fly balls. He made solid contact, reducing his ground balls, but he’s 36 years old and missing Pujols. That’s enough for me to avoid. 2012 Projections: 80/24/95/.275/3
9. Michael Young – This tier is filled with some older shorties, huh? Go, shorty, it’s your 35th birthday; we gonna party like it’s your 35th birthday! As I kinda said in the opening paragraph, the 1st basemen in 2012 are about to go caterpillar up in here and morph into a butterfly, but with that butterfly emerging from its cocoon Don Ameche-style, it needs to shed its caterpillar skin (can you tell I did well in my college science courses?). This tier is gonna leave behind some caterpillar skin that will be released into the garden and turn into a new plant and/or Eric Hosmer. (Again, not a science major.) To explain all of this without the confusing metaphor, guys in this tier are getting old and will make way for guys in the next tier for next year. As for Young, I don’t like him because he only gives average, and, while that’s been consistently solid in his career, he still got lucky last year and he’s due to hit a lot closer to .300 than .340. Projections: 75/15/90/.310/5
10. Carlos Santana – Here comes the fun! Can you feel the excitement? It’s like that time we got together and did the crab circle dance in the pool in Cabo San Lucas and all our roommates were there except Zach and Ashley — but who needs them anyway?! This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Butler. I call this tier, “The crab circle in Cabo San Lucas.” Is that too specific a reference? You guys and three girl readers get it. See the top 20 catchers for 2012 fantasy baseball to see Carlos Santana’s projections.
11. Eric Hosmer – I’m ignoring sophomore jinxes like I ignored when my whole sophomore class saw me get depantsed and I had on dirty tightie-whities. I continue to stress that they were once all brown underwear that got bleached. Hosmer is going to be special, and even if it’s not this year, he’s going to hold trade value through the season unless his bottom really falls out, which I don’t envision happening. His commitment to stealing around ten bases will keep him from totally flopping. He will be Joey Votto-lite this year. How lite is the only question. I don’t think it’ll be that lite. BTW, you know who’s Billy Butler-lite? Kirstie Alley. 2012 Projections: 85/25/95/.280/10
12. Michael Morse – I think Morse just had his best season, but I also don’t think he’s gonna fall like, say, Ryan Ludwick of a few years ago, to mention a player that was old for a prospect, broke out then went back to obscurity. Speaking of which, when you get robbed in a parking garage and the security guard tells the police they didn’t hear anything, you tell them they’re more like obscurity! Store it away for when it’s applicable. Morse had the trappings* of a breakout but his health always got in the way. I’m excited to watch the Nats this year and Morse should be smack dab in the middle of it. *I have no idea if I used trappings right but it sounded pretty cool the way I just threw it out there, right? 2012 Projections: 80/27/90/.275/3
13. Michael Cuddyer – Gets away from Hubert H. Homerfree Dome and goes to Coors. Boom goes the dynamite! Or does it? Cuddyer just had a solid season, and terrific when compared to the team around him. Jack Wilson would’ve looked good in that Minnesota mucky muck last year. Cuddyer hits a ton of ground balls and he’s not a huge homer threat. I’d say if he repeats his 2011, it’s a win for him and his fantasy owners, especially since he has 2nd base eligibility in some leagues (17 games). Check your rules first before you draft him for 2nd, then think about how you’re checking rules for fantasy baseball. And you wonder why you have no success with the ladies. 2012 Projections: 75/22/85/.275/5
14. Mark Reynolds – His K-rate is kinda comical. He’s a terrible real baseball player. But real baseball is for real athletes. What kind of crap is that?! Give me a computer, an ergonomic chair and some Doritos, I’m playing fantasy baseball! As long as Mini Donkey continues to hit 35 homers and steal 7-10 bases, he has solid fantasy value, just don’t draft Krispie Young, Adam Dunn or any other low average guys with him. Actually, don’t draft Adam Dunn at all. 2012 Projections: 75/35/90/.230/7
15. Adam Lind – The reason why I still go back to Lind no matter how many times he kicks my metaphorical puppy is because he’s capable of 35+ homers. Also, he got a bad rap in 2010 for being a guy that comes with a poor average, but he’s not that, y’all! He’s around a .260 guy with neutral luck. That’s a’ight, and a’ight is better than just a’ight but not quite a’ight a’ight. Want a silly prediction that has no basis in science or fact? Lind’s gonna be a top three finisher in 2012 for MVP. 2012 Projections: 90/32/105/.270 (<–crazy optimistic, but whatevs)
