I started writing this week and kept getting distracted by the notion of a “tease” starting pitcher. These are guys we all see available every week at the top of our waiver wire. For some reason they hop on and off rosters, faster than the Easter Bunny. They all for some reason have an attractive quality, whether it be a great matchup, a previous decent start or just a general boyish quality that we find irresistible. We see the numbers they produce and sometimes numbers tell a different story than what really is going on for fantasy purposes. In the end, it comes down to picking a starting pitcher in a must win week is the same place that $30 steak goes to digest. So with the eve of playoffs upon us, here are the lower end 2 start options for the week. Good luck and happy fantasying. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change, especially with Irene running havoc.)
ONE START OPTIONS:
8/31
Brandon Beachy vs. Was – Lannan
Chris Capuano vs. Fla – Hensley
Ted Lilly vs. SD – LeBlanc
James McDonald @ Hou – Happ
Josh Collmenter vs. Col – Rogers
9/1
Fausto Carmona vs. Oak – Gonzalez
Luis Perez @ Bal – Matusz
9/2
Bruce Chen vs. Cle – Masterson
Guillermo Moscoso vs. Sea – pineda
Jeff Karstens @CHC – Dempster
Charlie Morton (@Hou vs. Sosa, @CHC vs. Wells) Was pitching well up until Thursday. 3 ER in previous 29 innings. Jersey guys always get a little extra juice from me, hey, I’m a homer. Go root for your own state.
Brett Cecil (@Bal vs. Reyes, @NYY vs. Sabathia) We all root for the glasses, whether we admit it or not we do. Is a typical tease fantasy pitcher, shows the goods, does bad gets dropped, rinse and repeat for next scheduled start.
Wade Davis (@Tor vs. Romero, Bal vs. Simon) ERA right at 3 in last 4 starts, and showing better K rate. Pitches better at the Trop and I gamble more at the Trop, so the Baltimore start looks like a winner to me. This lesson in transitive theory is brought to you by Gamblers Anonymous.
Javier Vazquez (NYM vs. Pelfrey, Phi vs. Hamels) If consistency were pants, he would be wearing cargo jorts. Recently moved into the top 30 all-time in K’s, congrats. We come for the K’s and cry when we get everything else.
Livan Hernandez (@Atl vs. Lowe, NYM vs. Pelfrey) I don’t know if anyone watches his starts, but he is fun to watch. Throws slower than his jersey number. Is the Latino Houdini of pitchers, better known to those in the know as El Mago.
Doug Fister (KC vs. Francis, CHW vs. Buehrle) Since trade he is 3-1, with an ERA in the mid 3’s. Toss that record out the window, make sure the window is open first, genius. It’s not next year but a full year in Detriot with that offense and he is a 15 game winner.
Brandon McCarthy (@Cle vs. Tomlin, Sea vs. Vargas) Loved his work in Mannequin. Is in the growing trend this week of tease pitchers, cusp rosterable guys that matchup-wise are more attractive.
Homer Bailey (Phi vs. Worley, STL vs. Garcia) The Iliad, a funny catchphrase and a civil rights activist. See Homers have actually done something good in history. What you see is what you get, he isn’t the former top pitching spec we all want him to be. Sorry, I hear hearts breaking all over the Midwest.
Derek Lowe (Was vs. Livan, LA vs. Kuroda) Team is 20 games over .500 and he has 23% of the losses. Yeah, that sounds awesome from a fantasy perspective. So grab your sneakers and chase those wins.
Blake Beavan (Ana vs. Pineiro, @Oak vs. Cahill) On here for 1 reason, he has beat both these teams previously. Tends to get beat up by good hitting teams, which for the less in the know means his secondary pitches aren’t inspiring. Doesn’t K enough for full fantasy usefulness.
Welcome to week 12, please wipe your feet before you enter. For most leagues this week is the halfway point. Peripheral stats are darn near impossible to make up this late in the season, but the impossible is what fuels fantasy fires. Not the ones started by Drew Barrymore though. So if you’re in a keeper league now may be the perfect time to use strategy and build for tomorrow. Grab guys that may be expensive now but even more expensive next year. The best thing about fantasy is that there will usually be a next year, and what’s wrong with winning next year. Nothing! Sorry if I yelled that too loud. So follow me as we explore this weeks low end pitching options for fantasy baseball, enjoy. (Please keep in mind that match-ups and pitchers may change.)
