Fantasy Baseball Advice

This week I’ll tackle the National League (Sorry, football season never really ends for me). I know it doesn’t get better than this — let’s party till the ‘rents come home.  I don’t know what intrigues me more: relief pitching or if someone is eating ice cream and I don’t know what flavor it is.  I digress, but, nonetheless, relief pitching changes from day to day. Who pitches better at night, on the road, on Sunday, on an odd numbered day?  More importantly, the NL has managers that are always the leaders in holds for a team. For this reason, make sure to pay attention to the Dodgers, Padres and Cards. This week’s smattering of ‘pens brings up a pretty decent group of hurlers, and now I bring you — without further hubbub — the twenty guys that I see as being the “most bestest” in the land of no DH.  The middle relievers for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Nick Massett – Guy has the goods: everything you look for in RP. To name a few: decent control, great K’s, low BA against. My breakout guy for holds.

Todd Coffey – Not a huge K threat, decent peripherals, but when it comes down to it, what’s better than a barrel chested dude sprinting in from the pen?

LaTroy Hawkins – Personally, I’m not a huge fan of this guy. Two capital letters in your first name is just dumb: it’s like cake with no icing. Will be decent for sleeper ‘pen in the “land of hops and ales.”

Sergio Romo -  Flame thrower, awesome K/9.  Great deep league help for peripheral help. Has future closer potential. Will pitch behind Wilson and in front of…

Jeremy Affeldt – Dual winner of the Arthur Rhodes Trophy last year — minuscule numbers. Should be top 5 in holds again this year.

Pete Moylan -  Another year removed from TJ surgery. Pitched great in a reduced role last year. Expect his walk rate to fall.

Takashi Saito – Pitched great in AL last year. Should repeat nicely in front of Wags.  Great K, ERA, and WHIP potential.

Pedro Feliciano – Sounds like a singer and pitches like a lefty.  Great ratios and a ton of appearances.  Great “one and done” guy for the oft-injured Mets.  Good source of snipe wins.

Ryoti Igarashi – Great numbers in Japan. Will fool guys with early delivery. Reminds me a lot of Saito.  Owns his own “The Igarashi Driving Academy.”

Jason Motte – Blew his chance to close last year. Great stuff — definitely the closer moving forward. The Lou is always top 5 for holds as an organization.   Go bet it — $2 bucks on Kryptonite.

Trevor Miller – Guy is a hundred and 12 years old, and gets a 2 yr deal.  I want to come back as a lefty reliever. Tiny numbers. Another “LaRussa” go-to guy.

Mike Adams – Great guy for almost all formats.  Tiny numbers add up to big help in ERA and WHIP. Awesome across the board — another ‘pen you can rely on.

Luke Gregerson – Snuck up on everyone last year. Great K potential again (93k’s in 75 inn). Yeah, I had to look that up to. Bud’s go-to righty in front of “The Heath Bar.”

George Sherrill – Torre rides success out of the bullpen — he lives by it. Not a lot of K’s, and tends to get sketchy with men on.  Great sleeper in deeper formats for 20 holds/ 10 save season.

Hong-Chih Kuo – Awesome down the stretch, great K’s and low ERA. It’s why we all drafted him in the beginning of the year only to drop him and then watch someone else pick him up. Graduate of “Igarashi Driving Academy.”

Ramon Troncoso – Wore down by mid-year, which is what Torre does to young RP.  Needs to work on the walks.  Win “sniper” if I ever have seen one — think Aceves 2009.

Brian Bruney – Always gets the hype wherever he goes.  Has the goods, but needs to keep his wits when pitching. Great stuff — everything required to be a success in the setup for the Senators, uh, Nationals.

Manny Corpas – Another guy that can’t find his role. Closes out games horribly, but sets up great.  Needs to stay healthy and the Rocks will benefit.

Juan Gutierrez – Will be closing by A.S break — bank on it. Great K potential. Should be another hold/save contributor.  My sleeper pick late in drafts for cheap saves.

Arthur Rhodes – You can’t have a MR discussion without the Godfather. He blows up like Apollonia in the playoffs, but Cincy isn’t invited to those.

Others to consider: John Grabow, Aaron Heilman, Dan Meyer, Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom, Ryan Madson and Danys Baez.

