Fantasy Baseball Advice

With Wakefield headed to the DL with a bad back (can’t he throw his knuckleball while sitting down?), Clay Buchholz will step into the Sawx rotation.  In 99 innings of Triple-A, Buchholz had a line of 2.36/.98 and 89 Ks.  His walks were down this year in the minors, though he did walk 3 in his only major league start this year vs. the Blue Jays.  Buchholz should be owned in all leagues, 10 team or deeper.  If he pitches well vs. the Rangers (though I wouldn’t start him in all formats), he may become even better trade bait for your team.  I doubt Buchholz stays in the rotation the rest of the year and, even if he does, he had a 6.75 ERA last year.  I’d imagine this year you’re looking at around a 4 ERA.  Your ability to sell on Buchholz may close quicker than you can incorrectly spell his last name.  In keepers, I’d hold tight.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Psyche!  A bit of housekeeping before we get into today’s roundup.  Razzball’s Fantasy football leagues are forming and we’ve unveiled our Fantasy Football Team Name Generator (with some additional categories that weren’t on the Fantasy Baseball Team Name Generator).  Okay, now for the roundup…

Roy Halladay – J.P. Ricciardi says the ace must be traded by July 28th or he won’t be moved.  As for why July 29th-31st wouldn’t work, Ricciardi cited airings of Top Chef Masters, then reruns of CSI: Miami and Bones.

Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu went FUBAR into the center field wall.  The Mariners are saying he’s day-to-day.  I have to assume he’s a-day-or-two-or-three-days.  The newspaper reporting this, The News Tribune, said when you saw the photo of The Big FraGu on the ground “you had to be absolutely freaking out.” Direct quote.  Hey, I’m no newspaper writer, but when did “absolutely freaking out” become AP style?  I blame Woodward and Bernstein.  That’s right, the guy who wrote “gloryholz” in his title is calling someone out for “absolutely freaking out.”  Deal with it!

Wladimir Balentien – HR yesterday filling in for the InJured FraGu.  If Balentien gets some time, then he’s worth a look in AL-Only leagues or leagues that require you to have one player with the name Wladimir.

Jack Hannahan – 2 HRs.  He’s doing much better since he was demoted from the job of Nats closer.

Rick Porcello – 5 IP, 5 ER.  I know you ordered raw, but he’s done.  Also, Leyland’s saying he’s going to pull the plug on him to keep his innings down.

Braden Looper – 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 K.  Good for Looper, but I feel bad for the guy who lugged all those cardboard Ks to the game.

John Lannan – Shutout vs. Guess who.  Hint the Padres were facing the Marlins.  Still nothing?  C’mon, the Metropolitans!

Oliver Perez – 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 BBs.  Perez is a pitching dynamo.  (Dynamo, as defined by Merriam-Webster’s, is a generator, especially one for producing direct current.  A dynamo is also rarely useful in modern days.)

Miguel Montero – HR yesterday as he bats .583 in the last 7 games and .380 in July.  He might be Pipp’ing Snyder.

Ervin Santana – 6 IP, 5 ER vs. the peasant Royals.  Belch.

Erick Aybar – 7-for-9 in the doubleheader.  Hitting .469 so far in July.  Johnny Olson, let’s see what’s behind schmohawk MI door number three… It’s Erick Aybar!  I picked him up in a 12 team league.  I suggest you do too.

Everth Cabrera – Speaking of MI schmohawks.  Steals aren’t worth this much to me.  I dropped him for the aforementioned Aybar.

Max Scherzer – 4 IP, 4 ER, 6 Ks.  Wait, I know that line!  It’s Clayton Kershaw, right?  Wow, great impersonation, Scherzer.

Brian McCann – Hit his 10th homer yesterday.  Has a 33/10/46/.305/3 line on the year.  Member when you wanted to get rid of him because he was getting his eyes checked for two weeks?  Yeah, you.  Couldn’t be?  Then who?

Yunel Escobar – 2-for-4, 1 RBI.  He’s as hot as Erick Aybar (<–actually a compliment).

