Fantasy Baseball Advice

We are getting down to it, the end of fantasy is nigh. Always wanted to say that. Point leagues are pushing the innings limit, while H2H leagues are figuring out what guy will carry them all week. It’s probably someone on the Rockies, holy hell are they a fantasy juggernaut. They are like getting a hidden onion ring when you order French fries from BK. Well, I won’t keep you too long with the prologue, it’s just useless fodder to warm you up to read the article, I should have sprung for hot chocolate instead. Good luck in your playoff endeavors this week, here are the low budget 2 start pitchers for the week in fantasy baseball.

Livan Hernandez (Hou vs. Norris) (Atl vs. Lowe)
I’m checking his ID, there is no way he is 35. That’s about as hard as he throws to boot. Mike D said it best, “She’s Crafty, and she‘s just my type.”

Bud Norris (@Was vs. Hernandez) (@Pit vs. Duke)
I’m still buying Bud. He’s going to be cheap, his K’s come in 6-12 packs and his Uncle will whoop ya Texas Ranger-style. Coming off 2 decent starts ERA is in the mid 3’s for the month.

Joe Saunders (Col vs. De La Rosa) (LA vs. Billingsley)
Pitches just bad enough to lose. The good news, he has a 4.32 ERA in night games. That’s all I could find stat-wise that didn’t make me vomit.

Rick Porcello (KC vs. Greinke) (Min vs. Duensing)
Where was I when I was 21? Yeah, it’s foggy, but I know I was somewhere not named Detroit. Previous gem versus KC. 7 innings in 5 consecutive starts.

John Lannan (Hou vs. Happ) (Atl vs. Jurrjens)
Has been sneaky decent. ERA a tick above 3 since coming back from injury.

Bruce Chen (@Det vs. Galarraga) (@Cle vs. Carmona)
Why not? 3.90 ERA on the road. I like both matchups, and you could do worse. Not much worse, but it’s worth a shot, and if he sucks then you blame your whole season on him.

Jake Westbrook (@Pit vs. Maholm) (@CHC vs. Wells)
Prolly best name on this list, bad part is that he is prolly owned in your league. Has gotten crap for run support. 3.20 ERA since coming to NL, but we knew that was going to happen.

Chris Capuano (Cin vs. Bailey) (Fla vs. Volstad)
2.50 ERA as a starter, yeah, I had to look that up. Fighting for a job next year which is usually good motivation.

Chris Volstad (StL vs. Carpenter) (@Mil vs. Capuano)
Back from suspension. I mean who doesn’t love a great melee, pacifists that’s who. ERA 2 runs lower at home.

We are finally legal with the fantasy season turning 18 this week. Nice. I was trying to think of the best baseball movie ever this week. I asked several people in my fantasy leagues what they thought. Typical answers — the ones that we all say should be the best were mentioned. I ask you this:  how many of them make you laugh like Naked Gun?  Granted, not a movie about baseball, but if you haven’t seen it in awhile I definitely recommend it. If you haven’t noticed, I’m avoiding the topic of trade deadline because no matter what you read on the subject, it turns out to be fraudulent. So take a look at your team, ‘cause that’s who you’re stuck with, barring league settings, of course. The waiver wire is your last resort to load up from week to week. Sometimes names are unimpressive but in H2H — it’s quantity that matters. Some matchups will vary, due to the Anaheim starting rotation situation and trades deadline.  Here’s this week’s two start pitchers for fantasy baseball:

Brian Duensing (@Tb vs. Price) (@ Cle vs. Tomlin)
Finally stretched out, well earned promotion from the pen. Could be worse: you could have drafted Slowey and Baker and thought “Yeah I’m set at SP.” Wrong. Tiny ERA, lots of hits, no K’s. Good gamble for a team poised to make a run.

Freddy Garcia (@ Det vs. Bonderman) (@ Bal vs. Guthrie)
Still miss the Soul Glo look from Freddy. Has a sneaky 10-4 record. Is a WHIP nightmare and lack of K’s make me sad. Any matchup that starts with Balt and ends with imore is a keeper.

Travis Wood (@ Pit vs. Ohlendorf) (@ ChC vs. TBA)
Continues to deepen the future of Cincy’s rotation. I think he’s doing it with mirrors and will eventually get figured out. Gets a start on the Alleghany, and TBA. Sneaky K numbers.

Jason Vargas (Tex vs. Lewis) (KC vs. Bannister)
A month ago he was 6-2. Prolly a sit in first start. Could be wearing down:  high inning total for career is 140 and he is at 127. Get what you can before the wheels fall off the Vargas.