15 1/2. Billy Butler – I gave Butler a half ranking because he only has 11 games at 1st base. In Yahoo leagues, you can place The Moob Man at 1st. I’d use two hands so one moob doesn’t feel neglected. Yes, Butler’s in the exciting tier, but I worry that Butler will only get 17 or less homers with a bad case of blimpotence. But II, The Return of But, at 26 years old I think we can trust he’ll hover closer to 20 ding dongs. Butler, “Did someone say ding dongs?!” 2012 Projections: 90/20/100/.300
16. Ryan Howard – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the end of the list. I call this tier, “Some major question marks, but a chance for nice dividends.” Howard will move in the rankings at some point in the preseason when we know exactly when he’s gonna return. If he’s back by the end of April, he hits 25-30 homers and is worth stashing. If he’s not due back until midseason, I wouldn’t even bother drafting him and would drop him off this list completely. I don’t believe in DL’ing players for months in redraft leagues. For example, think about how many years you drafted Brandon Webb waiting for him to return from injury. Yeah, that worked out well. 2012 Projections: 70/28/100/.260 (returning on May 1st)
18. Ike Davis – Last year, Ike took so many hits on the DL; somewhere Tina Turner was smiling. Davis says his ankle will be good to go for Spring Training. I say, just keep him away from the Mets doctors. From this tier, I’d say Davis has the biggest chance to shoot up the rankings for next year. Or he could have one setback and miss another three months. 2012 Projections: 85/22/90/.280
19. Mark Trumbo – When I went over Albert Pujols’s signing, I also covered Trumbo’s question mark. As long as Abreu, Double I and Kendrys are shooting the shizz and talking about the good old times, Trumbo’s either playing 3rd or in trouble of losing playing time. 3rd base would be great, but his defense might give Scioscia the gas face. I really can’t see someone who gave Jeff Mathis 1360 plate appearances in 5 years playing Trumbo at third. That’s a huge question mark. If Trumbo can get 500 plate appearances, then I’d happily draft him. Remember a platoon player at catcher is doable for fantasy, but at 1st or even at corner you need stats. Projections: 60/25/75/.260/7 (500 PAs)
20. Paul Goldschmidt – I already went over my Paul Goldschmidt fantasy. I wrote it while rooting for Garfield from Parking Wars to boot a car. 2012 Projections: 75/27/85/.245/7
After the top 20 1st basemen, there’s a lot of names but these stand out:
Kendrys Morales – Might not be a bigger question mark on this entire list. Ryan Howard could be out for a while, but if he returns, you should get decent production. Kendrys might return and still be crizzap. Or he might return and platoon with Abreu or Trumbo or Wells. Or he might return and be valuable. You got more variables than an episode of Mythbusters. Boom! I’m bigger on basic cable than Chumlee! 2012 Projections: 65/22/75/.290
Justin Morneau – This is one question mark that I’m not drafting anywhere. This schmohawk can come to my house and make me a perfectly medium-rare steak with the most amazing compound butter and I won’t go near him because, after last year, his steak will probably give me an immediate heart attack. 2012 Projections: 60/17/75/.285
Gaby Sanchez – He (she?) can give you modest power and solid counting stats. Plus, you can pretend you have a girl on your team. You ask why he’s not ranked and I answer that he is. He’s ranked just after Morneau. Him and Morneau are a bit of a toss-up, but Morneau has an outside chance at bigger power numbers. Gaby has a better chance of actually playing a full season. 2012 Projections: 65/20/85/.265/3
Freddie Freeman – I don’t look forward to drafting Freeman. So much so, I won’t draft him. So much so much so, I didn’t even rank him. He’s not ranked. He’s just blurbed here. He’s too much James Loney for my taste. He has a slightly off year on power and you’re gonna be lucky to get 17 homers. Belch called and said burp. 2012 Projections: 60/19/75/.280/3
Yonder Alonso – I took all the prospect reports on Alonso and put through my supercomputer and out came, “Should develop into a 20+ homer hitter with a great eye. Padres TV can save time by eliminating instant replay because he runs like he’s in slow mo.” I liked Yonder a lot more when he was on the Reds with no starting job than on the Padres with a starting job. It’s just so hard to get excited about a hitter’s upside in Petco. 2012 Projections: 55/16/70/.280
Justin Smoak – I’m letting someone else take the Smoak gamble this year. Until he hits 25+ homers, I don’t want to mess with his .240-ish average. Call me crazy. You, “Crazy.” 2012 Projections: 55/18/65/.245
