Fantasy Baseball Advice

Drew Storen had arm discomfort… About two weeks ago.  He hasn’t pitched in a game since March 7th and had soreness in his biceps playing catch yesterday.  Playing catch?  What, the Nats doing a video for Cat’s in the Cradle?  He should be pitching, not playing catch.  So that’s one red flag.  The bigger red flag with a skull and crossbones is obviously soreness from playing catch.  That’s awesome for a young reliever who was used a lot last year (75 1/3 IP).  Two days ago, Davey Johnson said Storen wasn’t throwing because he had strep throat.  So does he have strep arm now?  Johnson said he’s not worried about Storen.  Davey lies… Davey lies when he cries and implies Storen is still his prize…  In all but the shallowest leagues, I’d grab Tyler Clippard, who sounds like a captain in the America’s Cup.  For those in deeper leagues or feeling light on saves, I’d grab Lidge.  I think Storen will ultimately be fine, but better safe than sorry as they say in the Clichè Hall of Fame, which is located on Main Street in Capital City.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Joe Blanton – Report out of Philly is they aren’t motivated to trade Blanton.  Sounds like when your garbage piles up and you can’t motivate to throw it out.  Maybe we’ll see the Phillies on the new season of Hoarders.

Ryan Howard – Without a walking boot, he took grounders yesterday while sitting on a stool.  Maybe he’s hoping he can be the Bill Cosby of 1st baseman.  “I was taking ground balls with my manager, Man-yoo-el.  Man-yoo-el is great; he gave me chocolate cake!”

Ryan Madson – Threw twenty pitches in a simulated game, then left with pain in his elbow.  Wow, and Dusty hasn’t even managed him in a game yet.  He just points his toothpick at pitchers’ elbows and they go down.  This is starting to sound like Sean Marshall is gonna be the closer for the Reds on Opening Day.  Yes, he should be owned too.

Juan Pierre – Has been caught stealing three times in five attempts in the spring.  Is there anything sadder than a steals-only guy who can no longer steal?  That’s not rhetorical.  Really, is there?

Neftali Feliz – Rangers are reporting that Feliz threw with no issues.  To incorrectly paraphrase Modest Mouse, this is bad news for people who like bad news about starters they don’t want to own.

Carlos Marmol – Will return on Monday.  Will close until July.  Will be traded to a contender to be an eighth inning set-up man.  It’s a feeling I have.

Mark Reynolds – The O’s are talking about trading him.  Looks like the O’s management got the letter in the bottle that was dropped in the Atlantic about thirteen years ago that read, “Go young, you have no chance of competing right now.”

Adam Dunn – Sticking with the newly established donkey theme, Dunn hit two homers yesterday.  In 1970, Boog Powell hit 35 homers and won the MVP at the age of 28.  The next year, he struggled to hit 22, then 21, 11 and 12 before having one final (Berkman-type resurgence) with 27 homers in 1975, then he was out of baseball at the age of 35.  Frank Howard hit 44 homers at 33, then 26 homers the next year and pretty much out of baseball at 35.  Greg Luzinski hit 35 homers at the age of 27.  At 28, he hit 18.  Then nothing for 4 years (had a Berkman resurgence year), then out of baseball at 33.  Mo Vaughn went from MVP contender to retired.  The history of the big-bellied isn’t great when they start to age.  Dunn is 32 years old.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he was out of baseball at the age of 35.  Can Dunn come back and hit 25 homers this year?  It’s possible.  It’s gonna come with a .240 or lower average.  We’re not going to see 40 homers from The Big Donkey again.

Desmond Jennings – Could be out until next week, but he should have plenty of time to be ready for Opening Day.  Or as they call it in the Albright household, O’Jennings Day.

Dustin Pedroia – Left the game after being hit on the forearm.  He didn’t want to leave, but Bobby Valentine insisted.  Then Pedroia nipped at his ankles and Bobby put a cone on his head.  Pedroia should be back in a few days.

