Ladies and Gentleman, I present to you my pièce de résistance!! Yes, applaud for me, revel in my greatness. I even broke out a fancy accent marked phrase, who does that but a pretentious liberal arts major with delusions of grandeur? This is my title fight, the list for which all prospectors are measured. It’s my Top 100 Prospects for 2017 Fantasy Baseball. Now that I’ve gotten beyond all the muckedy muck, let me explain a little about my list, and ranks. First: Yes I 100% factor in proximity, and it effects my rankings. Second: Upside is the most important factor. Third: Production in the minors matters to me. Unless it’s in a crazy ballpark (cough, cough FirstEnergy Stadium: Reading, Pa), or contradictory to batted ball data. I’ve been deep in my hole since early October breaking down every system in the minors, reviewing video on Youtube, looking at batted ball data, checking the stats, and reading any and every scouting report I can get my hands on. It’s one part eye test/ one part player profile/ one part production. I’ve been training all offseason for this, only my training involves sweat pants, a laptop, and lots of snacks. Speaking of snacks, I’m hungry let’s get into the list!! You already know who’s ranked first… It’s Top 100 Prospects day!Please, blog, may I have some more?
With these top 100 starters for 2017 fantasy baseball, I’ve finished our (my) 2017 fantasy baseball rankings for positions. Still coming will be a top 100 overall and top 500 to see how all the positions mesh together like your mesh Redskins jersey that meshes with your burgundy sweatpants. Trust me, when you see how long this post is, you’ll be glad I kept this intro short. As always, my projections are included, and where I see tiers starting and stopping. If you want an explanation of tiers, go back to the top 10 overall and start this shizz all over again. Anyway, here’s the top 100 starters for 2017 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
After a week of action like this week, I feel like I need a cigarette now that the winter meetings have come to a close. Lots of prospects moving, mostly to the Southside of Chicago, and lots of player evals to update. The work of a Prospector is truly never done. Of course your Loyal H.P.I.C, and my digital Sherpa Michael Halpern of imaginarybrickwall.com have to give you our two cents on the prospects changing laundry. We’ll let J.B. and the one true Fantasy Master Lothario Grey Albright update you on the re-draft league side of things. We have no need for yucky major leaguers. Oh and bee-t-dubs we go through the expansive and nearly never-ending talent pool that is the Houston Astros farm system. We talk some A.J. Reed, Francis Martes, Yuleski Gurriel, Kyle Tucker, and a whole bunch of others. It’s the closest thing Halp and I will ever have to a double album, it’s the Top Houston Astros Prospects on the latest episode of the Razzball Fantasy Baseball Prospect Podcast.Please, blog, may I have some more?
The White Sox traded Adam Eaton for Reynaldo Lopez, Dane Dunning and top pitching prospect, Lucas Giolito; the second day in a row top prospects are headed to the White Sox. It doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibilities that Theo Epstein is studying abroad this winter and abroad is the South Side of Chicago. “Excuse me, but, uh, why do you have this electrodes hooked up to my brain?” That’s Theo Epstein as Rick Hahn dips out of the interrogation room to get coffee. If I were a fan of a club that had no chance of winning next year, I’d want my team to go about rebuilding like the White Sox. “What, you don’t like our signing of Ian Desmond?” I’ll get to you in a second, Rockies. The White Sox have taken a bunch of lemons, planted lemon seeds next to a sugar plantation that they purchased off eBay and should have lemonade in a few years. They might even trade that old guy from the Country Time Lemonade commercial for another prospect! As for fantasy, Adam Eaton went 14/14 and 14/18 the last two years, which is deceptively awful. It’s one thing to go 14/14, it’s another thing to go 14/14 in 619 ABs. He’s like Markakis as a middle infielder. If you own Eaton in any fantasy league shallower than 14-team mixed, you should lose your league. The problem with a guy like Eaton in a shallower league is anyone who is even half paying attention should be able to beat his stats with just a few decent waiver wire grabs. You can likely beat Eaton’s numbers by just streaming hitters every day, and never even holding any guy who gets hot. Eaton’s stats come out to one homer and one steal every two weeks. Holy Jewish Jesus, that’s bad. Sure, there’s some value to his 90+ runs and .280+ average, but if you can’t get runs and average that matches that from streaming, again, you deserve to lose. For 2017, I’ll give Eaton the projections 102/12/49/.277/16 in 605 ABs. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2017 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
