I need to thank frequent commenter ltf for today’s lead. Tim Wheeler (COL, OF) has not been a highly touted prospect in the Rockies farm system – ranked number 21 overall. Since my Scouting the Unknown article written on June 1, 2011, he has hit 10 more home runs (6 weeks). With 24 home runs at Double-A and two multiple home run games in the last 10 days. Wheeler is positioning himself to skyrocket up the prospect ranking charts in 2012 while playing in the hitting friendly environment of his home park (Tulsa) and the Texas League. Is currently slashing .312/.392/.598 in 356 AB with 48 XBH (24 Hr) and 15 steals in 24 attempts with a 93:38 K:BB ratio. Keep a close eye on him, as the Rockies continue to spawn outfielders.
Tyler Skaggs | ARI | LHP (SP): Promoted to Double-A. First outing was poor at best: Gave up 5 runs, 10 baserunners (2 walks) and had 6 strikeouts in 4 innings. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
Drew Pomeranz | CLE | RHP (SP): Promoted to Double-A after rocking High-A with 95 strikeouts, 32 walks and a 1.87 ERA in 77 innings. Unlike Skaggs, Pomeranz’s debut went exceptionally well. Over 4 2/3 innings, he allowed one run (on a home run), 4 baserunners (1 walk) and had 5 strikeouts.
J.D. Martinez | HOU | RF: Check out the recent article by John Sickels detailing Martinez. Also see Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
Brett Lawrie | TOR | 2B/3B:Took batting practice last Sunday. A step in the right direction. We’re still looking at a mid-to-late August call up.
Alex Cobb | TB | RHP (SP): Will get the start on Monday (7/19/11) against the Yankees. He’s been very inconsistent when on the mound in the majors. Even with two wins and a sterling 3.41 ERA, I would avoid starting him on Monday.
Tyler Flowers | CHW | C: He was called up on 7/10/11 but has yet to see any playing time. This was expected. Nevertheless, if given playing time, he has the ability to hit 10 home runs over the rest of the season. Or kill your team’s average.
Logan Forsythe | SD | 2B: According to “unnamed sources,” Forsythe was recalled, again, on Friday to fill out the depth chart and fulfill the utility player role. Only in the deepest of NL leagues is he worth your time.
Brett Jackson | CHC | CF: Promoted to Triple-A on 7/15/11. Appears to be on track for a September promotion.
Jacob Turner | DET | RHP (SP): Jim Leyland stated that Turner’s chances of reaching the majors this year are a long shot. I would expect him to remain in the minors for this year and have every opportunity to win a starting job out of Spring Training. He has posted a 3.49 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 79/29 K/BB ratio over 100 2/3 innings at Double-A this year.
Zach McAllister | CLE | RHP (SP): Per Rotoworld (7/15/11), “Zach McAllister and David Huff are the prime candidates to be promoted from Triple-A Columbus to start for the Indians during Monday’s doubleheader.” I’d run far and fast in the other direction from these two options in all normal scenarios. However, they will be facing Minnesota. In deeper leagues, it would could be worth the stream start. I’d lean towards McAllister receiving the call.
Yesterday, Joakim Soria lost the closer job yesterday to Aaron Crow. Yeah, and pigeons fly. Wait, they do. Wait II, The Return of Wait, maybe that makes sense. Yeah, I think it does. Thank you, left side of the brain for working with the right side. Glad you’re talking again. You guys rock! The ax falling on The Mexicutioner was a long time coming. He only had one save in May and had given up 7 runs in 9 1/3 IP. He wasn’t much better in April. In June, he could get the job back. Your deity of choice knows that Aaron Crow isn’t really all that great but he is the guy for right now. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Alfonso Soriano – With yesterday’s game with a strained quad. He’ll probably go to the DL by the time you read this, assuming you dinnit stay up to read this at 12:26 AM PST when it was posted. (BTW, Didn’t and I went our separate ways. It’s now dinnit or bust. Don’t, you’re on notice!)
Tony Campana – Yesterday, he had 4 steals (on only one hit!). I’d like to introduce Campana to my right clickie finger that picks players off waivers. In the minors, he showed bonkers speed. Or sponkers, if you enjoy portmanteaus. Not just fast, but crazy. One year, 48 steals in 131 games and 20 times caught stealing. Tony Campana runs like he just sniffed a mountain of coke and killed some cockroaches. With Byrd still recouping, Soriano likely headed to the DL and the Cubs needing a spark plug, I picked up Campana wherever I could. He’s probably nothing but a short term SAGNOF’er, but member what Jason Bourgeois did a month ago? Yeah, you do. Now come here and let me pinch your cheeks!