ONE START OPTIONS:
6/22
Nick Blackburn @Sf – Vogelsong
Joel Pineiro @ Fla – Hand
John Lanna vs. Sea – Bedard
6/23
Chris Capuano vs. Oak – Godfrey
Felipe Paulino vs. Ari – Hudson
Jason Marquis vs. Sea – Pineda
6/24
Carlos Carrasco @SF – Sanchez
Matt Harrison @NYM – Pelfrey
Tim Stauffer vs. Atl – Lowe
Carl Pavano (@SF vs. Bumgarner, @Mil vs. Narveson) Typical Snidely Whiplash. Throws a couple decent games in a row to gain our trust and then goes all Waco on your weekly peripherals. K’s are yuck and away ERA is double yuck.
Ivan Nova (@Cin vs. Cueto, Col vs. Nicasio) Still plays for the yanks, so he has that going for him. Road Era is a run lower. K/BB rate is muy mal. Revert back to first sentence for positive news.
Livan Hernandez (Sea vs. Fister, @CHW vs. Floyd) Comes off a complete game gem against the Cards. Home ERA is under a deuce. Recent quote from Jamie Moyer, “Man, he throws hard.”
Jeff Niemann (@Mil vs. Narveson, @Hou vs. Happ) Hopefully grandma’s ouchie cream and a popsicle made him feel better. Still a bottom of the rotation guy with minimal K potential.
Josh Outman (@NYM vs. Gee, @Phi vs. ?) Thanks to Cahill for falling on the grenade last week and moving up a day. Josh makes consecutive fantasy posts for the first time in….sorry had to look it up…forever.
Doug Fister (@Was vs. Hernandez, Fla vs. Sanchez) Pitching decent and falls into the Paul Maholm category of pitchers with mid 3 ERA’s with losing records. ERA half run better at home.
Charlie Morton (Bal vs. Arrieta, Bos vs. Beckett) Every time he pitches twice in a week I give him a new nickname, this week it’s “Pre Med.” Looks like Halladay without the degree. Still struggles against LH.
Derek Holland (Hou vs. Happ, NYM vs. Gee) xFIP of a run less than his ERA. Seems to be on a two good, one bad stretch. Home ERA isn’t very friendly. K-rate makes it a little more tolerable.
Chris Narveson (TB vs. Niemann, Min vs. Pavano) Discussed him before and he is just frustrating. Cruises through 4 innings than walks a couple and boom goes the dynamite. xFIP lower by a run. Decent K’s, good lineup, just pukes up too many leads.
Joe Saunders (@KC vs. Hochevar, @Det vs. Penny) Zona scores some runs, better ERA on the road and decent match-ups. Sounds like a delicious recipe for a buy low weekly add to me.
Dustin Ackley was recalled (don’t ask why it’s recalled and not called up, baseball’s arcane at times). Here’s what I said when he was about to get the call a little under a month ago, “Guess what ya’ll we’re gonna talk about the Mariners! Snooze. But we’re talking about the top Mariners prospect! Yawn. But it’s Dustin Ackley and he hit 5 homers and stole 2 bases in Triple-A last year over 237 plate appearances! Burp. So far this year, he’s been better with power and speed — 9 homers and 6 steals through 64 games (updated!).” And that’s me quoting and updating me! Because his home park ends in -co — Petco, Safeco, Metco — his power may take a bit of a hit. His speed isn’t gazelle-like. (Gazellian?) But, at middle infidel, you take the flyer to see what he can do. It’s a MILF (Middle Infielder I’d Like to take a Flyer on). Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Albert Pujols – One start away from gaining 3rd base eligibility. Before the game, La Russa said, “I know I Mr. Bungled the closer situation for a few weeks earlier this year, so here’s a bone for fantasy owners.” In other La Russa news, Razzball has an exclusive! We’ve obtained a never before seen picture of Smurfette giving birth to Tony La Russa.
Allen Craig – Could miss up to 6 weeks while he’s mourning his small fracture in his kneecap n’ crunch.
Travis Wood – 6 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners (5 BBs), 2 Ks. It’s always frustrating when a pitcher you want to believe in does well as far as earned runs go, but walks too many guys to get excited about.
Scott Rolen – 3-for-5, 3 RBIs, now has 6 RBIs in the last 4 games. Is there a more useless stat? I’m surprised the saber-community hasn’t become more diligent about finding a better stat… Though maybe they have, I’m not at the forefront of the saber-movement. “Hey, why is it an Inverted W? Why not just call it an M?” That’s me opening for Rob Neyer in concert.
