Fantasy Baseball Advice

The murmurs of Heath Bell getting traded to another team by July are getting louder.  (BTW, I love the word murmurs.  I really wanted the survivors on Lost to call The Others, The Murmurs.  Wouldn’t that have been awesome?!  Okay, maybe me.)  Prepare for a dozen or so posts titled, “For Whom the Bell Tolls,” at some of our weak sister sites.  And by “weak sister,” I’m talking prison slang and I mean ESPN.  I moved Bell down one whole spot.  I’m not worried in March about someone who might get traded in July.  He will probably drop one or two spots each month until July.  If you get 23 saves, a 1.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 42 Ks in 37 1/3 innings pre-All-Star Break, you’ll be mad you drafted him?  Bee tee dubya, those were his 1st half numbers last year.  Then who knows where he goes.  Maybe Lidge and Madson finally give Manuel a coronary and Bell takes over the closing duties in Philly as Victorino player-manages.  Or maybe Bell goes somewhere else.  You get the picture; it’s still early.  Don’t overestimate-slash-overthink-slash-overrate… Just don’t “over” anything.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan (Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (Hideki Okajima, Daniel Bard)
3. Mariano Rivera (Alfredo Aceves, David Robertson, Joba Hughesberlain)
4. Jonathan Broxton (George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

5. Francisco Rodriguez (+2) (Kelvim Escobar, Eddie Kunz)
6. Heath Bell (-1) (Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson)
7. Carlos Marmol (-1) (Angel Guzman, John Grabow)
8. Joakim Soria (Kyle Farnsworth, Carlos Rosa)
9. Jose Valverde (+1) (Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry)
10. David Aardsma (-1) (Mark Lowe, Chad Cordero)
11. Brian Wilson (Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo)
12. Francisco Cordero (Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset, Jared Burton)
13. Huston Street (Franklin Morales, Rafael Betancourt)
14. Rafael Soriano (J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler)
15. Billy Wagner (Takashi Saito)
16. Brian Fuentes (Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen)
17. Andrew Bailey (Michael Wuertz, Brad Ziegler)
18. Ryan Franklin (Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan)
19. Octavio Dotel (Joel Hanrahan)
20. Leo Nunez (Dan Meyer)
21. Frank Francisco (C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray)
22. Mike Gonzalez (Jim Johnson)
23. Trevor Hoffman (LaTroy Hawkins)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Kerry Wood– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Asdrubal in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

24. Brad Lidge (+3) (Ryan Madson, Danys Baez)
25. Bobby Jenks (-1) (Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz)
26. Matt Capps (-1) (Brian Bruney, Drew Storen)
27. Chad Qualls (-1) (Juan Gutierrez, Bob Howry)
28. Kerry Wood (Chris Perez)
29. Brandon Lyon (Matt Lindstrom, Jeff Fulchino)
30. Jason Frasor/Scott Downs/Kevin Gregg (Jeremy Accardo, The Pigeon That Dave Winfield Killed’s Vengeful Grandson)

Since our last check up no games have been played, but there was movement on the closer rankings.  Was it February Grey getting bored and mixing things up?  Probably, but let’s pretend there’s some logic in my reasoning.  Next to the closers that moved, there’s a plus or minus.   Also, Dotel and Valverde weren’t closers a month ago, so they’ve been added.  I gave you some deets on Dotel.  I went over Valverde in the top 20 closers for 2010 fantasy baseball.  There’s also projections for the top 20 closers.  One other thing, someone in the comments yesterday mentioned how Capps and Dotel were not mock drafted at all.  Sure, mock drafts are wonky.  But I do see this in actual leagues.  All closers should be owned.  If I get to the last three rounds of a draft, I’ll take three more closers on top of the three I already own.  Closers’ value skyrockets once the season starts.  In a ‘pert league on May 1st of last year, I traded Heath Bell and Huston Street for Dan Haren and David Aardsma.  You know when I drafted Bell and Street?  Yeah, end rounds.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan (Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (Hideki Okajima, Daniel Bard)
3. Mariano Rivera (Alfredo Aceves, David Robertson, Joba Hughesberlain)
4. Jonathan Broxton (George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