The murmurs of Heath Bell getting traded to another team by July are getting louder.  (BTW, I love the word murmurs.  I really wanted the survivors on Lost to call The Others, The Murmurs.  Wouldn’t that have been awesome?!  Okay, maybe me.)  Prepare for a dozen or so posts titled, “For Whom the Bell Tolls,” at some of our weak sister sites.  And by “weak sister,” I’m talking prison slang and I mean ESPN.  I moved Bell down one whole spot.  I’m not worried in March about someone who might get traded in July.  He will probably drop one or two spots each month until July.  If you get 23 saves, a 1.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 42 Ks in 37 1/3 innings pre-All-Star Break, you’ll be mad you drafted him?  Bee tee dubya, those were his 1st half numbers last year.  Then who knows where he goes.  Maybe Lidge and Madson finally give Manuel a coronary and Bell takes over the closing duties in Philly as Victorino player-manages.  Or maybe Bell goes somewhere else.  You get the picture; it’s still early.  Don’t overestimate-slash-overthink-slash-overrate… Just don’t “over” anything.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan (Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (Hideki Okajima, Daniel Bard)
3. Mariano Rivera (Alfredo Aceves, David Robertson, Joba Hughesberlain)
4. Jonathan Broxton (George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

5. Francisco Rodriguez (+2) (Kelvim Escobar, Eddie Kunz)
6. Heath Bell (-1) (Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson)
7. Carlos Marmol (-1) (Angel Guzman, John Grabow)
8. Joakim Soria (Kyle Farnsworth, Carlos Rosa)
9. Jose Valverde (+1) (Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry)
10. David Aardsma (-1) (Mark Lowe, Chad Cordero)
11. Brian Wilson (Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo)
12. Francisco Cordero (Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset, Jared Burton)
13. Huston Street (Franklin Morales, Rafael Betancourt)
14. Rafael Soriano (J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler)
15. Billy Wagner (Takashi Saito)
16. Brian Fuentes (Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen)
17. Andrew Bailey (Michael Wuertz, Brad Ziegler)
18. Ryan Franklin (Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan)
19. Octavio Dotel (Joel Hanrahan)
20. Leo Nunez (Dan Meyer)
21. Frank Francisco (C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray)
22. Mike Gonzalez (Jim Johnson)
23. Trevor Hoffman (LaTroy Hawkins)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Kerry Wood– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Asdrubal in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

24. Brad Lidge (+3) (Ryan Madson, Danys Baez)
25. Bobby Jenks (-1) (Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz)
26. Matt Capps (-1) (Brian Bruney, Drew Storen)
27. Chad Qualls (-1) (Juan Gutierrez, Bob Howry)
28. Kerry Wood (Chris Perez)
29. Brandon Lyon (Matt Lindstrom, Jeff Fulchino)
30. Jason Frasor/Scott Downs/Kevin Gregg (Jeremy Accardo, The Pigeon That Dave Winfield Killed’s Vengeful Grandson)

Since our last check up no games have been played, but there was movement on the closer rankings.  Was it February Grey getting bored and mixing things up?  Probably, but let’s pretend there’s some logic in my reasoning.  Next to the closers that moved, there’s a plus or minus.   Also, Dotel and Valverde weren’t closers a month ago, so they’ve been added.  I gave you some deets on Dotel.  I went over Valverde in the top 20 closers for 2010 fantasy baseball.  There’s also projections for the top 20 closers.  One other thing, someone in the comments yesterday mentioned how Capps and Dotel were not mock drafted at all.  Sure, mock drafts are wonky.  But I do see this in actual leagues.  All closers should be owned.  If I get to the last three rounds of a draft, I’ll take three more closers on top of the three I already own.  Closers’ value skyrockets once the season starts.  In a ‘pert league on May 1st of last year, I traded Heath Bell and Huston Street for Dan Haren and David Aardsma.  You know when I drafted Bell and Street?  Yeah, end rounds.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan (Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (Hideki Okajima, Daniel Bard)
3. Mariano Rivera (Alfredo Aceves, David Robertson, Joba Hughesberlain)
4. Jonathan Broxton (George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