Kendrys Morales – In his first action with the Angels since his limp-off home run, he got two hits.  Small victories are good.  They’re especially good for Morales who celebrates big victories like an idiot.

Tyler Greene – The Cards look like they’re going to start Greene at 2nd base and in the leadoff slot (with Furcal somewhere at the bottom of the order).  Greene feels like a guy that someone in an NL-Only league will either get lucky drafting or will want to drop by week two.

Tyler Colvin – Hitting near .400 in spring training.  That means nothing, as does Colvin in most leagues.  However, I wouldn’t be shocked if we get into the first week of the season and Blake is benched (or injured), Cuddyer goes to 3rd and Colvin is playing the outfield and becomes one of the hottest adds.  It’s a thought to stash next to your rolling papers.

Scott Baker – Yesterday, he threw in a minor league game.  So he pitched Twins batting practice?

Justin Morneau – 3-for-33 this spring.  Feels like old times!

Lorenzo Cain – Now has four homers and is batting .486 in the spring.  Cain…Sugar!’s not yet on any of my teams, but I think I might need to reach for him in one league.  Bourgeois, you’ve been Marx’d down!

Billy Butler – Hit his third homer of the spring as he has an insane 1.258 OPS over 39 at-bats.  They don’t call him Mr. Grapefruit for nothing.

Pedro Alvarez – Ah, my old heartthrob, is playing like there’s a reason why he’s not my new heartthrob.  It looks likely M.C. Gehee will be playing 3rd base.  The Pirates get the gas face.

Erik Bedard – Named Pirates Opening Day starter.  The Pirates then added, “If he’s healthy.”

David Wright – Took BP and said, “I feel about as good as I’d feel, I guess, picking up a bat for the first time in a few weeks.  Hopefully it gets better from here result-wise.  But just being out there and being able to go through a full day and a full round of batting practice and not feeling anything, that’s pretty good.”  I’ll read between the lines for you.  ”I was swinging at about 50% against a soft-tossing BP pitcher and I still didn’t really get good swings on the ball.  It was sure nice to see the fellas after going through three weeks of testing done by a Met doctor who had a degree from a med school in Guam.  I wonder if there’s bears in Guam and if they call them Guamy Bears.”

Jon Niese – Got an offseason nose job because Beltran used to make fun of him.  It’s not the first time that a Mets outfielder led to drugs being applied to a Mets pitcher’s nose.

Fausto Carmona – Or as his birth certificate says, Roberto Hernandez Heredia, is scheduled to throw 80 pitches at the Indians’ academy in the Dominican Republic.  Afterwards at the academy, Carmona will take classes like “Ethics In Nomenclature and Age” and “Nutrition:  It’s a Real Word.”

ESPN fantasy baseball rankings are the same old shizz, different effin’ year.  We’ll get to them in a second.  I gotta build up my anger.  Right now, I’m feeling downright jovial because I just watched the coup de grâce of unintentional comedy — ESPN’s Rankings Roundtables.  If you have a few minutes, watch a part of one.  You don’t need to watch the whole thing, unless you’re into Gitmo’ing yourself.  A few things I noticed from watching a minute of one:  1) Cockcroft looks like he wants to stab Berry in the eye with Stephania Bell’s injury reports.  2) The general air surrounding the proceedings is everyone in the room knows what a bad idea the roundtables are because then people will get to see the methodology behind their rankings is Berry whining, “But guys!”  3) Brendan Roberts sits with his hands folded, trying not to get called on.  But what the casual viewer is missing is Brendan’s also mumbling to Cockcroft to nudge him if he falls asleep.  4) They are in a bare room, but sitting in what appears to be Louis Vuitton chairs.  5) Brendan Roberts gelled his hair for this.  6) I wish they sat Karabell and Cockcroft together so it would look like an Office Space reunion with Michael Bolton and Milton.