Kelly Johnson – 4-for-6 and 2 homers yesterday. Now has 4 homers and 6 steals while batting .190– Oh no, he doesn’t. That’s what he had on May 13th when I told you to buy him. He now has 9 homers, 8 steals and raised his average 52 points.
Justin Upton – 5-for-5, 3 runs, 3 RBIs, his 10th home run and 10th steal. I own him in a few leagues, so this is partially selfish of me, but I’d love for him to have his star mitzvah this year. Say 35 homers, 20 steals and a .280 average while becoming a first round draft pick for next year. That would be nice. (BTW, I can neither confirm or deny this, but Vin Scully checked in on the Arizona game and said Justin Upton was 5-for-5 with a home run when Upton was 4-for-4 with no home run. Then Upton hit a home run 15 minutes later.)
Juan Miranda – 0-for-4 while the Diamondbacks scored 15 runs. Ticker tease!
Jose Reyes – Out for 3-7 days with the death of his grandmother. As someone who was raised by their abuelita, I feel for Reyes, but, well, my fantasy team kinda needs him. Oh, man, I’m a bad person.
Ike Davis – Still having pain in his ankle. A Met having an injury setback? That is uber crazy. Yeah, I said uber. Deal with it!
Charlie Morton – 6 IP, 1 ER, 11 baserunners, 4 Ks. Put eleven baserunners in six innings and only one earned run into Fangraphs Database and you get the error message, “Does not compute.”
Pablo Sandoval – Sounds like he’s about a week and a half away. Or at least that’s the rumor why the Giants clubhouse manager went to Costco for a 128-count Chipwich box.
Brandon Crawford – 1-for-3 with his first steal after hitting a granny in the first game of his career. (That better not had been Jose Reyes’s granny!) He has very, very modest power and speed (like 7/7 over the course of a season). To give you of an idea of how deep the league needs to be to grab him, he’s available in one of my NL-Only leagues.
Eric Patterson – 2-for-5 and has led off two of the last three games! *small voice* But he’s hitting .189. *big voice* He’s stolen 2 bases in those starts! *small voice* He doesn’t play every day. Okay, I’d look at him in NL-Only leagues or deeper leagues for a short term boost on speed. To put it in New Jersey terms, you pass through Patterson, you don’t stay there.
Logan Forsythe – Here’s another NL-Only shout out. He’s playing every day for the Padres, though you’d think if Forsythe was in SoCal, he’d be saying hello to the Angels. He doesn’t have much power and Petco will suppress that further. “Stop smothering me, Petco! I mean, mothering. Actually, I don’t.” Forsythe has five homer power and teen speed. Think a poor man’s Bartlett, i.e. the cupboards are Barelett.
Tim Hudson – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks. Other than the mollywhopping he took at the hands of the Angels, he’s been decent if a bit yawnstipating with Ks.
Mike Napoli – 3-for-6, 5 RBIs and two more homers to bring his total to 10. When he seeks revenge on you for dropping him, he does it swiftly and decisively.
Jayson Nix – Him and brother, Laynce, hit homers yesterday. Today, their brother, Jaymes, drinks himself into a stupor for being the black sheep of the family.
Eric Young Jr. – Another day, another steal. Okay, I’m not talking about him again until Friday’s Buy.
Francisco Liriano – To the DL when the MRI revealed shoulder inflammation. The MRI also revealed it was glad it didn’t draft him.
Phil Hughes – Could be back by July. Yanks said they won’t push him. Put him near traffic and I’ll give him a little shove.
Raul Ibanez – 1-for-3 with his 4th homer in the last week. Frequent commenter, Hans, mentioned Ibanez’s recent hot streak in the comments (appropriate!). I was going to talk about Ibanez yesterday, because he has been crazy hot, it’s just so hard to generate excitement about him and unless you ask, “Between him or Cuddyer,” I’m probably going to say the other guy.
Nick Blackburn – 6 IP, 5 ER. I love corrections to schmohawks. Schadenfreude!
Danny Espinosa – Hit his 8th homer yesterday and has 4 steals on the season. When he ends the season with a .250 average, 20 homers and 10 steals, you’re gonna wonder why you dropped him.
Mike Morse – Another day, another home run. You’re waiting way too long to pick him up. You, “Who me?” Yeah, you.
Jay Bruce – 3-for-4, 3 RBIs with his 16th home run. Could Bruce sneak into the first round next year? Nah, probably not. But he’s moving into the 2nd.
Hanley Ramirez – Out again with what he described as “the worst (pain) he has ever felt.” I betcha there’s quite a few of his fantasy owners that would like to help Hanley continue to break his personal pain threshold record.
Hunter Pence – 3-for-4, 4 runs, 2 RBIs and his 7th home run. Pence is one of those players that stays exactly on pace for his end of the year stats all year long. Minute he starts to fall off pace, he’ll hit a home run or steal a base.
