Fantasy Baseball Advice

We have now posted the 2009 Point Shares for 12-team MLB leagues.

For those unfamiliar, Point Shares are our home-grown methodology (inspired by Bill James’ Win Shares) for rating fantasy players. They represent the estimated difference in an average fantasy team’s points if they were to substitute a given player for the average player at his position. For example, Albert Pujols’ 9.19 Point Shares mean he was worth 9.19 points more to the average team than an average 1B (closest player to ‘average 1B’ was Jorge Cantu). Point Shares are estimated for each statistical category – Pujols’ points are broken out as: 2.2 Runs, 2.1 HRs, 2.3 RBI, 1.0 SB, and 1.6 AVG.

2009 – Top 20 Point Shares

Our top 20 ended up with an even split of pitchers (9 SP/1 RP) and hitters with Zack Greinke taking top honors. You’ll see some similarities between the ESPN Player Rater and our Point Shares but we’ll point out two notable differences:

1) ESPN loves speedy players (is that why they employed Eric Young for more than a second?) – it generously credits SBs and doesn’t penalize weak HR/RBI. Where Crawford and Ellsbury are 5th and 6th overall and almost even with Braun in ESPN they are 17th and 21st in ours and over 2.5 points or $10 less valuable than Braun. I like SBs as much as the next fantasy player but Braun’s 113/32/114/20/.320 is going to help the average team a lot more than Crawford’s 96/15/68/60/.305. Take ESPN ranking of guys with high SBs with a grain of salt.

2) ESPN Puts Less Stock on Position Scarcity – Joe Mauer is #6 in our ranking vs. #17 in ESPN. Do you realize who the 4th most valuable catcher was in fantasy? Kurt Suzuki! Mauer’s stats for an OF would’ve qualified him for #17. As a Catcher, his stats were an easy top 10 value.

2009 – Top 20 Draft Values

In what should amount to no surprise to anyone who followed baseball in 2009, our Point Shares have Mark Reynolds as the #1 best value (using ESPN Average Draft Position). He wasn’t even drafted in many leagues yet ended up as the 15th most valuable fantasy player in the majors (according to Point Shares). 13 of the 20 best values are pitchers (9 SP, 4 RP) lending credence to the claim that pitchers are more unpredictable and more bargains may be available later in the draft.

Some Nostradamus awards go out to:
1) Sean Smith – the man behind CHONE. Let’s just say I was dubious when Javier Vazquez came up #2 using CHONE’s 2009. He ends up #7. Impressive.

2) Matthew Berry – It might’ve been an awkward interview we had with him last year but we asked for the best undervalued OF and he nailed it with Shin Soo-Choo.

3) Razzball. In my NL Blogger draft, I managed to snag 4 of the 11 NLers in the top 20 in value: Razzball 2009 crush / #1 value Mark Reynolds, #15 Huston Street, #18 Ryan Franklin, #20 Randy Wolf. The relievers were complete and utter luck but still…

2009 – Bottom 20 Draft Values

Interestingly, only 5 of the top 20 worst values are pitchers. (Note: If a hitter/pitcher missed the majority of the year, we capped their negative Point Shares as the lowest drafted slot – #260). This is a mix of tough breaks (Beltran, Reyes, Webb, Manny) with a few guys that we warned were being overvalued in drafts (Chris Davis, Francisco Liriano, Josh Hamilton). I don’t feel like giving out some anti-Nostradamus (Ignoramus?) awards but I will admit to drafting Geovany Soto AND Russ Martin in my NL Blogger Draft.

Last note: 2010 Point Shares based on CHONE data will be posted in the next week!

We finish off the infield with the top 20 3rd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball.  The top 20 2010 fantasy baseball rankings from shallowest to deepest go catchers, shortstops, third basemen, 2nd basemen then 1st basemen.  That’s right, I think the 2nd basemen are deeper than the 3rd basemen.  3rd base gets the gas face.  Last year, I punted 3rd base knowing I could get Mark Reynolds late.  This year, Stewart’s my sleeper du jour, but because of the lack of 3rd base options, he’s not even making it into the 10th round of most drafts.  That’s a bad sign.  As with other top 20 rankings, I list where I see tiers beginning and ending and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1. Alex Rodriguez – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball for A-Rod’s projections.

