Fantasy Baseball Advice

As we mentioned earlier this month, we created an ‘expert’ league that follows the same rules as the Razzball Commenter League and will be included in the master standings.  Will the Expert League reign supreme (Iron Chef^TM) in competitive index or will several RCL leagues put the experts in their place?  We shall see…

Here are the participants in the first annual Razzball ‘Expert’ League (links if they posted a draft review):

Razzball – Grey Albright
Razzball – Rudy Gamble
Yahoo! – Brandon Funston
Yahoo! – Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! – Andy Behrens
FanGraphs – Eno Sarris
Hardball Times – Jonathan Halket
MLBTradeRumors.com/RotoAuthority – Tim Dierkes
Mastersball – Ryan Carey
Rotowire – Dalton Del Don
SI.com – Eric Mack
Steamer Projections – Dash Davidson

Here’s a link to the entire Draft Recap:

Grey:

As mentioned in our 2nd podcast, ESPN screwed me for messing with them for the last five years.  Right before my 1st pick, my computer crashed.  Here’s me during the draft.  “Hey, I have the 7th pick.  Awesome.  I’m gonna have a 1st baseman.  I might even get Votto.  I wonder who that lady is watering her lawn across the street.  Maybe I’ll stand up carefully to make sure I don’t knock over my coffee and get a better look–NOOOOOO!  Crap, mother-effin’, son-of-a-motherless-goat!  Reboot!  Reboot!  Reboot!  Okay, it’s rebooting… I have a minute and thirty seconds… Reboot!  DAH!  I drafted Robinson Cano!”  And then that dictated just about all my other hitter picks.  Since I had Cano, I couldn’t grab Kinsler, didn’t want a shortstop and the only 1st baseman or 3rd baseman within the vicinity was Tex and I wasn’t drafting him with my 18th pick.  So I took Giancarlo.  Then I really felt like I needed to make sure I had some sorta corner man so I reached for Zimmerman.  Not feeling totally comfortable with Zimmerman as my 3rd baseman, I reached for Hosmer for my other corner.  Then I felt like if Zimmerman got hurt again, I should have another 3rd baseman, so I grabbed Aramis, then I realized later on that Aramis wasn’t a clean bill of health either so I grabbed Chisenhall.  Then I dropped Chisenhall when he was demoted and grabbed Smoak for the two game Japaning Day, then, when those games ended, I grabbed Eric Thames.

I may have 5 aces when it’s all said and done.  I wouldn’t even need Gio on this staff, but he fell so far down that I wasn’t going to let him go.  I’m not worried about saves, even if my closers are little iffy.  SAGNOF!  Since I had Cano and Hosmer, I took some guys that may be average drains, but should give steals and power.  Though, I do think average will be one of my biggest concerns.  In true Grey fashion (I love to pick up and drop players and talk about myself in third person), I’ve already made a few moves on pitching too.  Dropped Fuentes (right after Balfour became the closer) and grabbed Bourgeois.  Bourgeois is the kinda of guy that if he sneaks into a large playing role or if I switch him in only when he plays, he could get me 30 cheap steals.  SAGNOF!  I dropped Stauffer and grabbed Lidge when Storen was hurting (Clippard was drafted) and dropped Crain for Henry Rodriguez.  It’s a bit of a shizzshow, but, in some ways, I like to be able to juggle my last roster spots so I don’t care I wasted a pick on Chisenhall, Fuentes, etc.  Rudy gets a lot more tied to his drafts than I do.  In the end, I think I still have a solid team.  By the time you read this, I may have made three more pick-ups and drops.

Rudy:

At this point in the draft season, I’m starting to get predictable in my early round draft behavior.  I was really happy picking 10th with the confidence that either Joey Votto or (more likely) Adrian Gonzalez would fall to me and I wouldn’t have to worry about overpaying for a 1B later in the draft.  As luck should have it, Grey’s computer crashed and he auto-picked Robinson Cano vs. his preferred Joey Votto pick who came gift-wrapped to me at #10.   Longoria was an easy choice at #15 as I figured there would still be top SPs on the board by the time I picked next at #34.  The experts were more aggressive than I figured at drafting SPs however as Halladay, Kershaw, Verlander, Lee, F-Her, and Lincecum were all off the board.  Luckily, I liked Greinke slightly more than F-Her and Lincecum.  But I also liked Jay Bruce for this pick and, in retrospect, probably should’ve gamed Greinke was the more likely of the two to make it me at pick #39.  Hunter Pence was the consolation prize.