Kyle Kendrick – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks. I wouldn’t pick him up with your team.
Jhoulys Chacin – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks. I loved Jhoulys in the preseason — So Fresh, So Chacin, ha! I crack myself up sometimes. I have two regrets, wish I would’ve pushed him even harder on youse and I wish I owned him in every league.
Charlie Blackmon – 3-for-4 with his 5th steal in 5 games. If you’re not giddy to grab him, we’ll never see eye to eye. Go read Fantasy (insert a synonym for smart) dot com.
Ricky Romero – 8 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 12 Ks. Now you can’t blame me if you don’t own him. Here’s what I said in the preseason, “Let’s count the ways we love Ricky Romero, shall we? 7 ways! Okay, maybe I should count them out loud. 1) Will only be 26 years old. 2) Will be entering his third big league season, a time when pitchers tend to hit their stride. 3) His K-rate was 7 and half and can get better. 4) He cut his walks last year. 5) Golden rings. 6) Pitches in the AL East… Hmm… That’s not a positive. 7) There was really only 4 reasons that I stretched out to 7. 2011 Projections: 13-6/3.65/1.30/180″ And that’s me quoting me!
Frank Francisco – Got the save yesterday, but Rauch was unavailable after pitching 2 innings on Tuesday. I think Rauch or Francisco could get the next save. Hello, wishy, meet my friend washy.
Adam Lind – 2-for-3 with his 13th home run. Now has homers in back-to-back games and is hitting .337 on the year. Glad to see Lind’s 2009 wasn’t hanging out with and getting influenced by Aaron Hill’s 2009.
Yunel Escobar – 3-for-4, home run. I’m not a huge fan of Yunel’s because of his lack of speed but he’s hitting .292 with 8 homers. He’s kinda doing what you paid in your draft for Martin Prado to do.
Chad Billingsley – 4 IP, 7 ER, 13 baserunners, 3 Ks. Only thing he could do worse is if he changed his name to Chazz. (BTW, we need a writer for Razzball who goes by the name Chazz. I don’t care about your writing style or references. In your profile pic, I want to see an Izod shirt, a sweater wrapped around your shoulders and a tennis racket. That’s all I care about. And maybe some anecdotes that involve your mumsy and pawpaw.) No one wants Bills on their team if they own him, and I understand it. Would I drop him? Well, it’s not like he’s that good when he’s good, right? Actually, his post-All-Star Break ERA last year was 3.00 and he had a 2.79 in July. His June ERA last year was 6.11. It’s June Gloom, ya’ll. Also, his xFIP is decent and his K-rate is nice. I wouldn’t go out and trade for him, but I would pick him up off waivers in some leagues and bench him if I had room. I wouldn’t drop him in most leagues either, I’d just bench him.
Tsuyoshi Nishioka – Was activated from the DL. Nishioka, or Japanese Hazelnut as Rudy likes to call him because his last name slightly resembles the name for hazelnut gelato, should be grabbed in most mixed leagues. Really, what else you got at MI? Yeah, thought so.
Nick Markakis – 1-for-2 with a run. For him, big game. All kidding aside, what happened to this young brother? Someone spray Windex on his bat or something.
Mike Morse – 3-for-4, 3 runs, 3 RBIs and 2 home runs. The Morse God of Fantasy!
Danny Espinosa – 2-for-4 with his 11th home run to go along with his 6 steals. I realize his average looks like Metamucil vomit, but I still find it hard to believe he isn’t owned everywhere.
Livan Hernandez – 9 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 6 Ks. He’s a Latin 36 and pushing 250 lbs of pure blubber. He probably can’t run a quarter mile. His fastball is slower than some pitches you’d see from Jim Kaat at the Minnesota Twins Fantasy Camp. Yet, his ERA is 3.77. For me, this alone is reason enough to love baseball.
Gaby Sanchez – Hit his 12th home run, and is batting .310. I’ll admit to underestimating his power. Between dropping Anibal in one league after his first bad start and Gaby, the Florida Sanchii have confused me.
Ryan Madson – Won his third game, has 15 saves and ERA is 2.10. One of our teams is doing great. On that team, we have Madson, Venters and Storen as our relievers. Three total draft flyers. Really goes to the sentiment of SAGNOF.
Asdrubal Cabrera – 1-for-5 and is cooling off in a big way. Keep in mind I told you to sell him two weeks ago. I will mention that again in two weeks if he stays cold. I will not mention it if he starts hitting again.