Sergio Mitre – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  If he gives that line every time out and gets the Win for the Yanks, they’ll be more than happy.  You should not be.

Joe Blanton – 7 IP, 1 ER.  If you told me in March, I’d not only own Blanton, but I’d be starting him at home and be happy about it, I would’ve called you a liar.  *phone rings*  Hello?  Yes, this is Grey… Who?  This is the Time Traveler’s Wife?  You told me in March I’d own Blanton?  Liar!

Jayson Werth – Hit his 21st home run yesterday to win the game in the… blah blah blah… You don’t care who wins, do you?  Werth’s on his way to a monster season.  As George Lucas tells his ILM peeps, put the emphasis on the monster.

Jimmy Rollins – HR yesterday, batting .375 in July.  I’m not going to tell you how many times I told you in June to buy Rollins.

Brett Cecil – 7 IP, 0 ER, 9 Ks.  Honestly, he should be owned and talked about more, but there’s only so many letters I can type per day.  (About 12,700 +/- 20)  Cecil has solid stuff and the Ks aren’t a fluke.  He gets the Rays next (pass!), but he should get the A’s and the O’s after that, assuming everything stays quid pro bono unum.  He’s a decent spot start for those two. (Hey, sometimes to get the good starts, you gotta look ahead.)

Jed Lowrie – 1-for-3, 0 Runs and 0 RBIs.  T-Minus one day until I drop him.  Better hide under your desk.

Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 1 ER. Daily Roundup Mad-Libs, And the  ________ rolls on.

Mark DeRosa – Hit his first and second homers as a Card.  The trade is finally paying off!  Wait, the Cards lost.

Homer Bailey – 2 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  If there’s such a thing as a minor league fantasy baseball league that counts only minor league stats, I’d hold Bailey.  Everywhere else, belch.

Manny Ramirez – Left after being hit by a Homer Bailey pitch.  Good to see Bailey not happy with just pissing off his owners.  Manny is said to be day-to-day.

Andrew Bailey – Given up runs in his last two appearances and he’s suffering from a sore knee.  Save vultures activate… In the form of Michael Wuertz.

Jonny Gomes – HR yesterday, cause that’s what he do.

Bobby Jenks – 1 IP, 2 ER and now has given up earned runs in four of his last five outings.  I’d own Linebrink if you have room.  Something might be jenky with Bobby.

John Danks – Will miss a start with a blister issue.  He pointedly said it was a blister, not a cold sore.

So this is a fun story for you.  When I was a kid, I played 2nd base.  Was one of those pesky slap hitters that annoyed the pitchers.  I led the way for Orlando Hudson.  Call me Orlando Oldson.  At the age of twelve, I never struckout once.  All season.  That’s how Oldson did.  Then when I turned thirteen, I sucked.  I couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn.  If they didn’t have to play every kid, I would’ve never seen any PT.  At one point, I had a friend promise to throw the ball right down the middle just so I could get one hit for the year.  And that was what I finished with.  One hit.  So wha’ happened?  Where did Oldson disappear to?  Well, going into that year, I discovered girls.  And all of their fleshy parts.  But I also needed glasses.  Who was I?  Chris Sabo?  Chris Sabo got laid once.  And he paid for it.  So I took the easy way out and never wore my glasses.  My baseball career paid for it big time.  But I touched a boob!  This brings me to Brian McCann.  He’s supposed to be returning.  Stat, doc.  You know what catchers need?  Rest.  You know what McCann’s had a lot of?  Mmm-hmm.  See where I’m going with this?  Of course you do.  You gots smarts!  So McCann had a terrible first month of April.  Tizz-errible.  Well, he couldn’t see like Oldson and his luck (BABIP) was in the shizzer too.  Now as long as he’s not embarrassed to wear glasses around Frenchy, he should be fine.  So potatoes to chips, he’s still a guy that can hit 20 HRs and bat .290.  Buy, snitches!  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy and sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Josh Whitesell – Starting the Buys with a -Sell?  Oh, Grey! Lots of Ks in the minors for Whitesell, but also a solid OBP.  Did someone say Dunn?  No?  I thought I heard that.  No?  Good, because that would be oversellling -Sell.