I don’t bring these videos up simply because there’s a lack of unintentional comedy since Kim Jong-il passed and can no longer look at things.  I think it gives you an eye into the belly of the beast.  There’s no methodology.  There’s no rhyme or reason.  If you held ESPN’s rankings in any regard before this, now you see their rankings come from a room of guys trying not to upset the head bozo.  So when you see ESPN ranks Michael Bourn 35th overall, you say to yourself, “Yeah, well, the head bozo must’ve wanted him early.”  Then when you see ESPN gives Desmond Jennings the projections of 82/16/51/.256/37, you think that’s great projections, but why is he ranked way down at 104th overall?  There’s no reason!  That’s the take away.  (Side note:  I Googled to see if take away was one word or two.  Didn’t really find a definitive answer, but I found this sentence as an example for take away, “The death of her mother removed the last obstacle to their marriage.”  Huh?  That doesn’t even use take away and the mother dying is the last obstacle for their marriage is the best example they can come up with?  I wonder if Free Dictionary dot com has definition roundtables.  Any hoo…)

There’s some players that stand out with a huge difference between me and ESPN.  One guy I’m going to happily own in multiple leagues is Howie Kendrick.  His ranking on most ‘pert sheets is as puzzling to me as Jay Bruce (which you’ll hear more of if you listen to the podcast that is coming later today.  You can hardly wait.  No, you.  The Razzball Podcast:  Where I sound as sharp as Brendan Roberts’s hair!).  People loved Kendrick for a bunch of years and he disappointed, then he has his best year, is 28 years old, gets Pujols into his lineup and NOW (caps for emphasis, not aesthetics) everyone is down on him.  Hey, Talking Heads, stop making sense.

Next guy that stands out is David Ortiz.  They ranked him 67th overall.  About 120 picks before me.  Then they ranked Adam Lind about 70 spots after Ortiz while giving them nearly the same projections.  Sure, Ortiz is 8 years older so, I guess, he’s got experience.  What he doesn’t have is position eligibility.  I guess it’s better to take a 36-year-old utility man in the 6th round and wait on a 28-year-old 1st baseman.  Yeah, I have no idea either.  My head is starting to hurt, so I’m gonna move on.

Boy, everyone hates Mark Reynolds.  I know, he doesn’t hit for average, but are we all playing in one category leagues?  If so, let a brother know and say brother like Hulk Hogan.  That would help explain Reynolds and Bourn’s rankings.  According to their own stupid Player Rater, Reynolds was more valuable than Wright, Zimmerman and A-Rod last year.  He was nearly as valuable as Longoria, according to them.  Sure, those other 3rd basemen had off years, but you know what Reynolds didn’t have?  An off year.  In fact, in his five year career, if you assume anything .220 or higher is fine for Reynolds, then he’s only had one off year.  I think Ryan Zimmerman has only had one ‘on’ year.  Reynolds ranks 156th overall at ESPN right after… Wait for it… Here it comes… Shoot, I think I left it in the other room… Hold on one second… Okay, here it is… Reynolds is ranked after Carlos Lee!  Wait, huh?!  Next year for their roundtables, they should bring in the real wizard behind the rankings:  The homeless person they bought lunch for at Benihana while they picked his brain.

Below is a rough and tumble charts of where some of the bigger discrepancies were between ESPN and me.  The first chart is where I’m higher on someone, which is 95% (no math done for that number) young guys who I see getting better.  The second chart is where I’m lower on players, which is 95% (still no math!) older guys or guys coming off career years that I don’t have much faith in.  The chart was provided by Fantasy Pros.  I’ll warn you; if you go to that site you might find yourself losing three hours of your life while your loved one threatens divorce.

On Base Percentage (OBP) is what Skynet created for the Oakland A’s so they could win the World Series and ruin baseball.

Actually, that doesn’t sound quite right. I think OBP is the brew baseball writers’ fermented in a basement to scare Andre Dawson, or it was the reason pitchers feared Jim Rice, thereby making him a Hall of Famer.

