Given how much he was touted during the preseason, you’d think Shelby Miller would’ve already surfaced in St. Louis after injuries to big league starters Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia.  But a poor spring training followed by a brutal first half in the Pacific Coast League forced the Cardinals to turn to Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly instead.  Whatever was bothering Miller during the first four months of 2012 — mechanics, command, velocity… all of the above — whatever it was, he seems to have worked through it.  In 40.2 IP over his last seven outings with Triple-A Memphis, he’s posted a 42/4 K/BB along with a 3.32 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP.  Miller is once again commanding his mid-90s fastball and he truly looks to be back on track as an elite prospect.  With the Cardinals welcoming back Jaime Garcia to their rotation today, however, it seems unlikely that we’ll see him pitch in the bigs this year.  Still, at just 21-years-old, Miller’s ceiling remains enormous.  He should help in all formats next year.

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This is always painful, but it’s also necessary.  What follows is a look back at my preseason prospect rankings — a self audit, if you will.  To be clear, this isn’t a re-ranking or anything, but it should suffice to remind all of you that I am mostly stupid.  Please keep in mind that these guys are very early in their careers, and there is plenty of time for each to either figure it out, or get figured out.  Anyway, let’s cut to it:

1.

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Well, it’s not how the Nationals envisioned the arrival, but Bryce Harper is here.  The promotion is based more on necessity than performance – Harper’s hitting just .250/.333/.375 in the early going at Triple-A Syracuse.  Looks like he’ll occupy the 7th spot in the Washington batting order while Ryan Zimmerman and Michael Morse are shelved on the DL.  It’s probably unrealistic to expect too much out of Harper just yet, but he’s the No.

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We’re a few weeks from Opening Day, and the outlook on prospects for 2012 is taking shape.  As usual, it’s important to take a prudent approach with these guys.  Prospect-happy drafting is not wise.  Most of these names won’t make major impacts for another year or two – if ever.  Even so, it’s a good idea to get to know ‘em.  I tried to limit this list to guys I thought would contribute this year.  Rankings are weighted heavily in terms of realistic 2012 playing time, but I’m factoring each player’s projectable ceiling as well.  I’ll be following this post with my Top 25 Fantasy Prospects for 2013 & Beyond.  That one will run on Sunday.  For now, this:

1.

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Texas Rangers 2011 Minor League Review

Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America:

2011 (15) | 2010 (2) | 2009 (1) | 2008 (4) | 2007 (28) | 2006 (16)

2011 Affiliate Records

MLB: [96-66] AL West

AAA: [87-57] Pacific Coast League – Round Rock

AA: [79-61] Texas League – Frisco

A+: [72-67] Carolina League – Myrtle Beach

A: [79-58] South Atlantic League – Hickory

A(ss): [35-41] Northwest League – Spokane

The Run Down

Being that we’re discussing fantasy baseball here, I feel compelled to focus on the measurables of the players I highlight, and justifiably so; the game we’re playing is based entirely on these calculable elements, after all.  This group of Rangers prospects, however, is difficult to calculate.  We’re dealing with a first-year guy out of Japan, a second-year guy out of Cuba, an 18-year-old, and a handful of promising arms who’ve yet to pan out, production-wise.  There are, of course, some exceptions.  Both Mike Olt and Jurickson Profar impressed in A-ball.  Neil Ramirez had nice marks, too, and De Los Santos struck out, like, everyone.  But for the most part, the numbers here aren’t the attraction.  The potential is the attraction.  That’s not to suggest that I’m not excited about these Texas Rangers prospects.  Actually, I really look forward to tracking this system and I believe it’ll produce significant fantasy value in years to come – 2012 included.

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The Big Donkey, Adam Dunn, was a big ass.  Carlos Quentin’s status is TBD even when we know the ETA which we don’t right now.  This leaves Dayan Viciedo playing.  It’s addition by the subtraction of Ozzie’s choices.  “Can Brent Lillibridge play first and third at the same time?”  Things Ozzie has recently asked his bench coach.  Viciedo was always a top Cuban raftee and, through his first four games, he has a homer, steal and is batting .538.  Maybe we shouldn’t defrost Ted Williams’ head just yet, but you don’t need Mapquest to know he’s going in the right direction.  Not to mention, I’m not even sure Mapquest still exists.  Start a viable service and Google will take you over.  I like your concept, Groupon, I will now do the exact same thing.  With Viciedo’s 3rd base eligibility, he’s worth a flyer anywhere you need a corner infidel.  That’s right, patch Dayan into your team for Golda Meir.  (If you didn’t need to Google that last line, props to you.)  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Jack Hannahan – Perennial Carson favorite hit three homers in two days this week and .420 (stoner!) in August.  Didn’t hurt that he brought his liger to the clubhouse to scare Lonnie Chisenhall.

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With Nelson Cruz hitting the DL (I’ll get to that schmohawk), the Rangers called up Leonys Martin.  Martin could be a poor man’s Desmond Jennings, in other words he’ll be a 2nd ballot Hall of Famer, not 1st.  Martin has breezed through the minor leagues, starting in the Rookie league, jumping to Double-A and finally hitting Triple-A.  It’s called the “Julio Borbon-Endy Chavez-David Murphy Ain’t Doing Shizz From Shinola So We Need A Centerfielder” plan.  Martin has plus-plus speed.  Red Bull says Leonys gives them wings.  He could develop some power down the road, but I wouldn’t expect more than a homer or two with this call-up.  If you need speed in AL-Only or deeper keeper (hey, poet!) mixed leagues, I’d look at him.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Nelson Cruz – Will be out for 3 weeks with his moans over his hammy.  Any Nostradumbass could’ve told you he’d be hurt at some point this year, but, seriously, this guy gets injured at least once every two months.  Let him play the field in a bubble.  He’s now getting a platelet-rich plasma injection to stimulant the healing process.  I think this was the same treatment they gave Caesar in Rise of the Planet of the Apes.

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