Carlos Pena – Looking for someone this year that can do what Adam Dunn did last year? Look no further! He signed with the Rays, but it doesn’t matter. He is what he is everywhere he plays. I will now slap myself hard across the face for saying a variation of “it is what it is.” 2012 Projections: 55/25/75/.210
Adam Dunn – Everyone seems to think Dunn is not, um, done. Correction: Everyone that did not own him last year. I guess they want a piece of the frustration that others felt last year. That’s like standing at the craps table and watching roll after roll where people lose and you’re like, “Now is the time to get in!” No, it’s not. There’s no reason why the table is going to turn for the better. The big-bellied age quickly and poorly. Don’t go near Dunn just because you lucked out not owning him last year. And, if you did own him last year and want more, then you’re like Homer grabbing the donut no matter how many times the electrical current shocks him. 2012 Projections: 55/22/80/.220 (<–actually optimistic)
Anthony Rizzo – Because I couldn’t end the post on a sour note with Adam Dunn, here’s R to the izzo. I already went over my Anthony Rizzo 2012 fantasy. I wrote it while huffing. It was also written before the trade to the Cubs, so the end about how I wanna take a chainsaw to Petco is irrelevant. I don’t think we’ll see Rizzo until June at the earliest so in redraft leagues, I’d ignore him, but in keeper leagues I’d stash him. He could hit 25 homers as soon as next year. If he breaks camp with the Cubs, then it’s on like Steve Wiebe playing Donkey Kong. 2012 Projections: 30/10/45/.250/4 (in 300 ABs)
Brandon Belt – Okay, one more! This is it though. If Belt were guaranteed everyday playing time, I’d place him between Napoli and Davis. Around 16 and a half. Belt is capable of 25/10/.280, which would have him poised to be a top 5 1st baseman next year. The problem is Bruce Bochy has a gigantic head, but a very small brain. Hopefully he realizes Belt ties the entire Giants outfit together. 2012 Projections: 70/24/80/.280/10 (in 500 ABs)
As you probably know, we just went over the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball and today we give you… Hint: it’s in the title of the post. Oh, forget it. Here’s our top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball. And by our top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball, I mean mine, but ‘our’ sounds more official. Like when your girlfriend catches you cheating on her and she says let’s make our breakup official and then kicks you in the balls. The second round is the hardest to peg. That’s just the facts of life, Blair. There’s no way around it. I have a theory why this is, maybe it’s fodder for its own post, but here goes the short version. In the first round, it’s no-brainers. In the second round, you have to complement the first guy and you want a sure thing because it’s still way too early to reach. Also, there’s just more question marks. Next we’ll go over the top 20 catchers for 2012 fantasy baseball then top 20 1st basemen and so on and so forth as we do onto our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings as you would want them done onto you. In the top 10, I battled with maybe one or two spots, but this top 20 that I gave birth to was a true labor of love that required a C-section as I battled with myself on just about every spot. I’m pleased with what I settled on, but I could see an argument made to reshuffle some of these players. As always, tiers are mentioned and my 2012 fantasy baseball projections. Anyway, here’s the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball:
11. Robinson Cano – This tier started in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball. This tier ends at Ellsbury. I call this tier, “Less exciting than the next tier, but more consistent.” I really want to despise every Yankee player like everyone else outside of New York, northern New Jersey and the retirement homes of Florida, but Cano makes it hard to dislike him. I guess, when people call him Robbie Cano, you can picture an 80′s movie bully in an Izod shirt and want to do something to him that would elicit a slow clap. “Robbie Cano, you are not going to tell me where I can sit in the outdoor cafeteria!” That’s you standing up to Robbie Cano at lunch. Didn’t you always wish you had an outside cafeteria like in Can’t Buy Me Love? Maybe it was just me. Players don’t come much more consistent than Cano. Pencil him in for .315, 27 homers and 100 runs and RBIs, then erase the .315 and make it .310. Aren’t you glad you didn’t use pen? 2012 Projections: 105/27/105/.310/5
