Fantasy Baseball Advice

Another Joyous week of 2 start streaming is in the books.  This week we have a bunch of lads that are up against it.  Most of the options this week are being truly put to the test with some of their toughest match-ups to date.  There are no gimmies this week and believe it or not Bronson Arroyo actually looks attractive this week, though only in a fantasy baseball way.  The other options that are being added or talked about this week all get the Yankees and someone else, which is never a good thing especially who the other teams are.  So stream carefully.  Enjoy the week to come and if you need anything you know where to find me. (Please be aware that pitchers and match-ups change)

ONE START STREAMERS:

5/2

Josh Tomlin @ CHW – Humber

AJ Burnett @STL – Lynn

5/3

Jake Westbrook vs Pit – Bedard

Jeff Niemann vs Sea – Millwood

Ross Detwiler vs Ari – Kennedy

5/4

Drew Smyly vs CHW – Peavy

Jason Vargas vs Min – Marquis

Anthony Bass vs Mia – Johnson

TWO START OPTIONS:

Juan Nicasio (LAD vs Harang, Atl vs Beachy) Proving to be a good Road Scholar, offers you some decent K potential as well.   No word on if his brother Jose Texas Instruments is an option this week.

Tommy Milone (@Bos  vs Buchholz, @TB vs Moore) Gets his first start east of the Mississippi. The old man, the mighty miss.   Unfortunately Bos and TB are playing the role of Dinkums and are going to pee all over his picnic basket.

Bronson Arroyo (CHC vs Volstad, @Pit vs Morton) Gotta love the match-ups here. Based on options this week it’s either bench some useful guys, stream some guys mid week if possible, or go with this guy. There is no D unfortunately.

Jason Hammel (@NYY vs Kuroda, @Bos vs Buchholz)  The pride of Treasure Valley Community College, where their motto is bring a shovel because we are in a valley and there is treasure. From the outside looking in if you own him great job, give yourself a pat on the back. Now don’t stop until until May 17th when he can actually be used again.

J.A. Happ (NYM vs Dickey, STL vs Wainwright) The epic battle of R.A. vs J.A. for the world title of being the best initialed pitcher in the galaxy. Adam Wainwright sits in the corner stewing, waiting to take J.A’s lunch money.

Luke Hochevar (Det vs Wilk, NYY vs Hughes) Focus on the names of the match-ups. Not the line-ups for a second…ok I don’t blame you for saying that. Or that, or that…. OK now your just being offensive.  ERA says 5 but he is pitching like a mid 2′s guy, and that my friends is why numbers lie.

Joe Weiland (Mil vs Wolf, Mia vs Nolasco) Home cooking for a Friar’s pitcher. Viva la Hodgepodgery.

Charlie Morton (@STL vs Wainwright, Cin vs Arroyo) If runs came in bunches like bananas then Pittsburgh is suffering from a potassium deficiency.  Look away, nothing to see here unless your in a 16 plus team league and are desperate to destroy your counting stats for the week.

Liam Hendriks (@LAA vs Wilson, @Sea vs Noesi) The good news is he plays the Mariners. The bad is he is a mediocre pitcher on mediocre team playing against an ace.  No sugar coating it around here I am diabetic.

Josh Collmenter (Mia vs Buerhle, @NYM vs Dickey) Hahahahahahahahahahaha.  This message brought to you and paid for by the promotion campaign of Trevor Bauer.

Another week in the books, my fellow pretend baseball heads.  The chase for wins continues this week with a stellar group of entries comprised of 9 guys whose combined career starts don’t even equal the other person’s.  I can’t even remember what I was doing in 1986 when Jamie Moyer started his first game. Oh… I remember now it was called being a kid and getting dirty and stealing cars.   Stuff we all did and never got caught for, boys being boys type stuff.  It is kind of weird to imagine the same player being in the fantasy pool from my year one start into fantasy in 1989, til this year.  Crazy stuff.  He needs to get out of that pool ‘cuz he is going to be all wrinkly.  Even if you hate the Rockies, you have to root for Jamie a little, just don’t do it too loud; he frightens easily.  So enjoy the week to come and happy fantasy scavenging.  (Pitchers and matchups change so please be aware.)

