Fantasy Baseball Advice

CC Sabathia left his start with biceps tightness.  Or is it bicep?  Hmm…  Either way, it’s not great to hear about an arm issue with your fantasy ace.  Right now they’re saying no tests are even necessary.  Give me two hundred CCs of a White Russian and I’m asking this, you pay one hundred trillion dollars for a player and then you don’t send him for tests when he hurts his bicep(s)?  Are they joking?  Seriously, is this Candid Camera?  I thought I saw my Adam Lambert poster’s eyes move.  Is there a camera behind there?  Send me a signal, throw me a line.  Hopefully, tests aren’t necessary because it’s so obviously not a problem.  They don’t need to administer tests for how Sabathia feels about his new home park, The Jetstream.  To the left, to the left… Now, up, baby, up… He has a 3.99 ERA at home and 3.35 away.  His 6 K/9 is more troubling.  That would be the lowest mark of his career.  Even last year in April when he was struggling, he was K’ing more than one batter per inning.  Hopefully in the 2nd half of the year he can rearrange the girth and makes things right.  (Fun with anagrams!)  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Disgraceful List just got one more as the Sawx made room for Smoltz.  Neither funny nor that insightful, but you’d think there would be some kind of rule by the MLB that teams can’t just DL someone because they’re ineffective.

Ryan Howard – In and out of the hospital with a fever.  Phillies doctors said he’d be fine, he just ate a quart of ice cream too fast and his body temperature was trying to overcompensate.

Carlos Beltran – Going for an MRI on Monday for his knee even though he complained days ago and played on Sunday.  Um, okay.  Supposedly he only has pain when he decelerates abruptly.  Here’s an idea, slide!

Endy Chavez – Out for the season so Transylvania’s favorite son, Wladimir Balentien, should get the starts.  Now the Mariners just need all of their major league and minor league catchers to hurt themselves so they have to play Jeff Clement.

Casey McGehee – HR yesterday.  Has 10 homer power, but right now he’s scorching hot, batting over .400 for the last week.  He’s worth a flier over the schmohawk behind door number 3.  For what it’s worth, last week I dropped Kennedy for McGehee in one league.

Chris Coghlan – 3-for-4, 3 Runs.  According to ESPN, Coghlan’s only owned in 3.1% of leagues.  Actually, I kinda understand that.  In June, he has 1 homer and 3 steals.  Excuse me while I burp.

Don Kelly – 2-for-4 and batting .417 since his callup.  He’s a minor league journeyman who has some light speed.  Not speed of light.  Totally different thing.

Aaron Harang – 7 IP, 3 ER, 7 Ks.  It’s like 2008 never happened.  But, you know what?  I remember it.

David Ortiz – HR yesterday.  Note from the author (me).  This was sent in by a longtime reader, Tarasco’s Secret Stash, “Ortiz’s swing this year has been interesting to watch evolve lately, and it’s finally clicking. Dave Magadan first tried the Drew back-shoulder tap as his first timing correction, but that didn’t really seem to get him out of his funk. Papi was rocking that timing mechanism for a couple weeks in May, until they started trying his current approach, which is much quieter and more vertical. He’s setting his hands smoothly now, Hideki Matsui style, instead of waggling the bat or cocking his wrists, and he’s instead leaving the hands up higher and the wrists more loaded. That’s letting him dip slightly to load his weight back while keeping the wrists much more steady, and it’s keeping his swing plane on the ball better. His hip rotation is still strong, which is the best sign for him going forward. He’s able to turn through balls as well as years past, and he seems to have rediscovered his bat path over the last couple weeks. He’s drilling the ball to left center at Fenway of late.”

Dallas Braden – 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  Solid fill-in for this week without Peavy.  I’m sticking for now and going with him in Oakland vs. the Rox in his next start.  If I were feeling particularly lucky, I’d roll the dice with Cahill (vs. SF, COL) or Garrett Olson (vs. Padres, LAD) this week.  I’m not feeling lucky, but some of youse may be.

Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks.  The Wandwagon rolls again.

Ricky Romero – 7 IP, 2 ER.  Nice start vs. the Nats.  I’d take a flier on him for a fifth to sixth fantasy starter.

Lyle Overbay – Hit his 9th homer yesterday with 5 RBIs.  You’re showing Derrek Lee and the dealer’s showing Lyle Overbay.  That’s a push.