5. Heath Bell (+1) (Luke Gregerson)
6. Carlos Marmol (+1) (Angel Guzman, John Grabow)
7. Francisco Rodriguez (+1)(Kelvim Escobar, Eddie Kunz)
8. Joakim Soria (-3) (Kyle Farnsworth, Carlos Rosa)
9. David Aardsma (+1) (Mark Lowe, Chad Cordero)
10. Jose Valverde (Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry)
11. Brian Wilson (Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo)
12. Francisco Cordero (+1) (Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset, Jared Burton)
13. Huston Street (-1) (Franklin Morales, Rafael Betancourt)
14. Rafael Soriano (+1) (J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler)
15. Billy Wagner (+1) (Takashi Saito)
16. Brian Fuentes (+1) (Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen)
17. Andrew Bailey (-8) (Michael Wuertz, Brad Ziegler)
18. Ryan Franklin (-4) (Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan)
19. Octavio Dotel (Joel Hanrahan)
20. Leo Nunez (-2) (Dan Meyer)
21. Frank Francisco (-1) (C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray)
22. Mike Gonzalez (-3) (Jim Johnson)
23. Trevor Hoffman (-1) (LaTroy Hawkins)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Kerry Wood– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Asdrubal in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

24. Bobby Jenks (-1) (Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz)
25. Matt Capps (-1) (Brian Bruney, Drew Storen)
26. Chad Qualls (-1) (Juan Gutierrez, Bob Howry)
27. Brad Lidge (-1) (Ryan Madson, Danys Baez)
28. Kerry Wood (-1) (Chris Perez)
29. Brandon Lyon (-1) (Matt Lindstrom, Jeff Fulchino, Jeff Soydoubleshotchino)
30. Jason Frasor/Scott Downs/Kevin Gregg (-2) (Jeremy Accardo, J. Scovin Frasoggs the Third)

Our first look at closers for the 2010 fantasy baseball season, including some recent movees.  I already went over Billy Wagner to the Braves, Lindstrom to the Astros, Rafael Soriano to the Rays and Capps to the Nats.  Since then, Mike Gonzalez is a movee to Baltimore.  Bobby Cox was unable to get fully behind a lefty cl0ser, but that doesn’t mean Mike Gonzalez can’t find success with the Orioles.  The only major negative with Mike Gonzalez is I have to write out Mike Gonzalez’s entire name every time I mention Mike Gonzalez because it doesn’t sound right any other way.  It’s still real early in the preseason for closers.  Sometimes these battles aren’t decided until the last week of spring training (you still have time, Astros!).  So this is a like a Google Map of closers that might lead you down a road closed for construction.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan (Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (Hideki Okajima, Daniel Bard)
3. Mariano Rivera (Alfredo Aceves, David Robertson, Joba Hughesberlain)
4. Jonathan Broxton (George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

5. Joakim Soria (Kyle Farnsworth, Carlos Rosa)
6. Heath Bell (Luke Gregerson)
7. Carlos Marmol (Angel Guzman, John Grabow)
8. Francisco Rodriguez (Kelvim Escobar, Eddie Kunz)
9. Andrew Bailey (Michael Wuertz, Brad Ziegler)
10. David Aardsma (Mark Lowe, Chad Cordero)
11. Brian Wilson (Jeremy Affeldt)
12. Huston Street (Franklin Morales, Rafael Betancourt)
13. Francisco Cordero (Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset, Jared Burton)
14. Ryan Franklin (Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan)
15. Rafael Soriano (J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler)
16. Billy Wagner (Takashi Saito)
17. Brian Fuentes (Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen)
18. Leo Nunez (Dan Meyer)
19. Mike Gonzalez (Jim Johnson)
20. Frank Francisco (C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray)
21. Joel Zumaya (Ryan Perry)
22. Trevor Hoffman (LaTroy Hawkins)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Kerry Wood– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Asdrubal in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

23. Bobby Jenks (Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz)
24. Matt Capps (Brian Bruney, Drew Storen)
25. Chad Qualls (Juan Gutierrez, Bob Howry)
26. Brad Lidge (Ryan Madson, Danys Baez)
27. Kerry Wood (Chris Perez)
28. Jason Frasor (Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo)
29. Brandon Lyon/Matt Lindstrom (Winner of Radio Phone-In Contest)
30. Joel Hanrahan (Runner-Up To Astros’ Phone-In Contest Winner)

Hank Blalock was called Mr. September by his manager.  I think he meant it as a compliment.  Last year, he hit eight homers in 95 ABs in September.  This year, batting .360.  In the last seven games, it’s up to .400 with 2 homers.  Luckily, he’s also playing every game, because he’s the only one hitting for the Rangers, which means he’ll continue to play.  If you’re currently rocking an underperforming corner guy try out Blalock.  Instead of chewing gum, chew bacon!  (BTW, I have a theory why Blalock hits well in September.  The Texas summer tires the Rangers hitters out.  By September, they’re done, except for Blalock because he never plays a full season.  So this theory would make even more sense if Blalock’s other good month is April.  Yup, checks out.  In the last three years, April’s his 2nd best month.  Check.  Mate.)  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Bronson Arroyo – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners.  Guitar Arroyo continues to roll in the 2nd half.  Hopefully, I don’t have to field too many questions in March from people asking if they should draft Arroyo in 2010.  You should not.  I’m all for grabbing him next July though.