One Start Streamers :

4/25

Kyle Drabek @Bal – Hammel

Luke Hochevar @Cle – Tomlin

Barry Zito @Cin – Arroyo

4/26

Philip Humber vs Bos – Doubront

Rick Porcello vs Sea – Noesi

4/27

Danny Duffy @MIN – Pavano

Jake Westbrook @Mil – TBD

4/28

Randall Delgado vs Pit – Bedard

Two Star Options:

Jamie Moyer (@Pit vs McDonald, NYM vs Dickey) – Moyer will be in Pittsburgh and Denver this week throwing a baseball unfast.  I hope he doesn’t wear out his feet peddling his car to the games, he needs his strength.

Lucas Harrell (@Mil vs Greinke, @Cin vs Latos) – I personally think it’s great that the ‘Stros are giving the kid from ET a chance.  No word on if they gave his bike with a basket a job in the transportation department.

Bartolo Colon (CHW vs Peavy, @Bal vs Hunter) – 15 straight scoreless innings, and he threw 38 consecutive strikes in his start on Wednesday.  That to me is crazy.  I can’t do anything 38 times in a row with out the help of visual aides. This is the only piece of actual stat in this article, so you’re welcome.

Henderson Alvarez (@Bal vs Hunter, Sea vs Vargas) – Remember 2 weeks ago when I said it would be his only appearance on this weekly format. Well, the gist of it is I lied, because people still don’t have this guy rostered enough so your stuck listening about him.

Chris Capuano (ATL vs Jurrjens, WAS vs Zimmermann) – Oooh, 2 starts at home, I still think I would take Paul Lynde to block.  We come for the K’s and stay for the apuano.  Oh wait,  damn you phonetics. Somewhere in heaven, Charles Nelson Reilly is jealous of Paul Lynde being mentioned.

Bruce Chen (Tor vs Morrow, @Min vs Liriano) – To me Bruce Chen is like the guy who still buys Zima at the liquor store.  You see it as being available in the store, but wonder who ever buys it.  Now you know, but you really shouldn’t.

Jason Marquis (Bos vs Lester, KC vs Sanchez) – I ran into Marquis at the Wawa ordering a quesadilla after his start against the Yankees and asked about his 2 start week.  He said, “You know me as the b-i-z-m-a-r-q-u-i-s,  I go for what I know doin’ a show for human beings, I’m guaranteed to roc,k I make the ladies scream and shout.” “Nobody beats the bizzzz.”  Floored, he autographed my 6″ sub in oil and vinegar.

R.A. Dickey (Mia vs Buerhle, @COL vs Moyer) – A knuckleballing New York guy named Dickey, I thought Rudy did away with all that type of riff-raff.  If he can keep the ball in the park he will be successful.  That dynamite piece of advice brought to you by obviousness and wig-wam socks.

Clayton Richard (Was vs Zimmermann, @SF vs Cain) – My first rule of fantasy streaming is don’t trust a guy with 2 first names. Second rule is always check for an Adam’s apples. Cuz, you never can tell with the advancements in modern medicine. Wait, are we still talking about streaming pitchers?

Jason Vargas (@Det vs Scherzer, @Tor vs Alvarez) – The Hawk and Animal special of the week. This guy is pitching better than I think anyone is giving him credit for. Yeah, he’s a Marginer and is away from home this week, but I say fiddle faddle.   Trends come and go, that’s why I am still hanging onto my Jordache jeans.

Welcome to our second FanDuel Freeroll of the season. And congrats to fyeabaseball who took 1st out of 337 entries and won a cool 75 toad hides. I came in 70th and am a disgrace to my family. This week’s freeroll is on Friday the 13th which means Peyton Hillis will jinx a Ricky Nolasco no-no.

