Before we commence with the jamming and the cramming and the whatnot, let your humble-but-nonetheless-handsome Guru pull on your dirty turban about something here – The Razzball Fantasy Football 32 in 32 in 32 Tour kicks off August 4 in Seattle! The Goo and that podcastin’ broadcastin’ master Nick C-A-P-O-Z-Z-I will be hitting the road for a 50,000 mile frenzy of fantasy ballin’ depravity that’ll make Motley Crue’s 1984 tour look downright virtuous. Razzball Radio will have shows from all 32 NFL cities and I’ll be posting the daily dirt on the football side of things so you can follow along. We hope to meet, greet and tip a few back with all you Razzicians, Razzaholics, chronic Razzturbators and four girl readers. There are still some spots available, so get your tix here and you could win a trip to Vegas with the Razzball crew.

scooter

If you’re still with me, let’s high five and chest bump because that means your fake baseball team is still in the hunt. We are about to hit the most important month of the fantasy season. August is the time of year where the contenders separate from the pretenders and fantasy legends are made. If your team is muddled in the middle of mediocrity, it’s time to make some bold moves and push toward the top. If your team is king of the leader board, a minor roster tweak or twerk could be the move that wins you all the cash, prizes, glory and glory holes that come with a fake baseball championship. If your team is stuck in last place, may I suggest fantasy cricket, getting a girlfriend or binge drinking – see you next season.

This week’s jammers and crammers are a collection ex’s we thought we had sworn off forever. Much like my ex-girlfriend Brenda, they are hard to resist when they call at 2 a.m. promising everything will be different this time. Then, after a couple days of bliss, you wake up to find your wallet gone, the tires slashed on your car and a bunny boiling on the stove. However, we be desperate as Ryan Zimmerman, George Springer and Troy Tulowitzki hit the DL. Who saw that coming? “I did, Guru.” Brenda! The court order states you have to stay at least 500 feet away from this blog. It’s time to Jam it or Cram it!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Hello Razzballers! Happy Sunday before the non-waiver trade deadline. *Pops party popper* Today I bring you a Creeper that feels more like a buy, but because Josh Rutledge is only 7.4% owned, he qualifies for my purposes. This is the time of the year that we need to make moves fast, cut the dead weight and change how we value our players ROS. When an opportunity arises we need to jump on it like Sky at a creepy Korean mask sale. Josh Rutledge is this opportunity, and we need to do it while the getting is good. When Tulo went down for his annual DL visit, Josh got his chance to be the post post-hype sleeper we know and loathe. He was Brad Miller and Jedd Gyorko before we even knew them. One thing I have always felt about Josh is that his manager has been one of the driving forces to both mine and Josh’s frustration. When you jerk a player around with his development, you start to mess with their psychological approach. I’ve watched this over the years and never understood it. The Sciosciapath and the Maddening Hatter come to mind first. Excuse me for a second while I go punch some holes in the wall.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Like a good Jewish boy, Brad Ausmus said to his Bubbie, “Bubbie, I love sulfites, nitrates and pig a**holes, but every time I see a Nathan’s, I get the runs. Bubbie, do you have a remedy?” His Bubbie lowered her knitting and said, “You need to get a goddamn decent closer!” And so it was done. Unfortunately, due to being wracked with guilt (or possibly due to a rather hard knock on the head), Ausmus couldn’t pull the trigger and said Nathan will remain the closer. Oh. WHAT?! The Rangers traded Joakim Soria to the Tigers because Joe Nathan is making Detroit look even lousier. I can’t imagine Soria remains the set-up man for very long, since Nathan owns a 5.89 ERA and has looked completely lost for the better part of the season. For now, I’d hold both of them. Over in Texas, I have a rooting interest in Neal Cotts getting saves, because I own him and not Neftali Feliz. If I had my druthers, and knew what the hell druthers were — hmm, maybe then I do have druthers — I would grab Neftali first. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

As I mentioned in my first/intro OPS post, we’re looking at OPS differential by using expected (x)Homerun and expected (x)BABIP differentials. If you like Captain Planet or laser beams, or want to understand my general approach, then I recommend a gander. If you provide your email below, I can furnish the full list that you can sort. Wordpress doesn’t allow me to copy and paste it all pretty for you.

Let’s start with my xHR formula (PA*Ct%*OFFB%*HR/OFFB%). Here are the top 10 guys likely to drop off from a HR perspective: Albert Pujols, Adam Jones, Justin Morneau, Alexei Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, Brett Lawrie, Hunter Pence and Salvador Perez.