Willy Taveras – 2-for-4 as he led off.  This start came at the expense of Drew Stubbs.  Oh, Dusty, you and your decisions.  I think Stubbs will continue to get the majority of the starts.

Lastings Milledge – HR yesterday.  Hitting .440 over the last week with two steals, as well.  Will he be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell?  Maybe, depends what Late Afternoon Grey puts on the menu.

Vernon Wells – HR yesterday.  Wow, so now we’ve had Rios, Hawpe, Dye and Wells homer on consecutive days.  Tomorrow, David Wright!

Vicente Padilla – 5 IP, 8 baserunners, 4 ER.  Well, he left in line for the victory.  That’s about all I can say nice about him.  He’s terrible.  And his resemblance to this guy is scary.

Rafael Furcal – HR yesterday.  He was the lead in yesterday’s roundup, so I’m going to be brief.  He’s going to end this season well (obviously) then he’s going to tear it up in the playoffs leading to him being overrated once again next year.  Thank you, Magic Eight Ball.

Matt Kemp – Hit his 26th homer yesterday to go along with his 34 steals.  A guy with 30/30/.300 ability who hasn’t even hit his prime yet?  Yeah, I think he’s going to be a top 10 ranked guy for me next year.

Ryan Braun – 0-for-5 yesterday.  Speaking of top ten, Braun’s still there, but he definitely hasn’t ended the season well.

Luke Gregerson – He got a rare 1 2/3 IP inning save yesterday.  I don’t think it means anything other than Bell’s been overworked lately.

Franklin Morales – Came into yesterday’s game in the 7th inning.  That just about does it for his value.

Troy Tulowitzki – Hit his 30th homer yesterday.  He also has 18 steals and a .290 average.  Yeah, he’s going to be above Rollins in the rankings next year.

Carlos Gonzalez – Sat out yesterday with a hamstring issue.  Guy who relies on his legs with a hamstring issue during the final ten days of the season is not someone you need to wait around for in one year leagues.  I know, it sucks.  I like him too.

Brad Penny – 8 IP, 1 ER.  Who doesn’t love NL West pitchers?  Who?  Show yourself!

Derrek Lee – Left the game in the ninth after his first attempt and steal of a base yesterday.  He didn’t come out of the game immediately, so hopefully it’s nothing major.  Or nothing, Major.  If that’s your rank.

Jacoby Ellsbury – Stole his 66th base yesterday.  Member a few years ago how excited people got about Crawford and would draft him in the 2nd round?  Well, Ellsbury is doing what Crawford used to do.  Steals don’t have a face, but if they did, I think they’d look a lot like Ellsbury.  Also, while I’m on the subject, who remembers in May of this year when Buster Olney said Crawford could steal 100?  Now, Olney’s forgotten more baseball than I’d ever know, but, seriously, when will people stop hyperbolizing what someone does through a month of baseball?  Guess it sells people on the ESPN Hindsighter.  Wow, this was a huge tangent.  Sorry.

Adam Kennedy – 3-for-5 with his 20th steal.  He’s batting .290 on the year with 11 HRs.  Member during your draft you couldn’t decide when to draft Alexei so you took him in the fifth round?  You would’ve been better off with Kennedy.  Who knew?

Eric Patterson – 6 for his last 10 with a steal and a homer.  He’s playing every day and could rack up steals quickly.

Michael Brantley – 2-for-5, and a steal.  See Eric Patterson, or 1/8 of an inch above.

David Aardsma – Returned from an injury to get a save.  What injury, you ask.  It turns out Aardsma was out for a few days with back stiffness.  In one of the more bizarre ways a player has been injured, his back stiffened while he was reading a book.  A relief pitcher hasn’t been hurt this bad from a book since Jose Mesa read Omar Vizquel’s tell-all book.