Jeremy Guthrie (Ana vs. Bell) (ChW vs. Garcia)
Any other team, he is a .500 pitcher. No worries, Buck will turn around Charm City. Anaheim rotation is a M.A.S.H. unit and Hawkeye Pierce is getting loose. ERA half a run better at home. He may be starting the “Andrew Luck for Heisman” campaign early.

Vicente Padilla (SD vs. Latos) (Was vs. Olsen)
Another guy who likes his own bed:  ERA is halved at the Ravine. 4-1 K/BB is muy bueno. Ultra effective vs. Lefties. SD only good bat is, you guessed it — lefty.

Clayton Richard (@ LA vs. Kuroda) (@ Ari vs. Lopez)
Previous win vs. LA… too bad it doesn’t count for this week. D-Backs are horrid. The fathers are really still in first- I lost a bet ‘cause of that. Another guy with an innings alert. Still chugging with a K/Inning.

Livan Hernandez (@Ari vs. Lopez) (@ LA vs. Kuroda)
Guy throws pitches in the 50’s, and he doesn’t throw knuckleballs or throw it underhanded. Impossible you say. 3.22 ERA on the year. Even Pete Townsend “can’t explain.“

Rick Porcello (ChW vs. Buehrle) (Ana vs. Bell)
Is really motivated by the start of the second season of his home state’s “Jersey Shore.” Patience, kid, only turns 22 in December. 3 consecutive decent starts. A good buy low guy for the Detroit stretch run.

Joe Saunders (Was vs. Olsen) (SD vs. Latos)
Penthouse to the outhouse. ‘Zona is going to be worse than Baltimore the rest of the year, book it. Switch of leagues usually makes you look fantastic for about a minute in a half.  Didn’t even happen for Saunders.

Last month, I told you Ubaldo, Mike Leake, Hi-Me Garcia, Buchholz, Livan, Garland, Niemann, Tim Hudson, David Price and Pettitte would get worse.  Price and Buchholz were the only pitchers to have a better June than May, and Buchholz didn’t pitch the whole month.  How’s those odds?  If you don’t know what the FIP I’m talking about.  Read the following:  xFIP — stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching.  It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you.  It’s a pure ERA.  It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it.  It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it.  That’s xFIP.  Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher, who has an ERA of 2.75, but his xFIP is a 6.75.  A -4.00 difference.  That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up.  So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for the first three months or so of the fantasy baseball season. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)

Clay Buchholz – -1.83.  Combine this with the injury, a 6.26 K/9, a 3.72 BB/9, an inflated Win total and an unrealistic ERA and there could be some trouble ahead.

Matt Cain – -1.73.  Of course Matt Cain’s on this list.  He’s been on just about every list of lucky pitchers for the last two years.

Tim Hudson – -1.73.  His ERA corrected itself a bit in June and it should continue to trend the wrong way as his good luck leprechaun becomes a lepre-can’t.  Oofa!

Jeff Niemann – -1.67. There’s some guys I wish would just pitch as terribly as they’re capable of so I can stop talking about them.  Niemann’s one of those guys.

Wade LeBlanc – -1.61.  Then there’s times I come across a guy on these FIP lists that hurts me to see.  LeBlanc’s one of those because I own him on a few teams.  I’m going to continue to start him only at home as a hodgepadre, try to keep him dry and not feed him after midnight.

Jaime Garcia – -1.61.  His xFIP and FIP are both below 4 and his K-rate is over 7.  I before e, things might get worse but still usable.

David Price – -1.55.  Basically what we’re seeing today is the guys that were lucky are still being lucky.  The nice thing on Price and why I wouldn’t completely shy away from him is his xFIP is 3.97 and his K-rate is near 8.

Livan Hernandez – -1.55.  Livan’s not a 3.12 ERA pitcher?  C’mon!  No way!

Ubaldo Jimenez – -1.47.  So I could’ve just said look at last month’s post about lucky pitchers.  Okay, point taken.  Because of that I’m going to skip Jon Garland (-1.22) and Andy Pettitte (-1.27) and move to some new names…

C.J. Wilson – -1.45.  The Texas heat combined with his home park is already a recipe for disaster.

Jonathan Sanchez – -1.21.  If you thought/think (depending on your tense/density) that Sanchez is a low-3 ERA, news flash!  He’s not.  But his K-rate is also the best on this list.  Yes, better than Ubaldo.