Here are some possible plays for Friday’s games:

P: Ricky Nolasco: Ricky is 5-1 against the Astros with 2 complete games.

C: Ryan Hanigan: He is a pretty decent 5 for 5 against against Jordan Zimmerman. I think that is good. Let me get my calculator out.

1B: Justin Morneau: Morneau is 2 for 4 off Matt Harrison.

2B: Rickie Weeks: Jair Jurrjens has given up 3 hits in 7 at bats to Weeks.

2B: Robinson Cano: Cano has hit Ervin Santana very well in his career going 11 for 32 against him with 4 donkaruskis.

3B: Jack Hannahan: Your deep thought for today is that Hannahan is 6 for 11 off Luke Hochevar with 3 doubles, 2 home runs and 5 ribbies.

3B: Chone Figgins: Bartolo Colon has allowed 5 hits in 12 at bats to Figgy Cent.

SS: Derek Jeter: He’s been hitting well early and is 17 for 38 with 3 home runs against Ervin Santana.

SS: Asdrubal Cabrera: Luke Hochevar has not pitched well against the current Cleveland roster and Cabrera has hit 7 of 19 against him.

OF: Austin Jackson: Jackson is 3 for 6 against Jake Peavy and has been hot to start the season.

OF: Cameron Maybin: Maybin is 4 for 10 off Aaron Harang with a homer and has been playing wellish. Not Welsh.

OF: Shin-Soo Choo: Choo is 13 for 23 against Hochevar with 4 doubles, 2 homers and 10 RBIs.

Now let’s take a look at some of the early bargains at each position in FanDuel so far this season. There is a balance you have to make with value versus bad assness. You’ll see that Miguel Cabrera has been dominant so far AND has the most points per $1,000 spent (for non pitchers). So there is a win/win situation, but that’s not always the case. Jeff Samardzija is a risky player who really paid off last time but Felix Hernandez who costs a whole Yugo more is safer and put up 25 FanDuel Points in his first start. In hindsight you would choose Samardzija everyday, but we aren’t always going to be that lucky. That’s what makes the game fun I guess.

Some analyses strike gold.  Some analyses are an immediate bust.  It’s the third type – the ‘fool’s gold’ type – that are the most frustrating.  After three years of middling predictions, I think my ‘risky pitcher’ analysis from a couple years ago is falling into that 3rd category.

Over the past 7 years, about 24% of pitchers coming off seasons with 2,700+ pitches fit one of the two dropoff criteria (< 2,000 pitchers or, roughly, missing 1/3 of the season or more) or have a significant drop in their skills (measured as xFIP increased by .75+).

I figured that if I could identify some commonalities among the injured pitchers in past years that it would help me predict which pitchers were more risky in upcoming years.  After 3 years of hitting the yearly average in my predictions, I’m resigned to the fact that the findings in my initial analysis were either fluky or I’m really bad at applying the findings.  (Or I need Tom Verducci’s assistance at being less self-critical.)

Below are my results from last year.  About 20% of pitchers had a dropoff season – my most notable misses are Josh Johnson (had predicted him the previous year), Jonathan Sanchez, Dallas Braden, Clayton Richard, Brian Matusz, and Brett Cecil.  (Wow, that list falls off fast, doesn’t it?).  My most impressive accomplishment was predicting Gio Gonzalez gets traded to the Nationals and being the first on record to nickname him Nat Gio.  Hopefully he keeps getting as much drop on his curveball as the breasts typically found in Nat Geo.

Despite my lack of success, I still shy away from drafting more than one pitcher with two of the following three criteria:   1) Throws a lot of sliders, 2) 700+ MLB pitch differential from previous year, and 3) Coming off first season with a full workload (2,500+ pitches).  See below for the dropoff statistics of pitchers that fall under these categories.