2. Evan Longoria – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Longoria’s projections.

3. David Wright – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Wright’s projections.

4. Ryan Zimmerman – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Sandoval.  I call this tier, “You didn’t get a top 3rd baseman, so here you are.”  Zimmerman finally came into his own last year.  The homers might plateau around 30 and the average probably won’t go above .300… Then again, he’s only 25 years old and he has some speed potential…. Then again, the Nats have put the brakes on him to avoid injury.  Either either way, Zimmerman’s on the rise with solid power, Runs, RBIs and average.  Hmm… Sounds a lot like Youuuuuk.  2010 Projections:  105/30/110/.295/5

5. Kevin Youkilis – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Youkilis’s projections.

6. Mark Reynolds – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Reynolds’s projections.

7. Pablo Sandoval – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Sandoval’s projections.

8. Chone Figgins – This is a new tier.  This is a one man tier.  I call this tier, “You better have some serious power from your middle infielders to support Figgy’s dearth.” Figgy’s Dearth is also a great speed metal band.  2010 Projections:  105/5/55/.295/40

9. Gordon Beckham – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Beltre.  I call this tier, “Upside, no upside, upside, no upside, no upside.”  I went over my Gordon Beckham fantasy already.  At that post, I said, “Shoot, Jacquese from The Real World: San Diego could probably see the bottom.”  Then I said, “It’s impossible; LaRussa tried it briefly with Pujols.”  Finally, I said, “I love you, Gordon Beckham even if you sound British and their teeth aren’t the best.”  Hmm… Gotta work on what quotes I pull.  2010 Projections:  85/18/63/.260/14

10. Michael Young – Which percentage doesn’t fit — 8.6%, 6.9%, 7.2% or 14.9%?  If you answered anything other than 14.9%, you might’ve stopped at the “or.”  Fair enough, I do that sometimes.  Those percentages were his last four years of HR/FB.  He’s really not a 20 homer hitter or.  2010 Projections:  75/14/90/.315/10

11. Ian Stewart – I went over Stewart’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.  He also received an Ian Stewart sleeper thing-a-ma-whosie.

12. Aramis Ramirez – He’s Pablo Sandoval with injury concerns, a slightly lower average and no upside.  Aramis is only 31 so you may not want to write him off, but he hasn’t hit more than 30 homers since 2006 so I’m writing him off.  2010 Projections:  75/25/95/.290

13. Chipper Jones – Last year, Chipper played in the most games in a season since 2003 and he had his worst season ever.  Hey, Chipper, maybe don’t push yourself so hard to play injured.  ‘09 wasn’t a sign that he can’t still hit .310, just some bad luck.  2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.310/5

14. Adrian Beltre – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Cantu.  I call this tier, “You might want to drop these guys from your team before May 1st.”  God knows Beltre had his balls busted enough last year, but in 449 ABs, he hit 8 homers.  So did Gregg Zaun.  The move to Fenway has to help a bit, right?  Sure, or at least that’s what I said.  2010 Projections:  70/24/80/.275/10

15. Mark DeRosa – Is DeRosa a 20 homer hitter or a platoon player?  That’s something to *pinkie to mouth* ponderosa.  2010 Projections:  65/18/75/.265/3

16. Jorge Cantu – I could’ve put Casey Blake here, but what fun is that?  Wait, what fun is Cantu? Yeah, true.  Cantu hit 7 homers in April then took a Taco Bell-sized dump for 4 months.  The batting woes may be attributed to a sore wrist.  In September, he started hitting again.  May have been due to his wrist coming around.  Then again, maybe you’ll want to drop him by mid-April.  It’s called a flier, ya’ll.  2010 Projections:  65/18/80/.280

17. Chris Davis – Only has 11 games at 3rd base so Davis may not have eligibility in your league.  This is a new tier.  This is the last tier and I call it, “Your last chance for some upside.”  See the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Davis’s projections.