5. Heath Bell (+1) (Luke Gregerson)
6. Carlos Marmol (+1) (Angel Guzman, John Grabow)
7. Francisco Rodriguez (+1)(Kelvim Escobar, Eddie Kunz)
8. Joakim Soria (-3) (Kyle Farnsworth, Carlos Rosa)
9. David Aardsma (+1) (Mark Lowe, Chad Cordero)
10. Jose Valverde (Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry)
11. Brian Wilson (Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo)
12. Francisco Cordero (+1) (Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset, Jared Burton)
13. Huston Street (-1) (Franklin Morales, Rafael Betancourt)
14. Rafael Soriano (+1) (J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler)
15. Billy Wagner (+1) (Takashi Saito)
16. Brian Fuentes (+1) (Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen)
17. Andrew Bailey (-8) (Michael Wuertz, Brad Ziegler)
18. Ryan Franklin (-4) (Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan)
19. Octavio Dotel (Joel Hanrahan)
20. Leo Nunez (-2) (Dan Meyer)
21. Frank Francisco (-1) (C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray)
22. Mike Gonzalez (-3) (Jim Johnson)
23. Trevor Hoffman (-1) (LaTroy Hawkins)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Kerry Wood– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Asdrubal in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

24. Bobby Jenks (-1) (Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz)
25. Matt Capps (-1) (Brian Bruney, Drew Storen)
26. Chad Qualls (-1) (Juan Gutierrez, Bob Howry)
27. Brad Lidge (-1) (Ryan Madson, Danys Baez)
28. Kerry Wood (-1) (Chris Perez)
29. Brandon Lyon (-1) (Matt Lindstrom, Jeff Fulchino, Jeff Soydoubleshotchino)
30. Jason Frasor/Scott Downs/Kevin Gregg (-2) (Jeremy Accardo, J. Scovin Frasoggs the Third)

The 2010 fantasy baseball rankings have reached the next to next to next to last stop with the top 20 closers for 2010 fantasy baseball.  These top 20 closers are different than all of the other rankings.  The closers on the top of this list you should not draft and there are closers that aren’t on this list that you should be targeting.  Shortly there will be a list of every team’s closer and setup man.  The projections are also a bit wonky since you can’t predict saves.  It’s a fool’s errand.  If fool’s errand means what I think it does.  Some well-known projectionists (not the pimply kid unspooling The Blind Side at your local drive-in who somehow gets the ladies) don’t even attempt to predict saves.  Saves come down to opportunity.  This is yet another reason why you shouldn’t draft the top guys.  Nevertheless, my projections are listed along with where I see tiers starting and stopping.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 closers for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1. Joe Nathan – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here until Broxton.  I call this tier, “These guys will be awesome.  Don’t own them.”  Commandment number one — SAGNOF.  In this case, it’s Saves Ain’t Got No Face.  Means that if Jose Mesa makes a comeback for the Nationals and he’s getting saves, he’s worth owning.  Wherever saves are coming from, they’re good saves.  We do not discriminate.  So why pay for Nathan when there’s, say, Jose Valverde?  (To be continued in Papelbon’s blurb)  2010 Projections:  4-2/1.95/.95/80, 45 saves

2. Jonathan Papelbon – Because, in the end, all you care about is saves.  Sure, a closer with a great ERA and WHIP can help bring down your overall ratios, but unless your luck is terrible you’re not going to have 4 Lidges on your staff.  Besides one decent starter can outweigh the damage of a Matt Capps or Qualls.  Here’s one example where I owned Lidge last year.  (Continued in the Rivera blurb.) 2010 Projections:  2-1/2.05/1.00/75, 45 saves