Here are ten otherwise solid pitchers that I’d prefer to have no more than 1 on my team if I could avoid it.  Consider my tepid performance to date before taking it too much to heart

(notes: pitch increase totals only include MLB, only includes pitchers who had close to a full season last year – obviously players who were injured most/all of last year like Santana and Peavy are risky.  Also shied away from known injury concerns like Marcum and Carpenter)

Michael Pineda (31.5% sliders, 2,688 pitches) – I’ve liked this guy the moment I first heard his name – probably because it made me think of empanadas which are delicious.  It seems like his poor 2nd half + velocity drop is scaring off a lot of drafters.  He went 136th in my 12-team ‘expert’ Razzball Commenter League.  Can’t argue with selecting him there but I had the 135th pick, planned to take Cory Luebke, and when he was gone, took a closer instead.

Madison Bumgarner (32.4% sliders, 1,500 pitch increase) – I love the Mad-Bum.   We drafted him in the 6th round of our 15 Team LABR mixed league.  Might’ve had him in a couple more leagues but the bidding got too high.  But last year was his first full year in the bigs and he throws a whopping 32% sliders – 4th highest among SPs – and it’s his most effective pitch (3rd best slider among starting pitchers with a wSL of 17.7 – i.e., his slider saved 17 runs above the average pitch).  His fastball came in about league average for effectiveness.  There are pitchers who can manage this type of pitch mix (Clayton Kershaw, CC Sabathia) but it’s a little more risky until they’ve proven they can do it in back-to-back seasons.  (NOTE: Commenters have noted that there is disagreement about Pitch F/X’s classification of Bumgarner’s cutter as a slider and that his true slider rate might be closer to 20%.  That doesn’t remove his risk but definitely a more sustainable usage rate.  I can’t think of another recent lefty who managed a 30+% slider rate and had a productive career except for Randy Johnson – I imagine Carlton had similar usage rates too.).

Jhoulys Chacin (18.9% sliders, +834 pitch increase) – Chacin was on my 2011 list but lived up to his draft value – delivering 11 wins and a 3.64 ERA.  But his K/rate dropped from 9.1 K/9 in 2010 to 6.96 in 2011.  The part that scares me most (and I mentioned this in 2010) is that he is highly dependent on breaking pitches for success and he’s in the worst home stadium for breaking pitches.  His fastball was the 7th worst in baseball amongst starters last year on a per-pitch basis (wFB/C) while his slider, curveball, and changeup were all above average.  His changeup might be his saving grace in 2012 as it was the only pitch of the four that improved in effectiveness between 2010 and 2011.  (Note:  We have him on our LABR team too….getting a little concerned.)

Brandon McCarthy (2% sliders, 2,499 pitch increase) – The formula for getting onto the cover of ESPN Magazine seems to be this:  one marginally successful season + good sense of humor + hot wife.  McCarthy was a prized prospect that White Sox GM Kenny Williams was able to swap for the Rangers’ John Danks (one of the few marks against otherwise awesome GM Jon Daniels).  He couldn’t manage more than 120 IP in a year (majors + minors) between 2005-2010.  When he did pitch, he had bad K and BB rates.  Then, after maybe spending a week at Dave Duncan sleepaway camp, he emerges in 2011 as a ground ball pitcher with great control (1.32 BB/9) to balance against a mediocre 6.5 K/9.  He’s a fine late round pick but I see little upside with a higher than average chance of missing significant time.  (Note:  For AL-only drafters, stock up on A’s SPs.  McCarthy and Colon will both likely miss time.  I like Tom Milone and Tyson Ross at the right price).

Tim Stauffer (0% sliders, 1,774 pitch increase) – Similar to McCarthy.  Prized prospect derailed by injuries.  Throws a lot of pitches that turn into ground balls once hit (I wanted to write ‘throws a lot of ground balls’ but that could be confusing and our blog is incomprehensible enough.).  His wife’s not bad to look at.  Maybe it’s his previous ‘prospect’ status that hides the fact he’s not particularly good.  He’s had a lot of success with his fastball the past two years but it’s hard to put much faith in a 90 MPH fastball that clearly doesn’t lead to a lot of swing-and-misses (6.2 K/9) or comes with pinpoint control (2.6 BB/9).  He’s a Hodgepadre so he’s got some value for home starts but I wouldn’t consider him any better than, say, Clayton Richard.