18. Jake Fox – Went over my Jake Fox fantasy already.  2010 Projections:  75/24/85/.250

19. Alex Gordon – You know that scene in Notting Hill when Hugh Grant walks through the market and it goes from autumn to spring?  What, not lame enough?  Okay, here’s a lamer example.  You know when Bella is staring out the window in New Moon and the seasons change as the camera goes around her?  Yeah, that’s Alex Gordon staring at his career.  He’ll only be 26 in 2010 and he’s still capable of the upside he hinted at, oh, 4 years ago when he hit 29 homers and stole 22 bases in Double-A and followed that with a 15/14 year with the Royals in 2007, but it’s really getting to be now or never.  2010 Projections:  75/17/85/.270/12

20. Casey McGehee – I went over McGehee’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

20 1/2. Andy LaRoche – This guy needs Troy Dunn to find his upside.  I contemplated leaving LaRoche off entirely because I can’t imagine him putting together a season to make him worthwhile for fantasy, except for stretches when he can be grabbed off of waivers.  2010 Projections:  75/16/70/.270/3

After the top 20 third basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s some guys, but these two stand out:

Chase Headley – First off, I’d draft Headley before LaRoche.  I only placed them in this order because I wanted to highlight Headley.  So consider him highlighted.  Headley can get 25 homers and steal 10 bases.  Will he?  Who am, Nostradumbass?  I don’t know.  But someone who can produce that should be getting more pub than he has.  I’m righting wrongs like a modern day superhero.  Well, not really, but I am wearing a cape.  2010 Projections:  70/20/85/.290/10

Brandon Wood – The Angels trust him at 3rd about as much as The Old Man trusts Chumlee, but they gotta give Wood the keys to the Imperial at some point.  Don’t they?  2010 Projections: 60/25/75/.250/7 <–optimistic, but whatever

The top 10 and 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball are in the bag, along with the top 20 catchers.  Today, Razzballers, we look at the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball.  All this shizz can be found under the 2010 Fantasy Baseball rankings.  This top 20 list of 1st basemen is the opposite of the catchers, it is bursting at the seams like you at a Hometown Buffet.  Speaking of gorging yourself, as I mentioned elsewhere, I want a top 1st baseman on my team in 2010.  Sure, the list is deep, but 10 of these guys will probably be gone by the 4th round.  Do you really want to go to battle with, say, Derrek Lee when someone else has, say, Ryan Howard?  I don’t.  I want to be one of the teams with a top 1st baseman.  This list will get additional 1st basemen added to it in the way of sleeper posts like I added Kendry Morales last year.  As with the other rankings, the first basemen are broken up into tiers with my projections included.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1. Albert Pujols – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Albert Pujols’s projections.

2. Mark Teixeira – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Mark Teixeira’s projections.

3. Miguel Cabrera – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Miguel Cabrera’s projections.

4. Prince Fielder – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Prince Fielder’s projections.

5. Ryan Howard – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Mark Teixeira’s projections.

6. Adrian Gonzalez – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Adrian Gonzalez’s projections.

7. Justin Morneau – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Reynolds.  I call this tier, “Probably as good as the last tier, but their track record’s a little wonky.”  I actually like Morneau this year.  I adverb’d my like because I haven’t liked him in a while.  Probably not since I started this time suck blog.  Why the sudden admiration?  Because I feel like the world has suddenly cooled on him, making him more affordable in drafts.  Of course, my love for him goes in the deep fryer if his back is giving him issues in spring training.  2010 Projections:  95/32/110/.290

8. Kevin Youkilis – Youuuuuuk’s production is very predictable.  In a game where players fluctuate all over the place, there’s value in that predictability.  2010 Projections:  95/27/105/.295/5

9. Mark Reynolds – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Mark Reynolds’s projections.

10. Joey Votto – This is a new tier.  This tier is just Votto.  I call this tier, “Yes, please.”  Here I went over my Votto fantasy for 2010.  2010 Projections:  90/30/105/.305/7

11. Victor Martinez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes until Lee.  I call this tier, “Caveats.”  The caveat with V-Mart is he could be rested more than the usual first baseman since he’ll be catching on most days.  See the top 20 catchers for 2010 fantasy baseball for Victor Martinez’s projections.