Khalil Greene – Two games, two homers.  Now that he has his emotional baggage safely stored in his overhead compartment, he’s mollywopping the ball.  Worth a flier for cheap power at your MI spot.

Gil Meche – 3 1/3 IP, 9 ER.  It was the Cards, man.  The Cards.  Pitch around Pujols (who had 6 RBIs in this game).  Pitch. Around. Him.  Come on!

Michael Cuddyer – HR yesterday.  Hitting .444 over his last week with 2 homers, which is also known as Joe Mauer every week.

Geovany Soto – HR yesterday.  Clearly he’s found his power stroke with 3 homers this month, but he’s still batting .238 in June and only has 6 RBIs all month.

Randy Wells – 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  Got the Win after 6 starts when he could’ve easily been victorious.  I’m still not endorsing him past matchups and his next matchup’s kinda eh.

Kevin Millwood – 7 IP, 2 ER, 10 Ks.  Finally listened to Nolan Ryan as he emphasized the importance of the K.

Chris Davis – Over the weekend, Davis became the fastest man ever to 100 Ks.  Maybe Nolan Ryan should be careful about to who he’s emphasizing the importance of the K.

Troy Tulowitzki – 3-for-3.  His average has been on the rise all monthowitzki.

Matt Holliday – 0-for-4, batting .269 on the year with 8 homers.  Where’s that blogger/guy/doode who in the preseason said Holliday just needed to get familiar with Oakland then it would all start clicking?  Is he familiar yet?

Jeremy Accardo – Left yesterday’s game after tweaking something on his right side.  Eddie Vedder says, “Jeremy’s broken…”

Because Casey Kotchman is most noteworthy (in my eyes) for having the longest known case of mononucleosis, it makes sense he’d be considered a sleeper.  Only, not necessarily, a fantasy baseball sleeper.  More like a Prince Valium one.  After the trade to the Braves last year, Casey Kotchman hit 2/20/.237.  “Write him off as a once interesting prospect that never reached his potential,” says some random crotchety old baseball scout.  I hear ya, random old baseball crotchety scout, but I find something making me keep come back to him.  Sorta like my man-wood for Alex J. Gordon.  Maybe I can’t let a bad thing die.  This would explain every previous relationship that I’ve ever been in prior to the current one.  So what is it that excites me about Casey Kotchman in 2009 fantasy baseball?

In 373 ABs for the Angels last year, Kotchman hit 12/54/.287 before taking a dump with the Tomahawks.  Now whether his numbers plunged with the Braves because he wasn’t happy with the trade or because he wasn’t familiar with the NL pitchers, I’m not sure.  For someone who lost nine months of his life to a kissing disease that high schoolers rebound from after two weeks, anything is possible.  Either way, he is more of the hitter we saw pre-All-Star Break with the Angels than he was on the Braves.  He had a .325 average in the minors with Jason Kendall-esque power.  Kotchman pounds the ball into the ground way too much to be any sort of real power threat. (And he doesn’t have the speed to make all of those grounders worthwhile.)  I’d put Kotchman’s 2009 projections being near 70/16/85/.285/2.  Numbers that make him very comparable to James Loney or other first baseman sleeper Kendry Morales.  I know, it’s not a ringing endorsement, but considering Loney is near the top 20 for 1st basemen and Kotchman is being drafted with the likes of Kevin Millar and Lyle Overbay, Kotchman has sleeper potential.  So, let’s qualify how excited I am about Casey Kotchman.  Not really that excited.  If Mark Grace and Sean Casey had a baby, it’d look like Casey Kotchman.  How’s that for the least enthusiastic sleeper post ever?  You’re welcome!

One of the greater joys of fantasy baseball is the satisfaction of properly valuing a player – e.g., selecting the right 1st round pick, getting a ‘steal’ in a later round, avoiding a guy who you know is going to have a bad year, trading a guy right before he tanks, etc. But while there are rewards in avoiding or trading overvalued players, the greater rewards are in retaining and acquiring the most successful players.This reward system is one-sided. In investing, you can short-sell stocks that you know are going to tank and be rewarded. But if you KNEW Jason Bay was going to suck in 2007, all you could do was avoid him. What kind of reward is that?

This inequity is at the heart of a new fantasy baseball game that we at this FLB Blog are christening as Razzball. Razz is a card game similar to Texas Hold-em where the object is to have the worst hand possible. The objective of Razzball is to compile the worst fantasy baseball team possible.