I’m all confused. But, apparently, Razzball readers and commentators aren’t. According to the recent survey we conducted (to mine all of your personal information to sell to Facebook), a ton of you play in leagues that swap out average for those crazy on base skills. Accordingly, this changes the value of several players:

Jose Bautista: Over the last three seasons (including Bautista’s generally poor 2009), Bautista has the eighth best OBP. Last season, Bautista was just .001 behind the OBP leader, Miguel Cabrera, and over the last two seasons, Bautista has the third best OBP in all of baseball. The only glaring weakness in Jose Bautista’s armor is average. If you substitute OBP, Bautista is a legitimate best-player-in-the-format candidate.

Lance Berkman: Berkman’s .412 OBP last year was the fifth best in all of baseball and not far off his career mark (.409). While Berkman’s average is typically useful, his OBP is top 10, making him a four-category stud. With OBP instead of average, Berkman should pass the likes of Paul Konerko, Mark Teixeira, and Eric Hosmer and is a top six first baseman.

Adam Dunn: Until 2011, Dunn was the answer to the question of who benefits most from the switch to OBP. Last season, he posted an OBP under .300. Oddly enough his walk rate was close to his career norm, but his already high K-rate spiked, his ISO and BABIP cratered and he hit .159. Dunn can walk and appears to be approaching 2012 with more determination. A return to .350 OBP is certainly plausible and has some upside. Last season, Mike Stanton with a .356 OBP had the 40th best mark.

Prince Fielder: Fielder and Pujols have the same OBP over the last three seasons. During that time, Pujols has just 10 more HRs and eight more RBIs. In addition, during that same span, Cabrera has an OBP .012 points higher, 14 less HRs and 10 less RBIs. Fielder isn’t the top 1B in OBP leagues, but he isn’t far off. His move to the American League could depress his numbers somewhat, but in OBP leagues, he is a top producer.

Carlos Pena: While Carlos Pena’s OBP skills do not produce league leading rates, they do erase the stank displeasure of his putrid batting average. Pena has a .239 career average, but .352 OBP. A first baseman capable of hitting 25-30 HRs with a .355 OBP is top-10 consideration.

Mark Reynolds: Like Pena, Reynolds makes an untenable batting average disappear with a superior walk rate. For his career, his OBP is about 100 points higher than his batting average. While his .323 OBP last season was tied for 99th best, it’s a far cry from where his average would rank him. Reynolds is an incredibly attractive option in OBP leagues, as his immense power is not entirely derailed by a sub-optimal OBP. Grab Reynolds with confidence that you will get a .330 OBP, with 35 HRs and near 100 runs and RBIs.

Carlos Ruiz: Over the last three seasons, Ruiz trails only Joe Mauer in OBP. His .376 mark is far ahead of the third place healthy backstop Brian McCann. An afterthought in most leagues, Ruiz can provide solid catcher production in OBP leagues at virtually no cost. Pencil Ruiz in for a .365 OBP, eight HRs and 50+ runs and RBIs.

Nick Swisher: Nick Swisher in an on base cyborg. When you throw out Ryan Braun, Jose Bautista and Lance Berkman, Swisher has the fourth best OBP over the last three seasons (behind Matt Holliday, Shin-soo Choo and Carlos Beltran). With Swisher’s .365 OBP and the Yankee line-up, runs and RBIs will be there. He’ll also add good pop and, best of all, you don’t have to worry about his .255 average.

Ben Zobrist: Zobrist, who walks at a great clip, has the ability to post the second best OBP at the position (behind Dustin Pedroia). A basic 20-20 guy with 100 runs and RBI potential, Zobrist takes a massive step forward in OBP leagues when they do away with his .260 average.

OBP Sleeper Values

Daric Barton: Over the last three seasons (1,158 plate appearances), Barton has a .373 OBP. He crashed and burned last season, but still posted an above average walk rate. If healthy, Barton should post a .365 OBP with 10 or so HRs, 80 runs and 70 RBIs. He could be a sneaky value in OBP leagues.