Here are the top 35 guys likely to drop off from a BABIP perspective that you actually might own (meaning I’m excluding the Martin Maldonados of the world): Josh Rutledge, Justin Ruggiano, A.J. Pollock, Josh Hamilton, Stephen Vogt, J.D. Martinez, J.J. Hardy, Eugenio Suarez, Hunter Pence and Matt Adams.

Looking at both xHR and xBABIP differentials, here are guys you might own that I would consider selling in OPS leagues based on their expected vs. actual OPS (the differential is in parenthesis just like this statement. See what I did here?):

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Let’s look at some potential homerun decliners based on the following “Power Score” or expected homerun (xHR) formula and compare it to their actual homerun totals. Here is the formula:

Plate Appearances(PA)*Contact Rate(Ct%)*Outfield flyball rate(OFFB%)*Homerun per Outfield Flyball ratio(HR/OFFB).

Make sense? Sure it does: How many homeruns does a player hit per outfield flyball? How much of their contact results in an outfield flyball? How much overall contact does a batter make when swinging the bat in a plate appearance? This should provide us with an expected HR total.

The below lists are ranked by the largest actual HR-expected HR differentials. Their HR related performance (PA, Ct, OFFB, HR/OFFB) is listed along with their average homerun and flyball average distance and rank.

Two contingencies worth noting at this time: 1) Our samples size still isn’t huge and 2) We’re not taking into account platoon hitters, i.e. Scott Van Slyke as a right-hand hitter only raking against left-hand pitchers. So when I extrapolate the data, keep this in mind. In other words, if Scott Van Slyke consumed more playing time against right-hand pitchers, there’s a good chance his performance/power would drop off.

Here are the top potential HR decliners (I think you will see the value of this xHR comp immediately):

Please, blog, may I have some more?

I never got into boxing. I think the last time it was huge was during the Rocky heydays and maybe during Mike Tyson’s reign of terror on the industry before he was a mere caricature in that one funny movie. Though I do appreciate he brought me Mike Tyson’s Punch Out. Now THAT’S a classic. Loved beating King Hippo. Screw Mr. Sandman, though. Don’t think I ever beat him with my pre-teen thumbs. But what were we talking about? Oh yeah, boxing…wait, why we talking about boxing? I never really got into boxing. *looks back at Wei-Yin Chen page*. Ohhhhh, I get it. ‘Weigh In’ = ‘Wei-Yin’. Seriously, who writes this crap? Oh right…neverthewho! Chen has a nice match up on a day where there are slim-pickins for cheap arms. So why Chen you ask? Valid question and here’s my valid answer: it’s all about the K’s, baby! Sorry, don’t know where my Dick Vitale impersonation came from but it’s true: The Chi-Sox are at the bottom of the league for team K% and it’s no different against LHP as they hold a 23.5% K-rate and a middling .301 wOBA against them. Trust me when I say, the DraftKings choices for cheap arms is a little thin. You could almost say…featherweight? Yeah, I’m done trying to tie back into Boxing. Let’s get this thing going. Here are the other picks for DK contests for today…

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Which is happier, man or boy?
The soul of the father is steeped in joy,
For he’s finding out, to his heart’s delight,
That his son is fit for the future fight.

- Edgar A. Guest -

In honor of today being Father’s Day, I wanted to take this opportunity to talk abut the men that help make us men. For those of us who are fathers, the above excerpt from a poem will resonate with you. If you’re a father, I hope you have a memorable day, and for those who are not fathers, I hope you can go out and try and become one! Who’s a better father figure in MLB than the man with more juniors than any other? Adam Dunn is the big donkey, and however you want to interpret that is up to you. In fantasy, he hits a lot of home runs and strikes out a lot. He has many offspring, with new ones coming to the surface on a regular basis. There is the Mini-Donkey in Mark Reynolds, and the Mini-Mini-Donkey Ian Stewart. I also recognize El Burro Pedro Alvarez and the Urban Donkey Chris Carter. Do you have any other Donkey nicknames? [Jay's Note: Does Pronk count?]

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So if you hadn’t noticed, Nelson Cruz has been occupying the top spot (until yesterday) on our Player Rater for quite a while now. For the season, he’s hitting .303/.374/.636 with 21 home runs, 42 runs, and 55 RBI’s. In other news, what is up is down, and I’ve already made an appointment with the Catholic church to seek what our options are for exorcism. Afterall, this isn’t the only strange thing happening in the year of the Tommy John, aka year of Closermageddon, aka year of the Nelson Cruz. I can only surmise that the fantasy baseball gods are trolling us. How do I know this for sure? Anyone see what Lonnie Chisenhall has done? I rest my case.

