Like a good Jewish boy, Brad Ausmus said to his Bubbie, “Bubbie, I love sulfites, nitrates and pig a**holes, but every time I see a Nathan’s, I get the runs. Bubbie, do you have a remedy?” His Bubbie lowered her knitting and said, “You need to get a goddamn decent closer!” And so it was done. Unfortunately, due to being wracked with guilt (or possibly due to a rather hard knock on the head), Ausmus couldn’t pull the trigger and said Nathan will remain the closer. Oh. WHAT?! The Rangers traded Joakim Soria to the Tigers because Joe Nathan is making Detroit look even lousier. I can’t imagine Soria remains the set-up man for very long, since Nathan owns a 5.89 ERA and has looked completely lost for the better part of the season. For now, I’d hold both of them. Over in Texas, I have a rooting interest in Neal Cotts getting saves, because I own him and not Neftali Feliz. If I had my druthers, and knew what the hell druthers were — hmm, maybe then I do have druthers — I would grab Neftali first. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
As I mentioned in my first/intro OPS post, we’re looking at OPS differential by using expected (x)Homerun and expected (x)BABIP differentials. If you like Captain Planet or laser beams, or want to understand my general approach, then I recommend a gander. If you provide your email below, I can furnish the full list that you can sort. Wordpress doesn’t allow me to copy and paste it all pretty for you.
Let’s start with my xHR formula (PA*Ct%*OFFB%*HR/OFFB%). Here are the top 10 guys likely to drop off from a HR perspective: Albert Pujols, Adam Jones, Justin Morneau, Alexei Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, Brett Lawrie, Hunter Pence and Salvador Perez.
Here are the top 35 guys likely to drop off from a BABIP perspective that you actually might own (meaning I’m excluding the Martin Maldonados of the world): Josh Rutledge, Justin Ruggiano, A.J. Pollock, Josh Hamilton, Stephen Vogt, J.D. Martinez, J.J. Hardy, Eugenio Suarez, Hunter Pence and Matt Adams.
Looking at both xHR and xBABIP differentials, here are guys you might own that I would consider selling in OPS leagues based on their expected vs. actual OPS (the differential is in parenthesis just like this statement. See what I did here?):Please, blog, may I have some more?
Let’s look at some potential homerun decliners based on the following “Power Score” or expected homerun (xHR) formula and compare it to their actual homerun totals. Here is the formula:
Plate Appearances(PA)*Contact Rate(Ct%)*Outfield flyball rate(OFFB%)*Homerun per Outfield Flyball ratio(HR/OFFB).
Make sense? Sure it does: How many homeruns does a player hit per outfield flyball? How much of their contact results in an outfield flyball? How much overall contact does a batter make when swinging the bat in a plate appearance? This should provide us with an expected HR total.
The below lists are ranked by the largest actual HR-expected HR differentials. Their HR related performance (PA, Ct, OFFB, HR/OFFB) is listed along with their average homerun and flyball average distance and rank.
Two contingencies worth noting at this time: 1) Our samples size still isn’t huge and 2) We’re not taking into account platoon hitters, i.e. Scott Van Slyke as a right-hand hitter only raking against left-hand pitchers. So when I extrapolate the data, keep this in mind. In other words, if Scott Van Slyke consumed more playing time against right-hand pitchers, there’s a good chance his performance/power would drop off.
Here are the top potential HR decliners (I think you will see the value of this xHR comp immediately):Please, blog, may I have some more?
I never got into boxing. I think the last time it was huge was during the Rocky heydays and maybe during Mike Tyson’s reign of terror on the industry before he was a mere caricature in that one funny movie. Though I do appreciate he brought me Mike Tyson’s Punch Out. Now THAT’S a classic. Loved beating King Hippo. Screw Mr. Sandman, though. Don’t think I ever beat him with my pre-teen thumbs. But what were we talking about? Oh yeah, boxing…wait, why we talking about boxing? I never really got into boxing. *looks back at Wei-Yin Chen page*. Ohhhhh, I get it. ‘Weigh In’ = ‘Wei-Yin’. Seriously, who writes this crap? Oh right…neverthewho! Chen has a nice match up on a day where there are slim-pickins for cheap arms. So why Chen you ask? Valid question and here’s my valid answer: it’s all about the K’s, baby! Sorry, don’t know where my Dick Vitale impersonation came from but it’s true: The Chi-Sox are at the bottom of the league for team K% and it’s no different against LHP as they hold a 23.5% K-rate and a middling .301 wOBA against them. Trust me when I say, the DraftKings choices for cheap arms is a little thin. You could almost say…featherweight? Yeah, I’m done trying to tie back into Boxing. Let’s get this thing going. Here are the other picks for DK contests for today…Please, blog, may I have some more?
Which is happier, man or boy?
The soul of the father is steeped in joy,
For he’s finding out, to his heart’s delight,
That his son is fit for the future fight.