Chris Coghlan – I love the ‘lins!  I really do.  They have no problem promoting anyone.  So Coghlan can play at the hot corner, 2nd base and the outfield.  My guess is he’ll primarily see time at 3rd base so they can bench the guy who’s playing there now that is actually a pinch runner.  He could spell Maybin and Uggla on occasion.  Coghlan, besides having the weirdest name to spell outside of Buehrle, can steal bases and has a bit of power.  Think 15 HRs, 25 steals.  The steals could come easier at first.  He’s a must pursue in NL-Only.  But because his position is shallow, I’d immediately look at him in deep mixed leagues.

Juan Pierre – SAGNOF!

Michael Bourn – See 1/18th of an inch above.

Alexei Ramirez – Now you can get him for even cheaper as his owners begin to panic at The (Jayson) Nix Experiment™.  I still believe he’ll come around.

Elvis Andrus – Has been batting 2nd recently.  That’s a boon to his value.  (A boon is a positive, but Andrus is in the Buy section so context clues should help you there.)

Chris Ray – He will eventually lead the Orioles in saves.  Sure, that may only be 12 saves…

Andrew Bailey – The A’s are saying he’s going to be looked at for the closer role.  Honestly, you don’t even need to know if he’s any good to pick him up if he could be the closer, but he is good.

Mark Melancon – Mo’s Better Meaty Meat Shoulder is hurting.  Melancon could see some saves short term if Mariano’s hurting. (UPDATE:  In a bizarre move, the Yanks optioned Melancon to the minors right after this was posted.  Guess they have Mo faith than I.)

John Grabow - Capps has a minor elbow issue.  Are pitchers ever okay when they have anything wrong with their elbow?  I see a trip to the Disgraceful List in Capps’s future.

Scott Hairston – Hitting 3rd for the Padres.  Faint endorsement for Hairston, major indictment of the Padres.

Jesus Guzman – With Aurilla and Ishikawa’s careers in the toilet and nobody flushing, how long until Guzman floats to the surface?

Jimmy Rollins – Sitting on a 13/1/7/.213/1 line.  Wheels have come off Rollins, fo’ diggity.  Unless he has a mysterious ankle injury that he’s not talking about, he’ll get better.

SELL

Jair Jurrjens – His K/BB rate is terrible, and his ERA will regress. But ya’ll didn’t think Jar-Jar would give you a 2.00 ERA all year anyway, did you?  Don’t trade him for a bag of boiled peanuts, but I’d explore options.  As they don’t say, the best is not yet to come.

Scott Kazmir – It seems like he’s headed for Junksville.  In my top 20 starter for 2009 post, I put Kazmir in a tier of pitchers I would never own.  Unfortunately, I co-drafted with Rudy and have Kazmir on one team.  *shakes fist at sky*  Rudy!

Jeff Weaver – Make sure when looking at trade offers you’re not thrown by the ol’ Je. Weaver trick.

Omar Infante – Hey, he’s playing! But, hey, he sucks.  Oh.

Scott Richmond – If you can pawn him off for any piece whatsoever, do it.  He’s really not this good.  In fact, there’s a good chance he’s going to be awful.

Chad Tracy – With the recall of Josh Whitesell, Tracy’s time is getting pinched.

Chris Dickerson – Losing time to Laynce Nix.  Wow, this was a big week in the Nix household.  BTW, what’s with the Y’s in their first names?  Layme.

Dallas Braden – Has been solid so far with a 2.50 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.  Whoa.  1.39 WHIP is smoke.  Yup, there’s a ‘too many walks’ fire burning in 3 of the last 4 starts.  A bottle of Liquid Paper may get dumped on his ERA any start now.