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I get so funny with the money that you flaunt
I said where’d you get your information from huh?
You think that you can front when revelation comes

Yeah, you can’t front on that

Yo Yo Yo’s we iz takin’ it back to ’92 with the baddest trio of white boys since Richie,Potsie and Ralph. The Beastie Boys are probably the best ever to drop lyrics for all the suburban kids to feel fresh too. Seriously, after this song came out every kid went out and bought a beanie and made it a staple that to this day has gotten a little ridiculous. By the way, why the hell do people wear beanies when it’s 100 degrees outside? I don’t get it. You can look like this guy and that’s not a good thing. Sorry back to the Beasties and this game changing jam. Oh damn, what am I doing? This is suppose to be about DraftKings. Let’s get funny with our money and drop the $10,700 today on Michael Wacha. He’s worth it. You might ask where I get my information from?…Huh? The Royals have been pretty blaherrible for fantasy purposes. Collectively they can do some damage but I’m willing to bet they won’t. Wacha’s K-rate sits at a very pretty 9.20 with a walk rate at 2.33. He faces Yoradno Ventura who is coming off an elbow issue and has given up 9 earned runs over his last 8.2 innings and as much as I like K’s I also like to get the W when I invest this much. The other options for the afternoon set is not as sexy and if I’m gonna be spending, I want to spend on sexy. Before I move on I was flipping through Beastie Boy videos on You Tube and was reminded of how good videos used to be. Here is my top 5 all time 5) No Sleep Til Brooklyn 4) Intergalactic 3) Fight for Your Right (To Party) 2) Hey Ladies 1) Sabotage Please post your own favorites below and let’s talk about it.

Oh you thought I was jumping to player profiles? Ha! Actually the Guru did a great job yesterday of providing tips and jokes for the newbies. It’s a great game and I alway tell you all to come join us. If you are feeling a little apprehensive we can keep it our little secret. If you decide to play I suggest using the DFS-Bot as a baseline first. Then go look for what you think is a good value. We are essentially making a lineup of batty calls and streamers. Honestly you can spend 20 minutes and get a good grasp on what your lineup should be. Please don’t hesitate to ask as many questions as you want in the comments. That is what we are here for. You can look me up on DraftKings too, my handle is J-FOH.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

“All this time, I had a dead possum on my head and I didn’t even realize it.” That was overheard recently by Selig. There should be a rule that anyone that can’t make the determination that their toupee is obvious to everyone should not be in any high-powered position. Rule number two: They should be able to hear. Or maybe he’s saying to an off-camera female reporter, “Where can I get one earring like that for this ear?” But since Selig can’t figure out the most-basic concepts, I’m going to break it down to him real simple as I did on yesterday’s Razzball TV on the Radio. How do people get excited about a particular day if no one knows when the hell that day is? Super Two status day is, um, well, no one has any idea! It changes for every player. A team could think they’re delaying it now and in two years realize they haven’t delayed it. Major League Baseball should say all rookies keep the extra year of eligibility if they stay down until May 31st. So this way everyone can focus on June 1st as the big day. Or make it June 5th. I don’t care, just make it one day so fans can get excited about a specific day. Like how there is a trading deadline. Any the hoo! For Jon Singleton, it’s irrelevant because the Astros gave him a contract and he will now be their starting 1st baseman. I already gave you my Singleton fantasy, it went like this, “Singleton was suspended for 50 games last year for smoking marijuana. Singleton wasn’t even tested until he kept forgetting the pitch count and called time out to grab some nachos. After his suspension, Singleton said, “I made an error in judgement. I should’ve cleansed by downing a 3-liter jug of cranberry juice rather than Nature’s Way Detox Tea. Damn you, Tommy Chong, for endorsing that inferior product!” Any self-respecting marijuana smoker will tell you that players aren’t suspended for DUIs but marijuana gets them… Then they trail off and their argument becomes less coherent and they’ll ask if they can borrow your Snuggie so they can take a nap. We should throw out his 2013 season. Who knows how long it took for him to return to form after his suspension. He’s still a prospect and only 22 years old. In 2012, Singleton hit 21 homers with 7 steals and a .284 average in 131 games. That’s more like what his minor league season should look like, and he does have 30-homer power, but won’t hit for a huge average. He strikes out too much. Singleton reminds me a lot of fellow Astro, Chris Carter. See, the truth is out there. Maybe Chris Carter and Jon Singleton can get together and make an X-Filez movie. Last year, Carter hit 29 homers and .223 with an insanely terrible 36.2% strikeout percentage. Singleton could do the same. More than likely, he won’t be quite that bad for average. Singleton could hit for the same amount of power and hit for a .260 average. Singleton will give you a line of 32/14/39/.258/4 and be up in June.” And that’s me quoting me! I’d grab him in every league for the chance for some sweet, sweet upside, and have already. Here’s hoping he can fill my giant gaping, Fielder-sized hole at 1st base. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?