I spread out my SP selections and seemed to have a lot of success nabbing K-friendly pitchers (Lester, Beachy, Morrow).  I specifically drafted Lewis and Nolasco in later rounds because of their solid WHIPs (which help balance out Morrow).  For the first time in years, I drafted the first closer off the board (Kimbrel – 6th round/63rd pick) as the value was too great given his obscene K-rate.  Marmol and Putz came at decent values at Rounds 11/12 and I was glad to be done with closers before a closer run occurred (10 closers went in the next 33 picks after Putz).

As for offense, I just drafted for value and was able to avoid inadvertently punting AVG or SBs.  I reached for Jose Altuve whom I think has 30 SB upside with solid AVG and, like several of my teams this year, got solid R/RBI value out of my other MI spots (Alexei Ramirez, Neil Walker).

All in all, this was about as good of a draft as I could’ve hoped for.  I don’t think my team has any major weaknesses and hopefully my team has good injury karma.  It’ll be interesting to see how well I do in this type of format (12 team, daily changes) – especially without Grey as co-manager

Did you know that Vapors song, Turning Japanese, is about masturbation?  Because when said act is done, a man squints, hence turning Japanese.  Things that are offensive aren’t always racist, but, in this case, they are.  Too bad The Vapors follow up single, “When I Really Have To Pee, I Dance Like A Cherokee” never climbed the charts.  So this morning, Selig, on advice from his toupee, is taking the greatest day, Opening Day, and putting it up against infomercials and a three hour loop of the Emergency Broadcast Network.  Why the hell is Opening Day at 3:05 AM Pacific Standard Time, you ask.  Because Selig is a f*cking idiot.  That asterisk is a U, by the way.  In case that wasn’t clear.  Way to excite the next generation of baseball fans.  Take Opening Day 6,000 miles west and have the two worst teams play.  Could we not get the Padres to play the Washington Generals in Cape Horn?  Anyway, for fantasy baseball, pick up anyone who may play, especially in H2H leagues.  They’re all fair game.  If I were you, I’d focus on the hitters.  From what I’ve read, Japanese ballparks are smaller…. They’re definitely smaller than O.co and Safeco.  I already grabbed Smoak in one league.  If I saw Pennington and I had room, I’d get me some.  Kurt Suzuki?  What the hey!  Seth Smith?  Do it!  Mike Carp, or as the Japanese say “Mike Sashimi,” grab him!  Middle relievers or the starters for the 2nd game, Vargas and Colon, are fair game, too.  Don’t drop anyone that is obviously valuable for your team just for a two game series that you can’t even watch because it’s four hours before dawn on the West Coast!  But I’ll take any leg up on my competition because, remember, a leg up on the competition means you’re urinating on them.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Justin Smoak – Did he hit a home run this morning?  I hope so, but I’m writing this prior to 3 AM Pacific Standard Time so I have no clue.  Once again, eff Bud Selig.

Mat Latos – Left yesterday’s start with a mild calf strain.  Latos said, “I don’t know the layman’s terms of what’s going on but I’m fine.”  Isn’t that layman’s terms?  Latos said he’d make his next scheduled start.  I own Latos all over the place this year, and I’m not concerned.  It’s not an arm injury; he should be fine, or however they say it in layman’s terms.  Dusty’s Toothpick said, “Dusty and I plan on stretching Latos’s calf out on a medieval rack.  He’ll be good as new,” then Dusty’s Toothpick stroked his white cat.

Sean Marshall – Dusty is saying that he might choose to go with the dreaded closerousel, right after I went over all of the fantasy baseball closers.  Actually, I think this is a non-story.  The only thing that could happen is Marshall falters in April and someone else steps up.  Otherwise, Dusty will be all over Sean Marshall like Russell Brand was all over Sarah Marshall.

Lonnie Chisenhall – Optioned to the minors.  Well, my last round grab in one league is already gone as the Indians went with Jack Hannahan.  Maybe he threatened them with a liger.

Miguel Cabrera – Team doctors cleared him to get back to action and he should be fine for Opening Day.  This is a happy day for Miggy owners.  Miggy, “Is a happy day like a happy hour for twenty-four straight hours?”

Marlon Byrd – Nats and Braves have expressed interest.  They are going for Marlon Byrd after striking out in signing his more talented brothers, Damon and Keenen Ivory Byrd.