Jack Cust: Like Barton, Cust was horrible last year. However he had a .366 OBP from 2009-2011 and is moving from two difficult parks (Oakland and Seattle) to the hitter friendlier Houston and NL Central. In the easier league, Cust’s walk rate should play tremendously, possibly to the tune of a .370 OBP. He could also add 20-25 HRs and solid RBIs. As a flier, Cust’s upside makes the gamble reasonable.

Dexter Fowler: If only Fowler knew how to steal bases! His .365 OBP and 12.1% walk rate last season was a good step forward and echoed his minor league successes. He’ll likely only produce two categories: runs and OBP, but has a decent shot at 20 steals and upside to more if he ever figures out how to use his speed.

Jason Heyward: While Heyward hasn’t quite become a star, he knows how to get on base (13.2% walk rate, .362 OBP). In addition, his legitimate and realistic upside to 20+ HRs and 15 SBs make him worth reaching for in drafts. As he gets on base, he’ll score runs and has a solid shot at triple digits. At the worst, you have a solid run and OBP contributor with a little pop and speed.

Nate McLouth: Aside from a rough 2010, McLouth has shown above average on base skills. In fact, he posted double digit walk rates in every season since 2007, excepting 2008. As a late flier, McLouth makes a ton of sense. He should post a .345 OBP, get close to double digit HRs and steals and provide somewhat solid counting stats.

Geovany Soto: Soto’s treacherous average makes betting on his power unreasonable in average leagues. However, his 11.8% walk rate and .348 OBP solidify his power. As a catcher capable of 17-20 HRs with a .340 OBP, he is a clear top 10 option.

Those that get hurt in OBP leagues

Adrian Beltre: Beltre has been a good hitter throughout his career, especially since his escape from Seattle (.309 average last two seasons). However, he averages just 41 walks a season and has only posted two OBPs above .331 since 2001. His 2011 OBP was lower than that of Edwin Encarnacion, Ryan Roberts, Evan Longoria, Aramis Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis and Michael Young, whereas he had the third highest average among qualifiers at the position last year. He simply doesn’t walk enough and projecting and OBP over .335 is silly. While he remains a top seven option or so, hot corner specialists like Ryan Zimmerman, Youkilis and others can have more of an impact in OBP leagues.

Starlin Castro: There are a ton of shortstops with small gulfs between their averages and OBPs. Castro, who hit .307, is one of those. His average last season was only behind Troy Tulowitzki, however his OBP trailed eight shortstops. Given his age, there is optimism for growth, however Castro loses some luster in OBP leagues.

Robinson Cano: Cano has been a batting average superstar for much of his career. However, aside from 2010, he’s never been an on base machine. Last season, his OBP was seventh at the position and over the last three seasons is fifth. Meanwhile, Dustin Pedroia is an OBP dynamo. Certainly swapping average for OBP closes the gap between Cano and Pedroia. In this format, I wouldn’t mind passing on Cano and securing Pedroia.

Ian Desmond: Desmond just isn’t very good, so we shouldn’t be surprised he gets dinged in OBP leagues. His career .304 OBP was actually better than his effort last season, even though he improved his walk rate. There’s some optimism that Desmond can get his OBP to the .310-.320 range as he did improve his walks and cut down on swinging strikes and swinging at balls, however, over the last three seasons, roughly 30 shortstops have averaged OBPs over .315.

Alcides Escobar: In OBP formats, Escobar becomes a true one-category producer. His career .294 OBP is putrid and he has shown no signs of improvement (his walk rate declined in 2011, he chased more balls out of the zone and swung and missed more). He might be good for 25 steals, but that’s all he’s good for in fantasy.

Jeff Francoeur: Over the last three seasons, Francoeur’s .314 OBP is 75^th among OFs, nestled between Aaron Rowand and Luke Scott. While his OBP improved last season, it was in large part thanks to a .323 BABIP and .285 AVG – he didn’t walk anymore and actually struck out more than normal. It is prudent to temper expectations for Francoeur in OBP leagues, especially because if that OBP suffers he’ll have no chance of reaching 20 steals again.