3. Mariano Rivera – I drafted Lidge and Heath Bell and grabbed Wolf off of waivers.  (This was a 16 team ‘pert league so it was doable in your league too.)  In their combined 342 2/3 innings, I got a 3.54 ERA.  That’s not killing your team.  Sure, if I didn’t have Lidge, it would’ve been better, but even the worst closers aren’t that bad overall.   2010 Projections: 4-1/2.15/1.00/70, 42 saves

4. Jonathan Broxton – His splits were terrible (for his pants), but I think Broxton will be just fine and, frankly, I’m not too concerned because he strikes out so many guys.  2010 Projections: 5-4/2.75/1.05/100, 40 saves

5. Heath Bell – This tier goes from here to the end of the list.  I call this tier, “I need to get 120 saves total to compete, so I’m grabbing as much value as I can.”  As for Bell, maybe it’s the lack of a decent set-up man, maybe it’s the home park, but Bell instills a lot of confidence.  (We should’ve all seen this coming the moment the Mets traded him away for a mint condition Gregg Jefferies rookie card and decided to pay K-Rod 16 billion.)  2010 Projections: 2-3/2.85/1.10/75, 40 saves

6. Carlos Marmol – “Grey, would you please introduce yourself to the group?”  “My name is Grey Albright and I’m a K addict.  Oh, and are there any more crullers?”  2010 Projections: 4-3/3.15/1.30/100, 38 saves

7. Francisco Rodriguez – I had a dilemma ranking K-Rod.  I think he’ll be fine for 40 saves and good enough peripherals, but he always worries me.  Not to mention his K-rate.  What’s up with 12 K/9, 10.1 K/9 and 9.7 K/9 in the last three years?  He should be fine in 2010, but I wouldn’t be surprised in a few years if he becomes iffy as he reaches his 30th birthday.  2010 Projections:  5-2/3.10/1.30/70, 40 saves

8. Joakim Soria – I worry when I see he’s being drafted on average before the 100th pick overall.  Is Soria great?  No doubt, Gwen.  But he still had shoulder issues last year and he’s on the Royals.  2010 Projections: 4-3/2.75/1.12/75, 32 saves

9. David Aardsma – To think I once thought it was a harbinger of doom that you couldn’t spell Aardsma without Double-A.  2010 Projections:  5-3/3.00/1.20/75, 35 saves

10. Jose Valverde – Do I think the Tigers needed The JoVa?  N to the izzo O.  But if he’s healthy, he gets the job done.  He works.  2010 Projections: 4-4/3.15/1.10/70, 35 saves

11. Brian Wilson – Here’s what I said in October, “What I (think) I notice is Wilson is rarely a guy that seems like a sure thing.  I say (think) because it might just be the games I watch.  So this sent me looking at all of the games he closed in 2009.  What I found is my (thought) was correct.  He only recorded 11 three up, three down saves out of 38.  To give you some perspective, Franklin had 14.  Though Wilson was flat-out dominate in the 2nd half (1.64 ERA).”  And that’s me quoting me!  2010 Projections:  4-4/3.35/1.20/75, 37 saves

12. Francisco Cordero – This has nothing to do with Francisco, but whatever happened to Chad Cordero?  First Dontrelle, then Shawn Chacon then Chad Cordero… What a bunch of flat-billed pitchypusses.  F-Cord had a bit of a lucky season last year, but he’s still a lock for 35 saves thereabouts.  BTW, if anyone ever says thereabouts in real life, punch them in their nose.  2010 Projections: 3-5/3.45/1.32/60, 35 saves

13. Huston Street – Street can easily out pitch some of the names above him on this list, but I don’t trust him to stay healthy.  2010 Projections:  3-2/2.85/1.00/55, 25 saves

14. Rafael Soriano – When he pitches, he’s lights out.  The only problem is he has a lot of guys to step in for him when he gets injured.  Could be the number one ranked closer at the end of the year or could be injured in May and lose the job to J.P. Wheelerfour.  2010 Projections: 2-4/2.95/1.05/70, 25 saves