Nolan Arenado - Casey Blake did not make the club with them opting for a blahtoon of Chris Nelson and Jordan Pacheco until Nolan Arenado is ready.  This is surprising to me.  Just yesterday I put up the 2012 fantasy baseball rookies post and left off Nolan Arenado because I didn’t think he had a legitimate chance for good playing time this year before midseason, but now I’m thinking we might see him as early as June 1st.  If you’re not familiar with Nolan Arenado (BTW, his name only sounds right to me when you say the whole thing like Bobby Fischer or Mr. T), he won the AFL MVP (My acronyms got awards, snitches!).  AFL line was .388/.423/.636 in 121 ABs with 6 homers to go along with his 2011 minor league line of .298/.349/.487 and 20 homers and 122 RBIs in 517 ABs.  His minor league numbers were actually put up in a park that reduces home run numbers too.  Now that I’ve tempted you by the fruit of his booms get a load of this –>  He’s a 3rd baseman who will be playing his home games in Coors Field!  Hello, beautiful, it’s good to see you.  You are so not Ian Stewart.  That flake.  See, Nolan Arenado doesn’t strike out like a Donkey, Mini, Mini Mini or otherwise.  He walks.  He walks, you sexy beast!  Also, screw you, Garrett Atkins!  Go back to being a subject of the TV show, Whatever Happened to Garrett Atkins?  Something that wasn’t mentioned during my effusiveness (that’s a real word! (I think)) is those minor league numbers were in High-A.  He needs to see Double-A pitching, unless he’s a cyborg and he kills all pitching like Reggie wanted to kill the Queen.  In redraft leagues for right now, it’s too early to pick him up or draft him, but, what can I say, Rockies get me excited or exited if C’s scare you because of too many games of Words With Friends.  Now in keepers or dynasty leagues, I’d make sure to grab him later on for cheap when you’re filling out your bench.

Jordan Pacheco – Hey, his name sounds familiar… Oh, I just mentioned him.  Yeah, he’s in the Rockies 3rd base blahtoon.  He’s not much to talk about right now — so why do I keep talking about him?!  Well, he has catcher eligibility in some leagues, so those in deep 2 catcher leagues, he could be a play.

Nolan Reimold – Blue Jays recently inquired about Reimold.  I guess six outfielders/DHs isn’t enough.  Maybe Reimold can keep company with my other post-hype-I-keep-calling-him-a-sleeper-but-when-is-it-happening Travis Snider.

Jerry Sands – Dodgers sent him packing to the minors, opting for Juan Rivera.  The last time a Rivera replaced a Sands, they needed six bulldozers and permission from Bugsy Siegel.  Colletti was probably enamored with Rivera’s one good month last year, which was a Mirage.  I think it’ll turn out for everyone that this is a no Wynn.

Elvis Andrus – Left yesterday’s game with a tight hip.  Rangers said he’d be fine by Thursday.  Or, he’s too hip to be impaired, if you’re into Huey Lewis.

Scott Podsednik – Looking like a better bet to get a roster spot than Juan Pierre.  He’s hitting .362 and yesterday he homered off the bench.  I wonder who was pitching for the ball to go into the dugout so he could homer off the bench.  Is Oliver Perez back in baseball?

Brent Morel – Hit a homer yesterday, which is whatever, but I just wanted to remind people about my Brent Morel sleeper post.  I wrote it while washing my undercarriage.

Curtis Granderson – Was scratched with elbow soreness.  I’m usually scratched with elbow itchiness.  The Yankees don’t seem concerned, but they are sending him for an MRI.  For those that didn’t listen to my Curtis Granderson overrated post, prepare for me to be gleeful if his injury is serious.

Wade Davis – Will head to the bullpen with Jeff Niemann going into the 5th starter spot.  I’m not a fan of either guy, so this is whatever for fantasy, but I did notice an interesting resemblance with Jeff Niemann and this guy.

Mike Aviles – Red Sox announced he would be their starting shortstop.  No surprise here; they just made it official by optioning down Iglesias, who would be a non-factor anyway for 12-team leagues unless you count UZR as a statistic.

Jack Cust – Released by the Astros.  When pressed for comment, Jack cussed.  He was a three outcome pickup – awful starter, mediocre bench pickup, or preseason cut.  Cust kayin’.