12. Pablo Sandoval – It’s hard to not like a chubby guy who goes by the nickname, Kung Fu Panda.  Who doesn’t love pandas?  It’s unpatriotic (in China).  I love pandas so much I want a freakin’ panda dog.  If I had a kid, I’m dye the kid to look like a panda.  So, I do like Pablo Sandoval.  But there’s caveats.  He’s not really a home run hitter.  It would not shock me to see him hit 22 homers in 2010.  Also, his average last year looks to be on the high side.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see a .300 average instead of .330.  I like him, just be careful what you’re expecting.  (Obviously at 3rd base, he’s more enticing.)  2010 Projections:  80/24/95/.315/4

13. Kendry Morales – I still like Kendry for 2010, but there’s some reason to believe 2009 was his career year.  He’s more of a .285 hitter than a .305 hitter.  I don’t entirely believe the power.  He’s more of a 27-plus homer hitter than a 32-plus hitter.  It might be quibbling, but if Kendry lands on the bottom of his potential, is he that different than Cuddyer?  2010 Projections:  80/28/100/.285/3

14. Adam Dunn - SAT question of the day.  From 2006 to 2009, Adam Dunn hit .234, .264, .236, .267, respectively.   In 2010, Adam Dunn will hit A) .238 B) 40 homers C) There is no C.  2010 Projections:  80/40/100/.250

15. Carlos Pena – Last year, Pena’s average was lower than it should’ve been. He’s still only a .250 hitter.  .250 hitters can hit .220 again if the ball doesn’t bounce like it should.  Pena also led the AL in homers.  2010 Projections:  95/37/100/.250

16. Derrek Lee – Derrek Lee had the highest fly ball percentage of his career last year.  Okay, hotshot, now you have to ask yourself, do you think he’s going to continue this in 2010 or do you think he’s going to revert to his career norms outside of 2009?  2010 Projections:  90/25/100/.295

17. Lance Berkman – Hmm… He hit 29 homers in his 2008 season when he was 32-years-old.  At the age of 33, he hit 25.  By the time he’s 40, he’s going to be Juan Pierre.  I wouldn’t expect 30 homers just because you and your brother, Jimbo, grew up watching Berkman hit 30 bombs a year.  Before Canseco started sticking suckas with needles, it was pretty normal to see a decline in players Berkman’s age.  2010 Projections:  70/23/85/.285/3

18. Billy Butler – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Davis.  I call this tier, “Your last chance for some upside, but these guys aren’t slam dunks.”  Last year he hit 51 doubles.  Have you seen the moobs on this guy?  He has to hit a few more of those doubles for homers in 2010, doesn’t he?  I like to think so.  Though I have noticed something of late.  He seems to be turning into a sleeper sell, like Chris Davis last year. Butler still hits lots of ground balls and he needed 672 plate appearances for 21 homers last year.  Don’t go crazy with yourself expecting the world from Butler.  He may end up overrated even if I like him to an extent.  2010 Projections:  85/25/100/.295

19. Garrett Jones – He’s just so old for a 2nd year player that it’s hard to get fully behind him.  He reminds me of Ludwick.  Big splash his rookie year then a fade in the 2nd year.  He obviously could go 30/10, but he can also get exploited over a full season and end up being waiver fodder.  Caveat emptor, for those reading in Latin America.  2010 Projections:  65/25/80/.255/12