Mat Latos – -0.97.  The xFIP is a concern, but the bigger concern for H2H leagues is once the Padres realize they are costing themselves their best pitcher for 2011 by pushing Latos, they will probably start skipping him in September.

Clayton Richard – -0.96.  According to this list, the Padres might want to consider trading Bell before the inevitable collapse.  In fairness to my beloved hodgepadres, they pitch their home games in Yellowstone.  Don’t drop any of them.  Just use your head when starting them.  Or just look for “@San Diego.”

Ozzie Guillen said Jake Peavy “has some things with his arm.”  You know how know-it-alls put (sic) to indicate the quote’s error is not the transcriber’s error?  They should adopt this for major league managers.  “Has some things with his arm (Ozzie).” “Mathis just knows how to play the game BETTER! (Scioscia)”  “That’s not old school, that’s good school.  That’s the way you play the game unless you want to put some rouge and makeup and lipstick on. (Manuel)”  So Peavy has some things with his arm.  Yeah, that’s not a good sign.  That’s like my friend who was trying to sell me a car.  “It just hasn’t been started in over a year.”  I put Peavy in the “Avoid” tier in the preseason because he’s been too injured the last few seasons.  What’s he now?  Injured.  Thank you, your Honor.  I rest my case.  I’d look to sell Peavy.  Unfortunately, no one’s buying him.  Right now, the Sox are only talking about moving his next start, but it’s not a good sign either way.  Or eithurrrr if Mystikal’s reading to you.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Chris Resop – Off to the DL.  The Disgraceful List is when a player’s DL’d for sucking.  But what’s it called when the player forces a team to promote them due to a contract issue and then is DL’d because the club just doesn’t want the player?  Disagreement List?  Disaccord List?  Dis Team Has No Room For You List?

Shelley Duncan – Hit his 2nd homer in two games.  Unfortunate for anyone who had to high five him afterwards.

Tommy Hunter – Left the game with some hip flexor discomfort.  Pretty sneaky of Coghlan to step up to the plate with “The Twist” playing.

Julio Borbon – 2-for-4 with his 1st homer, now batting .285 to Andrus’ .288.  Give him the green light!

Brandon Wood – 1-for-3 as he played shortstop for Izturis, who went to the DL with a strained forearm.  If Wood hits and if he gets shortstop eligibility and one more if you’ll have a full house.  If’s over and’s.

Jon Niese – 7 IP, 3 ER, 10 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Looks like Niese has put his feud with Heather B completely behind him.  He’s pitching well and he has home games in Metco yadda³, I’d grab him.

Fred Lewis – 4-for-5 with his 5th steal as Jose Bautista sat.  The Bautista who is hitting .194 with 5 homers since I said you should sell him a month ago.  In April, Bautista had 4 homers.  In May, he hit 12 homers.  In June, he has 2 homers.  You tell me which month looks off.  Oh, and sorry to Fred Lewis for hogging his blurb with Bautista info.

Ricky Romero – 6 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks and a 3.08 ERA on the year.  I don’t want to lose people with K/9 or anything so here… Romero has 96 Ks in 96 1/3 innings.  Thing.  Of.  Beauty.  Yes, I brought out the douchey one word sentences for emphasis.

John Buck – 2-for-4 with his 12th homer.  BUCK!

Scott Baker – 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 12 Ks.  A Baker’s dozen!  Wait, that’s not right.  Eh, whatever.  Baker just about reached the point where I was going to tell people to lose him everywhere so he really needed this start.  I don’t think he’s completely out of the woods, but he’s in a better place than he was after his last start.

Joe Mauer – 0-for-3, hitting .311 with 2 homers on the year.  Cust kayin’.

Jaime Garcia – 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 7 Ks.  First time in a while his line looks like he should have got the Win and what happens?  Gets the loss for the first time since May 8th.  It’s the chutzpah of Wins.

Brennan Boesch – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs, his 9th homer as he bats .344 on the year.  Who’s been more valuable, Boesch or Holliday?  Yup.

Don Kelly – 0-for-4, ye of a .217 average and .276 OBP hit leadoff.  Your internal monologue, “Why, Grey, I do not understand?”  Because Kelly played center and Leyland only has one lineup card.

Jose Tabata – Hit his first major league homer yesterday.  I’m fingercuffed to him and it feels so good.  Then not good.  Then good again.

Matt Lindstrom – Got the save.  Guess his back is, um, back.  Lyon hasn’t been bad so I’m holding him for now where I have room.