– Edgar A. Guest –
In honor of today being Father’s Day, I wanted to take this opportunity to talk abut the men that help make us men. For those of us who are fathers, the above excerpt from a poem will resonate with you. If you’re a father, I hope you have a memorable day, and for those who are not fathers, I hope you can go out and try and become one! Who’s a better father figure in MLB than the man with more juniors than any other? Adam Dunn is the big donkey, and however you want to interpret that is up to you. In fantasy, he hits a lot of home runs and strikes out a lot. He has many offspring, with new ones coming to the surface on a regular basis. There is the Mini-Donkey in Mark Reynolds, and the Mini-Mini-Donkey Ian Stewart. I also recognize El Burro Pedro Alvarez and the Urban Donkey Chris Carter. Do you have any other Donkey nicknames? [Jay’s Note: Does Pronk count?]Please, blog, may I have some more?
So if you hadn’t noticed, Nelson Cruz has been occupying the top spot (until yesterday) on our Player Rater for quite a while now. For the season, he’s hitting .303/.374/.636 with 21 home runs, 42 runs, and 55 RBI’s. In other news, what is up is down, and I’ve already made an appointment with the Catholic church to seek what our options are for exorcism. Afterall, this isn’t the only strange thing happening in the year of the Tommy John, aka year of Closermageddon, aka year of the Nelson Cruz. I can only surmise that the fantasy baseball gods are trolling us. How do I know this for sure? Anyone see what Lonnie Chisenhall has done? I rest my case.Please, blog, may I have some more?
I get so funny with the money that you flaunt
I said where’d you get your information from huh?
You think that you can front when revelation comes
Yeah, you can’t front on that
Yo Yo Yo’s we iz takin’ it back to ’92 with the baddest trio of white boys since Richie,Potsie and Ralph. The Beastie Boys are probably the best ever to drop lyrics for all the suburban kids to feel fresh too. Seriously, after this song came out every kid went out and bought a beanie and made it a staple that to this day has gotten a little ridiculous. By the way, why the hell do people wear beanies when it’s 100 degrees outside? I don’t get it. You can look like this guy and that’s not a good thing. Sorry back to the Beasties and this game changing jam. Oh damn, what am I doing? This is suppose to be about DraftKings. Let’s get funny with our money and drop the $10,700 today on Michael Wacha. He’s worth it. You might ask where I get my information from?…Huh? The Royals have been pretty blaherrible for fantasy purposes. Collectively they can do some damage but I’m willing to bet they won’t. Wacha’s K-rate sits at a very pretty 9.20 with a walk rate at 2.33. He faces Yoradno Ventura who is coming off an elbow issue and has given up 9 earned runs over his last 8.2 innings and as much as I like K’s I also like to get the W when I invest this much. The other options for the afternoon set is not as sexy and if I’m gonna be spending, I want to spend on sexy. Before I move on I was flipping through Beastie Boy videos on You Tube and was reminded of how good videos used to be. Here is my top 5 all time 5) No Sleep Til Brooklyn 4) Intergalactic 3) Fight for Your Right (To Party) 2) Hey Ladies 1) Sabotage Please post your own favorites below and let’s talk about it.
Oh you thought I was jumping to player profiles? Ha! Actually the Guru did a great job yesterday of providing tips and jokes for the newbies. It’s a great game and I alway tell you all to come join us. If you are feeling a little apprehensive we can keep it our little secret. If you decide to play I suggest using the DFS-Bot as a baseline first. Then go look for what you think is a good value. We are essentially making a lineup of batty calls and streamers. Honestly you can spend 20 minutes and get a good grasp on what your lineup should be. Please don’t hesitate to ask as many questions as you want in the comments. That is what we are here for. You can look me up on DraftKings too, my handle is J-FOH.Please, blog, may I have some more?