Torii Hunter – 3-for-5, 4 RBIs and two home runs. One for each I.
Mark Trumbo – 2-for-5 with his 2nd home run in as many days. It’s the smart move to keep him in the lineup. Still waiting for the Sciosciapath to make the not smart move.
Fernando Rodney – Got the save yesterday. Walden gave up two runs the day before and threw 37 pitches, so this is probably nothing, but — and unless you’re an alien there’s always a but — I still grabbed Rodney in leagues where I need saves. In May, Walden has a 5.54 ERA, 1.77 WHIP; Rodney hasn’t given up a run in the past week. (Yeah, I’m cherrypicking stats, but whatever. It’s my blog. Start your own blog and cherrypick your own numbers.)
Jon Lester – 5 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 12 baserunners, 4 Ks. I wouldn’t press the panic button, but two of his last three starts have been duds.
Kyle McClellan – 4 IP, 7 ER. See Nick Blackburn or 7 and a 1/4 inches above.
Albert Pujols – 2-for-4 with the ever-tasty slam and legs. A Pujols by any other name would smell foul.
Bartolo Colon – 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 6 Ks. A doctor in Boca Raton is claiming he used stem cells to fix Colon’s arm and make him an effective pitcher once again. The doctor says he used Colon’s own fat cells to repair the elbow. Now the elbow is working like new but it can no longer fit into any of his shirts.
The Padres, sans Peavy, are Adrian Gonzalez’s team. Too bad beyond him there are only a few stars ready for the additional limelight. Don’t get me wrong, there is plenty of young talent already in the majors (Mat Latos, Kyle Blanks, Chase Headley, Everth Cabrera, Tony Gwynn Jr., Clayton Richards, Wade LeBlanc, and Kevin Kouzmanoff). However, this talent will be heavily relied upon unless the Padres spend some more money. Considering Peavy was traded to save money, I highly doubt that this will happen. There are also rumors swirling around that Bell may be traded. Additionally, Kevin Towers was fired as the general manager, however, leaving a pretty rosy situation for whomever they hire as their new General Manager. There is plenty of salary space, a 2008 draft class that is performing out of their mind (they did have a record of 94 and 36 – a 2.5 wins to ever loss), tons of young talent that will be cheap for years to come, and Gonzalez. This 2008 draft class has four players taken between the first and second rounds that had great seasons this year (James Darnell, Jaff Decker, Allan Dysktra, Logan Forsythe – and they are all hitters). The new GM will definitely still have to decide whether Adrian Gonzalez should be traded to open up first base for Blanks (would be a bad move as Gonzalez has taken a leadership role in the clubhouse); trade Kouzmanoff so Headley could play his natural position; and/or trade Bell. I am not going to speculate for there are other authors/bloggers/columnists who will do that.
You will notice that the Padres had an above-average ranking in 2008 and free falling to the bottom. Why? According to Baseball America, it was a combination of top prospects graduating (Nick Hundley and Headley), and several top prospects, especially pitchers, having terrible seasons in 2008 (Matt Antonelli [2B] went from #2 to #9; LeBlanc [SP] from #4 to #12; Drew Miller (SP) from #5 to #26; Steve Garrison [SP] from #6 to #22; and Will Inman [SP] from #7 to #18) and their 2004 first round draft pick Matt Bush [SS] has been an utter failure. The trade of Peavy returned several top 30 pitching prospects from the White Sox farm system (Aaron Poreda [LHP] #3; Clayton Richards [LHP] #5; Dexter Carter [RHP] #23 (who had the best fastball in Chicago’s farm); Adam Russell [RHP] #27), granted only Richards paid dividends this year while the others struggled mightily in the minors once they were Padres’ property. The trade of Scott Hairston to the Athletics brought in a couple of young right-handed power arms in Ryan Webb and Craig Italiano (with a player to be named later that ended up being Sean Gallagher). Italiano had some major injuries (labrum surgery on right shoulder in ’06 and a skull fracture in ’07) but has recovered and Webb is a bit unrefined but received a September call up. Only time will tell if these trades will benefit the Padres, other than saving them money of course.
Players of Interest
The players closest to the majors have either entered the majors (Latos, Blanks, Venable, etc.) or they aren’t worth mentioning. Antonelli was terrible this year at Triple-A and Kulbacki was just as poor at Double-AA. Thus, many of their top prospects that performed well are in the low minors.
Simon Castro | SP | A | 21 10.2 K/9 | 2.4 BB/9 | 140 1/3 IP | 3.33 ERA | 1.11 WHIP
Baseball America’s breakout prospect (ranked #14) pulled through with that prediction throwing a dominating slider and fastball that peaks at 97-98 mph that averages between 92 to 95 mph. He improved his walk rate and control while keeping his strikeouts near his prior performance. Look for him to start in High-A with a quick promotion to Double-A and a possible promotion to Triple-A or the majors by mid-August. I could see him doing really well again next year (as long as he continues to induce ground balls against righties (47.6GB% vs RH), but does have a pretty decent rate of 39.8 GB% overall and keeps his control in check).