Ichiro: Just like Dunn has been the perennial gainer in OBP leagues, Ichiro has been the perennial loser. His .351 OBP over the last three seasons is 30^th among OFs, while his .312 average is third. While many expect a bounce back, Ichiro is unlikely to post an OBP above .345, which, last season, would have tied him for 28th at the position. OBP leagues take away one of Ichiro’s calling cards: his superior average and relegate him to #3/#4 OF status.

Adam Jones: Jones really likes to swing the bat; his swing percentages have gone up pretty much across the board every season. In fact, his O-Swing% (the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone) is at Vlad Guerrero levels. While he has been able to post solid averages, his swinging has translated to miniscule walk rates. He’s a fine option for average leagues, but his OBP over the last three seasons is 70th among OFs. In addition, his OBP has been trending downward: .335 in 2009, .325 in 2010 and .319 in 2011.

‘How could anything get past Grey Albright!’  you say in an incredulous tone.  It’s true, it is very hard to sneak out from under Grey’s all-seeing ways.  He is the fantasy baseball equivalent of the Eye of Sauron, though slightly less malicious.  But we here at Deep League Thoughts (like how I tied my previous title into it’s own thinktank like it’s not just one lunatic behind these posts?  Genius.  Sheer, evil genius.) believe that sometimes all a guy needs is a chance for 500 ABs and  Wilson Betemit could be an example of that.

Yes, I know, you just threw up in your mouth a little seeing Betemit as the title of this post.  It’s ok, go rinse your mouth out, have a few saltine crackers and drink some 7-Up to calm your stomach.  Feeling better?  Now Mr. Wilson was supposed to be the next big thing at SS for the Braves in 1996, back when both he and I were pimply-faced teenagers.  Now as a pimply-faced adult, I look back at Betemit’s career to see what went so wrong and truthfully it’s not easy to tell.  His skill set is the same now as it was back then.  He’s bad at defense, can’t hit lefties and strikes out a lot.  He seemed relegated to the role of futility player no matter where he went.  But over the last couple of years, Wilson has been able to put together quite a few at-bats, amassing 674 ABs between the Royals and the Tigers.  Over that span, he’s managed to hit 21 HRs and 89 RBIs all while being a part-timer.  Looking all the way back to the one season – 2006 between two teams – where he garnered at least 400 at-bats, he had 18 HRs with a palatable .263 batting average and a .469 SLG%.  Now he’s in Baltimore, a place where strike-out artisans such as Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis have come to fan.  ‘But wait’ you say, ‘don’t those two play Betemit’s two main positions now at 1st and 3rd?’.  Very astute of you.  But you know what other role Betemit can play?  Designated Hitter.

Yes, at the moment, there is not any clear DH seemingly available to Baltimore right now.  Maybe Nick Markakis takes that role for a bit when he returns, but their OF is thin.  I have a hard time seeing that happening for long if at all.  Let’s not forget Chris Davis is being given a chance at 1st and has proven nothing.  If he doesn’t pan out, Reynolds can move to first and they can put Betemit back at 3rd.  I’m not one to make bold predictions but if Baltimore’s lineup shakes out the way it is seeming like it could, I don’t see why Betemit isn’t somewhere in the 4~6 spot of that order, getting 450 ABs and hitting 20 HRs while driving in 80 RBI with a .260 average.  Don’t like that?  Well, go draft Martin Prado then while I hurl.  Now hand me those saltines, please.

First off, thanks Grey for this opportunity. Second, please be gentle, Razzballers…this is my first time.