15. Billy Wagner – Wagner seems like a perfect fit for a manager like Bobby Cox.  An Old Boy’s Club, so to speak.  Or not to speak, but to read.  If Wagner can stay healthy, I could see him easily getting to 35 saves.  2010 Projections:  4-3/3.00/1.15/60, 30 saves

16. Brian Fuentes – I have a feeling that the Fuentes/Rodney shituation is going to get worse before it gets better.  The first closer I see losing their job is Bailey, but the second is Fuentes.  2010 Projections:  2-6/4.00/1.35/45, 32 saves

17. Andrew Bailey – Yes, I have Bailey ranked lower than most other ‘perts.  Bailey is great so don’t take this the wrong way, but if he pitches poorly in April he’ll be replaced quicker than you could say, “Wait, I took Bailey as my first closer!”  2010 Projections: 2-3/3.20/1.14/70, 25 saves

18. Ryan Franklin – Probably everyone’s favorite to lose the job first, and it could happen.  Only reassurance I can give you is Tony LaDrunkass trusts in his vets.  2010 Projections:  4-2/3.75/1.25/40, 30 saves

19. Leo Nunez – I know you worry about Nunez, but check out some of the cheap schmohawk closers that have succeeded for the Marlins — Kevin Gregg, Lindstrom, Borowoski and Todd Jones.  A veritable who’s who of what’s-his-faces.  2010 Projections:  2-5/4.00/1.28/60, 32 saves

20. Frank Francisco – This low because he was so frustrating to own last year.  He’s the closer–No, C.J. Wilson is.  He’s closing–No, Wilson still is.  He’s closing– Oh, forget it.  2010 Projections:  3-3/3.95/1.24/50, 25 saves

After the top 20 closers for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s lots of names, but these stand out:

Ryan Madson/Brad Lidge – Lidge is aiming to be ready for the start of the season, but, after last year, Lidge can’t get nearly as many chances to screw up.  Madson hasn’t been great either as a closer so don’t overrate him.  The Phils also brought in Danys Baez to suck.  Madson could get 40 saves, Lidge could get 40 saves, Danys Baez… Well, I won’t go that far.  This could get very ugly or pay huge dividends.  Madson’s 2010 Projections:  6-3/3.75/1.24/80, 18 saves; Lidge’s 2010 Projections:  3-4/4.25/1.34/55, 24 saves

Matt Capps – Yeah, he’s the Nats closer, but whatevs.  I could’ve listed any closer in this last spot and that’s the point.  If a guy is getting saves, you draft them.  I don’t care if your momma’s getting saves, I’m drafting her.  Or worse, Kevin Gregg.  2010 Projections:  Saves

Our first look at closers for the 2010 fantasy baseball season, including some recent movees.  I already went over Billy Wagner to the Braves, Lindstrom to the Astros, Rafael Soriano to the Rays and Capps to the Nats.  Since then, Mike Gonzalez is a movee to Baltimore.  Bobby Cox was unable to get fully behind a lefty cl0ser, but that doesn’t mean Mike Gonzalez can’t find success with the Orioles.  The only major negative with Mike Gonzalez is I have to write out Mike Gonzalez’s entire name every time I mention Mike Gonzalez because it doesn’t sound right any other way.  It’s still real early in the preseason for closers.  Sometimes these battles aren’t decided until the last week of spring training (you still have time, Astros!).  So this is a like a Google Map of closers that might lead you down a road closed for construction.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan (Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (Hideki Okajima, Daniel Bard)
3. Mariano Rivera (Alfredo Aceves, David Robertson, Joba Hughesberlain)
4. Jonathan Broxton (George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