Eduardo Nunez – 2-for-4 with a home run and two steals. While Jeter rents Friday Nights Lights with Minka so he can praise her acting, Nunez is manning short. Speaking of short, he won’t have value for long, but he can be a decent stopgap at MI. He has mostly speed, but, as he showed, there’s a bit of power.
Mark Teixeira – 3-for-5 with 2 home runs. One for each oddly placed I in his name. He now has 21 homers on the year. Imagine if Te(i)x actually gets hot in the 2nd half.
Alcides Escobar – 3-for-3 with his third game in a row with a steal. He also has multiple hit games in five straight and has raised his batting average almost 30 points this month. You say potato, I say hot schmotato.
Jeff Baker – Homered yesterday. With the Purple Evolutionist out, we added Baker to a bunch of deeper league teams. The Cubs are batting him third (vs. lefties). Though he might not play vs. righties.
Josh Beckett – One hit shutout of the Rays with 6 Ks. Only hit was an infield single. Yeah, Beckett’s having a nice season. I said he was a great buy…last year when he was worse than dog balls, but I was time traveling and I thought it was 2011. Oh, well. Can’t win them all. Maybe I should do steroids, is that legal for fantasy baseball bloggers?
Andrew Miller – Will be promoted by the Sawx to start against the Padres next Monday. Terry Francona said, “Obviously, [Miller] is a huge part of our organization, and it’s going to stay that way. He’s not going anywhere.” Huge? Sure, Francona. And Marco Scutaro is really the lynchpin to your title hopes and you built the team squarely around the talents of Bobby Jenks. Honestly, does my opinion of Miller matter for this matchup vs. the Padres? I don’t think so. If you really want to know, he’s been underachieving for years. He’s been good this year in Pawtucket, but he’s been good in the minor leagues before. I could see taking the flyer and then reevaluating after the Padres start, which is probably what the Sawx will be doing too.
Justin Morneau – To the DL. The only way he’s hitting an upper decker this year is if he craps in the toilet tank.
Another week has come and gone my friends, well, I’m assuming we are friends. Hopefully fake baseball is still enjoyable to you, even if your team is in the crapper. It’s not too late, in fact it’s still way early. Trust in the pitcher is the biggest thing that makes a start a must start. Listen, I can’t put it to you any simpler than this. Pitchers are held to a different standard than hitters. They can get a hitter out 7 times out of 10 and they look terrible. But if they get them out 8 out of 10, we salute them, throw a parade and erect sandcastles in there honor. It’s a fine line between being great and being crappy. I have said this before and I still use it for “entertainment value” when determining if I am going to start a guy on a certain day. Go to your trusty odds maker, whether it be the newspaper, website or Uncle Geno. The people who have the most to lose on this know what they’re doing. That’s why there are no casinos named after charitable organizations. So, in times of despair, don’t fret, you are surrounded by information that will guide you in the right direction. Unfortunately, when the pitcher sucks and should have been great, there is nothing we can do but take it on the chin. Enjoy another week of fantasy double dipping and streaming. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups may change.)
ONE START OPTIONS
5/3 Sam Lecure vs. Hou – Figueroa
5/4 Clayton Richard vs. Pit – Correia Jake Arrieta @ KC – Davies Fausto Carmona @ Oak – Cahill
5/5 Bruce Chen vs. Bal – Tillman Joel Pineiro @ Bos – Lackey
5/6 Ian Kennedy @ SD – Stauffer Philip Humber @ Sea – Fister Jason Hammel @ SF – Cain
5/7 Charlie Morton vs. Hou – Norris Jon Garland @ NYM – Young
TWO START OPTIONS
Josh Tomlin (@Oak vs. Ross, @Ana vs. Haren) Finally getting use out of that magic trick game he got as a kid. BAA is tiny .186, there is always a but though, a low K/9 and is second in LOB%. I believe Napoleon Dynamite said it best, “Lucky.”
Brandon McCarthy (Tex vs. Holland, @KC vs. Hochevar) Already a 1 WAR pitcher, there are only 15 in all of baseball. Numbers are saying that he should be even better than he has already shown. Best showing for a McCarthy since Weekend at Bernie’s.
Mike Leake (Hou vs. Happ, @CHC vs. Russell) Five-fingered Mike. Cueto’s return is coming most likely in the Cubs series. Homer not too long after. Tough decisions for Dusty. I rank ‘em Wood, Leake and then Bailey, until he proves he can’t get hurt walking and chewing gum at same time.