“All this time, I had a dead possum on my head and I didn’t even realize it.” That was overheard recently by Selig. There should be a rule that anyone that can’t make the determination that their toupee is obvious to everyone should not be in any high-powered position. Rule number two: They should be able to hear. Or maybe he’s saying to an off-camera female reporter, “Where can I get one earring like that for this ear?” But since Selig can’t figure out the most-basic concepts, I’m going to break it down to him real simple as I did on yesterday’s Razzball TV on the Radio. How do people get excited about a particular day if no one knows when the hell that day is? Super Two status day is, um, well, no one has any idea! It changes for every player. A team could think they’re delaying it now and in two years realize they haven’t delayed it. Major League Baseball should say all rookies keep the extra year of eligibility if they stay down until May 31st. So this way everyone can focus on June 1st as the big day. Or make it June 5th. I don’t care, just make it one day so fans can get excited about a specific day. Like how there is a trading deadline. Any the hoo! For Jon Singleton, it’s irrelevant because the Astros gave him a contract and he will now be their starting 1st baseman. I already gave you my Singleton fantasy, it went like this, “Singleton was suspended for 50 games last year for smoking marijuana. Singleton wasn’t even tested until he kept forgetting the pitch count and called time out to grab some nachos. After his suspension, Singleton said, “I made an error in judgement. I should’ve cleansed by downing a 3-liter jug of cranberry juice rather than Nature’s Way Detox Tea. Damn you, Tommy Chong, for endorsing that inferior product!” Any self-respecting marijuana smoker will tell you that players aren’t suspended for DUIs but marijuana gets them… Then they trail off and their argument becomes less coherent and they’ll ask if they can borrow your Snuggie so they can take a nap. We should throw out his 2013 season. Who knows how long it took for him to return to form after his suspension. He’s still a prospect and only 22 years old. In 2012, Singleton hit 21 homers with 7 steals and a .284 average in 131 games. That’s more like what his minor league season should look like, and he does have 30-homer power, but won’t hit for a huge average. He strikes out too much. Singleton reminds me a lot of fellow Astro, Chris Carter. See, the truth is out there. Maybe Chris Carter and Jon Singleton can get together and make an X-Filez movie. Last year, Carter hit 29 homers and .223 with an insanely terrible 36.2% strikeout percentage. Singleton could do the same. More than likely, he won’t be quite that bad for average. Singleton could hit for the same amount of power and hit for a .260 average. Singleton will give you a line of 32/14/39/.258/4 and be up in June.” And that’s me quoting me! I’d grab him in every league for the chance for some sweet, sweet upside, and have already. Here’s hoping he can fill my giant gaping, Fielder-sized hole at 1st base. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Lewis Carroll wrote in Alice in Wonderland, “The rule is: jam tomorrow and jam yesterday, but never jam today.” Carroll also was blasted out of his mad hatter on opium and really liked little kids (in a weird Michael Jackson-Jesus juice kind of way). However, your humble-but-nonetheless-poppy-fueled Guru says jam yesterday, cram tomorrow and jam it twice today. Now pass the hookah and pardon me while I pull on your bloomers about something here, Alice (and it completely applies to the jamming and the cramming we’re about to do): This Super Two nonsense is damn annoying. Not to just us fantasy ballers, but to anyone that’s a fan of young talent wasting away in the likes of Iowa and Indianapolis. Bring up Javier Baez and Gregory Polanco now! Don’t give me the ol’, “He needs more seasoning” B.S.. How much seasoning does Polanco need? He’s hitting .350, with six homers, 45 RBI and 11 steals in 50 games. I think this meat is tender enough, get him on the grill now. Of course teams put money above winning (and our fake teams), that’s why four watered down Sam Adams’ cost me a kidney at Fenway last week. What exactly is Super Two? As simple as I can put it is: once a player gets promoted, they start to accrue MLB service time. A player needs three years of MLB service time to qualify for salary arbitration. However, the top 22% of players promoted first in the season that have more than two years of service time, but less than three years, qualify for salary arbitration under the “Super Two” status. Get all that? Becoming arbitration eligible obviously means a significant bump in the bucks. So, it’s a big money grab by a bunch of Spaulding Smails that fart in the general direction of fans and our fantasy teams. And, while the Pirates playoff chances slip away, you pay $75 to park at PNC, and my Polanco has to have dinner at the Indy Applebee’s. Now that we’ve hit June, this Super Two stuff is about to end and there will be a bunch of prospects making their way to the party. At least the Twins called up Oswaldo Arcia and the St. Louis Cardinals came to their senses by bringing up Oscar Tavares on Saturday. If the waiver wire in your league is full of Super Two’s, grab them now and screw the Queen of Hearts. With my Sunday rant out of the way, let’s head down this rabbit hole – it’s time to jam it or cram it.Please, blog, may I have some more?
I feel I need to have a moment of honesty with you all. It’s been a tough go of late. Don’t worry, I don’t need to be institutionalized (note the sweet Pirates hat in the video). I think I need to retire the Hit of the Week. I messed with the Razzball gods, and have been burned by the flames that surround that animated baseball. I’m a creepy guy who should stick to writing about Creeper’s. That is what the universe wants and that’s what it gets. Don’t get me wrong, unfortunate managerial decisions have killed some of my calls. Cameron Maybin got benched for three games that week in favor of Quentin! *shakes fist* Kole Calhoun was sucked into the abyss of the Sciosciapath’s path. I really wanted to suggest C.J. Cron this week, but I fear the folly of Big Mike and his managerial circus. Maybe Jack Clark and Chili Davis should of hit him harder? Last week Mitch Moreland did a lite version of the Full Loney, a Cuarenta Uno? I would of been happy with a Forty Twenty all week from him. Thanks for the new term OTS! What am I to do? My “others to consider” have actually done better than my main calls. Mark Reynolds, Chris Carter and Kolten Wong all out hit Mitch Moreland this week, and the week before, Garrett Jones and Adam Dunn both killed it, while Kole Calhoun sucked it. So you can take this one of two ways. Either only pay attention to the others under consideration because they will be useful, while the focus player won’t, or there is no other choice. I’m kidding, this isn’t a perfect science. In one of my leagues, the FCL, the quality batty calls are amazing. Those dudes are on fire with their adds *tips cap*. Speaking of the FCL, I would like to send a shout out to my new favorite commenter de Nachos. Dude looks like Brett Favre, owns a fungo bat, bought a championship belt for our league, and got a concussion the other day. I lit a prayer candle for you homeboy…..Life’s a risk, carnal!Please, blog, may I have some more?