20. Chris Davis – Read all about him in my Chris Davis sleeper post.  2010 Projections:  65/28/85/.255/7

21. Michael Cuddyer – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Loney.  I call this tier, “I hope you’re sitting in an exit row.” Cuddyer is a 24 homer, .275 hitter.  Last year was a career year…. And it’s not even that great of a career.  Don’t pay for a career year the following season.  2010 Projections:  85/24/95/.275/5

22. Russell Branyan – Last year was nice, I really don’t see it happening again.  And, if it does happen again from a power standpoint, I wouldn’t expect the average to even be as high as last year’s .251 mark.  2010 Projections:  60/22/70/.240

23. James Loney – It feels like every year Loney is ranked 20th with the promise of more.  This year, I’m ranking him 20th and expecting 20th ranked production.  Whether it’s his ground ball rate or mediocre power, I don’t know, but he’s not getting better.  2010 Projections: 75/15/85/.290/4

After the top 20, there’s lots of names, but two stand out:

Brandon Allen – I went over him in the Brandon Allen fantasy baseball outlook whosie-wiggers.  Has 20 homer power to spare.  Want someone that can surprise and move into the top 15 next year?  Here ya go.  UPDATE:  LaRoche signed with the Diamondbacks.  This is one of those signings where you know the club isn’t thinking, “Yeah! LaRoche makes us a playoff team!” Or, “Yeah!  LaRoche puts bodies in the seats!”  This is one of those moves where you don’t know what the club is thinking.  Play the youngster!  Alas, they’re not going to.  They’re going to play LaRoche.  Adam LaRoche’s 2010 Projections:  70/27/80/.265

Carlos Delgado – UPDATE:  Out for four months.

Just went over the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball and today we give you our top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball.  Then we’ll go over the top 20 catchers for 2010 fantasy baseball then top 20 1st basemen and so on and so forth as we do onto our 2010 Fantasy Baseball rankings as you would want them done onto you.  In the top 10, I battled with maybe one or two spots, but this top 20 that I gave birth to was a true labor of love, battling with myself on just about every spot.  I’m pleased with what I settled on, but I could see an argument made to reshuffle some of these players.  The 2nd round is easily the hardest round to peg.  In some cases, I think I’d prefer the 3rd round to the 2nd round.  Yes, the 3rd round is the new 2nd round.  This will probably need its own post.  As always, tiers are mentioned and my 2010 fantasy baseball projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball:

11. Evan Longoria -  As mentioned in the top 10 rankings post, this continues the previous tier of players.  This tier started at Teixeira and will end at Wright.  Longoria feels like he should be in the Braun and Kemp class of players that could conceivably get better.  The strikeouts aren’t pretty and will hinder his average to an extent, but the power and speed are there.  He ranked above Wright because of his power.  At 3rd base, you want a guaranteed 30 homers more than a guaranteed 15 steals.  2010 Projections:  100/36/115/.280/10

12. Tim Lincecum – 12th was the absolutely latest I was able to rank a guy who has back-to-back seasons of 260 Ks.  Sure, I don’t like taking pitching in the early rounds, but it’s hard to argue with a guy whose FIP was 2.34 and who lowered his walk rate.  The only knock on Lincecum is his lower back issues towards the end of 2009 and his resemblance to k.d. lang.  2010 Projections:  18-5/2.70/1.00/250

13. David Wright – As I mentioned in the opening, this 2nd round is tricky and has a lot to do with who you took in the first round.  If you took A-Rod, then you don’t take Wright.  But imagine pairing Ryan Howard with David Wright.  That’s like pairing Boone’s Strawberry Hill with a chili dog.  That’s a meal fit for a king!  Prior to last year, three of the last four years Wright’s HR/FB rates were above 16 percent.  Last year, he had a home run to fly ball rate of 6.9.  So I’m chalking some of last year up to bad luck.  Now consider he’s still capable of 20 steals and a .300 average.  Even if Metco’s fences stay in the outer boroughs, Wright can be very valuable.  2010 Projections:  100/25/110/.300/17