12. Jacoby Ellsbury – I surprised myself when I landed on this ranking for Ellsbury. Like I snuck of behind myself and screamed “Boo” then added snuck into the dictionary so when I looked it up it was there and surprised myself again. Steals can be found later in drafts. SAGNOF! But they can’t be found so readily with 20 homers and a .300 average. No, not 30 homers. That was an anomaly of an aberration on the ain’t-happening-again tip. A moment in time that can only be described as the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel touching Ellsbury’s bat. Or maybe you can describe it differently. Your call. I see a few people ranking Ellsbury even higher than this, but I wouldn’t cry if I miss out on him. Again, SAGNOF! How did I finally conclude he should be ranked here? I rank Reyes a couple of slots below him and Ellsbury will hit more homers. Sure, Reyes has shortstop eligibility, but high-production outfielders aren’t exactly growing on trees, unless that was the point of The Tree of Life. I have no idea. 2012 Projections: 110/17/70/.295/45
13. Ian Kinsler – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until CarGo. I call this tier, “These guys could win the MVP or frustrate the shizz out of you.” Everyone in the first and second round seems like guarantees right now. If it were only that easy. There will be disappointments. I have a feeling a disappointment or two might come out of this tier because of injuries, but, as of right now, that’s just a guessing game. Anyway, Kinsler’s BABIP last year was low, his K-rate improved, great home park, lineup protection, power is repeatable, the same for his speed… So where’s the downside? The Rangers are a walking MASH unit and Kinsler is Hawkeye. Last year he had 723 PAs. That’s more PAs than James Cameron used on his last film. There’s not a chance Kinsler sees that many PAs again. That was a lot for even a healthy player. Kinsler loses five homers and steals if he only gets one little bruise or bump. Ron Washington, “Did someone say bump?” 2012 Projections: 100/25/70/.260/25
14. Jose Reyes – I almost ranked Dustin Pedroia here. Then I thought about how Pedroia doesn’t feel like a guy that is gonna be on a championship fantasy team. I’m sure some of youse have won with Pedroia, but his stats feel more like a guy whose numbers you luck into off waivers that end up propelling you to a championship. I’m just a hater drinking Haterade that’s loaded with Vitamin D to enrich and fortify my haterness. As for Reyes, he does feel like a guy that will win you a league. Reyes gets on his up-jump-the-boogie and he carries you for a month or two at a time. Reyes can get gully. Can Pedroia? I guess, but I want someone who can do something miraculous. Like steal 50+ bases. Also, I went over my Jose Reyes 2012 fantasy when he first signed with the Marlins. I wrote it while teaching my neighbor how to Dougie. 2012 Projections: 110/12/50/.295/45
15. Hanley Ramirez – Manny showed how insouciance (Word of the Day!) goes from cute to tiresome as a player ages. Hanley’s not that old yet. Even if we’re to assume he’s a Latin 28, he still has a few years left in his tank. Maybe the Marlins can hire Dolvett from The Biggest Loser to get Hanley to care. “How am I supposed to give one hundred percent in the workouts when all I want to do is take a nap because of the tryptophan from the Jennie-O turkey?” That would be me on The Biggest Loser. If Hanley is motivated, he wins the MVP with him and his new right hand man, Jose Reyes, doing a highly-choreographed, five minute handshake every couple of innings. 2012 Projections: 90/20/105/.305/25
16. Carlos Gonzalez – Another guy that could win the MVP or be a bigger bust than Billy Butler’s (guess that’s why I titled this tier what I did). The risk is again the health. There’s one positive that can be taken away from CarGo’s 2011. His walk and K-rate both improved. His plate discipline didn’t exactly become Gandhi-like, but any improvement is a step in the right direction. It wouldn’t shock me to see CarGo and Tulo carry the Rockies to a walk in the NL West. Also wouldn’t shock me to see them both out by May. There lies the rub, which would be a good name for a massage parlor. 2012 Projections: 100/25/100/.300/18
17. Andrew McCutchen – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Pedroia. I call this tier, “Two guys I’m trying to draft everywhere and two guys I probably won’t draft.” McCutchen can make a run at the 1st round for 2013 if he can fulfill expectations. Would be the first time we see a Pirate in the first round of a fantasy draft since when? Barry Bonds when he still wore a size 7 ball cap? Eh, we’ll save that Pirate reach around for next year. The Dread Pirate will post the same numbers as CarGo minus some average and is capable of numbers that approach Ellsbury’s 2011. I can’t express to you how much I like The Dread Pirate this year other than telling you my failings at being able to express my Dread Pirate love. He’s entering his prime with 30+ steal speed and 20+ homer power. Now you likey too; thank you. 2012 Projections: 95/25/100/.275/30