Jordan Zimmermann (24% sliders, 2,464 pitch increase) – The other Jay-Z came back from Tommy John surgery to post solid if not spectacular numbers in 2011.  His ERA and WHIP (1.15) were helped by low HR and BABIP rates.  His control was very good (1.73 BB/9) so he still projects to be solid at WHIP.  I’m wary of the fact he threw 24% sliders (his most effective pitch) and still had a mediocre K-rate (6.9 K/9).  He’s probably going to go higher in drafts than I like.

Ervin Santana (38.4% sliders, 108 pitch decrease) – I think I put Ervin Santana on the list every other year.  From 2006-2010, Ervin Santana was the bizarro-Saberhagen – good in the even years, bad in the odd years.  He broke the streak in 2011.  I just can’t sign up for a pitcher that is so dependent on the slider.

Dan Haren (0% sliders, 25 pitch increase) – Might as well go out on a limb for my 10th choice.  There aren’t many pitchers as consistently great as Dan Haren – 7 years straight of 215+ IP, 4 straight years of a sub-3.50 xFIP, a sub 2 BB/9 rate in 4 of the past 6 years.  So why the concern?  Much like Roy Halladay, Dan Haren has morphed from throwing a standard pitch mix (Fastball/Slider/Curve/Split-Finger) to relying heavily on a cut fastball.  After ditching the slider for a cutter in 2009, his cutter rate has gone from 23% to 27% to 48%.  In 2011, his cutter was the 3rd most effective on a per-pitch basis and by far the most valuable in aggregate (wCT of 30.5 runs above average was double everyone except for Halladay’s 19.5 and Gavin Floyd’s 15.5).  In fact, Haren’s cutter was the most valuable pitch in aggregate of ANY pitch in 2011.  Unlike Roy Halladay, though, Haren doesn’t have velocity to spare.  His fastball velocity has slowly decreased from 91.9 MPH in 2005 to 90.0 MPH in 2011.  His cutter was at 85 MPH (Halladay’s at 90 MPH), making it one of the slowest amongst starting pitchers.  He had great success with it in 2011 at this velocity – but the pitch really has nowhere to go but down in 2012 and the rest of his stuff isn’t good enough to warrant his ADP if the cutter fails him.

Luke Hochevar – After high school, Hochevar was selected in the 39th round of the 2002 draft by the Los Angeles Dodgers. To hell with that, he said, I’m going to Tennessee to follow Arrested Development and Tee Martin.

It turned out to be a darn good choice for Hochevar. In 2005, he set a school record for strikeouts, was named SEC player of the year and took home the prestigious Roger Clemens Award (given to the top D-I pitcher). For reasons unknown (wink), the award was discontinued in 2009 after only six years in existence. In addition to Hochevar, the other award winners are Jered Weaver, Andrew Miller, David Price and Aaron Crow.

Following his acclaimed college career, the Dodgers drafted Hochevar again, though this time in the first round (although 40th overall). As with so many other amateur players who are “advised” by Scott Boras, Hochevar’s negotiation with the Dodgers was long and contentious. At one point, Hochevar actually dumped Boras for another agent and accepted a $2.98 million signing bonus. The next day, however, Hochevar reunited with Boras and promptly reneged on the deal. Suffice it to say, nobody should have been surprised when the signing deadline passed and Hochevar was not a Dodger.

Hochevar re-entered the draft in 2006 and was selected first overall by Kansas City. The Royals showed him the money; Hochevar signed a four-year major league deal worth $5.3 million guaranteed, which included a $3.5 million signing bonus and additional incentives worth $1.7 million.

Hochevar began his professional career in 2007 (after being rated the #32 best prospect), pitching 152 innings between AA and AAA. Unfortunately, he didn’t fare all that well at either level. In AA, he had a 4.69 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, but an incredibly impressive 3.62 K:BB rate. At AAA, he had a 5.12 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and less impressive 2.10 K:BB rate. Still, he was only 23.