HOW DOES IT WORK?
The rosters are the same as currently found in standard MLB leagues: 13 hitters (C / 1B / 2B / SS / 3B / 5 OF / Corner IF / Middle IF / UTIL) and 9 pitchers.

The stats are a bit different as there is a need to both reward below-average performance while making sure this isn’t achieved by avoiding active players. Since the aim is to be able to use a Yahoo or Sportsline free league for Razzball, we stuck with statistics that are generally available in those services:

Hitters:
AB (High = 10 points)
R (Low)
HR (Low)
RBI (Low)
K (High)
AVG (Low)

Minimum – 5200 team ABs (avg of 400 per position). Any ABs short will receive the pro-rated stats of 550 ABs at .320 AVG / 120 R / 35 HR / 120 RBI / 50 K

Pitchers:
IP (High = 10 points)
L (High)
HR allowed (High)
ERA (High)
WHIP (High)
K (Low)

Maximum – 180 starts

For hitters, R / HR / RBI / AVG are the core offensive Razzball stats. The lowest in each category gets 10 points, highest 1 point.

Since this could conceivably be done via inactive players, several countermeasures are in place. ABs rewards teams that use active players (Outs would be better but it is an unavailable stat in standard online leagues). Strikeouts also serve as a reward for keeping an active roster while reflecting the least valuable action a hitter can contribute (Ok, GIDP is worse but roll w/ it). The minimum of 5200 ABs penalizes any team that falls short of a 400 AB per position minimum.

One exception that was made vs. traditional fantasy hitting stats was the removal of SB. This has always been an admittedly overrated stat in FLB (vis-à-vis actual value). We considered using Caught Stealing but it’s rather unpredictable and low in frequency. In addition, removing SB makes it easier to draft OFs as speed-only guys like Juan Pierre and Willy Taveras become attractive high AB, low HR/RBI guys.

For pitchers, L / ERA / WHIP / K serve as the core pitching Razzball stats. Losses makes for a great replacement over wins as it rewards playing bad active pitchers. ERA/WHIP/K are similar to R/HR/RBI/AVG in that teams are rewarded for poorest performance (highest for ERA and WHIP, lowest for K’s). IP is added as a countermeasure and HR serves as a mirror to offensive Ks (the least valuable action a pitcher can contribute). The maximum of 180 starts is consistent with many leagues and protects against an extreme amount of pitcher flighting.

The exception vs. traditional pitching stats is the absence of Saves. We considered blown saves but this is somewhat unpredictable and VERY low in frequency. So it’s likely that many closers will not be drafted – rather, there will be the greatest demand for middle relievers that pitch a lot of poor quality innings with, hopefully, some of those games on the line (to accrue Losses). We also considered using BB instead of low Ks but felt that was already factored into WHIP.

We’re still undecided on whether roster changes can be made on a daily or weekly basis but we’re leaning towards weekly.

STRATEGY 101
Since Razzball is such a new concept, it’s really a blank slate for strategy. No collective wisdom over years and years of play and analysis. No publications or ‘experts’ to rely on. Should make for an exciting inaugural season.

As with regular FLB, strategy is dictated by the depth in performance at each position. Since MLB leagues tend to use about half the starting player pool, the depth in positions is nearly inverse so that the lowest valuable contributor (or Best Available Option as we’ve opined here and here) is very similar in both leagues – think Luis Gonzalez for OF (.277 / 74 R / 16 HR / 68 RBI).

Also similar to regular FLB, predicting pitching proves to be more unpredictable than hitting. In fact, the most valuable Razzball starter of 2007 was drafted in most regular leagues (Scott Olsen).

This points to an additional factor that makes for a very exciting variable – the chances that a below average performing player remains in the lineup / staff. The worst enemies are a player’s low upside, antsy coaches, contending teams, and unforgiving local media. Your best friends? A player’s high upside, smug coaches, floundering teams, and ineffectual local media.

Since there are only so many poor performing players out there, it will be important to retain them on your roster. So on the hitter side, we expect a similar amount of player activity as seen in FLB – there’s no way you’re dropping a Cristian Guzman but you’re going to rotate through 5th OFs in hopes of finding a guy on a cold streak or stumbling on a big find like a Norris Hopper (Reds OF from last year that managed 0 HR and 14 RBIs in 307 ABs!).