I have a predilection for highlighting fantasy baseball rookies that are of the hitter variety, and less so of the pitching type. I will also say I don’t 100% trust anyone that uses the word predilection in everyday conversation. They sound like they have a pedo-lection. Stretch a Home Depot slide ruler out 500 feet and talk to me from there. “What’s that? Having a hard time hearing you. No, don’t come within 500 feet of me. Thanks. Why? Because you used the word predilection.” Pitchers are just so flaky. Last year, Michael Fulmer, with little-to-no fanfare, was a top 30 starter for all of fantasy as a rookie. If you predicted that, you’re a liar or a time traveller. Mean’s while, Giolito had a 6.75 ERA in 21 1/3 IP. How was Corey Kluber in the minors? How was Arrieta? The list goes on with pitchers that weren’t great in the minors that broke out in the majors. Then on the opposite side of things, great pitching prospects who reached the career levels of Nadir Bupkis. In regards to this, there’s actually a well-worn acronym by Baseball Prospectus that is TINSTAAPP, which is There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect. So, this is the 2nd year in a row I’ve gone to the Lucas Giolito well, well (stutterer!), he deserves it. Here’s what I said last year, “Before watching the video on Lucas Giolito, I looked at his vitals. This is something I don’t usually do. Doesn’t really matter to me if a guy is six-foot-one or five-ten. But, dizzamn, Giolito is a strapping young man, huh? He’s listed at six-six and 230. He’s only 21 years old, but I think he’s done growing. Hopefully, cause his mom tells CBS Sports that his “feet already hang off the bed.” With a six-six frame, as you can imagine, he throws fast. (Christall Young is the exception that proves the rule, which never made any sense to me. If it’s an exception, how does it prove anything? It proves that there’s exceptions, but that’s about it, right? I’m gonna move on before my brain hurts in my thought-nodes.) Giolito hits 97 MPH on his fastball, which is actually up a tick from the previous year. If he keeps steadily increasing his fastball every year, by the time he’s 40 years old, he’s going to be throwing 117 MPH. He throws from nearly right over the top, so the ball fires downhill and hitters have no chance of hitting it. A 9+ K/9 seems to be a given once he gets settled in the majors. In 20 years, Al Pacino could be playing the role of a Hall of Fame pitcher in the film, Giolito’s Way. Assuming Pacino has eighteen-inch stilettos.” And that’s me quoting me! Anyway, what can we expect from Lucas Giolito for 2017 fantasy baseball?Please, blog, may I have some more?
God really doesn’t want us to have nice things as prospectors, so he’s blessed us with his other begotten son, Tim Tebow! That’s right it’s a Tim Tebow-centric pod today, as we open up this week’s show discussing his immaculate connection with a batting practice fastball in instructional ball. Michael Halpern and I have a much longer discussion of The Tebow’s baseball prospects, then either of us ever hoped to have. The conclusion: I think we may have a superstar brewing in the NL East……and his name is Kevin Maitan. (See what I did there?) We talk about the top international signing, since the last top international signing, and where we’ll be ranking him come February. We then run wild with the theme of this week’s show, the Top 10 Prospect Disappointments of 2016. So we spend most of the hour dumping on players we expected to have big seasons. It’s just the level of negativity I thrive in. Hold on tight y’all it’s the latest episode of the Razzball Prospect Podcast.Please, blog, may I have some more?