14. Ian Kinsler – This begins a new tier.  This tier is called, “Why is the 2nd round so tricky this year?”  This tier goes from here to Gonzalez.  I can’t remember a year when I’ve been so legitimately flummoxed with the 2nd round.  Is Kinsler great?  Sure.  Do I feel 100% confident in him?  As about as confident as I would practicing the withdrawal method with Octo-Mom. Kinsler isn’t a great average hitter, but he’s better than the .253 he showed last year.  He’s not a .300 hitter either.  He’s a near lock for 25/25 at 2nd base and that carries a lot of weight.  Is he that different than Brandon Phillips? They’re both six-feet tall, weigh around 200 lbs, injured more times than I’d like and their birthdays are six days apart. Maybe they’re one player pulling The Alex P. Keaton When He Had Two Dates For The Prom And He Had To Keep Switching His Tie trick.  2010 Projections:  110/29/80/.270/34

15. Matt Holliday – I just went over my Holliday fantasy last week so I’m not going to beat Secretariat.  I’ll only say that I don’t think Holliday is necessarily the hitter we saw in the 2nd half times two.  He goes on hot streaks, that’s what last year’s 2nd half was.  In 2006 and 2007 on the Rockies, he hit 10 and 12 homers in the month of September respectively.  In 2005, he hit 15 homers post-All-Star Break and four before.  When the games are on the line for real baseball and H2H, Holliday is there.  Sometimes that’s frustrating with roto.  2010 Projections:  105/28/115/.320/15

16. Troy Tulowitzki – I tried to drop Tulo as low as I could because he’s deriving a lot of his value from his 2009 steals.  As I said at the end of the season last year, “I wish I believed in all of the steals he racked up this year, but his total is about three times the most he’s ever recorded in any season of professional ball.  Still, he’s good, and can get a bit better on the power side.”  And that’s me quoting me!  The reason why I couldn’t drop him any lower is because of his position, his park, his age and his power.  Remember if you draft him, he doesn’t start playing until May at the earliest.  2010 Projections:  95/35/105/.280/12

17. Grady Sizemore – I already went over in my Grady Sizemore 2010 fantasy baseball post-a-ma-thing-whosies.  After his girlfriend revealed photos of Grady visually detailing his sports hernia recovery, he revealed he’d be ready for the start of 2010.  I believe him.  2010 Projections:  110/27/80/.270/25

18. Carl Crawford – Every time I looked at Crawford, I kept thinking to myself, where’s Ellsbury?  They should be right next to each other, shouldn’t they?  After all, their names together sound like a law firm.  Crawford benefits from just a bit more power, but his knees are getting creaky and we rely on his speed for a lot of his value.  Honestly, I’m hoping he gets off to a hot start and I can tell you to sell him at the end of May.  2010 Projections: 110/14/65/.290/50

19. Adrian Gonzalez – The 20th pick is not an easy one.  I pieced together different draft scenarios with glue and old issues of TV Guide and it spelled out A-Gonz.  If my fantasy baseball ransom note meant Alex Gonzalez, I apologize.  I just can’t get past that I want a 1st baseman in the first few rounds.  And, most importantly, I want a guy I can rely on.  Votto is great, but he probably won’t sniff 35+ homers, Morneau is fine but his power and health are wonky, Carlos Pena is fine, but he’s a .250 hitter going on a .230 one.  Obviously, if you own Fielder, Tex or Howard, you’re not taking Gonzalez.  I think last season was Gonzalez’s power peak, but it was still solid.  He should more or less maintain it.  One thing to be aware of is his involuntarily climbing walk rate.  That’s what hitting behind Sub Standard and in front of Nadir Bupkis will do to you.  2010 Projections:  90/38/100/.280

20. Jimmy Rollins – Rollins didn’t really do anything wrong in 2009.  Sure, he had a bad average.  But that wasn’t his fault.  He was 40 points off his career BABIP.  He’s not a .290 hitter, but he’s not a .250 hitter either.  Even with that terrible average, he scored 100 runs.  Unlike Benjamin Button, he’s not getting any younger so I think the steals will continue to decline, but not noticeably for 2010.  2010 Projections:  110/20/65/.275/28