18. Mike Stanton – I strongly considered putting Stanton in the Kinsler tier. Speaking of strongly, I looked at that word for a few minutes (okay, maybe a half hour) and I thought about how strong Stanton is. Then that took me to the site that measures homers expecting to find Stanton at the top of a list. I wasn’t disappointed. No one hit more “No Doubt” homers in the NL than Stanton and he was only 2nd in the majors to Jose Bautista. Since the high left field wall will be no more in the new Miami ballpark, it could mean even more laser shots for Stanton. Also, “down the right field line” is coming in ten feet in the new stadium so the opposite field shots that were already easy, just got easier. I don’t giddy for many players (I’m hard, yo!), but Stanton’s a beast and I’m his beauty. Or some other mixed up metaphor. 2012 Projections: 100/37/115/.260/7
19. Roy Halladay – I’m very hesitant to draft a pitcher in the 2nd round. In fact, I really can’t imagine it happens. I have Kinsler, McCutchen, Stanton, Fielder, etc. etc. etc. so much higher than most people that I’m gonna be drafting one of them instead of Halladay. I only get one pick every 10 or so in a snake draft. In auction leagues, I try not to go over $29, so I’m not getting a whole lot of these players anyway. (I’ll go over snake and auction draft strategy in due time.) If there was one pitcher I’d take in the 2nd round? Roy G. Biv Devoe, now you know. Yo, slick, blow. 2012 Projections: 20-7/2.50/1.05/215
20. Dustin Pedroia – He’s consistent. Has spunk. Needs to wear a cone so he doesn’t chew his foot. He feels a lot more to me like an early 3rd rounder than a late 2nd rounder. Last year he needed 731 plate appearances to get a 21/26 season. If he hits 18 homers, we’re not even having a discussion about whether he’s a 2nd rounder or a 3rd rounder. He’s an 18/20 player. Can that be more? Sure, he just had a season where he gave more. The thing that has me feeling janky is it can also be less. If it’s only a tad less, he’s not even a 3rd rounder. I hate that we need his ceiling to justify his ranking, so I’m hoping someone else takes him. Actually, I’m almost positive someone else will. 2012 Projections: 105/18/80/.295/20
After the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s lots of players, but these two stand out as guys to NOT draft:
Mark Teixeira – Te(i)x has stopped hitting for an average. It doesn’t look like it’s coming back any time soon. His average last year .248 looks like the bottom, but I really thought his 2010 average of .256 was the bottom, so I guess anything’s possible. In 2012, I think this is the last time we see Te(i)x anywhere near the top 20. Will he totally collapse as he pulls a 2011 Youuuuuk? Probably not. The one thing that I think will stave off the ugly is the power is still there in a much bigger way than it ever was with Youuuuuk. Also, his park/lineup won’t let him be totally awful, then again Youuuuk’s park and lineup weren’t bad. I don’t want Te(i)x for one big reason. How much different is he than Konerko? Some more runs for Te(i)x, some more average for Konerko, rest is pretty similar. Things that make you go hmm…. 2012 Projections: 100/35/110/.260
Curtis Granderson – He’s the greatest outfielder known to man. Even some women think he’s wonderful. What I don’t understand is why was it that I liked him in the preseason last year and still only ranked him 88th overall? On average, people drafted him 92nd overall last year. Because he had a career year he’s suddenly a top twenty player? He’s gonna be 31 years old and could hit .240. His home runs were off the charts last year. His counting stats were cray cray. Rollins’s 139 runs in 2007 were the last time anyone came close to Grandy’s 136 runs from last year. Wanna put money on it that he doesn’t score over 110 runs? For those who think it’s a slam dunk in that lineup and ballpark, he only scored 76 runs in 2010. He only had 67 RBIs in 2010. A guy who can hit .240 could go through month-long dry spells where he gets dropped in the order. If you draft Grandy in the 2nd round, you’re like a lamb led to the slaughter. Grandy’s mother, brother, grandmother hate me in that order. 2012 Projections: 100/29/90/.255/18
After drudging through an Andy Dufresne-type tunnel for the top 20 catchers for 2011, I find myself with a group that actually really hurt or helped your team depending on how you drafted. If you went wrong with your 1st baseman, it could kill your season. Hey, Justin Morneau, no hard feelings from me. We are totally fine. Please enjoy these cyanide pills I made special for you. If you went right, you might’ve won your league. To recap, this final ranking is from ESPN Player Rater with my comments. The Player Rater allows me to be impartial while looking at how I ranked them in the preseason. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:
1. Miguel Cabrera – Member when people were moving away from Swiggy Cabrera in the preseason and I said stop paying attention to preseason nonsense? You need to turn down the treble and remove the noise. I’m not sure if people run with these nonsense stories to sell pageviews or they really believe the tripe their slinging. Either way, it made no difference. Miguel’s breathalyzer never dips below .320, but his power was a bit down. But II, The Return of But, he still gave you all that and a bag of breath mints for the long ride home. Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections: 110/37/120/.320/5, Final Numbers: 111/30/105/.344/2
2. Adrian Gonzalez – Sure, I ranked him 5th for all 1st basemen in the preseason, but he was also ranked 10th overall with five first basemen in my preseason top 10. People said I was crazy to stack my top 10 with 1st basemen and power hitters. People said you can get 1st basemen later. Grab Youkilis, people said. Or Aubrey Huff. Or Morneau. Oh, wait, I was one of those people that said to grab Morneau. Oh, well. They ain’t all gems. Hopefully that’s my last comment about Morneau for at least three blurbs. Okay, one more Morneau comment. In the preseason, I said, “Morneau’s more valuable than Youuuuuk if he can stay healthy, but put Morneau staying healthy in one hand and a fortune cookie that says, “Morneau never stays healthy” in the other hand and what do you have? Exactly!” And that’s me foreseeing crap and not even getting out of the way when Morneau started flinging it! Preseason Rank #5, 2011 Projections: 100/37/110/.280, Final Numbers: 108/27/117/.338/1
3. Albert Pujols – I’m beginning to think that he could miss five of six months and still get 100/35/100/.300. On a side note, he should open a bar in West Hollywood named Pujols. It would give The Manhole a run for its money. Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections: 105/37/115/.315/10, Final Numbers: 105/37/99/.299/9
4. Joey Votto – Another reason to take a first baseman very early in a draft. How many of them flopped from my first 20 overall picks? None. There were shortstops that flopped. Outfielders that flopped. No 1st basemen. Sure, Ryan Howard didn’t hit for a great average, but he still got 110+ RBIs and 30+ homers. Preseason Rank #3, 2011 Projections: 95/32/110/.310/10, Final Numbers: 101/29/103/.309/8
5. Prince Fielder – Just another huge year on an odd-numbered year. Making us saberhagenmetricians look smart. Preseason Rank #4, 2011 Projections: 100/38/115/.280, Final Numbers: 95/38/115/.299/1
6. Michael Young – Another guy that had a ton of noise around him in the preseason. “Ooh, Grey, your mustache is full and beautiful but don’t you think Young will be hurt by all of this trade talk.” That’s you. Me, “Stop listening to all this superfluous stuff.” Only I didn’t say stuff. I said shizz. Preseason Rank #8 for 3rd basemen, 2011 Projections: 85/17/80/.280/5, Final Numbers: 88/11/106/.338/6
7. Lance Berkman – Said in the preseason that maybe Lance Berkman can give you a 2010 Konerko-type year (a big bounce back for a vet), but I really didn’t believe Berkman could do it. Then for almost two months I continued to tell you he’d stop doing it or get injured while he was actually doing it. Yeah, Berkman and I had our differences this year. I don’t believe in Berkman for next year either, if you were wondering how obstinate I can be. Preseason Rank #17, 2011 Projections: 65/20/75/.270/5, Final Numbers: 90/31/94/.301/2
8. Paul Konerko – For Konerko, I’m sick of predicting the end when the end just keeps running into the here and now. That is not a line from Air Supply, but could be. Preseason Rank #15, 2011 Projections: 70/24/85/.265, Final Numbers: 69/31/105/.300/1
9. Michael Morse – First totally out of nowhere name, which means if you decided to punt 1st base early in your draft, you had to get Morse or you were screwed. BTW, his photo makes him look like the biggest doofus. And, really, I don’t use the word doofus too much, except when it’s totally applicable like right now. Looks like he should be saying, “Which way did he go, George; which way did he go?” Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 73/31/95/.303/2
10. Mark Teixeira – The average has really dipped recently (.256 in 2009), which I no longer think is an aberration, but three times in a row is a better pattern. The rule of three yadda3. As long as he’s on the Yanks and hitting in The House They Built In The Parking Lot Next To The House That Ruth Built, it’s gonna be hard to fault all the other stats. Preseason Rank #6, 2011 Projections: 105/35/115/.280, Final Numbers: 90/39/111/.248/4