I’ve now played in a 12 team yahoo mixed league where we start two at each infield position and five in the OF (LF,CF,RF,OF,OF) for over five years. In this type of league setting, it’s much harder to cobble together a strong team throughout the year. You don’t find the Alex Gordons of the world out in the FA pool. If they start for their team, they’re getting drafted and chances are if they’re rehabbing and will be back ‘later in the spring’ – I’m looking at YOU Kendry(s) Morales – their backup is drafted as well. The late rounds of these types of leagues are integral to having a good year which makes it vital to know what players are being virtually ignored by their ADP.  Sleepers become a regular part of your starting lineup so you’ve got to dig deeper than the headlines to find those late round gems. Sometimes it’s a player that everyone assumes is washed up – read: Lance Berkman – or a player coming off an injury that everyone has forgotten like Asdrubal Cabrera.  You can’t drop Mike Morse in April and expect to find him in May when he picks it up.  You’ve got to look ahead and take those risks early or in the draft if you wanna survive.  With that out of the way, lets start with a review of 3B.

Third base is an interesting position for 2012.  It will have a new top 25 caliber SS added to it by the end of April in both yahoo and ESPN leagues in Hanley Ramirez and may have the top 1B in baseball in the fold by May if the defensive blasphemy experiment goes well in Detroit for Miguel Cabrera.  The first 10 of the Razzball top 20 third baseman  are well priced and won’t make you want to pull your hair out.  If/when Miggy and HanRam join, you might put it at 12 useful 3B for the year.  From a depth perspective, this to me is the least worrisome IF position to fill that has the ability for a lot of great pairings in leagues that start two.  If you’re drafting Jose Bautista or Evan Longoria, I’d willingly hold my breath all the way down to Edwin Encarnacion while I bulk up at thinner positions such as SS and 1B (yes, 1B is thin this year and yes I fully expect to get flack for that statement).  That said, I don’t see myself drafting a top tier 3B because of the abundance of useful ones. Waiting until round 5 on for 3B allows you to bulk up at 1B, OF, 2B and SS.  In redraft leagues, I’ll be targeting a combo of these third baseman: Pablo Sandoval, Kevin Youkilis, & Mark Reynolds.  My preferred path is Sandoval with Reynolds, but won’t argue with Youk in replacement of Pablo in this scenario.  Both should counter Reynolds BA drain while netting you 55~60 combined HRs.  My only hesitance with Youk – along with A-Rod, Aramis, & Zimmerman – are their health history.  In leagues where each team already owns two 3B, finding a 3rd one to clean up when those guys go down is tough.  These players handcuff you into drafting Swiss army knives like Emilio Bonifacio or Mike Aviles, something I prefer not to do as these players are priced for their eligibility, not their skill set.

I’ll Avoid:

Michael Young – His overall 2011 line seems like a nice 3B to fall back on in the 6th round until you look a little closer.  Despite slugging .474 and having 106 RBIs, he only had 11 HRs.  He also had a career high BABIP  in his age 34 season. Since he’s not Forever Young, that means he’s 35 this year.  I’d rather take a chance that Prado comes close to that line in the 16th round before I draft Young.

David Freese - His upside is .300 20/80/80/5 over 150 or 160 games.  Considering he’s more brittle than the paper the constitution was written on, I’d rather take Moustakas 5 rounds later while he pimps his ride for someone else.

I’ll go for:

Mike Moustakas – It’s like the person typing about David Freese knew exactly what was coming next!  He has struggled at the beginning of every new level of his career and last year was no different.  I’m willing to believe in  his August thru September line for this year in the 19th round as my secondary 3B.

Brent Morel – Though his 2011 was all over the place, he seemed to find his power stroke in the second half belting 8 of his 10 HRs in Sept/Oct.  He’s not going to hit much higher than .260, but could give you 20 HRs.  Hey, in the 23rd round [insert fungus joke here].

3B Situation to monitor: Colorado

We’ve got Casey Blake at the hot corner for the Rockies this year.  Seriously, should someone that’s 38 not named Kate Beckinsale be at anything called the hot corner?  But I digress, Colorado has what they believe to be their 3B of the future in Nolan Arenado moving up to AA this year.  Casey has already recognized and accepted his role of mentor for whenever Arenado arrives.  Colorado does not shy away from bringing prospects straight up from AA – as Juan Nicasio from last year shows – so don’t be surprised to see Nolan with the ballclub in June.  Draft and stash accordingly.