In 2008, Hochevar, now the #63 best prospect, showed some impressive chops in AAA in the Pacific Coast League, a tough hitter’s league. He impressed the brass so much that he was promoted to the woeful major league squad. He didn’t get much of a welcome basket though, as he teammates gave him the lowest run support of any major league pitcher (2.8 runs per game). Still, it wasn’t entirely his teammate’s fault that he had a 6-12 record. He had a miserable 5.02 K/9 rate and an even more miserable 3.28 BB/9 rate, i.e. a 1.52 K:BB rate – that won’t cut it. His bullpen didn’t help much (62.3% strand rate) either.

Undeterred, the Royals continued to run him out there every fifth day in 2009. While his ERA was worse, the underlying numbers suggested Hochevar actually took a small step forward. He had a 6.67 K/9 rate, a 2.90 BB/9 rate and a 2.30 K:BB rate – something that could work on the major league level. He gave up a few more HRs than would seem logical, had a somewhat inflated BABIP (.321 compared to .300 for his career) and an even worse strand rate (59.3%) than in 2008.

Prior to 2010, the claim could be made that that Hochevar was improving, albeit incrementally. Well, if you look at his 2010 round numbers – 4.81 ERA and 1.43 WHIP – it sure looks like the same ole crapola. However, he maintained a K:BB rate above 2.0 and his FIP was 3.93 (xFIP was 4.09) – certainly subtly positive signs.

Unfortunately, the incremental progress has stalled almost completely in 2011. His K/9 rate (5.12) is back in the sewer and his HRs are up. He has his first south-of-.300 BABIP, yet is wasting it completely.

I really thought, at this point, Hochevar would be an average MLB starter, someone in the Jeremy Guthrie mold who could do some nice things. While this belief has not come to fruition, it is still possible for him to take the necessary step forward.

Over his last 32.2 IPs and five starts, Hochevar has 26 Ks, a 3.58 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He has walked just 10 batters. There is some momentum with Hochevar that I find appealing, especially in deep leagues where you have to gain some Ks from unlikely sources. (This was written before his latest start against the Boston Red Sox, which wasn’t great: 6 IPs, five ER, eight hits, three walks and four Ks. Still, going back to July 3, he has pitched 47.2 IPs with a 4.72 ERA and 37 Ks to 19 walks and he has the 30th most Ks over the last 30 days. )

He’s still barely a match-ups plays. However, if he keeps this up, he could be a nice bargain now and in 2012.  Plus, you get to say Hochevar, which I find fun. It reminds me of a fine cheese like manchego.

Mike Carp – If you don’t know the story of Mike Carp (for some reason I feel like I’m beginning the narration of Big Fish), well, sit a-spell. Also, how could you not know the ins and outs of the New York Mets 2004 ninth round draft pick? In 2005, and just 19 years old, Carp hit 19 bombs over 89 games in A ball. The following season, at the A+ level, he posted a .287/.379/.450 line and won the Sterling Award as the Mets organization player of the year.

Following this early success, Carp seemed destined to eventually win a job with the parent club. Unfortunately, he broke his finger in 2007 and stumbled to a .251/.337/.387 line in AA.

Repeating AA in 2008, and now 22, Carp returned to form: .299/.403/.471 – yep, a .400+ OBP and 17 HRs. He was on his way…to Seattle.

On December 11, 2008, Carp, as part of a three team deal, was sent to Seattle along with a few other guys including Jason Vargas, Endy Chavez and Aaron Heilman for what amounted to J.J. Putz (the ghost of Jeremy Reed’s prospect was also involved).

Carp spent most of his time in AAA for the Mariners and looked good, going .271/.372/.446 with 15 HRs in 110 games. I know I had an eye on him when he made his major league debut, especially after he went .315/.415/.463 in his first 65 MLB plate appearances.