12. Ryan Howard – I don’t buy that he was actually this low in value. Again, this is somewhere the ESPN Player Rater and I don’t see eye to eye. They overrate average and steals. As for everyone who agrees that Ryan Howard wasn’t good this year and I’m crazy, I like to point you to a picture of my long-lost son. Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections: 85/38/100/.265, Final Numbers: 81/33/116/.253/1
13. Eric Hosmer – Not bad for two-thirds of a season. Not to scream fire in the theater of Razzball, but he kinda looks like the 2nd coming of Votto. No, I don’t use those words lightly. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 66/19/78/.293/11
14. Howie Kendrick – Kendrick is such a cusp player. I’ll explain. If he gets 5 less homers or steals, he loses so much of his value. It tends to be the case with guys who get a lot of value from average. See Michael Young as another example. Preseason Rank #14 for 2nd basemen, 2011 Projections: 65/12/85/.305/15, Final Numbers: 86/18/63/.285/14
15. Billy Butler – His season was decent, about what I’d expect (as you see from my preseason projections), but I’m not exactly altering my copy of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo to a picture book with Butler titled, The Man with the Luscious Cans, because his cans were only saved by a 2nd half that was big like his badonkadonk. Preseason Rank #13, 2011 Projections: 80/20/90/.310, Final Numbers: 74/19/95/.291/2
16. Michael Cuddyer – His real value came when he gained 2nd base eligibility. Also, I do these top 20 listings in the order you read them, so I’ve only done the catchers and 1st basemen thus far. I tell you this because I was just thinking that I bet Cuddyer is the only Twins hitter or pitcher to rank anywhere in these end of the season lists. What a shizzshow in Minny. At the end of the year, they should have a Worst Series, where the two worst teams square off in a best of seven. Like you wouldn’t watch the Astros take on the Twins. Preseason Rank #51 for outfielders, 2011 Projections: 85/20/80/.275/5, Final Numbers: 70/20/70/.284/11
17. Mark Trumbo – It’s a little weird how much I ignore average. I looked at Trumbo and Hosmer’s season and really had no idea how Trumbo was below him in ranking. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 65/29/87/.254/9
18. Freddie Freeman – Having a hard time figuring out how his season was worse than Mr. Grapefruit, Billy Butler. Feel free to share if you figure it out. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 67/21/76/.282/4
19. Carlos Lee – The one nice thing I can say about Carlos Lee is you didn’t expect anything and he didn’t disappoint. Preseason Rank #18, 2011 Projections: 65/24/75/.260/3, Final Numbers: 66/18/94/.275/4
20. Mark Reynolds – After Bautista, Mini Donkey caused probably the biggest uproar in the preseason due to my ranking. I ranked him 6th overall for 3rd basemen and he finished the year 8th overall. Out of all the preseason projections for 3rd basemen (which will be up in a few days), Reynolds ended up coming in closest to where I thought he would. Terrible average, good power and some light speed. So far I’ve been more right about Reynolds than any other player through the course of his career. It’s like I’m wearing Birkenstocks, loose-fitting sweats, doing Downward Facing Donkey pose and looking right through Reynolds’ third chakra. Or something. Preseason Rank #6 for 3rd basemen, 2011 Projections: 80/35/95/.235/12, Final Numbers: 84/37/86/.221/6
On the first day of the season, I said something profound and uplifting. Don’t go back to look. I’m sure I did. Today, I’m like Mark Twain talking about summer in San Francisco but less pithy. The coldest winter I ever spent was the last day of the baseball season. It’s metaphorical, friend. Trust me. Here’s where I tell you how everything’s gonna be okay. How there will be a next season, barring the Mayans taking things into their own hands… I can’t do that. I can’t tell you there will be a next season. *checking notes* Actually, I can do that. There will be a next season. Hey, that’s good news! Also, next year we’ll know not to draft Morneau. That’s more good news! And next year we’ll be done with the hair transplant so girls will start to react favorably to us. That’s good news too! So, I know you’re blue, but without clouds there’s no sun. Actually, I don’t know if that’s true. Again, metaphorical. Or is that meteorological? You know what? These aren’t things we need to get hung up on. We’re gonna sit here, read all my year-end recaps that’ll be coming in the next few weeks and wait until next year. Even if gangrene sets into our legs from lack of circulation! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Jose Reyes – Laid down a bunt single then had himself removed from the game to guarantee he won the batting title. That’s not how Ted Williams would’ve liked it. He risked a .400 average to take all his ABs in the last game of the season. The only time he quit while ahead was after death.