This one goes out to the guy – one of the three TB fans that can actually be seen at a game – who was holding up the sign ‘Free Russ Canzler!’ last year.  You didn’t see that sign?  Yeah I didn’t either, mainly because it wasn’t there but since I don’t have cable I can’t verify that.  Can someone please tell me why a team that has been in the playoffs for 3 of the last 4 years doesn’t get more people at the actual ballpark without offering a Zimbear?  But back to what I had to say, Canzler was never going to see the light of day in Tampa Bay (How about I just go eat some hay. I could make things out of clay, and lay by the bay…) because he is not good at defense.  But this is a fantasy baseball blog, why should we care about defense?  Good question, hypothetical reader and the answer is simple: The Rays play real baseball against real teams…sorry, you expected more?  Oh, well Canzler has to play somewhere in order to be useful.  Their OF is full, the position he played in AAA is covered by Evan Longoria and they found their DH for the year in Luke Scott.  Also, the Rays are one of the top fielding teams in baseball.  There’s a reason a guy like Casey Kotchman got a shot to start at 1B for them last year and it wasn’t for his bat or his rapier-like wit.  They field a strong defensive ball club and Canzler was anything but a strong defender.  He racked up 13 errors at third base alone in 2011; fine numbers if he were a Milwaukee Brewer, but not for a utility role in TB.

So as the story goes, Canzler was traded to Cleveland in February for two meat pies and a 6 month subscription to Vibe magazine (every word after ‘February’ is still pending verification).  But why should we get excited about a soon to be 26 year old with only five major league plate appearances on his resume?  Sing it with me now:  Opportunity, opportunity, is knockin at your door…sorry, I started doing the jitterbug there for a second.  Russ has a healthy walk rate and has exhibited strong power numbers over the last two years, posting a .279 ISO in AA for the Cubs and a .215 last year in AAA for the Rays.  With a minor league K% rate above 20 percent, he’ll most likely saddle you in a totally non-sexual way with a .260 average.  That’s a’ight, but the ISO is what has me interested and also that I can’t tell you who is going to bat 6th in that lineup.  I can tell you Travis Hafner probably bats 5th when he’s healthy *Snickers*…the laugh, not the candy bar.  Sorry, the last time Hafner played in over 130 games was 2007.  Plus, Grady Sizemore needs a bench friend to swap funny doctor visit stories with over the course of the year.  I also can’t tell you whether Kotchman holds down the job at first all year.  I could go into extreme detail, but let’s just say his average from last year had a lot to do with his ground ball rate and how well that played on Tampa Bay turf.  He won’t be as bad as he was in Seattle but surely not as good as he was for the Rays.  With Lonnie Chisenhall looking more and more like he could use a AAA stint to start the season,  the Indians could use a little pop in their lineup.  Right now, Canzler is unowned basically everywhere — ESPN, Fleaflicker, Yahoo.  If he can get a starting job, he might land in a prime RBI slot.  With enough at-bats, 18 HRs and 90 RBIs is attainable.  Yeah, I know it’s not that exciting, but wait there’s more!  Alright, actually there’s not.  I just always wanted to say that.

I hate these stupid beyotchabatukises too.  No love lost here!  Though I’m not sure if that means you love someone or you hate them.  I’m trying to think the last time I heard someone say no love lost and if they were saying it happily or angrily.  I think it was angrily, but they might have had no idea what they were talking about either.  Well, with love lost or not, I still want a 3rd baseman earlier on.  I’d prefer to not have to take a flyer from these schmohawks.  Though they are different levels of schmo-ness.  Some are definitely less schmo-y.  As mentioned in my 2nd basemen to target or was it 1st basemen to target or catchers to target, in one of those I mentioned how if a position is deep I want a top guy unless it’s pitchers.  Yeah, if the position is shallow, I don’t want a flyer.  I’d prefer to have a flyer where most have flyers.  This is contrary to popular opinion; maybe I’ll win a Pulitzer for this shizz.  Speaking of Pulitzers, I had dinner recently with someone who won a Pulitzer.  I can’t even spell Pulitzer without the spellchecker.  Anyone who can spell it, should win it.  They only mentioned their Pulitzer three times over the course of two hours.  I would’ve been wearing the Pulitzer medallion around my neck (is it a medallion?).  I would put my name in to a restaurant hostess as “Pulitzer.”  When a waiter came by for our drink orders, I would ask for a whiskey with a splash of Pulitzer.  The Pulitzer person was now working at US Weekly.  I asked if they won the Pulitzer for their Octamom coverage.  They weren’t amused.  This list is 3rd basemen that can be had later in your drafts.  Look at this as a supplement to the top 20 3rd basemen of 2012 fantasy baseball.  Where applicable, click on the players name to read more about them or to see their 2012 projections.  Anyway, here’s some 3rd basemen to target for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Ian Stewart – Can you believe I didn’t write a sleeper post about Ian Stewart?  Yes, I’ve written one about him for the last three years.  I meant, can you believe I didn’t write one this year?  You know what that means, right?  This is the year he finally puts his shizz together and earns his Mini Mini Donkey brays.