For pitching, it’ll be key to retain dud starters like Kip Wells and awful relief pitchers but we do foresee more turnover in pitchers than FLB since starting pitching reinforcements are generally worse than the pitching they replaced.

2007 POSTVIEW – WHO WERE THE TOP 10 BEST (AKA WORST) HITTERS AND PITCHERS?

Best 2007 Razzball Pitchers:
1. Scott Olsen (FLA) – 176.2 IP / 15 L / 29 HR / 5.81 ERA / 1.77 WHIP / 133 K
2. Livan Hernandez (ARI) – 204.1 IP / 11 L / 34 HR / 4.93 ERA / 1.60 WHIP / 90 K
3. Woody Williams (HOU) – 188 IP / 15 L / 35 HR / 5.27 ERA / 1.43 WHIP / 101 K
4. Daniel Cabrera (BAL) – 204.1 / 18 L / 25 HR / 5.55 ERA / 1.54 WHIP / 166 K
5. Dontrelle Willis (FLA) – 205.1 / 15 L / 29 HR / 5.17 ERA / 1.60 WHIP / 146 K
6. Jose Contreras (CHI-A) – 189 IP / 17 L / 21 HR / 5.57 ERA / 1.56 WHIP / 113 K
7. Adam Eaton (PHI) – 161.2 IP / 10 L / 30 HR / 6.29 ERA / 1.63 WHIP / 97 K
8. Edwin Jackson (TB) – 161 IP / 15 L / 19 HR / 5.76 ERA / 1.76 WHIP / 128 K
9. Kip Wells (STL) – 162.2 IP / 17 L / 19 HR / 5.70 ERA / 1.63 WHIP / 122 K
10. Kyle Davies (KC) – 136 IP / 15 L / 22 HR / 6.09 ERA / 1.65 WHIP / 99 K

Honorable Mention to Mike Maroth who had a fantastic 6.89 ERA / 1.88 WHIP / 51 Ks but his measly 7 Ls and 116 IP keeps him out of the top 10.

Best 2007 Razz Hitters:
1. Nick Punto (MIN – 3B) – 472 AB / 53 R / 1 HR / 25 RBI / 90 K / .210 AVG
2. Felipe Lopez (WAS – 2B/SS) – 603 AB / 70 R / 9 HR / 50 RBI / 109 K / .245 AVG
3. Alex Gordon (KC – 3B) – 543 AB / 60 R / 15 HR / 60 RBI / 137 K / .247 AVG
4. Brandon Inge (DET – 3B) – 508 AB / 64 R / 14 HR / 71 RBI / 150 K / .236 AVG
5. Nook Logan (WAS – OF) – 325 AB / 39 R / 0 HR / 21 RBI / 86 K / .265 AVG
6. Marcus Giles (SD – 2B) – 420 AB / 52 R / 4 HR / 39 RBI / 82 K / .229 AVG
7. Stephen Drew (ARI – SS) – 543 AB / 60 R / 12 HR / 60 RBI / 100 K / .238 AVG
8. Gerald Laird (TEX – C) – 407 AB / 48 R / 9 HR / 47 RBI / 103 K / .224 AVG
9. Brad Ausmus (HOU – C) – 349 AB / 38 R / 3 HR / 25 RBI / 103 K / .235 AVG
10. Craig Biggio (HOU – 2B) – 517 AB / 68 R / 10 HR / 50 RBI / 112 K / .251 AVG

Honorable Mention to Lyle Overbay who was able to out-Razz Richie Sexson due to 425 ABs that managed 49 R / 10 HR / 44 RBI / 100 K / .240 AVG in the usually productive 1B slot. He was just good enough to stay out of the top 10.

WHAT’S NEXT?
This won’t be the first article on Razzball. Follow-ups will include a 2007 Razzball Player Rater, an evolving Razzball Glossary, and details on our inaugural 10 team league.

We will be reserving at least 5 slots for fellow fantasy baseball bloggers/columnists.
Any open slots will be filled by submissions on this site. To get your name in early, comment on this article. The more you comment on the site, the more you’ll be considered (of course, if you’re a dumbass on the boards that won’t help your cause…even though that might seem to be a positive trait for Razzball). Also, Razzball questions can be sent directly to info@razzball.com.