5. Joakim Soria (Kyle Farnsworth, Carlos Rosa)
6. Heath Bell (Luke Gregerson)
7. Carlos Marmol (Angel Guzman, John Grabow)
8. Francisco Rodriguez (Kelvim Escobar, Eddie Kunz)
9. Andrew Bailey (Michael Wuertz, Brad Ziegler)
10. David Aardsma (Mark Lowe, Chad Cordero)
11. Brian Wilson (Jeremy Affeldt)
12. Huston Street (Franklin Morales, Rafael Betancourt)
13. Francisco Cordero (Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset, Jared Burton)
14. Ryan Franklin (Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan)
15. Rafael Soriano (J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler)
16. Billy Wagner (Takashi Saito)
17. Brian Fuentes (Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen)
18. Leo Nunez (Dan Meyer)
19. Mike Gonzalez (Jim Johnson)
20. Frank Francisco (C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray)
21. Joel Zumaya (Ryan Perry)
22. Trevor Hoffman (LaTroy Hawkins)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Kerry Wood– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Asdrubal in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

23. Bobby Jenks (Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz)
24. Matt Capps (Brian Bruney, Drew Storen)
25. Chad Qualls (Juan Gutierrez, Bob Howry)
26. Brad Lidge (Ryan Madson, Danys Baez)
27. Kerry Wood (Chris Perez)
28. Jason Frasor (Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo)
29. Brandon Lyon/Matt Lindstrom (Winner of Radio Phone-In Contest)
30. Joel Hanrahan (Runner-Up To Astros’ Phone-In Contest Winner)

The Rangers landed Rich Harden.  Most years, Harden is all-tease, little reward.  He missed 2006 and 2007 just about completely.  Then he stayed healthy in 2008 and 2009, but you may as well put douche quotes around healthy because he never topped 150 innings.  Harden’s healthy is two-thirds of a season.  He goes to the nurse’s office more than this kid.  Though if you can get two-thirds of a season from Harden, it’s usually the good shizz.  Last year, he was prone to the homer ball like never before, but I think that was just a hiccup.  If Milton Bradley had Derrek Lee’s wingspan, some homers wouldn’t have reached the seats.  I don’t think Texas is going to hurt his value more than a tad.  In 2009, I expect a line of 3.55/1.20/150 in 130 innings.  Anyway, here’s some other trades and signings that went down and their fantasy baseball implications:

Kevin Millwood – To the Orioles.  Average pitcher into the AL East.  Nothing to see here.

Matt Lindstrom – Now with the Astros.  With Valverde and Hawkins gone, Astros brass said, “We feel (Lindstrom) has the capability to be our closer or to at least share those responsibilities.”  Obviously they haven’t seen him pitch.

Brandon Lyon – And I’m assuming the Astros management would say the exact same thing about Lyon.  That he can be their closer or share responsibilities.  This will all get figured out in Spring Training.  Those drafting before have to assume either can be the closer.  My money says Lyon will be the closer.  If you’re wondering what the Astros are thinking with these moves, here’s a sneak peek inside their minds.  Valverde and Hawkins were surprisingly reliable last year…. We need surprisingly unreliable!

Leo Nunez – Now the closer for the Marlins.  Grey became a fan of Leo Nunez and suggested you become a fan too.  Nunez’ll be a sneaky donkey-corn in the preseason.  Could easily see him outperforming his draft position…. Assuming everyone else doesn’t think the same thing and then he suddenly moves up draft boards.

Randy Wolf – To the Brewers.  Loved him last year in Dodgers Stadium, not as much in Miller Park.  In 2009, Miller Park played as a pitcher’s park, but it’s more neutral than that. It’s no Coors, but it’s also no Metco.  Either way, Wolf was fortunate to have a 3.23 ERA last year and probably shouldn’t be counted on for anything below a 3.90.  Ownable, just not terrific.  Why the Brewers felt they needed Wolf like a fat kid needs cake, I’m not sure.

Bobby Crosby – Signed by the Pirates.  You know, I had a conversation with myself like Emeril does and I said, “Self, what do the Pirates need this offseason?”  Self replied with over a hundred different things.  Bobby Crosby was never mentioned.