Manny Ramirez – A female fertility drug?  Even as he breaks our hearts, he makes us smile.  Now don’t sell him too cheaply, but I’d explore options.  Remember, by the time Manny returns, he may be in his 2nd trimester.

You know what burns me up?  Fire? Yes, random italicized voice, but something else too.  Three weeks ago, ESPN threw out trash like this, “Hamels could be one of the top-5 starters in most leagues now that questions about his durability and moxie have passed. Invest with confidence.”  Three weeks ago?!  Now, today they say, “Given (Hamels’s) injury history and the combination of an increased workload and long season, Hamels has a significant amount of risk when you consider his lofty place among the elite starting pitchers on the draft board this spring.”  That’s so annoying.  Almost as annoying as Bud Selig now getting upset at people who took steroids.  Like you didn’t know, Bud.  C’mon!  The other day I talked with Rudy — we talk, ya’ll! — and I was saying to him there’s one pitcher I probably won’t own this year.  That’s Cole Hamels.  The innings increase worried me.  The K/9 dropping in 2008 had me a bit buggered.  I liked that he gave up less home runs, but it wasn’t enough.  I wouldn’t own him.  On February 1st, I said, “(Even considering the good things about Hamels, it) does not mean he’ll be on any of my teams in 2009.”  In my top 100 post, I wrote, “Even Philly phans are worried about the extra innings. “  And that’s me quoting and quoting and linking to myself!  Now there’s word of Hamels having a sore elbow.  This is bad news.  I can’t stress this enough.  Okay, maybe I could’ve cap that last sentence, but you don’t need me to yell at you, do you?  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training for fantasy baseball:

J.R. Towles – There goes that opp.  Pudge signed a one year deal with the Astros.  Wait, what about Humberto Something Or Other?!  He had a future, I tell ya.

Ivan Rodriguez – Do all the kids out there know Pudge isn’t meant to be an ironic nickname?  Just because the Astros signed this schmohawk doesn’t mean you should.  Ever.  He’s C to the Rap.

Ryan Braun – Same injury that slowed in September has returned.  I think he’ll be fine, but it’s enough to knock him below Miggy and Sizemore on your draft sheets.  Wait, I already him after them on my top 100.  Hey, I’m a fortune teller!

Manny Ramirez – Aggravating his hamstring while aggravating his owners.  He’ll play fine when he wants to.  Read:  July, it has a great ending.

Matt Lindstrom – Seriously, get on the Leo Nunez bandwagon before someone else does.  You think this is nothing, but you thought it was nothing when Jon Rauch replaced Chad Cordero last year.

Justin Duchscherer – Let’s see if we got this right, Dooksheer is hurt?  No way!  I think he might start 5 games all year.  I’m not exaggerating.  I said this more or less over a month ago in the top 60 starters post.  Berry might have ESPN, but I got ESP.  Natch!

Vernon Wells – Good ol’ VW thinks he’ll be ready on Opening Day.  Here’s what he’ll say sometime around May 15th, “It’s just a mild strain.  I’ll be back in 15 days.”  Here’s what he’ll say two weeks after that, “It’s not healing how I would’ve hoped.  I think I should be back by the All-Star Break.”  After the All-Star Break, Ricciardi goes on record with, “We hope to have Vernon back by August.”  In August, Vernon returns for a final solid month before pulling his oblique.

Joey Devine – Devine’s nursing something… Not a baby giraffe from what I can gather.  Brad Ziegler seems to have this locked up for Opening Day.

Huston Street/Manny Corpas – It may come down to the final days to decide the closer.  I think Corpas ends up with more saves on the year because Street will get injured even if he secures the job.  In other news, Billy Beane has some AIG stock he’s trying to unload.

Jeff Samardzija – He’s done with that whole starting business.  Until Harden gets hurt.  May!  On the for realz, I wouldn’t own Samardzija in any league.  Not right now at least.

Shawn Hill – Like a two year old’s poo, Hill’s looking solid so far.  I’m telling you, if he can stay healthy he could be a huge sleeper.  But you do what you do.  What, I’m gonna beg?  Nah, Charlie.  Not me.