Jaff Decker | OF | A | 19 | in 258 AB – .299/.442/.514 | 25 2B | 16 HR | 92:85 K:BB | ranked #3
Other than having an awkward first name, Decker had an awesome year. I am not even sure where to start with this lefty hitting youngster. His numbers are helped by having other top hitting prospects Darnell and Dykstra hitting around him too. He has tremendous plate awareness, plus power “potential” and a stellar arm (think low 90′s fastball). Oh, did I mention he turns only 20 in February? He should moved up to High-A and reach Double-A by mid-June if all goes well.
James Darnell | 3B | A/A+ | 22 | @A in 222 AB – .329/.468/.518 | 17 2B | 7 HR | 51:57 K:BB | @A+ in 235 AB – .294/.377/.533 | 18 2B | 13 HR | 38:30 K:BB | ranked #10
Looks like Kouzmanoff and Headley better start hitting or Darnell (ranked #10) may sneak up on them. With good plate discipline, a plus runner, average range at third, a strong arm, and the ability to play RF if the Padres see fit, Darnell’s future is looking brighter. Additionally, he was one of three South Carolina players taken in the 2008 draft (after Justin Smoak and Reese Havens), but Baseball America says some consider him the better athlete with more potential.
Allan Dykstra | 1B | A | 21 | in 411 AB | .226/.397/.375 | 22 2B | 11 HR | 103:102 K:BB | ranked #8
Looks like Jack Cust has a new competitor in the strikeout-walk-homer triad competition. Well, that is if Dykstra can learn to hit more homers. He has something called avascular necrosis of the hip which is a condition that results in the hip joint not receiving blood. The result is pain in the groin, butt and down the front of the thigh. Eventually stiffness of the joint (hip in this case) or a limp while walking will occur and the long term effect is interference with sleep. He got this condition from falling during a basketball game. Pretty freak incident. However, that happened before he was drafted last year, but one must remember that this is a degenerative disease. He hit for average in college, has great zone control but does strikeout quite frequently, has good power, poor swing mechanics with his lower body, below average defender, runner and athlete. Looks better fit for an AL team.
Logan Forsythe | 3B | A+/AA | 21 | (totals) in 480 AB – .300/.429/.440 | 22 2B | 11 HR | 111:102 K:BB | ranked #11
He has had several injuries, but this year he was scrap free. He has a “short, compact swing; good defense; and an above average arm.” Supposedly, he won’t develop tons of homer power but great gap power as he has a natural line-drive swing. He didn’t do amazing like Jaff Decker, but he was pretty solid. As with most young hitters, he struggled at Double-A and will probably open there again.
Sawyer Carroll | OF | A/A+/AA | 23 (totals) in 479 AB – .317/.413/.489 | 40 2B | 9 3B | 8 HR | 19/9 SB/CS | 106:80 K:BB
Stellar name, tons of gap power, decent speed on the base paths but needs to be more efficient. Granted there is a small sample size, he never hit below a .316 average (A), a .402 on-base percentage (A+), and a .438 slugging percentage (AA) [.316 /.410/.464 (A), .320/.402/.531 (A+), .317/.440/.488 (AA)]. I am going to assume he will make Baseball America’s rankings this year as top 30 Padres prospect. He is a bit old to be a stellar prospect, but he still has some potential to surprise. Plus, with the year he had, his age now matches the level of play he should be playing in – Double-A, and should open there in 2010 season.
Wynn Pelzer | SP | A+ | 23 | 8.8 K/9 | 3.5 BB/9 | 150 2/3 IP | 3.94 ERA | 1.28 WHIP
Threw 32 more innings than last year, improved his strikeout rate, regressed in his walk rate, but overall had a pretty good year. He doesn’t change speeds well, throwing his fastball between 93 and 95 mph, possesses a hard biting slider, and a poor change and splitter. Long term he looks better as a power reliever in the mold of a Brad Lidge. Look for him to move in the Double-A rotation with a September call up as a reliever.
Cody Decker | OF | R | 22 | in 198 AB – .354/.421/.717 | 21 2B | 15 HR | 42:19 K:BB
Not sure if Jaff[y] and Cody are brothers — couldn’t find it on the internet. Did find out Cody had 47 homers in college at UCLA playing first base and was drafted in the 22nd round this year. Matter of fact, he hit 36 homers this year alone if you combine his college homers and Rookie league homers (though that is a poor thing to do). Just look at his Cube ratings. He is doing pretty well for himself so far. He should start at Single-A next year.