David DeJesus – 10 for his last 13.  For DeJesus’ next trick, he’s going to walk on water.  The downside is there isn’t much upside.

Mike Leake – 6 IP, 5 ER, 12 baserunners, 4 Ks.  About three weeks ago, I was saying he was going to fall back to earth then for the last two weeks after that I’ve been reminding you that I was saying Leake was going to fall back to earth three weeks ago.  I don’t think he’s all the way back to earth yet either.

Manny Ramirez – 3rd homer in his last seven games and 2nd homer in last two games.  After the homer, he got back in the dugout and Casey Blake iced him.

Clayton Kershaw – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks, 8 baserunners, but only 1 walk.  Look at Kershaw only walking three hitters in his last two starts.  Oh, and he has 97 Ks in 85 IP.  Nasty.

Livan Hernandez – 6 2/3 IP, 8 ER, 13 baserunners, 2 Ks.  What did this fat guy who can only throw 82 MPH do with the other fat guy who can only throw 82 MPH?

Aubrey Huff – 3-for-4 with his 4th homer in the last six games.  Keeps going like this and he may get a “Huffing Along” post title.

Tim Lincecum – 6 IP, 2 ER, 12 baserunners, 10 Ks.  Was hit by a comebacker and removed from the game.  Lincecum should be fine for his next start.  In a weird voodoo doll-type way, when Lincecum was hit, k.d. lang said, “Ouch.”

Pablo Sandoval – Giants trainer said Sandoval needs to be more disciplined about his eating habits.  Earth to ESPN, this is a reality show!  Watch Kung Fu Panda go to the beach and refuse to take off his shirt.  Watch as Kung Fu Panda says no to Kung Pao Chicken and yes to calisthenics.  Watch Kung Fu Panda go shopping for clothes.  “No, Renteria, I can’t fit into these Dockers.  I’m bloated!”

What’s up, homes?  Why isn’t it officially summer yet?  Feels like it, right?  Okay, enough small talk.  Let’s get down to some fantasy baseball action!  (<–If you say that to a girl and she doesn’t immediately walk away, splash some water in your face, you’re dreaming.)  We’re taking our monthly look at xFIPs and what they can tell us for fantasy baseball.  If you don’t know what the FIP I’m talking about.  Read the following:  xFIP — stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching.  It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you.  It’s a pure ERA.  It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it.  It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it.  That’s xFIP.  Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher, who has an ERA of 2.75, but his xFIP is a 6.75.  A -4.00 difference.  That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up.  So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for the first two months of the season. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)

Livan Hernandez – -2.69.  Please regress already, I’m sick of talking about you.  Thank you!

Ubaldo Jimenez – -2.58.  Well, that’s not a good sign.  On the bright side, his xFIP is only 3.51.  You didn’t really think he’d end the year with a sub-1 ERA, did you?  You did?  Aw, I’m sorry.  Go take a nap, the world will still be here when you wake.

Jaime Garcia – -2.25.  This is upsetting for me, because I own this doode.  Yeah, he’s not a sub-2 ERA pitcher, unfortunately.  His xFIP isn’t obnoxiously bad though at 3.72.

Tim Hudson – -2.00.  Odd that he appeared in the Sell section of this Buy/Sell or was it my plan along?  There’s no right answer.  Just talk it out, you’ll get it.

David Price – -1.95.  This list has more quality names on it than I remember last month.  Price’s Ks are down and his BABIP is way down, showing he’s been lucky.  If you can pass him off in a trade like he’s the 2nd coming of Lincecum, I’d consider it.

Mike Leake – -1.80.  His Ks are just eh and his walks are kinda bleh.  If someone wants some of your rookie nookie, I’d let them at it.

Clay Buchholz – -1.78.  This is a little upsetting, but it’s fair to say he’s not a sub-3 ERA guy.  In the AL East, there’s really no sub-3 ERA guys.  Lester would be the closest.

Jeff Niemann – -1.73.  What’s this, the whole Rays pitching staff?  Here’s the thing, and there is a thing, the Rays defense is excellent so it’s helping a bit with the pitcher’s “luck.”  Still, I’m not a fan of Niemann and here he is, so there’s that.

Jon Garland – -1.58.  No relation to Judy (from what I know), but at some point he’s going to click his heels and pitch away from home and get rocked.

Andy Pettitte – -1.52.  I think it’s safe to say from Pettitte’s track record no one thinks he’s the pitcher he’s been these first 2 months.  Assuming he’s not taking steroids again.