However, it wasn’t enough to get Carp full time duties in 2010 and he was sent back to AAA. Carp scuffled the entire season (though he showed some fantastic power), going .257/.328/.516 and notching just seven hits in 41 plate appearances in the Show. Of course, Carp, after posting BABIPs well over .300 the last previous seasons in minors, finished with just a .259 average on balls in play.

The bloom was definitely not off the rose yet. Carp came out blazing in 2011, hitting .347/.414/.653 in AAA with 21 HRs in just 66 games. He hasn’t stopped in the majors either: .325/.382/.517 with six homers in 40 games.

While I’ve been overwhelmingly positive about Carp, I must mention the gargantuan elephant in the room: his .410 BABIP. He does have an unprecedented 29.7% line drive rate, but he is swinging and missing a ton: 14.9% and striking out a fair bit: 24.2%. It’s only a matter of time before major league pitchers make the adjustment and give him the Delmon Young treatment (i.e., nothing good to hit). Still, the kid is capable of taking a pitch and should be able to handle that bump. Until that bump comes, however, you need to be starting him in most every league. He is that locked in. I haven’t been this excited since Kevin Bass went .244/.303/.336 for the Orioles in 1995, and then promptly retired.

Brandon McCarthy – About seven years ago, Brandon McCarthy was on his way to being better known than Andrew McCarthy. As a 20-year-old, splitting time between A, A+ and AAA, McCarthy, a former 17th round draft pick of the White Sox in 2002, posted a 3.14 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He struck out 202 batters in just 172 innings and walked only 30. He had a 6.73 K:BB rate.

Before 2005, McCarthy was rated the #49 prospect and looked good at AAA: 3.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 rate and 4.06 K:BB rate. He was brought up to the major league club, appeared in 12 games and started 10. If you looked at the cosmetics, his 4.03 ERA and 1.18 WHIP certainly foretold greatness. However, he had a .249 BABIP, an 81.2% strand rate and only posted a 6.45 K/9 rate.

The White Sox didn’t want to stress the young hurler, so they kept him in the bullpen for most of 2006. His strikeout rates benefitted, but he walked more guys and didn’t resemble anything near a top 50 prospect – finishing with a 4.68 ERA, 5.30 FIP and 4.60 xFIP.

In the offseason, he was shipped to Texas for, predominantly, John Danks and Nick Masset – that one didn’t work out so well for Rangers.

McCarthy posted dismal K numbers during his first year with Texas and increased his walks, some of which might have been due to injury. After just 22 starts, the Rangers shut McCarthy down due to a stress fracture in his right shoulderblade.

McCarthy developed inflammation in his right elbow during Spring Training the next year and missed a sizeable chunk of the season. He pitched in the majors sparingly for Texas in 2009, but his time with the major league squad was done after that season. Overall, he pitched just 221 IPs with a 4.68 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 1.46 K:BB ratio for the big league club. He was worth barely one win above a replacement player during his tenure.

He did pitch 56 innings in the minors in 2010 for the Rangers. He looked good: 3.36 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and a 4.00 K:BB ratio. However he was granted free agency on November 5, 2010.

The Oakland Athletics made a play for McCarthy and signed him on December 14, 2010.

While battling chronic injuries, McCarthy has been a boon to a beleaguered Athletics rotation. He has taken the ball 18 times now, spread across 118 innings – the most he has pitched in the majors in any season. He has his same old pedestrian K-rate (5.87) but he has really cut down on his walks (just 1.37), giving himself a fantastic 4.28 K:BB rate. Apparently pitching in a more forgiving ballpark has given McCarthy the confidence to just throw strikes.

While his strand rate is a little generous (63.7%), it is mostly due to a stellar bullpen and a lack of homeruns – two things that seem to be constants for the A’s. His ERA (3.74), FIP (2.82) and xFIP (3.39) all paint a rosy picture for the one-time stud.

McCarthy, just recently 28, is a nice pitcher who can help control your ratios down the stretch. He’s a prefect compliment to someone like Bud Norris or Ryan Dempster, who bring the Ks, but also the high ratios. He is only 19% owned, so go out and get him for the stretch run.