After the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but here’s three big names that were purposely omitted:

Joe Mauer – Just went over the overrated Mauer and Mark Reynolds overrated posts.  But I felt that I needed to address the two elephants in the room again.  Mauer’s HR/FB rate was through the roof last year.  In 2008, he hit 139 fly balls and 9 homers.  In 2009, 137 fly balls and 28 homers.  There’s no way he hits 28 homers again.  Then throw in the wear and tear he takes at his position and how he’s already battled more injuries than the “merely a flesh wound” guy.  Then throw in he’s tops at a weak position.  I.e., is there that much difference between him and Napoli?  Sure, on average and Runs.  Not much elsewhere.  See catcher, punt catcher.  2010 Projections:  100/20/85/.330/3

Mark Reynolds – Guys (and two girl readers), this is 2010.  Don’t draft for 2009.  Reynolds had an incredible year last year and hit .187 in September.  What if he hits .187 in April and June?  You’re gonna be looking to start a midseason fantasy baseball league cause your preseason one got bungled.  2010 Projections:  85/35/95/.250/12

Jose Reyes – Wait, so he’s washed up at the age of 26?  So he went from a top three pick to out of the top 20 because he was injured last year?  C’mon.  This isn’t about last year.  Sure, he was a miserable prick last year for getting injured and ruining your fantasy team.  How dare he!  But that was last year.  Now this year, he has a something roid… Oh, thyroid.  Right.  It’s not great that he’s starting the year on the DL, but Mauer did it last year and A-Rod and Utley…  It’s a long season, if you can get Reyes at a discount, go for it.  2010 Projections:  105/11/55/.285/45

Guess what, fellas and two girl readers?  It ain’t last year no more — that’s a double negative and ain’t ain’t a word.  Eat it, English teachers!  So it’s with much regret that I must tell you you’re not going to get value for Mark Reynolds in 2010 if you have to draft him where he’s being drafted.  Don’t draft your 2010 fantasy baseball team thinking you’re going to right all the wrongs you made last year.  It doesn’t work that way.  You’ll just be compounding your errors.  Anyone who’s ever been in a casino knows what I’m talking about.  You watch someone make a fortune at blackjack, craps, keno, whatever and you think to yourself, “Ah, man, I should’ve sat down.”  Then you do sit down and lose.  That’s you and the gamble is Mark Reynolds.  You missed the boat.  Don’t try and make up for past mistakes.

There’s something else at work here.  Something no one wants to talk about.  Fantasy baseball ‘perts are afraid of you.  You, the reader.  Everywhere you look people are telling you Reynolds is a top third baseman.  They’re telling you he’s a top third baseman because they screwed up last year and they don’t want to screw up again.  They think there will be a mutiny if you don’t see rankings that make sense compared to everyone else.  Finally, they underestimate you.  They think you only look at last year’s stats and you want the next year’s rankings to compare favorably to them.  It’s why everyone (but me) was telling you to draft Josh Hamilton last year.  No one wanted to rock the Josh Hamilton boat.  (Actually, I like Hamilton this year, but that’s for a another post.) There’s so much “What has he done for me lately?” in fantasy baseball that you can exploit it if you’re aware of it.  People have great years all the time, doesn’t mean they will have a great year again the following year.

There was a reason I told you to draft Reynolds last year and it had as much to do with where he was being drafted as what he could do.  Mark Reynolds is not a 1st, 2nd, 3rd or really even a 4th rounder.  He’s definitely being overrated right now for 2010 fantasy baseball.  Is anyone that is drafting him early in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts actually looking at his numbers?  He struckout 223 times last year.  He hit .187 in September.  What if he hits .187 in April?  You gonna be happy about drafting him in the first four rounds of 2010?  Doode’s a bad luck year away from hitting .225.  What if he only steals 15 bases and hits 34 homers while batting .250?  Sounds terrific…for a guy you draft in the 7th round.  Not the 3rd round.  Stop the madness.  Please.