Rob Neyer put Torre’s potential lineup as this:

(S) Rafael Furcal, SS
(R) Russell Martin, C
(L) Andre Ethier, RF
(R) Manny Ramirez, LF
(L) James Loney, 1B
(R) Matt Kemp, CF
(S) Orlando Hudson, 2B
(R) Casey Blake, 3B

That, folks, is not a long shot.  Torre loves lefty-righty combos like I love Pepperoni Combos.  Damon, Jeter, Abreu, A-Rod…  Always separated guys like O’Neill and Tino Martinez.  This is how Bernie Williams became a #4 hitter.  So let’s assume the above lineup is what it is.  Matt Kemp is now your 2009 Los Angeles City of Los Angeles Dodgers number six hitter.  How does this effect him for fantasy baseball?

Matt Kemp might be hurt for Runs now in the sixth spot, but he’ll be better for RBIs and he’ll have more opportunity to steal.  I don’t see his value taking a big hit if the above lineup comes to fruition.  Not to mention, this may not be the lineup.  Let’s say, Furcal gets injured, Hudson moves up to 1.  Or Martin and Kemp switch and then Kemp gets more Runs and less RBIs.  Or Manny hurts his neck on the Wild Toad ride at Disneyland and Kemp moves to 4.  Then Blake squeezes into two, Martin drops to eight because Torre thinks a catcher should bat there and Andre Ethier, who’s neither good for power or speed — let’s call him Andre Neithier, isn’t a number a number three and moves to 7 and Hudson moves up.  OR SOMETHING?!

In the end, the Dodgers lineup is not only stacked, but is extremely flexible.  It’ll give Torre and Lasorda something to think about on Wednesday pasta night.  All this bodes well for Kemp.  So no fear for anyone, except, well… Pierre will hit 10th during T-Ball games.

In 2009, the ESPN fantasy baseball rankings were found inside Matthew Berry’s boob-shaped ice cubes and were later thawed out.  These rankings were then transcribed by an intern who had nothing for breakfast but a Bloody Mary that was heavy on the Tabasco.  Anyway, let’s look at a few choice selections in the top 30 in the ESPN fantasy baseball rankings:

15. Dustin Pedroia – Two ahead of Chase Utley in their rankings.  I already put Pedroia in the overrated fantasy baseball category.  Listen to PE’s Don’t Believe the Hype as ESPN’s fossil fuels drain the rest of the fantasy baseball world of its brain matter.

20. Ryan Howard – Last year his average was .251.  This year they project him for .251.  How convenient!  ESPN’s rankings are famous for their Monday morning quarterbacking.  If Howard hits .265 this year, does anyone want to bet me ESPN projects a .265 +/- .002 for 2010?   I love how they claim he’s a two category guy THEN (caps for emphasis and for those reading from across the room) project him for 100+ Runs.   That makes him a three category guy.  Also, you can count on three fingers how many 1st basemen give you steals and those 1st basemen don’t give you anywhere near 50 HRs and 140 RBIs.

21. Ichiro Suzuki – ESPN’s projections are 104/8/53/33/.314.  Hmm… Isn’t he guilty of the same thing they’re getting down on Howard about?  Oh, wait, they do have Ichiro one slot lower than Howard….  My bad!

29./30. Manny Ramirez/Evan Longoria – ESPN says about Manny, “Manny should continue to bring the fantasy goodness,” and they project him for 92/32/107/.319/2.  ESPN says about Longoria, “Don’t be afraid of the hype.”  They project him for 98/36/113/.272/10.  With those projections for a 3rd baseman, it makes perfect sense to rank him behind a potentially unmotivated outfielder and ten slots behind Ichiro. /sarcasm

I’m going to stop here before my ulcer flares up.  The ESPN fantasy baseball rankings are your grandfather’s fantasy baseball rankings.  They are out of touch.  They try and tell you what they think their mass audience wants to hear.  They are not telling you what you need to know.