Danny Valencia – I wrote a sleeper post about Valencia but I haven’t posted it yet because, frankly, I’m not sure I ever will.  Just not sure how much I want to endorse him.  This says a lot about Danny Valencia.  Maybe I’ll post the Valencia sleeper article the same day I post my Leonys Martin sleeper post that I’m also not sure if I’m ever going to publish.

Mike Moustakas – In a whole mess of fairly uninspiring sleeper/3rd basemen to target, here’s a name that’s got me excitakas.  He had a solid September last year and could shoot the rankings for next year.

Mat Gamel – I am a time traveler.  True story.  And I come from the future.  In the future, I listened to the Brewers play-by-play of Gamel playing first.  It went like this.  “That’s a dribbler to first to end the inning… Ooh, got through the ol’ wickets.  Gamel chases the ball up the line… Grabs it and throws the ball into the stands?  Hmm… He was facing the wrong way.  Mistake anyone could make.  Now he’s going into the stands to retrieve the ball… Batter is rounding home, Gamel grabs… What I believe is a soda, nachos combo… And throws it home!  Ooh, runner is in just under the tag with the umpire screaming, ‘That’s nacho ball!’”

Lonnie Chisenhall – The Indians should have a Chiz in the Hall day where all fans dressed in drag get in free.  I just thought of that, but you can have it Indians marketing team, it’s yours.  Right now, Asdrubal is penciled into the three hole.  Luckily, they’re using pencil cause I don’t think that stays.  Asdrubal will move up, Choo will move up, Sizemore will retire, Kipnis will move down, Santana will stay where he is, which leaves Chisenhall batting…  Hmm, I have no idea.  I just got totally confused.  He’ll probably start the season at the bottom of the order, but move up to fifth or sixth by May.

Pedro Alvarez – I think the Pirates give Alvarez every opportunity to succeed, which is not to say he will.  If he does start at 3rd, he still has a dirty/ugly/synonym K-rate and could provide a lot of nothing, which, according to Aristotle, is but a receptacle in which objects of matter can be placed.  One object that could be placed there is McGehee (but if he’s playing 3rd base, he really should go by M.C. Gehee).

Look at you getting two posts today, which we will continue until next October.  It’s an exciting time to be alive.  Kinda like in the 1300′s when doorknobs were invented and people no longer needed to axe down the door to enter their house.  So how about those Cleveland Indians brimming with prospects?  It’s the biggest Native American bounty since the original Thanksgiving.  Fingers crossed these Indians aren’t practically wiped from existence, then almost 400 years later Lonnie Chisenhall‘s great-great grandniece is allowed to open a casino.  Lonnie Chisenhall was called up in the middle of last season, like a firefly without a light.  In his first full month, he hit two homers and .217, like a slow torch burning.  In his 2nd month, he didn’t do much better, like a key that could use a little turning.  Seemed like he should’ve been getting somewhere.  Then in September, he hit four homers and .279.  Like a madman laughing at the rain.  If you knew those were Soul Asylum lyrics, pat yourself on the back…with a knife.  I’ll take that September month from Chisenhall every day of the week and twice on Muesday if we can get that from him every month next year, but can we?  Let’s see what we can expect of Lonnie Chisenhall in 2012 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Chisenhall’s BABIP during his torrid-for-him month of September was .308.  That’s close to doable for him, but his walk rate was pathetic last year.  In 21 games in August, he didn’t walk once.  His K-rate wasn’t great either.  So .279 seems doable, but highly unlikely.  He looks more like a .250 hitter.  In September, his HR/FB was 16.0%, which is a little high for him, making 4 homers per month on the high side, too.  For 2012, he’s gonna be more of a 3 to 4 homer per month guy, so you’re looking at between 18-24 homers.  The Indians are saying that Jack Hannahan will compete in Spring Training for the 3rd base job with Chisenhall, but that’s just talk to motivate Chisenhall.  There’s no way Jack Hannahan will win the starting job unless he brings one of his ligers into the clubhouse and releases it on Chisenhall.  Since Lonnie was able to finally start to put it together in September, I’m gonna be optimistic and say he gives us 65/20/80/.250/3.  Not exactly rewriting the record books, but more than serviceable if you can get him cheap in your fantasy drafts and he has some upside.   Muahahahahaha!  Sorry, still laughing like a madman at the rain.