Erik Bedard (Tex vs. Ogando, CHW vs. Buehrle) I’m not a buyer here. Some K potential but injuries and Seattle’s offensive woes make me wonder when the last time an Erik actually did something good, not so fast there Poncherello.
Chris Volstad (@StL vs. Lohse, Was vs. Gorzellany) Don’t know why I like him, maybe it’s the height thing. Gets me easily confused with Josh. Medium K potential, but based on match-ups this week me likey a little extra.
Tyson Ross (Cle vs. Tomlin, @KC vs. Francis) A’s pitchers are hot commodities this week. Decent numbers in minors for K’s. Control will be a problem. Just getting stretched out, 2-3 more starts will put him in the “Why didn’t I add him before he took off?” category.
Livan Hernandez (Phi vs. Oswalt, @Fla vs. Sanchez) The epitome of fishing for wins. Offers zero K’s but keeps trucking along giving you 6 innings of 3 run ball. About as cool for fantasy rosters as Jorts.
Esmil Rogers (@Ari vs. Saunders, @SF vs. Vogelsong) Looked up his family bio and has a brother named Egrimac. Walks make me unhappy, looking to avenge only bad start of the season against SF. Compare his numbers to Ubaldo, yeah, he isn’t that bad now.
Jeremy Guthrie (@CHW vs. Buehrle, TB vs. Shields) Hard luck guy, Dustin Moseley even feels bad. Take away the start vs. Cle and he has allowed 3 runs in 27 innings. Always liked Stanford alums, maybe it’s because of the LSJUMB.
Wade Davis (Tor vs. Reyes, @Bal vs. Bergesen) Poor K/BB ratio, still sporting an ERA in the high 2’s. Seems to be pitching better than ancillary numbers would suggest. Is still way under owned and looked at, first it was Hellickson and his boyish charm and now it’s Shields who likes to do everything by himself.
We are getting down to it, the end of fantasy is nigh. Always wanted to say that. Point leagues are pushing the innings limit, while H2H leagues are figuring out what guy will carry them all week. It’s probably someone on the Rockies, holy hell are they a fantasy juggernaut. They are like getting a hidden onion ring when you order French fries from BK. Well, I won’t keep you too long with the prologue, it’s just useless fodder to warm you up to read the article, I should have sprung for hot chocolate instead. Good luck in your playoff endeavors this week, here are the low budget 2 start pitchers for the week in fantasy baseball.
Livan Hernandez (Hou vs. Norris) (Atl vs. Lowe)
I’m checking his ID, there is no way he is 35. That’s about as hard as he throws to boot. Mike D said it best, “She’s Crafty, and she‘s just my type.”
Bud Norris (@Was vs. Hernandez) (@Pit vs. Duke)
I’m still buying Bud. He’s going to be cheap, his K’s come in 6-12 packs and his Uncle will whoop ya Texas Ranger-style. Coming off 2 decent starts ERA is in the mid 3’s for the month.
Joe Saunders (Col vs. De La Rosa) (LA vs. Billingsley)
Pitches just bad enough to lose. The good news, he has a 4.32 ERA in night games. That’s all I could find stat-wise that didn’t make me vomit.
Rick Porcello (KC vs. Greinke) (Min vs. Duensing)
Where was I when I was 21? Yeah, it’s foggy, but I know I was somewhere not named Detroit. Previous gem versus KC. 7 innings in 5 consecutive starts.
John Lannan (Hou vs. Happ) (Atl vs. Jurrjens)
Has been sneaky decent. ERA a tick above 3 since coming back from injury.
Bruce Chen (@Det vs. Galarraga) (@Cle vs. Carmona)
Why not? 3.90 ERA on the road. I like both matchups, and you could do worse. Not much worse, but it’s worth a shot, and if he sucks then you blame your whole season on him.
Jake Westbrook (@Pit vs. Maholm) (@CHC vs. Wells)
Prolly best name on this list, bad part is that he is prolly owned in your league. Has gotten crap for run support. 3.20 ERA since coming to NL, but we knew that was going to happen.
Chris Capuano (Cin vs. Bailey) (Fla vs. Volstad)
2.50 ERA as a starter, yeah, I had to look that up. Fighting for a job next year which is usually good motivation.
Chris Volstad (StL vs. Carpenter) (@Mil vs. Capuano)
Back from suspension. I mean who doesn’t love a great melee, pacifists that’s who. ERA 2 runs lower at home.