To paraphrase Apu Nahasapeemapetilon, “America has so many enemies: Iran, Iraq, China, Mordor, Josh Tomlin in away games, Justin Upton, Melvin Upton for the last two months, Clint Hurdle, the people on Twitter that take a trending topic and attach linkbait, Giancarlo Stanton’s groin when its injured, but not at all when its healthy, anyone that gets Mookie Betts out the once-in-a-blue-moon when someone can get him out, Clint Hurdle again, anyone that doesn’t appreciate blue raspberry, undesirable immigrants, by which I mean everyone that came after Carlos Martinez.” Yesterday, Carlos Martinez went 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners with 13 Ks to lower his ERA to 3.07. Thank you, come again! From last year to this year, C-Mart’s strikeout rate is down (9.2 to 7.8), his walk rate is unchanged, his velocity is virtually the same and his xFIP is up due to a lucky BABIP. So, what does that mean for Carlos Martinez 2017? Random prediction alert! I won’t be enthused about drafting him again next year, but he’ll likely be a solid #2 fantasy starter, i.e., good in a pinch, but not exciting, i.e., convenience forever, freshness never! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Gerrit Cole has an injured arm, possibly elbow spurs. I love this scenario: a pitcher throws like garbage for weeks then the team announces he’s hurt. Love, love, love. This is my favorite. Five innings, five runs, but it’s likely nothing, just a bad start. Cut to five weeks later of terrible starts. “Oh, yeah, he’s got a torn tendon/elbow spur/missing forearm due to lost baggage. Oops! We should’ve sent him to a doctor six starts ago. Our bad!” Here’s what I said after his last start, “I don’t know what’s going on with Cole, but I’d guess injury or dead arm.” And that’s me quoting me! How is it that I can guess there’s a problem but a major league team can’t figure shizz out? That should never be possible. I couldn’t even pass Bio 101, and a MLB team has a staff of doctors. Seriously, how does this happen? I want answers! Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Salutations my loyal Razzscalians, and welcome to the latest installment of The Minor League update. I’m your Prospector and Chief Ralph Lifshitz and today I’d like to discuss a mighty slugger from The Great White North. A man with the forearms of a spinach swigging Popeye. A hitter with a swing so strong, that balls explode off his bat head like forgotten land mines in former war zones. The thunderous prospect I speak of is none other than the Mariners Tyler O’neill. The outfielder was a player that popped into many managers favorite prospects lists over the past few months, including yours truly. I mean what’s not to like about Tyler O’Neill “Prospect Power King of the North.”Please, blog, may I have some more?
I was all about some of that young prospect snell early in the season, ranking Blake Snell within my top-75 preseason ranks. He destroyed the Minors in 2015, then was a little iffy when he hit the Majors for the first time. HE’S AWFUL FOREVER! As we see 95% of the time, initial failure means a prospect is forgotten, even if they start putting up solid numbers a month or two later.
And such was the case for Snell, who had a 3.86 ERA over his first 5 starts (passable), but a horrific 20:15 K:BB and a WHIP close to 2.00. He’s no Trevor Rosenthal! That aforementioned success in the Minors came with some control issues as well, so it stood to reason he might need a little more refinement. On top of that, I watched a few of his starts and his stuff looked a little too “loopy” for me. I have no idea if that makes sense… But it looked like a lot of huge rolling movement, with nothing crisp, ala a Corey Kluber or Jake Arrieta cutter. Just very bendy.
Things have gotten a lot better lately though, with a 24:11 K:BB heading into yesterday’s start against the Yanks in 24 innings. As such a highly regarded prospect and with good pure stuff that I think just needed that little extra “umpf” of crispness, I bought in heavily across my leagues and in last week’s ranks. But I figured it would be a good idea to see for myself if his breaking stuff looks a tad better than when I saw it in his 2nd and 3rd starts. Here’s how he looked:Please, blog, may I have some more?