Miguel Batista – 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 5 Ks. After the Mets-Reds game, Batista learned that this great start was all a hilarious stunt for a new show on MLB.TV called “Last Wish” starring the incomparable Steve “Psycho” Lyons. Gotcha, Miguel! Stay tuned for Sean Casey’s talk show ‘The Mayor’ where guests come out and chat while standing on 1st base.
Cubs – Reached out to Tampa Bay’s Andrew Friedman to take over their vacant GM job. Unfortunately, Bartman deflected Friedman and the Cubs couldn’t make the catch. Moises so mad!
Gordon Beckham – 2-for-4 and his 10th homer. I told you he’d be a sleeper this year! Deep, effin’ REM sleeper. I hate this schmohawk. I’d like to write Beckham’s blurb with cut-out magazine letters from the basement of an undisclosed location.
Brandon Morrow – 6 IP, 2 ER, 10 baserunners, 7 Ks. Now here’s an underperforming sleeper I can get behind (every year and every year he fails to live up to expectations).
Hector Sanchez – 1-for-4. How many Sanchezes does this team have? Jonathan, Freddy, this other guy… Does Sabean think Sanchez translates to 35-year-old player? Call them Tres Sanchezes and they play just outside Creme de Carmel, California. BTW, with the addition of Hector, Sanchez just edged out Sandoval as the surname with the highest net weight in the Giants clubhouse.
Phil Humber – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 9 Ks. Wasn’t in love with his K-rate this year and I’m not convinced it’s ever gonna nudge above 7. Though he can maintain around a 3.75 ERA next year. #Humberbrag
Craig Kimbrel – 2/3 IP, 1 ER as he blew the save and the Braves playoff chances. What a Wohlers.
Carl Pavano – 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 3 Ks as he beat the Royals’ Bruce Chen who went 8 IP, 0 ER. There was no actual runs in this game. Mercy rule was called so these two teams could return home to people who care about them.
Mike Napoli – 2-for-3 and 2 more homers against Scioscia and the Angels to bring his season total to 30 homers. Me, Napoli and his mom’s nipples have made it to the mountain top! And it’s chilly! Which is perfect weather. So we have to snuggle.
Dan Johnson – Hit a huge homer for the Rays to tie up the game in the ninth. How is Johnson even playing? He was Pipp’d by Monoboy. What a great day for baseball. Speaking of which…
Evan Longoria – 2-for-5, 4 RBIs, 2 homers with one being the walk off winner that took the Rays to the postseason. Hopefully now Longoria can forget about finding out who Tony Parker was sleeping with.
Mark Teixeira – 2 homers, 5 RBIs and… Oh, who cares? Did you see the Rays, Braves and Red Sox games?
Cole Gillespie – Homered in the heat of the ninth.
Eric Young Jr. – 2-for-5 with his 27th steal. I know I’m a damn fool for Young, but bear with me. Or bare, if you’re a naturist. He had 41 singles this year and 26 walks. That means he was on first roughly 67 times (I say roughly because if he legged out a single and then there was an error, he’d end up on second, I’m not looking into shizz that closely). So imagine he played in 155 games and got on first 150 times. He’d have like a thousand steals. Or 50+. Either way, please let someone free Eric Young Jr. from platoon duty. He’s got a family to feed!
Chris Carpenter – 9 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 11 Ks. Sure, it was against the Astros B lineup… Wait a second, that’s not their B lineup. Aw, Shuck.
Gio Gonzalez – 8 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 11 Ks vs. the Mariners which is worse than the Astros B lineup.
Milton Bradley – Was arrested yesterday on suspicion of battery. No word yet on Milton Bradley’s accomplices, but I’m sure the Parker brothers will be brought in for questioning.
Stephen Strasburg – 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 10 Ks. The Nationals season is like getting a massage at a shady parlor. Awkward, messy, but at least you get a happy ending.
